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Oct. 3, 2022 - Health Ranger - Mike Adams
01:31:47
Financial cycles analyst Aaron Brickman lays out KEY TIMING WINDOW...
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Time Text
All right, welcome, friends.
You are definitely going to want to tune into this interview if you want to have any idea of what may be coming.
I've got a very special first-time guest, but someone that I've listened to.
His name is Aaron Brickman.
And I've heard him on Steve Quayle.
I've heard him on Doug Hagman.
I've seen his interviews around for a couple of months.
And he is an investor slash entrepreneur who is an expert in trading crashes, market crashes.
And he also understands historical and even in some cases biblical cycles and how they apply to market crashes even throughout history and possibly right now.
I'll bring him in in just a second.
I just want to say from the time I heard him about a month ago, The things that he talked about have mostly come true since then.
So he's already got credibility in my mind.
Mr.
Brickman, thank you for joining me tonight.
It's an honor to have you on.
I can't wait to ask you a lot of questions.
Thank you.
Wow.
Well, this is an honor and a privilege.
Thank you, Mike.
This is awesome.
Thank you.
Wow.
No, I mean, the honor's all mine.
I'm just thrilled to have you on because, like I said, I heard you, you know, Steve Quayle and others, and at the time, I have to admit, I was kind of skeptical of some of what you're talking about, market timing and certain days and how things line up in terms of even cosmically alignment.
But, folks, it's not new-agey.
It's not voodoo.
There's a scientific basis behind all this, and since then, so many of those things have come true.
So, Mr.
Brickman, if you were to describe what you're into here, what you do, what's the short version of how you would describe yourself to our audience if this is the first time they've ever heard about you?
So the short version of...
You know, I'm an entrepreneur and I've had some tech companies and some startups.
But what I really, and that's all fun and cool in life, but what my passion is is the markets, trading the markets, but not day trading.
I tried that in 2000, 2001, I was terrible at it.
What I really was impassionate about is trading high volatility, what we refer to as market crashes, what the public knows as market crashes.
So I was short for 2000, 2001, 9-11 crash.
I was short for the 08 crash.
That was the one I was really good at.
I was definitely short for the 2015 August surprise crash that caught most traders off guard.
Because that historically has never happened.
So yeah, this one I've been looking forward to for a couple years because this has the potential to be the mother of all crashes.
Now, as you, at least as I understand from your previous interviews, each of these crashes you just mentioned, and also I think going back to the 1987 Black Monday, that was in October.
Was that October 19th?
Is that when that was?
Yes.
Okay, good.
My memory hasn't failed me yet.
That's great.
No, you're all over it.
Okay, great.
And many others.
They all share some common traits, and you have studied those common traits.
Can you give us a little clue of what some of those commonalities have been?
Yes.
And I have not pioneered this work.
I am a voracious reader, and so this is nothing as original.
What I'm about to say is not I didn't come up with it.
I'm not that smart.
So, a gentleman by the name of Chris Carolyn wrote a paper that won the Dow Theory Award.
It's a fantastic paper.
And what it noted was that the 29 and 87 and then the 1997 Asian contagion.
Too big to fail, the very first one.
Right.
All had the same signature.
And the same signature was that they all bottomed.
The panic bottomed on the same lunar date.
Okay.
Which is, what are the odds of that?
When you say lunar date, you're talking about the 28-day moon cycle?
Yeah, well, it gets a little bit more complicated than that.
To get into the autumn panic, you take the spring equinox, you count forward seven new moon cycles, and on the 28th day of that new moon, that seventh month new moon cycle, is the panic bottom in 29, 87, 97, and it ended up being again in 2008.
Now, does the spring equinox, remind me, does that fall on a particular part of the lunar cycle, or could that be anywhere in the lunar cycle?
I'm not.
That's going to be above my pay grade.
It shifts.
Usually, that whole thing is, it shifts around.
It definitely is not stationary, you know, each time in the month of March.
Okay, that makes sense.
There's a pretty wide variance so that, for example, 1929, that date was October 29th.
But in 1987, it was October 19th.
Right.
That's a full 10 days.
Okay.
So the fact that four crashes...
bottomed on that exact lunar date is, I mean, I don't know what the odds are on that.
It's pretty fantastic.
So here's something interesting already is that so in America, we're on the Gregorian calendar.
I mean, that's the Western world calendar now for a while.
But you're talking about the lunar calendar.
You know, my wife is from Taiwan.
And in Chinese culture, they actually count the lunar calendar.
They follow the lunar calendar.
So I'm actually familiar with following the lunar calendar because there are certain religious holidays that depend on that.
And I know that Chinese people, at least the ones I know, follow the lunar calendar more closely than the Gregorian.
But...
This may explain why this has been hidden from so many people, because the dates always look different in the Gregorian calendar, even though it would be the same lunar date if you were looking at a lunar calendar.
Is that correct?
Correct.
And this explains why on that previous broadcast I had talked about its relationship with the Jewish calendar, which is also lunar-based.
Okay.
And so, again, that...
That's why even the average trader is not aware of what we're talking about right now, I guarantee you.
And the guys on Wall Street that understand this, I've been contacted and said, well, where can I read books about this?
Where can I read articles?
I'm like, well, nobody in their right mind is publishing this.
This is worth its weight in gold.
So, what, yeah, I imagine like a traditional Wall Street guy would say what, they would dismiss it, oh, this is some kind of weird numerology or something, but it's not that at all.
What is the...
Throughout human history, I know of some other scientists and writings of scientists, like, for example, John Worrell Keeley, that talked about the power of the moon, moon phases and moonlight.
And of course, we know the word lunatic comes from lunar, which is the full moon changes people's psychology.
So Even without asking you this, but that's my next question.
I know there's a scientific basis for changes in human psychology, and I know that markets represent human psychology in terms of their movement.
So what is the basis, you think, for why such powerful market moves would take place on such common dates?
So I talked about Chris Carolyn, who wrote The Autumn Panics and established this.
Steve Pitts, he's a professor I believe out in Hawaii right now, but he has been credited with discovering that all panics had a signature in that they all occurred around a solar eclipse.
They had to occur within six weeks of a solar eclipse.
And that the panic phase, which is a panic phase to be very specific in all these crashes, is about a 12 to 15 trading day period, that that occurs at a full moon within six weeks of a solar eclipse.
And that, I have back-checked that all the way into the crashes, almost all the crashes in the fall in the 1800s, including, well, actually into the 1700s fit.
That signature.
So now you're starting...
And he wrote a book called The Unified...
I think it's called The Unified Theory.
It's a very weighty, scientific, scholarly book.
And he's trying to address your question.
And it's not an easy...
There's not an easy answer.
And he comes up...
I think he identifies five forces.
Some nuclear, some electrical...
Getting into the planets in motion and gravitation as part of it that are affecting bodies of water.
And since the human mind is mostly a body of water, it begins to explain why you can see this ebb and flow and this panic kick in, like you referred to about the word lunatic around full moons.
Because really all investing is really an oscillation between fear and greed.
That's really all it is.
It's highly emotional and even more so when you get into a crash.
Have you ever heard of the Allais effect associated with solar eclipses?
It's spelled A-L-L-A-I-S. I don't believe I have.
Tell me about that.
Okay, so the Allais effect...
Which has been rigorously documented in conventional scientific circles by the way.
It has been noted that pendulums Which scientists have traditionally used very tall pendulums to measure the rotation of the Earth in real time as it's happening.
But pendulums, they have a precession as the Earth rotates.
The pendulum appears to precess around the perimeter of the circle that it is describing.
But during a solar eclipse, the precession reverses.
The pendulum on its own begins.
It's continuing to swing back and forth, but the angle of its swinging moves in the opposite direction during the eclipse.
And this has been so baffling to mainstream scientists.
They've actually had multiple labs around the world to replicate this and document it.
And it's even documented on Wikipedia, by the way.
Right.
Yeah, I'm just looking it up right now.
See, that confirms what you just said.
There are changes in gravity that happen during a solar eclipse.
No joke.
That's been documented.
Yeah, well, that brings us to where we're at, because we have a solar eclipse on Tuesday, October 25th.
Oh, wow.
Now, that solar eclipse is in the exact position relative to, I'm going to call it the dark days because that's what...
Let me be specific.
Chris Carolyn calls that specific lunar date the dark day.
Because that's the bottom of a market crash.
That's when the panic reaches its zenith.
You're talking about the seventh one after the spring equinox?
Correct.
Okay, and what date does that fall on in our calendar this year?
That is going to be Friday, October 21st.
But the eclipse is after that.
Correct.
So what does that mean?
It means, so in 1929, the eclipse was exactly in the same position as it's going to be this year.
Are you saying geographically it falls on the same area of land?
It's going to be falling...
It's going to be falling four days after the dark day.
In 1929, it was four days, I believe it was four days, three days after the dark day.
Okay.
So, what occurred two weeks prior to that solar eclipse was Was obviously a full moon.
That happens every month.
So that's exactly when the panic on Wall Street began in 1929.
At that full moon?
At that full moon.
So that would put a panic at what?
The 7th?
The window for the panic.
So...
Steve Pitts comes along and he notes that, and this is the exact rule, that the markets begin to panic six days before to three days after a full moon that occurs within six weeks of a solar eclipse.
So when people were thinking that we were going to crash in June, I looked at the chart like, no way, can't happen.
Why?
Well, there's not a solar eclipse nearby.
Okay.
So...
We're there now.
So this window, this gets really interesting.
The window for the beginning of the panic opens up on this coming Wednesday, which is Yom Kippur.
And wait, Wednesday being, let me give a calendar date for people listening, the 5th, October 5th.
Correct.
That's when, according to Steve Pitts' own work, the window opens for a panic.
I see.
So when you're hearing rumors about Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse this weekend...
Oh yes, which we did.
Oh my goodness.
Okay, I'm going, I'm looking at my calendar going, well, this is timely.
And when does that window, how far does that window extend?
That window would extend also through to mid-November.
Mid-November's full moon happens to, which I can give you the date on that.
We're talking the 8th.
So actually Election Day.
Oh, my goodness.
Okay.
That is going to be a lunar eclipse.
Okay.
Okay.
So these full moons, you will, every panic, every panic in the market, you will be able to find a full moon that is the trigger.
Huh.
Oh.
It's as if conditions are set, but there's not a psychological trigger until the full moon somehow comes along?
You're...
So let's say that they're being agitated.
Whatever is happening at a physical level is, I would say, is the final trigger.
It's pushing...
You know, you can have...
And you see this all the time on Wall Street.
Bad news is good news.
Good news is bad news.
Sometimes bad news is bad news.
I mean, it really is however they want to play it, right?
It's really not about the news.
So, this is very counterintuitive to the average investor because they actually pay attention to the numbers, but the numbers really are meaningless.
What matters is how the street reacts to it.
Yes.
And so, the reaction can be extremely, not just negative, but it can be overdone, let's say, around full moons.
And you see this with police.
You see this when you talk to school teachers.
You know, there's a sense of excitement in the classroom.
There's a sense of increased crime around full moons.
And so that's what you're witnessing in markets, too, is, let's just say, an excitability.
Okay, which would accentuate some organic reaction.
Yeah, it accentuates.
Sometimes, yeah, and under normal conditions, like in bull markets, it's accentuating rallies.
Okay, so this works both ways.
Good point, yeah.
When you've got a negative position in the markets like we are building up to right now, and then you start taking Chris Carolyn's work and Steve Pitts' work, and then you look at where we're at on the Jewish calendar, and you look at what I talked about on the last broadcast, which is the position of the markets, meaning where we're at over the totality of this year.
We've got reference points, we've got benchmarks that we're looking at, and they're quite negative.
And you've got a historical comparison because of how bad the bond market's been performing the last three quarters, as well as the stock market.
I mean, you've got all these conditions, so you've got context is what I'm saying.
We're not just talking about this comes out of the blue.
Now, it can come out of the blue, Like it did in 1929 where you're at an all-time high and 40 days later you've crashed or the same thing in 1987.
But traditionally, what's more historically on average, like 2008 or even the 2001 crash, is you've been in a bear market in both those instances for well over a year.
True, yeah.
Okay.
You're chipping away at the investor psychology day in and day out, and you get them to a point kind of like, you know, water torture where they just can't take it anymore and everybody heads for the exit on the same day.
And while we haven't been in a bear market for a year, we've been in a very deep, this is one of the deepest corrections that In the shortest amount of time.
We've been at this less than 10 months.
We just concluded the ninth month.
And there's no end in sight.
I mean, there's no good...
I mean, I talked to Bond.
I mean, everybody's in awe because there is no good news on a daily basis.
Right.
It's just more money printing.
That's the answer to everything.
And it's not working.
It's pushing the strings.
Absolutely.
In fact, it's making it worse, but that's a whole nother.
Right.
Well, and when I was hearing the news over the weekend, actually starting Friday, about the near collapse of the pension system in England, or in the United Kingdom, affecting the Bank of England and the government, they're panicking and saying, oh, we're going to print whatever money is necessary and buy up all the pension bonds.
I was thinking of you and this interview and wondering...
Maybe the world is going to beat you to your own analysis.
Like, it might fall apart before we even get to some of these days.
But we'll see.
I mean, sometimes they can hang together a little longer.
Yeah, I think they...
All of this...
And you know, Mike, history rhymes.
It doesn't repeat, but it certainly is rhyming.
And...
Everything has a...
It's all about timing.
It's all...
And it's preponderance of evidence.
It's that last snowflake on the mountain that triggers that avalanche, right?
It's that...
And you don't exactly know how much accumulation has to take place, but we're getting there.
And I'm kind of marveling at the whole situation because it's like the beginning of October.
We haven't even really given the stuff you've been reporting and others have been reporting about where Europe is headed this fall.
Does anybody really think they're getting out of this alive?
And I should mention, for the record, I neglected to do this, but you and I are recording this on late evening October 2nd.
So whatever happens in the next five weeks, you know, folks, keep in mind, this is October 2nd.
That we're having this conversation.
Now, may I call you Aaron, by the way?
Is that okay?
Absolutely.
No, my dad is Mr.
Brickman.
Okay.
Well, my question, Aaron, is when was the last time these same conditions aligned in this way in history?
I would say that this is as perfect as to 1929 as we've ever been.
Certainly when I study calendars...
So, I said this on a prior broadcast, and I'll say it here.
I liken all of this to a multi-combination lock.
If you get three out of four of the numbers, it's not going to open.
You have to get all of this.
And what are the pieces that have to be present?
Well, we talked about Chris Carroll and the dark days, okay?
You also have to then locate solar eclipses, lunar full moons...
That all has to be present as well.
And that's not present every year where it should be.
In fact, we go years without this occurring.
You then need, you know, Steve Pitts has established the solar eclipses and the full moons.
Then one thing I've neglected we haven't talked about is Arch Crawford, who was a famous guy on Wall Street.
And what he discovered was the Mars Uranus cycle, which we won't get into tonight.
But be that as it may, the Mars Uranus cycle at opposition.
Every crash in the 20th century had it in opposition to a certain degree.
OK, so we're not talking just, you know, some, you know, wide spectrum.
And so, 2987, all the crashes, even the 73 bear market, I mean, all of these were fitting that.
That window, by the way, opened up for a crash in December, and that will close this December.
Okay, meaning we're not going to have it.
People keep saying we're going to have a crash in 2023.
I don't see it because of what he has pioneered, In addition to that, you've got a Saturn-Uranus square that we might want to talk about real quick, and we can go through this really briefly, but Saturn-Uranus square occurs every 45 years.
Two of those make a 90-year cycle.
Those have marked in 1842 That occurred at the bottom of the 1836 to 1842 depression, mini depression.
That saw the market lose, I believe it was 80% of its value.
You then had two cycles later, it occurred in 1932, which was the bottom of the Great Depression.
That cycle saw the market lose 90% of its value.
Yeah, go ahead.
Well, you're talking about planets.
So a couple of things come to mind.
I understand the moon is really close to us, and the moon pulls oceans, and that's how we have tides.
And the moon is visible, right?
There's light.
Sunlight reflected off the moon that reaches us.
And I can see that there's a lot of influence, obviously, from the moon on us and even farmers and they'll plant crops based on moon cycles and it really works and so on.
But these distant planets, you're talking about Uranus and so on, do you have any, or are you saying that You don't know the mechanism.
You're just observing the patterns, but you're not going to take a stab at the mechanism.
How could Uranus affect us that far away?
I think that's going to get into electrical discharge that is constantly flooding the planet, as well as nuclear forces.
And Steve Pitts would talk about that as well.
My concern with the planets, I am definitely not into astrology, and I'm certainly not a scientist.
What I do know occurs on Wall Street, because they have computers and all this, is all they're looking for, they don't really care the reason why.
They're looking for the fact that, hey look, If all the crashes in the last 200 years fit this certain lunar and solar configuration, you might want to pay attention.
If it all has to have a Mars-Uranus opposition, we don't understand why, but something's going on.
If they all now are fitting, if the last two biggest Great Depressions, biggest depressions in U.S. financial history, all bottomed, Literally both bottomed at the exact time Saturn was squaring Uranus.
I mean, what are the...
They don't have to understand it.
And trust me, they have computers way more sophisticated than you and I so that they can keep track of all of this and look forward to it in the future.
Okay?
Sure.
Where it takes us kind of by surprise.
So I just say that to say that this year is another Saturn squaring Uranus.
And we won't get that for another 45 years.
Okay, so now you're dealing with 90-year cycles in the market.
And so here's where it gets even more interesting.
The peak of that Saturn squaring Uranus is going to where we are within one degree of a perfect square aspect is going to occur between Monday and October 3rd and Thursday the 6th.
So let's put this together.
We've got Saturn squaring Uranus, which was present in the last two depression bottoms of the market.
That is going to reach its zenith this week.
At the same time, we're going to enter into a full moon window within six weeks of a solar eclipse, so there could be a panic taking place in the next couple of days.
And then that brings us to our last piece of the puzzle, which is the Jewish calendar.
The Jewish calendar was lunar-based, right?
So we're not switching gears.
We're looking at...
Right.
I want to be clear, just to the honest, you're not citing the Jewish calendar because of some Old Testament God intervention power.
You're saying these Jewish holidays, like Yom Kippur and so on, were founded on lunar cycles.
Correct.
And solar cycles, I suppose, yes.
Correct.
So, in 1929...
The bottom of...
So when we get into markets move in cycles, they move in waves.
All of life is energy, so it's always moving in waves.
I know a lot of your audience will understand that.
So to get a crash, you have to have a very large down movement first, and then you have to have what's called a retracement, and it moves in waves, just kind of like the ocean.
And it uses that energy.
Think of the wave leaving the shore, and it's using that energy again for the next incoming wave.
And so we had that.
We had an initial move down from January to June.
We then had what's called a Wave 2 retracement up into August.
And so when I called for what has transpired over the course of September, August and September, that we'd go back down and retest the June low by Friday, September 23rd, that was the easy part.
I've told other people, you know, people have been like kind of in awe that I was able to do that.
I'm like, dude, that was nothing compared to what we're trying to do here.
That was like, I mean, that's...
Okay, I got onto a first base.
Don't get too excited.
I haven't made a home run yet.
You did call that for the audience.
I want the audience to know you absolutely called that because I heard your interview before September 23rd.
Weeks before.
Yeah, I think I made that on August 25th.
That sounds about right.
Yeah.
So that wasn't easy.
But here's why I say it was easy.
I say it was easy because if you know what I'm talking about and what we're talking about here...
Literally, if I pulled up a chart and I started walking people visually through this, and I did that with Doug Heckman and Steve Quayle over the weekend, and literally in about 10 minutes, they're like, oh, oh my gosh.
It's kind of like seeing is believing.
It's kind of hard sometimes to conceptualize this, but you see it.
I mean, I pulled up a 1929 chart.
I pulled up an OA chart, and they're looking at the exact same formations.
And they're going, oh my gosh, you're getting a complete repeat on the charts and on calendars, separated by decades in time.
Yes, but let me bring in something that I think is highly relevant here.
And also, I forgot to give out your Twitter handle.
It is A.G. Brickman.
B-R-I-C-K-M-A-N. So, folks, if you want to follow Aaron Brickman on Twitter, that's it.
A.G. Brickman.
But, Aaron, I... See, there's a lot of people who do just a technical analysis, like Elliott Wave Theory analysis, whatever.
And that doesn't necessarily, by itself, it doesn't necessarily have strong predictive value, although it can be very good at understanding what just happened.
I think you're all over that, because I've studied that for 20 years, and that alone will not get you to the dance.
Right.
But you're combining, then, this fundamental cosmic cycles with technical analysis.
That's what I was trying to get to.
And that gives you the advantage of both of those worlds, I think.
You have to...
I believe that all of life is governed by time locks.
And what I mean by that is I just believe that everything is governed by time.
Gann, who was a famous technician on Wall Street in the 30s, said, you know, what is more important, price or time?
And he said time, because when time is up, price will reverse.
And he pioneered a lot of what we're talking about, even going back to the 30s.
What he understood is that whether you understand what is the cause or not, there's a time and season for everything.
There's a time and season for peace.
There's cycles of war.
There's cycles for pandemics.
There's cycles for earthquakes.
There's cycles throughout history, throughout all aspects of life.
And what we're talking about is cycles that govern fear and greed as it relates to investment decisions and assets and a misallocation of capital, which is what we've experienced over the last decade.
And so, yeah, I'm really, my real quest, because I got into Elliott Wave, which I'm glad you're familiar with, I got into Elliott Wave and that was a missing piece of the puzzle, but it wasn't the whole thing, because like you said, a lot of that is cloud watching.
You can kind of make it Kind of make it appear whatever you want to see in it.
Right.
I've seen some people take charts and then draw lines on it.
I'm like, well, I could have drawn different lines.
I mean, you know what I mean?
Yeah, I can definitely do that, and there's better technicians than others.
But again, a lot of this stuff is you're building a case.
And that's why when I was on that August 25th broadcast, You know, I was very careful to choose my words, and I still am, to say, look, I have a hypothesis, and I know you as a scientist like that, because I'm not going to come out here and, you know, I'm not all-knowing.
I'm not clairvoyant.
I'm not going to predict the future.
That's not what I'm here for.
I can look at the science of the times, and I can have a hypothesis, but then I need to create some tests.
I need to validate this theory.
And you do that, especially when you're dealing with something like a crash, you can have mile markers along the way that will tell you whether you're completely crazy or whether you're on the right track.
Go ahead and finish that thought, but then that brings up a really important question I wanted to ask you, but go ahead.
So here's where we're at.
Saying in August when we were at $34,000, That we were going to be at 29,500 by September 23rd was the easy part.
It gets way harder from here because now it has to really start aligning and pivoting very quickly in a span of three weeks.
There's going to be a number of mile markers that it has to hit along the way.
Because the hypothesis is that we're going to have the crash concluded by Friday the 21st.
So we're talking three weeks.
Gee, right.
That's not much time.
Yeah, there's no time.
And so the margin for error, right?
You know, you can have sloppy football in the first 90 yards, but you get, you know, first and goal within 10 yards.
Everything's tight.
Yes.
There's no margin for error.
You've got to be precise with your paths, precise running, all that kind of stuff.
So that's where we're at, is where the rubber is about to hit the road, and we're going to find out, you know.
We have the astrological conditions.
We have solar conditions.
We have the Elliott wave, by the way, is...
All the guys I follow that are good at technical are saying there's no more margin to the downside.
Like, this thing is on a knife's edge.
I kid you not, Mike.
It's on a knife's edge.
We're not going to go down another thousand and that's it on the Dow.
They lose the support level and it's all over.
Right, right.
Well, gosh, we're certainly hearing a lot of signs of that from Europe right now, the European banks.
But here's what I wanted to ask you, a couple of questions.
You mentioned mile markers.
So let's assume that the underlying model of what's going on here is that there is a psychological accentuation of human emotions, both greed and fear and whatever else people are processing, right?
And that these emotions are accentuated.
Wouldn't that also then be seen in terms of monitoring the news?
Wouldn't we see more fistfights or more car crashes or more, I don't know, whatever, when people lash out more arrests for, you know, Florida man fill in the blank, right?
You always see those headlines.
Florida man ran naked on the boardwalk with an alligator.
Wouldn't we see more crazy things like that also if this psychological underpinning is expressing itself?
That's a fantastic question.
That really is a great question.
And maybe that correlation does exist.
Nobody's just looked at it.
Yeah, I mean, that's a fantastic question.
All I know, I mean, there's not a lot I know.
All I know is that nothing gets, I would argue this, especially in the 21st century America, Nothing, and even in the 20th century, especially the American experience, nothing gets us more...
There's nothing like fear and greed.
There's nothing...
And I'm talking fear and greed as it relates to money.
Right, right.
The fear of losing everything you've ever earned and saved.
And we're not talking about five grand.
We are talking about trillions.
Okay.
I mean, I think what was the number released over the weekend?
We've already destroyed 40 trillion this year in wealth.
Oh, yeah.
I forgot.
Yeah, I saw that headline.
I forgot the number, but yes.
So, I mean, so I really don't care that you cut me off in traffic.
You blow up my 401k?
That's a different story.
Right.
And I think right now, especially with as stressed as everybody has been over the last year or two, this is just going to be the icing on the cake.
This is going to be that last snowflake that pushes people over.
Now, what I will say to you, that's a great question.
I think that this has the potential...
I've had a lot of people ask me over the couple of years, in fact, it's been a kind of debate between some of my friends, you know, will the American people ever get off the couch and protest anything anymore?
Good question.
Or are they so heavily medicated at this point that they just don't care?
And without going into a long conversation on that, I will say that I think this has the potential of Being that trigger that gets people very active over the rest of this year and going into next year.
Even way more so than 08, just because of where we're at in history and where we're at in the political and historical cycles.
Well, this brings up another question I want to ask you, which is about the November 8th election.
So if, in fact, there is a significant downward movement in markets before that election...
you would think that that would have a strong impact because, you know, against the Democrats and in favor of Republicans, because, you know, the voters tend to blame the current party in power for, you know, whatever bad things are happening to them.
And right now they're trying to afford groceries.
It's like groceries and gasoline and rent.
And if they're losing money on top of that, even if it's a small amount to you and me, it might be a significant portion of what they had put away for a younger person that could be psychologically very damaging.
Wouldn't this have massive impacts on elections that pollsters would never capture because pollsters obviously are not able to ask people questions for something that hasn't yet happened.
Yeah.
And pollsters are always weeks behind, right?
So the question being, Mike, I'm sorry.
Well, the question being that if what you're talking about comes true, then this could change history.
I mean, it could radically reshape the makeup of not just the House, but the Senate, which has major implications for the future of the United States of America and censorship and election integrity and immigration, all kinds of things.
I mean, this is a cosmically historical pivot point, potentially, wouldn't you say?
I think we are going into some of the most extreme parts of...
I think we're entering into, without getting into cycles in history right now, I think we're going into...
I'll use a euphemism.
I like to use the word dynamic.
It's going to be a dynamic period in history.
And we have not been living in a dynamic period in history, but we might find ourselves in that period very shortly.
And what I mean by that is that we have so many cycles, whether it's war cycles or, gosh, we've got 500-year cycles that are cresting right now, that the world is not the world.
And I knew this as soon as COVID took place.
I told my friends, We're never going back.
And I said, what do you mean?
I mean, like, the very next day.
We're not going back.
What do you mean we're not going back?
I said, this is our 9-11.
What do you mean?
I said, this is bigger than 9-11.
I said, you're never going back the day after 9-11.
We're not going back after COVID. We are on a ride to a destination, and the forces, you can call it good and evil, you can call it the god and the devil, you can call it the elite in mankind.
There is a clash of two kingdoms that is coming, and this is just another spark.
To add to that fire that is going to be engulfing the world.
And it's going to be east, west.
You're covering these dynamics.
So, yes.
Is this going to be...
Is a potential crash going to have historical and earth-shattering events, not just in the United States, but in Europe?
I would say so.
It's going to be a question of...
The real question is, I mean, obviously we need to see a crash if this hypothesis is correct, but let's assume that there is a crash.
It's then going to be up to we, the people.
What are we going to do with that?
Are we just going to go back to business as usual, and are we going to allow them to print more money?
I mean, when is enough enough?
And we're getting to a point where...
We, the people, are going to have to have an adult conversation and hold ourselves and our elected leaders to account.
Because if we do not, this experiment is not going to last in perpetuity.
I'm really glad that you brought that up.
Let me take us into what I think is the final chapter of this interview, but maybe the final chapter of Western Civilization as well.
Do you have a few more minutes?
Can you stay?
Absolutely.
It seems to me that Western civilization, let's say Western Europe and the United States and other Western countries, are already on the edge of insolvency, but in more ways than one.
So we've become a hyper-financialized virtual money, virtual financial instruments type of civilization.
We have moved away from commodities and manufacturing into financial instruments and consumerism.
We've become what Putin describes as the empire of lies, which you can't really disagree with that.
Everything that comes out of the White House is a lie.
You know, even under the Obama administration as well.
And then other articles over the weekend, I think one was from Bloomberg, that Western nations have run out of munitions because they ship so much to Ukraine.
Even the HIMARS rocket systems that Biden just promised, there's like 18 more HIMARS, they haven't been made yet.
So the company that makes them has to start manufacturing them, and they will be delivered to Ukraine sometime in 2025.
They say, like, really?
This is your plan?
And I'm thinking that...
We are one financial catastrophe away from the collapse of this Western civilization system, or at least the criminal cartel government layer that is at war with reality through financial instruments and even the transgenderism push on children, but also at war with their own people.
Now, we've seen labeling everybody an extremist, or in Germany, they're deploying police onto the streets to stop the civil unrest and so on.
So I guess my question to you, Aaron, is couldn't this be way, way beyond just a market event?
This could be a civilization-level gut check here that's coming.
So that's a great question.
So...
What I tell people is, if it's a stock market crash, the short answer is no.
I don't think it affects civilization.
However, 2008, we were four hours away from martial law.
Yeah, right.
That's right.
Because...
It quickly turned in to a global contagion and literally letters of credit for international shipping and banking on the high seas were being revoked.
So global trade was literally hours away from coming to a complete halt.
So that would get into what you're talking about.
And that's where, look, the stock market, and I tell people this whole time, the stock market is nothing.
A couple trillion.
The bond market?
Well, the bond market is like five or six times the size of the stock market.
And then you get to the currency markets, which is where the central banks play.
But the debt market is what's falling apart right now in England.
Correct.
And so, correct.
And you're seeing...
The British pound, and you're seeing the Euro.
And we haven't even gotten to winter in Europe.
That's right.
This is completely separate from the geopolitical circus that's been taking place.
We now have the financial house being set on fire.
Right.
With cold weather still yet to come in months.
Right.
How old weather, and not to mention any troop movement that's taking place in the Baltics, Kaliningrad, and all over that we won't get into tonight, but there is a massive amount of troop movement taking place.
So, you know, everything is, everybody is being invited to the party.
And they seem to be showing up.
So, could this quickly, and this gets into the election, so...
This is not a prediction.
This is the stuff that will keep people up at night.
If you see, see, this gets into a stock market crash.
A stock market crash in 1987, 2008, and 2020 were all the same percent within 1% variance.
I think it was 35%.
Yeah, that's a typical stock market crash.
1929 was 45%.
This, right now, has the potential to exceed 1929.
I kid you not.
But we are far more leveraged today than in 1929.
The banks have far more interdependencies, and I know you know this, than 1929.
I mean, the risk of contagion is orders of magnitude higher than 1929.
Correct.
And I will know...
I will have a pretty good idea of how bad it's going to be.
We talked about these mile markers along the way towards October 21st.
I will have a pretty good idea on October 10th and October 14th of where we will be at on October 21st.
And it's all because of Fibonacci math, which I won't get into how that works in stock market crashes, but I could prove my case if I needed to, that you can be very accurate in knowing where the bottom is based upon Fibonacci.
So I'll be doing that on October 10th and 14th and have a more refined target of how bad is October 21st.
If we're in a crash, how bad does that look like?
But to your point, absolutely, and that's what I was maintaining in the August 25th broadcast, is this thing could be way bigger than 1929.
Right now, that's where I'm leaning towards, is that this is going to be the mother of all crashes.
And why do I bring that up?
I bring that up because we have the potential, unlike 2008, because people remember what I just said.
2008 was a standard 35% crash, and it almost brought down the entire system.
Right, and that crash was, it originated in the housing sector.
I mean, it was kind of contained.
Well, it was contained because the Fed at that time could, you know, loan Europe $20 trillion and they could do all kinds of stuff, you know, behind the scenes and contain this for quite a long time.
And keep in mind, Mike, it was the U.S. This was not Europe, okay?
This was not Europe burning to the ground and then the U.S. following.
Right.
We were leading the 08 crisis.
That's true.
This is a global financial crisis right now.
But right now, Europe seems to be leading at least a lot of concerns about volatility.
So what would you say to somebody who says, hey, Aaron, there's no way U.S. markets would crash.
Look, the dollar is strong.
Investors are fleeing Europe.
Everybody's getting out of, frankly, out of the European banking system.
You're correct.
They are fleeing Europe and they're fleeing the banking system.
But apparently they're not buying stock on Wall Street.
I wonder what they are buying.
Treasuries and gold?
Right.
I mean, look, you can have...
I'm not arguing that they're selling British pounds, euros, and treasuries over there, but they're not running to the stock market in the U.S. In the stock market, I'm not going to get into how precarious that position is with the misallocation of capital, as well as what a rising dollar does to You know, the Fortune 500 companies who have an export market.
Oh my goodness, yeah.
They're getting just clobbered.
Yeah.
Okay, so this is not good for the stock market.
So let's go one further.
Let's assume that the stock market beats out 35% to the downside, which is 08s, and we do a 1929 or greater.
I don't think we're going to do a 1929, by the way.
I think we're either going to hold the line at 35% Or this is going to unravel into the mother of all crashes.
Okay?
So I don't think we're going to do 29.
I think we're going to far exceed 29 if this thing lets loose.
So at that point...
And because everything happens right now at a much faster rate, right, communications and technological innovation allow more change to occur at lightning speed versus the 1920s and 30s.
It's been, you know, established.
That we don't have to have a two, like in 29, you had the stock market crash.
They tried to bring it back for six months.
And then really 30, it rolled over.
But it wasn't really until 31 and 32 where you got into a banking crisis.
So you had a year and a half, a good year and a half before You really started to see thousands of banks go under.
Dude, we're talking, this is going to take about 10 minutes.
Right, because information spreads much more quickly now.
This is, and because the real problem isn't Wall Street, it's at the banking level, okay?
And it's really at the central bank level.
Let me ask you this, though.
Since 1929, a lot of other circuit breakers and things have been implemented into the markets.
You would imagine that if the market starts to go south, they would just close the markets.
And then if the bank runs begin, they would just close the banks, which, by the way, has happened in China recently.
You know, after the property Ponzi scheme, they just close the banks.
Oh, you can't have your money.
Or they convert your deposits into investment vehicles and say, yeah, you can have, you know, $1,000 a month for 100 years or whatever.
Yeah, I don't think they're going to do that.
And here's why.
And this will either make me super popular or unpopular.
Okay, get ready, folks.
Here it comes.
I think they're crashing this by design.
Ah, you think they want this as part of the reset?
Okay, so let's connect some dots.
You've got the Fed who has been talking the markets down all year long.
Only there's one problem.
Wall Street doesn't believe what the Fed is telling them the Fed is going to do to them.
Yeah, true.
Okay, this is hilarious.
We've never seen this before.
For 20 years, they've believed that the Fed, you know, it's called the Fed put, that the Fed has their back.
And I always laugh because I'm like, oh, the Fed has your back like they had your back in 08?
Right.
Oh, the Fed has your back like they had in March of 2020?
I mean, people need to think about what they're saying.
Okay?
And stop giving omnipotence to these guys and stop thinking these are the good guys.
However, the Fed always finds a way for history to record That they were there to save the system.
Yeah, even if they have to remake history.
We are the champions.
Right?
So, this is classic good cop, bad cop.
Right?
So, look, if the Fed pivots now, if the Fed stands down, we'll be at new all-time highs on the stock market within months.
I kid you not.
Okay?
I mean, if they reverse and just go back to quantitative easing and just mad money printing and flooding everything?
We will go vertical.
Yeah.
We'll go vertical.
And if you think this was, you know, a mess, wait until the next one.
I mean, you can only print money and kick the can so long.
Now, here's the deal.
Do not underestimate these guys to change the rules, break the rules, make up new rules, kick the can, print money.
I keep warning people...
They're not omnipotent, but the minute you disrespect these guys, they'll take all your money.
Okay?
Yeah, they're ruthless.
I have seen the impossible on Wall Street.
Okay?
So you have to have great respect.
They're very dangerous.
So...
I don't think the Fed wants the high stock market.
They've got to get this thing under control.
They've got to get, you know, the affordability issues in the United States.
There's a number of issues.
Now, we can argue about how they're going about doing it, and we would have some legitimate complaints as far as interest rates and all that is concerned.
However, they're the ones that created this monster on Wall Street over the last 20 years.
So the chickens are coming home to roost.
So you can't feel too bad for them.
Well, you said earlier, and this is so massive in its implications, you said that everybody gets invited to the party.
And I think you're right.
It's just that, you know, you show up, turns out it's not a costume party.
It's a suicide vest party.
Everybody's wearing a suicide vest and they're all waiting for you to show up to detonate, you know?
But there's a famous saying on Wall Street, he who panics first wins.
Okay.
Head for the exits first.
Okay, so in the 2008 crisis, who panicked first?
Goldman.
I mean, that was a takedown of Lehman.
We won't get into that tonight, but that was an orchestrated hit, and that was payback for what Lehman did in the LTCM crisis.
Really?
Absolutely.
That was 10 years earlier.
Oh, yeah.
Look, they're all part of the New York Fed and they have a long memory on each other.
Yeah, you're right.
Okay.
Everybody wants to treat the elite like it's some glee club and they're all best buddies.
Okay.
It's a club full of sharks and killers.
Right.
Okay.
These guys, they'll slit each other's throat if it puts them at an advantage.
So...
They did that to Lehman, and you don't think they're not doing it again today.
Everybody's jockeying within the elite structure.
I believe there's multiple parties.
I do not believe that this is some monolithic block.
I think everybody has their own self-interest, and you're going to see a lot of betrayal happening.
And that's historical.
Whether you're looking at empires and kingdoms and kings, that's just the way history works, is there's a lot of palace entry.
I think that, and we're not going to be privy to most of that, but you can make some historical assumptions that these guys aren't all best friends.
So, with that being said, I think that they have to take this market down.
There's going to be winners and losers, and trust me, there's going to be some banks that are going to be Really come out of this winning with a winning hand, and others will fade away.
And also, there's going to be assets that are available for pennies on the dollar if this thing goes.
And somebody's going to be sitting in cash.
Absolutely, and I've said that in the past.
Look, I said this in 2008 before it occurred to my friends, and history has proven me right, and I'm going to say it again.
In 2008, I warned people that you were about to see the biggest bank heist in human history.
I'll say it again.
Right now, we are about to see the biggest bank heist in human history.
Okay.
This is a bank heist.
What do you do with a bank heist?
When you're done, you burn it down and destroy the evidence.
Burn it down.
That's exactly what they do.
Okay?
That's what I think they're getting ready to do.
And burn it down.
And it might be burn it down physically, not just metaphorically.
Okay?
So, where am I going with this?
What I'm going with this whole 1929 potential catastrophe is I do believe the risk, and we will know this very soon, I will probably know this probably the week of October 24th.
Somewhere in there, I think we will have a really good clue whether this is about to hit the banking system.
Okay.
Now, I'm not saying that Credit Suisse is going to survive till then.
What I'm saying is that...
We're talking about trillions at the level of Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse, okay?
We're talking about they will not be able to contain that.
Could you join...
I'm sorry to interrupt, but could you join me two weeks from tonight for an update?
That would be...
Oh, yeah, that would be...
16th?
Oh, yeah, that'll be...
That potentially will be starting the crash, the literal crash week.
There is a week of a crash.
Look, if we're going to have a crash, and this week is super important, it's super pivotal this week.
It's going to determine a lot.
If we are starting, let me be very specific for some of your audience who have not heard any of my prior broadcasts.
Okay, let's take it this way.
There is supposed to be a final rally in the stock market.
There always is.
I refer to it as the screw you rally.
Okay.
It's always a rally that comes out of the middle of nowhere.
It destroys the bears and gets the bulls super excited that that was the low.
And then it's like, psych!
You know, they reverse it and then we crash.
Okay.
In 08, it was the Hank Paulson backstopping the money markets at noon on Thursday.
The market goes up 11% in a day and a half, Mike.
11% in a day and a half.
And then we crashed.
There is no rally yet in this market, which is not just befuddling me.
Everybody is like, what is going on?
Now, we have an emergency Fed meeting tomorrow.
We're going to see if they can spark a rally for Monday and Tuesday.
I don't think it's going to be much, but you have to respect these guys.
It could be a lot.
It could be a little.
Doesn't really matter.
When we get to Wednesday, Wednesday to me is super important.
If we roll over on Wednesday and we take out the 28,500 level, as far as I'm concerned, we are now in the crash.
We have entered into the beginning of the crash.
The second week will get worse.
So what happens in crashes is the first week...
You have usually like 2% days, 2%, 3% moves in a day, which is huge, right?
I mean, usually a market moving a percent a day, that's a big deal right now.
In a crash, that first week is like 2%, 3% moves a day.
The second week, you start doing 4%, 5%, and 6% daily moves.
Okay?
And when you get to the third week, You're doing 9, 10, or larger moves a day.
Sure.
Okay.
So, because we know that, and I can show that on charts and we can look back in history, then that's what I'm looking at again.
I'm looking at this week being bad, next week increasing in intensity.
If we see this week being bad, lows are taken out of 28,000, and you'll know this by Friday.
Okay?
If Wednesday, Thursday, Friday...
It's just an obliteration of the market.
We're in the crash.
At that point, the following week of the 10th through the 14th, you're not even going to be anywhere near 28,000.
You most likely will be somewhere around 23,000 on the Dow.
Well, that's when we start to see stockbrokers falling out of the sky, hedge fund managers.
And if we're at those levels by Friday the 14th, I'll have refined targets.
Nobody's going to want to hear my refined targets because you will not believe where the numbers are.
But be that as it may, we'll join up in two weeks and we'll see where we're at.
Because again, this is a hypothesis and we need to test and validate and I'm not making predictions, but it's not looking good.
If you're a bull right now, you know, it's not looking good.
But my fear is not, that's not what I'm worried about.
It's the banking system because that week of the 24th through the 28th, you're going to start to have some pretty clear indications of whether this is taking down European banks.
Okay?
If we see European banks go Mike, it's not going to be a good conversation.
It will come into the United States banking system.
Absolutely.
It's just a question of how quickly.
I would say this, you will have less than two weeks before we have a possible bank shutdown.
It'll be that fast.
Now, the reason I spring all this up Is because on November 8th, you talked about an election.
And what we're talking about here is you could, I mean, you got five and a half weeks till the election.
A lot financially can occur in that amount of time that would not just Upset people going to the polls.
You might have bigger issues.
We really need to be monitoring this.
I know this is your job.
You do this daily.
Because a lot can change getting to those polls.
And I'm not sure the election is the biggest problem everybody has.
Well, this is also the next 30 days.
I call it false flag season.
Some kind of event could radically change psychology.
I mean, think about 9-11.
The market's just got...
So when you're talking false flag, are you talking...
I mean, right now, because I don't even consider false flags anymore.
And the reason I don't talk about false flags anymore is because we have so many black swans circles.
Why do we need a false flag?
No, you're right.
The term is almost obsolete.
I mean, when you have countries just obliterating the Nord Stream pipelines right out in the open, it's like, okay, well, I guess everything now is fair game for these people.
There's no target they want from it.
So...
Oh, who's this guy?
He's a fantastic, he's a hedge fund guy, runs his own hedge fund.
Gosh, I can't remember his first name, but his name is Brahman.
He had a fantastic tweet the other day, and he said, look, if attacking your enemy's energy infrastructure is now fair play, He said, do not think that the U.S. Treasuries are going to survive that type of warfare.
Okay.
What he's saying is this fleeing into the dollar or fleeing into U.S. Treasuries, if we're going to do tit-for-tat at an energy infrastructure level globally, basically he's saying they're going to burn the whole place down.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
This is the problem of expanding the theater of war.
You know, it was artillery and tanks in eastern Ukraine.
Now it's, oh, everything's fair game.
Start blowing up civilian infrastructure.
But, so let's go back to one of the things, comments you made earlier.
So we've got a potential, you know, massive stock market crash, a potential banking crisis to follow immediately.
I'm not talking, there's not going to be a delay, people.
You're going to know really quickly whether this spills immediately into the banking system.
We're not talking about, you know, two months later, all of a sudden you get a, you know, Bank of America's having issues.
It's going to be very quick.
And then you've got what's taking place in Europe at an energy level, and you've got troop movement.
So I don't really think they need a black swan.
They need to...
And putting all these pieces together...
They told you they were going to do the Great Reset.
This isn't like a conspiracy theory.
They told you you're going to own nothing and be happy.
And yet, now people can't believe what they're seeing is occurring in the banking system on Wall Street, and they're thinking that this must be an accident?
No, it's like they are the black swans that took off their COVID mask, and then there's a black swan underneath that mask.
That's who they are.
They're a team of black swans in squad formation.
Like attacking humanity with suicide swans and making like, you know, bombing runs on us.
They are...
Look, they're more insane than that.
They're making...
I am listening and reading The transcripts of Lavrov, Medvedev, Putin.
And for six months, they are imploring the West not to go where we're going.
They are pleading.
I mean, I'm sure you've read those transcripts too.
I mean, and they're very...
I mean, you can't disagree with what they're saying.
I was just covering that earlier tonight in my podcast.
Yeah.
Really?
I mean, it's...
And so, but the Russians are now openly talking about the use of nuclear weapons.
Well, and just as importantly, they're also saying that they're at war with the Antichrist civilization, which is the West.
Which has been overrun by Satanists.
You see what I mean?
You're absolutely correct.
Dugan called it the armies of the Antichrist.
That's right.
Okay.
And you and me cannot disagree with him on that when we look at the social perversion and where the West is at, the moral degradation, the lack of spiritual power.
It's just decayed.
And I said on a previous broadcast, the Russians are building a firewall.
They're not going to be taken down by the West.
It's not going to happen socially, and it's certainly not going to happen politically or militarily.
And you have to remind people that, look, the Russians lost, at a minimum count, 25 million Russians to the Nazis.
Mm-hmm.
What was our death count?
Like 250, 300?
It was something like...
We can't contemplate what the Russian experience was in World War II. You and I cannot conceive of it.
And yet...
And so when they see Nazi symbols in Ukraine, when they see iron crosses and swastikas and salutes, they're not going there again.
It's not up for discussion.
And it is an existential threat to them.
Well, clearly it is.
And nuclear weapons are the ultimate way to say no to your perceived enemy.
You know, denial of area attack.
I think we...
Look, I'm going to say something really...
I probably will be wrong.
Hey, look.
Hopefully I'm going to be wrong.
I will say that right now.
Hopefully what I say is going to...
Make me look stupid.
I think we're going to see the Russians use a nuke.
I think we have to see a Russian use a nuke.
And here's why.
At this point in the game, there is nothing that they can say or do.
Look, they're trying to have rational, logical, adult conversations with mad men.
Exactly.
That's right.
Okay, and like at what point do the Russians, and I'm telling you, Putin is the coolest customer I have ever seen on the world stage.
I mean, this guy, man, he doesn't get, he doesn't raise, you can tell he doesn't raise his voice.
He does it.
He has, he is in authority.
He is in power and control at all times.
You can just tell by his demeanor and language.
And that should scare the, you know what, out of world leaders.
Because he has something up his sleeve.
And I think he's going to have to...
I think they're going to have to take the world to a place that is unimaginable to get the West's attention.
Because right now, we don't...
I mean, you saw what the German Chancellor said on Friday.
He basically said, we don't believe the Russians are serious about nukes.
Well, and this is...
If you get into Putin's head, or at least attempt to, and you realize...
Strategically, what he has available, Russia's best advantage is an overwhelming first strike.
And using the secret weapon system, the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone submarines with 100-plus megaton warheads and the Skyfall weapon systems and the advanced ICBMs, the hypersonic weapons, the, what's it called, the dagger, the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
I mean, If you're Putin and you're thinking you're fighting the Antichrist civilization, which is the West, they've gone completely irrational, they're insane, they're dangerous, they're out of control, you can't reason with them, just like you just said, and you're facing an existential threat to the existence of your culture,
and Russian culture is much older than American culture by far, or even Western European culture for that matter, then overwhelming first strike becomes your obvious choice.
So how about this, though?
Okay, so I don't know, so I'll pause at this, and I'd love to you to knock it down.
Yeah, we probably need to wrap this up since we're way over time.
We're way over time.
I have thought that if Putin...
But Putin knows where the globalists want to take him, and obviously he's trying not to be taken there.
I mean, the globalists want nuclear war, and Putin knows that, so he's trying to avoid that.
Without getting into first strikes and taking this to where the powers that be would love to see this go, I'm wondering if Putin would demonstrate a nuclear detonation in Ukraine.
And contain it.
So it's not Europe, right?
It's Ukraine.
We have not extended it off the current battlefield.
We've not taken it into Europe because then all bets are off.
But, you know, whether it's taking out Lviv, taking out Kiev...
As a demonstration of Russian resolve and to have a pause in this brinkmanship where the West, and I'm not talking about the world leaders, but the average mom and dad sitting in listening to this or watching television going, holy smokes, this has got to stop right now.
I think the West would just look at that and say, well, this is the reason why we have to now retaliate with overwhelming force, and they would use it as a justification to nuke Russia.
Oh, boy.
Well, there's no hope.
You know, I posited...
Yeah, look, that was me being wishful thinking.
Yeah, I mean, seriously, because...
And I think you're probably right.
It's, again, at the end of the day...
Well, one other thought.
Allow me to bring this in, Aaron.
Yeah.
Russia launches an EMP weapon, detonates it over Western Europe.
It brings down the entire power grid, which of course causes near-instant financial collapse and social unrest.
The financial collapse spreads to America.
Another EMP detonates over North America.
90% of the U.S. population is dead in six months from starvation and chaos and disease.
I mean, that scenario...
What's stopping that scenario?
Nothing that I know of.
There's no defense against high-altitude, I mean really, orbital EMP weapons.
Well, again, no, I don't think that we, well, we certainly have an average, if we have the ability to stop it, we're certain, you know, out of the, out of the, out of the more the black part of the military, we're certainly not advertising that capability.
Like super secret space force soldiers or something, maybe?
Well, I would say this, when I was in the military, we were using weapon systems that I did not see for 20 years until after I was out.
Fair enough, yep.
Trust me, there is a lot of stuff.
And I use the classic example of Desert Storm 1.
The average person was like, what the...
I mean, we were bringing out our new toys.
And they weren't even new toys at that time, trust me.
But they were new to the public.
But I think what keeps the Russians at bay...
The only thing that keeps the Russians at bay is our nuclear sub-force.
Good point.
I agree.
Yeah, our nuclear subs are just key.
Yeah.
So...
But bringing it back to just the financial markets, I think, because I know we've got to wrap this up.
We'll join in two weeks, but I would tell people that, you know, my basic thesis right now is the markets are on a thin edge.
They really...
I'm telling you, they cannot go...
The technicians right now, we closed the week at 28,750.
If we lose this support, the market technicians are saying there's no support for at least 5,000 or 6,000 points.
And I'm going to tell you, if we go there, we're not stopping.
So this is kind of what's happening with Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, whoever is in trouble.
Let me leave you with this last thing.
So I was short for 2001, and I didn't know what I was doing.
I mean, I was like 28, 29.
I mean, I didn't know anything.
And I just knew we were going down.
And I remember this really insane trader on Wall Street.
Got a hold of me and he's like, basically, what the heck are you doing short?
And he goes, don't you know we're at three standard deviations?
And of course, at the time, I had no clue even what standard deviations meant as it relates to Marcus.
I was just so green.
And I go, what does that mean?
He goes, son, that means we are going to have one hell of a rally.
Or you're going to be right and all hell's about to break loose.
Two days later, 9-11 occurred.
And that's where we're at right now.
We're either going to have one heck of a rally or all hell's about to break loose.
Well, okay.
You have people's attention.
Everyone will be watching carefully.
I'm just glad doing this interview with you.
I'm glad that I don't own any stocks or bonds and I haven't for years because I can't handle being in that.
My life's busy enough without dealing with all that stuff.
But for a lot of people, that's their whole life.
Is it in pensions or IRAs or stocks?
And I think that's the problem with where we're at with the financial system now is that It's like a forest fire out in the West.
They just would not allow any type of controlled burns or anything.
So then you'd get these just massive engulfing fires, right?
Yeah.
They would just burn everything.
Okay.
So...
And that's what we've taken that forest fire policy and applied it to the economy.
Right.
No downturns ever allowed.
Ever.
We don't allow downturns, no recession.
I mean, a recession is like some, you know, four-letter word, right?
No, they've even renamed it.
What do they call it?
They have a new name for recession.
It's like slowing growth.
Well, there you go.
I love that.
We're going to have a period of slowing growth.
Okay, so...
And what that is doing is it's magnifying these problems when they do surface.
And unfortunately, and this is more germane to your audience, It doesn't matter, you know, our concern, my concern, your concern is, I talk to plenty of people that, you know, they're out of the stock market.
Maybe they don't even have a 401k.
Maybe they're not even in U.S. treasuries.
But that's kind of hard to believe for certain elderly people.
But be that as it may, they're still not immune to it.
Because...
They need credit.
Maybe they're a small business owner.
Maybe they need loans.
Maybe they just finance their house.
Maybe they're trying to start a family and buy a house.
I mean, this is going to have...
I've been telling people, nobody, especially if this spills over to the banking system, everybody is going to be affected.
Well, right.
I mean, without transactions, the whole system falls apart.
If you can't buy gas or groceries or the grocery stores can't pay for shipping, If the public, and I know that you talk about complex systems and you've established that in a lot of areas that you've discussed, the most complex system is Wall Street.
Wall Street, if you start actually looking behind curtains and looking at the plumbing and how all this stuff works, You would run because you're like, this is the most complicated system.
Who came up with this?
It is so complex.
It is so fragile.
It is so international in scope.
And then not only is it It's complexity upon complexity, but then they then add 20, 30, 40, 50x leverage to it.
Oh my, right.
And then you go, and they have some expectation like, this is going to be great.
We're all going to make a ton of money and nobody's going to get hurt.
Or from the big short, that movie and that whole thing about 2008, remember?
CDOs and then synthetic collateralized debt obligations.
You have synthetic CDOs.
They have derivatives upon derivatives.
Right.
They have like third order derivatives.
Yes.
And they don't understand risk.
That's the thing.
They don't understand risk.
They'll have two derivatives in opposite directions and they think the risk cancels each other out.
And it doesn't.
Yeah, they can't, you know, you bring in the quant guys from NASA, and there's famous books that were written on that.
I mean, so they brought in all these quant guys from NASA that built the black boxes and the high-frequency trading and really the whole derivatives market.
And it's predicated on...
You know, maybe a two, three standard deviation event, maybe.
Right, exactly.
They don't think about black swans happening.
Yeah, if you get into four, five, six, seven standard deviation, you cannot hedge that risk affordably.
You just can't.
So you have to find out what is a tolerable historical condition The problem is these guys, ancient history to these guys is like 15 years ago.
Right.
Good point.
If you think about this, and this was brought to my attention, you know, last week by some traders, they said, Aaron, 2008, they said hardly any of our traders on the trading desk We're on Wall Street then.
That's right.
They're not old enough to have even seen...
Forget about 97, 98, 2001, 1987.
They're like the old men that they...
I mean, like...
So there's no...
You know, it's not just that the average person is unaware of history as it relates to a number of topics you've covered.
It happens on Wall Street as well.
There's so...
They're so financially ignorant of history, and that's why they keep repeating the same issues.
That's it.
That's exactly right.
And we're going to have to wrap it up there, Aaron.
Although, obviously, we could cover a lot more ground, but let's get together in two weeks to see where we are then and how things are shaping up.
And that's assuming the Internet works two weeks from today.
Assuming we have electricity and a power grid.
I'm going to tell you that.
We're going to have electricity because this is a bank heist.
They will clear those trades.
Okay.
All right.
This isn't about you and me making money.
This is about Goldman Sachs and some of these major players making a ton of money.
They are going to keep the lights on long enough to clear the trades.
Makes sense.
All right.
Well, let me give out your Twitter handle for folks who want to follow you there, agbrickman.
That's your handle there.
Is there any other website where people can follow your work, Aaron?
Yeah, for the time being, that's it.
But yeah, I'm always posting stuff, but mostly financial, some news, but mostly I leave the news to you guys.
But mostly it's financial and market.
Yeah, it's just A.G. Brickman and follow me there.
Okay.
Thank you, Mike.
You're awesome.
Thank you.
Such great discussion, great questions, and really the honor is mine to be speaking with you today, and I look forward to speaking with you soon.
Well, I look forward as well.
And thank you for taking all this time.
We've done 90 minutes here and I think barely scratched the surface.
So there's more to cover.
But Aaron, your work is greatly appreciated.
Gets people to think about what's going on and also a much bigger picture than just...
Elliot waves alone.
And that Elliot guy, he must be busy.
He's been working on those charts for a long time.
But I want to thank you, Aaron, for taking the time, and we'll talk to you again real soon.
All right.
Thank you, Mike.
All right.
Thank you.
Take care.
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