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March 6, 2020 - Health Ranger - Mike Adams
13:45
Pandemic model warns of 2.1 million DEATHS in America
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If most travel is not shut down in America, there will be 2.16 million deaths from coronavirus by July 4th in America.
This is Mike Adams, the Health Ranger for Pandemic.News.
And I've just completed a new simulation model that projects future numbers based on current trends.
And it's March 5th, and I've just published the first round of numbers from this model.
And it's quite alarming.
It means that this is going to explode much more quickly than even I thought.
Let me tell you about the assumptions of the model.
So you know that it's not in any way a worst-case type of model.
It uses an R0 value of 1.82.
The real R0 value for the coronavirus is believed to be something closer to 6.6, but I'm using 1.82 to keep it very conservative.
The model assumes no recurring infections for people who are cured.
And it assumes only a 2% mortality rate, even though the WHO is already saying it's 3.4%.
In this model, the number of people infected doubles roughly a little over 7 days.
It's calculated daily, and we assume that people are infected for 14 days during which they're spreading infection, and then after 14 days, 98% are cured and 2% are dead.
And after they're either cured or dead, they're removed from the pool of actively infected people so they no longer infect others.
So if you run this model and do the math on this, and by the way, as a disclaimer, this is a revision one of the model.
It's subject to change.
But more importantly, these are not predictions because there will be interventions to stop this, such as quarantines, travel restrictions, social isolation, forced closures of everything.
But what this model shows is what happens if we don't close everything.
In other words, if society continues to function as normal, then by April 4th, We get 580 dead in an aggregate number.
That's 580 up to that day.
8,600 actively infected and 5,400 recovered.
Now, if you're wondering why these numbers don't seem to add up, it's because there's a lag time.
So there's a 14-day lag time after someone gets infected until they either die or are cured.
So there's, you know, the deaths are lagging behind the actively infected.
By May 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place, we have 123,000 infected actively in America.
We have 10,000 dead, and we have 85,000 recovered.
By June 4th, if this is allowed to continue to replicate without any restraints, we have 1.7 million infected, 153,000 dead, And 1.2 million recovered.
And by July 4th, again, if no travel restrictions are put in place, no isolation, if this is just allowed to spread with no restraint, we have 24 million actively infected Americans.
By July 4th, we have 2.16 million dead.
And we have 17 million recovered.
In fact, on that day, there will be 183,000 deaths, according to this model.
Now, the good news...
I was like, what?
Good news?
The good news is it won't get there.
These numbers are not predictions because governors and the president won't allow things to get that bad.
Instead, there will be very aggressive shutdowns across society because you can't let this model run out.
So to summarize where we are and where this is going...
We are going to see very aggressive breakdowns or shutdowns or quarantines, however you want to call it, of transportation.
Across America, domestic flights will be halted.
Roadways will be blocked and guarded with armed, perhaps National Guard troops.
Roadway checkpoints are going to have...
Lots of shutdowns and restrictions on public transportation including rail, buses, subways, and so on.
We're going to have quarantine cities and schools.
And then close down schools and universities and public offices, government buildings, and things like that.
Most public events will be canceled from sporting events to concerts to, I don't know, whatever, your outdoor Shakespearean theater evening or whatever you go to.
It's not going to be happening.
There's going to be probably criminal arrests and prosecutions of individuals who violate quarantine.
And in effect, this means there will be what I call catastrophic implications for domestic transport, including UPS, FedEx and U.S. Postal Service deliveries of online orders.
Obviously, this would be affecting Amazon.com quite catastrophically.
Would also affect our business, HealthRangerStore.com.
We may be unable to deliver to certain areas.
I've covered that in a previous podcast.
If the day comes, for example, that Los Angeles is under quarantine, then probably we can't deliver to Los Angeles because UPS has...
that area, which brings in lots of questions, of course, about how do people get food supplies?
How do people get medicine?
You know, kind of pretty important, critical questions.
And if you can't get those supplies, then, well, what happens in society?
What level of breakdown and chaos and lawlessness and looting and all those things?
I guess that depends on the city.
I wouldn't want to be in East St. Louis when that happens.
Or, you know, Detroit or whatever.
Not a good day to be in East L.A. either, come to think of it.
There's a lot of other cities like that across America that you would want to avoid, of course.
One more point in all of this, as you follow this model, and I haven't even really done this calculation, but we can do it together in our heads.
It's easy.
Dr.
Anthony Fauci of the NIH says that 15 to 20% of the people who get infected will require hospitalization.
And so the reason that this model is quite alarming is that by the time you get to, for example, oh, let's say May 4th, At that point, you have 122,000 people actively infected on May 4th, according to this model.
So 122,000 people across the country infected.
If 20% of those require hospitalization, then you're at 24,000 roughly people that need hospital beds.
Okay, we do have 24,000 hospital beds across America, but we don't have 24,000 biocontainment hospital beds.
So if you just stick these people in regular hospital beds, they just infect the whole hospital.
How many biocontainment hospital beds do we have in America?
I haven't been able to find the exact answer because I think some of that comes down to national secrets and such, but I think it's fewer than 10,000.
So it doesn't take very long for this model to overwhelm the number of available...
Appropriate hospital beds.
And when those beds get full, then what happens?
People get sent home to die and then the death rates explode up to 10%, 15%, maybe 17%.
So when we're estimating a 2% death rate and maybe a couple million people dead by July 4th, in truth, if the numbers even get close to that, then the hospital beds get full and people don't have frontline healthcare and then the mortality rate actually explodes.
So there are scenarios where this goes much higher than the numbers I've mentioned.
I just don't want to project those scenarios because that starts to get into, you know, how you have best case, worst case, and then like Mad Max case.
That gets into the Mad Max case where at that point numbers become almost meaningless because numbers Society is shutting down, the banks are failing, lawlessness and chaos, and, you know, you're walking around like Denzel Washington in that End of Times movie, what was that, where he's fighting people with the sword?
Like, that kind of scenario.
That's, you know, end days.
Book of Revelation.
So there's no point in even projecting numbers to that realm.
You know, in that scenario, the internet won't work, you know, your cryptocurrency will be worthless, the power grid goes down, mass die-off of humanity, and etc., etc.
So there's not even any point in discussing that.
If that happens, the The number of human survivors will be a small percentage of the current global population, which just happens to coincide with the goals of the globalists, come to think of it.
So, wow, if you've ever wondered who's behind all this, you don't have to look very far.
In any case, just a final note.
These numbers that I've mentioned here, these are not predictions.
These are theoretical projections that hopefully will be stopped before they get that bad.
But, on the other hand, we have, you know, the Trump administration is not doing a good job on this, and he's surrounding himself with a bunch of, well, illiterate, you know, junk science morons, frankly, at the CDC and the NIH and the FDA, and they don't know what they're talking about.
And the Surgeon General is like, don't wear masks, they don't work.
But we need them for the hospitals.
I mean, give me a break, man.
These people are idiots.
And they treat us like cattle, like we're all just moron cattle, like we don't know anything.
Like, they can just teach us that masks are bad so that they can buy all the masks, you know?
I mean, watch what they do, not what they say.
The government is preparing at a level that many of us have never seen before.
And I know a lot of people in the retail business who buy wholesale commercial quantities of different things from night vision and storable food and what else?
Like colloidal silver, all kinds of stuff, survival and prepping gear.
And they're all telling me government orders are through the roof.
Governments, military bases, local National Guard Outfits and the CDC itself.
And so massive orders by the government.
It's the same government that's telling you, oh, don't worry, this is totally under control.
You don't need anything.
You don't need a thing.
Well, watch what they do, not what they say.
Because they are prepping for end times.
They're prepping for the Mad Max scenario.
While they're telling you everything's fine.
Everything's under control.
So obviously don't believe them.
If you want to live, read pandemic.news.
That's the new slogan around here.
It's no joke.
It's not a joke.
If you want to live, read pandemic.news.
We'll give you information that can help you stay alive and help you plan accordingly for what's coming.
I'm Mike Adams, the health ranger, banned everywhere, because I tell you the truth.
Thanks for listening.
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I'm Mike Adams.
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