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Oct. 1, 2024 - Lionel Nation
24:54
What Will Happen to Financial Markets and Investing If Trump Loses?
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My friend, I'm so happy to bring back to the airwaves, to the microphone, to the camera, Bob Kudla from Trade Genius and also TradeWithLionel.com.
Bob?
You might not have known this, but I hear there's an election coming up, and it seems to be around the corner.
It's in all the papers.
You might have heard about it.
I heard something about it.
They said it's not going to be that important.
Yes.
You know, as these things go, not exactly as important as Millard Fillmore or Franklin Pierce, but assuming that somebody does find this important, from a Wall Street, from an investment, from a money point of view, What does this bode?
What should investors and what should money geniuses like you be watching for?
Well, this is probably the most consequential election probably in our lifetime.
I would say it probably goes all the way back to Lincoln.
That's how important I think this election is because really the country now has two extremely different views.
On what this country should look like going forward.
And so, on the one hand, you have Trump.
I think everybody kind of has a decent understanding of what he wants to do.
And I'll explain to people, because it's important how it's going to affect your portfolios next year.
So if Trump wins the election, okay, he's going to try to generate...
Activity in the energy belt, and he's going to try to generate activity in the rust belt, meaning that the price of energy or oil should go down in price on a go-forward basis, and the factories that we're trying to offshore won't be able to offshore anymore because he'll basically tariff them into extinction, and he's going to drive...
Manufacturing back into the U.S. over time, which would be a China negative, be a Mexico negative, it'd be a Europe negative, and what it'll do here in the U.S., it'll create actually wage inflation, okay?
But we'll have conservative values, state rights.
He's going to try to hollow up the federal government, shift some of it to the states, get rid of some of it.
Try to recreate an environment that we had actually from Lincoln into the First World War, where you had relatively consistent growth in GDP and productivity, which then would take care of, at least mollify the budget deficit somewhat.
But you'll have some inflation short term.
If Kamala gets in, it's more than an economic problem.
The country will be diluted in terms of the citizenry.
And so we'll import a lot more poor people and we'll start taking on the look of Brazil in terms of a very concentrated group of elites and living in very nice areas, wall themselves off, and then basically the rest of the country would be in very dire shape.
And it'll be a high surveillance state, will be a warring state, and there'll probably be some sort of civil disobedience around the land.
And economically, the taxation requirements of her policies are onerous.
You know, she'll try to raise corporate taxes, individual tax levels.
There'll be a slew of fees, a lot of government intervention in the markets and in the economy.
And basically, she'll drive this whole thing to a halt.
They don't think they will.
But for whatever reason, liberals don't understand second-order effects.
They only understand what they want.
But they'll destroy the country.
And so that's kind of where we are.
And a lot of inflation.
Because they'll try to spend their way out of the problem.
So if Trump gets in, we probably have a good run until the inauguration, and then we go into our recession.
If Kamala wins that night or the day whenever she gets announced, it'll be a remarkable crash.
And I will never come back again, because it'll be absolutely mind-boggling, the amount of wants on the wish list.
Now, in the meantime, October is relatively benign for the stock market pre-election.
Bitcoin likes October, had a good September.
Gold and silver like that the dollar is weakening.
And so I think we're going to see the great rotation.
What I personally think is going to happen is it looks like Trump's going to win the election.
And you're starting to see that rotation heavily into commodities and coming out of tech.
So that's kind of where I see things.
And just to put on the politic hat for a second, it looks like he's starting to get a lift in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and it looks like Pennsylvania, the registration, is favoring the Republican Party.
And it looks like for the first time in the country's history, we have more...
And may I add, for the first time, Bob Kudlup, in a long time we have people recognizing the fact that an unfocused upon and a neglected aspect to our voting matrix and matrices has been mail-in,
write-in, absentee voting, and there are Hundreds of thousands of millions of names being purged, ballot mills.
And we're not talking computers or actual election devices, Dominion, Smartmatic.
I'm not talking about that.
I'm talking about plain old paper that comes in and some person just...
And you can stand in that...
In that office all day long.
And you can watch them and they'll say, I've got some letters here.
I'm opening them up.
Looks good.
So that's been my bugaboo.
And every time I hear about another state clearing, purging, think of it as an electoral enema, Bob.
To use that imagery, I think we're getting closer to electoral purity.
Because like someone once said, you worry about the politics, let me count the votes.
Yeah, so, and not just that, too.
A couple, I guess there's a state, I forget which one it is, that requires now the signatures to be verified before you can even count them.
It was in the past, it was the other way around.
And then I know Arizona passed some tough laws.
Wisconsin passed some tough laws.
Pennsylvania passed some tough laws.
And everything, too, is the mail-in ballot requests have fallen off sharply since 2020.
Look, we can only hope.
We'll know in six weeks, but that's how it's going to be.
So it's going to be a wild ride.
If Trump gets in, I think things will be relatively okay in Main Street, and then Wall Street will have some disruption, but we'll just have to see where it comes out.
So, you know, he's definitely going to Try to recreate Fortress America.
And people don't understand what Fortress America is.
Is that we're going to be less expansionary in foreign policy.
And we're going to be more defensive domestic policy.
And that'll take some time to filter through the system.
People are going to have to get used to people making more money.
You know, damn!
Yeah, it's been a problem.
Look, you know, I understand, you know, if unions get too strong, it's a problem.
Look at the port strike, right?
You know, but if unions get too weak, nobody makes any money.
And so we're going to have to find that balance, and companies just can't arbitrage wages anymore.
At the same time, what we've done by letting our energy policy and our manufacturing policy Go the way it did was we enabled a competitor called China, and we enabled an enemy called Iran.
And to a lesser extent, depending on how you view Russia, you know, look, Russia at $50 oil is a different country than Russia at $100 oil.
Same with Iran and the Middle East and elsewhere.
They just won't have the money to do the mischief.
So, Trump gets a twofer, right?
If he drives energy costs down in the United States by increasing supply, he also gets a foreign policy win at the same time.
I've got to ask you, you know, Bob, you've always been very good.
We've been talking for a long time, and I love it.
Our fans, our viewers love it.
And you've always been very, very careful as far as talking about money, money, very, very specific, very, very targeted, very clinically, without interjecting.
Your own particular ideology and the like.
But I've got to ask you this question.
You've been doing this for a long time.
You must certainly have in your chat rooms and among your investors, people who are progressives and liberals and perhaps Democrats, maybe even Kamala Harris.
How can you maintain an aggressive, rational, focused investment outlook and worldview and yet be applauding and hoping For this regime, because in my humble opinion, not yours, it is not Kamala Harris who's running the show.
She's an auto pen.
She's a sock puppet.
She's a windsock.
There's somebody basically handing things to her and she'll sign it.
So I don't know who's actually behind the curtain, but how do investors who want to make money and want to do well, how do they justify, how do they negotiate the realities of political lunacy with sound investment policies?
Well, look, in the past, because they were able to paper a lot of this stuff over by just throwing money at the problem, that's how they did it.
But now this election is different because people are starting to vote their self-interest.
You can always guarantee people vote their self-interest.
And I have a mantra that I live by, is that things don't matter to people until they matter to people.
Oh, yeah.
Meaning that if you and I are bothered by something politically, Unless it's affecting the person you're communicating with, they ignore you.
Or in some cases, they'll deride you, right?
But now you have a situation where everybody's touched by this.
And I'll take it back to really the COVID response, okay?
Nobody really escaped the COVID response.
Some people worse than others.
Now we find out that the whole thing essentially was a fraudulent conveyance, right?
They've been had a little bit.
You can see it in the vaccination rates have plummeted.
Some people don't trust them anymore.
But the same thing happens economically is that they did a study and they said, what would you rather have, a recession or stagflation, meaning high inflation, low growth?
And it was 80% people would prefer a recession.
And you know why?
Because in a recession, 80% of the people or 85% of the people are unaffected by it.
They don't lose their job, okay?
Only a small portion of society loses their job.
In inflation, nobody escapes.
Everybody's affected.
And I think that is the tell.
So, like, in my environment and in my chat rooms, in my trading rooms, is that, you know, we kind of swing away from The political conversations, the religious conversations, because they're really, mostly they're pointless.
People don't really want to be educated.
People want to pontificate.
You know, you're true, right?
Nobody's going to convince me off of my positions, right?
And so I assume I'm not going to convince anybody else.
Well, you know, you've talked about it.
There's an old joke, an old trope, an old chestnut that says that a recession is when somebody loses their job.
A depression is when you lose your job.
And that always goes to show.
You know, Bob, just very, very simply, and I want to repeat this, Emphasize this.
I've always, and correct me if I'm wrong, when it comes down to pure, unadulterated, beautiful capitalism at its most brutal, because that's what a lot of people, socialist friends of mine say, it's brutal that the owners don't care.
Okay, fine.
But it is scientifically pure.
When it comes to making money, all of a sudden, ideology goes out the window.
And somebody who might be perhaps either progressive or liberal, if it doesn't make sense, if exporting jobs, if allowing borders to be invaded by people, if it affects the bottom line, they will then adjust their political slash investment outlook accordingly.
Do you agree?
I do, but there's a few exceptions to that.
There are people that would rather be I'd rather be the king of a dunghill, right, than to have policies that benefit everybody, right?
Because they don't care if they don't maximize their wealth as much as they want to maximize their control.
People have different what they would describe self-interest.
And so I look at most socialist countries aren't fair.
At all, except the exception being the Nordic countries.
There's a genetic predisposition there towards evenness, right?
But for the most part, you look at the BRIC countries, right?
You know, Russia is essentially socialist in the sense that you have a cadre of rich, everybody else is poor.
Brazil, cadre of rich, everybody else is poor.
India, cadre of rich, everybody else is poor.
You know, but they spout...
And pontificate socialistic values.
North Korea, very few are rich, everybody else is poor.
China, very few are rich, everybody else is poor.
But they have the mantra, right?
And really what it's designed to is to prevent competitors from leaking into your caste system, right?
But capitalism in and of itself has to have limits because you've got a guy like Bill Gates, right?
He can literally buy up probably all the farmland in Kansas, right?
And they have.
Let's say he bought all the farmland in Kansas.
And he decides he's not going to grow any crops.
Okay?
Now there's not enough food in America.
You see what I'm saying?
So there are limits that have to kind of be placed on them.
And it's really around...
I'm not talking about, hey...
You know, you're going from $200,000 to $300,000 a year.
That's good on you.
But, you know, if you have five guys that can really buy up the entire food structure of the United States, that's a problem.
You can't just say, well, the country's free, you know.
So there's an issue there.
Now, you could do that in Kansas, and then the population in Kansas get a right to tolerate politicians and say, well, tax that land at 5,000% of...
So that's what happens then.
You get these overreactions.
And so we have to have some limits on concentration of wealth.
And here I think too, look, China employs this very effectively.
They'll go in and they'll destroy an American industry by just basically undermining it.
And then once you wipe out the capital stock, it's not just a matter of, oh, now they're back to higher prices.
It costs too much money to replace the capital stock.
So there are exceptions to these rules that you have to be really careful about.
A lot of people say I'm a libertarian.
I'm like, well, how did you get here today?
There are public goods.
I would say that I'm a capitalist with bumpers.
There are some exceptions.
A monopolistic power needs to be checked.
Parasitic powers need to be checked, you know, and oligarchic powers need to be checked.
But other than that, let people have at it.
And the other thing, too, is that the more small businesses you have in the country, the more stable and actually the more tax revenues generated for the country.
So, you know, those are the kind of things.
And so when you get these concentrations of these few large companies...
You know, it's not benefiting the society either.
But you would think from the Sherman Antitrust and from the days of Standard Oil, and you would think that somehow, you know, Tolstoy said that history would be a wonderful thing if only it were true.
And I would add that history would be a wonderful thing if only people knew it and remembered it.
The same motivations 100, 200 years ago are around today.
People are not systematically different than they always were.
Greed and avarice and sin and destruction and war.
We're the same.
We think we're enlightened.
We think we're better.
And for the most part, let's face it, there are some problems we don't have.
We don't have public hangings or things like that.
But, you know, so much of what you do is trying to balance the notion of psychology and emotion and sociology with cold hard finance.
Do you find that?
Yeah, yeah.
And look, for the most part, it works.
I mean, the issues you bring up, they may not have changed, but look, we do have in our Constitution, there is a flaw that we're seeing here today.
The executive branch can pretty much ignore the other two branches.
And so that's a problem that required people to act with integrity.
Ever since Bill Clinton, that flaw has been exposed.
They just choose to...
If you're politically favored and you're a monopolist, they just choose not to pursue you.
The law is an entity unto itself.
Look at Hunter Biden.
I don't want to make this too political, but we have in New York City...
A mayor who was basically looking at cracking rocks upstate in federal prison for accepting travel upgrades and hotel bumps, when we have other people, arguably, who are taking billions of dollars, millions of dollars from foreign entities and not even blinking an eye.
So you're right about that.
And it also goes back to the notion of, remember the old days of...
Of Dick Cheney and the Unitary Executive and how during the George Bush administration they wanted to make, they said the balance of power, separation of powers, my arse.
We're Article 2. We're in charge.
And they had signing statements and ways to get around it.
You bring up a great point.
It's a balance and it's something that I don't want to get too much into this, but I don't think you can even understand the notion of investing your money unless you understand the rudiments, the abecedarian aspects.
Yeah, you're bringing up trust and confidence.
So if people aren't trusting and confident in the system, the system collapses.
I think we're at that point now where trust is very, very low and transparency is very, very low.
And people just see that the game is rigged.
And so you get to a point where people just won't accept it anymore.
And I think that's the thing we have to watch out for.
But that affects us in what we do.
So you have to look for opportunities where they present themselves.
And that's why you're here.
That's why trade with Lionel.
And by the way, I enjoy this immensely.
But the bottom line is that somebody says, yeah, I like that.
I like that guy.
How do I join the team?
How do I benefit from this man's intellectual gifts?
And world view.
What can they do, Bob?
Well, they just go down to the landing page that you have set up with Trade with Lionel and click on it.
You have a couple choices.
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And we have a lot of very sophisticated traders in the room, and they just like to have a second eye on things and look at opportunities they may not see themselves.
And so it works out really well.
You join today, you can start trading tomorrow.
And just be clear that we don't trade for you, we don't take your money, we don't ask you for Bitcoin, any of that garbage.
We just give you the tools to be successful and the ability to communicate with us to do that.
And if you just happen to stumble onto our site, you know, TradeLikeAGenius.com, let people know you came from Lionel so that we can go ahead and credit him and get you the right pricing.
You can call 1-800-949-1408.
Tell them Lionel sent you.
TradeWithLionel.com.
Bob Cutler, out of the decades and generations of discussions that we've had, this has been my favorite.
I have enjoyed this thoroughly, and we should do it one day, perhaps.
Not even talk about investing at all, just your thoughts, your worldview, because I think you're a very interesting man.
In fact, I know.
You're very interesting and a very worldly man.
Bob Kudler, thank you, my friend.
Let us talk again, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
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