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Sept. 20, 2022 - Lionel Nation
36:07
Grave Foreboding for Investors: Economic Peril Lurks

Bob Kudla is the founder and president of Trade Genius Academy. He joins me for what proves to be concomitantly frightening yet encouraging. But listen very carefully.

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All right, my friends.
Bob Kudla joins us.
He's the founder.
And there's the bell.
Bob Kudla joins us.
He is the founder and president of Trade Genius Academy.
And before that, Bob was an executive for two Fortune 500 companies in the financial services industry for 25 years.
Bob focused on business development and mergers and acquisitions and has been trading since 1991.
And in 2008, Bob started his first trading service with his private group of friends.
It then became so popular, he decided to take it public and turn it into a business.
So enter Trade Genius in 2015.
Bob's strength is that he's able to see around the corners and position his trades into the right markets and sectors.
For the past five years, he's been able to track a 65% overall win record in the market.
And Bob Kudla, as we say in Hell's Kitchen, not too shabby, my friend.
Oh, thank you.
Thank you.
Yeah, so we're coming up on a pretty interesting time period.
You know, I don't know when you're going to post this video, but Wednesday, the 21st of September, is the Fed meeting, and this is probably going to be the penultimate meeting that we're going to have because we don't know if they're going to accelerate the raises or if they're going to...
Just continue on a grind or if they're going to start slowing down the pace of the increases.
But we're really at a point now where it's becoming problematic for not just the market but also the economy.
So tomorrow's going to be a very interesting day.
And we're going to be posting this today, as in tomorrow being the day you speak of.
Bob, every time we speak, you throw something out which nobody even remotely Is reporting on.
And it is, I find, fascinating.
Let's start off with, if we could, what is the most shocking information that you want people to know right now?
And also incorporate this in terms of what Trade Genius does.
So first of all, shock me.
Yeah, I'm actually 117 years old.
Oh, you meant like for the stock market.
Anything.
Yeah.
I think what's going to shock people is that the – How ill-equipped the economy is going to be to the rising of rates, because we're going to have a lot of businesses that are going to be rolling over debt, that they've been basically enjoying one-half to two percent interest rates on money that they've been using actually to keep the companies going.
And so, you know, if they're now going to be rolling rates up to 4%, 5%, you're doubling your interest expense on these businesses.
And I bet something here will shock you.
Over 20% of the S&P 500 is cash flow negative, meaning that they can't support the business on the revenues that are coming in.
And, you know, you only have very few options when you don't have enough revenue coming in to meet expenses.
You either A, Reduce expenses.
And you reduce expenses by you cutting back on your growth prospects.
If your nominal growth is good enough, you stop growing to become cash flow positive.
If you're not that, and it's your interest expenses that are called you issue, you have to dilute shares.
And if it's not that, you have to cut into the meat of the business.
And we're going to see one of those three or a combination of those three things playing out over the next 12 months, which is going to extend the bear market and the stock market.
Just because when the company stops raising interest rates, usually that's when the stock market takes its biggest tumbles because that signifies to the world that we're going into a recession.
So that's number one.
Number two is that the...
Basically, the Flat Earth Society, which was Thomas Friedman.
You should know that if you're a New Yorker, the New York Times bestseller who actually wrote something very, very wrong.
You know, he foresaw a century of the interconnected world where everybody's kumbaya-ing each other.
And what we really got was the whole world being mercantilists or monopolists.
And the United States buying everything because they wanted the dollar to be a reserve currency.
Well, the United States have changed their policies.
You notice we have a strong dollar policy now.
And what that's doing is really blowing up the supply chains around the world.
And basically, you're going to see trading coming back on shore of everybody.
And that includes the United States.
So you're going to see a situation where the people that produce Commodities are going to extract the higher price of those commodities before they leave their shores.
Either if you're going to refine it on my site, or if you're going to send it out that way, you're going to pay a higher royalty for it.
Number one.
Number two, countries like the United States is going to say, We've got to bring back critical infrastructure back into the United States for basically to secure national security reasons.
And you've got countries like India who are kind of screwed both ways.
They don't make enough food.
They don't have enough energy.
And they're going to then try to make things more domestic.
And then you have countries like China who are...
In the same situation.
And they're going to suffer immensely.
China's going to be like the United States was in 1929.
The United States is going to be like Great Britain was in 1929.
Basically, we're pulling back from our empire ambitions.
And people say, well, we don't have any land overseas.
Well, we had tentacles everywhere.
And you're going to see those pull back.
But you're going to see China and Germany.
Well, Germany's already imploding, but you're going to see China implode, and that includes Korea's in trouble, and Japan's in trouble, Germany's in trouble, all the countries that are mercantilist.
And what mercantilism means is that...
Exporting Ibrales, right?
So you suppress people's wages, you suppress standard of living in order for you to export more than you import.
Well, now everybody's going to have to stand on their own, and those countries are going to really, really suffer.
And so those are the two biggest things that, I don't know if it shocks your listeners, but it's going to shock the common person when they find out that our standard of livings are going to get Realigned, if you will.
Reset?
To use the Klaus Schwab tech?
The great reset?
That's a different thing.
The reset is really they're trying to create a totalitarian progressive society where they don't want to be bothered listening to the hoi polloi.
That's why they want the CDBC and all this other garbage.
This is more like...
You know, what people are seeing now.
I can't do the things they used to be able to do because now we have this debt overhang.
We have basically trade imbalances.
But believe it or not, if you're in the United States, we're going to end up being one of the winners out there.
And, you know, Australia is going to be one of the winners out there.
Brazil stays politically stable.
They'll be one of the winners out there.
And countries like Israel, because we have enough for our own energy, we have enough for our own food, we have a high-tech ability to produce, manufacture things.
And in Australia's case, they have all the commodities.
In the United States, we just lean on Canada and Mexico for most of what we don't have.
And then hopefully we're going to have some sort of retrenchment with Russia because Russia has all the other things that we need other than trying to fight China for it in Africa.
So that's kind of how I see the world unfolding.
And people aren't ready for it yet.
You can still see it in the stock market.
People are still trying to buy dips.
And when you have interest rates now pushing up 4%, 4.5%, 5%, you have competition for stocks.
You can park your money now and make a higher yield than you would expect in a stock market.
And we're approaching that.
And the real estate market is dead.
So you're right now.
There's this thing called the cap rate.
Your expected rate of return on real estate is now competing against the risk-free rate of a 10-year yield.
And so you're going to be like, why?
Why have something so liquid as real estate when I can just park my money in a bond?
And if I'm going to be in it, you look at three- or five-year bonds now are pushing 3%.
Ten-year bonds are pushing 3.5%.
And so you're lucky if you get 5% yield on real estate.
And then as people suffer, you're going to have issues where you're going to have rent controls, you're going to have rent abatements, you're going to have...
Excuse me, property taxes increasing, yada, yada, yada.
And real estate's not liquid.
So you could be stuck with a bad decision for a decade.
Now, I don't know whether to consider a sedative at this point or to be elated.
Now, taking what you've said and utilizing the expertise from you and trade genius.
What is the sophisticated, not-so-sophisticated, ordinary, either investor or American or person, what do they do given that information?
Yeah, look, you know, it's really energy.
So you could be a brand-new investor or you could be the most sophisticated person in the world.
You know, you need to be in things that people need.
right now today or tomorrow is this thing's going out is that wheat prices, corn prices are rising.
We're in those.
We have those things going for us.
And then energy.
Uranium is simple because it doesn't require an economic cycle for it to go up.
It just requires a deficit and people building $5 billion new plants around the world, which they are.
And then energy.
Somebody has to replace Russian gas and oil, right?
And China's coming back on stream because they're winding down their pandemic response.
So that's really simple.
Stay away from everything else and you're going to be just fine.
We mostly sidestep most of the drama this year because we've been trading a lot of energy names.
And then once the Fed pauses or pauses slower, then inflation is going to continue.
As per my earlier conversation here, is that, believe it or not, gold and silver will take the mantle again.
And so that's where you want to stay.
You know, if it hurts, if you drop it on your foot, you want to own it.
Okay?
If it only requires you to put it in a spreadsheet, you're going to want to sell it.
So those are the stocks you want to own.
Now, tell us about Trade Genius.
What happens?
How do I...
This is fascinating.
And so many people want to avail themselves of your genius and expertise and your history.
Tell us how this works.
Make us rich.
What do we do?
Yeah, first of all, I want to...
Since I'm speaking to a lawyer, I want to disabuse people of the notion that they get rich quick.
Okay?
So it's really a...
We're meat and potatoes, you know, grind your way to wealth over time by making more right decisions than wrong decisions and making more money when you're right than losing when you're wrong.
So with that backdrop, that's where you referenced the 65% win rate.
And then we have what's called a positive profit factor.
So that's just good to know.
And how we did it is we built algorithms that look at probabilities, that look at levels, and looks at momentum.
And then we've combined those probabilities basically into an alert.
And now we've created a bot out of it as well.
So what we do is that our system is scanning our watch list, continuously looking for opportunities.
And then once it discovers those opportunities, it pushes it out onto basically an alert or a monitor for us.
And then we evaluate it.
And curate it to see if it's a signal we want to give out to our listeners.
So that's one thing that we do.
The other thing that we do is we actually provide you with two of the three algorithms that you have access to.
And those algorithms then can help you find your own buy and sell opportunities.
And so we teach you how to use that so that you can then use and trade on things that we may not follow on our watch list.
And then we have a chat room where you can chat with us back and forth.
And then some rooms are like, we're talking now, VIP room.
If you want to trade more frequently, want more hand-holding, you want the trade options or futures, you join that room, that room costs more.
But the ROI on it is, what you get out of it is scary compared to what you put into it.
It's definitely in your favor.
And then we, you know, we have our training courses.
So it's a really complete package for a very low cost.
And so that's how we do it.
So when you join, you get access to the training materials.
You immediately get access to the alerts.
You get access to our algorithms.
You get access to the chat room.
The only thing you don't have access to yet is the bot.
And I'm working on getting that coded in so that you'll get access to the output from the bot so that you can then see.
Other trades that I may not signal out, and you can evaluate those on your own.
And that bot is based on all the other things that we've done, so we know the signal's good there.
So that's Trade Genius in a nutshell.
And then what we've done, Lionel, is obviously every time we talk, I put specials together so that you can use promo code back to school if you just want to buy things that are not discounted.
And you have until the 24th to take advantage of that, midnight.
And then we have seven bundles that are already pre-discounted, 65% off.
They're scary good deals.
I think people would like them, take advantage of them, and you're then set and ready to go.
You literally can start the next day with us.
And then if you need a lot of training or hand-holding, obviously, if you're new, it takes you a little bit of time to learn the lingo.
You know, drink from the fire hose.
You know, you're basically walking in your third string quarterback and just got thrown into the game.
So things are a little fast at first, but after a while you get kind of used to it and comfortable.
And then it's like, oh, this was not that hard ever.
And so we try to make it easy for you.
May I be gratuitous in my praise for you and what I've noticed.
What I thought I knew by, I'm sorry to say this, watching Or hearing or reading news and hearing the same drone, the mantra, the rote repetition of others regarding inflation and recession and that sort of thing.
You disabuse me of those facts by saying, no, that may be an interesting headline, but from the investment point of view, this is where you need to look.
And more often than not, you have been encouraging, not pie in the sky, but encouraging As far as reconditioning and refocusing reality.
Does that make sense?
Am I getting that correct?
Yeah, I mean, look, when you, you know, obviously when you listen to anybody, you have to understand what is he selling, right?
I'm on the show here, I'm educating, but obviously I'm selling my service.
So, you know, you kind of need to know what people are selling when they communicate with you, right?
So you have Jim Cramer on there.
He's selling you stock picks, but is he selling you stock picks to make you money?
Or is he selling stock picks to satisfy his customer?
You're not his customer.
You're part of the service.
And that's the same with CNBC.
You think they're selling you information to help you become more wealthy, but really what they're doing is selling advertising.
And they're never going to go against their advertisers.
So you look at biotech, right?
The media companies will never turn their back on the people who do 90% of their advertising, right?
You're talking bear and drugs, right?
Bear and drugs, that's all you see on commercials anymore.
And so they're not going to go out there and do exposés on drugs and bear, right?
They're going to either ignore it or poo-poo it.
So when you're listening to information and when you're absorbing information, even from other sites or shows or whatever, You've got to be a bit of a Berean in there.
And a Berean is a term from the Bible meaning you've got to do your own homework.
You've got to test everything everybody says.
Test what I say.
Test what you say.
You have to test it.
You have to make sure if you're hearing it from multiple sources, you know, does Bob have good references?
You know, has Lionel been right in the past?
Those are the things that people need to start doing more and more.
Because you can see, you know, we're not given facts anymore.
We're given narratives.
And so what you have to understand is that, you know, are you going along with the narrative because that's what you want to hear?
Or is that the right thing to do to make you money?
I heard a long time ago from a friend I traded with.
This is about 15 years ago.
He gave me information.
I was struggling.
I was in a dry patch.
I couldn't figure things out.
The market wasn't doing what I thought it was doing.
And I was getting really frustrated, and I started blaming the market.
And my friend looked at me.
And he said, Bob, do you want to be right or do you want to make money?
And basically what he's saying to me is that you're wanting things to happen that is not happening because you're not understanding what is happening.
And that's when I started to really try to understand what really moves the markets.
And I'll tell people now, so what moved the markets a year or two years ago is not what's moving the market today.
What's moving the market today is Fed liquidity.
And so what Fed liquidity is, is basically the money in which they empower the banks to drive economic activity, and they take some of that money and they put it into their trading accounts, and that drives the animal spirits in the stock market.
Well, the Fed has been reducing liquidity now for quite some time.
And by the way, we have an algorithm that follows liquidity.
So we know whether it's going up or going down.
It's been going down into this Fed meeting.
So that's not good.
So the Fed is determined to try to kill animal spirits here because they think that's going to nip inflation in the bud.
So you need to understand those things.
And you're not going to hear that from anybody on TV.
They don't tell you that stuff.
You know, it's kind of like the secret sauce.
They don't really want you to know those things.
So last year was all about derivatives, you know, retail buying call options.
They leveraged those poor people.
And now those guys are gone.
All those retail traders are gone.
Gone, gone, gone.
We laugh in our room because we said we're the last of the retail traders, you know, because they got caught up in the hype of it and they changed course.
And, you know, it changed course.
Remember when those guys said, oh, hey, we've been insider trading.
We're going to stop now because we're professionals magnanimous at the Fed.
Remember that?
Well, that was the top in the market.
They basically gave themselves an excuse to get out.
You know, so they can't be blamed later.
Why'd you sell at the top?
Well, we didn't sell at the top.
We sold because it was the right thing to do.
We changed our ethical spirit.
So those are the things you look at.
And so, you know, that's a long-winded saying is you got to hear things multiple times from multiple places and in multiple formats.
And there'll always be trades, so don't worry about running into that.
If you hear from somebody, it's a really good trade and you rush into it.
They're selling to you.
You're what's called their excellent liquidity.
They're selling to you to get out.
That's kind of our philosophy on things in the markets.
I don't even watch TV.
I don't watch any business news shows.
I flip through all the Twitter feeds every day because I'm looking for sentiment and seeing where the crowd is leaning because the crowd is usually wrong.
The crowd is usually late.
And so that's kind of where we are.
But I just look at right now, we're just looking at liquidity.
And until the Fed starts pushing more money into the market, you can just expect more of this grind down that we've been having.
Now, episodically, we get these bear market rallies.
But, you know, they stop at a certain level, which we know about, too.
So we know that.
And if I could do a not-so-humble brag, but last Monday a week.
The market was up.
Everybody says soft landing.
Get ready for the Fed.
Our systems were telling us Fed pulled liquidity.
The market's going to go down.
And we went ahead and we bought spy puts.
And we're still in them.
And that's been, what, six trading days?
And the market is down quite a bit from that point.
So now tomorrow, you know, the Fed's going to give us new information.
And so we have to then kind of be open to, you know, are we going to continue down?
We're going to continue up.
Our guess, our speculation is down, but we're kind of neutral in our positioning right now because, you know, we don't know what kind of political forces are being applied to the Fed.
Remember, the Fed is not independent.
I'm sure all your listeners know that.
They're not independent.
They work for the banks and they work for the politicians.
And so depending on where they're feeling the heat, they can flip from being as hawkish as you can be You know, more doves than what Prince had in his song, right?
So, you know, you have that to keep an eye on as well.
So Fed Day is going to be big.
And then follow on to that, we go right into the earnings reports.
And after that, we go into the elections.
So the markets can be quite volatile.
But secular trends are telling us there's not enough energy in the world, okay?
People aren't rushing the bonds to get out of the stock market.
They're rushing the energy to get out of the stock market.
So it's putting pressure on the Fed to keep trying to raise rates until they break something.
So those are the areas that we're looking at.
Nothing else really matters to me.
And then we're going into a recession.
The cake is baked.
How deep it is is really the only question.
And I know people say we're in a recession already.
What we're in is a technical recession.
Far be needed to agree with Joe Biden, but we're not in a recession yet.
We're in a technical recession due to inventories from import-exports, but we're going into a recession, a real one, the one that everybody feels, okay?
And that's going to be playing out over the next six to nine months.
May I ask you a question?
You know, one time I was watching an interview with Alan Greenspan and McNeil Lehrer, one of the two, I forget.
And they asked Alan Greenspan, who can fire you?
Who can replace you?
And he said, no one.
I will never forget that.
The president appoints the Fed chairman, but he can't be removed.
I have never heard of anything like that in my life.
Every now and then it will come up and you'll hear a Rand Paul and a Ron Paul, you know, audit the Fed.
What does the Fed do?
Nobody really knows.
But in terms of your prognostications, how critical is that?
What is the Fed?
Is this an alien force?
Does it actually assist?
This is the stupidest question I've ever asked, but I can ask you because you know more.
What does the Fed really do?
What do we look for?
What is the goal and what is the reality?
Okay, you asked a stupid question because I usually give stupid answers, but we'll set aside that joke for a second.
So the Fed...
The Fed was set up ostensibly to provide a backstop for banks.
So the problem banks have, and it's going to be more than a one-minute answer, I think it's important for people to understand.
What the banks do is they borrow short, right, which means that they're getting deposits from you and I that can leave the bank at any time, but they're lending long.
What lending long means is that the loans are for a longer duration.
Now, they have factors in there saying, hey, only 4% or 5% of the money will ever leave the bank, so we know what percentage that we can do.
For those times that they get caught upside down where they need more cash than they have access to, they're supposed to then take the assets that they own and put it on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, and then the Federal Reserve then provides them with the cash.
They need to satisfy the depositor, right?
That's the purpose of, quote, unquote, what we were sold.
And then they added to it, well, they can control the short-term rate.
But in reality, what the central bank is, is allows politicians to be able to deficit spend without having to do the legislative process.
So they basically took a limited cake of revenue that gets received through taxation and tariffs and so on and so forth.
And then they just deficit spend and they created this prime broker model, which then allows the or requires the banks to purchase any bond from auction that the federal government puts out there that doesn't get absorbed by the.
That they don't take in on revenue, and then it allows the legislators to then agree to things that they wouldn't normally agree to if you had a balanced budget process.
So that's it on that side.
So that's the one owner of the bank or the politicians, because the politicians set up a way in which the Federal Reserve, through the prime banks, have to buy our bonds.
So the banks prosper for this because the banks do the same thing.
The banks are supposed to have leverage ratios of like 8 to 1. What 8 to 1 means is that if they have a million dollars in deposits, they can lend out $8 million in loans.
And then they take that and you can rehypothecate it, meaning that you can put in that money and eventually that just rolls out to almost 10x.
You get to a point where you have Germany at 40 to 1, meaning that a 2.5% reduction in the asset value of the bank makes the bank insolvent.
So the banks like the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve allows them to, number one, They can hide those discrepancies very easily because, like in 2008, the banks got in trouble because they had to mark the market certain assets.
Well, they changed the rules saying you only have to mark the market if the asset is impaired.
But you can always throw the asset onto the Federal Reserve balance sheet, and you get to determine whether it's impaired or not.
Impaired anymore, meaning that literally that note got dissolved.
The other thing that the Federal Reserve has done for the banks, it allows the banks to take free money.
So they have these deposits on file, right, from depositors, from investors.
They have money that came in from the bonds they purchased.
They have those assets.
They get pushed that all onto the Federal Reserve, and it's called reverse repos, meaning that I give it to the bank, and I'm lending it to the bank.
I mean, to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve is paying me interest on that.
Now the banks don't even have to lend money out, and they earn money.
And guess who pays for that?
We do, because the Federal Reserve takes all the profit it takes from getting the interest, right?
You know, when Uncle Sam has to pay the interest tab, right?
He's not paying some nominal investor out there.
I mean, for the most part, the Federal Reserve owns most of the federal debt.
So they share it back with the...
They share it back with the federal government.
So all you're doing is really devaluing your currency.
Our federal government cannot go bankrupt.
Okay?
And so it just can keep devaluing its currency.
And so other countries have trouble because they're not the reserve currency, but we're the reserve currency.
So the Federal Reserve is a big enabler.
We have international investors that own Prime.
They own the preferred shares.
Of the member banks, the member banks get 6% basically dividend for being participants in this environment.
They don't do anything for it.
They just get 6% of our money.
And then they enable the politicians.
So that's the Federal Reserve.
You'll never hear a Democrat ever criticize the Federal Reserve because it goes into their Cuts in their social program.
You'll never hear a Republican criticize the Federal Reserve because in the past it cut into their defense spending.
But things are changing now.
Basically the Republican Party now has become basically what it was maybe in the 1880s, 1890s, up to World War I where we become Fortress America.
We don't want to be involved in foreign entanglements.
So things are going to change again.
So what started the Federal Reserve?
In 1907 or 1913, 1907 was a panic, may end with one of the political parties having no need for the Federal Reserve anymore.
In fact, you know, it's become an anathema to their viewpoint.
So I hope that was a good answer for you.
That was the best answer.
And I'm not saying this merely because you're here.
That is the best explanation I have ever heard regarding one of the...
The last of the enigmas.
Bob Kudla, right now I understand that if anybody listening were to go to TradeGeniusAcademy.com and use the promo code FALL, you would get 50% off of non-bundled items.
In fact, this is going to be listed on our...
Page here for people to use.
Explain basically what that entitles them to and why this is the greatest deal ever recorded in the history of humanity.
Well, the 50% off is you take the retail price that's in the store and you take 50% off.
And you have until Saturday to do that.
The bundled items are already pre-discounted 65% off.
So you don't get additional 50% off of that where I'd be working for you instead of for Trade Genius.
So, but yeah, these are just good deals.
You know, I mean, best deal in the world, look, I think they're fairly valued services for what you get.
And we're probably, our costs are 10 to 15% what other people charge that do similar things than myself.
And you'll get nearly what you get out of what we do.
I mean, look, we let you look at the kimono, so you get to use our algorithms.
A lot of these people are gurus and black magic wave of wine.
You never know how they do what they do.
We show you.
Here it is.
Not that hard.
You know, you're your own worst enemy.
And so we put you in a position of knowledge.
You know, at some point, we'd love for you to be independent.
You know, I have people with me for years, and they don't need me to trade.
They're here for the community.
They're here to learn.
They're here to educate.
They're here to actually participate.
To them, it's like joining a club.
And the other people, they're just sponges.
They're just absorbing knowledge, you know.
But you and I talk about it every day.
I do this stuff for people all day long.
People ask me these kind of questions all day long.
But it's fascinating.
And it's fascinating.
And you're able, first of all, your proficiency with the subject is one thing.
But we don't know what to believe.
And I, again, I thank you.
Trade Genius.
Let me just say this one more time.
TradeGeniusAcademy.com Use a promo code FALL, F-A-L-L, for 50% off of non-bundled items.
And you can also learn how to trade the markets the same way Bob Kudla did and does.
And as always, my friend, it is such a pleasure.
And you have been fascinating with what you consider to be, eh, just your off-the-cuff subject matter is more than I've heard in 10 years of assiduous watching of anything on the media.
And I thank you again, sir.
Well, thank you.
Very kind.
Well, have a great day, Dale, I know.
Thank you so much.
We'll talk again very, very soon.
Bob Kudla from Trade Genius Academy.
Thank you, sir.
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