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July 12, 2022 - Lionel Nation

25:51

World Economic Chaos Catastrophe and Implosion

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	The world, as we know, right now seems to be absolutely frenetic in terms of financials, in terms of economics.
	And last time we talked about it to our good friend Bob Kudlop at Trade Genius Academy to lend some rational thought to it.
	Bob, thank you so much again for being with us.
	First question, very, very quickly, How bad is it?
	How frenetic?
	How scared should we be?
	Can opportunities exist now?
	Yeah, I mean, from an economic standpoint, look, I think the cake's baked that we're going to go into a recession, but that doesn't necessarily mean that, and I have to look at it from my hat, which is a trader standpoint, it just means a different opportunity.
	Okay, and so, you know, From a political standpoint, socioeconomic standpoint, you're starting to see a shift away from the globalists back to the normal people.
	I think you're seeing the pushback has begun.
	These things are all positive, but they're going to have to play themselves out.
	People always ask me, what's the world going to look like?
	The probabilities tell us that A June low was put in on the market and a June high was put in on the oil markets.
	The oil market usually will hold that high until September.
	It's already pulled back $30 from its highs, the oil market.
	Pretty big move, 30% down from its highs.
	And you'll see it maybe move back up in September again.
	But as we move into a recession, oil will basically become less of a factor as a...
	As a higher cost unless we're going with war with Russia or some other unannounced event.
	But the stock market has probably found it slow, too.
	And the Fed's likely to pivot after this July meeting because there won't be inflation for them to keep trying to fan the flame.
	So, yeah, we'll see a recession.
	We'll see a change in probably leadership in the Congress in November.
	Economically, we're going to have to...
	We're going to have to go through a recession, which is going to cause everybody to panic at the political level, and they're going to throw money at the people, and we're going to probably push back up higher again.
	You know, for us, is this really a matter of, are we going from a rotation, like we're in now, to a liquidation?
	And like I said, you and I were talking before the show, is that if oil is up and market's down, you move into energy assets.
	If the market's down and oil's down, which we're starting to see, is you move into the long bond.
	And people are like, what?
	The long bond?
	Oh, they told us bond market's going to, prices are going to go, yields are going to go through the roof.
	They won't.
	You'll probably have a chance to even refinance your loan again in the next 18 to 24 months because they're going to have to push down.
	The rate's back down towards zero again because the world's too saturated in debt.
	And if you're in Europe listening to this, you're in bigger trouble because you're kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place.
	But for the American audience, this is just an opportunity to shift your assets.
	From this growth inflation environment to a deflation recession environment, plenty of opportunities.
	In 2008, you could have doubled your money while the market was falling in half by just shifting your portfolio back into the U.S. Treasury markets.
	And so you have to hold your nose and you have to do the right thing for your portfolio, even though you don't want to necessarily support the profligate spending of the government.
	You have to be able to take care of your family first, and you move into those markets.
	And then after that, when they pivot, gold and silver will come back alive again.
	What are some of the main concerns that you've seen in all that is going on in the world right now?
	What are you really looking at that you think is critical from the investor point of view?
	Well, from the investor point of view is that...
	What we see is what's secular versus what's cyclical.
	And so, you know, what concerns me is that did they break the market, if you will?
	Did they break the economy with what they're trying to do?
	See, look, I think everything the Federal Reserve is doing is to punish Russia.
	It has very little to do with the economics that are...
	That are in front of us, okay?
	You know, if they're really worried about the things and they knew Russia was going to do this for the longest time, they would have prepared enough supply so that the American people and the Europeans would not be going through this.
	They wanted to create a hatred for Russia so that they can go in there and push their narrative against Russia.
	And I'm not going to get into is Russia good or bad, Ukraine good or bad.
	That's not my point.
	That's irrelevant to me, actually.
	So what I worry about is why they're doing it and what's the downstream effect of it.
	They overshot it, okay?
	They overplayed their hand.
	The dollar's too strong now, and we're getting a revisitation of what the Arab Spring looks like, but the whole world's starting to feel it.
	So my fear is that they can't rewind the yarn ball, okay?
	And what does that mean?
	And the worst-case scenario is that they lose control of the stock markets.
	And they lose control of the energy market.
	They lose control of the bond market at the same time and create basically a cascade.
	They almost did it in March, where they started to mess everything up at one time.
	But the energy markets actually started going up higher again, and people were able to move their money.
	Because, look, money needs to move somewhere.
	We have to know where the place is to move.
	So my worry all the time is, am I going to get the right movement right?
	But it seems pretty obvious to me that we're moving from an inflationary environment back into, if not deflationary, but disinflationary again.
	And we know places to make money.
	Dividend-paying stocks, you want to be in food stocks that pay dividends for sure, because they haven't fixed the food issue yet.
	And you want to be in energy stocks that pay dividends.
	Because energy is not going to zero, and you want to be in long bonds.
	If you're in those three things going into a recession, you'll come out of the recession plus on your wealth when all your peers are down 40% or 50% because they stayed with a passive age-related broker portfolio kind of approach.
	And so that's what I'm looking at.
	We have midterms in November.
	We have 2024.
	What should the investor be looking at in terms of...
	And we want to keep...
	I don't want to say keep politics out of it, but it matters.
	It's critical.
	We have to consider this.
	Give me some scenarios that you're looking at.
	If there is a shift in the House and the Senate and elsewhere in November, will that mean a different tack for the investor and from Trade Genius?
	Yeah, so let's make an assumption that the House and Senate go Republican.
	So basically, the entire woke agenda now is destroyed.
	So you have the Supreme Court unwinding their administrative approach to legislating, okay?
	And then you're going to have the Congress that's going to actively and avidly oppose The agenda from the Biden administration.
	So, markets like when the government can't do more than it already does.
	And so, you're likely to see what I call the low-hanging fruit thing.
	Like, if we're in recession, they'll all agree to stimulus kind of stuff.
	Okay?
	But, you know, you're going to see...
	And it all depends on Biden's health, too.
	You know, this is another thing.
	You know, I mean, I'm not telling you people that are listening to anything new, but...
	Joe Biden is not running the country, okay?
	So, obviously, he can't think clearly enough and strategically enough anymore.
	He doesn't even know what it is when he wakes up every day.
	It's a really sad state of events.
	It's a sad state of events.
	So, we don't know.
	And the people behind them are probably, you know, they have their political religious convictions, so they don't care if they burn Rome down.
	So they just simply have to be stopped.
	And so I think you're going to see a lot of court stoppage, and you're going to see a lot of legislative stoppage.
	The markets are going to like that, okay, because they know he can't do any more damage.
	And around the world, we actually need to see...
	You know, like Justin Trudeau fails, okay?
	We need to see a positively conservative person enter politics at the UK as a new prime minister, right?
	We need to see the farmers in Germany and Netherlands.
	The WEF.
	If those things start happening, then I think we're going to still see a pendulum swing back towards normalcy.
	And if not, then I think we're going to see a deeper and deeper recession and depression.
	And when I mean depression, I'm not necessarily talking Great Depression.
	I mean, it's just an extended recession that's deeper than most.
	But I don't think that's going to happen.
	And in 2020, I think, look, I think the whole world is shifting right.
	Okay?
	Look, I'm right.
	I would consider a right-of-center person, but I'm not a fascist.
	And that's a misnomer anyway.
	A fascist and a communist are basically pianists, right?
	So what I'm talking about, an ultra-conservative would be somebody who's so libertarian that you get Mexico, okay?
	That's not what I'm referring to.
	I'm referring to basically core, you know, state-right, you know, constitutional conservatism.
	There's a role for government.
	The role for government is to serve the people not to engage in activism.
	I think you're going to see that happening around the world.
	In some ways, Russia did the world a favor in a sense that it exposes basically the weaknesses of this neoliberal approach that's trying to take over the world.
	The fact that Russia can't beat...
	Ukraine is good for Ukraine because eventually they'll have to come to some sort of consensus.
	So I just think that the world's shifting right.
	China's in big trouble.
	Big trouble.
	Yeah, so maybe next show we do, we can talk just about China.
	But people can take their China hats off.
	China is basically a paper-shaped tiger.
	Their GDP is 30% less than people think.
	They're a one-trick pony of lower costs.
	Their quality sucks.
	They don't have the supply chain exposed them.
	We're seeing a bigger shift of supply chains back to the United States than we've ever had before.
	So you're seeing the Flat Earth Society blow away economic.
	Thomas Friedman, the Flat Earth is gone.
	You're going to start seeing basically tribalism come back into the world again where, you know, I want my greenhouse in.
	In my town, I don't want my greenhouse in California if I live in Pennsylvania.
	You know, you're going to see, I want my supply chains next to my manufacturing plant.
	You know, I want to hire my neighbor.
	You know, if you're coming into the city, into my suburb, I don't know you, I don't trust you, you're not getting in my store.
	You're going to start seeing more and more and more of that.
	I think people are tired of this anonymous, overreaching, federal, transparent, global, where there's no accountability.
	So all things are good.
	But we have to transition through that.
	And I think that's going to happen all the way through 2024.
	You know, I think you're going to just see a wholesale ship.
	Look, no further than the Hispanic community, Lionel.
	When they came on board, the Democrats thought they had that thing locked and cocked.
	And they didn't realize, you know, Hispanic people are conservative, family, Catholic.
	You know, they like what I like.
	They want to work hard.
	Okay.
	They didn't like being treated like crap when they were trying to come across the border because they were poor.
	Everybody could have done that better, but obviously letting people poor across the border, they don't like that either.
	You saw a big shift in the Hispanic community.
	I think that's going to be a big check on the leftist approach because they don't subscribe to that.
	These people now are like our grandparents and our parents.
	They want the next one up.
	They don't want to stop being poor like the black community because you keep pouring another group in behind them and they never can climb because you just keep drying them down.
	So all these things are good things to happen.
	And technology is just going absolutely crazy.
	Look, I'm a big believer in renewable energy.
	I'm not a big believer in this approach.
	I think this is a 30 to 50 year trend that should just play out.
	You know, but the left doesn't see it that way.
	They want to kill fossil fuel.
	They want to kill nuclear.
	Reason being is they want to control your life.
	If a country is totally nuclear, right, or they're independent with fossil fuels, they don't need to hear from you at the UN.
	They don't need to hear from you at the IMF.
	But if they can make you a vassal, they'll make you a vassal.
	So all those things from a macro standpoint, the pendulum swung too hard.
	And, I mean, you and I, we saw it coming.
	We were voices screaming in the wilderness saying, people are not going to like this stuff.
	You know, you could tell people for so long, you know, that they're skinny if they're 40 pounds overweight.
	And after a while, they look in the mirror and go, no, I'm not skinny, you know?
	And people say, then I don't trust you anymore.
	And I think that's what's happened.
	The trust is gone.
	The trust is broken.
	And now people are going to take back.
	They're countries, and I think that's a two-to-three-year process, but I think it's going to happen, and I think that's all good.
	I'm very concerned about what's happening in Sri Lanka with the World Economic Forum, with Klaus Schwab, with these ESGs, with basically farmers being told that they can't use nitrogen, and not only that, but the Dutch farmers.
	You know, to me, little old me, there's water, food, and energy, and everything else we can argue.
	All day long.
	And I'm hearing, I've never heard more, Bob Kudlow, in recent times than I have from farmers.
	And farmers are screaming, and I'm thinking, farmers?
	If this isn't a wake-up call, how does that work into your investment strategies?
	Yeah, well, we own food stocks, so we think this is an 18-month...
	Problem that has to work itself out.
	Look, the farmer in America, at least the farm checks that I do, is that the input costs across the board, their costs have gone up 15% to 20%.
	Now, you know, you hear the outrageous 100% there, but overall, what I've been hearing is that their input costs are up 15% to 20% year over year.
	The thing that's happening, and that's going to play itself up for the next 24 months.
	Oil and diesel, kerosene and propane are starting to come down again.
	The fertilizer prices will start coming down again in 2024 when they're ramping up production worldwide.
	Fertilizer out of the ground is not rare.
	It's just that it wasn't profitable because it was held on a cartel and they kept the prices low.
	Well, this whole supply chain disruption made prices go up, so there's more supply coming out of the ground, if you will.
	And it'll play itself out, and the fertilizer prices will stabilize in 2024.
	So the farms will start stabilizing again.
	And so what really ticks the farmers off now is that they're told climate change CO2, but now they had a shift.
	Now it's climate change methane, climate change nitrogen.
	And the reason why nitrogen is a big thing is because they need pneumonia, and pneumonia comes from natural gas, okay?
	And they don't want people using natural gas.
	That's where the whole Sri Lanka thing came in.
	You got to go organic, can't use, you know, methane, which is ammonia, you know, yada, yada, yada.
	Don't use, you know, false organics, you know, and then a 12% reduction in their food production and the country went into bankruptcy.
	And so the farmers aren't stupid.
	They see it.
	In the Netherlands, they're like, okay, and in Canada, same crap.
	And I think New Zealand, too.
	And so you get to a point where it, The phrase I always use for people, things don't matter to people until they matter to people.
	Right, exactly.
	Now they matter to a plurality of people, and they're going to start kicking these people out.
	Now, Bob, let's talk about Trade Genius Academy and what I can do.
	I want to learn from your expertise.
	I want to join this cabal, this cadre, this coven of smart investors.
	What can I do?
	Walk me through it.
	Teach me.
	Walk me through it.
	Help me.
	Yeah.
	So what we do at Trade Genius is our approach is that there's three things that we look at.
	The probabilities and seasonality, make sure that we're in the right place.
	Then we look at levels, you know, because the stock market operates kind of like as a radio wave, right?
	It basically is a drunk going down a road.
	It's just bouncing across the walls all the time.
	It's heading in a direction.
	And so we look at those levels to say, are we buying that dip or are we selling that rip, if you will?
	And then we look at the momentum and say, does it support us in buying that dip and selling that rip?
	And then we just mix that all into what I call our indicators and our proprietary algorithms, and it comes out with trade signals.
	And so we have trade signals that we give people every day while you're learning how to use the system, but more importantly, we teach you how the system works.
	We give you access to these indicators.
	So you have them.
	And we have chat rooms where you can communicate and ask questions.
	And then we have a whole series of education packages.
	Part of the service.
	22, 23 videos on how to trade, how to trade our way, how to use the indicators.
	And if you use those effectively, you're going to make money.
	And we have the track record that proves that that's the case.
	And how you get engaged, you just go to tradelikeagenius.com or tradegeniusacademy.com.
	We have bundles that are 65% off.
	We trade the stock market.
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	The bundle is already pre-discounted.
	Prices are good until Saturday.
	We price things for it to be in your best interest to join us, so the pricing is very value priced, and you get to return that investment very fast by just some of the trades that you get in with us.
	So that's how you do it with us, and you literally can start the next day.
	So if you just go ahead and join, you hit the store, you hit select, you buy your credit card, PayPal kind of approach, and you immediately get a welcome package from us via mail, email.
	It tells you how to get it in the chat rooms, tells you how to get your charting program set up, and how to get the signals, and you're good to go.
	And that's it.
	And so it's a Saturday to take advantage of it, Lionel.
	And I find it so interesting because, as we've said, as many of us watch, we want to be involved, we want to pay attention.
	We don't hear this.
	We hear people saying a lot of things for various reasons, their own programming and the like.
	And it kind of stultifies us.
	It kind of paralyzes us.
	But you're saying right now, now is the time to do it.
	Pick the level you want.
	Get in.
	The weather is fine.
	The water is fine.
	Now is the time to do it.
	No matter the forecast, there's always time to get into the markets and various markets through Trade Genius, which is, I think, invaluable, especially now.
	Yeah.
	And look, there's always a bull market somewhere.
	So like I said, Energy market's down and the stock market's down, the bond market's good to go.
	So you're going to make money.
	And here's the thing, too.
	I've been doing this a long time, and I've been alive a long time.
	Things are never as bad as people tell you they're going to be, and they're never going to be as good as people tell you what they're going to be.
	And I worked for a software company before I retired and kind of went on my own and started doing this.
	I'm kind of in software business still, but in a different way.
	But we work for a company where...
	We worked on Sigma levels of quality.
	I mean, that's the likely thing to happen.
	And, you know, we were at what's called a Six Sigma tolerance, meaning you can only have one area out of 100,000 events.
	Well, when you watch TV, they have a Six Sigma up every day, okay?
	So the way we trade, we trade two Sigma events.
	What's most likely to happen?
	What's probably going to happen?
	So, you know, you want to be able to take action daily on things, but people tend to...
	They tend to gravitate to the worst-case scenarios and best-case scenarios.
	But you make all your money trading the likely scenarios.
	And so that's how our system's geared.
	Even if you think energy's going through the roof, well, seasonality tells you that June into July into August, oil falls.
	Well, guess what?
	People were told on TV, oil's going to $200 a barrel.
	Oil's down $30.
	Well, we knew that.
	Now, could we be wrong?
	Yeah, but probabilities tell us we're not.
	So you go with the probabilities and let the probabilities tell you you're wrong.
	And so you go with the likely scenarios, and if you do the likely scenarios, you're going to make money.
	And that's all we do.
	We take the likely scenario and the seasonality, we take the likely scenario and the level, we take the likely scenario and the momentum, and boom, you get a buy signal, you take the trade.
	We call it see trade, take trade.
	Don't think trade.
	Once you start imposing your own narratives into your trading, You tend to make the wrong trades.
	So, trust me, you know, you're getting hundreds of thousands of inputs into these signals, not my signals, into the market signals, whether it's good or bad.
	And so, it's called the wisdom of the crowd, and that is a thing, okay?
	The crowds are usually right in the beginning.
	They're usually wrong at the end.
	So that's how you have to work at it.
	And we just codified it.
	All the things I said to you is irrelevant.
	We give you the indicators.
	We give you the training.
	We give you the signals.
	Go.
	Don't overthink it.
	We demystified it for you.
	Well, Bob Cutler from Trade Genius Academy.
	First, I want to say something on a personal note.
	I feel better having talked to you.
	I have been walking around feeling, like most people, That the end is nigh.
	Everything's going to collapse.
	Housing is down.
	Crypto's gone.
	Everything.
	Mortgages are up.
	Disaster.
	I mean, this is Sodom and Gomorrah.
	Eschatology.
	The end of times.
	And you have made me think, no, wait a minute.
	Calm down.
	Not yet.
	Everything's cyclical.
	And whatever happens, as you say, there's a bull market somewhere.
	Bob Kudler from Trade Genius Academy.
	Thank you so much for being with us.
	I will have the particular special.
	Great.

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