All Episodes
Previous Next
Oct. 25, 2024 - Louder with Crowder
32:58
2024 Election Exclusive: Why you Shouldn’t be Fooled by the Early Voting Data
| Copy link to current segment

Time Text
*Mario plays* Glad to be with you.
If you're watching on Rumble and YouTube, usually this is a Mug Club, well really only on Mug Club, but we do have some Mug Club exclusive data analysis because we've been putting a lot of work into it, paying a lot of the dough.
Cheddar.
Is that what people call it?
Cheddar.
I don't know.
I'm looking at, specifically, some data that we see right now on whether Trump, there's been some concern Donald Trump is losing his base.
And we're going to be talking about that and looking at these swing states and the polls.
Again, there's a lot of good news, but you are being sold some information that may not be entirely correct as it relates to some key swing states.
The good news is there's something that you can do about it.
So before we get into it, let me ask you, which blue states are part of the blue wall do you think President Trump is most likely to end up flipping?
Don't cheat.
Don't fast forward.
And then you can comment afterward when you see our analysis.
Josh has a bet on this, by the way.
He's got a prop bet on Trump flipping a solid blue state.
So whichever one, make sure it's on his list.
It's like 10 states listed.
You just have to pop it.
That's disgusting.
And here in search here because this is also under his domain.
One of our brilliant researchers here, Lane the Brain.
Also known as Ginger Snap.
He doesn't like that.
But it's a term of endearment because the ladies love him.
How are you?
Good.
You know, glad to be here to work on numbers because that's what my degree is in is math.
That's exciting.
That's true.
No better person to bring in.
And you're a friendly ghost.
So...
All white.
It's always tough with the...
Well, I'm so tan that I thought I could do it.
I know.
The truth is, that's kind of a marvel that, you know, obviously he's a man who, he's no stranger to the weights, and that's hard to make quite apparent when you are that pale.
That's true.
I don't really get the, you know, like the black dudes get that nice lighting.
So do the white dudes in bodybuilding.
The clear dudes do not.
Not enough contrast.
We present to you the next Mr.
Olympia, Larry Bird!
So, we wanted to get into this because we're hearing a lot of claims made out there, both on the left and on the right.
And it's easy to get nerdy but also lose the bigger picture.
And a lot of people will tell you, hey, don't try and compare this to other elections because everything is changing very rapidly.
I think there's some truth to that, but there's a difference between that and being disingenuous in making comparisons in order to try and make one side feel as though defeat is imminent.
That's what we're seeing from CNN.
They are not pulling apples to apples comparisons, and we actually have had our team here pour through the data to be able to make that comparison.
Because CNN wants you to believe that an entire segment on the fact that Donald Trump is losing his core base, non-college educated white voters.
We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump's direction.
So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same.
But in fact, it's moving a little bit away from him.
So this is Trump's march with non-college white voters.
Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him.
It's actually moving slightly away.
So you go back eight years ago, he won him by 33.
You go back four years ago, he won him by 31.
Now what we look is we see that in the latest average of polls, he's only up by 27.
Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double-digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development.
Now, multiple problems with his analysis there, which we will get to, not the least of which, by the way, is, to be fair, it can be quite hard to poll non-college-educated white voters.
Is that a Rob Zombie film?
That's Margaritaville in the Lake of the Ozarks.
He's a parrot head, yeah.
So we do have some problems with the analysis here, and Lane and our team back here went through.
Let me give you the first problem.
You were pointing this out.
The source of the claim being made there, and that's Enten is the guy's name.
Yeah, Harry Enten.
Harry Enten.
The source of his claim is Enten's aggregate.
It's just like Prouders aggregate.
Now, here's the thing.
We are actually able to tell you where our data is coming from and which data is exclusive.
We, as far as I understand, Lane, please correct me, could not find the details of his data published in Anywhere, correct?
I would like to correct you, but I can't because we cannot.
Not anywhere.
It's not anywhere.
This is not to say it doesn't exist or they didn't run a focus group of two people from Pittsburgh.
I don't know how he got the information, but it's not available to us.
Okay, so here's a problem number two, by the way, that if you look at...
They're comparing...
Explain this second problem for people who don't know, and let's kind of simplify it.
Compared to 2024, right, the results that we have seen in these elections...
Right, so they're comparing polling right now with the white voters to what the exit poll showed after the actual election in 2020.
So actual results versus polling.
Right, actual results.
But we all know that the silent Trump voter is a real thing, and they don't tend to answer as heavily in polls as other voters.
And we'll get into that a little later on.
And by the way, when people say that Republicans outperform polls, what they mean to say, because you'll always get someone on the left saying, oh, that's not what happened in the midterms.
No, no.
What they mean to say is when Donald Trump is on the ballot.
Donald Trump outperforms polls.
There hasn't been an exception to that nationally yet.
And that's significant.
Okay, here's the third key problem, is that CNN's analysis claimed that the polling shows Kamala is holding her own.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That would seem pretty bad.
It would seem bad.
It would seem quite bad, which brings us to this exclusive Mug Club analysis.
All right.
And we will make this, of course, all references available to you.
Link in the description, lotwithcredit.com.
And some of this is exclusive, a lot of work into it.
So the numbers that we crunched, Lena, now you spend a lot of time with this.
Right.
What do we have?
We have data from 2020 with non-college voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Right?
Yes.
Okay.
And a big problem that you see there, if we can bring up that still, is they used to include non-college educated voters.
It used to include people from vocational schools.
Correct.
Right.
So trade schools.
In 2020 it did.
Those were all in one category.
Yes.
Now that's been separated.
Now it's three separate categories.
Right.
So it's not an apples to apples comparison.
Exactly.
So the data that we've crunched makes the category as close as humanly possible to what we have seen in the last election.
Exactly.
Exactly.
Right?
And that number, when you look at that, comparing 2020, putting vocational schools or those who have attended them into that subset, 2020 compared to now, Trump is actually up 1.2% with all non-college educated people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Here's a caveat.
We were not able to find exclusively non-college educated white voters outside of Enten's analysis.
Of course, his aggregate.
And the reason for that, I believe, Lane, is that no one has done it.
No, I mean, we looked through every polling source that we could find and we ended up settling mostly with Emerson because their crosstabs are the most detailed.
And it does not include the specific category of white non-college educated voters.
Again, why Enten doesn't just share where he's getting that information from, I'm not quite sure.
It would be very easy for him to do so.
You're not quite sure?
Well, I am.
You're not quite sure?
That's called sarcasm.
Come on!
Yes.
No, I know.
It would be very easy just to say that.
So the difference is here, we're saying, hey, here is where we got it.
Yeah.
And I would actually, based on all the data we have available to us, again, if we were to look at crosstabs of white voters versus, let's say, black voters, you would imagine that white non-college educated voters would be slightly higher than the overall 1.2% overperformance compared to 2020.
Yeah.
Right.
It makes sense to see that kind of downward shift from 2016 to 2020 because you have a white dude that resonated with a lot of kind of the old school Union Democrats.
Kamala's not resonating with old school Union Democrats, mostly because they wouldn't even endorse her.
Right.
That's true.
Also, because they don't understand her.
Nobody does, to be fair.
Also, not to be underestimated, they severely dislike her.
Some might argue disdain.
So at this point, when this man is telling you in CNN, and you are seeing this, unfortunately, then parroted across other platforms as though it is gospel.
That's the source.
Kind of like when you're talking about the Nazi comment, talking about the effing Mexican comment.
One person said something one time, and then everyone else thinks it's legitimate.
This is actually some pretty good news, but it seems like the left may just be flat out lying about Donald Trump.
Again, like they do, by the way, in all of their political ads.
Add it! *laughter* Hey there, I'm Colonel Slanders, here to talk to you about Donald Trump.
That Yankee's got a little too big for his britches.
But don't worry, because he's no bigger than a minnow in a fishing pond.
Hey, did you know that he called our fallen soldiers losers and suckers?
Well, as a Southerner, this offends me more than oven-baked chicken or mixed marriages.
And if you're taking your juicy, savory God-blessed chicken and baking it in the oven, then you, my friend, are the loser and or the sucker, because sure as hell ain't finger-licking good.
Good lord, that's good chicken.
Goddamn!
This ad's paid for by the Colonels for Harris Family Pack Bucket.
Oh, it's just a regular pack?
You know, I gotta say, that feels like an old-school Democrat I could get the wrong one.
I'd have a beer with him.
What do you mean by that?
I'd have a nice mint julep.
So, we want to give you an update here, too, as far as polling that we have seen and early voting, which is pretty significant.
Some ships are a lot of good to see.
But some wrinkles.
Good news is, it's a problem that you can directly affect.
So, the RCP average that we see right now has Kamala ahead, and you can correct me if I'm wrong on anything, Lane, has Kamala ahead by 0.2%.
Yes.
Right?
Okay.
The last four polls have gone Donald Trump.
Give this another three, four, five days, six days.
That may flip to Donald Trump.
Wall Street Journal just had him up three.
Did they really?
Yes.
That bastion of right-wing extremism.
In all those polls, it's plus two or three, I believe.
I don't believe there's one in the last four that's plus one.
I think it's either two or three in those polls.
One more poll and that number goes away.
And here's where the overperformance that you see from Donald Trump in polls historically, assuming, by the way, that maybe, maybe pollsters haven't gotten it 100% right.
We've been told that they have at this point, so you can trust them.
And this is just one tool that you have available to you.
But we'll look at 2020, okay?
2020 at this point, Biden was up by 8.1%.
Wow.
Right?
In those polls.
Final popular vote?
He won by 4.5%.
So he won by half.
Yeah, he won by about half.
Kamala's up 0.2%.
So if it's even close to the overperformance, again, let's look at Hillary Clinton.
2016, she was up by 5.5 at this point in that election.
The final popular vote, she did win by 2.1%.
So again, about half.
Let's take the low number, the three.
They're off by three, the closest one they got with Hillary Clinton.
Right.
Three points?
That means Donald Trump wins the popular vote by two points.
It means that, yes, the popular vote is well within reach at this point.
That's one where I think the betting odds might actually be wrong a little bit because everyone has said, well, he's not going to lose the popular vote.
Yeah, they just assume it's going to happen.
Can you imagine the meltdown of Trump, like, way overperformed in California and won the popular vote but ended up losing the Electoral College?
That would be absolutely insane.
What do you think?
Why would you put that out in the ether?
Well, Because that would absolutely burn down Democrats' entire worldview.
Yes, it would.
James Carville would be in the White House.
The point is, they would be twisted and not.
I don't want it to happen.
No, no one wants it to happen.
James Carville would be out in the streets with an AR-15.
No, no, I get it, man.
No, but Harris...
James Harris won.
It don't matter.
It don't matter.
If she lost that popular vote, that's what matters.
You're making the rules, we just call them.
One of the electoral cards.
So...
Let's look at the swing states.
Right now, Donald Trump is leading in all swing states.
The average across all of them is Trump is up 0.9%.
Again, in 2020, Biden was leading in all swing states.
The average advantage he saw was about four points.
Four points!
That's about a five-point spread.
That's pretty significant.
And then we get to early voting.
So, again, it's too early to make all of these judgments, but we can certainly make the judgment that that guy in CNN likely full of crap, right?
That's safe?
Yeah, safe.
Most likely scenario.
I would sooner trust Frank Luntz with his hairpiece and white sneakers.
Always white sneakers.
Now, how many people are going to vote for Trump?
Show of hands.
Show of hands.
There you go.
That's 100%.
What was that?
Sorry, 90%.
More money, please.
Brilliant.
Yeah.
So let's look at the early voting here, 2020 versus now.
And Lane, make sure you kind of provide some context here, because some people may have a tough time with the sources that we are going to be giving to you, looking at the crosstabs and the references.
Right.
So we're pulling all the data from all available references and then looking at what best represents where we are right now, which is 12 days out from the election.
So all these early voting kind of statistics that we're going to see are comparing to the same 12 days out and voting in 2020.
Exactly.
And that's important because what you were talking about earlier, there's a difference in basically comparing polling before an election and then Exit points.
Huge difference.
So we're making sure that we're comparing at this exact moment in time because each day can make a significant difference.
Okay, so let's look at North Carolina.
What you have seen with early voting is a 14-point swing toward Republicans.
That means 14 points...
Along that scale toward Republicans.
That doesn't mean Republicans are winning by 14 points.
It means it's a 14-point difference in early voting now versus the exact time in the election in 2020.
That's huge.
Absolutely huge.
And what's the other key point that you were saying here, Lane?
Is that Democrats were leading in early voting until, if I'm not mistaken, yesterday morning?
Yeah, yesterday morning, actually, the total.
It's not just that there has been that 14-point swing, but now it's actually put Republicans into positive territory.
So they are, in terms of raw numbers, right now ahead in North Carolina.
Yeah, which is huge.
When you have a very close state, 10, 20, 30,000 votes, making sure that you get people out to start kind of winning.
Like, if all of these early voters vote early and then we have a terrible turnout on Election Day, yeah, that can be bad for Republicans.
But these are positive signs that if we keep doing what we're doing...
This could be very good.
Well, I will tell you this.
Before the hurricane, I was most concerned about North Carolina.
Yes.
I thought that it was a dark horse a lot of people weren't paying attention to.
And it didn't seem like maybe there was as good of a ground game there.
But it seems like now, again, it's not.
Nothing is a guarantee.
Nothing is a safe bet at this point.
So you need to do your port.
We cannot say port.
Did I say you need to do your port?
Your port.
You need to do your parts.
It's your worst nightmare.
Your car broke down.
And you don't do your port.
A good way to look at this, and I think when people use point, like the term point swing, 16-point swing, whatever, it's kind of hard to digest, but if you just think about it like in basketball or something, and the home team is down by five, and they hit a three-pointer.
Well, there's been a three-point swing in favor of the home team, but they're still down by three.
What happened in North Carolina is they hit enough shots that they're actually ahead now.
Right.
Yes.
Exactly.
So it could be, let's say, if Republicans were losing, it could take them from, let's say, 40...
I have a headache right now.
I said I wanted to puncture my skull with a nail gun.
You did it.
I brought a nail gun and you chickened out.
It's really hard to do math when you do have a headache.
Well, Lane did it too.
He said you hit a three-pointer when you're down by five and you're still down by three.
Just look.
Check the sources and the cross tabs.
It's the bad math.
It's contagious.
We've spent so much time watching Kamala Harris interviews that we are actually dumber.
I'll speak for seven minutes on the next point, please.
Yes.
At Notre Dame education.
Terrence Howard appreciates your math.
That's because I spent time with Pythagoras.
You did, huh?
It's the flower of life.
Why do you sound like you're going to cry?
It's just the way I talk.
Let's go.
Let's go to Nevada.
There's been a 16-point swing to Republicans.
And this is the first time, actually, that Republicans are leading early voting since 2008.
Have that right, Lane?
Yes, you do.
And a big reason for that is that the rural vote is, well, you have the Clark County, the wall is not as strong as it needed to be.
And the rural vote has been overperforming by a significant number.
I wonder why that is.
I wonder why the rural vote right now is coming out.
The people that are most, in my opinion, maybe the people that are most overlooked in this country.
They're all the time referred to, not just as flyover states, but even within states.
Like, alright, we care about Chicago, but we care about nothing else south of Chicago.
These people that have been marginalized, that are having to go to the grocery stores and pay some of the highest prices.
I wonder why they're like, you know what?
No, no, screw it.
I'm voting.
Right.
I think that's a huge point for us right now, because there's a lot of ground we can gain.
Yesterday, we took a chat from somebody saying, ah, people just don't vote because they think Chicago and Illinois is going to carry the state.
Sure.
You're getting a lot of those people this time around, hopefully, that are like, screw it, we're voting.
Right.
Yeah, I think you're right.
And of course, there's some anomalies because of COVID, the China virus in the rearview mirror here.
Hopefully, God willing.
Arizona.
Arizona.
We've seen a 16-point swing toward the Republican Party.
So that means that right now Republicans are actually leading by 53,000 votes and counting.
That's great.
And they've been leading from the beginning of early voting, and the reason that that, again, context matters, Republicans never led in the early voting in 2020.
So you've heard this a lot.
I've seen this on message.
Actually, Republicans always lead early voting, and they try and say Democrats led mail-in voting, Republicans led early voting.
Well, there wasn't as much of a gap, and it kind of goes state to state, but in Arizona, definitively, Republicans never led early voting in 2020 at all.
They're leading by 53,000.
Fox said they did.
Right.
That's right.
Yeah, exactly.
12 days before anybody else said they did.
That's right.
And they called it with, I believe it was, you know, we had to revise it.
0.01% of the votes.
Yeah, 0.01%.
Roughly.
They were like, watch, we're going to make this call.
People are going to like us for this.
Jeff voted.
One guy, and it's over, folks!
They got, like, their two top execs fired.
I know.
And it didn't even matter.
Why would you put your job of the life for that call?
What are you doing?
And here's a really messed up point, and I know that some of you are screaming at your screen right now, or if you're driving at your phone, eyes on the road.
Arizona has now claimed that it will take them likely 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
County leaders are asking voters for patience and to be prepared.
No.
Tight races, high interest in the election, and a two-page ballot are leaving Maricopa County officials warning of lines on election day and also warning it's going to take them 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
And by the way, of course, any interference or the steel is a figment of your imagination.
Sorry, at the last election in Maricopa County, I believe it was, you couldn't vote for about four hours, which, if you work for a living, maybe means you can't vote.
And by the way, yes, we do have more technology available to us than ever before.
But it's not going to be like previous elections where we didn't have said technology, and you know the results that night.
It's going to take a week and a half to two weeks, which, by the way, Should occur in no world if Republicans are leading the early voting.
Because they didn't lead last time.
You'd have to believe that Democrats would show up in such huge numbers on election day that there would be no way to call it.
How can you take that long to count votes?
I just looked this up last night.
Taiwan has like 10 plus million voters or something like that.
They counted every vote in six hours and you knew the winner of the election that night.
Well, yeah, that's because they have some kids like chained to the voting room.
Look how I can't see about it.
It looks spoiled.
Don't spoil about it.
Count about it.
No spoil.
They're using the abacus without actually having it in front of me.
Have you ever seen that when they do it from memory?
It's like, what the heck?
They do Asian math.
We count five minus three.
Yes, I know.
And get three.
No, no.
No, it happened.
It did.
I did it.
Guilty.
No, he did it.
You did the other one.
So let's go to Georgia.
Georgia.
And this is why it's kind of interesting.
Again, these things can shift, right, depending what kind of votes come in.
But there is reason to feel good about this at this moment in time.
Not overconfident.
Georgia, we're not saying the same kind of ghetto that you saw in North Carolina or Arizona, which may surprise people.
There's been a four-point swing to Republicans.
So a new poll actually did come out, which is pretty much only 28% of Georgia men support Kamala.
That's kind of surprising.
Oh, wow.
Good.
It's because she's been campaigning there a lot, Stephen.
I think that's the problem.
Yes, yes, that is the primary problem.
She won't leave.
Because there are a lot of just, I don't know if you know this, there are a lot of black voters in Georgia, a lot of black men in Georgia, which may be why, you know, 50% of Georgia men supported Biden, 28% not supporting Kamala.
I think you're right.
I think she spoke.
She spoke.
She's like the auntie that will never go home.
Yes, exactly.
Yes.
She would do better if she just said nothing.
She just left.
Just pull the Joe Biden strategy.
Go sit in a basement somewhere, see what happens.
50% of Georgia men supported Biden.
He looks like he could have been a slave owner.
He could have been alive.
You've got to be kidding me.
50% of the people in that state?
Atlanta is heavily gay, though, to be fair.
Oh, is it?
Oh, okay.
And they don't like women.
That makes sense.
It does.
It's adding up.
I guess it does.
We dive deep here.
Yes, we do.
Because Joe had a Grindr account.
Like, Anderson's at CNN. Oh, my gosh.
Can you imagine?
Oh, yeah.
What an erection kill that would be if you're right.
Like, hey, let me talk to you about...
Ah!
Come on, Jack.
They were going to head CNN in San Francisco, but they couldn't.
The two in the grinders just came with ice cream.
Swipe left.
Pennsylvania.
Okay, this is the most interesting one, and I know you're very passionate about this, Lane.
So we have seen a 19-point swing to Republicans.
Yeah, that's huge.
Here's something that you need to know, though.
And Scott Pressler's been doing great work there.
Phenomenal.
Most of what you've heard, by the way, almost is true as far as the good news.
But there is some context that really matters.
The good news is you can do something.
Republicans there would need a huge voter turnout to win Pennsylvania.
Let me be clear.
There is no world that exists...
In which it's anything other than razor thin in Pennsylvania for Republicans to win this.
If you could help us go through some of these numbers for people who aren't number nerds out there, Lane.
Six minus three is three, just to be clear.
You said they were down by five.
Whatever.
They hit a three.
Anyway, okay, so...
Don't try to fact check me!
If we're looking at the registration in Pennsylvania right now, Democrats have 3.95 million people registered.
That's actually a decrease of 181,000 from the same time in 2020.
That's good for us.
That's good.
We're seeing a decrease.
And Republicans have slightly less at 3.6 million registered voters, but that is a positive trend of 156,000 more at the same point in 2020.
So that's good, but the raw number is still favoring Democrats.
Right.
Because what was the voter turnout in 2020?
So this is another key point because Republicans actually outperformed in the turnout in 2020 as well by about 7%.
I think 84% of Republican registered voters turned out to only 77% of registered Democrat voters.
Right.
Right.
And that's a key fact because it does bring us to another, again, exclusive piece of analysis here from the Mug Club team.
All right, we've got nerdy.
So put this next point as simply as possible, Lane, for the folks out there going, give me the number here.
Right, so we saw that we've closed the gap, but we still have a smaller, raw number of registered voters.
So if all things remain the same, and the same percentage of registered voters for both parties turn out in 2024 as compared to 2020, Republicans will win.
But only by 58,000 votes or less than 1%.
Which, if we know how Democrats operate and they see the number 58,000, well, they have a bunch of voters that they're leaving on the table.
And I think there's plenty of methods that they might use to get them on the table.
Exactly.
And that's the concern that some people have with early voting, is it gives you just sort of, okay, this is what you need to close that gap.
I'm hoping that we see a higher, again, voter turnout, because in some states it's been outpacing even registrations.
So here's kind of some analysis that we've done, obviously, that paints a very clear picture of do not take anything for granted in Pennsylvania at all.
But here's the positive news.
I think baked into that, I hope there is a larger percentage of those new registered voters that are going to turn out for Republicans based on the work that Scott Pressler has done.
Right?
So I'm hoping what we'll see is that if, let's say, he got 100,000 people signed up.
The numbers are different than that.
But let's say he got 100,000 people signed up to register to vote.
I'm hoping we see a significantly higher than 84% number of those people actually going to vote.
Yeah.
Right?
Because they're excited about it.
They're getting registered.
They're engaged.
They're going to go vote on Election Day.
So I hope we'll see increased turnout.
But for him, he knows the work is not done just because you're able to vote.
The work is done once you do vote.
Yes.
And once you confirm your vote.
Yeah.
Once you confirm, it's like, who voted here?
My name's not Joe Lewis.
That must be an error.
So that's the thing people need to look out for, though.
77% Democrat turnout, I believe, is what we said in 2020.
That's a little low.
They can increase that number.
They could overperform that in Pennsylvania, certainly, especially when you have Josh Shapiro.
Again, it could also be tough because it's the highest...
I don't want to get too far off and speculate, but the highest, I believe, percentage of the Jewish vote in the Midwest, of any of the Midwestern states, I believe Pennsylvania.
Very high.
And, you know, they probably feel like they've been snubbed a little bit.
Hopefully they stay home.
Yes.
If they're going to vote Dem, stay home.
Well, hopefully they vote Republican.
Yeah, that's what I would go with.
There's one candidate who didn't say that.
That sounded kind of anti-Semitic.
Yeah, Jews are committing jail.
I'm going to vote for Democrats.
I want them to stay home, no matter who they are, Lane.
What do you think this is?
What, you're going to scare them with the angel of death?
Painting lamb's blood over their doorway?
For such a time as this, Stephen.
The ends justify the means.
So, and again, we're going to give you all these data points.
The references are available.
Click the link in the description, ladderwithcredit.com.
We're going to be continuing this as we go.
Let me give you this conclusion, what it is that we are seeing.
Okay.
That guy on CNN, full of crap.
Donald Trump's base is pretty damn similar, solid, if not slightly better when you're talking about non-college voters at this point, if you include vocational schools.
That's good news.
You're looking at the polling right now.
Better than 2020.
Okay.
Overall, better than 2020.
All swing states.
Better than 2020.
Okay.
Then you look at the early voting.
Better in Nevada than last election.
Okay.
Better in Arizona than last election.
Good.
Better in Georgia than last election.
Good.
Did I say Nevada?
I said Arizona?
North Carolina.
North Carolina.
Better in Georgia, right?
All those are better.
And by the way, contextually, better in Pennsylvania.
However, in Pennsylvania, that may not be enough.
And it certainly won't be enough if you think that this is a walk-off.
So all good news.
I would just say all good news across the board.
It's all good news.
And the problem or the wrinkle that we are facing is one over which you can have a direct impact.
And I'm not just saying vote.
I'm talking about any of you have a platform.
If it's social media, if you have a YouTube channel, if you have a podcast, if you have friends, if you have a social group, if you want to go out and volunteer to be a poll watcher, you want to go...
It's not too late.
To do something about those 58,000 votes, right?
If that's what we're talking about.
And again, this is somewhat hypothetical, but it still is going to be very close.
But you can have an impact on that right now with the knowledge that you have.
Everything is looking better than before.
Contextually, that's great everywhere, except contextually in Pennsylvania, you still do have some work to do.
It's not the home stretch.
It is a sprint.
Yeah, absolutely.
Do not let up at all.
Get people to go vote, too.
If you've got friends that you know that are registered to vote, make sure, like, check in with each other.
Yes.
Buddy system.
Sometimes people just are very, very busy in their life.
I get it.
You can be like, oh, they shouldn't be.
They are, right?
Yeah.
Got a lot on their plate.
Be like, hey, I'm going to vote today at lunch.
Do you want to go with me?
Makes it really simple.
Do your part in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, places like that.
We can win this election and never have to talk about Kamala Harris again.
And this isn't to say, like you said, that people like Scott Pressler aren't doing a great job.
This is only possible because of the work that people like him have done.
We are just trying to help build upon what he's done using our platform and what we do.
Yes, exactly.
And saying that, look, it doesn't pay to be unrealistic at this point.
You have to look at those numbers.
It's going to be close in Pennsylvania.
It is going to be close.
Still, there's a lot you can do, and the numbers look good at this point in time.
And by the way, you can expect Not only this, but a whole lot more on election night.
I mean, I don't even know if we're going to have space in this office because we are going to have the live electoral integrity map.
Again, based on the data and the analysis that we exclusively have available here where you will actually be able to see states, see progress, see disputes.
If the media calls it with just getting an update, Fox News called Arizona with actually it looks 0.0002%.
I don't know how they did it.
It was just the only vote was a leg.
Shit, they just fired Hannity.
what happened Why is Jesse Waters out there on 46 with a skin cup?
So we are going to be able to call states.
We are going to have cross streams.
We are going to have boots on the ground, investigative journalists.
So along with the data, the ability to get some people there so that nothing happens without us being able to shine a light on it.
None of it happens without you.
It's been a huge undertaking.
Consider joining Mug Club.
It's $89 a year.
You get this.
You get the Friday show.
You get Nick the Pell.
You get everything else that comes with Mug Club.
And it's the only way this happens.
No funding from a foreign caliphate.
Or go mugless for $9 a month between now and election.
That helps too.
I know that you have $9 a month.
We do not have a Patreon.
Though Gerald does have an OnlyFans.
And the issue here is that the media...
Don't worry.
It's like it's a PG OnlyFans.
It's really weird.
It's just him watching Disney movies.
The media is...
Lying again.
We can make that claim, but everyone does from time to time.
Even Press Secretary Nick DiPaolo knows that.
Are you saying that the President of the United States has never lied to the public before?
Never lied in a follow-up?
Are you saying that the President of the United States has never lied to the public before?
What the f***?
Translator?
▲
Export Selection