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March 24, 2023 - Radio Renaissance - Jared Taylor
17:36
A Harsh New Light on Race and Murder
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Hello, I'm Jared Taylor with American Renaissance.
The censors hate my videos.
They're especially going to hate this one.
But if you like it, I hope you'll send the link to a lot of people.
My organization, American Renaissance, has been studying race and crime ever since 1990.
We published our first report called The Color of Crime in 1999, and here are the two latest updates from 2005 and 2016.
I'm therefore very happy to find that an amateur researcher working in his spare time has looked even deeper than we ever did into the racial aspects of the most serious crime of all, murder.
This person, whose name I don't even know, tweets under the name of Data Hazard.
He also has a substack.
at datahazard.substack.com that, as you can see, is about advocacy and analyses on underreported and unpopular topics.
I have not checked all his data.
That would take weeks.
But what I have checked is accurate, and his conclusions and assumptions are reasonable.
I'll call him Data Hazard.
This is one of his most powerful tables.
These are the rates at which blacks, whites, and Hispanics of both sexes committed murder in 2021.
Please look at the highlighted column, White Male, Murderers per 100,000.
This is the rate at which white men committed murder at various ages.
The figure just below the yellow highlight is 5.2 per 100,000, the rate at which everyone between the ages of 15 and 64 committed murder.
Below that are murder rates for various age groups.
As you can see, for white males age 5 through 14, the number is 0.2 per 100,000, which means that only 1 in 500,000 white boys that age killed anyone in 2021.
The murder rate jumped to its highest for the 15 to 24 age group and then tailed off as the man got older.
Now, look at the column for black male, murderers per 100,000.
As you can see, the rates for every age group are much higher than for white males.
Look at the number for black males of all ages in the row next to the bottom.
That figure is 64.4.
It's 18.4 times higher than the equivalent figure of 3.5 for white males.
In 2021, any given black man was 18.4 times more likely than any given white man to commit murder.
You almost never get such a huge difference when you compare human groups of the same sex living in the same country.
Now look at the Hispanic males.
As you can see, their murder rates were consistently higher than white murder rates, 3.4 times higher for males of all ages, but a lot lower than for blacks.
These data are consistent with findings I have reported elsewhere.
But data hazard has gone further.
Look at the murder rates for black females.
In 2021, no black girl under 14 killed anyone, but older women made up for it.
And when you look at the figure down below, for all ages, black women were 65% more likely than white men to commit murder.
This is another remarkable finding.
Women of all races are less violent than men of the same race, but I've never seen a breakdown of the data to show that in any year, black women were more likely than white men to kill someone.
The data on Hispanic and white women are what you would expect.
Hispanic murder rates are in between white and black rates, and white women were the least likely group to kill anyone.
If data hazard had included Asians, they would be the least homicidal race of all.
But what's the meaning of the last row of data, projected lifetime?
This is the rate per 100,000 for a person of each group to commit murder during his entire lifetime.
Remember, everything else you see on this table is a snapshot for a single year, 2021.
Look at the black male murder rate of 207.4 per 100,000 for people in the age group 15 to 24. A black man is going to stay in that very murder-prone age group for 10 years.
Every black man is going to spend every year of his life as a member of the race and sex that is the most likely, if any, in America to commit murder.
What data hazard therefore calculates as projected lifetime is the rate per 100,000 for a black male, or someone of any of the other groups, to kill someone over the course of his entire life.
That's if the murder rates for 2021 continue into the future.
For blacks, that figure at the bottom of the table comes out to 4,508 per 100,000 and expressed as a percentage, that's 4.5%.
If the black male murder rates for all age groups remain at the 2021 rate, we can expect that 4.5% of black men, about 1 in 22, would eventually For white men,
in the lower left, it would be 0.27%, or about 1 17th the black rate.
For white women, the number is 0.059%.
Actually, these are theoretical maximums.
They assume each murderer kills just one person, and we know that some murderers kill more than once.
Data Hazard concludes that if you make the most extreme assumptions about murderers who kill more than one person, you could bring the lifetime likelihood that a black man will commit murder down to no less than 3.3%.
But for various reasons, he explains at his substack, he thinks the correct number would be around 4%, or that at 2021 rates, 1 in every 25 black men will kill at some point during his life.
For white men, the number would be about 1 in 425.
1 in 25 versus 1 in 425.
That's a huge difference.
When do you think you'll see a table like this on the evening news, or in the New York Times, or at a congressional hearing?
Here's another one of Data Hazard's remarkable graphs.
This shows what percentage of black males, that's the orange line, and white males, the blue line, will statistically commit murder by a particular age if the 2021 rates remain unchanged.
Age is on the horizontal axis, starting at 14. Just about nobody has killed anyone by that age.
But as you can see, by age 15, a quarter of a percent of black boys have killed someone.
That's one in 400.
By age 25, on the orange line, just over 2%, or one in 50, have killed someone.
For both races, the percentage climbs sharply up to about age 35 and begins to level off.
If Hispanics were on this graph, they would be somewhere between blacks and whites.
Asians would be way down at the bottom.
Murder rates in 2021, and they were even higher in 2022, may seem high now, but there have been much worse times.
In this graph, Data Hazard uses the blue line to show yearly changes in the black male victimization rates.
Those are the rates per 100,000 at which black men were murdered.
Almost always by other black men.
The orange line is accumulated deaths by murder of black men with a six-year projection after 2021.
The point is, black rates of death by murder have been a lot higher in the past, 60% higher in 1972 and 33% higher in 1991 compared to 2021.
Here are more interesting historical data.
Data Hazard has found that between 1968 and 2021, 1,084,990 Americans were murdered, including blacks and whites.
Blacks killed 56% of them, even though during that time there have been approximately five times as many whites as blacks.
Here, the left-hand axis is the number of murder victims of blacks for every year, just under 9,000 in 1968, rising to 16,000 in 2021.
Please look at the colors of the vertical bars.
The blue section at the bottom is the number of white men killed by black men that year, and the orange section is white women killed by black men that year.
Over on the left, In 1968, black men killed 1,200 white men and 300 white women.
In 2021, over on the right, you can see that black men killed nearly 2,000 white men and about 400 white women.
The units are still on the left axis.
These are estimates for some years, but Data Hazard is a careful guy and makes conservative estimates.
The big yellow section in the middle is black men killed by black men.
There are a lot.
And the blue section at the top is black women killed by black men.
Obviously, black men kill more black people than they kill white people.
The white line is the accumulated death toll of victims of black men from 1968 to 2021, which is to say 606,743, with the units on the right axis.
The green line is the total number of women killed by black men during that period, or 115,169.
Data hazard does not shy away from the touchy issue of interracial murder.
In the left-hand part of the graph are estimates of the numbers of whites killed by blacks, from 1968 at the bottom to 2021 at the top.
Orange is white men they killed, and blue is white women they killed.
Data Hazard estimates a total of 145,695 white people, including 35,000 women killed by blacks in the last 53 years.
Just for comparison, that's more than the 117,000 American soldiers killed in the First World War.
Over on the right are estimates of white-on-black murders.
Again, with men in orange and women in blue, for a total of 47,876 blacks killed by whites.
Given that there are about five times as many whites as blacks in the country, a black was about 17 times more likely to kill a white than the other way around.
But it's worse than that, because, as Data Hazard points out, for most historical data, the government stupidly lumps Hispanics in with whites.
So that in these graphs, whites includes whites and Hispanics.
As we saw earlier, when you can separate Hispanics from whites, they are three to four times more likely than whites to commit murder, and they are more likely to live close to blacks and to kill blacks.
My guess is that the odds of a black killing a non-Hispanic white rather than the other way around are well over 20 times greater.
This is the total of the excess of black-on-white killings over white-on-black killings from 1968 to 2020.
In other words, white-on-black murders are subtracted from the much larger number of black-on-white murders.
Again, excess female deaths are in blue, excess male deaths are in orange.
The green line is the cumulative total.
Data Hazard finds that during that period blacks killed nearly 98,000 more whites, including Hispanics, than whites, including Hispanics, killed blacks.
There are plenty more interesting graphs from Data Hazard.
Here's one of how black and white men die violent deaths.
Blacks on the left, whites on the right.
The colors mean the same things for both races.
Blue on the left is suicide.
Orange is homicide, the tiny gray silver is killings by police, and yellow means cause unknown.
The data go from 1968 only up to 2016, which is too bad.
But in that most recent year, you can see that about 75% of black men who die violently are murdered, whereas 75% of whites who die violently kill themselves.
Again, the number killed by the police is tiny and is about the same percentage for both blacks and whites.
The police are not and never have been on the prowl looking for black people to kill.
Do you remember this graph that shows changes in the rate at which black men were murdered year to year?
Please note the peak in 1991 and then the decline to 2014.
Essentially, all crime followed this pattern, rising to the early 1990s and then dropping.
Here is a graph from a different source of total crime rates, the dark blue line, plotted against incarceration rates.
See the peak for the total crime rate in the early 1990s that then declines towards the 2010s?
Do you think rising incarceration rates, the rising gold line, had anything to do with it?
Of course it did.
If this graph continued into the present, you would see that incarceration rates have been falling while crime rates rise.
We have DAs who don't prosecute, the elimination of bail, hatred for and defunding of police, and don't forget the big COVID convict release.
Because prisoners might infect each other.
Lefties tie themselves into knots, trying to convince you prison is not the solution.
But a guy who is locked up can't kill you or rob you, can he?
We occasionally get hints of this, at least in foreign newspapers.
Keep violent people in jail.
Washington, D.C. police chief says average homicide suspect has 11 prior arrests before committing a murder.
As crime rates surge.
As the chief says, when they're in jail, they can't be in the communities shooting people.
What an idea!
But as you know, we are governed by morons who are determined to disbelieve even a black police chief.
And so, even though black lives matter, might as well be the new state religion, black people will go on killing each other.
And us.
So long as people with 11 prior arrests are walking around rather than living in the big house.
We are not governed exclusively by morons.
We are also governed by ignoramuses.
Our rulers don't know a tenth of what I have just told you, and I haven't covered a tenth of what data hazard can tell you.
But I'll add just one more thing.
Here is how the racial mix of the United States is changing.
Whites, the top line, were almost 70% of the population in 1990, and we were just under 60% in 2021.
If the country in 2021 had been 100% white, and the white murder rate were the same as it was in 2021, the number of murders would have dropped from about 26,000 to about 7,000, a decrease of 73%.
The approximately 40% of the population that is black and Hispanics means we have nearly four times as many murders as an all-white country would have had.
Just something to think about.
Of course, our rulers are not thinking about that.
And nothing will change until Americans realize that we wouldn't have anything like the crime problem we have if we didn't have a race problem.
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