Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano - Prof. John Mearsheimer : The Future of Great Power Politics
Aired: 2026-05-12
Duration: 30:46


=== Undeclared Wars and Military Weakness (15:04) ===

[00:00:03]  Undeclared wars are commonplace.
[00:00:06]  Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression, with no complaints from the American people.
[00:00:14]  Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government.
[00:00:19]  To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected.
[00:00:27]  What if sometimes to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government?
[00:00:32]  What if Jefferson was right?
[00:00:34]  What if that government is best which governs least?
[00:00:38]  What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong?
[00:00:42]  What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave?
[00:00:48]  What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now?
[00:01:02]  Hi, everyone.
[00:01:03]  Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
[00:01:06]  Today is Tuesday, May 12, 2026.
[00:01:10]  Professor John Mearshammer will be with us in just a moment on the future of superpower politics.
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[00:02:22]  Professor Mearsheimer, good day to you and welcome here, my friend.
[00:02:26]  Before we get to the future of great power politics, which seems to be changing as we are watching it, were you surprised to learn that Robert?
[00:02:38]  Kagan, the neocon grandee, the Dick Cheney advisor, the husband of your debate adversary, about which more later in the show, wrote in the Atlantic that the United States and Israel have lost their war with Iran.
[00:03:00]  Both yes and no.
[00:03:03]  Yes, I was surprised in the fact that he is one of the leading neoconservative thinkers on the planet.
[00:03:11]  And Who would have ever thought that he would issue such a stark statement about the fact that we have lost the war in Iran and there is simply no hope, and that this is probably the greatest defeat that the United States has ever suffered in its history?
[00:03:29]  You just didn't expect that from somebody like Bob Kagan.
[00:03:34]  But it's not surprising in the sense that anybody with a triple digit IQ viewing what's going on in the world today.
[00:03:44]  I think can't help but understand that we're in deep trouble and that we have no winning formula in Iran.
[00:03:52]  And furthermore, from Kagan's point of view as a neoconservative, if you go back to the early 2000s when they began to really have great influence, especially in the wake of 9-11, and you look at how their enterprise has played itself out, not just in Iran, but in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and so forth and so on, it's been failure at almost every point.
[00:04:18]  And very importantly, all of these neoconservatives, and especially someone like Kagan, is deeply committed to Israel and cares greatly about the welfare of Israel.
[00:04:28]  And I don't see how anybody who is as smart as Kagan looking at Israel today doesn't understand that this is a country that is in real trouble and its trajectory is downhill over time.
[00:04:43]  So, for all those reasons, I'm not surprised.
[00:04:46]  But again, to see him.
[00:04:49]  Say this in the pages of the Atlantic Monthly is really quite stunning.
[00:04:54]  How and why did the U.S. and Israel fail?
[00:04:59]  How did they miscalculate so badly?
[00:05:03]  Oh, they thought that we could use air power alone to topple the regime in Tehran and put in place a regime that would dance to our tune.
[00:05:19]  In other words, we, the Israelis and the Americans, had four basic goals here.
[00:05:25]  One was regime change, two was to put an end to the nuclear enrichment program.
[00:05:30]  Three was to get Iran to stop supporting Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas.
[00:05:37]  And then finally, to put an end to their long range missile program.
[00:05:40]  Those were the four goals.
[00:05:42]  And the key goal, as I've emphasized before, was regime change, because once you get regime change, you can take care of the other three goals.
[00:05:50]  And the administration, pushed by the Israelis, believed that we could knock off the regime and we could satisfy all of those goals very quickly.
[00:06:03]  And the problem here is that the historical record is perfectly clear that there is no case of using air power alone to topple a regime.
[00:06:14]  And furthermore, even if we had toppled the regime, there was no guarantee whatsoever that we'd get a new regime that would dance to our tune.
[00:06:22]  So this was really a cockamamie strategy to begin with.
[00:06:26]  And as the New York Times reported in that famous article they wrote describing the decision making process, virtually all of President Trump's advisors told him that this was a cockamamie idea.
[00:06:38]  And it was the Israelis, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the head of Assad, David Barnea, who convinced the president that he had a theory of victory that was going to pan out.
[00:06:51]  And that, of course, proved not to be the case.
[00:06:54]  And then once it didn't work, we were in the soup, the deep soup, right?
[00:06:58]  Which is where we are now.
[00:06:59]  Which is where we are now.
[00:07:01]  Did the war have the effect?
[00:07:04]  Of pushing Russia, Iran, and China closer together.
[00:07:09]  Our friend Ambassador Freeman refers to it as an entente.
[00:07:14]  It's not a treaty, but it's a publicly announced embrace of mutual interests.
[00:07:21]  Yeah, I think Chaz is right.
[00:07:23]  It is an entente, and the war did have that effect.
[00:07:26]  I mean, both the Russians and the Chinese have a deep seated interest in making sure that Iran does not lose.
[00:07:34]  And by the way, I would add the Turks to that list as well.
[00:07:37]  The Turks, the Russians, and the Chinese all have a vested interest in making sure that Iran hangs on.
[00:07:45]  And I think from Russia's point of view, and even China's point of view, it's not such a bad thing if the United States remains bogged down in the war against Iran.
[00:07:56]  Because if we do, then it makes it very difficult for us to think about containing China in East Asia.
[00:08:03]  In fact, it weakens their position in East Asia.
[00:08:06]  And furthermore, it weakens our position in the Ukraine war.
[00:08:11]  It makes it more difficult for us to support the Ukrainians.
[00:08:14]  And furthermore, we're actually helping the Russians by taking sanctions off some of their oil that they sell in global markets.
[00:08:22]  So I think the Russians and the Chinese have a vested interest in doing what they can to help Iran win this war.
[00:08:32]  So, what are President Xi and President Trump going to talk about?
[00:08:36]  What cards?
[00:08:38]  Does Donald Trump have to play?
[00:08:42]  I don't think he has many cards to play.
[00:08:45]  I've not read anything where anybody can tell a story that he has cards to play.
[00:08:51]  It seems to me that what he's going to want from China is some help in pressuring Iran to come to an agreement that ends the war on terms that are relatively favorable to the United States.
[00:09:08]  That's simply not going to happen.
[00:09:10]  And I think what Xi is going to want is that Xi is going to want President Trump to say that he's going to slow down or cut back or not continue.
[00:09:23]  To fund Taiwan and do everything possible to separate the link between the United States and Taiwan.
[00:09:33]  But I don't think that Xi will be successful there either, as desperate as President Trump will be.
[00:09:40]  So I don't think that much will come out of this meeting.
[00:09:45]  When these meetings occur, Nixon goes to China, so to speak, Trump goes to China in reality here.
[00:09:55]  Isn't it true that if there are agreements to come out of these meetings, they are agreed to and hammered out in advance?
[00:10:04]  That the heads of state don't negotiate the terms of the agreements, they merely publicly ratify what their emissaries have already negotiated.
[00:10:13]  And if that's true, what have these two countries agreed on, or don't we know?
[00:10:19]  Of course, that's traditionally how it works.
[00:10:22]  And it's certainly the way it works when you're dealing with.
[00:10:25]  Complicated issues.
[00:10:26]  I remember during the Cold War when we would negotiate arms control treaties with the Soviet Union, you know, the people who negotiated those treaties before they were signed by the respective presidents went to enormous lengths to dot every I and cross every T.
[00:10:46]  And the way it worked back then was the way you described it.
[00:10:49]  But that's not the way President Trump operates.
[00:10:52]  He's a fly by the seat of your pants operator.
[00:10:55]  He doesn't.
[00:10:56]  Believe that experts matter.
[00:10:58]  He's not interested in preparing for serious negotiations.
[00:11:03]  The end result is quite clear.
[00:11:05]  You know how well the Ukrainian, the negotiations to end the Ukraine war have worked out, right?
[00:11:12]  Right.
[00:11:12]  Completely.
[00:11:14]  How about the negotiations to end the genocide in Palestine?
[00:11:19]  That's failed.
[00:11:22]  We could go on and on.
[00:11:24]  And if you sort of look at how he conducts business vis a vis the Iranians, This is not a serious negotiating strategy.
[00:11:33]  And finally, I would point out that the people he employs to do his negotiating, the people who should be dotting the I, dotting the I's and crossing the T's, are total amateurs, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
[00:11:49]  We just don't have the A team in there.
[00:11:52]  And as a result, we get no agreements.
[00:11:58]  Can the superpowers stay out of each other's way?
[00:12:05]  Well, we have a deep seated interest, we meaning the United States, in staying out of China's way as much as possible.
[00:12:12]  The United States is bogged down in this terrible war in Iran and it can't get itself out.
[00:12:19]  And the last thing we need is a crisis in East Asia.
[00:12:24]  So you can rest assured that when President Trump arrives in China, he's going to go to great lengths to smooth.
[00:12:34]  Any ruffled feathers that he finds in China because he does not want a crisis in China.
[00:12:41]  And of course, the Chinese have a series of problems of their own, especially in terms of their domestic economy.
[00:12:48]  And furthermore, their military is not in a position where it can take advantage of America's weakness in East Asia these days.
[00:12:56]  So the Chinese, like the Americans, I think will go to great lengths to make sure that the existing modus vivendi in East Asia stays in place and that there's no good security competition or no meaningful security competition between China and the United States in the months ahead.
[00:13:19]  We just can't afford that.
[00:13:21]  Hasn't President Xi radically upgraded the Chinese military?
[00:13:29]  There's no question that he has taken major steps to upgrade the Chinese military and its capability vis a vis the United States has improved significantly over the past few years.
[00:13:44]  And we, for a while, were interested in matching the Chinese and pursuing a containment policy in East Asia.
[00:13:52]  This is what the pivot to Asia was all about.
[00:13:54]  But what's happened now is that we're pivoting away from Asia.
[00:13:58]  What's happening is that we're pulling, you know, Patriots and other systems out of East Asia.
[00:14:05]  And we're also moving ground forces.
[00:14:08]  We're moving that Marine, we moved that Marine Expeditionary Unit, the 31st MEU, out of Japan.
[00:14:15]  It's now in the Middle East.
[00:14:17]  So, if anything, we've been pivoting away from Asia.
[00:14:19]  And again, this is why the United States does not want the security competition between the United States and China to heat up at all.
[00:14:28]  Scott Ritter has argued on this show as recently as yesterday that the United States has depleted its weaponry almost down to zero.
[00:14:40]  And if the United States military were needed, it doesn't appear likely, but needed to defend Taiwan, we couldn't do so effectively because we have wasted so much giving it to Israel and wasted so much on this fruitless war in Iran.
[00:14:58]  And it takes us a long time to build these things.
[00:15:01]  We are not efficient at building these things the way the Russians and the Chinese are.

=== Economic Consequences of Conflict (11:20) ===

[00:15:08]  I think you forgot to add Ukraine as well.
[00:15:11]  Yes, yes, I did forget to add Ukraine.
[00:15:13]  And thank you for adding that.
[00:15:15]  So Ritter's comments are profound.
[00:15:18]  Well, I think that we're not down to zero.
[00:15:21]  I think we have badly damaged our stock of boutique weapons that we would need.
[00:15:30]  If we were in a conflict with China or any other country around the world.
[00:15:34]  And I think one of the reasons that we stopped the fighting, we stopped the bombing against Iran, and one of the reasons that President Trump is not interested in starting it up again is because we run the great danger of actually going to a point where we have hardly anything left.
[00:15:53]  Our inventories are depleted.
[00:15:55]  That would be the word I would use.
[00:15:57]  They're badly depleted.
[00:15:58]  There's no question about that.
[00:16:00]  And by the way, you want to remember that General Kane told President Trump.
[00:16:04]  Before the war started against Iran, that this was one of the great dangers that we faced, that we did not have a large stock of weaponry that we could draw on to fight the war against Iran without endangering our situation in East Asia.
[00:16:19]  Because Kane surely understood that before the war started on February 28th, we had already at that point given large numbers of weapons to the Israelis and to the Ukrainians.
[00:16:32]  And we were in trouble before February 28th.
[00:16:35]  And since February 28th, we've got ourselves even.
[00:16:38]  Into deeper trouble.
[00:16:40]  And then again, if you hypothesize a situation where we foolishly start this war up again, I'm talking here about the bombing campaign against Iran, we will probably have hardly anything left at the end of it.
[00:16:54]  And we won't win in the process.
[00:16:56]  Wow.
[00:16:57]  Do you agree with the thesis that power and wealth on a global scale are moving east?
[00:17:07]  There's no question that starting.
[00:17:10]  From the early 1990s up until the present, China's relative wealth, its wealth relative to the United States, has been increasing.
[00:17:23]  And we helped China to grow on purpose.
[00:17:27]  This was the famous policy of engagement.
[00:17:30]  It was designed to make China prosperous, to make it wealthy.
[00:17:34]  And it has been very successful.
[00:17:37]  And it continues.
[00:17:39]  So there's no question that over time, the relative balance of economic.
[00:17:44]  Power has shifted against the United States.
[00:17:47]  And as we all know, military power is a function of two building blocks, two factors.
[00:17:55]  One is wealth, which we just talked about, and the other is population size.
[00:17:59]  And you're talking about a country here that has four times the population of the United States and is on the road to becoming as wealthy as the United States, if not more wealthy.
[00:18:12]  This means that the United States is up against a competitor.
[00:18:17]  A peer competitor like it's never seen before.
[00:18:20]  And to take this just one step further, it has, at the same time, it's grown economically, built up its military power so that the military balance is shifting against the United States.
[00:18:35]  There's just no way you can avoid that when China's economy grows like that.
[00:18:41]  And in a situation like that, where the United States is facing a peer competitor like it's never seen before, This country, China, has the raw capability to dwarf the size of Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, or Imperial Japan.
[00:18:59]  The last thing you want to do in that circumstance is get involved in a lengthy war in the Middle East against Iran that you can't win.
[00:19:07]  And that, of course, is what we've done.
[00:19:09]  And at the same time, we've gotten ourselves into a giant mess in Ukraine to the point where not only have we expended huge numbers of weapons.
[00:19:20]  In the fight against Russia in Ukraine, but we've pushed the Russians into the arms of the Chinese.
[00:19:27]  All of this just goes to show you what a bankrupt foreign policy the United States has had for a long time.
[00:19:34]  All of this is bringing about the end of the American empire.
[00:19:38]  I mean, look at the banks.
[00:19:40]  20, 25 years ago, the best banks in the world were U.S., now they're in China.
[00:19:45]  By best, I mean largest deposits.
[00:19:51]  Most productive loans, most increase in wealth.
[00:19:57]  There's no question about it.
[00:19:58]  I would also point to the competition and sophisticated technologies.
[00:20:03]  That scares me more than the situation you described with regard to the banks.
[00:20:09]  The Chinese have the capability to develop highly sophisticated technologies and compete with us.
[00:20:19]  And in terms of developing things like AI and quantum computing, Who's to say that the Chinese won't end up beating us?
[00:20:26]  They may very well do that.
[00:20:29]  You want to remember that during the Cold War, when we were up against the Soviet Union, the principal reason I believed that we defeated the Soviet Union was that the Soviet Union was not capable of competing with us economically, and it was not capable of developing sophisticated technologies.
[00:20:47]  When the information revolution began to get traction in the early 1980s, the Soviet leadership understood that they were light years behind us and that we would just open the gap moving forward.
[00:21:01]  And this is one of the reasons that the Soviet Union basically gave up on the arms race.
[00:21:05]  They couldn't arms race with us.
[00:21:07]  And they couldn't arms race with us because they couldn't compete in terms of developing sophisticated technologies.
[00:21:14]  Well, we're talking about competing with a country that not only has the ability to compete with us, but may very well beat us.
[00:21:21]  And on top of that, as I said before, has four times as many people as us.
[00:21:26]  And if you have four times as many people as the United States has, and you have, A technology base that's as sophisticated, if not more sophisticated, the amount of military power that you, China, can develop relative to the United States is very great.
[00:21:42]  All of this is to say we're in deep trouble.
[00:21:44]  But don't worry, we decided to start a war in the Middle East against Iran.
[00:21:50]  We will end up using most of those precious munitions that we need to contain China.
[00:21:56]  Wow.
[00:21:58]  What kind of trouble?
[00:21:59]  I'm jumping back to the Middle East, Professor Mearsheimer.
[00:22:03]  What kind of trouble is Israel in as a country?
[00:22:08]  Oh, I think Israel is in deep trouble.
[00:22:11]  I mean, first of all, it's very hard to tell what effect this war has had on Israel because the Israelis have done a brilliant job of not letting any information get out about the damage that's been done to the country.
[00:22:26]  Now, we know from various reports in places like the New York Times and the Washington Post that the amount of damage the Iranians have done. to American military bases in the region is much greater than we thought at first.
[00:22:43]  It's quite clear that those Iranian missiles are very powerful and very accurate, and they have done an enormous amount of damage to the American basing structure.
[00:22:54]  Well, if that's true, shouldn't it be the case that those same missiles and those drones that have been used against our bases are doing similar damage in Israel?
[00:23:07]  You certainly would think so.
[00:23:08]  You would certainly think that a lot of damage has been done inside of Israel.
[00:23:15]  That's point number one.
[00:23:17]  Point number two is there have to be huge economic consequences associated with fighting a war like this.
[00:23:24]  Huge numbers of reservists have been called up and have served multiple tours.
[00:23:30]  And there are all sorts of articles that point out that this has a damaging effect on the economy.
[00:23:36]  Furthermore, if you look at Israel's performance, they have not defeated Hezbollah.
[00:23:41]  Bala is alive and well and firing missiles into northern Israel and actually clobbering the IDF on the battlefields of southern Lebanon.
[00:23:51]  Hamas has not been defeated.
[00:23:55]  And the Israelis are also deeply engaged in military operations in southern Syria and they're launching pogroms on the West Bank.
[00:24:05]  This is a state that does nothing but fight wars year after year.
[00:24:11]  And one would think that.
[00:24:13]  This is going to have a significant effect not only on the economy, but also just on the basic Weltanschauung of the country, just the way they think about life.
[00:24:23]  And I see all sorts of evidence that lots of Israelis are leaving the country, that they're dissatisfied with life in Israel because Israel lives in a constant state of war.
[00:24:36]  And the situation shows no signs of changing.
[00:24:40]  And I think it does not bode well for Israel's future.
[00:24:43]  When President Putin called Prime Minister Netanyahu 10 days ago, what do you think he said to him?
[00:24:53]  President Putin probably told Prime Minister Netanyahu that the war in Iran was a bad idea and that if he were smart, he would try to put an end to that war.
[00:25:07]  That would be my guess.
[00:25:08]  I would imagine that President Putin has said the same thing to President Trump.
[00:25:13]  I would imagine that President Putin has told both Netanyahu and Trump that he would be willing to try to help settle the conflict if possible, if they were willing to allow that.
[00:25:26]  My belief is that in Israel's case, that fell on deaf ears.
[00:25:30]  The Israelis are deeply committed to continuing the war.
[00:25:33]  And I'd bet a lot of money that they're pressuring President Trump to go back to the bombing campaign as soon as possible.
[00:25:41]  Wow.
[00:25:42]  And if he doesn't, the Israelis cannot expect to take on Iran alone, can they?
[00:25:51]  It's hard for me to imagine the Israelis doing that by themselves.
[00:25:54]  I would think that Trump would go to great lengths to prevent that from happening.
[00:25:58]  The fact is that Trump is desperately searching for a way to end this war.
[00:26:03]  And he surely understands that turning the Israelis loose on Iran is not going to end the war.
[00:26:11]  And if anything, will just make a bad situation worse.
[00:26:14]  So my guess would be that Trump will go to great lengths to prevent Israel from unilaterally starting the war up again or starting the air campaign up again.
[00:26:27]  But you know, who knows with Trump?

=== Trump's Search for Peace (04:17) ===

[00:26:28]  The more you watch Trump, the more you see that.
[00:26:33]  He's basically undergoing the same process that LBJ went through during the Vietnam War.
[00:26:39]  I remember those days very well.
[00:26:41]  You know, Johnson, when we first got into the war in 1965, had just won a stunning victory in the fall of 1964.
[00:26:51]  He was reelected president.
[00:26:54]  And then he was, of course, inaugurated in January 1965.
[00:26:58]  And then two months later, he started the war.
[00:27:01]  He put ground forces into Ukraine, into Vietnam.
[00:27:06]  And he was in the driver's seat at that point in time.
[00:27:10]  He was a president who had won a sweeping victory.
[00:27:14]  And then from 65 to 68, the war went south on him.
[00:27:18]  And it had a truly stunning effect on him.
[00:27:24]  It wrecked his presidency and I think it destroyed his personal life.
[00:27:29]  And when you looked at him by the time he stepped out of the White House and compared him to what he looked like when he, you know, Had won a victory in November of '64.
[00:27:44]  The difference was stunning.
[00:27:45]  And as you watch President Trump and you see these instances of him launching tweet bombs in the middle of the night, you really sort of wonder if the same thing that happened to Johnson isn't happening to him.
[00:28:00]  If this war is not just getting to him and not just wrecking his presidency, but beginning to eat away at him personally.
[00:28:09]  Wow.
[00:28:11]  I often wonder why he's not asleep.
[00:28:13]  At three in the morning on the East Coast.
[00:28:17]  What are you doing with Steve Walt and Victoria Nuland and Mike Pompeo tomorrow?
[00:28:26]  No, it's not tomorrow.
[00:28:29]  It's next Thursday.
[00:28:30]  I beg your pardon.
[00:28:31]  I had the wrong date.
[00:28:33]  Yeah, it's next week.
[00:28:35]  It's a debate between me and Steve Walt on one side, Mike Pompeo and Victoria Nuland on the other side.
[00:28:44]  And the resolution on the table is be it resolved.
[00:28:47]  Don't go hunting monsters.
[00:28:49]  And this, of course, is a famous play.
[00:28:52]  This is a play on John Quincy Adams' famous words that the United States should not go around hunting monsters.
[00:29:00]  And we're talking about the United States acting as a crusader state and trying to spread liberal democracy all over the planet.
[00:29:08]  And Newland and Pompeo will make the case that the United States should go out and hunt monsters, while Steve Walton and I will argue the opposite.
[00:29:20]  I think it'll be a debate basically between what I would call two restrainers and two crusaders.
[00:29:26]  And it should be quite interesting.
[00:29:29]  Wow.
[00:29:30]  So May 20th is next Thursday.
[00:29:33]  And if people click on the link, they'll know how to watch this.
[00:29:39]  Yes, you can watch it if you click on the link.
[00:29:42]  And people.
[00:29:44]  Next Wednesday, Wednesday, May 20th.
[00:29:47]  Oh, is it Wednesday, May 20th?
[00:29:48]  My apologies.
[00:29:49]  Right.
[00:29:50]  Right, right.
[00:29:52]  Well, Professor Emir Schammer, hopefully, we'll see you before that debate.
[00:29:57]  If there is breaking news out of China that requires your analysis, Chris will find you and we'll look forward to seeing you again soon.
[00:30:06]  Definitely.
[00:30:06]  And I'll be there next Tuesday, regardless.
[00:30:09]  Okay.
[00:30:10]  You'll be here next Tuesday, regardless.
[00:30:12]  Yes, I'll be with you next Tuesday.
[00:30:15]  And when you said there, I thought, is he going to China?
[00:30:22]  We should be so fortunate.
[00:30:24]  That Donald Trump would listen to you, but uh, doesn't seem to be in the cards.
[00:30:29]  Thank you, Professor.
[00:30:30]  All the best to you.
[00:30:31]  All the best to you, Judge.
[00:30:32]  Thank you.
[00:30:33]  Coming up later today at 11 o'clock this morning on all of this, Colonel Douglas McGregor at two this afternoon, Matt Ho at three this afternoon, Colonel Karen Kortkowski, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.