April 21, 2026 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
25:17
Gilbert Doctorow : The Kremlin Prepares for War With Europe
Gilbert Doctorow analyzes the Kremlin's war preparations, noting that despite state media praise for Putin, Russian elites feel bored and troubled by their diminished sovereignty compared to defiant Iran. He highlights economic policies under Elvira Nabyulina favoring military production, a proposed European security group excluding the EU, and Alexander Lukashenko's independent stance while being courted by the Trump administration. Doctorow warns that US-Israeli attacks on Iran depleted Ukraine's Patriot missiles, forcing reliance on European drones Russia now targets, concluding that Iranian resilience suggests a consensus among Russian leadership and public to end the war soon. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Rejecting Initiating Force00:07:19
Undeclared wars are commonplace.
Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression, with no complaints from the American people.
Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government.
To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected.
What if sometimes, to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government?
What if Jefferson was right?
What if that government is best which governs least?
What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong?
What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave?
What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now?
Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Pardon me.
Today is Wednesday, April 22nd, 2026.
Our guest today is Gilbert Doctor.
Oh, Gilbert, always a pleasure, my dear friend.
Welcome here.
Welcome to the show.
Thank you for accommodating my schedule, as you always do.
I have a lot to talk to you about.
The theme is the Kremlin prepares for war against Europe.
But to build up to that, I want you to tell me about President Putin's standing.
With the Kremlin officials, with Russian elites, and with average Russians.
We'll start with the Kremlin.
How does his own Kremlin honestly feel about him from your ability to take their pulse?
Well, these things are always well hidden, and you have to do some guesswork, and you can be mistaken.
But I think that which way the wind is blowing is fairly clear.
And as regards all three of the categories, That you have mentioned, both the Kremlin insiders and those a bit on fringes, and then the general public, the wind is clear.
Putin is in trouble.
And I understand everyone's going to tell me about the 80%.
And I say it's not what counts.
What counts is what I see on television every day.
And the mood is clear.
Last night on Sobhavyov's program, the first 20 minutes of the program, the presenter gave.
A speech describing how the people love Putin and how Putin loves the people and how Putin looks after.
Now, this is on state owned or state influenced media.
Yes.
Solovyov is one of the leading deans of Russian journalists.
He's been the head of the Moscow Union of Journalists.
He is a fairly independent person, but he also is a member of the team.
And two weeks ago, he Did what people at the top found rather unpleasant and unacceptable.
He, in thinly veiled language, his whole panel was saying that the way the war is conducted is not right and that the war should be ended soon by more violent action and putting an end to the regime of Zelensky.
Well, a day after that, Solovyov backtracked a little, and last night it was a complete surrender.
He delivered a long speech explaining why the president-in-chief.
Commander is unusual in his solicitude for his soldiers and for his nation.
That was gratuitous, and it tells me that the president is in trouble because you don't need that if you're not in trouble.
Interesting.
But what does the public feel?
The public must be bored out of its mind.
Every program in television now, every news bullet, as well as these important talk shows, starts out with 15 to 20 minutes of Putin's speeches.
Now he's speechifying everywhere every day.
And most of what he says is of zero interest to the general public.
That doesn't make any difference.
You heard it on the 2 o'clock news, you heard it on the 6 o'clock news, and then you hear it again on either the Great Game or the Solovyovsky evening program, which comes on at like 12 o'clock at night, Moscow time.
Well, you get the message.
This is a cult of personality which is being enhanced and expanded and must be boring the Russian public to death.
Is the patience over the special military operation run out across the board?
Is that fair to say?
Russia, like the rest of the world, reacts to world events in general.
And as I have said for the last two weeks, the United States Israeli attack on Iran shook up the thinking classes of Russia and made them think again about how their war is being managed by the top leadership and why it is dragging on so long and why it is in.
Are we inviting the United States and other Western countries to cross our red lines all the time?
Because of the shocking difference in the behavior of Iran.
This country that we don't think about as being first world, second world, maybe third world, well, they showed teeth and they showed grit and they showed bravery and willingness to face death, which the Russian leadership gave up some time ago.
And that means Russian leadership has lost sovereignty.
It's a very peculiar situation.
The sovereignty has been emphasized as the quintessence of a nation's existence by the president.
But in failing to respond to challenges and provocations over the last three years of this war, Russian sovereignty has been diminished.
And the contrast with the bravery, directness, and willingness to face risk and death of the Iranians has been strikingly.
Not just to me, but to the Russian thinking classes.
I'm not speaking on my own behalf.
I'm speaking about what I see in their words before the microphone.
They are praising the Iranians in a way that reflects on their opinion of their own leadership.
To what do you attribute Putin's reticence, or in some cases, refusal to respond to these provocations?
I mean, the CIA and MI6 tried to kill him had he been in his country house.
He didn't seem to respond in any palpable way.
Nobody has an answer to that, myself included.
But we can guess a little bit.
And I have been reluctant to follow suggestions that people have been making for a long time.
Europe's New NATO Group00:15:31
That is the influence of oligarchs.
At this point, it is one of the few remaining explanations that deserves investigation.
After all, the horrible economic policy of the Central Bank of Russia under Elvira Nabyulina is horrible for whom?
It's horrible for the small and medium sized businesses.
They can't live with 20% interest rates, they can't live with 15% interest rates.
It's not good for the general public when the mortgage rates are low.
Cease to be heavily subsidized and they have to face market rates that are reflecting these impossibly high central rates from the Bank of Russia.
But for the big guys, it's nothing.
For all of the oligarchs who run the major industries that are privatized in the Elson years, they are receiving subsidized loans.
Now, if you want to step back and take it out of what looks like personalities to find a policy, the policy is there.
It is to cut off the oxygen.
Of the non essential production business activity, that is to say, consumer side activity, and it is to feed oxygen to heavy industry and particularly to the military industry.
I understand that.
And that is part of the subject that is entitled to this talk today the war economy.
There is no question that these things all come together under the heading of Russia going into a war economy.
All right.
Russia going into a war economy because the United States is apparently going to leave NATO and a group of European nations will put together some sort of a group as a replacement for NATO and the Russians recognize this.
Fair conclusion of your observations.
Oh, definitely.
And we have, as a backup to this, we don't have to speak about.
What Mr. Solovyov or others in talk shows and commentator shows are saying.
Listen to Lavrov.
Lavrov in the last two days came out with exactly these points, and Medvedev also came out with these points that the West, Western Europe is now militarizing, that Germany, which is the most powerful industrial base in Europe, is switching from production of cars in which it cannot compete with the Chinese, both in electric and in hybrid, and even in diesel and.
Gasoline cars, they're failing before the Chinese.
So, to make up for these losses of factories and workers, the government is throwing money, the government of Meretz is throwing a lot of money at these automobile industry factories so that they turn out trucks for the army and tanks.
In one of your essays this week that you sent me, you actually listed the names of the countries that are talking to each other about a substitute for NATO, and I don't remember what all of them were.
Can you tell us?
And then I have, of course, a follow up series of questions.
First of all, it's very important to emphasize that it is a group of countries, it is not the EU.
What you have in this group is a refusal to accept Ursula von der Leyen's notion.
That she will coop up all of Europe into an army over which she presides.
After all, she was a former Minister of Defense in Germany, a failed Minister of Defense, I add, but that's secondary.
The point is that the countries involved are acting to preserve their own sovereignty in the face of pretensions of the EU otherwise.
And these countries are, one country is not in the EU anymore, but may yet be in the EU in months to come.
That is Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Norway.
And the prize winner here is Ukraine.
Mr. Zelensky has been put forward as the band leader of this group.
And they are hoping that really Ukraine will fight to the last living Ukrainian for the sake of Europe.
So, Mrs. von der Leyen will or will not get her life's dream of becoming commander in chief of a European army?
It's dead, dead in the water.
They haven't even talked to her about it.
Heard about forming a European army that would be EU.
No, it's not EU and it's not NATO 2.0.
It is a group of countries that happen to be among the largest economies, with the best financed.
So they have the money, certainly Norway with its gas revenues and vast reserves is a source of capital, not just more than anything else.
And you've got Germany.
And France, France with its nuclear shield umbrella that's willing to hold out to cover the other countries from the rain.
Wow.
What role is there for the leader of Belarus, Lukashenko, in all of this?
Well, I mean, he's a devoted ally of President Putin, is he not?
Well, he has and he has not been.
He's blown hot and cold over the decades.
He's one of the longest ruling heads of state in Eastern Europe and Europe as a whole, so called last dictator of Europe.
He is quite a personality.
He is a big fighter for his own people.
He has challenged Putin in the past over the prices paid for hydrocarbons and over opening the Russian market.
To his dairy products and all kinds of other products.
So he has been a fighter for the economic interests of Belarus, which is a relatively poor country compared to Russia.
And yet, we in the West tend to look upon him as an appendage to Russia, that he does whatever the Russians say or want.
Well, nonsense.
He, as I said, he has challenged Putin directly in the past.
He has courted the Americans and the others to keep the Russians' attention on himself.
He is now being courted by the Trump administration.
He's been invited to the White House sometime or other.
They have lifted some of the sanctions on him in the misguided hope that they can divide him, separate him away from Putin.
That's impossible.
But he is not Putin.
He is a fighter.
We don't think of him as an alpha male.
He never posed like Putin, bare chested on a riding horse.
And we really wouldn't want to see him bare chested.
The guy is overweight.
And he always has been.
But when push came to shove in 2020, And when the CIA and their buddies in Poland and in Lithuania tried to arrange a Maidan revolution in Poland over the election and the opposition party member whom he imprisoned, whose wife took over, and they didn't want to recognize Lukashenko as the winner.
Well, at that time, in the demonstrations, he and his son went out in the public square with submachine guns and they said, We're ready.
Well, I haven't seen anybody in the Kremlin go out with submachine guns.
I haven't faced demonstrations like that, but still, the man has gotten cuts.
The last time I saw that was Saddam Hussein, you know, about five years before the American invasion, out in front of the presidential palace, celebrating something by shooting off a submachine gun.
How has the war in Iran, if at all, affected the ability to get arms to Ukraine to fight against the Russians?
Before answering that, I just want to finish the point about Lukashenko because it's not just an irrelevance to speak about who he is.
We may see a second front opened on the Belarus Ukrainian border.
Both sides are talking about provocations.
And if a second front is opened, which is why the whole war started on the Belarus front in 2022.
What does that mean?
The Belarus military will invade Ukraine?
No, it means that the Russian army will go through Belarus straight to Kiev.
That's what it means.
And that could strangely be the end of this war, which none of us has anticipated.
But I mention it because it's in the news, in the Russian news, and certainly in the Belarus news.
I'll be at the Belarus embassy this Friday, I'm going to ask.
Oh, wow.
But please let us know whatever tidbits of information you pick up.
Now, on the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu's war in Iran to what started out as Joe Biden's defense against the Russians in Ukraine.
Well, the link between these two wars is very close in many different parameters.
I've mentioned some of them in passing as weeks have gone by.
But just as a refresher, the most serious link between them is the way the war and the attack of the United States and Israel on Iran set off alarm bells in the Russian thinking classes, in the Russian foreign policy establishment.
As you mentioned, In asking the question, of course, the American support for Israel has drained away a vast amount of military equipment, particularly Patriots and other air defenses, which would have normally gone to Ukraine with paid for by Europe.
It's not there anymore.
It's either been destroyed or it's been repositioned to the point where the United States was borrowing Patriot missiles.
From some of the European countries which had been supplied previously.
So, the means of warfare have been deprived to Ukraine.
Nonetheless, the major action is not in the front of do the Ukrainians have patriots.
That's not the issue, really.
The real issue is drones.
And a lot of countries are supplying drones to Ukraine now, and the manufacturers of those drones were listed.
Listed publicly by the Russians within the past week, with Medvedev saying these are all now eligible targets for Russian missiles.
So the shift from heavy equipment supplied by the United States to still greater dependence on drones has made Ukraine intimately dependent on European suppliers of drones.
That is a factor that's come out of the Iran war.
So, a drone manufacturing plant in Germany, which with the permission of the German government is selling drones to Ukraine, is fair game for attack by the Russians in former President Medvedev's view.
Well, of course, we know that this is the good cop, bad cop, and Medvedev is playing the bad cop, but it's a message, an unsubtle message to Merz.
What's your step?
Because under the rules of war, we can do this.
What is your view of the extension of the ceasefire between the United States slash Israel and Iran?
And before you answer that, Writers is reporting this is actually the second report, Colonel McGregor reported it overnight that Iran has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which apparently tried to get through without paying the toll.
Well, as I say, the behavior of the Iranians is a shock to the people around Putin.
And it doesn't flatter him.
Because while he's talking up a storm and speechifying everywhere, getting 20 minutes of television time before every news bulletin, the Iranians are acting.
They're acting with phenomenal courage and brains.
And that is, and dignity.
They are defending their sovereignty.
Indeed, every day and several times a day.
What you just indicated is a further demonstration that they are not teasing the United States, they are not baiting the United States, they are threatening the United States.
Wow.
How do you see the war in Ukraine proceeding to a conclusion?
The Americans and the Israelis have failed at regime change.
If anything, this current government.
Is more hardline than it was a year ago, failed at seizing Iran's nuclear enriched material, failed at degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, failed at controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
What have they gained?
Well, the Russians are saying exactly what you're saying.
The Russian analysts are seeing it the same way, not just Dimitri Sims, whom you are in touch with, but other Other hosts and commentators and news program hosts, they are saying what you just said.
And all of this influences the views of the commander in chief and how the war should be changed in nature to a quick end.
I'd say the consensus, coming back to where we began, the consensus of the people and of the elites is the war should end very, very soon.
That is not a criticism, that is not a direct indication of what should be done.
But it is a strongly stated desire, which President Putin will have to respond to.
So far, he hasn't.
What you're about to see are the streets of Tehran last night as the military paraded its ballistic missiles through the streets and the public became aware of President Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire.
I think I've said this to you before.
This is not news to you, but your thoughts on it, please.
Tehran Streets Parade Missiles00:02:10
When Iran bombs Tel Aviv, the people run into bomb shelters.
When the U.S. bombs Tehran, the people run into the streets and wave flags.
I think that we'll have a test in Russia how they compare to what we've just seen.
There'll be two tests coming up.
These are national holidays.
On the 9th of May, of course, you have the anniversary of the liberation of Europe.
And there will be massive demonstrations in Moscow and across the country.
We'll see what change, if any, there is in the way this event is celebrated and what is.
What we visualize in the streets of Moscow and Petersburg, if they are picking up the hints that you just shown by the popular demonstrations in Tehran.
The next big test, of course, will be on the 11th of June.
That will be National Day in Russia.
It's like our 4th of July.
And that will be another event which will test the waters of the broad public who should come out into the streets in very good spirits and in support of the government.
We'll see how that runs.
What kind of mood prevails there?
Gilbert Doctorow, thank you very much.
Great analysis across the board on all these hotspots.
Deeply appreciated.
Please keep all those essays that you regularly send me coming on a regular basis.
They are most informative.
All the best to you.
We'll look forward to seeing you next week.
Thanks.
Thank you.
A busy and exciting day coming up at 9 30 this morning, Eastern.
If you're watching us live in an hour and four minutes, Live from Tehran, Professor Mohamed Mirandi.
At 11 o'clock this morning, the former director of counterterrorism for the United States government who resigned saying there's no basis for a war against Iran, Joe Kent, will be here.