Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano - Alastair Crooke : A Bigger War Coming - For Israel
Aired: 2026-04-19
Duration: 29:28


=== Global Tanker War Escalates (14:52) ===

[00:00:02]  Undeclared wars are commonplace.
[00:00:05]  Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression, with no complaints from the American people.
[00:00:13]  Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government.
[00:00:18]  To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected.
[00:00:26]  What if sometimes, to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government?
[00:00:31]  What if Jefferson was right?
[00:00:33]  What if that government is best which governs least?
[00:00:37]  What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong?
[00:00:41]  What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave?
[00:00:47]  What if freedom's greatest hour of danger is now?
[00:01:01]  Hi, everyone.
[00:01:01]  Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
[00:01:05]  Today is Monday, April 20th, 2026.
[00:01:09]  Alistair Crook will be with us in just a moment on A Bigger War is Coming for Israel.
[00:01:15]  But first, this.
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[00:02:27]  Alistair, good day to you, and thank you again for joining us and accommodating my schedule.
[00:02:32]  Before we talk about big.
[00:02:33]  Picture in Iran to the breaking news, which is within hours of the arrival of Vice President Vance and his entourage in Islamabad, hours before, the United States stopped, boarded, and seized an Iranian vessel.
[00:02:54]  Why would the Iranians negotiate with the United States after we stole one of its vessels?
[00:03:02]  I'm not sure they will.
[00:03:04]  It's not clear at the moment.
[00:03:06]  As of Three hours ago, when I spoke with someone who was part of this participated in Islamabad and part of the system there, said that no decision had been taken to engage in Islamabad or to travel to Islamabad for further talks.
[00:03:29]  Because it's not only the question of this cargo container ship that was Iranian returning, it plies regularly the China Iran route.
[00:03:42]  And was on its way, uh, back to Iran when it was stopped.
[00:03:47]  And then they fired into the engine room for rounds to make a hole in the engine room.
[00:03:53]  So the ship is completely disabled.
[00:03:56]  And then it was boarded and, and seized.
[00:04:00]  Um, the Iranian authorities have said there will be surely consequences for that.
[00:04:07]  But at the same time, another part of these understandings is falling apart because, as you remember, the whole thing was hinging very much on the ceasefire in Lebanon.
[00:04:18]  Ceasefire in Lebanon at the time, uh, Israel was carpet bombing parts of Beirut and other cities were being damaged.
[00:04:30]  Many, many civilians were, were being killed all the time.
[00:04:34]  And today, the Israelis are still establishing their buffer zone, their occupation zone, destroying large swathes of buildings on the ground, just loading them with explosives and blowing the whole lot to level ground.
[00:04:56]  I mean, really major destruction as they try and seize this part of Lebanon.
[00:05:03]  Well, this was not part of the ceasefire.
[00:05:05]  So I would say that.
[00:05:07]  Everything at the moment very much hangs in the balance.
[00:05:12]  And it's not clear.
[00:05:13]  At least it wasn't, as I say, a couple of hours ago when I spoke to people who would know, they were saying no decision yet has been taken, but a decision has been made to react to the attack on the Iranian ship by the naval vessels of America establishing the Trump.
[00:05:38]  If you like, blockade of Hormuz.
[00:05:42]  So I don't know whether, I don't know the latest news.
[00:05:47]  We have to wait and see whether we'll.
[00:05:49]  And then the next thing is, what is there going to be to talk about?
[00:05:56]  Are we going to talk about the Iranian 10-point plan, which was originally agreed by Mr. Trump as a working basis for negotiations, but which has not been implemented?
[00:06:11]  The ceasefire part of it with Lebanon, as I say, is being shredded as we talk now.
[00:06:20]  And so the rest of it, what is there going to be to talk about?
[00:06:25]  There was no real progress on the uranium issue.
[00:06:29]  There was no progress on the return of the 430 kilograms of uranium.
[00:06:36]  And I don't think there will be progress on that issue.
[00:06:40]  And everything has been very, Much turned into turmoil and uncertainty by these regular tweets by Trump saying, Victory, victory.
[00:06:51]  They've agreed to give up uranium enrichment.
[00:06:54]  They've agreed to hand over the 430 kilos of uranium.
[00:07:02]  The war is over.
[00:07:03]  Great success.
[00:07:04]  I mean, all of this was nonsense.
[00:07:07]  It was just not true.
[00:07:09]  I think Trump does want a way out, but this is not the way out.
[00:07:19]  I was going to ask you more questions about the seizure of the ship, but since you mentioned Trump's statements, one wonders if he's even capable of critical thinking, if he honestly believes to be true what he's saying, or if he thinks that stating something is going to make it happen.
[00:07:37]  I mean, for example, last night he said, We're going to work together to excavate the Iranian material.
[00:07:45]  This is preposterous.
[00:07:48]  Well, I mean, as you know, it's even getting into the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
[00:07:54]  You know, Trump is confabulating, that is, saying things and believing they're true, even though they are fantastic and the results of his delusions.
[00:08:09]  So I think he does believe this is true.
[00:08:12]  I think he does believe that Iran stands utterly defeated, its military, its Missiles, its navy has been sunk, et cetera, et cetera, that it has no money, it is bankrupt, and therefore is on the point of capitulation.
[00:08:30]  But nothing can be further from the truth.
[00:08:34]  Iran is actually stronger today than it was, certainly during the 12 day war.
[00:08:42]  It has plenty of money from the fees that it has been charging to vessels passing through Hormuz.
[00:08:50]  And it's not about to give that up.
[00:08:54]  They believe they have every legal right to that under the law of the sea.
[00:08:58]  Um, doesn't provide for, um, a free, um, that it's a free navigation as Trump says it.
[00:09:08]  Um, it does provide the law of the sea, provide for, um, for vessels safe transit through territorial waters, providing those vessels adhere to the regulations and the requirements Of the coastal parties, i.e., the littoral states bordering that waterway.
[00:09:32]  And so this is what Iran is enforcing.
[00:09:37]  And they say, you know, we don't have international waters here because the territorial waters of Iran go to the midpoint and beyond of the Homer Strait and Omana territorial waters extend and meet it halfway through.
[00:09:55]  So there are no.
[00:09:56]  International waters or, you know, free navigation around the Hormuz Strait in law.
[00:10:04]  That, at least, I'm not a lawyer, but that is a position that is taken very strongly by Iran.
[00:10:12]  So they're not about to back down on this.
[00:10:15]  The question, you know, that has caused so much of this confusion was the one you asked last week.
[00:10:21]  Are the straits open or are they shut?
[00:10:23]  Yes, I was going to ask you the same thing now.
[00:10:28]  And I replied then, it's both.
[00:10:31]  And it's still both, in that, from the Iranian position, the ceasefire agreement was that they would limit the number of vessels passing through Hormuz, and they would inspect them, and they would submit those vessels to their own protocols, i.e., payment of a fee, and in what currency it would be paid, and what its cargo would be.
[00:11:01]  It wouldn't be a military car, etc.
[00:11:05]  So that's what they mean by open when they say limited passage subject to Iranian protocols.
[00:11:13]  Well, that translates in the mainstream media in the West, oh, it's free for all.
[00:11:21]  Everyone can come and go.
[00:11:22]  It's no fees, there are no restrictions.
[00:11:25]  It's open to the world.
[00:11:27]  That isn't what was meant.
[00:11:30]  And it did confuse people.
[00:11:32]  What did the U.S. gain?
[00:11:35]  By stopping this ship?
[00:11:36]  Are they going to steal the oil and direct the ship to Louisiana?
[00:11:41]  I mean, what conceivable benefit was there to doing this?
[00:11:46]  It doesn't have any oil.
[00:11:48]  It's the container ship.
[00:11:50]  And it was proceeding from Malaysia through from China through to Iran.
[00:11:56]  So it was dry cargo.
[00:11:57]  It doesn't have any oil aboard.
[00:12:00]  This was a show of strength.
[00:12:02]  Uh, was it intended, um, uh, in order to try, was it intended to put pressure on the Iranians?
[00:12:12]  Or was it intended, if you like, as part of a new structure of containing, um, the pass, the, the naval passageways around the world?
[00:12:25]  Because you have to put this into the context that, uh, a few days earlier, um, the Treasury Secretary, Steve Bennett, Ben Besson, Was said that they were going to also put secondary sanctions on any bank or any financial institution that trades with Iran.
[00:12:50]  I mean, this is really extending the war to a global tanker war.
[00:12:58]  We already have a tanker war of Venezuela targeted at China.
[00:13:05]  We have a tanker war targeted on Cuba.
[00:13:10]  Um, we now have, if you like, uh, uh, a tanker war target on Chinese vessels, uh, trading with Iran in oil, where they take the majority of Iranian oil.
[00:13:24]  Um, and I, the Chinese have reacted really badly to this.
[00:13:29]  And that's not surprising because, you know, this seems to be part of a bigger picture, which I pointed out before, which was in the national, uh, security statement.
[00:13:41]  Which said that China must be coerced into accepting that it increases its internal consumption in China.
[00:13:52]  In other words, it must export less.
[00:13:55]  And by exporting less, leave more room for American exports in the global market.
[00:14:01]  That is the intention.
[00:14:03]  And the NSS suggests, therefore, um, that either what they, we can do that through tariffs or we can do it by controlling and tightening the supply lines of oil and fuel to China.
[00:14:20]  Well, they're doing that and been doing that in Venezuela.
[00:14:24]  They've been doing it elsewhere.
[00:14:25]  And now they're doing it through the home moves.
[00:14:28]  So, China is very disturbed by this.
[00:14:30]  This is a big, important part of the fact that the hormones of this war with Iran is actually now emerging to have global implications, global implications for China, how it trades.
[00:14:49]  It's outrage.
[00:14:50]  I mean, they say, what right has the United States to interfere?

=== Iran's Radicalizing Revolution (13:59) ===

[00:14:54]  We have trade and navigation agreements with Iran, and you're going to attack or seize.
[00:15:02]  Our ships are plying their way legally to Iran to load oil, which is part of our Chinese supply line.
[00:15:10]  This is unacceptable.
[00:15:12]  And I'm sure there will be repercussions from China for that.
[00:15:18]  So the whole thing is escalating.
[00:15:20]  And when you said, you know, sort of where are we going?
[00:15:23]  I think, therefore, you know, there is really, I mean, no easy way out for Trump and the team.
[00:15:33]  Vance still hopes and says that he hopes that he can come to an agreement on enrichment, which would persuade the Iranians to hand over the 430 kilos of enriched uranium at 60%.
[00:15:51]  He says, this is the key because what would happen?
[00:15:56]  I mean, look what happens if we don't take that and Iran remains in control of hormones.
[00:16:05]  I mean, this is.
[00:16:07]  Catastrophe for the United States because Iran is making so much money.
[00:16:13]  It would make hundreds of billions in a year of control of the hormones.
[00:16:20]  And if it still holds on to the 430 kilos of uranium, it would potentially be able to move through a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so, which it hasn't done so far.
[00:16:36]  It could choose to do so quite easily.
[00:16:40]  So we would end up with making Iran as the fourth, if you like, global path Russia, China, and Iran, and the United States.
[00:16:52]  And it says that is, you know, this is too much of a loss.
[00:16:57]  I mean, you know, we want to win, but this would be an enormous loss because Iran would emerge the stronger.
[00:17:07]  And it has emerged so far as the strongest.
[00:17:12]  Well, so when the war started, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz was not on the table.
[00:17:19]  It was open and vehicles were traversing at will.
[00:17:24]  Now, of course, Iran has exercised its power to regulate and safeguard the passage and charge a reasonable fee because it is the bordering landowner.
[00:17:36]  The other areas that the Israelis and the Americans sought I wonder if they've given up the ghost.
[00:17:43]  Regime change?
[00:17:44]  No.
[00:17:45]  Destruction of Iran ballistic missiles?
[00:17:48]  No.
[00:17:49]  Destruction of Iran proxies, uh, in the Middle East?
[00:17:53]  No.
[00:17:54]  What remains for the Israelis and the Americans to attempt to achieve other than seizing this thousand pounds, whatever it weighs, uh, of, uh, enriched uranium?
[00:18:08]  Well, you put your finger precisely on the dilemma facing, um, Israel and facing it at the moment, uh, because, uh, Netanyahu is, is, is desperate.
[00:18:21]  His own people say to him, there's not going to be a collapse of the Iranian state.
[00:18:27]  It's not going to happen.
[00:18:29]  We don't see any sign.
[00:18:31]  In fact, if you see what's happening on the ground, you'll understand the opposite is happening.
[00:18:36]  The people are becoming more radicalized.
[00:18:38]  Um, secondly, They realized they haven't destroyed.
[00:18:44]  For all their claims, again, false claims, they've destroyed the manufacturing capacity.
[00:18:50]  Actually, after the 12 day war, Iran moved that missile manufacturing capacity underground, and they haven't been able to bomb it or damage it.
[00:19:04]  A few bits on the surface, maybe, but even the Iranians, even the Israelis now, are saying they are quickly restoring their missile capabilities from this last.
[00:19:18]  Four week war.
[00:19:19]  They're already restoring it and they're restoring it very, very, very quickly.
[00:19:24]  And so the last thing is on the uranium side.
[00:19:27]  No, it's not going to.
[00:19:29]  I mean, Iran is going to stay by its right to enrich under the NPT.
[00:19:37]  You know, it's this old story.
[00:19:39]  And I remember, I mean, 20 years ago, I went to Iran to talk to the National Security Council saying how Rand organization, then it was the Rand organization, was saying, There can be no enrichment, and they had a sort of proof to show why enrichment could never be allowed in Iran.
[00:19:58]  So, I mean, you know, we've been talking this issue 20 years.
[00:20:02]  I mean, I haven't been directly involved since then, but I mean, you know, it's nothing, it's, you know, they're not going to give way.
[00:20:12]  So, why would Iran, if you like, at this point capitulate as it seems Mr. Trump believes they're about to?
[00:20:24]  Well, they won't.
[00:20:25]  And I just mentioned that I just want to underline it because I think it's so significant.
[00:20:32]  If you look at the videos, what do you see in Iran?
[00:20:36]  Every night, young people on the street for hours on end, whether it's raining or clear, they are out there protesting against the war on Iran.
[00:20:49]  They are there and they are becoming more and more radical.
[00:20:54]  What is happening is that we're seeing a new iteration of the Iranian revolution, actually amongst the young, the very young, not the middle age, not the older ones, but the very young are proclaiming the Iranian revolution.
[00:21:11]  It's not an ideological thing.
[00:21:13]  It's not about, if you like, a state structure or power structure.
[00:21:19]  It is about values of the revolution and about bringing those values back.
[00:21:26]  And so there's a huge, there have been big demonstrations by women going out on their trucks with machine guns and guns around saying they're ready to fight.
[00:21:38]  They're on the bridges, they're around the nuclear power stations.
[00:21:42]  They're saying, if we have to be martyrs, we are ready for it.
[00:21:46]  We are fighting for Iran and its revolution.
[00:21:50]  So actually, you know, not only is there not going to be a collapse of Iran, it's going to go in the other direction.
[00:21:58]  Iran is becoming.
[00:22:01]  Much more, if you like, following, there's a sort of an energy that is present, an energy of the Iranian revolution, because this is the character of the Shi'i people across the world, whether it is in Lebanon or whether it is in other parts.
[00:22:20]  So, you know, when I keep seeing people ask, and I get asked too, I mean, will the political level.
[00:22:35]  You know, be bypassed by the IRGC or will the political level accede to it?
[00:22:43]  You know, they're talking about something that is very old.
[00:22:50]  I mean, you know, Zarif wrote an article in Foreign Affairs saying there was a way open.
[00:22:56]  I mean, there was, at the time of the revolution, an element that supported the revolution, but felt it was not necessarily inconsistent or incompatible with engagement in the Western world.
[00:23:10]  That current is over, and particularly amongst the young.
[00:23:15]  It just doesn't, it's not, that's not the political etching, as people keep calling it.
[00:23:21]  It is a tiny faction within a country that is wholly committed to the defense of Iran and is becoming more revolutionary.
[00:23:32]  Trump apparently lives in his own fantasy world, but he's surrounded by people who don't.
[00:23:40]  And he and Netanyahu, or they and Netanyahu, must recognize.
[00:23:46]  The terrible straits that they're in, and how they have not achieved any of their goals in this war.
[00:23:52]  What do you think they're planning next?
[00:23:54]  Another massive attack?
[00:23:57]  Well, I think that they're desperate to get out quickly because there are things that are going to occur very shortly.
[00:24:05]  I mean, the supply line disruption has been going on, and it has a certain timeline.
[00:24:12]  And after about 45 days, I mean, you don't notice it.
[00:24:18]  The supplies are starting to break down, supply lines aren't working.
[00:24:22]  But after a while, then suddenly it becomes much more apparent because things are just not in the shops, because petrol isn't on the station, gasoline isn't on the station for you to buy.
[00:24:37]  I mean, then it becomes apparent.
[00:24:39]  So he knows, I think, although that's not very clear, but I do think he understands the timeline before the disruption that has taken place in the Iran war.
[00:24:51]  Is manifest very physically for ordinary Americans, is one thing, and then they have the Authorization of War Act coming up, I think, on the 1st of May, the 60 days by which then he has to get authorization from Congress to continue the hostilities against Iran.
[00:25:14]  I mean, it's very complicated, I know, and it's not clear how that will go at all, but he's got aware.
[00:25:23]  And the team are aware that if they don't start pivoting away from this and towards a positive economic message to the people before the midterms, disaster is coming.
[00:25:39]  They apparently don't understand that.
[00:25:41]  Now, here's Mike Waltz, who, though he is the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., is not a diplomat and, in my view, is a political hack, but he's arguing, we'll play this clip momentarily, that the Americans need to.
[00:25:57]  Escalate in order to de escalate.
[00:25:59]  This is ridiculous, but of course, I want your thoughts on it.
[00:26:02]  Course number three.
[00:26:03]  All options are on the table.
[00:26:04]  The president's prepared to escalate, to de escalate.
[00:26:08]  He means it when he said nothing that benefits Iran is coming out of the straits.
[00:26:14]  And then on top of that, Secretary Besant announced Operation Economic Fury, where we are prepared to put secondary sanctions on banks who are transacting in illegal Iranian oil.
[00:26:28]  So, we are truly putting maximum pressure on every aspect of the Iranian economy.
[00:26:34]  And at some point, they are going to see some level of common sense and pragmatism and say enough is enough with this nuclear obsession.
[00:26:44]  President can give up on his trip to Beijing.
[00:26:48]  I mean, you know, it's like listening to General Kellogg again with the Ukraine.
[00:26:53]  Oh, no, only when more pressure is put onto Russia, then they'll change.
[00:26:58]  More pressure, more pressure.
[00:27:00]  And this is the same argument coming out in respect to Iran.
[00:27:05]  But what I would say is that the monitoring of American movements is showing, you know, a redeployment of warships, the establishment of Of an air bridge involving heavy transport aircraft such as the C 5 and C 17 and increased reconnaissance drone flights over Iranian territory.
[00:27:30]  Tehran is looking at these and wondering is it pressure or is this preparation for another surprise attack?
[00:27:41]  Overall, Iran expects another round of attack.
[00:27:45]  They're preparing for war, another.
[00:27:48]  Element of war as Trump tries to, if you like, force a capitulation by Iran.
[00:27:56]  That Iran is not in the way of needing to capitulate or make concessions to America.
[00:28:02]  It's fine.
[00:28:03]  It has money, got money.
[00:28:05]  It has its missiles intact.
[00:28:07]  It can control the Straits of Hormuz.
[00:28:10]  Why should it concede?
[00:28:11]  It's not going to.
[00:28:13]  And they are desperate to try and do this.
[00:28:15]  So I think that's why, as you rightly said, I predicted that we will see.
[00:28:21]  Uh, a wider and bigger, uh, war.
[00:28:25]  And incidentally, the Russians have been warning about that too.
[00:28:29]  The, the National Security Council of Moscow put out a statement saying that they were monitoring this build up of the U.S. forces, um, in the Middle East.
[00:28:42]  Uh, and they expect that the, if you like, the Islamabad talks are a cover for a further round of escalation.
[00:28:51]  That's the Russian view.
[00:28:53]  Wow.

=== Moscow Warns of Wider War (00:33) ===

[00:28:54]  Alistair, thank you very much, my dear friend.
[00:28:57]  A terrific and gifted analysis, as always.
[00:29:01]  All the best to you.
[00:29:02]  We'll look forward to seeing you next week.
[00:29:04]  Thanks very much.
[00:29:06]  Bye bye.
[00:29:08]  A terrific, terrific analysis.
[00:29:10]  And more to come.
[00:29:11]  At nine this morning, Larry Johnson.
[00:29:14]  At 10 this morning, Ray McGovern.
[00:29:16]  At 11 this morning, Professor Jeffrey Sachs.
[00:29:20]  At two this afternoon, Kyle Lanzalone.
[00:29:23]  Cleanup hitter.
[00:29:24]  At three this afternoon, Scott Ritter, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.