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May 11, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
30:01
Larry Johnson : Does Trump Understand Russia?
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Monday, May 12, 2025.
Larry Johnson will be here with us in just a minute on Does Donald Trump Really Understand Russia?
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Larry Johnson, welcome here, my dear friend.
You and I, usually with Ray, have spent, the governor, have spent a fair amount of time trying to get a handle on Donald Trump's understanding of the special military operation in Ukraine.
Do you think he has a realistic understanding of the special military operation and the No.
If we judge based upon what he says and does in public, absolutely not.
You know, he pretends that he's this outside observer going, "Wow, man, look at those Russians and Ukrainians.
Gosh, why are they fighting each other?" In his administration, it was under Donald Trump's first term in office that the Ukrainian military got up into, you know, the reserves grew to 900,000.
And it was during Donald Trump's time in office that the nature of the military exercises that were being carried out by NATO and by U.S. European Command.
Shifted from, let's call it defensive in nature, to offensive.
And by offensive, I mean conducting like an Operation Seabreeze in March of 2017.
Who was president?
Donald Trump.
That Operation Seabreeze contained anti-submarine warfare in the Black Sea and amphibious warfare in the Black Sea.
And then in September 2020, flying B-52s along the Crimean coast.
B-52s' sole mission is to...
Bomb the hell out of Russia.
So, you know, Trump to pretend like, yeah, I don't know anything about this.
I don't know why these guys are fighting.
We've got to stop this.
You want to stop it?
Stop sending attack of missiles, which you just did the other day.
Stop sending Patriot missiles, which you did the other day.
And you brag about sending Javelin.
You know, I think Trump's act is wearing real thin in the Kremlin.
It's like, you know, this clown wants to pretend that he has no role in this, whereas the United States, were it not for the U.S. role, this war never would have started.
Agreed on everything you're saying.
Did Biden even send Atacums, Taurus, and Javelins?
Yes.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
He didn't send Taurus.
I just posted at sonar21.com, my website, the speech that Vladimir Putin delivered on February 24, 2022.
I posted it because we keep hearing the expression out of Putin and other Kremlin officials about whatever talks happen, they've got to address the root causes of this conflict.
And in that speech, Putin lays out very clearly what the root causes are.
And to summarize it in a very simple sentence, it is NATO.
The expansion of NATO.
In this entire affair, Ukraine has been just a proxy.
It's been the organ grinder monkey.
It's there to dance around at the behest of the West.
It's to be used as a club to beat Russia into submission.
But ultimately, NATO has got to back the hell off.
Now, that expansion began under Bill Clinton, but manifested itself full bore in Trump's first term, did it not?
No, actually, it was in George W. Bush's first term in 2004.
So it went from Clinton added three countries, then Bush added seven, and then...
You know, I don't know if any were added under Trump or not.
No, I'm not talking about countries added.
I'm talking about the activities of NATO.
You said earlier, unless I misunderstood you, NATO's activities in Trump's first term or NATO's preparedness, I should say, in Trump's first term.
went from defensive to offensive.
Certainly, Putin and the Russian intel know that.
Yes.
That's what Putin makes clear.
This process of NATO's expansion, it was What I noticed was the number of exercises during Donald Trump's four years increased.
So there were more military exercises by one or two a year, but it was still significant enough that there was expanding.
And again, put yourself in the position of Russia.
If the United States was facing Russian military exercises, if all of a sudden they sign new deals with Canada and Mexico, well, we would be outraged and alarmed.
We would see that as an offensive threat to us.
And yet we do the same to Russia and expect them not to react?
But again, it's not just the exercises.
This was all part of a broader strategy that was outlined in papers that I've mentioned before.
The one by A. Wes Mitchell that was submitted to the Pentagon in 2020, again, while Donald Trump was president, laying out the case that we needed to use Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia, start a war, defeat Russia, and then use Russia as a lackey, a vassal, so we could go after China.
That's what this is all about.
So how much longer can this war last?
I mean, is there no end to it if we continue the spigot of military supplies?
At some point, the authorization will end.
I think you've said, and others have said here, that there's no appetite in Congress if Trump were to go and ask for more.
Well, the well is running dry on the western side.
Russia is going to press this war through to a military victory, I believe.
Because the foundations for a negotiated settlement would require the West to back away, back off, and start actually dismantling NATO.
Because unless NATO stops...
Unless NATO stops these military exercises that are directed at attacking Russia, unless they stop exercises that are designed to bottle up the Russian fleet, the threat of NATO will persist and at some point it's going to have to be dealt with by Russia.
They can't just ignore it.
Putin realized this back in 2008.
But he also realized that at the time, the Russian economy and the Russian military were in no condition to confront the West.
And that's why they worked for the ensuing 14 years in trying to rebuild both the economy and the military.
So I think what we're likely to see take place for the remainder of this year, barring a surrender by Ukraine.
Once they, if they come to their senses, which, you know, they may not, is you're going to see the four other oblasts that are east of the Dnieper River, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnieper-Petrovsk.
Those will fall under the control of Russia.
So Russia's going to expand its control to the east, and it's also going to take Odessa at some point.
The problem for NATO is NATO can talk tough.
They've got big threats.
But they don't have an industrial base to produce the weapons and materials.
They're running out.
And in fact, the debate within the U.S. defense community is we can't afford to continue to pour weapons into both Ukraine and Israel because we're depleting what we're going to need to take on those Chinese.
That's their thinking.
You know, this thing could go on for another two years with the Ukrainians losing more and more and more territory.
Well, they're not only losing more and more and more territory, you could say the same about human beings, can't you?
Aren't they now at the point where they're looking for college students and impressing them?
You go to a bar on a Saturday night and Monday morning you wake up in a uniform?
Yeah, no, they continue to go out and snatch people off the street.
Ukraine, the other irony, though, here is Ukraine has not undertaken yet a full mobilization where it is required that everybody...
You know, men and women sign up, get involved, and go to the fight.
But, you know, part of that is also the lack of the material they need to put, you know, on uniforms and have sufficient firearms.
Russia has been engaged in a war of depletion, of attrition, and they're going to continue that.
What do you think the Kremlin, how do you think the Kremlin views?
I don't mean the person Steve Whitcoff, but the idea of the United States of America as a mediator when, in fact, it is a co-belligerent planner, plotter, and financier of the war.
We know all this from the New York Times piece about General Cavoli and General Karoli, two different names, sound similar, planning in Wiesbaden, Germany.
Targets for the Ukrainians to attack.
Do I have that right?
Yeah, no, absolutely right.
This one of Putin's advisors, Ushakov, reportedly said last week, I think it was on Victory Day, he says, we're far more disappointed and disillusioned with the U.S. views with respect to this than the U.S. is with respect to us.
So, you know, Putin and the Russians understand it.
They would prefer to work out a deal with the United States.
But the heart of that deal is going to be the United States has got to stop enabling this conflict.
We've been the major facilitator of it.
We're, you know, just as, again, here last week, Trump allows Germany to ship U.S.-made weapons.
Attack them and the missiles that are fired for the Patriot missile batteries.
Shift them to Ukraine.
We're, you know, you go back to your days as a judge.
You get some defendant that comes before you and said, I didn't shoot the lady.
I just gave the gun and the bullets and the ammunition to the kid that did the shooting.
Hey, guilty.
It's the same crime.
Yeah.
Here's Zelensky, President Zelensky, on Saturday.
I'm going to Turkey and I expect Putin to be there.
Cut number two.
I will be in Turkey this Thursday, May the 15th, and I expect Putin to come to Turkey as well, personally.
And I hope that this time Putin won't be looking for excuses as to why he can't make it.
We are ready to talk to end this war.
30 days of ceasefire will be self-sufficient and will lead to 60 days of ceasefire.
Whereas you and I know from our personal interaction with these people and from what they've said publicly, they're not going to do this.
Why give the Americans and the Ukrainians 30 days of ceasefire to rearm and remand the Ukraine?
Well, Vladimir Zelensky, the cocaine cowboy that he is, forgot one very important fact.
He issued a decree in 2022, I think it was September or October, prohibiting, banning any Ukrainian, including him, from talking to the Russians.
And that was ratified by the Ukrainian parliament.
Right, by the RADA.
So...
Until he lifts that, until that ban is lifted, he can't talk to the Russians.
But, you know, Putin's not going to be bullied into this and isn't going to be cajoled.
But, you know, in a related thing, maybe you ought to, you know, Chris could queue up Jerry Garcia and the Grateful Dead singing Casey Jones.
Because did you see part of Zelensky's courage?
It came as a result of a trip by Starmer of the UK, Macron of France, Merz of Germany, and then Tusk of Poland.
And they've got this brief clip of Macron, Starmer, and Merz on board a train And there's basically a bag, a little bag, a paper bag, that had been used filled with cocaine, and off to the side is a spoon used for, you know, putting cocaine up one's nose.
So Mert sits down and hides the spoon, and Macron picks the paper up and hides it under the table.
They were riding that train high on cocaine!
Well, listen, I know that that's what...
Social media is saying, but we really don't know that it was cocaine in there.
They would be crazy to do that in a train car where they knew there was a camera in there.
Anyway, to matters more serious, here's Dmitry Peskov on Saturday.
He's the official spokesperson for the Kremlin, talking about the ceasefire, talking about Europe.
After we hear him, I'm going to ask you, If the Russians even give a damn about those four characters on the train to Kyiv.
Chris, cut number four.
Actually, a couple of days ago, Putin announced a ceasefire for three days.
Have you heard any reaction from Kyiv?
No.
We haven't heard it either.
Have you heard any criticism of Kyiv for not being able to respond or not willing to respond?
No.
So if Kyiv is willing to have a ceasefire, why not to have a ceasefire for at least three days?
Europe is actually confronting us very openly.
We feel it, we know it, and we are quite accustomed to that.
So Russia is quite resistant to any kinds of pressure.
We are open for dialogue.
We are open for attempts to have a settlement in Ukraine.
We do appreciate efforts of mediation.
We do appreciate, and we're very great.
From the Trump administration?
Of course, of course.
But at the same time, it's quite useless to try to press upon us.
Yeah.
So he wouldn't, Zelensky wouldn't agree to the three-day ceasefire so they could celebrate Victory Day at the end of last week.
Why would the Russians agree?
And of course we have that clip that we ran many times and you and I had the privilege of interviewing him of Foreign Minister Lavrov saying we're not going to give them 30 days to rearm, to regroup.
Does Russia care that Tusk Yeah, they do.
I mean, you know, Russia could have bombed that train, but...
Well, I think...
Yeah, we're back.
Okay, go ahead.
Russia could have bombed the train, but...
Yeah, Russia could have bombed the train, but it's not going to establish that precedent of going after and blowing up.
But, you know, they recognize, again, Ukraine is simply a tool in this.
The real problem is Europe and the United States and NATO.
And for Starmer, Mertz, Macron, Tusk, you know, they're just acting out the NATO fantasy.
Until NATO is ended, Russia is going to continue to be a threat.
Well, what happens if Trump pulls the United States out of NATO?
Or you don't think that that's going to happen?
I don't think it'll happen, but it'd be a good start.
The Russians...
Russia's going to be prepared to defend itself at all costs.
Right.
Let me switch gears while we're talking about Trump.
Do you believe the snubbing of Netanyahu is intentional and because Trump is sick and tired of being manipulated by him?
Yes.
I think the rift is genuine.
The fact that we've got even Mike Huckabee out telling the Israelis, hey, we don't have to coordinate anything with you.
And then the fact that this hostage release has been obtained without talking to Israel or consulting with Israel.
So maybe we're really seeing a genuine turn in this conflict where Donald Trump will put pressure on Israel to stop the genocide.
What are your thoughts on this Qatari plane, this $400 million jet that they want to give to the Defense Department and then to the Trump Library Foundation once he's no longer in office?
And this is all being discussed while he's going to Qatar.
I don't know if he's going to Qatar to cut a deal for his son-in-law or if he's going to Qatar to cut a deal to bring about peace to the Middle East.
Well, I'm amused by this.
So we're all upset that some country's going to give us something?
Where we've been spending trillions of dollars in foreign aid over the years?
Giving other countries things?
You know, it'd be one thing if this was being directly given to Donald Trump as his own personal airplane.
Well, that would be a very serious issue under the Constitution.
But giving it to the DOD or even giving it to a library is not, as I view it, a violation of the Constitution.
It may not look good.
It's a political headache he doesn't need.
Maybe he doesn't care.
But it's not a bribe.
Yeah.
I mean, like I said, it's being given to the country.
It's being given to the government, not given to Donald Trump.
But, you know, this goes back to sort of the Trump derangement syndrome.
No matter what he does, good, bad, or indifferent, they're always going to be finding a way to, you know, have a fainting spell.
You know, bring the fainting couch, or this is a crisis.
How do you think the special military operation will end, Larry?
I think it's going to end with much as the Battle of Stalingrad ended with a surrender by the Ukrainians.
It'll be a military defeat.
And the military defeat will not be just Ukraine, it will be NATO.
NATO will be completely exposed as a paper tiger, a hollowed out shell.
Lots of bluster, lots of talk.
Do those four on that train car have the ability, the assets...
To replace U.S. military aid if Trump turns the spigot off or if it runs out and Congress refuses to renew it?
No, absolutely not.
In fact, the British military just reported that they no longer have any of their mobile artillery pieces.
They're all gone.
They've given them all into Ukraine and they've all been destroyed.
And it's not like they've got some great manufacturing plants.
They're ready to start spitting these things out.
So the industrial base of Germany, France, the UK is just a shell of what it was 40, 50 years ago.
And it can't come back overnight.
If they even try to rebuild it, you're looking at a multi-year, you know, four or five years to even get something up and possibly running.
In the meantime, Russia is outpacing them dramatically.
And Russia's not alone.
It's in partnership with China, North Korea, Iran.
Russia's in a much stronger position than anybody in the West right now.
If I could jump back to the Israelis for a minute.
While we've been on air, Larry, this fellow, Eden Alexander, who's from New Jersey, but was a member of the IDF and was...
captured on October 7th was just released by Hamas.
You may say, "All right, one guy was released." Ah, but this was negotiated by the U.S. directly with Hamas, the Netanyahu How do you think this sits with him, with Netanyahu?
I mean, this is obviously timed to coincide with Trump's arrival in Saudi Arabia tomorrow.
Well, this is another step in a series of moves that Trump's made over the last four weeks.
First, removing Mike Waltz as the National Security Advisor and leaking to the press that it was done because Waltz was conspiring with Bibi Netanyahu.
Withdrawing the U.S. naval force from the Red Sea, declaring a ceasefire with the Houthis, again without consulting Israel or informing Israel in advance.
They learned about it from the news.
Redeploying the B-2s out of Diego Garcia back to the United States without consulting or telling Israel about it.
And now securing the release of this hostage by negotiating directly with Qatar and Egypt, who were talking directly to Hamas.
And frankly, I'm sure there's some talks underway with the Saudis about the future of U.S.-Saudi relationship depends on whether or not the United States will back a Palestinian state.
So Israel...
What you're hearing out of Israel is Netanyahu saying, we're going to have to prepare for living without U.S. security assistance.
They can't live without U.S. security assistance.
They can't exist without U.S. security assistance, can they?
Exactly right.
They can't live without us.
So they are beholden to us.
So this is, you know, with Trump, you've got to watch what he does.
We can't really focus so much on what he says.
But if these actions, if the actions match the words, because he's going to be getting a great photo op with this released hostage in Qatar, I think they're going to fly him to Doha.
So, you know, Trump's going to take a victory lap on that.
And in Israel and the Hebrew press, I didn't get the chance to watch Alistair yet today, but I'm sure I've noticed in some of the Hebrew press, They're sort of sounding the alarm bell that this relationship with Washington has soured rapidly and soured dramatically.
Every indication is Israel domestically, Israel foreign policy, the ICC, Tel Aviv, Washington, is that it's time for Netanyahu to go.
Every indication except Netanyahu's, of course.
Well, I even think that that's sort of what Whitcoff is working on right now, with other, you know, with the other, what the United States would consider more moderate members of the Israeli society, people like Benny Gantz.
Now, in saying that, that doesn't mean that therefore they come in with the same, more open...
I think the overwhelming majority of Israelis still reject any concept of allowing an independent Palestinian nation.
But the political realities in the region are such that the United States has lost control of the narrative.
If you think about it, Judge, our entire policy over the last 60 years has been built Nixon opened to China in order to use China as a lever against Russia.
The United States backed Iraq in 1980 going to war with Iran, and we wanted both sides fighting in order to try to weaken Russia.
And we backed the war of the Saudis against the Houthis again.
To go after Iran.
Well, all of those are now sort of coming apart at the seams.
Russia and China are firmly united.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have grown, their ties have grown much, much closer in the war that once raged between the Houthis and the Saudis have abated.
So all of a sudden, you know, this U.S. divide and conquer strategy is sort of blowing up in our face.
You can add...
Working with Osama bin Laden to fight the Russians in Afghanistan.
Yeah, yeah.
Wow.
Well, and the other radical Islamic groups that were based in Pakistan.
And again, here we've just seen this latest attack that set Pakistan and India at each other's throats.
I firmly believe there was a Western hand behind the individuals that carried out that attack in order to simply provoke this kind of confrontation between India and Pakistan.
As long as we get other people fighting, it serves our interests.
And it's sick and it's perverse.
That's an understatement, my dear friend.
Larry, thank you very much for your time.
We look forward to seeing you Friday.
With McGovern, who actually looks and sounds younger than before he went to Russia.
I don't know what the hell he did over there.
Yeah, he probably got to eat some great borscht.
Thank you, Larry.
We'll see you Friday.
All the best.
Okay, thank you.
Sure.
Coming up later today, Scott Ritter, we have...
Moved him for technical reasons from 3 to 2. So Scott Ritter, 2 o 'clock Eastern this afternoon.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs at 4.30.
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