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April 6, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
27:20
Alastair Crooke : Trump Demands the Impossible from Iran.
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Monday, April 7th, 2025.
Alistair Crook will be here with us in just a moment on what exactly is Trump demanding from Iran, and can they even comply with it?
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Pastor Crook, good day to you, my friend, and welcome here, as always.
Thanks for accommodating my schedule.
What are the demands that Donald Trump has recently made on Iran?
Well, these demands that he made on the 4th of February, just last month, are very similar to ones he made in May 2018.
Demands are not just demands.
They are encapsulated in the National Presidential Memorandum.
And that effectively is a legally binding directive that requires every branch of the American government to carry out the specific actions very precisely.
And there are several demands in that.
The first, that Iran should be denied.
Secondly, that it should be denied intercontinental missiles.
Thirdly, that it should be denied, too, other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities.
And to this end, the memorandum directs maximum economic pressure imposed on Iran with the Treasury Act to derive Iran's exports to zero,
that the U.S. work to trigger the JCPOA snapback sanctions, and that Iran's malign influence abroad, i.e.
its proxies, as they call it, be neutralized.
I mean, couched in these bindings and maximalists, it appears to be moving Trump and the U.S. Down a path where war is the only outcome.
I don't know how much of it could be bluster, but as I say, you need to go back and sort of understand that with this sort of demands, they almost are exactly the demands that Trump imposed through Pompeo.
At the time, in 2018, after in May he withdrew from the JCPOA because Netanyahu told him it wasn't forceful enough and more needed to be done to weaken Iran.
And these were almost exactly the same, a few extra points in it, that Iran had to declare every piece of evidence of its past weapons program.
Which, as the American intelligence CIA say, was stopped and completely ceased in 2003.
And their assessment is it's never been restarted.
And it also dealt with human rights and other issues.
I mean, this is a long list of demands.
And the question is, are these legally binding demands?
Which he says has to be done within a month now.
It was two months when he said it, but we're now in April.
So in spring, this ultimatum comes due.
And why is it being rushed along so quickly?
Because it's in the later part of this year, what I described as the snapback sanctions, which is an automatic process.
By which if one of the EU-3 member states who belong to the JCPOA, because the US is no longer a member of the JCPOA, if one of those states say that Iran is in dereliction of the conditions of the JCPOA and sanctions must be resumed,
then automatically they come back.
And that provision runs out in October, but it takes time because of the period of reconciliation.
There has to be a period in which Iran gives its version of events, and then there is a period, and then it comes into effect, and there's 30 days before it comes into effect.
So that's why it's spring.
But the point here is that those sanctions, the SMAP Bank sanctions, are mandatory on every Every UN member state, every member state, not the Security Council, every member state is obliged to enact these sanctions,
all of the sanctions on Iran.
So when you would ask me, and I'm sure many people are asking,"Yeah, but isn't this just..." You know, isn't this Trump's negotiating style?
Hasn't been, you know, we know that he drowsed maximalist demand.
Okay, yes, but, you know, respond to this.
I mean, it was Trump who left the JCPOA.
He wanted a deal with Iran.
He got a deal with Iran.
And then he left it because he wanted to include all these other aspects.
He wanted it to include the end of their missile.
He wanted it to disarmament and the end of all their support, whether it was for the Taliban or the Houthis or Hezbollah or whatever had to be stopped.
And then it was Trump, if you recall, who ordered the assassination of Qasthan Soleimani, who was on a diplomatic trip to Iraq.
He was an official guest of the Iraqi Prime Minister.
And he was assassinated as he got off the airplane in Baghdad.
And Trump has always been very proud of this.
And Qasem Soleimani was sort of almost a son of the Imam, of the Supreme Leader.
He regarded him as a sort of adopted son.
But he was killed.
So when you look at the whole picture going back, and then now we have these seven conditions.
In legally binding description, the question is, I mean, on what point can Iran negotiate?
And, you know, people say, oh, well, maybe Russia is going to do something.
Russia can intervene and find some way.
Look, I mean, it's quite clear that what Trump and the US is saying is saying, as he said in 2018, no enrichment.
Whatsoever. It was a mistake to allow any enrichment under the JCPOA and henceforth no enrichment.
It would be like Libya.
The whole nuclear program had to be dismantled and removed.
But what Trump is demanding is essentially a surrender of sovereignty if they have to get rid of a nuclear program which the United States intelligence community says They don't have, and on which they have not been working for 20 years.
And they also have to get rid of certain long-range missiles when they have an enemy in the neighborhood that wants to destroy them.
And that enemy has long-range missiles from the U.S. and nuclear weapons, which it stole, the technology from which it stole from the U.S. Where are they going with this?
Precisely, we're going to war.
I mean, this is a path that does inevitably lead to war.
And Iran is preparing for a major conflict with the West at this time.
It's preparing for it.
It's getting ready for it.
It's preparing its air defenses, its missile system.
And what we have heard, and I think this is accurate, I've heard that the Israelis have been persuading Trump that it doesn't have to be the whole destruction of the...
If you like the oil and gas infrastructure.
What they're proposing instead is that the first wave of the American attacks would be to destroy the air defenses of Iran.
You'll recall, I think it was April last year, they tried to do that and were unsuccessful because they suddenly found they got target lock-on from Tehran.
On their F-16s when they were still 60 to 100 kilometers away from entering Iranian aspects.
But the first wave will be to do that.
The second wave is indicated would be to decapitate the military, the political, and the religious leadership of Iran.
And the model for that is Hezbollah.
They want to do a Hezbollah, which says they can help with the targeting, and they say the last part of it is it'll be like Syria.
Iran will be just naked and neutered, and we'll walk into it just as we walk in.
And this is just to please Netanyahu, because there is no conceivable Absolutely.
Absolutely. It's to please him.
And the reason why it can't come to an agreement really lies in, you know, something that is not so well understood outside of Israel.
But according to the Torah, And elsewhere, of course, that Israel has the right to greater Israel.
It's theirs.
It's their right.
And anyone who obstructs it or fights against it is termed Amalek.
And the Amalek must be destroyed.
It says so very clearly.
It's an instruction to King Saul from Yahweh to destroy all their women, their children, and everyone.
And there has therefore always been this sort of...
Deep sense amongst many Jews, not all of them in Israel, but that anyone who is, if you like, not willing to recognize it and see Israel and their claim to the greater Israel is valid,
that they are Amalek and they must be killed.
And this is taught in schools, this language about Amalek, and people have it.
Now there are about two to three million.
Israelis who believe in this.
There are secular ones, too.
But Israel is now in a state of almost total decomposition internally.
I think, you know, without the United States to keep it together, it's quite possible Israel would disintegrate.
I mean, the tensions within it towards the prime minister.
He has a criminal inquiry going on.
His office is being investigated.
Receiving money from Ghatar, spying for Ghatar even, not Netanyahu himself, but some of his senior staff within his office are being condemned.
Shortly, I think it's tomorrow, the Supreme Court is going to look at the legality of his dismissal of the head.
I just want to make one point, because I think it's important to make it on this video for an American audience.
It's not like America.
There is no constitution in Israel.
There are basic laws, but there's no constitution.
So when they talk about the Supreme Court, it's not like your Supreme Court that can adjudicate.
According to a constitution, because there isn't one.
So things are very much more opaque.
So the prime minister, his minister for justice and his government say his dismissal of the head of the security service, Shin Bet, is legal.
It's under the law.
Only Netanyahu can appoint him.
Only Netanyahu can dismiss him.
And people who say otherwise is wrong.
So it's quite likely if the Supreme Court said something about what Netanyahu is doing, they will ignore it and say it doesn't apply.
But it's important to understand it's not like America in that sense.
The Supreme Court doesn't have that sort of jurisdiction.
I love you, but you're putting too much faith in the American Constitution.
I mean, the president has enacted a tax.
Calls it a tariff, but it's a tax.
It's cratering the markets and destroying people's savings.
The Congress never voted on it, as the Constitution requires.
Which leads me to my next question.
Netanyahu is on the ropes personally and legally.
Trump's popularity is sinking like a rock in a pond over the tariffs.
How about this?
When all else fails, they bring you to war.
Might this be the time for war with Iran to serve the needs of both Donald Trump to get the American public's mind off the tariffs and Benjamin Netanyahu to get the Israeli mind off of Netanyahu's legal woes?
Yes, because it's all bound up in a dream.
I mean, it's not only, you know, this is a wonderful distraction for both of them, but it's also a dream.
And I think it's a dream that Trump said, personally, because we got it directly from Witkos in his discussion with Tucker Carlson.
And what he said was, at one point, he says, look, you know, Israel has weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon.
You know, I think it's possible they'll normalize with Israel.
And you know, look, that SOB in Syria.
He's our SOP.
He's got rid of Iran.
He's moving towards normalizing with Israel.
And then if that happens, then Saudi Arabia will come in.
And then the only problem is these terrorist groups, that's what he called them, these terrorist proxies of Iran that are causing all of these trouble.
And they have somehow to be existential.
Understood. So two observations.
One, I thought Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and his government have articulated many times since October 7, there'll be no normalization without a Palestinian state.
And two, the United States intelligence community and the intelligence assessment has made it clear that Iran...
Is not working on a nuclear weapon.
Does Mossad give the same assessment to Netanyahu?
I don't know what Mossad gives that assessment, but that assessment would have been agreed with knowledge of what Mossad's position is.
I mean, that's been the same assessment, I think, since 2007.
And clearly it doesn't go completely contrary to what they are told.
By the Israeli intelligence, it would certainly take that into account.
Both those points you say are right.
But I just want to go back and say what Whitcock was saying was that if we get rid of Iran, it's epic instead.
This is everything.
I mean, Israel will be normalized in the whole Middle East.
It will dominate the whole Middle East, not just greater Israel.
It will dominate and we will control the oil and the resources of the Middle East.
He didn't say this, but Whitcoff, I mean, underline that is the same sense.
What does that do to Trump's main preoccupation at that moment?
China. Where does China's oil come from?
A lot of it comes from Iran.
And if you cut that off and you cut off Iraqi oil from China, China is going to be very weak economically in the future.
And that's why they keep talking about these sort of sanctions from hell for China.
This is why I would argue that Defense Secretary Hegseth is naive to be threatening China.
They're not going to allow the United States or Israel, or they're going to resist mightily, I would think, with military force, any efforts by the United States and Israel to destroy Iran's oil refinery.
Lindsey Graham is crazy when he says we should attack that, because not only will it affect China, but you'll be paying $10 a gallon for gas in New York.
Well, that's why I said to you, you'll have to listen to what the Israelis are trying to lead Trump towards.
We don't need to take out their oil and gas.
We can take control of it.
Because what's going to happen is that it's going to be like Syria.
It'll collapse, it'll be a regime change after we've decapitated the Ayatollahs and the IRGC.
It'll be sort of open, lying there naked, and we will walk in, take it over, and we will have a pro-Western government in Iran as a result of regime change.
So it won't affect the price of oil.
It'll actually be lower as a consequence, because China won't
Let me ask you about China before we conclude our time together, Alastair.
How wise or how foolish is it for Hegseth four or five days ago in Japan to be saber rattling at China saying don't even think about Taiwan because we'll die.
Well, it's not feasible.
And also, you know, China can see the writing on the wall.
Look, the whole of the American position towards Taiwan is based on their chip manufacturing.
As you recall, the Taiwan Ship Manufacturing Station.
And the Americans have said before now, if China invades Taiwan, we would destroy that industry, first thing, as a preventative act.
Well, look what's happening.
You know, actually, chip manufacturing is now happening in China.
It's almost caught up on ships and is exceeding the American, the West, and the Taiwanese.
And look what they're doing with AI.
They are ahead of us on AI.
I mean, soon Taiwan, China just has to sit back.
Soon Taiwan will be a small rock in the middle of the sea with 20 million inhabitants and crumbling infrastructure.
And, you know, that's what it will be in the end.
It's only because of its chip capacity that America, it doesn't have oil, it doesn't have gas, but it produced the best microchips.
Now that is no longer the case.
Look what's happening to the American.
It's found the Chinese, again it's the Chinese, the crew, that actually don't need those chips because you can actually do all of the processes.
Can the Chinese Navy blockade Taiwan and starve to death?
Yeah, easily.
They've done practices, about three to my knowledge practices.
Of blockading it.
And it's done.
It's a warning more than something that is going to be complete.
But yes, they can blockade it.
But if, you know, the changes that are taking place in China on chip technology and AI are so quick, leaving the American, you know, heavily invested industry in chip manufacturing,
NVIDIA and all of these things, which...
Hundreds of billions were going to be invested for cloud computing and other aspects.
If those become redundant, what's Taiwan?
As I say, it's just a sort of rocky island in the sea with 20 million inhabitants.
Here's the Secretary General of NATO commenting yesterday on China.
Cut number nine.
Let's not be naive about China.
The build-up of their armed forces is taking place at a pace which is incredible.
And when we talk about Ukraine and bringing Ukraine to a durable end and a peace, a durable peace in the end, let's not forget that Russia is working with North Korea and China and Iran.
And that in the end there is an audience of one watching what comes out of this.
And that is the first secretary of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping.
And he will assess.
When there is a deal on Ukraine, who comes out on top?
Is it the West or is it Russia?
And if it is Russia, he would get his thoughts going about his territorial claims in the inner Pacific.
And we know he has them, take Taiwan, etc.
So there are big risks involved.
And that's why we have to bring Ukraine to a peace which is lasting and that Putin will never try this again.
Is Europe worried about China?
You know, what he just said is absolutely nonsense.
I mean, oh, yes, we have to show so that China doesn't get the impression that, you know, Russia is winning.
Russia is known for at least a year.
More than that.
The war is finished.
The military war is over in Ukraine, and it's been won by Russia.
So there he is saying, oh, no, we mustn't let that.
That's why we've got to support Ukraine.
It's just absolute nonsense to say that.
By the way, just really to support your point, I think on the 7th and 8th, today and tomorrow, I think I've got the dates right, of April this month, there's going to be a meeting of China, Russia and Iran in Moscow.
So, yes, they are interested.
Are they going to come and sort of militarily engage?
I don't know.
I think people overestimate this.
I mean, Russia will be cautious.
Their aim is not to have, if you like, a hot war across the Middle East.
But, you know, when I come back to it and I say, okay, you heard what the demands are of Trump, and those demands have a history.
Going back to 2018 and to his walking out of JCPO, it's not as if he suddenly come and, you know, this is a bit of reality.
He has wanted this from the beginning, and he wants that epic result of the whole Middle East subservient to Israel.
For what reason?
I don't exactly know what the hold is over him by Israel and the community in America, but that's real.
And so...
I think, you know, what would Russia say to Iran to do?
Oh yes, you know, submit to all these demands.
Don't forget the First World War started with 10 similar sort of demands from Austria-Hungaria to Serbia.
One of them was not met.
Nine were met completely and they immediately declared war on Serbia.
And we know what happened.
Alistair, thank you very much, my dear friend.
A broad array of topics, deeply appreciated.
We'll look forward to seeing you next week.
All the best.
Thank you very much.
Of course.
Not only a broad array of topics, but a deep and brilliant analysis from our Monday morning quarterback.
Coming up later today at 10 in the morning, Ray McGovern at 11.30 in the morning.
Larry Johnson at 3 o'clock this afternoon.
Scott Ritter.
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