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Feb. 14, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
35:34
INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern : Weekly Wrap
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Friday, February 14th, 2025.
Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern are here for the Intelligence Community Roundtable, the end of the day, the end of the week.
Our wrap from their eyes and their perspective and mine on what happened in the past week.
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Gentlemen, welcome here.
Always a pleasure.
Happy time for us on Friday afternoon, and thank you for the double duty that you do with this show.
There's much to talk about with respect to Russia and Ukraine, Pete Hegseth and Vice President Vance, but just a few questions about Israel before we do.
Larry, is anybody on the planet?
Any head of state or serious diplomat or serious academic or anybody outside of Trump's immediate circle taking the we're going to buy and own Gaza offer seriously?
I don't think it's so much taking it seriously as reacting to it.
Apparently Egypt has succeeded in rallying several members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and they're going to come forward with a plan.
That is both going to finance the rebuilding of Gaza and keeping the Palestinians in there.
And, you know, there's some that have opined that maybe that was Trump's intention all along, to put out this, quote, plan that wasn't really a plan.
There was no money attached to it, no personnel attached to implement it.
But to roll that hand grenade out there forced this reaction, which they're getting.
And if, you know, if the OIC comes in, And when they say, okay, we're going to take it over, we're going to rebuild it, Trump may just say, okay, fine, you know, there's a solution.
What's clear is that it looked pretty dark two days ago, that at noon tomorrow the war was going to be back on.
Even Israel, despite Netanyahu's big boasts, have backed off, and they're going forward with the scheduled hostage releases according to the ceasefire plan.
Ray, the president had his own demand.
For a while, we thought he was trying to sabotage his own ceasefire plan when he condemned the idea of releasing hostages in dribs and drabs.
I'm paraphrasing him.
One and two and three and four and one, even though that's the plan that his emissary, Mr. Whitcoff, wrote.
And then he said, I want all the hostages released.
Yeah, he overstated his high noon warning.
In other words, the Israelis didn't even repeat that part of it.
And as long as the...
The hostages under the phase one agreement continue to be released, then there was just puffing smoke on the part of Trump's part.
Now, what I like to go back to here is the $8 billion that the Trump administration has asked Congress for to feed Netanyahu and his folks.
Now, I've been making a big part of that.
I guess my website master gave a title to that version on my website, and he said, 2 billion ways to lose all your leverage.
Not 2 billion, but 8 billion.
And that's the point here.
Now, to the degree Trump He pumps all this stuff into Netanyahu.
He doesn't control what Netanyahu does.
And he'll be led by Netanyahu, I'm convinced, even if Netanyahu chooses to violate this agreement, which I'm sure he is.
So, you know, it's a little academic to worry about what Trump thinks.
He's given the game away with $8 billion.
Larry McGregor and Ritter.
Maintain that Trump is delivering 1,800 2,000-pound bombs to Netanyahu.
Is not the Trump-Gaza policy just an extension and continuation of the Biden-Gaza policy?
We'll see.
So far those bombs haven't been dropped.
And as long as those bombs aren't dropping...
And the ceasefire remains in place.
Because you can make a case that the reason they're giving the bombs is to entice them to stay with the ceasefire.
But what are you going to do with 1,800 2,000 pound bombs besides turn the place into Dresden?
Well, that's what it would do if they come back to that.
But again, we've already seen that with all their massive bombing of the Gaza Strip, they've turned it into complete rubble.
It didn't defeat Hamas.
And it's not good to defeat Hamas.
And I think, you know, despite the bombast, because actually Netanyahu did follow up after Trump said it, you know, noon on Saturday.
Netanyahu, he said that.
Trump said all the hostages.
Netanyahu was less than clear.
You know, initially he said all, but then he backed off.
Okay. Netanyahu changed.
Now, the other thing in this power dynamic, Is Trump, I would actually argue, AIPAC and Netanyahu don't have the power over Trump that they may have before the election, because Trump ain't running again.
They can't threaten, oh, we're not going to vote for you next time.
Well, there's not going to be a next time.
So I think that, you know, Trump...
What can the donor class do to Trump?
Suppose, you know, he's got a short fuse.
Suppose he tells Netanyahu to go take a hike.
What can Mrs. Adelson and her buddies possibly do to him?
Yeah, well, they can pull some money, but he's a billionaire.
He doesn't need their money.
And so my point is that their potential leverage now is limited.
And I'm counting more on Donald Trump's vanity that he wants to be seen as a great peace guy as opposed to the guy that's burned up a bunch of babies.
Ray, before you comment on this, I have to play this for you.
Obviously, I'm not a fan.
This population in Palestine...
It's hostile.
It's uneducated.
It's even more radicalized than they were at the beginning of this.
I mean, now they have no homes at all.
They're even more hateful of the Israelis.
And their birth rate is explosive.
The average Palestinian woman has five and a half babies.
The average Israeli woman has only two and a half babies.
So, demographically, they're a threat.
Not to mention the national security threat.
There is no way you can have these two peoples living side by side.
Professor McGovern, what would you say to that wimp?
Well, Jesse, one thing is that obviously Palestinian men are much more virile and strong than Israelis.
That's a Larry Johnson line!
Hey, you stole that from me!
I'm suing!
I'm suing!
No, I made that all by myself.
Anyhow, you know...
It's open.
It's laying bare all this incredible prejudice.
Let's call it what it is.
It's racism.
Most of the Palestinians don't look anything like us.
Most Israelis do.
What the Israelis do doesn't really matter to Donald Trump or his minions, and that's called sociopath.
People who are willing to tolerate or to encourage or to enable or to arm genocide do not blanch before the word.
Let's transfer over to Russia and Ukraine because of dramatic events.
To me, the most important of which were two statements by also somebody I worked with for a number of years who is now The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.
Chris, do you have the Hegseth statements?
Okay, run them back to back, please.
Believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.
Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.
If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5. There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact.
To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine.
We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield.
We want, like you, Larry, how profound were those statements compared to what we heard from his predecessor,
from Tony Blinken and from Joe Biden for four years?
A Baerbach would say it was a 360.
Look, the coordination process on this, think about this.
Pete Hegseth didn't sit down and write that out on his own.
No, of course not.
And that wasn't written just by some staff of his.
Whoever drafted that speech had to coordinate it.
And when I say coordinate it, they shared it with State Department.
They shared it with the CIA.
They shared it with the Defense Intelligence Agency.
And they shared it.
It was shared.
With the National Security Council, if not directed.
Maybe it was the National Security Council that oversaw the drafting.
But the point was, this was a unified draft.
Everybody was on board.
And the message is very clear.
This was the equivalent of Trump saying to Ukraine and Europe, you're fired.
The United States, we're not funding the war.
If the Europeans want to fund it...
Good luck, folks.
Go ahead and do it.
But if you do it, it's not going to be done under the auspices of NATO.
No NATO for Ukraine.
They don't get to go there.
And if you're going to provide any kind of further aid to Ukraine, it's coming out of your pocket, not ours, because Ukraine's going to pay for it if they get it from us.
Otherwise, we're not giving them a cent.
The Europeans were in shock.
Absolute shock.
Ray, this has got to be one of the most dramatic turnarounds in American foreign policy.
In the modern era.
John Bolton, of course, not somebody that agrees with us on anything, is saying Putin is delighted.
He's got the two principal points that he wants.
No return to 2014 borders and no NATO in Ukraine.
That is, to quote Pete Hegseth, realistic.
Well, those are realistic factors here.
And I agree.
This is earth shattering.
If that were not enough, today, C.D. Vance made an even more pointed criticism of what's going on in Europe.
It had to do with open discourse.
It had to do with marginalizing parties.
As a matter of fact, they criticized the organizers of the Munich Security Conference for keeping out Some of the German parties that are running in the election 10 days from now.
So this is really taking on the Germans as well as taking on NATO and all the others that have been acting as the Germans have.
Now, the Germans have taken out their big guns.
Frank Holte Steinmeier, president of Germany, got up in a one-minute speech.
All I have is the German here, but I'll translate for you.
Look, the Americans have a different idea of what the world is like now.
They have no consideration for the established rules.
This is the president of Germany just after J.D. Vance talked.
No respect for the established rules, and we just have to accept this and deal with it.
Now, I'm convinced.
That the international community can't let this dominate the world situation here.
This is not something we can accept.
And as a Democrat, says Steinmeier, I have a great worry, great, great worry that this elite, this entrepreneurial elite and the power and the means that they use.
That they will be a big, big factor that we'll have to deal with.
So I'm very, very concerned.
And let's see, the complete disregard of institutions and norms of our democracy.
Well, we can't let that go.
I have great worry or concern about this.
This is the president of Germany, okay?
This, my friends, is unprecedented, okay?
This hasn't happened since World War II, and that's saying something.
And I've consulted some of my friends in Germany already about this, some wise folks who know which end is up, and they agree.
They can't predict how this will affect the German election, but it's a new realm because the Germans have picked up the challenge and are challenging the United States and the U.S. Of course, as I said, Germans or Europeans don't matter as much as it did before.
NATO is falling apart, and so too the German-U.S.
relationship that has obtained since World War II.
Larry, some of what the Vice President said struck me as though he hadn't spoken to Hegseth or whoever the people were that wrote Hegseth's speech.
When he said, if necessary, we'll increase the sanctions and even consider military action to bring Vladimir to the negotiating table.
What on earth did he have in mind with either statement?
The bottom Trump sanctions, and you can only call them that because Trump has kept them on, sanction everything except uranium, which we need for our...
And military action against Russia?
What did he mean?
Well, on that point, Vance doesn't know what he's talking about.
Number one, the Western sanctions have made the Russian economy stronger.
It recorded 4.1% growth in 2024, confirmed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, not exactly, toadies of Putin.
They came in at 3.8%, 3.9%.
And usually that's going to get upgraded.
It'll probably turn out to have been a 4.6% growth in 2024.
Russia is producing everything domestically.
They've made it clear they don't need anything from overseas.
What happened in the combination between Hexeth and Vance's speech today was the equivalent of one spouse coming down to the breakfast table after 70 years of marriage and announcing...
I'm running off with the neighbor.
I'm divorcing you.
It is that level of shock that the Europeans are experiencing.
And Vance didn't pull any punches with him on saying, hey, you know, you are persecuting people for expressing legitimate political views that just oppose what your majority wants.
You interfered with an election in Romania.
When he got done speaking, It was the equivalent of a comedian that showed up at a funeral for plane crash victims and tried to tell a plane crash story.
It didn't go over well.
What do you think it meant with the threat of military action against Russia, which could not have gone over well in the Kremlin after they were rejoicing at what Hegseth had said two days earlier?
Well, that wasn't J.D. Vance.
He didn't say anything about that.
Yes, he did.
He threatened economic sanctions and military action to get Putin to the negotiating table.
Today? Yeah, he said that within the last 24 hours.
It was either yesterday or the day before.
It was not today.
It was like two different Vances.
Yeah. Okay.
Well, what I know is that Vance cut ties with West Germany today, and he did it gratuitously.
As Larry said, you know, Romania, here's an example.
They had an election.
And people come in and they dispute the election and they don't respect the election.
What's that?
Is that democracy?
Now, of course, we know what happened in Romania.
And we know that Vance knows what happened in Romania.
So these were all gratuitous insults.
And I think...
The Western Europeans are really shocked, as Larry said, and they're going to have to deal with it.
As the president of Germany said, this is a different United States.
They have a different vision, and we can't change it.
We've got to deal with it.
Well, we'll see how they deal with it.
But the U.S. is out of Europe, and NATO is pretty much finished, in my view.
Here's how different we are today.
After three weeks of the Trump presidency, from the four years of Joe Biden, Chris has put together a montage of Tony Blinken, Mark Milley,
Joe Biden, all saying the same thing, which reality has rejected.
Chris? Putin's war of conquest is failing.
The answer is Putin's already lost the war.
Putin has already lost.
Russia's military has lost half its territory once occupied.
Putin has already lost.
Putin has already lost this war.
And that is Russia has already lost this war.
In short, Russia has lost.
It's worth fighting for for as long as it takes.
And that's how long we're going to be with you, Mr. President, for as long as it takes.
They've lost strategically.
Operationally and tactically.
The American people can be and should be incredibly proud of the part they played in supporting Ukraine's success.
We'll continue to supply Ukraine with critical weapons and equipment as long as we can.
Larry, these were the people that governed us for four years.
Yeah. You know, there's the old expression that they couldn't find their rear end if you take their hands to it.
Yeah. Would we still be looking for it?
This was, I don't know, this is illustrative.
The failure to do any kind of objective analysis.
You know, I didn't enter this with preconceived notions that say, oh, I play for Team Russia, therefore I'm only going to look at this as through the Russian lens and, you know, cheer them on.
No, it's just simple analysis.
You've got to step back and look at.
Who's got the most soldiers?
Who's got the most equipment?
Who's got the most supplies?
Who's got the ability to sustain operations?
Who's got control of the...
I mean, they just start ticking it off.
And how these people who are...
They've got college educations.
They've got years of experience in government.
Could be so incredibly dishonest or stupid.
I mean, it's one or the other.
And so...
There's no room for it.
But look, Putin controls the situation because he's winning.
Donald Trump does not have any leverage over Vladimir Putin.
And I'm going to make a bold prediction that come May 9th in Moscow, we'll see Donald Trump sitting on top of Lenin's tomb with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
Reviewing a parade to commemorate the end of World War II, the 80th anniversary.
Wow. Do you think, Ray, that when Putin and Trump meet in Saudi Arabia that Zelensky will be there?
I don't think so.
The Russians are quite accurate in their assertion that he is not the legitimate head of state of Ukraine, and so would have no place at the negotiating table.
Sure. Let's go back to the famous dictum of Blinken, no deal about Ukraine without Ukraine.
Well, of course, we created the Ukrainian regime, so there's two against one right there, okay?
That's over.
It's clear that Trump has been talking to Putin.
Now, what does that mean?
That means that if Trump is listening, Putin has a whole list of agreements where he's been had.
He's been had by the likes of Steinmeier and the likes of Merkel and Hollande of France.
All these agreements made and then broken by the US.
I think that when Trump said about three weeks ago, I can understand how the Russians wouldn't want a country armed to the teeth by NATO right on its border like Ukraine's.
You know, I understand that.
Well, that broke it for me.
That's 80% of the problem.
And something's going to be worked out now.
And I'm sure that Putin, however gingerly, has told Trump, look, by the way, you know, we have the high cards here.
Got to realize that we can go all the way to the Dnieper real quick.
And we don't want to.
We want to bargain.
Let's see what kind of deal we can work out where you can be let down more gently than otherwise would be the case.
Larry, if you're correct, and I think you are, about President Xi joining them, this could be another Yalta.
They could handshake on big-picture relationships that could dramatically change the world.
I mean, for example, just a few minutes ago, Trump said, How about we slow down, stop, and reduce nuclear weapons?
Quote, there is no reason for us to be building brand new nuclear weapons.
We already have so many you can destroy the world 50, 100 times over.
This is a dramatic and radical statement from a president of the United States, Larry Johnson.
Well, it's ironic that it's coming from Trump, who abrogated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement back in 2018.
You're right.
I get too excited.
You are right.
But he did that at the behest or under pressure from Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.
Now, with those two gentlemen no longer around and no longer holding clearances, Trump may be able to go back to his own instincts.
However, let's note that Russia's got clear.
Clear advantages on every front.
They've got decisive advantage on anti-ballistic missile defenses.
They've got decisive advantage with the Oreshnik intermediate nuclear forces that they have that are readily deployable.
The United States doesn't have anything comparable.
They've got decisive advantage with hypersonic missiles.
So, you know, the United States is actually coming in to ask Russia to disarm, to make itself equivalent to the United States' weakness.
And I think the Russians are going to be very hesitant to jump onto that because of the history of the U.S. betrayal of the Russian people and of the Russian government, not once, but time after time.
And, you know, I think Putin's going to start quoting Ronald Reagan.
Trust but verify.
Ray, before we go, I just want to switch gears a little bit.
Have you detected from your colleagues the reaction in the intelligence community, A, to the buyouts Trump has offered of CIA agents, and B, to the swearing-in of Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence?
What is the Deep State saying and thinking and doing about that?
The answer is...
Fear and trembling.
You know, they're going to go in there.
My idea is that the folks that will be cleaning house will go ask these down to the division level.
Chief of the Russian division.
What evidence did you tell the president existed to say that Russia wants to go to Poland?
And do you still believe that?
Well, no.
Well, you're fired.
Okay? These guys have been windsocks.
And, you know, you can say, well, they'll blow with the wind here.
But that's not the kind of people you wanted there.
You want a clean house.
And you may know, Judge, that we have offered our services.
That is Veteran Intelligence.
Oh, I know you have.
You copy me on all those emails.
I hope she reaches out to you, you guys.
Or partially responsible for her confirmation, for God's sakes.
Well, we hope so.
In other words, for once we think that we might have a hearing, if only because everyone else has been totally discredited.
The Russian experts that said what Putin really wanted was to tell the US to get out of West Europe and don't let the door hit your backside on the way out.
What was her name?
Fiona Hill, okay?
Right, right.
So those people should be, well, they'll be hiding in their cubbyholes at Brookings, no doubt, but at least they'll not have the ear of people making decisions, and Tulsi Gabbard will be able to ensure that.
Larry, do you get the same feeling that the deep state is trembling?
Yes. Listen, they're getting savaged across the board.
I've got first-hand information that already with respect to Ukraine, for example, $49 billion that have been stolen by Ukrainian officials has been traced to specific bank accounts in the Caribbean.
I know the specific islands and such, but I'm not going to get into that.
So that's underway.
This lash-up that was between USAID, National Endowment for Democracy, CIA, it's coming apart at the seams.
It's being exposed in a major way.
And what Tulsi's going to bring to this, and I've encouraged her indirectly through someone that has direct access to her, that hopefully she went down and delivered the presidential daily brief today, and she'll deliver it tomorrow.
She'll deliver it every day that there's a PDB to be delivered.
She put herself in front of Trump and making sure that the right message is being...
Not one that's politically correct, but one that's accurate.
One that's accurate and contains valid information without any political spin.
That's her job.
Ray, can you even imagine that happening?
Well, sure.
Actually, the procedure that I was following, where we would...
Senior analysts would be on their own one-on-one during the first Reagan term.
One-on-one with the president?
One-on-one with the president's senior advisors.
Very rarely did we see the president because he liked to sleep in.
Oh, right.
Talking about Reagan.
Yeah, you talk to Bush and you talk to Schulz and Weinberger and various national security advisors and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
And then when you're finished with them, they'll come to me at 1130.
And I'll have my coffee by then, and I'll try to find out what I need to know.
So that was the way it worked with Reagan, but it was one-on-one, nobody looking over our shoulder, not the director, not anybody else.
Now, with George Tenet, he tried to curry favor with George W. Bush, so he hitched a ride down with a briefer, and the politicization set in big time.
Tulsi's not going to politicize things.
I think Larry is exactly right.
What she needs to do is go down there personally, bring a couple of specialists with her, depending on what the burning issues of the day are.
But that's a wonderful way to not only develop rapport with the president, but to show that you know which end is up, unlike your predecessors.
One other suggestion I would have is that Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel.
As soon as he's confirmed completely, they ought to get together, figure out how to tackle this thing, because they are lonely birds against this deep state.
The first thing I would do is to make sure that they have people tasting their food before they have dinner.
Hey, Judge, let me just add one other thing that comes in on the international front.
Donald Trump is going to...
Not go out of his way to see the downfall of the Brits.
Remember, it was British intelligence working with CIA intelligence starting in the summer of 2015 that was targeting Donald Trump.
It was British intelligence, MI6, that set up and targeted George Papadopoulos as a way to target Trump.
It was GCHQ.
GCHQ, exactly.
It was Christopher Steele.
Former MI6 officer.
And then Keir Starmer, proving what a dummy he is, decided it would be a good idea to send Labor Party activists to campaign on behalf of Kamala Harris.
So I guarantee you, when Trump made that decision last week to say, okay, hey, Brits, you take charge now of this defense group.
You're in charge of rounding up all the aid.
He wasn't doing it as a favor.
He's going to make them wear the stink on this.
Gentlemen, a great conversation.
A captivating, fascinating week and a wonderful end to it.
Thank you for your time.
Thank you for your insight.
We'll see you Monday morning.
We'll be there.
Ray at 10, Larry at 1130, preceded by the great Alistair Crook at 8 in the morning.
Have a great weekend, gentlemen.
Thank you.
You too, Judge.
Thank you.
And of course, we will have a regular schedule for you on Monday.
Alistair Crook at 8, Ray McGovern at 10, Larry Johnson at 11.30, and probably one of our major hitters in the afternoon.
Have a great weekend.
Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.
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