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Jan. 30, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
24:46
Prof. John Mearsheimer : Should Trump Trust Netanyahu?
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Thursday, January 30th, 2025.
Professor John Mearsheimer joins us now.
Professor Mearsheimer, always a pleasure.
Thank you very much for your time.
I have a lot to talk to you about.
I want to concentrate somewhat on what we can expect next week from Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington and whether he's coming trying to talk.
President Trump into waging war on Iran and how you think all of that is going to go.
But before that, to Ukraine.
Do we know if the Biden pipeline of cash and military equipment and ammunition is still flowing?
Well, all the available evidence in the public record Do they have other sources for that cash?
And that's just what it is.
It's cash.
It's a transfer into a bank account.
Do they have other sources in Europe or elsewhere?
Well, not at the moment.
The question is, can they find other sources if they get desperate enough?
And I guess the answer is they can go to European countries and those European countries can ante up as they see fit.
I would guess they would do that.
Especially since it would be a temporary fix.
But this doesn't solve the long-term issue of what the Trump administration is going to do with Ukraine with regard not simply to this economic assistance, but with regard to military assistance.
He said he would stop the war in 24 hours, and you and other colleagues of ours on this show have said the same thing.
The military pipeline is still...
Flowy. He could turn that off with a phone call or with one of his famous signatures on an executive order.
And he hasn't done so, Professor Mearsheimer.
I realize he's only been on the job for 10 days, but has there been any material change in foreign policy with respect to Ukraine?
No. It's actually quite...
Shocking in the sense that after he was elected and in the months before he moved into the White House, he and his assistants had plenty of time to figure out what they were going to do, and you would have expected them to hit the ground running.
But that's not happened at all.
And in fact, I would argue that the reason, the likely reason, that the arms are continuing to flow is that the administration is still trying to figure out what to do.
I think they don't know what to do here.
You know, it depends on to whom they listen.
If he listens to Sebastian Gorka, Gorka wants to increase the level of supplies.
If he listens to Marco Rubio, it's time to turn the spigot off.
If he listens to Mike Walsh, he wants to use the threat of more weapons to bring President Putin to the negotiating table.
I mean, do they understand Vladimir Putin?
I think they do to some extent.
I think they do understand that Putin is driving a very hard bargain and will take nothing short of that.
And I think they also understand that the Russians are doing very well on the battlefield.
Many of Trump's advisors understand that.
And that puts them in a real pickle.
They don't know what to do because they're...
Their instinct is to always be tough with the Russians, to slap them around, to believe that the United States has all this coercive leverage.
But there's just so much evidence now that says that that's not the case.
And we have to go to a more conciliatory approach.
And these people just find it almost impossible to do that.
So I think what's happening here is they're basically thrashing around.
What do you think the Kremlin thinks Of Trump's insults, like the Russians have lost a million men in the war.
Putin is ruining Russia.
I'm going to pose, I'm going to slap more sanctions on Russia.
I mean, that is really, truly absurd.
Because everything has been sanctioned except what we need and can't get from another source.
And that is nuclear material for many of our power plants.
He must not know that.
What do you think the Kremlin thinks when he makes these wild statements?
I think the Kremlin thinks the same thing that the judge thinks, the same thing that John thinks, and that is that the foreign policy elites in this country are basically nuts.
Wow. I mean, if he wants to change...
The foreign policy culture of the State Department, from neocon to whatever he wants to call it, America first, he doesn't want to call it isolationist, whatever he wants to call it.
Recognizing our hegemony, recognizing Russia's hegemony, recognizing China's hegemony.
That's the way John Mearsheimer would call it.
What does he have to do?
Does he have to change the thinking of the generations of people that are there?
Well, he has to carefully pick people who basically agree with his agenda, and he has to get them to help him shape the discourse and shape the policy.
And he's not done a very good job in that regard.
I mean, we don't want to be too critical at this point in time, simply because he's only been in office for a short period of time.
Agree. Give him a little bit of running room here before you really can make a firm...
Assessment or a clear assessment of what he's up to.
But he has to get the right people in place and they have to come up with coherent policies.
And the problem is that there's no evidence they're doing that.
That gets back to your previous question about what the Kremlin is thinking.
If you just look out at what the Trump administration has done so far, and indeed what they did before he took office.
On January 20th, it's not a very promising picture.
Are Ukrainian troops, as far as we know, still firing American and British missiles into Russia?
No, I think at this point in time, they're using very few Atakums, which are the key American missiles that were causing all the trouble.
We didn't give them that many Atakums, and the truth is the Atakums were not very effective.
What the Ukrainians are now using are large numbers of drones to attack the Russians, and they're giving the Russians some problems with all these drone attacks, but it's not ATACMS.
Do the Russians believe that the war is effectively over?
Dmitry Symes, I was a guest on The Great Game, you know that show, said yes.
Gilbert Doctorow.
Well, I think the Kremlin believes that they're going to win the war, provided they don't take their eye off the ball,
and they continue to execute the war in smart ways.
It's not over yet, and it would be foolish, in my opinion.
For the Russians to get overconfident before the fat lady sinks.
So I think the Russians are very confident, but I don't think they're going to rejoice until the shooting stops and they have a victory.
Now, Putin has said he won't negotiate with Zelensky because Zelensky is not the lawful leader of the country, or they get that.
Zelensky says he's now willing to talk to Putin.
What is there to negotiate?
Could you imagine Zelensky agreeing that Ukraine will be neutral and not a member of NATO forever and ever and ever?
And also recognize Russian annexation of the four oblasts plus Crimea.
Correct. And to make sure that the Ukrainian military...
Is especially weak in the future so that it can never threaten Russia.
Professor Mearsheimer, can he expect to make that agreement and stay alive?
I don't think so.
I don't think so.
I don't think he wants to make the agreement anyway.
I think you're going to have to get somebody else in there to make that agreement that I'm not sure that person will stay alive either.
This is all part of the trouble we're in.
This would be, I guess, up to the United States to replace Zelensky, either forcefully or by bribing him or saying, you know, your time is up, go to Miami, go to Paris, go to wherever his homes are, and then replace him with someone else who has some modicum of respect amongst the governmental elites in Kyiv.
Is that feasible?
I don't think so.
I think you want to be careful here.
You're talking like you're heavily into social engineering, and you think that we can go into countries and manipulate their politics in ways that suit our interests.
As we've found out on countless occasions over time, it's very difficult to do that.
And I don't think we're in a good position for us to choose.
Who should be running Ukraine?
And I think what you need is somebody from inside Ukraine who has a real legitimacy to get in power and then hopefully be able to work with the United States and the Westmore generally.
But isn't the culture of the State Department, and I condemn this culture, as you know, we can decide what's best for another country and we'll decide if it's General Zeluzny instead of President Zelensky?
Well, it has been the culture, not just of the State Department, but of the foreign policy establishment, both Republicans and Democrats, the Defense Department, the CIA, and so forth and so on.
I mean, hopefully Trump can change that, and the fact that things are going south so rapidly in Ukraine will contribute to Trump's success on this front.
But I think it is going to take a bit of time.
to turn this aircraft carrier around in the water.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House.
I don't know if there's going to be another crazy speech before a joint session of Congress where he gets 58 standing ovations in an hour, but he is scheduled to visit the White House next week.
What does he want?
I think there are two possible issues.
One is Iran and the other is Gaza.
And I think that what he will concentrate on talking to Trump about is Gaza.
The Israelis have lost in Gaza.
They have not defeated Hamas.
And they have actually, with a ceasefire, agreed to evacuate Gaza.
So the question is, what do the Israelis do moving forward?
And what the Israelis want to do is they want to continue to pursue the goal of ethically cleansing Gaza.
And of course, it appears that Donald Trump is going to help them in this regard, because Trump has made it clear that he would like to empty out Gaza and push the Palestinians into Jordan and into Egypt.
And this is music.
To Netanyahu's ears.
This is what he's going to try to do now.
Once again, Gaza is becoming an open-air prison.
It's important to understand that.
The Israelis are getting out, and it's an open-air prison again.
And the question is, what do the Israelis do this time with the open-air prison?
And they still want to cleanse it.
And they're going to need help from the Americans to cleanse it.
Because there's no question that Gaza is now unlivable.
From the Israeli point of view, they have to keep it unlivable and, if anything, make the situation worse so that the Palestinians leave.
And they need Trump's help in that regard.
Do you think that Trump shares Joe Biden's contempt for the freedom, the personal liberty of the Palestinian peoples?
I think that there's not much difference between Trump and Biden on this issue.
This is reprehensible that it's going to be more of the same.
Is Trump going to be known as Genocide Donald?
There is a very good chance of that.
I mean, I think that what Trump has said about the Palestinians up to now, to steal your word, is reprehensible.
The idea that he's talking about ethnically cleansing, cleaning out Gaza after all that's happened.
Historically, as well as since October 7th, is really disgraceful.
And it just shows you the levels that we have sunk to as a country.
Because, again, it's not just Trump.
It's Biden as well, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, all these people, right?
They've lost their moral bearings.
I want to get back to Netanyahu and Iran.
But before we do, I want to play a clip for you, Professor Mir Sharma.
I don't know if you know this man or know of him, Daniel Levy, former Israeli negotiator, even though he's an Israeli, speaks with a British accent.
Yeah, I actually know him.
I had lunch with him in London in late November.
Oh, terrific.
You'll love this clip.
Watch this.
Sonya, cut number one.
One cannot underestimate the impact on the Israeli public psyche of the release.
The initial three who were released.
And, of course, everyone, therefore, saw those images.
They've been told Al-Qassam defeated.
They've been told the public has turned against them.
They've been told so many things.
And then they saw those images.
An occupying army, armed and aided by the most powerful military in the world, the US.
A nuclear armed state, Israel.
In a struggle between that and a resistance movement, we saw a very powerful display, and Israelis saw that.
We're being told by Israeli analysts, talking heads, political leaders and their backers in the West that the next phase has to be to move forward.
We have to have the demilitarization of...
The reality is the most significant force in Gaza by a long stretch is Hamas.
Al-Qassam emerges from this with a very strong narrative.
Israel's narrative doesn't look so good at all.
Agreed, Professor Meir Sharma, with your lunch companion?
Yes, exactly.
I mean, what Daniel is telling you is that the Israelis failed in Gaza.
I mean, people should let this sink in.
The Israelis failed in Gaza.
Hamas won.
Hamas is alive and well.
Israel's goal was to decisively defeat Hamas.
And they failed.
And this is why the question that the Israeli government now faces is what to do next.
And that's why I said I think that when Netanyahu comes to Washington next week, what he will do is talk to Trump about how they can deal with the Hamas problem or the Gaza problem.
And as I said, I think they will continue to pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing, acting as a tag team.
Is it scurrilous for us to conclude that Trump wants the Palestinians out of Gaza so his son-in-law can redevelop their real estate?
It certainly does seem like that argument makes sense.
And it's thoroughly depressing to think that we can even talk about that as a possibility.
Again, it just shows you how low we have sunk as a country.
Yeah. Netanyahu in Iran, do you think he's going to ask Trump to agree on war?
No, I think, again, that Gaza will be the big issue.
I think the issue of Iran will come up for sure, but I don't see the timing being right for the Israelis to push us hard on that one.
I also think that...
Netanyahu is smart enough to understand that that will be a hard sell with Trump.
Trump, for all his flaws, which we were just talking about, is not a warmonger.
He does not want a war against Iran.
And it will take...
You know, a certain set of events and a lot of pressure from the Israelis and a lot of pressure from his advisors to get him to go to war against Iran.
And now is not the time.
I think what he's interested in doing, I'm talking here about Trump, is putting maximum economic pressure on the Iranians and squeezing them super hard.
Sort of doing to Iran what we did to Syria and getting the Iranians to make Can he avoid Netanyahu and the donor class?
Can he go toe-to-toe with them, bearing in mind his $100 million debt to Mrs. Adelson?
To the donor class.
And if Trump in any meaningful way clashes with the Israeli government, whether Netanyahu is in charge or someone else, the donor class will move in and they'll make sure that he changes his policy and supports Israel unconditionally.
This is the way we operate.
But again, I think the focus now is going to be on Gaza.
And I don't see...
Netanyahu and Trump being at odds on Gaza.
I wish they were going to be at odds on Gaza.
I wish that Trump was going to take a moral and strategically smart approach to this problem, but I don't think that's going to happen.
You don't think that...
General al-Sisi in Egypt or King Abdullah in Jordan are going to each accept three-quarters of a million Palestinians, do you?
That's what the president suggested two days ago.
No, I don't think so.
But you do want to understand that we have significant economic leverage over both of those countries.
We have significant economic leverage.
The counter-argument to that is that the public in both of those countries, Jordan and Egypt, Would rise up mightily if Sisi and...
I would think those governments would be overthrown, don't you?
I think there's a reasonably good chance.
But let's assume that we're wrong, okay?
Let's assume that the Egyptian and Jordanian governments agree, and they suffer some blowback, but not that much.
You still have a huge obstacle, which is the Palestinians themselves.
You want to remember that for the past 14 months...
The Israelis have been executing a genocide in Israel, and the ultimate objective of that genocide was to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza.
They failed.
The Palestinians are still there.
They're streaming north.
They're streaming back to their homes, and they have made it unequivocally clear they ain't leaving.
So even if the Egyptians and the Jordanians agreed to take them, You've got to get them out.
And how are we going to get them out?
They'll never agree to leave their own land.
Okay, so where does that leave you then?
What would you tell President Trump if he called you up and said, John, give me some advice as to how to deal with this character Netanyahu?
Well, I think that he should get tough with Netanyahu.
I think the problem in this country is nobody has any backbone when it comes to dealing with Israel or dealing with the lobby.
They're all like a bunch of sheep.
This is what I would say about the Harvard president.
The Harvard president should have stood on the ramparts and said that, you know, I am going to protect freedom of speech on university campuses, and in no way am I going to cave to the donor class and to Israel.
But he didn't do that.
And the same thing has been true with all presidents up to this point.
And the question is, do you think that Trump is going to stand up?
Well, even Donald Trump, who fancies himself as a strong man, will cave to the donor class led by the Mossad asset,
Miriam Adelson.
A guy who does a brilliant job of portraying himself as a tough guy.
But he's basically a bully.
I come from New York City.
I grew up on New York City playgrounds as a young kid.
I can tell those kind of people a mile away.
They're really tough when they're dealing with weaker people.
If he's slapping the Colombian president or Justin Trudeau around, he's at his best as a bully.
But when he meets real resistance, like all bullies, he just backs right off.
The challenge is the lobby.
He will meet real resistance.
And let's just see how tough he is.
I mean, I hope I'm wrong.
I hope he's the first president to really stand up to the lobby.
But I would not bet a lot of money on that.
Professor John Mearsheimer, a pleasure, my dear friend.
Your candor and knowledge are so refreshing and so much appreciated.
By all of us that participate in this program and watch you every week.
I hope you'll come back again next week.
Of course.
Thank you, John.
Pleasure. All the best.
Same to you, Judge.
Thank you.
And coming up at 4 o'clock Eastern, midnight in Moscow, who else would be up at that hour?
Pepe Escobar, Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.
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