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Nov. 14, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
31:34
LtCOL. Tony Shaffer : How to End the Ukraine War
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Thursday, November 14, 2024.
My dear friend, Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer joins us now.
Tony, welcome here.
Congratulations to you, Tony, on your electoral victory, your first time in elective politics, and you win by two to one.
So very happy for you and all the best in your new governmentalist When do you get sworn in?
Hey, Judge, I don't know if you can hear me.
I can't hear you right now.
Something happened right after the thing went off.
So if you could have Chris recalibrate.
I'm not getting anything right now.
All right.
Are you hearing me now, Tony?
No.
Okay.
All right, we're going to...
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Tony, are you back with us?
Yeah, I can hear it.
Can you hear me?
Okay, good.
So what you weren't able to hear me say was my sincere personal and professional congratulations to you on your victory in the polls on Tuesday or two Tuesdays ago.
And the audience needs to know that you won by a 2-1 margin.
Donald Trump should have had it so good.
I actually beat his margin here in the county by 5 points.
He won by 60%.
I won by 65%.
So it was good.
All right.
Happy for you, Tony.
I hope you'll still be able.
Absolutely.
Nothing's going to change.
Basically, it's a part-time job that permits me to do what I want to do.
Thank you.
Good.
Glad to hear it.
I will talk to you in a few minutes about the Hegseth and Gates nomination, particularly Hegseth in your field.
But before we get there, I want to ask you some questions about Ukraine, because there's been such a focus on Trump and on Israel lately, so Trump and Ukraine.
What is your understanding of the Kremlin's view of Trump's victory?
So my impression, based on what I've seen, read, and otherwise witnessed on video, is that it's a wait-and-see perspective from the Kremlin leadership.
I think Putin has said he's willing to talk, which is a change in policy.
Up until, I think, Trump's victory, there was just, Russia wasn't interested in talking because they're winning.
So at this point, I think there's a door open.
There's been the rumored, unconfirmed phone call between Putin and Trump.
I think that's significant.
Russia denies it.
The Trump campaign won't confirm it.
I think it happened.
I think it was off the record.
I think it was preparing the space for an official announcement of contact.
And as you remember, Judge, back in 2016, people went nuts when Mike Flynn had a call with, is it Kislyak?
The Russian ambassador.
You've got a great memory.
Kislyak, who's now retired, right?
That call led to Mike's indictment.
It was a terrible, terrible.
So I think that Trump, you know, fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
I don't think they can be fooled again.
To quote properly what George Bush tried to say years ago, just saying.
But I think that at this point, there's a lot of open channels of communication.
So I think the Kremlin is hopeful, but cautious.
You know, it's interesting your view on this phone call.
Did it happen?
Didn't it happen?
Most of your colleagues, some of whom are ex-military like you who come on this show, have all concluded that it did not happen because the source was the Washington Post.
Therefore, it was probably the CIA.
If Trump told Putin, dial it back.
As the Washington Post claims he did, Trump would be crowing about that.
And Peskov wouldn't be denying it.
It's a matter of, it's a question of fact.
And Intel could tell you whether or not the communication occurred.
But what interests me is that if it is the CIA and Washington Post doing their bidding, as we know it has happened for generations, why does the CIA want out there the idea That President-elect Trump called President Putin saying don't accelerate the war.
What's in it for the CIA that that should be the public understanding in America?
CIA somehow believes that stating that Trump wants to end the war is something that's going to motivate the Americans to protest.
That's why.
So both things can be true.
Both there can be a phone call and the information that they're saying was in the phone call can be incorrect.
That's a terrific analysis.
Does CIA want the war to continue?
CIA wants to change Trump's mind on the war.
Is that fair?
Yes.
You've seen pressure presented via the Wall Street Journal on some comments regarding concepts to end the war.
What was that, about five days ago?
While I've had no contact with President Trump or his team, I can tell you it's having no effect.
I just know how these things go.
It's like, yeah, whatever, we don't care.
So obviously at this point, could there have been a phone call?
I think there was a phone call.
I think it was off the record like, hey, let's just figure out how to work together.
I don't think Trump put any demands on Putin.
Do I think that someone interpreted that as like, oh my God, he's getting in there with Putin.
He's going to end it.
That's a motivational move by the CIA, who basically, by all accounts, are the ones providing directly Ukrainians' operational and tactical intelligence to conduct the war, especially against Russia.
So that's what their motivation is, I think.
Let's say Trump has Putin's personal number, whether it's his bedroom, his office, or his cell, in Trump's cell.
Trump picks up his own cell.
And calls Putin.
Would the CIA know about that?
I mean, stated differently.
Is American intel spying on the president-elect?
NSA collects pretty much everything.
So if it travels through the atmosphere, NSA, pretty good chance NSA captured it in some form.
Judge, there's multiple points of transmission that NSA has an opportunity, either if it goes by cable, if it goes through a switch, if it goes by satellite.
There's multiple opportunities.
It's just pretty much nothing travels.
Any signal on this planet traveling can be touched by NSA.
I'm just saying.
I am of the view that that is 100% correct.
And my view is based on people like you and others who are formerly, and in some cases still, in the intelligence community.
But the president-elect.
After what he went through at Trump Tower with the British spying on him, is he personally being spied on?
Does he realize that by the same government that he is about to take over in two months?
Well, the answer is yeah.
One of the things you and I have spoken publicly about and agreed upon is that the Patriot Act opened up all sorts of avenues of collection.
Tulsi Gabbard being on the no-fly list, the idea that members of Congress can be spied upon regarding certain perceptions of disloyalty.
These things all exist.
And so it doesn't take but one person within two hops of President Trump to justify some level of oversight and collection on.
So you can have someone literally in the periphery of the campaign judge.
And if that person becomes scrutinized, that gives them two hops in.
So, yes, the answer is, yeah.
OK, so I think Trump has performed adequate operational security, understanding the fact of what I just said.
For the understanding of the public, a hop is a phone call.
Son-in-law is being monitored because he's talking to his father in Lebanon, and then he talks to his wife, Trump's daughter, who talks to her father, the president-elect.
That justifies under the Patriot Act, as weird as this is, that justifies the spying on all of them, including the president-elect.
I would imagine that Trump's advisors have told him.
They're listening to you.
You're going to talk to Putin?
Okay, talk to him, but they're going to listen to it.
Yeah, no doubt.
And by the way, so that content is known to whoever.
If the call was made, the content's known.
That's what I'm saying.
It's like, even if they know the content, they're going to lie about it because the content was probably, Hey, Vlad, uh, let's be adults.
I think that's what the phone call was.
But they're not going to say that, Judge, because it doesn't meet the projected perception that CIA wants to say, oh, Trump's going to end the war.
And we need to be upset about that.
So that's what I'm saying.
And by the way, a quick note on this.
I think this is one of the things, again, I haven't talked to Tulsi, not lately.
But I'm telling you, I think this issue we're talking about is going to be something Tulsi looks at with an eye on why are we doing it this way and what benefit does this actually give?
Well, the concept of the hop is profoundly unconstitutional, was made up by the NSA and accepted by the FISA court.
That's not even in the Patriot Act.
It should be.
If I have any influence, it would be said.
All surveillance that is not based on probable cause of crime will be prohibited.
The FBI should be prohibited from its sting operations.
They should be prohibited from stopping people on the streets and taking their All this stuff requires radical change, and I happen to believe from my conversations with him, which are a few years ago now, that the president-elect agrees on all that.
Okay.
I believe so.
I think it's why I picked Tulsi.
Just saying.
Okay.
To Europe now.
What do the NATO and EU elites, I can only imagine what they think, think of Trump's election?
They're out looking for cash, probably, to compensate for what the United States had been paying.
Well, I'm going to start with Admiral Bauer, the new chief of NATO, his comments about, oh, he's worried that President Trump's going to depart from norms.
Is this an American admiral?
No, he's not.
He's not American.
I think he's one of the European countries.
I have to go back and look at which one.
Okay, forgive my interruption.
Go ahead, Tony, please.
Yeah, no, but Admiral Bauer has made comments about how his concern is that President Trump is going to depart from norms.
Well, the norm, to your point, is money.
Giving unlimited supplies of unaccountable money going into the European coffers based on the U.S. Funding most of their defense.
So I know for a fact, based on my prior conversation with the last team, that ain't going to happen.
And if you think that holding NATO accountable was bad and painful during the first term, man, oh man, I think some pain's coming for Europe.
And I think they know it.
I think they know that this is going to happen.
The other thing regarding NATO and Ukraine is Boris Johnson.
Did you see Boris Johnson saying, well, if the Americans stop funding the effort, we're going to send British troops?
No.
Where's he going to get them from?
I don't know.
you put all the British troops in Yankee Stadium, Yep.
I'm just saying that...
I don't think they're going to abandon Europe, but they're going to say, basically, you're in Europe, we're not.
You need to be cleaning your own backyard.
It's not our job to do your job.
And you know who agrees with them, who happens to be the rotating president of the EU.
Victor Orban, the head of Hungary.
Chris informs me.
Admiral Robert Bauer, Royal Netherlands Navy, is the 33rd chair of the military committee of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
If he's the 33rd chair, it's probably a two-year term.
I've been in combat with those guys.
Those soldiers.
And they smoke a lot of pot.
So I hope they test this guy.
Give him a urinalysis.
Are you serious or are you being sarcastic?
No, I'm not.
These guys, they are pretty liberal when it comes to drug use.
Just saying.
Okay.
Wow.
Somebody writes, Victor Orban was laughing and he loves it.
He probably is laughing.
He probably is.
I'd be laughing because he's Donald Trump's best friend.
Yeah, to that point, I think Orban has made some pretty big and good bets.
First off, he bet on Trump, good bet, going to pay off.
Orban is going to be in a position, Judge, to be Trump's emissary in Europe.
That is to say, whatever happens, whatever's negotiated, he's the man.
Orban's the man, which is a good, I think it's good.
I think it's a good choice.
They see things in a sympathetic way.
And I think this is going to help.
Even though Europe's not going to like it, I think this is going to help Europe get its act together, ultimately, by having some adult leadership finally come to the table.
How close is the Russian military to achieving substantially President Putin's goals in the war in Ukraine?
I think the Russian military is doing a great job of prevailing.
I know right now there's controversy about the North Korean troops coming in.
I don't see that as a game changer.
I think it's interesting and something to note.
I think they're primarily being used in a defensive role in the Kursk region against the Ukrainian forces there.
With that said, I think that...
I think they've gotten what they want.
And then start looking to wind the war down.
So I think they've achieved most of the military victories.
I don't think they want to do much more than what they have.
And I think that's where there's an opportunity to kind of take a step back and maybe look at some negotiation.
The Europeans and obviously the Ukrainians under Zelensky don't want to give up the territory, but I don't think they're going to have a choice.
So I think that's where this is going.
What would you advise President Trump to do?
I mean, you know that the Russians will not negotiate with Zelensky.
Do they gently get him to one of his retirement places and replace him?
I think Zelensky's days are numbered because he's lost his luster.
Nobody's going to give him money.
He's done.
I think the Europeans want to, but they don't have any.
I think the British want to send troops, but they won't.
I think it's a lot of bluster, but I don't think there's anything left there.
I think if Putin's willing to talk, Trump's willing to talk, I think Zelensky, who's been really responding and motivated by the Biden administration, by Tony Blinken and Lloyd Austin.
I think once they're gone, Zelensky's gone.
Here's Jake Sullivan last Sunday, so four days ago, saying whatever Congress has authorized...
Cut number two, Chris.
President Biden made clear when President Zelensky was here in Washington a couple of months ago that we would spend all of the resources that were provided to us by the Congress on time and in full, meaning that by January 20th, we will have sent the full amount of resources and aid to Ukraine that Congress has authorized.
And of course, President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe.
And ultimately, as the Japanese prime minister said, if we walk away from Ukraine in Europe, the question about America's commitment to our allies in Asia will grow.
Will Donald Trump walk away from Ukraine without an agreement between whatever government succeeds Zelensky and the United States?
and President Putin?
The unlimited funding of a losing war is done.
If that's the definition of walking away, then yeah, it's not going to happen.
The American people have spoken, Judge.
This is something that's not...
What Jake Sullivan just said is insane.
Tony, I agree with you fully.
We don't know how much money they're sitting on.
The legislation allows the president to disperse the money as he sees.
He could be sitting on $60 billion and decide to spend all of it now in the next two months, and there's nothing that Trump or the Congress can do to stop that.
Well, nothing that can be done at this point, because so much was already appropriated.
And you know, once money's appropriate to the executive branch, they do what they want.
I think this is something that despite the happy face meeting with the president and the He's going to try to throw all the money he can within the time he's got left, probably about $9 billion between now and January from what I'm seeing.
I mean, does he want to deliver a mess to Trump for political reasons?
Does he not care about the humanitarian consequences of pouring cash?
Into a useless, fruitless, just about to end war?
No, this is why they're afraid of Pete Hegsteth coming in.
Most of that money, Judge, doesn't go to Ukraine.
It goes to the defense industry.
It goes to people in Washington who have lobbied for it.
It goes to Raytheon, Boeing, all the other big arms manufacturers.
And that then gets put in the pipeline to go to the front.
So, no, of course they don't care about the human cost.
Or else we would have thought about changing the course over a year ago.
This is all about at this point, rewarding the friends and family of the defense industry and pretty much nothing more because again, If it's all about rewarding friends and family of the defense industry, Donald Trump wants to reward them as well.
He wants to increase the defense budget.
He's not going to close any of those 850 military installations that his predecessors and he had.
He's not Ron Paul.
He's not going to shut them down.
No.
Well, so look, I know Pete has to, you know Pete.
Pete is, Pete's not going to take the view of a neocon.
He's not a neocon.
And I know our friends over at the Durant say that we're all neocon-like.
We're not neocon-like.
I think we recognize, and I've debated Ron Paul, if you recall, Judge.
I debated Ron Paul on John Stosser's show back when he ran for president regarding the role of the United States as a force globally.
Ron Paul and other libertarians are against any use of military force by the United States outside of direct defense.
I don't disagree with that, but it's not practical.
We have, for better or for worse, been that force which has allowed global commerce to exist and work unimpeded.
So, you leave that space.
We leave that space.
Someone else goes into that space.
You are starting to sound, I love you, but you're starting to sound like Victoria Nuland.
I'm not.
I know you're not.
You leave that space, someone goes into that space.
Who is it?
So, at the end of World War II, it happened because Roosevelt wanted it.
Roosevelt had part of his plan to win World War II is to remove the British as the primary protector of global commerce.
He wanted it.
He got it.
We got it.
We inherited it.
I'm not here to judge it.
I'm just saying that's what happened.
And so for better or for worse, we're the ones who have guaranteed that for the past 50 plus years.
I'm not judging it.
I'm just telling you how it is, Judge.
And some people say, well, that's imperial.
Well, maybe.
Is Hegseth qualified to manage a budget of $860 billion and a person force of $3 million?
He's at least as qualified as Lloyd Austin.
Well, Lloyd Austin was a four-star general who commanded hundreds of thousands.
Badly.
Commanded hundreds of thousands badly.
Remember, he was the guy that pulled us out of Iraq and had the chaos that we had to go back and fix.
Lloyd Austin has been the architect of every failure of this administration in some form.
And I know Lloyd Austin.
I know that people get upset with me at the Pentagon every time I go off my rant.
I've been in combat with Lloyd Austin.
A lot of people at the Pentagon don't like him.
Let's get back to Pete.
Isn't he a fanatical Zionist?
Not that I know of.
I wouldn't call him a fanatical Zionist.
I wouldn't call him a fanatical Zionist.
Chris, let's play the new clip.
Anyone that wants to take the stage and talk about dual loyalty is dead wrong.
What this organization represents, what Western civilization represents today, is an understanding that Zionism and Americanism are the front lines of Western civilization and freedom in our world today.
And what better time for that relationship?
From the scrapping of the terrible Iran deal to the embassy move, the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and the recognition of the Golan Heights.
This president is a true friend of the state of Israel.
It is an eternal bond, an unbreakable bond, that represents faith and freedom and fidelity to historic religious and cultural traditions, the opposite of secularism and Islamism and anti-Semitism.
So, in other words, God the Father gave Israel to the Jews 3,000 years ago, and therefore their descendants, notwithstanding the advent of Christianity, own it.
I also guess that Bibi will get whatever he wants when Pete becomes Secretary of Defense, even more than he got from Biden.
Probably.
Yeah, I agree.
So I know this is probably a point you and I don't agree on, but it's okay.
I do believe that there's a clash of civilizations.
I deal with folks of the Islamic faith every day.
I work with the Association of British Muslims in the UK.
Mohamed, shout out to you.
They're concerned.
As I'm concerned, that radical Islam, left unchecked, will destroy Western civilization, period, to include those of the Islamic faith who have given up violence as a part of their religion.
So, to me, the idea of signing up in some form of saying Western civilizations under attack by radical Islam is not a bad thing.
The Israelis are an ally in it, as are the Egyptians, the Saudis.
The Jordanians and others.
So part of the concept was, and I was part of it, the Abraham Accords of bringing together the Sunni Islamic, you know, the Sunni being the folks in Saudi Arabia and the Arab states versus the Shia, which are the Iranians.
So there is a conflict there.
I think we, for better or for worse, have chosen to be as part of the Sunni, as have the Israelis, and the Shia.
The Iranians had been the ones who had been causing all the trouble with funding to Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi.
Is Zionism, which slaughters innocents by the trove on the front line of...
Or is Pete getting carried away with himself there?
I don't know Pete's heart.
I'd have to go with what he's saying there.
He's saying Western civilization is something that we have to defend.
Our ally are the Israelis.
And as you know, I worked for our friend Dr. Herb London, who was a Jew.
Back when I ran the London Center, technically, I guess I do.
But you have to remember, Judge, a lot of folks you and I have dealt with over the years were part of the team that supported the Israelis and their ability to sustain themselves as an independent country.
Is Israel committing genocide in Gaza?
I don't believe so, no.
You can't commit genocide when there's 400 million Arabs and 9 million Jews.
Okay.
We obviously have a profound disagreement on that.
We do.
I'm happy that you got elected to the office that you sought, and I hope you'll come back again.
Of course.
All right.
All the best to you, my man.
Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you.
Very interesting conversation with a longtime friend.
Coming up later today, at one this afternoon, Professor Gilbert Doctorow on all of this.
At two this afternoon, Professor John Mearsheimer on all of this.
At four this afternoon, Aaron Maté on all of this.
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