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Oct. 30, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
28:39
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow : Will BRICS Change Russia?
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Thursday, October 31st, 2024.
Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now.
Professor Doctorow, always a pleasure, my dear friend.
Thank you for joining us.
I believe you're in Russia.
Maybe you will share some observations that you've made while there, but deeply appreciate the time that you're giving us.
Professor Doctorow, how should one view from the Russian perspective the 2024 BRICS conference that just concluded in Kazan, Russia last week?
I think the Russians are overjoyed with the success that they had.
There was so much planning that went into this.
You have to remember, there was 22 heads of government, some of the most powerful people in the world, each of whom expects to be treated With great respect and to find their lodgings and their arrangements for meeting with Putin of the same level as their peers around the table.
That is a tremendous task.
And they carried it off well.
The enthusiasm of the participants, particularly when there were more than 30 countries represented around the table in the outreach second day of the summit,
They were so delighted to be there and to be part of this memorable historic event.
From the Russian standpoint, the intellectual leadership of their president was obvious.
Did the BRICS congregants, I will call them, since they're all of different levels, and some of them aren't even in BRICS yet, as I understand it, like President Erdogan of Turkey, did the BRICS congregants issue a manifesto at the end of the summit?
There was a declaration, and it's sort of a long one.
What's your take on it?
What's the importance of it?
It comes from the closing press conference that Vladimir Putin made.
His paper remarks are nice.
They confirm that they met and that they agreed on so many different things, but they don't give you a sense of the dynamics and where the whole organization is headed, and particularly the priorities.
That was something that Mr. Putin gave us when he picked the raisins out of the cake.
In the final hours of the summit.
And there we see a lot of unexpected developments.
Unexpected because perhaps our expectations were set unrealistically.
And we were not aware of the degree of sophistication and attention to detail and realism of those who at the top, and this is Putin and Xi, And Modi, particularly those three, who were aware of what is feasible as opposed to what is desirable.
And what are the significant unexpected developments, Professor?
No attack on the dollar.
I've heard many people talk about the results of BRICS as being an important milestone in de-dollarization.
To an extent it was.
But not in the sense that most everybody is saying.
That is to say, the sweeping aside of SWIFT will not happen.
The creation of a BRICS currency, a reserve currency, will not happen in the foreseeable future.
Now, does that mean that the dollar is going to go long swimmingly, that the bricks doesn't pose a challenge?
No, it doesn't mean that.
It means that we were all looking in the wrong place because the attack on the dollar is going to take place in a very different way from what we've seen.
Let me start with SWIFT.
That is a real shocker because the West controls SWIFT.
SWIFT is the system through which the banks clear their I don't think the Russians can use SWIFT at the present time under President Biden's sanctions.
Am I right?
You're right.
And this was viewed as a very important obstacle to detolarization, as a very important obstacle to Russia's commercial financial survival.
They have overcome it by patchwork solutions.
And what they are proposing for the future is more patchwork solutions that work and do not require superhuman efforts.
What I have in mind is the following: The agreement on trade, for which SWIFT would be an important point of resistance, is handled differently.
The SWIFT is global.
All countries participate, except those very few that have been sanctioned, like Russia.
The Russians want to leave to all of those aspirants for joining BRICS the possibility of being in both camps, of enjoying the benefits of SWIFT while a new reality is slowly created, and not to find themselves Exposed to the same difficulties that sanctioned Russia faces today.
Therefore, the agreements reached at the summit are to continue and expand the patchwork systems that China and Russia have developed to provide, to substitute for SWIFT in communicating and messaging what transactions, what payments are being made.
There's no global patchwork.
It is only for the countries that are members of SWIFT.
That's a very different reality than any of us expected.
It sure is.
Was there a feeling of triumph on the part of President Xi and President Putin?
Because what did they really agree to that hadn't already been in place before they got together?
Well, I've given you what could be construed as a disappointment for those who are cheerleading BRICS as providing an instant de-dollarization or an instant solution.
There must be another side to that coin.
The other side of the coin is they've looked elsewhere.
The emphasis is being placed on building the new development bank, that is the BRICS bank, and making that extremely attractive.
By increasing the number of projects enormously.
In the couple of years of its existence, the New Development Bank, under Rousseff's direction, the Brazilian former Prime Minister, has achieved a total loan portfolio of $37 billion, which is spread across 100 projects.
That will be multiplied many-fold, and it can be because of the The countries with a lot of cash, a lot of reserves, are not part of BRICS and weren't previously.
I have in mind United Arab Emirates.
And other countries which have large currency reserves and can help finance a massive expansion of the development bank.
Tell me what the vision of the bank is.
A lender of last resort to BRICS members?
It's certainly not going to be like the Fed.
It's not going to control the money supply because there is no universal currency, at least not yet.
No, the New Development Bank is a parallel institution that hopes to replace eventually the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF and the World Bank are cruel, punishing.
The developing nations, the emerging nations, who take money from the IMF and World Bank have to submit to its political dictates.
They lose sovereignty, they lose control over their taxes, their finances in general.
It's a big political impact.
Does not impose any political conditions.
They don't have to restructure their financial organizations or impose austerity or whatever other limitations that are the normal practice of the World Bank.
Well, the point is here that by putting attention to the New Development Bank, the BRICS countries are making themselves Much more attractive to those countries that have not yet signed up to join BRICS.
And they are preparing the way for what I see as a big political outcome of the expansion of BRICS thus far is to create a block, a voting block in international institutions like the United Nations General Assembly, like the Olympics.
Committees, their global organization.
In these organizations that the United States has dominated by blandishments and by blackmail over the rulers of emerging nations.
That their sons will be denied or daughters denied access to American universities.
This kind of art twisting.
Let me ask you a couple of pointed questions.
Did Iran join BRICS at this gathering?
No, Iran joined last year.
What happened, what Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi engineered, and is so innovative, is the following.
They have created two classes of BRICS.
One is the core, which is now nine members.
Of that nine members, four were inducted last year.
And Iran is one of those inducted a year ago at the BRICS summit of 2023.
They became full members in January 24. The point of the new members was they were primarily from the Middle East.
They were largely Muslim.
They had a lot of cash.
And the point of the 13 They include Nigeria, Algeria.
Well, let's think for a minute.
What does this mean?
Why are these particular countries invited?
they are more gas and oil companies.
When you look at it, and here I come back to the unexpected way that a Now what does that mean?
Petroleum in particular is the world's largest commodity that has traded across the globe and has been traded in petrodollars.
It is now being traded under BRICS terms in national currencies to a large extent.
That extent is increasing constantly.
That is the weak point of the dollar.
And there, these new BRICS members added to the existing BRICS members give that organization a very big share of global trade in hydrocarbons.
What role, if any, did Turkey manifest there, joining the outer group, joining the inner group, or just dancing with these guys and making a decision later on, since it's already in NATO?
I don't think we have to read too much into the equivocal stance of Turkey.
I think other countries that are in line to join BRICS as partners also don't want to.
Put all their eggs in one basket.
Particularly, it's not entirely clear that this basket is going to be successful and will replace the G7 as the board of directors of the world.
So I don't think that Xi and Putin are nervous about Mr. Erdogan's standing in both camps or his remaining a member of NATO while also seeking to join BRICS.
He is in the outer group.
He is a partner, a designated partner, and not a designated BRICS member.
There was no expansion of the core BRICS at this summit.
Does the bank exist yet?
The bank exists for at least two years.
Can members in the outer group participate in the benefits of the bank, or do you have to be in the inner core group?
You don't have to be a member of any of them.
The purpose of the bank is an outreach to emerging nations.
It is the come hither call of the BRICS members to the global south.
It is what I say will be the glue in putting together a voting bloc in these international organizations Got it.
Did you detect any international opinions?
Well, you weren't there, were you?
You observed all of this from your normal perch in Brussels.
Do I have that right?
You have that right.
And I hope that we can just get to the point of what's the difference between being there and watching on television.
Well, to me, you are such an astute watcher of these things.
You probably learned as much from afar as people did.
But I want to ask you if you detected, from whatever sources you have, any collective or individual opinion of the BRICS nations on what's going on in Gaza and Lebanon?
No, these subjects were really marginal.
There was a consensus opinion, of course.
There was a statement by several members.
In particular Iran, the president of Iran made a very strong statement condemning the actions of Israel.
His was the most outspoken.
For the rest, for other members, it was taken for granted that what is happening is an atrocity for which the United States and Israel are both to blame.
But they did not spend much time on that, just as they didn't spend much time talking about about the war in Ukraine, other than to express general support for a shift from the battlefield to a negotiating table.
Nothing more specific was put on the table.
It was not a distraction as they proceeded with their deliberations over how to organize BRICS, whether it needs a central administration or not.
That was a subject for discussion.
And it's still a work in progress.
What's the relationship between President Xi and President Putin?
Is it a friendship of convenience or is it a genuine alliance?
I think it's a genuine alliance.
It was stated explicitly by Putin in one of his meetings that there is a false idea to speak of.
A senior partner and a junior partner.
Indeed, the Russians proved, Mr. Putin proved at his BRICS something that we knew a few years ago, but we haven't tested.
And that is that Russian diplomacy is probably the best in the world.
It's certainly better than Chinese diplomacy.
From your observations from afar, did you detect Let me clarify something.
Almost all the proceedings of the BRICS summit were behind closed doors.
Therefore, either if you were in Kazan or if you're watching it on television in Brussels, You don't know what was going on.
And so no one can properly answer your question.
This is a summit of leaders, and it's not a public diplomacy exercise.
The most important statements in the whole summit were made by Putin in a couple of speeches, particularly his speech to the extended, the outreach.
Second day of the summit and his concluding remarks in his press conference.
My point I wanted to make about being there and not being there is that if you've watched an opera on television versus watching it from the theater, from the opera theater, they're different experiences.
Unless you're sitting in the front row.
You don't really know what the expression of the singers are when you are in the theatre.
You certainly know when you're watching television because the close-ups are too close and you see every wrinkle.
The same thing pertains to this BRICS summit.
I was intrigued that Pepe Escobar was at that press conference.
And yet, I'd like to just point out a distinction.
It has nothing to do with him or with me.
It has everything to do with the medium.
What he would not have been aware of is that when the meeting was opening, the Russian camera men focused twice on Steve Rosenberg, the BBC journalist.
Now, why did they do that?
There were more than 200, perhaps closer to 300 journalists in the room.
Well, he must have been given a question that President Putin wanted to answer.
But there was more to it.
There were two sides to this.
I have no doubt that this was a deal that Peskov knew in advance.
He requested in advance.
Steve, you want to get the microphone?
Tell us what you're going to ask.
And Steve?
We give you the microphone.
The BBC is going to carry what Putin says.
And the deal was done.
because the most astonishing thing is and this again so it's no criticism of who is in the room but it's a statement of simple fact that the next day BBC had this morning news a commentary by Steve Rosenberg on the BRICS event and on the press conference and they posted
Is this fellow Mr. Rosenberg, the one who asked about North Korean troops in Russia?
No, no, that was the NBC Star Wars.
That questioner has a British accent.
We'll play the clip for you if you want to hear it.
I don't know if you've seen this before.
No, no, I've seen both.
Please go ahead.
Chris, number one.
Satellite images are said to show North Korean troops here in Russia.
What are they doing here, and wouldn't that be a massive escalation in the Ukraine war?
Now, as for our interaction, relationship with North Korea, you know, we ratified our treaty on strategic partnership, which contains Article 4, and we have never doubted the fact that North Korean leadership is very serious about their Commitments to us and engagement with that.
But as for how we do and what we do, it's up to us to decide under Article 4 of this treaty.
First, we need to hold the relevant talks about implementing Article 4 of the Treaty on Strategic Partnership with North Korea.
We're in contact with our friends from North Korea.
We'll see how this process develops.
That said, the Russian armed troops are moving forward very steadily.
No one can contradict that.
It's moving forward at all the parts of the line of contact.
Is it significant that that question, which is really outside the realm of BRICS, was put to him in that environment and he chose to give a rather complex and complete answer?
Again, I think this was agreed in advance.
There were 200 journalists there.
There were a lot of foreign journalists, but none of them were from unfriendly countries, other than these two.
So, of course, it had been scripted that they would be given the microphone and that they would ask these questions.
And they were among the most important questions that Putin dealt with during the press conference.
If you had been there, what would you have asked President Putin, Professor Doctorow?
Well, I think it would have been closer to what Steve Rosenberg was asking.
He asked a very pecan question.
That is, how do you square Russia's behavior in Ukraine with the principles that are set out in the Declaration and in Iran remarks that Russia stands for stability and for security and for justice?
And how did President Putin answer that?
Oh, he answered it magnificently.
He was well.
He went on the offensive.
How just do you consider this, that and the other things that has been done to Russia, moving NATO's borders, the staging, the coup d 'etat, overthrowing elected government in Kyiv in 2014.
The question of security, this was quite a nice question coming from Rosenberg.
You say that you stand for security, but is Russia more secure or less secure today?
Did you have drones attacking your cities before the special military operation?
How did he answer that?
Well, he said, we're much more secure today because before, our sovereignty was under threat.
Russia was being...
And we have, through the special military operation, we have reasserted our sovereignty, without which Russia cannot exist as a nation state.
It was a very well prepared answer.
It was a pushback.
And I think it was surprising to me that the BBC carried the whole of this.
Last question.
Did you detect from your observations any rivalry between President Putin and President Xi for dominance over BRICS?
I think...
There's the simple answer.
But I think that, look, the BRICS is all about the global south Russia is the only European country in BRICS and the cultural affinity between Russia
China was a major force globally 500 years ago, but it has not been a big global player until the last 20-30 years.
So I don't think there was room for such a competition.
It's like speaking about Germany and France and how they divided their functions as the locomotives of the EU.
That Germany was allowed to be the economic leader and France was allowed to be the diplomatic leader.
I think there's a certain parallel here.
China is the economic leader and Russia is the diplomatic leader.
These observations are simply marvelous and such food for thought, Professor Dr. Rowe.
I know it's the middle of the night where you are, but thank you very much for your time.
Thank you for accommodating our schedule.
I hope you'll join us next week, wherever your travels may take you.
Thank you, my dear friend.
Thanks for having me.
Of course.
Coming up later today, actually not much later than now, at 4 o 'clock.
This afternoon, Eastern, Aaron Mate at 5 o 'clock.
This afternoon, Eastern, Colonel Larry Wilkerson at 5.30.
This afternoon, Eastern, Professor Jeffrey Sachs.
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