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Sept. 5, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
25:05
LtCOL. Tony Shaffer: Is Ukraine Near Its End?
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Thursday, September 5th, 2024.
Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer will be here with us in just a moment on, is the end coming for Ukraine?
And if so, how soon?
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Tony Schaefer, Colonel Schaefer, always a pleasure, my dear friend.
Welcome back.
Thanks, Judge.
Good to be here.
Thank you for your time.
I want to explore your views and your analysis on Ukraine in some depth.
Let's start, if I may, with the now three- or four-week-old Ukrainian incursion, NATO incursion, if you will.
I'll let you describe it as you see fit into Kursk.
How damaging, if at all, has that been to President Putin?
How smart or ill-advised was it in the first place?
Well, I think let's start with, as you mentioned, the reality of what the attack was.
For better or for worse, this had been in the planning for apparently at least a year, based on the idea that if...
If Ukraine could grab something of significance from the Russians, it would give them, quote-unquote, leverage if they had to negotiate.
So I do believe, while this has been, I don't think it's been necessarily disputed, it's been downplayed, the Ukrainians using, at a minimum, CIA targeting information, I think there's at least one credible article that says that CIA provided them A set of intelligence reports relating to Kursk that CIA thought they were giving them for targeting information,
not for an invasion.
I don't believe that for a minute.
I think CIA knew exactly what they were going to do with them.
gave them information relating to Kursk.
Now, there's two things at Kursk, Judge, that were of interest that could be used for quote-unquote leverage.
One is the Kursk nuclear power plant.
The other is there's a nuclear weapons depot within the Kursk area.
And so I believe that the actual objective, although that's not what Zelensky is saying now or the Ukrainians are saying, the actual objective was to seize and maintain control of these two nuclear facilities, especially the nuclear weapons.
I think they really wanted the nuclear weapons.
And see those targets required they pull things out of Donbass to include pulling out some of the most elite units of the Ukrainian military out of Donbass.
And the theory was that the justification, their rationalization, if you will, within the minds of the Ukrainians, like even if we don't get those strategic targets, it's going to force the Russians to pull back out of Donbass.
And move their forces up, which was stupid.
I would have instantly said, that's not going to happen.
The Russians have an order of magnitude more forces than you do.
Why would they take forces in combat out when they can just pull them from somewhere else and put them in?
It never made sense.
And so what ended happening a month ago is...
I think there were U.S. armored personnel carriers, Bradleys burning.
And it's been, you know, despite the fact they've put the best face on it, saying, oh, Ukraine is now in control of Russian territory.
They failed in achieving any single strategic objective, and now they're stuck where they're at.
I think the Russians have recognized this is another opportunity to basically, through aggressive attrition, deplete the Ukrainian military.
And oh, by the way, then, they're moving more rapidly in Donbass.
So in the end, it's actually a win-win for the Russians more than anything else.
A couple of questions.
One, are they surrounded?
Or can they still get food and medical supplies from Ukraine?
I think the answer is they're surrounded, but the Russians are allowing a certain amount of material to go in and out.
I think the idea is to grind these people down.
Judge, one of the notable features that has been ignored by the West is Putin is not a madman.
Putin is very rational, and the people he's put in charge of this war have actually been very good stewards of men and material regarding how they're used.
They allow the enemy, well, their enemy, I'm just trying to be, you know, this is all gray to me, I'm just calling balls and strikes here.
They, the Russians, allow their enemy, the Ukrainians, to use their force against prepared obstacles and defenses.
And by the time they're done doing that, well, they've exhausted themselves and they're easier to overcome.
And so that, to me, is a very rational, very well-thought plan to trade and grind them down.
So this is what they're doing in Kursk is the same thing.
Another, another.
It's interesting.
It's interesting that you, um, Nobody wants to talk about it.
Right, because President Zelensky is not talking about it.
He's boasting about two things.
One, and he uses kilometers, so I'm translating this into miles.
We control 500 square miles.
Russia's huge.
That's a pinprick to Russia, but it's still a lot of land.
Two, And I don't know if this is true, and I want you to tell me if your sources verify this.
They have used the prisoners, the Russian prisoners that they've captured, to exchange for Ukrainian prisoners previously captured.
So he thinks this is a...
I don't know what he thinks.
He's portraying this as a win-win.
Yeah.
So, Judge, I could go to the Capitol Mall right now and claim that I'm controlling the 14 square miles of Washington.
It's like, here, I'm controlling it.
It doesn't mean I am.
So, he can say whatever he wants.
I don't think the Russians would confirm that.
I think the Russians have allowed him to continue, the forces to continue to exist to the level of their comfort.
That is to say, the Russians feel it's not that big a deal that they can't Deal with this little by little.
And again, by the fact that you've now opened a fifth front.
Remember, this was new.
This is something that they've had little border incursions in this area.
But, Judge, this is a fifth front for the Ukrainians.
It's a fifth front that they can't man adequately.
So the Russians are saying, yeah, keep them there because we're going to swing around and continue to expand our control of Donbass.
It's a lose-lose.
What is your make?
On President Zelensky's now public request of President Biden for long-range missiles, missiles that he can shoot.
Yeah, so someone who's winning doesn't continue to make outlandish and extended claims and requests for support.
This is another clear indication of desperation.
And I think the Biden administration now accepts that.
I don't think they're going to admit it, but they're going to have to accept it.
I think at this point, there's going to be a bifurcation.
Of Ukraine, no matter what happens.
The basic areas that the Russians are in will continue to be more and more under their direct control.
And I think there's going to be a split down the middle and roughly the Dinepur River is going to be that split.
And I think the more you see...
At this point, I think the Biden response is going to be to give them enough, Judge, to make sure that a collapse of their military doesn't happen before November, because obviously a collapse of Ukraine would look bad for the It is not you and
me being snarky by saying Ukraine will never collapse before November 5th.
This is probably foremost on the minds of Defense and State Department planners.
They don't want to let down.
This is realistic.
It's not.
Absolutely.
Oh, this is right.
Yeah.
And I again, Jake Sullivan is a political animal.
He's not competent, but he's very he's very loyal to the political goals and objectives of the Democrat Party.
And I would argue everything he does to include other conflicts, to include Hamas and Israel are all focused on what benefits the Democrat Party, not benefits.
The combatants are the countries involved.
And so at this point, I think Jake Sullivan, as much as I think he's acted through aspirations, not reality, the aspirations are about to be exhausted.
There's just nothing left.
Before we leave Kersk and go on to other issues involving Ukraine, is there any dispute that CIA was involved and that American human beings on the ground
Is there any dispute that CIA, MI6, and American human beings were involved?
I can't speak.
I have no direct knowledge of what the nomenclature or T-O-N-E or whatever it is.
I don't know what's on the ground.
But I can tell you based on my experience, you probably have CIA, either contractors or actual officers, forward-based near or at the border, probably giving tactical guidance to the commanders.
I've done this myself in some form.
I've run covert actions.
We've done operations where we've used militaries as a proxy.
I can't say where it happened, but we did it.
And so in one instance, I was up front with a certain military.
One of my officers was with the forward element of that military doing things against a terror target.
And we were the ones bringing in the intelligence.
And giving it to them, to our partner, because it was coming from very highly classified sources and we were the relay for it.
We were kind of the quarterback of the operation.
We were telling them where to go and all that.
So I do believe...
It's on my knowledge.
My belief is that CIA had some level of a quarterback operation going on to help direct and get them across the border into certain points.
Here's the bottom line question.
Are there American human beings in this 500 square miles of Kursk?
I think, yeah, I think there are.
I think there are probably contractors of some level of minor Plausible deniability.
I think there's members of the media there probably as well.
I think we'll probably come to find within the next two weeks who those folks are.
I think the Russians are probably going to roll up somebody and we'll probably see it before too long.
Okay, before we leave Korsk, here's President Putin.
On just what you and I have been discussing, and he said this on Monday of this week, cut number four.
Their calculation was to stop our offensive actions in key parts of the Donbass.
The result is known.
Yes, of course, our people are going through a tough time, especially in the Kursk region.
But the main task of the enemy was to stop our offensive in Donbass, and they failed.
He's right, isn't he?
Yeah, I hadn't seen that, but yeah, I mean, by the way, I don't talk to Putin, just saying.
So, I don't.
But anyway, no, what I just gave you as an assessment was completely independent of any Russian information.
As a matter of fact, Judge, the Russians are upset because I continue to turn down any interview requests.
It's just like, look, I'm not on anybody's side.
I'm here to assess things as a neutral third party, and I do my best to do that.
So, I don't feel going on Ukrainian media or Russian media would be wise at this point.
And I pay attention to sources I believe to be accurate relating to on-the-ground information.
So I don't think – It is.
Yeah.
Okay.
All right.
Switching gears.
And I'm not pro-Putin, just for the record, because I always get accused of being pro-Putin.
I'm not pro-Putin.
Just saying.
Understood.
What do you make of the radical cabinet shakeup by President Zelensky?
Well, again, you don't make dramatic changes if things are going well, right?
I mean, I think that there's some writing on the wall regarding resources.
Man, oh man, you get billions of resources and you don't really move the football down the field.
You know, you start looking at how to fire members of the coaching staff.
And I think this is what he's doing.
And plus, which has also been way underreported, Judge, is the loss of one of the vaunted superweapon F-16s, which I still roll my eyes every time I think of them as a superweapon.
I mean, John Boyd was a brilliant man to invent the A-10, the F-16, and the F-15, but the F-16 and what they were supposed to be doing is really way overrated.
And apparently there's a mystery about how one of them was shut down and Zelensky fired the chief of the Air Force.
So I think to use a very short term for what's going on, it's rearranging text.
I just don't think the government of Ukraine has long left.
What is your take on the Russian use of hypersonic missiles, two of them, to destroy the Ukrainian equivalent of West Point, which they did the other day?
It killed 50-some-odd people, including some Swedish and Polish instructors, a number of cadets, and it injured well over 200 people.
And even though this was their version of West Point, it was in a residential area.
It wasn't out in the country like our West Point is.
I think the Russians are sending a message.
The message is this.
The incursions and targeting of civilian targets within Russia, which the Ukrainians have done, this is, I think, one of the responses that's to be expected.
The other thing, the use of the hypersonic missiles against some of the targets, especially infrastructure targets, is to remind the Ukrainians that winter's coming.
And one of the most vulnerable points within the nation of Ukraine is their power grid.
And some of the things that I think the Russians are doing right now is to remind them that they, the Russians, are not being as aggressive as they could be.
I think the Russians saw that as a legitimate target that kind of sent a message.
You mentioned Russia today, and you mentioned being invited on Russian television.
I get invited on Russian television also.
Here's Attorney General Garland.
Chris, let's play both clips together.
So this is going to be a little bit over a minute, Tony.
Two clips from the Attorney General yesterday.
Cut number nine, and then cut number ten.
In the wake of Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, RT's editor-in-chief said the company had built, quote, an entire empire of covert projects designed to shape public opinion in Western audiences.
To implement this scheme, the defendants directed the company to contract with U.S.-based social media influencers to share this content on their platforms.
The subject matter and content of many of the videos published by the company are often consistent with Russia's interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions in order to weaken U.S. opposition to core Russian interests, particularly its ongoing war in Ukraine.
The company never disclosed to the influencers or to their millions of followers its ties to RT and the Russian government.
Instead, the defendants and the company claimed that the company was sponsored by a private investor.
But that private investor was a fictitious persona.
The charges unsealed this morning do not represent the end of the investigation.
It remains active and ongoing.
It's deja vu all over again, to quote a certain baseball coach.
They're going to roll out the Russian collusion narrative again.
Do I believe the Russians contract with social media?
Of course they do.
If they're using that as a standard, what are they going to indict CCTV, the Chinese TV, and the Russian influence in Hollywood?
I mean, I'm sorry, the Chinese.
What am I saying this morning?
Sorry, China.
The Chinese Communist Party has a network that runs in the United States.
I've been on that network.
The Chinese own and direct a great number of Hollywood production houses.
Gee, and I know for a fact the Russians, I mean the Chinese, implement messaging within the context of what they control.
So, you know, gee, there's a number of nations which have influence over U.S. social media, electronic media, production of movies, TV.
So I see this as 2016 done over again with people who dress worse and are less articulate.
Well, that doesn't matter to them, Judge.
Kamala Harris has already said, as well as that guy with the Tinkerbell energy.
Oh yeah, Tim Walz.
Tim Walls apparently think that the First Amendment is something that the government can issue regulations around.
And so this is just more of that expanded...
I think this is all about November as far as I'm concerned.
Fully agreed, Tony, and much appreciated.
Last question.
We know this isn't going to happen before November 5th, or we'll say November 6th, but how near to the end?
In light of all of this that we're talking about, as well as what you know from your sources.
How near to the end is the Ukraine-Russian war?
The Donbass, I think, will fall within October.
I think Donbass will be done.
And once Donbass is done, there's going to have to be an assessment of both sides.
What happens next?
That'll be a perfect time should Trump win to come in and propose some level of a sane return to diplomacy.
If it fails, if Kamala Harris comes in, you could see the Russians going in and taking not only Donbass, but probably going into Odessa as well and leaving a rump state of Ukraine to kind of fly.
It would be tragic for the people of Ukraine and Europe.
But I think Kamala Harris would not support Zelensky to the level necessary to keep the war going.
At the same time, she would do what she could to distance herself from the failure.
So it's bad for the Ukrainians no matter what.
I think Zelensky is going to be looking to move into one of his Florida houses probably by December if things go badly either way.
Tony Schaefer, always a pleasure, my dear friend.
Thank you, Judge.
Thank you very much for joining us.
We'll see you again soon, and good luck in your campaign for the legislature.
Thank you.
Thank you.
All the best.
Thank you.
Coming up later today at 9 o 'clock in the morning Eastern, Professor Gilbert Doctorow at 2 o 'clock this afternoon, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson at 3 o 'clock this afternoon.
Professor John Mearsheimer at 4 o 'clock this afternoon, the always worth waiting for, I know I say this, but it's true, Max Blumenthal.
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