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Sept. 3, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
32:16
Alastair Crooke : US Duped by Israeli Lies?
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024.
Alistair Crook is here with us.
It's almost as if this is a Monday with our schedule today.
Alistair Crook is here with us and will be with us in just a moment on what is the U.S. supposed to do when Israel lies to it.
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Alistair, good day to you, my friend.
Good day.
How manipulative and how dangerous is the manipulation of Israeli reaction to military strikes?
In other words, the Israelis always claim they are achieving their goal, and they stopped Hamas, and Hamas didn't get anywhere.
They stopped Hezbollah.
Hezbollah didn't achieve anything.
And you and I know that that's spin.
Does the American government recognize it as spin?
Yes and no.
I mean, I think what you're referring to is that just, I think it was a weekend or so ago, there was a sort of piece of theatre played out when...
And it was a carefully calibrated response.
And Israel's response to that was also quite carefully calibrated.
It didn't attack beyond five kilometers across.
The border, the Lebanese border, instead of it wasn't attacking in the far north or in the Bekaa or anything.
So it was obviously both sides signaling to each other they didn't want to call out war now, at least for now.
And so when it was presented, of course, it was presented as a huge victory.
You know, Israel preempted Hezbollah.
It shot down nearly all of the rockets that were fired.
Actually, the rockets were the decoys for the armed dome.
They'd reversed the Iranian one where the drones were the decoys and the missiles were the real thing.
And this time they did the rockets as a decoy and the drones, the attack drones, were the ones that actually struck.
As I believe they did into Tel Aviv.
So they changed it around.
But then when it's presented, we easily, we knocked it.
They caused no damage, the Hezbollah.
We put a hundred planes in.
destroyed thousands of missile launchers over a period of seven hours.
Actually, it was 20 minutes, but it was...
And we dealt with that.
Little damage done.
It was a feeble effort by Hezbollah.
It wasn't.
It was a carefully calibrated affair between both sides.
And Israel know that because they played their part in this.
But when it's put out in this way, it gives the impression.
And here's the danger.
And this is what the point of what I was writing was about.
You know, it suggests that there are opportunities, that there are possibilities to take out Hezbollah that are easy, just as they did then and as they did, if you like, to the Iranian missile launch on the 13th of April.
Oh, it wasn't, you know, it was so easy, there's no problem.
So we can seriously contemplate either taking out Hezbollah or even attacking Iran.
And we'll see what's happening because the air campaign, massive air firepower, will be successful in destroying the tunnels and the missile launches of Hezbollah.
And then we can do the same with Iran.
They have to do them in pair.
I remember being told long ago because the Americans had a sort of doctrinal point that, you know, any attack in Iran had first to eliminate any threat to Israel.
From Hezbollah happening in retaliation for an attack on Iran.
So it gives you this sort of false confidence.
And this is what happened in 2006.
Many people said, look, you go and do it.
You know, bomb Hezbollah, destroy their tunnels and everything.
We'll swap notes with you and then we'll do the same to Iran.
We'll bomb Iran.
And we will then attack Iran.
And this is how it can be done.
And the point I'm making is that it goes on and on.
F. Pa.
Pa.
has not been successful for decade after decade after decade.
And even in 2006, Rumsfeld was saying that very clearly to people who would listen and say, look, It didn't work.
It worked a bit for me in Afghanistan.
It certainly didn't work in Iraq.
And it hasn't worked, generally.
Air far-par, killing of civilians in large numbers by massive bombing has not been a strategic success at all.
And he recognized that.
But there are others at the time, even in 2006.
And, of course, then Israel attacked in 2006.
Hezbollah with massive far power.
And of course, they hit almost nothing.
And it was being claimed as a successful tactic then.
It was a winning ploy.
And it turned out that they bombed empty spaces.
Let me try and draw some takeaways from what you just said.
The Israelis, as do a lot of countries in wartime, Are as concerned about public relations as they are about military strategy.
Israelis are drastically, radically, overwhelmingly losing the PR war.
So when they claim after a 20-minute theater, as you call it, two Sundays ago, that they prevailed, is their audience...
Is their audience the Israeli public?
Because outside the American government and public and the Israeli public, nobody's going to believe a word they say.
It is intended to try and convey to the key listeners in the United States that, you know, they can be successful in tackling Iran.
Because this has always been...
And I think all of this showing that Hezbollah was not a threat to Israel, easily managed, was to sort of smooth the path for trying to push or propel the United States to join it in an attack on Iran.
And why in Iran?
Because this is the only way out.
The walls are closing in, in many ways, in Gaza and the West Bank is really on fire now.
And then in the north, it is just as it was, getting slightly worse all the time.
The only way that Netanyahu sees out of this, and it's a way that he sees that has legitimacy, is to attack Iran.
And then this will be, if you like, the pyramid will collapse as the summit of the pyramid is destroyed.
But what I'm saying is it's a complete...
And this is the point I'm making.
They just have not gone forward and understood that we are...
These, if you like, Iran and Hezbollah and others have missiles, missile towns buried deep under the hills, automatic, that fire automatically through deeply buried, if you like, tunnels.
They don't have launches on the surface, like the spokespeople were trying to say.
They have deep tunnels.
This is why I'm saying it's a real danger.
I understand you're right.
Winning narratives, popular, keep the spirits up, is something.
But if people start to think that you can deal with Iran by flying F-16s over it and dropping bombs on Tehran and the area, and that that will not start something major.
You're mistaken, because it will bring Armageddon to the region.
The Iranians have sophisticated missiles that can hit anywhere in the region and beyond.
Indeed, almost, I think, even up to Europe as well.
So they promised they would do that.
Here's someone that we have mocked in the past.
And his naivete about Iran is overwhelming.
And he is the cheerleader in the American government for bombing Iran.
Senator Lindsey Graham, Chris, cut number three.
If you want the hostages home, which we all do, you have to increase the cost to Iran.
Iran is the great Satan here.
Hamas is the junior partner.
They're barbaric religious, Hamas.
They could care less about the Palestinian people.
I would urge the Biden administration and Israel to hold Iran accountable for the fate of remaining hostages and put on the target list oil refineries in Iran if the hostages are not released.
Isn't that naive?
Bomb Iran oil refineries if Hamas does not release the hostages for whose release Prime Minister Netanyahu has not engaged in serious negotiation?
Yes, completely.
And, you know, Iran has made it very clear to the United States, I think it's pretty clear, that if their, if you like, oil and energy resources are, there is an attempt to destroy them, then they will react and they will destroy the infrastructure of energy in the rest of the Gulf area.
And they will put a blockade on Hormuz, and there will be no oil coming from the Middle East to the West, and its economy will crash.
So they advise the West not to do that.
Wow.
Is U.S. military support for Israel unconditional in the literal sense?
If the American government knows that some of it is based on PR spin and outright trickery and deception?
Well, this does concern me because I think, again, you know, there are two layers to this issue.
Of course, there are, just as there were in 2006, as I wrote, you know, Americans, you know, be warning.
To be cautious about this.
And in fact, the commander of the NATO bombing in Kosovo, the American commander at that time, was saying, listen, don't even think of bombing another country, a major country, unless you're prepared to put ground forces on the ground as well.
It's not sufficient just to bomb it and go home after four or five days.
I mean, it was 78 days in terms of Serbia.
But I think there is that sort of sense of, if you like, caution.
But what concerns me is if Netanyahu manages to provoke Iran.
He's tried twice to provoke Iran.
First with the killing in Syria, in Damascus, in the consulate of a senior general.
Then with Haniyeh.
Later in Tehran.
With these two things, a third provocation, maybe attacking someone more senior in Iran, would provoke a reaction.
There's already been, I've seen coming out of some of these sort of channels in America, you know, stop going for the generals, go for the ayatollahs in Iran.
Well, if that happens, then there will be for sure a major reaction.
And then the question is, can America politically stand back from it?
They may want to.
They can see what's happening.
They don't want to be pulled in.
But the political structures, the power structures in the United States, I can't see them standing back and allowing Congress to let these things pass in the Middle East.
Without America being involved to defend Israel and to defend it to the utmost.
So I think it's a more nuanced answer than just yes or no.
So I think that America is, particularly at this time, in any case, I don't think it's anxious to go to war.
We've just heard Lindsey Graham extolling it.
But I don't think that's a very wide sentiment.
But I think the danger is we all know that the power over Congress, that the, if you like, the sort of deep structures of foreign policy exist within Congress, make it very hard to see that even if the president wants to, will he be allowed to allow Israel to be destroyed or attacked in the central and northern parts of Israel?
With missiles, as would happen in a war with Iran, because Israel would be targeted.
They've made that very clear, and I've made that clear too.
They would be targeted.
The whole of Israel would be targeted if there was a serious attack made on Iran.
I mean, the Iranians really do have deterrence.
People talk about Western deterrence.
But Iran has what I call a red pill deterrence.
That if they're attacked, then Israel's over.
I mean, that's deterrence.
And they say, don't attack us.
That's deterrence that they can deploy.
And it is serious.
Does the American State Department and Defense Department have a grasp on all of this, as you've just articulated?
Or are they more Lindsey Graham in their attitude and understanding?
Well, you know, and that's why I rehearsed some of those things that came from a piece by Cy Hirsch in 2006.
I mean, there were both views.
I mean, there were people who thought it was great that Israel was attacking Hezbollah.
Well, it wasn't.
They lost that war.
I mean, they didn't destroy the tunnels and they didn't destroy Hezbollah.
And they suffered a great...
Dick Cheney was seeing Prince Bander at the time, and he said, you know, this is really terrible after, you know, they were supposed to win that war.
And, you know, and Iraq was supposed to actually, and what Iraq war has done is to make Iran more powerful.
and it was supposed to do the opposite.
So, I mean, you know, these were two areas where Here's a bit of a flashback to earlier in the summer Israeli Defense Minister talking about the very things that you're talking about.
Chris?
I'm standing here in Washington as Israel's Minister of Defense to say the following.
We stand firmly behind the President's deal,
which Israel I don't think there's much
truth in what he said.
About who his war is against.
He slaughtered tens of thousands, maybe a hundred thousand, in Gaza.
The peace proposal that he said his government accepted, we know it didn't.
But what do you think?
Oh, that's exactly right.
You remember, I think I told you once on an earlier program, Ron Derma had said, you know, we cannot end it until we've completely, not only dememorized Gaza.
And West Bank, but de-radicalize both.
And when asked, how do you de-radicalize them?
He referred to the effects of the Second World War on Germany and Japan and said, this is de-radicalization.
So, I mean, I don't think they were just saying, we have no, you know, we've got no grudge against the people.
They know, and they say privately, and they will say in Hebrew every day.
You know, all of the Palestinians are supporting Hamas.
We've got to deal with the whole problem.
And they also know that they have not succeeded in Gaza.
Again, we have Major General Brick writing just, I think, today saying, you know, we've lost this war.
Actually, the amount of tunnels we've destroyed is a few percent.
But we're taking heavy casualties.
And what's more, we're taking the casualties.
We're exhausted.
We will face collapse if we just expect to go back and back and go on fighting in Gaza.
Whereas Hamas is reconstituting, is getting a new They have got young men coming in and they are reconstituting their forces all the time.
We are losing men and they're exhausted.
And that's why he says, you know, look, it won't be a success.
We get out, it'll be a disaster.
Everyone will see we failed, it'll be a disaster.
But that's really, we have to sort of take the medicine and we have to accept this is where we've got to.
Of course, this isn't the view of the cabinet and the majority, and you'll have seen those big demonstrations in Israel over this weekend.
But don't be mistaken.
These didn't come, if you like, spontaneously.
We've been seeing for some time now as particularly the security echelon.
They became more and more, if you like, disenchanted, feeling disempowered, that they weren't able to stop what's happening, if you like.
And they saw Wien Gewehr and Smotrich and the right-wing proposing that we need to actually go to a bigger war.
And they've just declared over the weekend, they've just declared now that West Bank is a site of war.
I have a two-part question for you.
One, are you suggesting that the massive demonstrations and the general strike, which just lasted a day, were instigated by Intel, Israeli Intel?
And two, how stable...
Yes.
I mean, let me just be clear.
For the mass, I mean, all of the people demonstrating, they were doing this in absolute, you know, good faith.
It is a sort of cultural element.
It is a form in, if you like, in Judaism.
Is to save the world.
And so that comes from the Talmud, the early oral Talmud, that you should save every Jew because by saving one, you save the world.
So there was this very strong, I mean, genuine impulse to get the hostages back, the hostages, including the ones that were killed just recently.
But at the same time, We must go to the street.
We must simply get rid of this government.
We have to collapse the government.
And others were making a seon.
Former national security advisor was saying, the only solution we've got, this is, if you like, the sort of secular world, the Europeanized Ashkenazi world, against the world of the sort of Bengavirs and the Smotrich, and what I call the rejectionist Jabotinsky group, the ones that want to establish the state of Israel on Israel.
I mean, it's close to explosion.
It's really an incendiary moment between the two of them, very close to violence.
So I'm not saying that they got out there and physically organized it, but they've been encouraging, if you like, an attempt to collapse the government, if you like.
That's what the point of calling for the union to make a strike, for a strike, people to go to the street and to have mass, mass protests.
Was to try and bring down Netanyahu's government.
And the reaction from the right in his government has been very tough.
And people like Ben-Gavir said, I'm not ashamed to say we're using the power that we have to forestall any, if you like, deal in Gaza.
He says that explicitly in reaction.
And Gallant was alone in his call.
For saying it was outrageous and there should be a deal and the hostages must be released.
He was attacked by all of the cabinet, viciously attacked by the foreign minister, by all of the ministers, attacked him, saying that he was just, if you like, he was trying to appease the forces that wanted to destroy Israel.
So it's really, you know, it's the schism between these two.
If you like, dynamics in Israel is becoming incendiary.
And this is why I keep making these warnings, both, you know, back to the United States and back to others, that, you know, the only way out for Netanyahu at the moment is to escalate, is to go.
And that's why we're seeing what we see.
Here he is.
Here is Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday at his incendiary, best or worst, depending upon how you want to look at it, but he's certainly defiant.
Cut number one, Chris.
We're asked to make concessions?
What message does this send Hamas?
It says, kill more hostages, murder more hostages, you'll get more concessions.
The pressure internationally must be directed at these killers.
At Hamas, not at Israel.
We say yes, they say no all the time, but they also murdered these people.
And now we need maximum pressure on Hamas.
I don't believe that either President Biden or anyone serious about achieving peace and achieving the release would seriously ask Israel to make these concessions.
We've already made them.
Hamas has to make the concession.
I mean, that's basically a profound untruth, except that Hamas did kill the hostages.
Everything else in there was a gross exaggeration or a deception.
What concessions has Israel made?
Look, I don't care what you think of Netanyahu.
I mean, he's not an unattractive figure in many, many ways.
But it would be a great mistake to think that he is alone and that there are not others that support him.
And that there are not other armed forces that are behind him.
There are at least 10,000 militia vigilantes that have been armed by Ben Gavir and are ready to come down at the snap of the fingers of Ben Gavir and the others and support him.
You know, yes, he may be lying.
He certainly doesn't intend to do a deal.
And because he needs to take this to the next stage, which he hopes will lead into the final, if you like, Armageddon, if you like, battle that will bring down Iran and bring down all the forces against Israel and return deterrence to Israel.
You know, you may be skeptical.
I think it'll end up with the destruction of Israel.
But nonetheless, this is the plan, and it's unfolding, and it's now moved from Gaza to West Bank.
It's still going on in the north with Hezbollah and gets more and more serious.
And Israel loses more and more territory.
But if you just dismiss him as a sort of someone who is lying and is not serious, Israel could explode under these tensions.
You saw the huge crowds on the street wanting the hostages released.
that's been, you know, they've been devastated by the fact that those six were killed.
Unfortunately, that's I've done hostage negotiations.
And this is the basic rule.
You start every hostage negotiation.
The hostage takers tell you, if we detect any signs of an attempt at a military release, we kill the hostage immediately.
And so we always, with those negotiations, had to be so careful if they heard an aircraft that they weren't expecting.
They heard an engine.
They can just go and kill hostages.
I don't think that Hamas was quite as trigger-happy as that.
But undoubtedly, the attempt to rescue them, the sense that they did it to preempt an Israeli attempted rescue on, I think it was the 8th of June, when 274 Palestinians killed and four hostages were released.
So they decided to I am sorry to say it's an unpleasant fact of hostage life, but if they think all hostage-takers, when they suspect a military release is underway, will, first of all, kill the hostages.
Alistair Crook, my dear friend, thank you.
It seems like we've been discussing this for two hours.
You've given us so much information, but it's only been 30 minutes.
Deeply appreciated.
And your analysis is spot on.
All the best, my dear friend.
We'll see you next week.
Thank you so much.
All the best to you.
Of course.
Coming up later today, Ray McGovern at 10 in the morning Eastern.
Larry Johnson at 11 in the morning Eastern.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs at noon Eastern.
At 2 o 'clock Eastern, Matt Ho.
At 2.30 Eastern, Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski.
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