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Aug. 25, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
30:18
Larry Johnson : Can Iran Avoid War with the US?
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is August 26, 2024.
Larry Johnson will be here in just a moment on, is Israel committing national suicide?
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Larry Johnson, welcome here, my dear friend.
Some of the viewers who write in ahead of time were taking odds on what color shirt you'd be wearing today, and the odds were low because most people were betting, I don't know what color it is, but they were betting this one.
Yeah, it's the Monday red shirt.
Red shirt Monday day.
Life in Florida, God bless you.
But to matters far, far more serious.
I want to talk to you in a granular way about if Iran is going to be at war with the U.S. But before we get there, is Israel committing national suicide, Larry?
Sure appears that way.
You know, when you're in a fight, in particular in a war, the last thing you want to do is be fighting a civil war, be warring against each other at home.
You know, regardless of what people think about what's going on in Israel and Gaza and the West Bank, I'm saying just looking, stepping back and looking objectively at what is happening within Israel from a political standpoint.
You've got the head of the military, basically the Israeli military, the IDF, spokesman coming out and opposing Netanyahu.
You've got the head of Mossad opposing Netanyahu, and Mossad is like the Israeli version of the CIA.
You have the Shin Bet, which is, I describe it as, it's like the FBI with the CIA twist, because it's really, it's not so much a law enforcement outfit as it is a domestic intelligence, domestic security outfit.
All of them are coming out and condemning.
Netanyahu.
And Netanyahu, in terms, has been calling them cowards and weaklings.
And then, in addition to that, you've got some very prominent members of, you know, former members of the Israeli Defense Force.
There's General Itzhak Barik, who, he put an op-ed in Haaretz over the weekend.
And, boy!
He didn't pull any punches.
You know, he's certainly not getting invited to the Hanukkah parties this year because what he came out and said was that Israel, if it keeps on this path, it's going to collapse within a year, that the country will come apart at the seams.
So it's just, you know, you've got this separation.
I call it sort of the baby boomer generation.
Those people who are at least in their mid-60s that served in the Israeli military or in Mossad and such, going up against this younger crowd, this, you know, the Etamir bin Gavirs and Bezalaz Smotrich, this younger extremist crowd, and there's a real split.
Well, some of the stuff that General Barik said is, He's talking about his decisions to slaughter innocents and to use reservists and
the IDF with which to do so.
Also, let me add, is the Shin Bet chief.
So this is like the head of the NSA or the head of the FBI attacking Ben Gavir's militia, calling them Jewish terrorists.
Right.
Now, Ben Gavir, who's the head of their FBI, he has his own private army, or not private, it's subject to him, his own army, his own militia, his own police force.
And they back up and protect the settlers in the West Bank who are killing Palestinians and in some cases taking on the police?
Do I have that right?
Yeah, absolutely.
You know, it's very reminiscent of Hitler's SA.
It was one of the predecessors of the SS.
It was active in the early days of the formation, the rise of the Nazis in Germany in 1933-34.
And they were basically sort of thugs.
They'd go around and beat up Jews and destroy their shops.
It was a terrorist outfit.
That's exactly what Ben Gavir has created.
And they are, in fact...
And Alistair Crook was on your show talking about this a week ago, laying it out.
So at the very time that Israel is struggling to defeat Hamas, on the verge of expanding the war with Hezbollah and a war with Iran, it's facing this tremendous internal division.
You can't pretend that it's just one or two.
What's interesting is, if you just read those quotations that you read, if you said that, or I said that, and we do say that, we'd be accused of being anti-Semites.
Yet, here are the Jewish officials who serve their government as patriots are saying it.
Then we know that this isn't about anti-Semitism.
This is about barbarism.
Right.
Netanyahu and his crowd.
One of them is still a high-ranking official.
I don't know how they get their jobs.
The guy that's in charge of Shin Bet.
Yeah, Ronan Bar.
Ronan Bar.
Right.
So is he appointed by Netanyahu?
I mean, would this be like Chris Wray, the head of the FBI, attacking the president?
No, no.
Israel, at least with respect to its intelligence services, both Shembet and Mossad, these are not political plum jobs where they pick out a crony and put them in charge.
Now, I'm not saying that there are no politics in Mossad and no politics in Shembet, but by and large, you're dealing with people who are proven professionals.
The Israelis have been keen to not promote clowns.
Into those positions because they've recognized in the past that, you know, the survival of Israel may depend upon them.
And so when these people are coming out and calling out the Netanyahu government for its genocide, essentially, you recognize that Israel's in trouble because it's not like the economy's humming along great guns.
It's not.
It's not that tourists are flocking to Israel.
They're not.
That the ports are open and receiving goods right and left, they're not.
So at the same time that Israel's embroiled in this attempt to exterminate the Palestinian people, they are in an economic decline.
And the current leadership doesn't want to acknowledge what's going on.
From what source, Larry, does Israel get its oil, principally?
Well, a large amount of it comes through Turkey and out of Iraq, of all things.
So, again, there is that aspect of power that the Turks could exercise to force Israel into changing its course.
This is, you know, the problem we have is that The mindset of Gavir, Smotrich, and Netanyahu, if you've never dealt with people like that, you don't understand that you can't reach them with reason.
They are beyond the reach of reason and logic.
They are so caught up with their own emotions and they've settled in their belief that nothing's going to dissuade them from that.
Until they actually set the whole place on fire.
This is, you know, the head of Shembed.
One of his concerns was that they are in the thrall of a rabbi with this eschatological vision.
And we're talking about eschatology, the doctrine of last things.
They literally believe that they are going to bring about this battle of Armageddon.
And that it will usher in the appearance of the Messiah.
Because remember, from the Jewish tradition, the Messiah has not yet come.
For the evangelical Christians, it is all Jesus, the Messiah, will return.
But this particular branch of Judaism in Israel
Does Netanyahu and his crew have an academic or a theological guru, a rabbi, who preaches all of this at the same time he preaches blowing up mosques and busloads of Arabs?
Yeah, not Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, you know, he's all about power and taking care of himself.
But the Smotrich and the Ben-Gavir, yes, this Rabbi Dolph Lior, he's been quite influential and quite extreme.
So there's a religious dimension to this.
We can't discount that.
I think the tendency is for many Western pundits not to delve into the religious aspects of this, but they're real as far as these people are concerned, and that's what's driving them.
I mean, part of their premise is that they actually have a covenant with God, and that that was established 3,000 years ago, and they have a right to this land, and they have the right to do whatever they need to do to eliminate...
And so when you take a religious belief like that and then translate it into policy, of course you can kill Palestinian children.
Because they're just refuse in the way that you need to clear out.
And so that's part of what has the head of Shinvet so alarmed in his comments.
And he said, look, I'm...
But he goes, my God.
He said, what I'm seeing coming out of these Jewish mouths about Jewish supremacy, and not just that, hey, we're smarter, we're more accomplished, but it's that we're actually, we are human beings.
You are untermens.
You are not human beings.
He says that mindset is what alarms him.
And that has taken hold among a big segment within Israel.
That's the danger.
Is this a majority view?
This messianic belief, God the Father gave us this land and we can crush and destroy anything or any person who stands in our way.
We can establish our own morality because we are the chosen.
Yeah, apparently at least it's over 50%.
Now within Israel.
And again, part of those numbers, that number may go up as Israelis who were secular are leaving Israel for coming back to the United States, going to Europe, going to other places, because they don't embrace that.
As they leave, that means those who do believe that become a larger percentage of the population.
So it's sort of naturally gravitating that way.
Is the IDF worn out, exhausted, not prepared to take on Hezbollah, or ready and raring to go, or something in between?
No, I think they're worn out.
Look, Israel has largely a reserve army.
So, you know, the reservists...
But in this case, they're called up and they have to go.
They leave their businesses behind.
They leave whatever work they were doing.
And when you leave your job, in several of these cases, they don't have other people that can step in to replace them, number one.
And then they're launched into these combat operations in Gaza.
And let's not forget, you know.
Some may criticize me for drawing the parallels with what happened to the Nazi troops in Ukraine when they first went in and were rounding up civilians and killing them.
Well, at the time, the German commanders were riding back in the Wehrmacht saying, look, this is causing a psychological toll on our troops.
It's one of the reasons that they...
They're not killing guys that are decked out in body armor and carrying RPGs.
They're killing women and children, by and large, and the images are appearing.
They're horrific.
I mean, just in recent days, the actual pictures of I mean, it's sickening.
Babies missing chunks of their heads.
Now, we heard the Israelis after October 7th talk about, oh, Hamas killed 40 children.
We've never seen a single picture.
We've never had a single name.
But what's coming out of Palestine is names and pictures that are horrific.
And it's establishing a reality.
And so this is taking a toll on these Israeli soldiers.
They don't have an industrial base that's just cranking out weapon after weapon after weapon.
And so they don't have a strong reserve.
And that's what, at least the military is being honest, when the spokesman, who is a rear admiral, said just two weeks ago, they said, look, we can't beat Hamas.
Hamas is an idea.
And the evidence from the ground is showing that Hamas is recruiting more people now because what's happening is these Palestinians who are outraged at what's been happening to their families are now rising up to fight back.
So Israel has really set itself a problem that it is not capable of solving.
What are the chances, what is the likelihood of Iran engaging in a full-scale war with Israel and the United States coming to Israel's support?
And if the U.S. comes to the Israel support, I'm sorry for cutting you off, would it be with both feet, full guns blazing?
I think it's highly unlikely.
Let me put this here.
Iran does not want a full-scale war with Israel.
What I think Iran is going to do is they will launch a ballistic missile attack.
They may take out that, you know, Alistair was on your show earlier this morning talking about this place, Galat, which is Mossad headquarters.
It represents what they call Unit 8200, which is Israel's version of the National Security Agency.
They intercept communications, emails, telephone calls.
They track people.
I could see Iran launching an attack and hitting a facility like that, maybe destroying it, but it's going to be limited.
It's not going to be what we saw in April, April 13th.
When they launched that barrage of drones and then cruise missiles and then ballistic missiles, because that was a demonstration.
That was Iran's attempt to try to tell Israel that, look, we're not some impoverished little kid.
We've got a full panoply of weapons here.
And, you know, watch what you do going forward.
Well, Israel didn't get that message.
They assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran.
You know, Iran is, in my view, I think Iran is preparing a strike, but they're taking their time.
They are, one, bolstering and building up their defenses around sensitive sites in Iran that they believe Israel would be likely to hit.
They're doing so with the help of Russia, who's providing air defense systems like the S-400.
Russia also is providing trained personnel who know how to operate those systems, and then they can work with the Iranians in training them.
So that they will become proficient with electronic warfare.
But Iran's not, you know, in contrast to Israel, this is the real oddity.
Iran's not driven by this rabid emotion, even though, you know, the images that appear in the West or the crowds of Iranians chanting death to America and death to Israel.
But the reality right now is they're weighing not just...
But politically, what's going to happen?
Because right now, Iran is coming out of the shadows economically.
They have been under Western sanctions, but now because of their relationships with the BRICS countries, especially with China and with Russia, Iran's economic fortunes are starting to look up.
And the dynamic that's playing out in the region.
Is that the United States and Israel aren't becoming stronger.
They're becoming more weaker.
They're becoming more isolated.
And Iran looks like with the United States, we've deployed this massive naval fleet.
We've got two carrier strike groups in the region, not to mention several squadrons of F-35s, F-22, F-16 planes deployed.
Well, that deployment puts a cost on the United States.
And it's like, you know, if I tell you to sit there and hold a gun and be ready to shoot, and I say, okay, I'll be back in seven days.
Keep that up.
Don't let go.
You're going to get tired.
All right, so you've made the point very convincingly that Iran does not want a war with the United States.
Does Hezbollah, and can, if the answer is yes, can, to the extent you have an answer, Can Iran restrain Hezbollah or will Iran unleash Hezbollah?
Yeah, and Hezbollah is in the same fashion.
What they see themselves as defending the Palestinians.
They're not looking for a full-blown war with Israel, but they're ready to do so if necessary.
And they have the wherewithal.
That was what was so interesting about this exchange of...
And part of that, you know, I think one of the things that's going on with those drone attacks is that every time Israel would fire from its Iron Dome missile, there's intelligence being collected.
It wouldn't surprise me at all that Russia...
Or China gathered intelligence on the locations of where those weapon systems were being fired.
And that's being shared with the Iranians and being shared with Hezbollah.
Because a lot of times you can throw out a drone or two just to draw them out.
See, okay, where are you and what are you shooting?
And the other element that's in here, Judge, is that every time Israel shoots off one of those Iron Dome missiles, you know, two missiles to try to engage one inbound target.
It's not like they've got them in a massive stockpile that they're sitting on that they can just go pull them out of the cupboard and then put them, you know, reload.
So Hezbollah, though, you know, it sent a message, and Alistair talked about it convincingly on your first show today, that, you know, we can stand and we can go toe-to-toe with you on this.
And what Hassan Nasrallah said yesterday in the speech, it's fairly lengthy, it's online in transcript, and people should read it.
You know, if necessary, they may invade Israel.
But what they're hoping to see is that Israel agrees to a ceasefire and actually comes to a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinian people.
But that's not going to happen.
No, that's not going to happen as long as Netanyahu is running the government.
Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security advisor, was in Canada yesterday, Sunday, and he had this to say about Hezbollah, cut number three.
We have been concerned about the consequences.
And we have worked around the clock with partners and allies, moving military assets, engaging in intensive diplomacy, both publicly and privately behind the scenes, to avert that outcome.
We continue to work to avert that outcome.
And our hope is that the events of last night do not spill out into an escalation that leads to regional war.
Fanciful hope.
Doesn't he know that Netanyahu wants war?
Let Netanyahu and his religious zealotry folks believe that this is the time God ordained for them to kill everybody that's impeding them.
The United States could put a halt to this immediately.
You tell Netanyahu, okay, the military aid's done and we're cutting you off economically.
You're not going to get another drop until...
And that, you know, part of what needs to happen is that all of the 700,000, 800,000 settlers that are in the West Bank, they need to come out.
They need to withdraw.
But that's, you know, again, that's what needs to happen.
But politically, that's not possible.
They're not going to do that.
And so that's why they are...
And in making those decisions, it's going to do exactly what you said, which is expand this into a broader war with Hezbollah, with Iran, and with the Houthis.
What's fascinating is, while there is some coordination between them, they still retain the capacity to act independently.
And, you know, the Houthis basically have defeated, they've shown that they defeated the U.S. Navy.
Think about that.
What?
Yeah.
Well, the U.S. Navy set up the Operation Prosperity Guardian in December.
We were going to stop those Houthis.
We were going to show them that they couldn't close off the Red Sea.
We sent a carrier task force group in there, and what happened?
The group left because we couldn't stop the Houthis.
You know, so at least from the perspective of the Houthis, they won, because they're not the ones that had to stop shooting missiles and rockets.
They're not the ones that pulled the ships out of the Red Sea.
Now, there are still two, I think, two U.S. destroyers there, the USS Cole, and I forget the name of the other.
But again, they haven't stopped the Houthis, and the port of Elyat in Israel, which serves the Red Sea, it's gone bankrupt.
They're letting people off.
It's stopped operating.
Colonel Wilkerson says we only have three fully operative aircraft carriers, and two of them are there in the eastern Mediterranean.
I guess the third is somewhere near China.
Is this a wise use of military assets?
Oh, heavens no.
And again, the point is, the longer they're deployed, the more they're depleted.
We don't have the traditional ship tenders like we did in World War II, which would tell along behind these convoys and be able to resupply quickly.
A lot of times they need, particularly the destroyers, if they fire off any air defense missiles, they've actually got to go to port to be reloaded.
That's number one.
There's also news that came out over the last week about the U.S. Navy.
They're talking about they're going to have to decommission.
17 ships because they don't have enough trained crew to man them or woman them, you know, to completely staff them.
So right there you're seeing a weakening of the U.S. Navy.
And this comes at a time where China's Navy is building up and expanding.
They're building ships at a pace that looks like something we did during World War II.
And I'm not suggesting that we need to counter that or get into a military confrontation with China over that, but I'm just simply noting that in comparison of how the United States perceives itself and then what we're actually doing, it's a night and day difference.
Not happy stuff, but a terrific analysis, Larry.
Much appreciated.
Thank you very much for your time.
See you at the end of the week with the young man.
McGovern for the Intelligence Roundtable.
Okay, at least I wore a cheery shirt, okay?
Yes, you did.
Yes, you did.
I don't know if you can see the comments that I do, but our regular viewers love your shirts, Larry.
All right, thanks so much.
Thank you, my friend.
All the best.
Coming up at 2 o 'clock this afternoon on all of this, an academic perspective from Professor Jeffrey Sachs.
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