Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Will They Work? | Peter St Onge
|
Time
Text
Generally speaking, other countries are putting a lot more tariffs on us than we've been putting on them.
Tariffs written out on paper, a lot of them are non-tariff barriers, so they'll block our imports by claiming some environmental or some health rule.
Many of them are VATs, which are a type of income tax or a type of sales tax that most countries in the world impose.
Those hit our goods if we sell stuff to France, but then France exempts its own products.
So there's a variety.
of barriers that countries put on us.
And for Europe, for example, they tax us at roughly 18% more than we tax them.
What Trump is doing is that he is very good at spotting the details of a negotiation.
OK, of understanding who holds which cards and then seeing whether he can get a better deal.
And when he looks at Europe, you know, the striking thing about really every one of our trade partners is that they need us a heck of a lot more than we need them.
So to give a flavor, something like one to two percent of the American economy is producing for export to Canada or to Mexico.
On the other hand, one fifth, 20 percent of the Canadian economy.
is producing for export to the US. One third of the Mexican economy is producing for export to the US. That means that we have massive leverage over these countries.
Now, we could just make them dance to entertain us, but specifically what Trump is interested in doing is getting them to lower those barriers.
And what he's saying is, if you get rid of your barriers, we'll get rid of our barriers.
But in the meantime, we're going to calculate how much we think you're tariffing us with those non-tariff barriers and the VAT tax and all this.
And we're going to put the exact same on you.
And so because the U.S. economy is so important, right?
Mexico cannot give up a third of its economy.
They'll have riots.
They can't do it.
And so what Trump is sort of doing is recognizing the enormous leverage we have over these countries.
Now, that's not even to speak of the military.
So there's a number of countries in the world that only exist because the American taxpayer covers their bills.
For military.
This is true of Europe.
It's true of Japan.
Korea.
Certainly it's true of Taiwan.
It is outrageous that any of these countries should have any trade barriers whatsoever against us, given what we give to them.
So Trump recognizes this.
I think the biggest shock of it has been why for the past 80 years has America been running around shining everybody's shoes when we always had 10 to 1 leverage over these countries.
You can debate perhaps there's something corrupt going on there that, you know, senators in the U.S. get sweetheart jobs when they leave office.
There may be quite a bit of that.
I hope Doge might look.
And I think they will.
But for the moment, what Trump is doing that's different from previous administrations is he's recognizing that.
He's saying to other countries, if you are going to tariff us, not just tariff, if you're going to do other outrageous things.
So, for example, Colombia didn't want to take back its illegal immigrants, criminal illegal immigrants.