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Aug. 29, 2022 - Dinesh D'Souza
50:01
THE FUTURE OF TRUTH Dinesh D’Souza Podcast Ep402
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This episode is brought to you by my friend Rebecca Walser, a financial expert who can help you protect your wealth.
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Coming up, the left is predicting the collapse of Trump's platform called Truth Social.
I'll tell you why that's completely bogus.
A new book contends that a handful of conservatives, me included, are responsible for ending the Reagan legacy.
I'm going to have a little fun with that fevered analysis.
And Biden is calling the MAGA Republicans fascists.
I'll remind you what fascism really means.
Economic strategist Rebecca Walser joins me.
We're going to talk about the state of the economy and what you can do to protect your money.
This is the Ganesh Jisoo show.
The times are crazy and a time of confusion, division, and lies.
We need a brave voice of reason, understanding, and truth.
This is the Dinesh D'Souza Podcast.
I have been very happy with the growth I've been seeing on Truth Social.
I started out on that platform with, well, I started out with very few followers at all.
And my following has grown not only steadily but rapidly.
I'm now at something like 1.4 million followers.
Now I'm not close to Trump, who's at 4 million followers.
But this platform, although it has been rolled out cautiously, step by step, I think Devin Nunes, the CEO of Truth Social, knew that he doesn't want this platform to be hacked.
He doesn't want it to be pulled down.
And so he's been moving it forward in a measured way, but nevertheless, there's been steady growth.
And so I see this article in Salon, which is basically talking about the bankruptcy of Truth Social.
Truth Social is headed for bankruptcy.
Now, this is Salon, and Salon has about the same credibility.
Well, when I think of the word salon as my barber.
So I take this with very large, many grains of salt, you could call it.
But then I read the article and I see there's nothing in the article that not only supports the headline, but even gives you cause for serious concern.
First of all, they point out that there is a dispute over billing between Truth Social and one of its vendors, a group called RightForge.
And there have been a couple of other news reports about this.
Basically, RightForge has been providing some web services, some web hosting for Truth Social, and RightForge claims that there's about a million dollars of invoices that are still due.
By the way, when you're dealing with billion-dollar enterprises, this kind of thing is not abnormal.
There could be a dispute over whether some of these services were provided.
There's an ongoing discussion about this.
This is not even something in litigation, just an outstanding invoice.
But I mean, such is the determination of the left.
They go, there's a million dollars of outstanding invoices.
Big deal. I mean, this is something that you could almost take, you know, my tiny movie company, D'Souza Media.
Oh, there is outstanding invoices.
So... Now...
I go on to read in Salon that they are now looking at the corporate reports that are filed by the Trump Media and Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition, which is the group that is kind of managing this Trump platform.
And you've got to realize that when you read these public reports, Notices.
These notices are supposed to provide all the cautionary notes about any company.
And you find this if you look at Apple, if you look at any other company, they always talk about the risks to any corporation.
What if, for example, people start Using, you know, phones less or not going as often to the movies.
That's obviously a risk for movie companies.
And so on. So these things are standard disclaimers that you find in the literature.
And yet Salon acts like they've never read a report.
And they're acting as though these are alarm bells.
So let me now read. In filing this week, Digital World Acquisition is now issuing warnings about what the future may bring.
The company warned that, quote,"...its business could be damaged if Trump becomes less popular." Or there are further controversies that damage its credibility.
Well, I mean, this is obvious.
If Trump were for, loses popularity, then obviously Truth Social will lose some of its popularity because Trump is one of the largest, you may say, magnetic forces drawing people to Truth Social.
In fact, it's the only place you can get sort of Trump unfiltered.
So that is obvious.
As for the controversy, this is nothing more than the left going, we're really trying to damage Trump.
And if we're successful, it's also going to hurt Truth Social.
The magazine goes on, Salon goes on to point out that in the past, in Trump's earlier dealings, there were companies, now they're talking not about media companies, but about things like construction companies.
Trump has typically had multiple companies, and some of them have filed for bankruptcy.
This is, by the way, nothing more than Trump doing...
In his own world, what I do in the movie world, which is we create independent LLCs or independent companies.
Each movie is a separate company.
And similarly for Trump, he would have a project that's going on in New Jersey.
That's one company. Another project going on in Las Vegas.
That's another company. So when you have multiple companies and some of them go bankrupt, this is just called market capitalism.
Not every project, even of successful entrepreneurs, succeeds.
So I'm reading through all this and I'm going...
You know, where's the beef?
Where's the reason to believe that somehow truth social may not be in existence?
And the answer is there is no beef and there is no such reason.
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There's a very interesting article in Politico called, Trump Didn't Kill Reaganism, These Guys Did.
And I start reading the article, and I'm like, who are these guys who supposedly killed Reaganism before Trump?
It turns out that it's Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich.
And, well, me.
We are apparently the notorious gang that killed off Reaganism even before Trump.
The article is an interview with a professor, a woman named Nicole Hemmer.
Nicole Hemmer is an academic who studies the right, the conservative side of the aisle, the Republicans.
And she has an upcoming book called Partisans, The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.
I'm evidently one of these.
And I told Debbie, I go, let's see if we can get Nicole Hemmer to come on the podcast.
It'd be fun to actually talk directly about these things because she's writing about a period that I, of course, remember well and was part of.
Now, Nicole Hemmer's theory in the book, and I'm only gleaning it from her interview, but it's a pretty in-depth interview with Politico, is that it's wrong to think of Trump as having created a new Republican Party.
What she's really arguing is that the new Republican Party created Trump.
There was a new Republican Party that was forged in the late 1990s and the early 2000s and that's the movement that brought Trump to the forefront.
So Trump articulated the views of this new movement but the new movement was created by people like former House Speaker Gingrich and Buchanan And of course, Nicole Hemmer, who was, by the way, never a fan of Reagan, is now sort of, and this is often a strategy of the left, you now pretend to be kind of a defender of Reagan, go, isn't it a pity that kind of conservatism died with Reagan?
And what we have now is evidently not conservatism in the Reaganite sense.
Nicole Hemmer goes on to say that what these people like Dinesh do today is they extol Reaganism and they fight Proclaimed to be followers of the Reagan movement, but they have been the architects of a kind of anti-Reaganism or this new MAGA Republican Party.
And there's a lot to say in this article.
I probably will talk about it today a little bit, and I might pick it up again tomorrow because she makes three or four key points I want to comment, and I'll probably only get to one of them today.
So, she begins by saying, this is Nicole Hemmer, even if Trump hadn't won the presidency in 2016, even if he hadn't won the Republican nomination, the changes in the Republican Party had taken place.
Now, what's she referring to here?
She says that this is how she defines Reaganism, the idea of an American engagement in the world.
What she seems to be saying is we are now in the opposite, a kind of American disengagement within the world.
And that is at least what the MAGA Republicans want.
The idea of an upbeat, optimistic conservatism.
And what she seems to be saying is what we have now is an advocacy of a kind of non-upbeat, non-optimistic, kind of darker conservatism.
And then she says, and a big tent Republican Party.
And evidently she's suggesting that those of us who are the architects of this new republicanism want a small-tent republican party.
Now, let me suggest on the face of it that none of this could be further from the truth.
First of all, While Trump criticized the aggressive deployment of US troops in fruitless wars that cost us blood and treasure, that's not the same as saying that America should be disengaged from the world.
Trump was not disengaged from the world.
Trump dealt regularly with our NATO allies, asking only that they pay their share of the NATO dues.
Trump engaged with China.
He engaged with the Islamic world.
So, engagement is a matter of recognizing who your friends and who your enemies are.
A critique of Biden foreign policy is that Biden treats our enemies like friends and our friends like enemies.
And so, no one is calling for a disengagement, second of all.
It's probably true that the mood today is less upbeat than it was under Reagan.
In part, it's because we're seeing the depredations of the Biden administration and of the Democrats.
We're seeing previously inviolable rights like free speech, freedom of religion, equal rights under the laws being trampled by this regime.
This is why the sort of, you may say, more ominous tone and the Republican Party, far from being a smaller tent, is a bigger tent than ever before.
In fact, Trump has made headway and Republicans are making headway now with groups like blacks, particularly black males and Hispanics, to an even greater extent than Reagan did.
And are doing so, by the way, on a platform that calls for building a wall and securing the border.
Reagan was actually not that ferocious about the issue of border security.
Maybe the situation was a little different then.
But nevertheless, while emphasizing border security, Republicans are making inroads in places like the south part of Texas, Which Reagan was able to make some gains there, but not as much as Trump.
Debbie makes the point.
She goes, I've never seen as many trucks.
There was Reagan support, but there were no Reagan trains in the Rio Grande Valley.
In the way that there have been Trump trains.
So, Nicole Hammer here, I think, misunderstands the way in which there is a new Republican Party, but it's not because we've abandoned Reaganism, but it's because we're applying Reaganism, if you will, to a completely different situation.
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We are back to the tedious epithet, fascism, being applied to...
Trumpsters and patriots and Republicans.
Joe Biden said something to the effect of, I don't mind the old-style conservative Republicans, but these MAGA Republicans are fascists.
Fascists. I have done a lot of work on this topic.
By the way, if you haven't or you don't have it or haven't read it, this is the book to get, The Big Lie.
It's not just about fascism.
It's also about Nazism.
It's called Exposing the Nazi Roots of the American Left.
It'll blow your mind because it goes into this topic in the kind of detail that you rarely see.
It takes on all the reasons why the left tries to pin the fascist tail on the Republican elephant.
It goes on to show how preposterous they are.
Things like, well, the Republicans are the party of nationalism.
The assumption, of course, being that nationalism is somehow a phenomenon solely of the right.
Whereas nationalism has come from the left as often as it has come from the right and famous nationalists like Gandhi or Mandela, Fidel Castro, Stalin.
Think of all these nationalists who were clearly, well at least for the most part, on the left.
I also did, by the way, a Prager University video that you should check out, and it's on the philosopher of fascism.
It's kind of interesting we all know the philosopher of Marxism, right?
That's Marx. But who was the philosopher of fascism?
Is it the case that fascism never had a philosopher?
Not at all. Fascism had a number of prominent intellectuals associated with the movement.
And the sort of philosopher par excellence of fascism was a guy named Giovanni Gentile.
He was the, Eminence Gris, the mentor, the inspiration for Mussolini.
And like Mussolini, Gentile came out of the Marxist movement.
Mussolini, by the way, was the editor of a Marxist journal.
These are socialists, and fascism came out of this socialist tradition.
By the way, I made this point before in the podcast, and I have a lot of detail to support it, all of it, in this book, The Big Lie.
Fascism emerged in Italy, but then there were fascist movements in a number of countries.
In Germany, in France, also in England.
Oswald Mosley was a prominent fascist in England.
And by the way, this guy was on the left wing of the Labour Party.
So, to a man, all the leading founders of fascism in all the major European countries, Belgium, France, England, Italy, Germany, were men of the left.
And typically of the far left.
Some of them broke with the left because they thought that the left in their countries wasn't left-wing enough.
And the core meaning of fascism is captured in something that the most famous fascists, by the way, the most famous fascist, It's not Hitler.
It's Mussolini.
Hitler was obviously, in some ways, you could say the founder of Nazism, which is a kind of variant of fascism.
It's fascism plus anti-Semitism.
The original fascism didn't really have anti-Semitism.
But here's Mussolini defining fascism.
Quote, everything in the state.
Nothing outside the state.
Nothing against the state.
So the state, centralized state power.
You have private entities, but they are subordinate to the centralized state power.
So at its core, fascism is about centralized state power.
And therefore, simply ask yourself the simple question, does this doctrine, everything in the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state, sound more like the MAGA Republicans?
Or the Biden Democrats?
Yes, exactly. Inflation is real.
The consumer price index is at a 40-year high.
Biden and his team keep denying it.
But inflation isn't going away.
And it doesn't go away because you deny it.
The recession is also real.
Again, they're denying it. And again, a recession doesn't stop being a recession if you stop calling it that.
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Guys, you've probably heard the name Rebecca Walser, and it's because she is one of the sponsors of this podcast.
But I'm delighted to have her on the podcast.
She is a wealth strategist.
She's a tax attorney. She's a best-selling author.
She has her MBA from the London School of Economics.
You've probably seen her on Newsmax or Fox Business or Yahoo Finance.
She also has a podcast.
She's the podcast host of Credits.
Crashes and taxes, challenging the status quo of crashes, taxes, and politicians.
Rebecca, delighted to have you on.
I thought it'd be really helpful to get your take.
We seem to be in a rocky place with this economy.
So let me start by just asking you, are you apprehensive about the direction in which we've come under Biden and the direction in which we seem to be going?
Yes. So, Dinesh, this is a lot of information, and the viewers of the audience might find it a little bit overwhelming, so I'll try to go through it as methodically and as possible.
But I do think that a lot of people need to wake up and realize what is actually happening because I feel like most people don't know, and they're certainly not hearing it from Wall Street for very obvious reasons.
So the first thing I'll say is that starting at the end of last year, when we were making our assessments for 2022, I really saw it as a macro change year to start with.
And really the reason for that, Dinesh, is if you go back and you look at the M1 money supply, which is put out by the Federal Reserve, the St.
Louis Fed every year, it's discontinued, but we still have an emulation.
But if you look at 2020, it was still being tracked Directly.
And you will look and you'll see from February of 2020, we went about from like about $14.97 to over $62.05.
That is in trillions of dollars, by the way.
And we almost 5X our money supply in circulation.
We increased it by over $5 trillion in five months between February and August of 2020.
Now, the Federal Reserve was very successful last year of framing that as transitory, and therefore they didn't have to be accountable for it.
When it started to become what we call entrenched in the economic world, or when it started to continue to persist, the persistency became an issue.
They could no longer just disregard and say transitory, transitory.
So that is when you saw the Fed get serious this year and start saying, Not only are we going to begin to increase rates, which everyone talks about, and that makes the front page of the news, but they also went from moving from accommodation, or what we call quantitative easing,
QE, and they reversed course, and starting this, you know, beyond March, we started moving to a QT, or quantitative tightening, where they're actually selling off MBS, or mortgage-backed securities, off of the Fed's $8.5 trillion balance sheet.
Now, what Jerome Powell did this past week, I did a podcast just about this, Dinesh, is he is literally at an unprecedented point.
This has never happened before in the history of America, where we have self-stimulated out of a global crisis, where we in America either printed or authorized $10 trillion to deal with that crisis, and the rest of the world printed $20 trillion in their domestic currencies to deal with the crisis.
We absorbed all of that currency and an exponentially fast pace globally.
And now we are dealing with the repercussions of that.
And inflation basically means that your dollars are worth less.
And to put it as simple as possible and talk about inflation.
There is a finite amount ever in the world of goods and services.
America is a service-based economy.
About 70% of our GDP is produced through services.
So we are a service-based economy.
We need people to travel. We need people to go to the business conferences.
We need them to go to the hotels.
We need them to go on vacation.
We need that. We need them taking Ubers.
We need them spending money.
So when they start to have to spend more money towards food, Energy and just covering their rent and thus money in spending, you'll start to see a very fast loss of GDP in this country because we're so service oriented.
But the ultimate factor changed.
So I already knew 2022 was going to be a change year.
But when Russia invaded Ukraine, believe it or not, that set off a historical series of events that we now Will not be able to unwind or undo Dinesh.
These are massively huge economic consequences.
And to put it as simply as I can, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the West, so we're talking about NATO, But mostly we're talking about the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, which is no longer a part of the EU, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
So, you know, you talk about, you hear the Five Eyes and those kinds of, the West basically sanctioned Russia out of the SWIFT international payment system.
The SWIFT system is a system of the West.
And when we kicked Russia out of that system, you have to understand this is at a time where Europe, about 57% of Europe's energy comes from Russia.
When we kick them out of using and being able to transaction in through SWIFT, we basically set off an event that has been 20 years in the making, and that is we pushed Russia to move towards the BRICS nations, which it's already a part of, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
We push them to very quickly tell Europe, you will not be able to buy energy outside of the ruble or gold, right?
And this set off a series of transactional situations where you had the Middle East, you have China, India, Saudi Arabia, and all of these nations trying to figure out, wait, we are not going to sell energy in US dollars for the first time since 1974.
The petrodollar, which gives the dollar an illusion of being backed by a hard asset.
We went off the gold standard in August of 1971.
Richard Nixon took us off completely and said, you can no longer exchange a dollar for gold.
So that's off the gold standard.
We had incredible inflation that followed because we had no hard asset back.
So Henry Kissinger in February of 74 went over and met with the king of Saudi Arabia and basically worked out this petrodollar deal where he said, listen, We will be your military.
The United States will be your military if you can coerce all of the OPEC-producing Asia and Russia agrees to sell energy only in US dollars.
And that went through in 74.
The petrodollar was birthed and dollar hegemony, the dollar as the single and sole reserve currency of the world, has been in effect since the 1970s and strongly in effect since the 1970s.
What has happened, Dinesh?
As we've pushed Russia out of the West, economically speaking, Russia and China announced in July of this year, 2022, that they have a formal reserve currency that they will be pushing forward.
We know that Russia and India are doing direct transactions in their domestic currencies, and we have a bunch of other nations that are moving towards BRICS, like Saudi Arabia, for example, which is alarming for us.
Like Egypt, many countries moving towards this multi-polarity world where you're no longer seeing the dollar as the sole reserve currency, but this other alternative that will be coming We'll be more of a multipolarity.
Now, this goes against completely the Great Reset and what they're trying, the global central bankers are trying to move us to the Great Reset, which basically, I don't know if Americans are aware, but Biden signed an executive order that basically puts us onto testing in beta form a central bank digital dollar in December of this year.
So what I'm trying to say in a nutshell, in a summary fashion is we are seeing the end Of the dollar as the sole reserve currency.
Jerome Powell has testified before Congress at least four times where he's alluded to that fact, or he said that the dollar does not have to be the sole reserve currency.
So he is acknowledging this is something that is coming.
What he's doing now and his speech that he said on Friday, he's between a rock and a hard place.
He can no longer stimulate or cut rates, which makes our market be as strong as it was the equity market.
I'm talking about the stock market.
He can no longer do that without imputing inflation, more inflation.
So he knows the analysis has been done.
That he has to get massive rate hikes for the Fed funds rate to really get the dollar and the strength of the dollar under control.
But what I will submit to you, Dinesh, is that this is a facade and that it is not real any longer because no longer do we have petro oil sales being denominated in dollars.
And that alone will lead 40% of the world to no longer need to buy U.S. dollars.
And that is a huge problem for us in America.
Let's take a pause, Rebecca.
We actually have a word coming up from, well, you, or from me about you and about Walser.
So let's take a pause.
When we come right back, I want to pick up on the two big themes you've just raised.
It's been really interesting to talk to Rebecca Walser and her trenchant analysis of what's going on.
She's talking really about a black swan market event that could be coming, an event that sort of comes out of nowhere, decimates your accumulated savings.
And look, we have interest rates going up, we have inflation skyrocketing, and so the obvious question is how to protect our money, how to get ahead of what's happening with the economy.
Now, this is not a time to wing it or go with a hunch.
You need a qualified expert on your side.
And it's pretty obvious from our conversation, by the way, two more segments to come, that I'm not that expert, but Rebecca Walser is.
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Yeah, typically, Rebecca, talk for a minute or at most two at a time just to keep a little bit of more back and forth.
Okay, here we go. I'm back with wealth strategist and tax attorney Rebecca Walzer.
We're talking about the, well, disturbing state of the, not just the U.S., but in some ways, the world economy.
Rebecca, I like to sort of summarize things so that people have a grasp of what you said and what it means.
I think you are making two points, and the first one is...
Massively promiscuous increases in the money supply caused largely by the Fed.
I assume that part of the purpose of doing this is to also grease the ability of the government to have control over all this money.
So that by itself has an inflationary effect.
And all of this occurred, as you said, in a very short space of time.
And then you made a second point, which was a little different.
And that is that the United States has been sort of the world's reserve currency now for at least 50 years.
And things are by and large denominated in dollars.
And that has all kinds of economic benefits for a country that gets to sort of play that role.
And you're saying that as a kind of self-inflicted wound, in other words, it wasn't that other people ganged up on us and created a new currency, we booted Russia, a massive energy supplier, out of our trading system.
So naturally, the Russians went with the Chinese, they went with an alternative system, and you're saying that that could, or maybe already has, spelled the end of the dollar as, you could call it the world's reserve currency.
Now, does that mean that we are in for harder economic times in this country?
And what does that mean to the ordinary person who says something like, well, how does that affect me?
Yeah, I mean, it's the end of an era.
You know, Dinesh, we've been the reserve currency since the 40s Bretton Woods, but we were backed by gold until the 70s.
So countries could always exchange dollars for gold in the United States, and that's really what preserved us.
We were a hard asset-backed currency.
When we came off the gold standard in 71, we had massive inflation.
That's the timeframe that you remember with that massive inflation, Volcker days, all those things.
And that's when Kissinger basically went and made the dollar have an quasi-asset back.
That's what we call the petrodollar.
So we've been enjoying, exactly as you said, this system for 50 years and it's over.
It's ended. And the only reason you haven't seen it yet, Dinesh, the only reason the dollar has not yet collapsed And the best analogy I can give you, and I heard this, I stole this from somebody.
He said, it's like going into, realizing you have to leave for a trip and you're going into the laundry room and you're like, oh, I forgot to put the clothes in the dryer.
I have to take the dirty clothes.
Which one is the best of the worst of the dirty clothes?
And so the world doesn't have a shining beacon currency to say, oh, it's not the dollar, it's the one.
It doesn't have the breadth, it doesn't have the depth.
We don't have an immediate alternative to the dollar as Russia and China are unveiling their reserve.
So people don't know where to put money.
And so the net asset flow globally in the United States is still positive to the dollar, which is making the dollar strong.
In other words, It because of its position that it's had for over 50 years as the world reserves stable currency people are assuming that it will continue to be but it will get to the markets and they will understand that the dollar is no longer backing up the oil sales it will no longer be bought like it has been bought every year because these countries don't need it any longer and that's where you will see the collapse of the dollar and that is a huge problem for all of us Dinesh because It basically means we're moving to a new currency system and the dollar will not be reigning supreme.
Rebecca, just to probe this a little bit more, what you're saying is that the primary oil producers are no longer beholden to the dollar system, right?
That they're now trading among each other in other currencies and they're also saying to the United States and the Europeans Don't think that you can pay us with dollars anymore.
You better pay us in rubles or you better pay us in gold.
And this now means that the dollar is no longer the universal currency that it has been.
And that's bad news, you're saying, for the dollar.
The public announcement may not have gone out.
We're in an illusion that the dollar is still holding.
But I assume part of what you're saying is that you can expect the dollar to lose value dramatically over the next, in the forthcoming period.
Yeah, I wish I wasn't saying this, but honestly, Janash, this is why Jerome Powell came out from Jackson Hole on Friday, the end of August here, and basically said, do not expect stimulus, do not expect interest rate cuts, do not expect accommodation.
In fact, we have to aggressively, and for as long as it takes, Tackle inflation.
And what that means in the analysis of the end of the day, we're at about a 1.5 to a 1.75 Fed funds rate right now.
We need to get to about a 4%.
That means we still have another, a lot more people paying.
And just to put one last little economic piece so you can understand the scope and the depth of what I'm talking about, Dinesh, we had since 2008 basically a Fed funds rate of 0 to 25 basis points.
For 14 years, all of the international bonds that have been issued have been based off of a dollar that low.
When you come around and in the scope of one year, start raising your rate so fast that you're going to go from a 25 basis points to, let's say, if they're trying to get to four.
Now, obviously, they're not going to get that done by the end of this year.
But it is going to be so painful for all of the financial system bonds that have existed and been put into place for the last 14 years.
And let's be honest, Everyone talks about the stock market and equities, but bonds run the international institutions of the world, and this is what the problem is.
So as this dollar collapses, and Jerome Powell's doing everything he can to keep it strong by continuing to let everyone know we have to raise rates, but as the world realizes that the dollar is no longer the sole hegemony reserve currency, then we are in for paying.
And the equity markets don't like interest rates raising, but they don't like Let's take a pause.
When we come back, I want to ask Rebecca Walser what you and I can do to protect ourselves against a troubling future.
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Feel the difference. I'm back with wealth strategist and tax attorney Rebecca Walser.
We're talking about the, well, troubling state of the US economy and about the future.
So Rebecca, you know, I mean, I've been in the country about 40 years.
By and large, I've kind of followed the advice of diversifying my portfolio, having some of it in real estate, the majority of it in stocks, a little bit of it in cash and reserves.
And my question is, given this analysis and forecast, which is, by the way, you're not just sort of conjecturing about the future, you're anchoring it in things that have already happened and that are happening now, what should I and what should our audience know about ways in which the traditional kind of savings and portfolio strategy might need to be different?
Well, I do think that everyone needs to prepare for a very violent end of the year.
And I mean violent in the terms of the market ups and downs.
And I'm talking about both the bond markets and the equity markets, but certainly the equity markets are not going to like what's coming.
I actually do see, unfortunately, this is It's kind of a misnomer when I say it because something that is defined by this is defined by not anticipating it, right?
It was unanticipated.
But I actually do see a black swan event occurring when I don't know if it's a World War III trigger, if China tries to go into Taiwan, if it's some kind of Russian At the National Security Council, the UN. I don't know what the trigger is, but I do feel a sense in all of the analysis that there will be some sort of triggering event this year.
And I do expect equities to, unfortunately.
And if you look, I'm not alone in this.
There's a lot of prognosticators that have been right in calling really big bottoms.
And I'm hearing from them the largest crash in the history of our country.
And I don't say that to scare anybody.
I say that to prepare everybody, right?
The one truth about money is that it is relative.
So if you say to me, I have 100,000, is that good or bad, Rebecca?
I don't know until I know that the richest guy has a million dollars and the poorest guy has a dollar.
And then I can give you a frame of reference on your 100,000.
And that's the point, is that your audience and your people that are listening and watching this podcast, they are going to have this knowledge and knowledge is power if it's followed by action.
And if they take actions to relatively secure their portfolio, I hate to say this, but in relation to everyone else that has no clue because they're listening to their advisor who works at some big Wall Street firm who's just saying, stay in.
You can't time the market.
If you get out now, you'll miss the upside.
That's what Wall Street's telling people because they need people to stay invested in Wall Street.
And we understand that. And I'm a fan of Wall Street.
I'm just not a fan of this time of Wall Street.
And so I would suggest That people get personalized advice with a professional, but as a general guidance for right now, because of what I'm seeing, I would suggest minimizing equity positions and bond positions, looking at potentially a little bit of a gold or silver buy as a hedge, because I expect that these metals that are being manipulated to the downside right now are going to untether when these events happen, and we will see precious metals jump dramatically.
So that could be a hedge.
Rebecca, you said something a little startling.
I mean, obviously, if we think back to the late 1920s, the early 1930s, we saw markets drop 70%, in some cases, 80%.
Now, the market went back and forth, so it wasn't a single drop, and it didn't occur over a single day, of course.
But nevertheless, equities were worth less than half of what they were at the peaks of the 1920s, and it took...
Until the 1940s.
In other words, there was a long period before you kind of got your money back, even if you hung in there.
So some of the doctrines we've been hearing of late, equities go up, ride out the market, be patient, be a long-term investor.
I mean, I'm 61 years old, so I am a medium.
I can stay in the market, but I'm not going to stay in the market forever.
And so I think what you're saying is...
Take a look at some of the fundamentals, and when the fundamentals are out of kilter, you might want to take some action.
Yeah, and I wish, it's not a comfortable message for me, Jess, because I love the market.
I love equities, right? But at the end of the day, if you have to talk about micro versus macro, it's a no-brainer.
Macro will wipe out your micro.
No one cares what Apple does at the end of this quarter if what happens is happening.
And, you know, when we put it in as a frame of context as the largest ever, Dinesh, there's a reason for that.
You go back to the 30s, you even go back to the 90s.
You know, China didn't join the World Trade Organization until 2001.
We didn't start really globally outsourcing everything to Asia until 2000.
So really, the only market correction that we've had since modern era outsourcing is 2008, 2009.
We in the United States call that the Great Recession.
The world calls that the global financial crisis because it set off the austerity measures in Greece, which was failing.
We had all those things happening with the EU at that time.
It was a big mess.
So what we have now, Dinesh, is not only do we have global intricacy between all economies, but we have global intricacy between all currencies.
So when Russia got kicked out of SWIFT and then moves to the BRICS nations to come up with an alternative, we're talking about something that affects over half of the world that fast.
So unfortunately, Dinesh, as the strength of the dollar becomes realized, We are going to have big problems and it could easily be the largest of the biggest problems because we are so globalized now and everything is really international.
Rebecca, these are very sobering warnings for most people and very valuable advice.
Love to have you back and thank you very much for joining the podcast.
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We are at the very beginning of Homer's great epic called the Odyssey, and the first word of the Odyssey is the word andra.
So andra means man, man.
And it's worth contrasting the first word of the Odyssey with the first word of the Iliad.
Now, the first word of the Iliad, you might remember, but I'm about to remind you, is anger, rage, menis.
And just as menis, or anger, describes the theme of the Iliad, Which is the anger of Achilles and the consequences of that anger for this ongoing battle between the Greeks and the Trojans.
Similarly, the opening word of the Odyssey, Andra, tells you this is going to be the story of a man.
One man. And that one man, of course, is Odysseus.
Now... Odysseus starts out as not being a singular kind of only man, but he starts out as being a member of an army.
But the way Homer sets it up...
The army, some of them make it back to Greece.
Many of them are killed. Some of them are killed at sea on their way back home.
And only this one man is left.
Here is the line from the opening lines of the Odyssey.
All the other Greeks who had survived the brutal sack of Troy sailed safely home to their wives except this man alone.
So Odysseus is out there.
But he's without his men.
And the story of the Odyssey is the story not just of a journey home, but it's kind of a story of survival.
Odysseus is trying to basically stay alive and return to his family and return to his kingdom, which is called Ithaca.
Now, there have been stories in Western civilization about solitary men who go on journeys.
Think of the Pilgrim's Progress.
This is a kind of, to some ways, literal but also spiritual journey.
You have Jason going after the Golden Fleece.
You have Lancelot going in search of the Holy Grail.
You have...
Aeneas going on a journey that will lead to the founding of Rome.
Notice that Odysseus' journey is not like any of these.
He's not after something.
He is trying to do nothing more than the basic task of just getting home.
Getting home. But the question raised at the very beginning of the Odyssey, and I mentioned this on Friday, is Homer has a problem here because Odysseus is getting home or trying to get home without his men.
His men have all been lost or killed.
Now, some of them, of course, were killed at Troy, but a number of them were also killed on the way home with Odysseus.
So how does this so-called leader, Odysseus, Try to make it home.
Where are his men? What kind of a leader is he that loses all his men along the way?
Now, Homer is aware of this problem, and so right at the beginning he gives a sort of initial tantalizing explanation of what happened to the men.
He says, and how he worked to save his life and bring his men back home.
So the idea is Odysseus was trying to get all these men home.
He failed, and for their own mistakes, fools.
They died, they ate the cattle of the sun god, and the god kept them from home.
So, This is an episode we'll see later in the Odyssey, but right away Homer's telling us that, look, it's not Odysseus' fault that the men aren't with him.
They did something really reckless, really foolish, and as a result of eating the cattle of the sun god, Helios.
There was sort of a divine revenge on these men.
They lost their lives.
They never made it home.
This is how Odysseus, although he tried to bring them home, nevertheless, here he is alone, now trying to get back.
Odysseus' name, interestingly, is not mentioned in the opening lines the way that Achilles' name is mentioned right in the beginning of the Iliad.
The son of Peleus, Achilles, and the anger of Achilles, right away.
Here, what we have is a man.
Now, we kind of know who he is.
He's established. He's the man who sacked Troy.
Well, who was that? That was Odysseus.
He's the man who was buffeted from one place to another.
This is Odysseus. So, people know who he is, and yet Odysseus' name only appears a little further down, around line 23 or 24 of the Odyssey.
We finally recognize that we're dealing with the great hero, one of the great heroes of the Trojan War.
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