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March 6, 2024 - Doug Collins Podcast
22:06
Super Tuesday Breakdown
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, welcome.
It's Wednesday after Super Tuesday.
We'll call it Super Duper Wednesday Friday, or whatever you want to call it today.
But anyway, folks, glad to have you on the podcast.
Super Tuesday last night, a lot of states, same results that most of us expected to start with.
We'll get into it after the break.
We'll talk about Trump, we'll talk about Biden, we'll talk about the rest going on.
I am, as you know by listening to this podcast, I am not one that builds hype around campaigns.
I believe in truth, I believe in looking at it honestly, and saying where you've got issues, where you don't have issues, and where something's going to come around.
Every once in a while, you always have an outlier.
You have something that doesn't fit the mold.
We'll probably see that in this election as well.
But the rules of politics are pretty clear, and the rule of people's behavior is pretty clear.
So let's dig into it this morning.
We're going to talk some specific results.
We'll talk some other things going on with this and just get you caught up for the day before you hear all the mainstream media and their Spend that they're going to have, I want you to hear from first, just as we just take an honest look at last night at Super Tuesday.
So right off the break, we'll be right back.
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Okay, let's start off with the main ones, and we may spend a little bit of time here, but last night was more to me than just the presidential primaries.
And I know that that sounds maybe, oh my God, how can you say that, Doug?
You know, it was the presidential, you had Trump, you had Biden, you had all these people.
Well, last night was settled way before yesterday.
Okay, the Trump's wins were expected, but Vermont went a little bit different, but not unexpected.
Vermont has shown a propensity to vote alternatively in Republican elections as it is.
Also, you had a businessman that has beat Joe Biden in American Samoa.
When you look at this last night, there was a few things that stuck out.
But let's break this down because here was the narrative last night that was being painted on TV and the mainstream media, especially the cable networks and especially from the liberal side of the conservative side of it.
Let's just break this down.
Number one, Haley's time is over.
Nikki Haley is done and it is my understanding today that she is going to be getting out.
You'll be hearing about that all day today.
The question will be is if she endorses Donald Trump, it does not look like she is going to at this point, which would not be surprising given the rhetoric of her campaign in the last three to four weeks.
That may get better as time goes on because I think Haley's, at some point her team has to realize that the last few weeks have not been good for the potential of her turning around and trying to run in 2028. She did not, I believe, personally contrary to almost every other You know, never Trump or others out there opinionated.
Nikki Haley did not find a trough of voters that I think will inherently stay away.
I will say this.
If she's found 20 to 30 percent of Republicans who will not Show up in the fall and vote for Donald Trump, then yeah, that's a huge issue and the elections would be over.
I just don't think that's going to happen.
I think there are 20-30% out there who would have rather had someone else.
I mean, you can see even social media influencers, you see people on discussion who was in favor of DeSantis or they were in favor of others, who have all come around and said, if I'm given a choice, I'm going to vote and I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden.
So this...
Idea that is often floated every four years that there's massive divisions within parties and that there are shiftings.
There are shiftings that go on in people as they go forward.
But at the same point in time, they are...
Not the massive switches that you would normally see or that you would expect to hear from pundits.
There's not 30 or 40% of the Republican Party not going to vote for Donald Trump.
And I know there's the exit polling questions about if he was, you know, if he was indicted or convicted, would that change your opinion?
And 20 or 30% said it would.
Wait till November.
Wait till see where it is at and what he's been, you know, if there was a conviction, what the conviction was for and how it was playing out in the courts.
I mean, that's all there.
So I say that to just really lay the groundwork for what I have been saying here for a long time is the longest general election In our modern campaign history.
Okay, now we're sitting at the 1st of March.
This is in all sincerity been a general election race ever since the 1st of February.
But now even the mainstream media and even the most diehard of those who didn't want to see Donald Trump or Joe Biden is now recognized that this is the rematch that is coming.
In looking at that, so what does that mean?
That means that last night, Donald Trump did not even mention Nikki Haley in his speech at Mar-a-Lago after the Super Tuesday.
He didn't even mention.
He's already focused on Biden.
By the time midnight struck last night in the Biden campaign, it leaked, quote, leaked a Five-page campaign memo about how Donald Trump has split the party, how Donald Trump can't get elected, never mentioning, which you wouldn't expect because it's a leaked document for a specific purpose, any of the problems that Joe Biden has.
And while we're at the Joe Biden problem, I'm going to address this uncommitted problem.
He has a problem right now with voters when they have the opportunity to be The Palestinian issue, the pro-Hamas groups, the ending of the war in Gaza, the issues with Ukraine.
I mean, there's a lot of issues out there that have forced liberals to feel like they're not being heard, especially on what they were calling a ceasefire, to be adequately represented in the administration.
Okay, this is the time that you do that.
Joe Biden is under no He's under no presumption of losing a primary.
He's under no presumption of not being able to go anywhere except to the nomination and be nominated and stand on the ballot in November.
So that's just where we're at with that.
What these voters are doing is say, hey, Joe, listen to us.
You need us.
Now, here's an interesting point of view that you have to take into account.
These are voters that have an issue.
That they have felt neglected on.
This is not a personality issue, this is not mean tweets, and I don't like the way Donald Trump talks about people, which is a different issue.
This one is a systematic issue with Muslim voters and with the very progressive side of the Democratic Party that says, Joe Biden, you've betrayed the left who puts you into office, and a ceasefire has to happen, otherwise we're withholding votes.
Normally, if it's just, I don't like the other candidate, I voted for somebody else in the primary, you typically see those people come back around and vote for the Republican or the Democrat at the end of the day in November.
It is ideological voters, and there are some on the Republican side.
That's the Never Trump group.
That ideologically just say, I cannot vote for Donald Trump.
Just like these uncommitted, there'll be many of them saying, I cannot vote for Joe Biden.
The question becomes, how many are those?
How many of those are what we call hardcore true believers that say, I am not about to put my vote towards somebody that I just have a historically bad And I think that's going to be the big issue that you're going to see in polling.
What we're finding, though, in the polling right now, and let's just put this on the Republican side.
Donald Trump is winning by large margins among Republican voters.
And yes, if there's alternative people, many people always take an alternative vote, even if they'll end of the day vote for Donald Trump.
And I think that's what's going to happen here.
The same way will be true for Joe Biden and these uncommitted votes.
The question will be is if you have 45 and 45, which is a rough split of the Democratic and Republican voters at this moment, 45 percent I'm being very generous here.
Hear me clearly.
I'm being very generous with 10% that are, quote, swingable.
Now, the question will be is out of that 10%, I do not really truly believe that there is The vast independent swingable vote that cannot be predicted.
I believe that there's a prediction factor to these independent, quote, swing voters in how they vote.
I think it's the rarity, and in talking to folks, and we've had the...
Pollsters here on this podcast.
It is a rarity for someone who will vote left one election, right one election, left one election, right one election, or right two election and left two election.
Those are the rarity, okay, of those independent voters.
And then I would venture to say they're not ideological, they're issue orientated.
So I think there's an issue that drives them in that vote.
So, out of those 10%, I think you could probably find, it depends on how many are, quote, saying that they're uncommitted or independent in this, and they have either right-leaning tendencies or left-leaning tendencies.
And then you throw into that 10% group the unknowns of what happens in immigration, I think.
We've talked about this about a month or two ago on the podcast.
What are those outliers that will determine this presidential race?
The first being, I think, immigration.
Immigration last night.
And by the way, MSNBC, I know you don't listen to this podcast.
Maybe somebody will pass it along to some of you up there who have just the willingness to just be completely ignorant on national television.
But when Jen Psaki and Rachel Maddow and all make fun of folks why immigration matters in Virginia and West Virginia, where you've had young girls raped by illegal immigrants, Aliens who came across the border in Georgia when you've had Lakin who was murdered by an illegal immigrant down here.
You have fentanyl crisis and everything else.
You look rather ridiculous sitting there laughing about what the border is of Virginia to West Virginia and not taking these seriously.
As I saw basically a Democrat post A person on Twitter last night basically said, this is the way you lose elections, and it's exactly the way you lose elections.
So keep doing it.
I hope you continue to make fools of yourself, because that's exactly what you're doing.
In this case, Democrats and Republicans see an open border, and they have a problem with Joe Biden.
That's why you see the polling like you're going.
You see why Donald Trump is ahead in many of the polls.
That's why you see young people who are...
You know, turning toward Donald Trump in numbers that flip, literally flip the numbers in 20%, 30% swings from just 2020 and Joe Biden and Donald Trump and now favoring Donald Trump over Joe Biden.
It's the hypocrisy of an administration who continually sends Grant and Jean-Pierre to the microphone to either tell stories that people, even the press, don't buy.
I'm trying to convince Americans that there is a different outcome of this.
So what does all this lead?
I think the leading part here for those listening to the podcast is this.
For conservatives, which is what this podcast is designed for and who we send it out.
Conservatives, there's a long road to November.
And if we as conservatives and Donald Trump as our nominee and down the ticket don't focus like a laser on the issues of immigration, of families, of education and economy and how those all fit together and how the country is in the world and is standing and how we keep our country safe, safe, if we focus like a laser on those kind of things, then Joe Biden has a real hard time.
Because when you're comparing incumbents, and that's what we're sort of going to be having here, you have a four-year incumbent, you have a three-and-a-half-year incumbent who are going to be touting their messages to the American people.
Donald Trump's message of economic prosperity, less regulations from federal government, a Supreme Court and justice who interpret the law and not make the law when you have tax conditions that encourage business and kept us going through what would become one a Supreme Court and justice who interpret the law and not make the law when you have You Those are the kind of things that do matter.
When the immigration border was closed and for Joe Biden to say that it's a Republican's problem, people know that in the first A few days, he rescinded every one of the Trump immigration orders that he calls the immigration flow to slow to a trickle.
He can't run from that.
Joe Biden cannot run from that.
They're doing everything they possibly can right now, but they can't run from it.
It is their, right now, their Achilles heel, their kryptonite, whatever you want to call it.
Just like they believe abortion and life are going to be issues for Republicans.
But I think finally Republicans have woke up to this fact that You know, the country agrees with us on 78% of the terms that in some way abortion ought to be restricted, whether you believe in complete ban or you believe in a 16-week ban or whatever.
Even states that are more liberal have passed Weak bans, you know, terminate bans on 20 weeks or 16 weeks on abortion.
If you paint or are able to get Democratic candidates on record of saying they support unlimited access to abortion up to 40 weeks, they are out of step with the mainstream of America, and that will not be the winning ticket that they think it's going to be.
Now, we've got a lot of issues that we need to deal with, and conservatives have got to deal with a better concept of protecting life and helping life, not only from the womb, but to natural death.
We've got messaging issues that need to happen there.
But Joe Biden is definitely playing from a hand that says he has to be More aggressive in trying to refute his own record, which is very difficult, but also he has to be able to get up in front of a group and actually do it.
That's where they have a problem on the Democratic Party.
Joe Biden is not the messenger that he was.
He wasn't very good at it four years ago, but even better, going back 10 or 15 years ago when Joe Biden was on top of his political game.
They need that Joe Biden, and that Joe Biden just doesn't exist anymore.
So, in looking at this going forward, we're started.
The gates open.
Haley is now out.
The two presumptive nominees are there.
That'll be finished within the next week or so, and we'll see how it all turns out.
But I did want to hit on a couple of things that I think are going to be very interesting.
Texas has been going through a very much a strife in the party down there with the lieutenant governor, with the governor, with the attorney general and the impeachment of the attorney general that didn't go.
It was acquitted.
A lot of backing on the governor, backing the others, backing and really last night in the state.
House, State Senate races down there.
The incumbents had a tough night.
There's a lot of them pushed into runoffs that they've never been pushed into runoffs, including, I believe, the Speaker of the House was pushed into a runoff.
It'll come up in May.
That's going to be worth watching as we go forward into that.
The U.S. House, in the congressional primaries, nothing really of interest there.
But it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.
In May, when these races now go to runoffs and how those actual pale out.
State of Alabama had one of the few, and you rarely see this, a member-on-member election.
You see it around redistricting every 10 years, so you'll see member-on-member elections.
And Jerry Carl Barrymore out in South Alabama.
Jerry Carl lost that to Barrymore.
Very more conservative of the two candidates.
Won that by a couple of percentage in a race now.
And so, you know, here's two members that have not been in Congress very long, and one of them's career is now over.
Because they were put into the same district and had to run.
Sheila Jackson Lee had to run last night.
She ended up winning.
At least last count I had, she was winning her primary.
There was a lot of thought that she may have had difficulty in winning back her seat after she got beat so badly in the Houston mayor race, but she ended up winning.
Someone who's actually been on this program before, I served with him in Congress, he's running again for Congress, former Congresswoman Mark Walker in North Carolina.
He has been in a runoff up there, so you've got another runoff situation for him trying to come back.
As we go forward.
California, again, let me just say this.
California, there's a lot of folks saying, look at how much Steve Garvey pulled.
Adam Schiff ended up winning the total jungle primary, but Steve Garvey was able to push Katie Porter into retirement, along with Barbara Lee, which is a good thing for...
America, especially from the positions that they took in Congress and the things going on with them.
But now you've got Adam Schiff's on a glide path to become the senator from the state of California.
Garvey would take a, frankly, a miracle to pull off a win there.
Adam Schiff and SPAC spent millions of dollars trying to boost Garvey to get him above.
we get Republicans to turn out so that Garvey would be the Republican nominee, which makes it a lot easier in the very blue state of California to elect Adam Schiff as the next senator from there.
So these are all things that went on last night.
A lot of stuff to talk about that we're going to digest over the next few weeks here on the podcast.
But wanted to just leave you out there.
But I wanted a statistic.
So for those who don't believe that money and politics are still together, There were two House districts.
Now, these are state House districts in Texas that well over a million dollars were spent in those elections alone.
These are House districts around Fort Worth, Dallas area, but they spent over a million dollars in these elections.
That's an unheard of amount of money.
From 10, 15 years ago, that just didn't happen.
And now you're seeing this trickle down into the...
The state house races in Texas being one where they've had that going back and forth here of this battle between the upper echelons of the GOP there.
I think we didn't see anything last night that would show that Ted Cruz is in any trouble of not winning his seat again in Texas for the Senate.
So lots going on, but there's just a tidbit of it so you can go out and talk about it today and we'll look forward to the next time we meet and discuss these results.
Have a great day.
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