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Jan. 8, 2024 - Doug Collins Podcast
25:55
The President and the House
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
All right, everybody.
Welcome back to the podcast.
Just last week, we did our first of the look-aheads, fear for the 2024 campaign.
That is the Senate races.
We knocked down 10 different states in which they are toss-ups or maybe lean Republican.
Also, though, or lean to a toss-up, which I think they're lean Republican and Democrats are not going to have the chance.
That's Texas and Florida, the Rick Scott race, the Ted Cruz race.
I think both of them are going to win re-election.
We'll be close.
There'll be a lot of money spent in each of them at the end of the day.
I don't see those as flippable seats for the Democrats, which puts them in a very tough position because at least three to four of the Senate races are very flippable.
In fact, one is pretty much of a certain.
That's West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania are all Very realistic flippable seats with Montana and Ohio being the better of those two, Pennsylvania coming in after that.
I think Nevada is a possibility.
Arizona, when it gets shook out to see who's actually running there, will be your next big part.
But we're going to get into...
The House and presidential races will also play a part of this this year as we move forward.
And as we go through the year, look at governor's races in some states and others that could affect turnout, issue orientated with abortion, with border and other things.
So we'll look at these as we go forward.
Together here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
But right after the break now, we're going to discuss the House, go through some of the things that went up last year in the House, and then see what chances Republicans have to either maintain a small margin of majority or even maybe possibly enlarge that.
I will say a little teaser here.
This one is going to get interesting.
Democrats have their best chance in some of these seats due to some issues we're going to discuss of possibly flipping the House in this next cycle.
Republicans have got to be vigilant in these House races as we go forward.
So right after the break, let's get into the House races and the presidential race.
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All right, we're back.
First off, let's discuss just the overall nature of what's going on, and that being the presidential race being over the top of all of the races that we're going to talk about.
This is a turnout-heavy general election.
The races for president always tend to be the years in which Turnout is heaviest because there are people literally out there.
And if you're one of them, I really wish that you would take the initiative to vote in all the elections.
But there are people who only vote in presidential years.
They'll only come out and vote for president, for Republican, Democrat.
That's all they'll ever do.
And they don't come out for the off-year Senate races, House races, and others that many of the states find themselves in.
So you're dealing with several things that make this an interesting year Not only in those Senate races that I spoke of last week, but also in the House races that I'm going to talk about today, because this presidential race and the tones of the presidential race are going to be important as we look ahead to seeing what actually...
Kind of turnout, how momentum and all shifts and wanes as determined by the presidential candidates.
So let's look at it right now.
First week in January, the Republican candidates who are still in are still in.
You have Donald Trump, who is frankly the presumptive nominee right now based on polling and based on the things that we're seeing across the country.
From now till March 5th, which is I think Super Tuesday, This race will be over.
I truly believe it will be, and I think Donald Trump will be the nominee just because of the inherent advantages that he has, the fact that he has a base of 30 to 45 percent, depending on which state you're in, that we're going to vote for him no matter what.
None of the other candidates have that.
In fact, the most that a candidate other than Donald Trump could claim is 10 to 15 percent hard vote for, and that's going to be still 20 points or more less than Donald Trump.
The others that are still in there, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson is still there for some unknown reason, but he is still running.
Really, this is going to break down to this.
Ramaswamy ran a campaign that energized folks for the stuff that he said, but never really was able to move past the contradictions in a lot of what he said.
And that's not to be harsh, it's just being honest that this is a candidate who, at times, Chased clicks, it appeared, more than he chased votes.
And I get the idea.
We hear this a lot now.
I'm the outsider.
You've got to have radical ideas.
But when you give contradictory answers on things such as foreign policy, even domestic policy, and others, people...
Have a legitimate, I'm not sure about you statement.
Vivek has, I think, a bright future.
It'll be interesting to see if he can get more and more focused in his campaign efforts if he chooses to run again.
I just don't see him, you know, making it past, you know, really Iowa or anywhere else past this.
He can do it on his own wealth, but it's not going to affect the difference.
Then you got Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis, when first brought out, He was going to be the nominee.
It was just assumed he would take down Donald Trump.
He had been re-elected as governor in the state of Florida by this overwhelming majority.
He had taken over Democratic counties.
Everything was going good.
And then Ron DeSantis decided to play coy for five months.
And during that time, Donald Trump framed him, named him, and beat him.
Bottom line.
Framed him, named him, and beat him.
And that's the name of the game in politics, especially in primaries.
You frame the issue, you frame the candidate that you're running against, and the terms that you want to frame him.
You name him, you tell the voter exactly what the problems are, and you name the problems, and then you beat him.
And I think that's exactly what happened.
We're a week or two weeks away from Iowa and Ron DeSantis is looking, he's slipped actually to fourth in some polls.
He's a distant third, a distant second in every other Iowa caucus.
They're praying for a miracle in Iowa.
But when, let me just say this, when your campaign starts talking about...
Poll numbers not being accurate.
Wait for this mysterious flood of people to show up on Congress Night.
Could it happen?
Yeah, I'm not going to say it can't.
But when that's where you're talking points, typically that's coming from a campaign that is losing.
Never Back Down was the Super PAC set up to promote Ron DeSantis, and they have spent...
Hundreds of millions of dollars in trying to do so and basically all have but folded now.
They quit buying ads the last week.
They're not buying any ads going into the caucus night.
The campaign is doing very little among ads.
They're making business out there.
But you can just see a general defeat thought many times among the DeSantis campaign.
I know Ron DeSantis.
I've worked with him when he was in Congress.
I think he does have a lot of You know, good ideas that did work in Florida, but he's up against Donald Trump, and Donald Trump knows how to campaign, and Donald Trump is the momentum gainer and winner in this election up to this point.
So it's going to be, you know, he just doesn't have a lane.
And then his political style is just so unlike what Americans are looking for right now.
They're looking for charisma.
They're looking for, you know, somebody who can passionately discuss things with them and make them excited.
And Ron just, you know, DeSantis, as the governor, has just not made that connection yet.
You have Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley...
She is the darling of the media, especially the liberal media who want to find a replacement for Donald Trump.
The reality, though, is the closest she is is in New Hampshire, and she's still pretty much double digits down in New Hampshire.
She's second or third at best, most likely in Iowa, down 30 to 40 points.
She is then going into South Carolina, Nevada, Down by multiple double digits in those states.
It's hard to see a path for DeSantis, a legitimate path for DeSantis and Haley after New Hampshire.
Both of them, I think, have put everything they have for DeSantis.
It's Iowa.
For Haley, it's...
New Hampshire and then just the past week with her slavery answer or lack of answer and then the repeated problems developed out of her clarification has caused others to maybe say this is not a viable alternative that we thought it may have been.
Chris Christie has one hope, one hope alone.
That's New Hampshire.
If he could somehow pull up an upset in New Hampshire, which polls do not show happening, or he gets in second with a stronger showing, Keeps him there.
The problem is the Haley-Christy voter is the same voter.
And again, when you split that vote, it puts both of them at disadvantage.
And I think the Haley folks had hoped Christy would be out by now.
He's not out.
He will not get out after Iowa.
He will stay in through at least New Hampshire.
And for Haley, that pretty much At this point, dooms her trying to pull an upset over Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
And even if she did somehow pull out a small victory in New Hampshire, she's coming into Nevada and South Carolina in Super Tuesday, in which her poll numbers across the rest of the country are not there.
Now, what they depend on is that they come into the race, they get momentum out of a win or a strong second, and that carries them to other states.
But remember, this is Donald Trump right now, and there's a base out there that just supports him.
And it's not like any other election at this point as you go forward.
So when you look at those main ones, Donald Trump has a path to win Iowa, win New Hampshire, win Nevada, win South Carolina, and then run a muck on Super Tuesday, in which he will win most every state through the South by large margins, that there is a legitimate way to have this wrapped up before The first week of March, by the end of that week, that it could be wrapped up.
That actually plays well for all those.
And this is one of the reasons why you saw Jack Smith pushing to get clarification on appeals process so that he can start his case as soon as possible.
Because the cases are already looked upon as political election interference.
They're going to be even more so if Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.
That's just the plain and simple fact of it.
Joe Biden, on the other side, the only way Joe Biden is not on the ballot is Joe Biden decides he doesn't want to be on the ballot.
And don't play this idea that Dean Phillips or anybody else is going to win a primary.
It's just not there.
The Democratic Party has it set up where they can choose their nominee.
If you don't believe it, ask Bernie Sanders.
Bernie actually was the victim of that in 2016 with Hillary Clinton.
Hillary Clinton folks had found Their way to make her the nominee.
And at the same point, they would attack anything that got close to Hillary running for president.
So you're going to see the same thing here.
They're going to protect Joe Biden.
Joe Biden's biggest issues, and we're going to talk about this much more after the primaries are settled.
Joe Biden has an economy that people don't like.
He's not likable in the sense that they feel like he is old and not in touch with the world around him.
And then you have the real issues that people are paying more for groceries, people are paying more for gas, people are paying more for houses and loans and all these kind of things that will come back.
And many, many times the Real issue of November is the economy.
Do I feel like the country's in the right direction?
And if you were going on that against Donald Trump, who had a clear vision, who actually did pass tax cuts, whose economy was booming, people had worked, the gas prices were cheaper, inflation was basically non-existent, it's going to be a very much contrast from Donald Trump saying, here's what I did, here's what he did, which would you prefer?
I think that's going to be the basis as we turn this thing out on the presidential side.
So right now it's all shaping up to be a Trump-Biden rematch.
And most polls are showing that if that be the case, then Donald Trump will be not only the 45th president, he'll be the 47th president as well.
Now, let's turn to the House, and we're not going to get into a lot of names in the House.
We'll do that as we get closer, but there are seats, there are 435 seats in the House.
It's tough for the Democrats to try and overcome this, mainly because of just the lack of flippable seats.
Now, they have worked themselves back into a much closer possibility by the redistricting panel in New York, In essence, taking out six Republican seats.
Now, Republicans can still possibly win those seats, but it was drawn in such a way that Democrats should be favored in those seats.
So looking at this, there's seats picked up there.
There's one seat picked up in Alabama.
They tried to pick one up in Georgia.
Georgia's legislature redrew the maps, met the judge's intention.
Those were turned back.
It doesn't seem to be at this point a discussion on really Is the maps legal because the judge has already said they're legal?
You're not going to pick up a state, another congressional seat for Democrats in Georgia.
You will in New York and Alabama if those maps are holding like they are.
North Carolina did a redistricting which actually gave Democrats defeats of two or three seats.
So if you see sort of the right now, the redistricting power plays that are being going on, and this comes from the Obama Eric Holder school of thought.
It makes it possible for Democrats, but it doesn't give them a definite path to majority as we go here.
So these are going to be the big races as we look at it.
And really, as you look ahead, these can be the last, in the next couple of races, the last big races that you're going to have for all the seats in places like California, New York, Illinois, where they're going to actually be losing seats, it looks like, due to the census and the changing demographics. it looks like, due to the census and the changing
And you're going to have places like Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Florida, gaining multiple seats in some of those states and single seats and others that will be plugged into the 2030 census as we go.
So, you know, The Republicans control the chamber with a very narrow majority.
Ten seats toward the end of when they came out, the party holds held at 1.222.
Democrats have had 212. However, since then, we are down to 220 after getting rid of George Santos and Kevin McCarthy.
And then Bill Johnson is scheduled to leave in the end of September.
So there is a distinct possibility we could get down to two-seat majority, not a three-seat majority, and be sitting at 219 going forward here.
Now, although that is...
If you were a Democrat, you'd think, okay, great, we got a chance here.
Eh, hold the brakes just a little bit here, pump the brakes, because the makeup of the toss seats are not completely in the Democrats' favor.
Right now, most political forces, I'll use Cook as an example, they list 24 complete seats as complete toss-ups, and among those 24, nine are held by Democrats, 15 are held by Republicans.
So you would have to run the table in many ways to bring it back.
Now, seats that are going to be interesting for Democrats.
Democrats in Colorado have an interesting seat in the 8th.
Cabrera's seat there.
You've got Jared Golden in Michigan.
The open seat, we mentioned this during the Senate races, Elise Slotkin's seat is open.
It is a possibility for Republicans if they can get their stuff together up there.
North Carolina's Don Davis.
And also, this will update, because North Carolina has changed that a lot.
A couple of the Democrats have already said they're not running.
Republicans will pick up those seats.
You got a Democrat in New Mexico second.
Ohio 13th.
Again, possible Democrat.
Losses here.
And then, of course, you have Pennsylvania.
Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in the 7th and 8th, these are always in counties that are sort of bellwether counties for the country.
How these counties go is how the rest of the country go.
It's going to be interesting to see without the spotlight on them, but the spotlight is going to be more on the Senate race in Pennsylvania and the presidential race coming through.
Pennsylvania as well.
Can they hold on to what they were looking for to win a majority?
It's going to be difficult with those.
But Wilde and Cartwright both have survived these seats for several times already.
And, you know, we'll have the backing to try and keep this.
Washington 3, this is Washington State 3 Perez out there.
This would be an issue.
I think we could actually win this seat if we can get Republican money and the candidate out there to win this seat.
I think that could be a pickup for Republicans.
So anything there, any wins in the seats that I just named, add to the Republican majority.
Now, Republicans also have to defend 15 seats.
They got two in Arizona, Swakert and Siskamani.
You have several in California that are going to be The Duarte, Valadeo, Garcia, and Calvert seats, all in California.
Again, California being basically a blue state, except for the areas outside of San Diego, outside of San Francisco, and outside of Los Angeles.
And so it'll be interesting to see if we can keep this.
The Valadeo seat...
Is up there in the same area as Kevin McCarthy's seat.
Kevin McCarthy, who again resigned from Congress on December 31st of this past year.
His seat is now open.
Republican seat, it'll be interesting to see how well they keep that seat.
Florida's fifth is John Rutherford.
And mainly it's because it's around the city of Jacksonville.
But John Rutherford is a former sheriff.
He's a good guy.
He's a good friend.
I think John will overcome this and win again in this race as you're looking forward to it.
Julia Litlau is...
Litlow is Louisiana 5th.
This was a seat that she won when her husband passed away, who was recently elected.
She won it in a special.
This will be the first up for her to be re-elected.
We'll see how that turns out.
New Jersey, this could be an issue when given New Jersey politics.
New Jersey politics right now are, especially with Menendez at the top of the ticket.
We didn't discuss that in the Senate races because I don't think the New Jersey seats a flippable seat.
I think it's a seat in which Democrats are going to have to find their candidate and Menendez could lose.
But I think it still leans to stay in the Democratic camp.
But if there's a lot of ugliness around the indictments around Menendez, the corruption, those kind of things that could actually play into the Republicans favor to maybe give Thomas Keene in New Jersey 7th a run for his money.
Here you get into the New York issue, and that is Esposito, Lawler, Molinero, and Williams, all in toss-up areas.
The maps have been changed.
As that runs itself out, we'll talk more about that in the future.
Also, the Oregon 5th.
Chavez, DeRiemer, this is one that we picked up, sort of a surprise pickup, but it could be one that is in play as we go forward.
So really, as you look at the house perspective here, you look at a lot of seats that we're just going to have to wait.
Just going to have to wait on.
And as if we wait on those seats and coming forward, it'll just depend on how the primary plays out, how the national level plays out.
And one of the reasons that we're discussing this is especially the House seats and the Senate seats, to an extent as well, play off of the momentum of the national campaigns.
And so with the national campaigns, the presidential campaigns, how they operate in these different States are going to be key to some of them.
And that would be momentum-wise, especially the California, the New York seats, which are in play.
In a wave, they tend to go.
In a non-wave, they tend to stay where they're at.
So we'll have to keep a watch on that as those will heat up.
So I'll tell you right now, we'll probably talk more Senate races going up until June.
House races will start forming themselves in the June, July, August timeframe.
A good friend of mine, Richard Hudson, is running the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is the House Republicans in the reelection mode for the campaigns.
He is a...
Good political strategist.
He is also good at running the committee, raising money, and doing the things that are needed to keep those House seats safe so they can not only just protect their margin, but actually grow their margin.
We'll see how that runs.
DCCC has been raising money.
They're raising a good bit.
But again, they're going to be dependent a lot on the momentum coming from the Joe Biden campaign as well.
We'll see.
If that actually takes effect and takes hope.
So with that, those are the races to look for.
We've did, like I said last week, we did the Senate races.
This week is the look at the presidential and then the House races to be determined as we go forward.
We're going to keep you updated all year here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
We're glad to have you join us.
Go to the Doug CollinsPodcast.com.
Check that email button.
Let us know what you think.
Maybe you've got a race that I missed.
Maybe there's some in your state that are going to be a little more interesting.
Maybe we'll get into primary battles.
I mean, because right now, the House is typically primary battles.
It's not as much general election battles.
24 out of 435 considered toss-ups.
But you could see some incumbents, if they're going to get beat, most of the time incumbents are getting beat in primaries to an extent.
It just makes it harder.
This is what they fight against.
And we'll see how that turns out, especially if there's open seats.
We've had a record number of Retirements, moving to other offices, running for other offices in this last year.
So we'll see how that goes.
Keep a watch at it.
We'll have some good times here tracking the primaries and also tracking now to Super Tuesday when I think it honestly will be over with on the Republican side for Donald Trump, him becoming the nominee for the Republicans going into the fall, in which you get Biden-Trump, two.
And judging by the numbers right now, Donald Trump has the advantage.
And it'll be interesting to see how that race plays out, because Joe Biden can't hide in the basement on this one.
And it'll be interesting to see how the two campaigns meld out as we go through the year.
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