All Episodes
Previous Next
Jan. 3, 2024 - Doug Collins Podcast
30:43
Senate Races 2024
| Copy link to current segment

Time Text
You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, welcome back to the podcast.
Welcome.
Happy New Year, 2024. We're all here.
We're ready to go.
It's the first Wednesday of the year.
How did you like getting started off with Reagan and the time for choosing?
Is that just not the episode that we played on Monday?
This is the one that just sort of sets the tone.
It's the time for choosing.
And it's a time for choosing what we want in our government, what we want out of our government.
I've also been reading a lot of stuff that is just amazing how far we have come from the original founder's intent of what a federal government would look like.
Some of it, you know, again, go back and work this.
I wish that more people would spend time on the foundational documents and not just, you know, look and say, oh, we're just going to be originalists and only can be that.
No, we're not horse and buggy anymore.
There are some things that But the underlying fundamental tenets of the Constitution and the underlying fundamental tenets of other documents that supplement our Constitution, and I've heard too many people basically try to say the Declaration of Independence is one of our governing documents.
No, it's not.
The Constitution is our governing documents.
The Declaration of Independence is a foundational document that underscores why we should have and why we have the freedoms that we have in the Constitution.
But these are all just issues that I wish we'd spend more time on because then we could have honest, legitimate debate On what was the role of the states?
What was the role of the federal government?
What is this idea of federalism?
What is the idea of the courts?
And the ideas of, you know, was the 10th Amendment or the 9th Amendment or the necessary and proper clause?
All these things, you know, have gotten so expanded over the years.
Now, some may not be able to put back in the box.
I get that.
But as we look to this next election cycle, it's always good to take a step back, to look at these things, and I enjoy reading.
Again, the other thing, too, is read things that you don't always agree with.
I know this is hard for some.
I get it.
But don't always just read stuff you agree with up front because it's called confirmation bias.
In other words, you only read what you believe to be true.
Now, there's some absolute truths, the absolute wrong of abortion, the absolute wrong of racism, and that each person's dignity is found in God who created them.
I mean, there's some absolutes in there that you deal with.
But for many times in political life, we always like to tend to side With the folks we always agree with.
I have learned more, frankly, in the ones I disagree with than the ones I have agreed with sometimes, because the ones I agree with already understand.
So once I disagree with, then I have to take what I believe, and then I have to associate it with what somebody else believes, and then I have to find an answer to that disbelief, that I don't believe what they believe, or maybe it shows me something that I've not thought about.
Maybe what we'll do here in the next few weeks, maybe using the month of January, is we'll explore some of these ideas and founding principles and documents that we go through.
But today, starting off, it's election year.
I've been telling you the time has changed.
Tables have changed.
The clocks and calendars all tell us it's 2024. And let's look at what this year means in elections.
So the next couple of episodes, we're going to do one today, one on Monday.
We've got Friday's Finest with Chip and James on Friday this week.
But I want to start off with the races that are out there that are going to decide the direction of our government.
Today, we're going to do the top 10 Senate races.
Senate races aren't as in play.
I mean, because to one, it's only 100 of them.
The Senate races are fairly stagnant.
When you look at the amounts of races that come in play, we're going to look at the 10. Next Monday, we're going to take a look at the House.
There's a lot going on in the House.
It's a little bit more not as cut and dried, if you would, than the Senate races.
And we're also going to look at the presidential race next week.
This is going to come to quick closure, I think, and we're going to see a firming up of the Biden-Trump rematch.
But I think there's some things that need to be discussed, and let's look at that on Monday of next week.
So first off, right after the break, we're going to get into it.
A lot of introduction here.
I wanted you to understand that, you know, looking at this, we're going to give you everything you need this year to hopefully help you make informed decisions.
And also, frankly, from those who listen as a conservative, to be able to fight in the arena of ideas.
And fight just doesn't mean you go out and just, you know, attack people.
Fight means actually you take logical arguments and then win people over.
That's what we've got to be a part of.
So right after the break, let's get into the top ten Senate races here in the U.S. Hey folks, you know, when you look out and you see the country and just the disarray it is, you see the Biden administration, you see the wholesale prices have just went through the roof again.
Inflation is tearing us up.
If you have your finances all impinged in just a few areas, if you're just in stocks and bonds and you're not diversified...
I got some news for you.
You need a navigator.
You need somebody to help you get to where you need to go with those finances.
And I can't think of anybody better to do that than my friends at Legacy Precious Metals.
You need precious metals in that portfolio.
You need gold and silver.
And Legacy Precious Metals, the folks there, they're the navigators.
They know how to deal with tough times.
They know how to look ahead and take your personal situation and make it something that can be workable for you in the long term.
Because that's at the end of the day, that's the one you're most concerned about.
You need to make sure that your personal finances and your retirement are secure.
You need folks like Legacy Precious Metals helping you in that.
They will take the time to learn you.
They'll learn your finance.
They'll learn where your investment goals are, and they'll help you get there.
And metals and gold right now in this kind of crazy inflation, in this kind of crazy economy with the Biden's economy, you need that help.
And Legacy Precious Metals is the one to do that.
So give Legacy Precious Metals a call.
866-528-1903.
866-528-1903.
Or you can always visit them online at LegacyPMInvestments.com and you can download their free investor's guide.
Legacy Precious Metals, they're the ones you need.
They're the navigators to help you to these turbulent times.
Hey everybody, it's MyPillow's 20th year anniversary and over 80 million MyPillows have been sold.
Mike Lindell and MyPillow wants to thank each of you and every one of you for giving you the lowest price in history on their MyPillows.
You will receive a queen size MyPillow for $19.98, regular price is $69.98 and just $10 more for a king size.
You will receive deep discounts on all MyPillow products, such as bed sheets, mattress toppers, pet beds, mattresses, MySlippers, and so much more.
This is a time to try out something other than the amazing products that you've had your eye on.
Go to MyPillow.com, click on the radio podcast square, and use the promo Collins, C-O-L-L-I-N-S, to receive this amazing offer on the queen-size MyPillow for $19.98 or call $800.
800-986-3994.
This offer comes with a 10-year warranty and 60-day money-back guarantee.
It's time to start getting the quality sleep you deserve.
You know how I know that?
Because I sleep on a MyPillow every night.
Go to MyPillow.com and use promo code COLLINS, C-O-L-L-I-N-S, or call 800-986-3994 today.
All right, we're here.
Top 10 Senate races is...
This was going to be the one, if there's...
How do I put this?
If there's ever going to be a time in which we look at it from a perspective of what?
As a conservative.
The number one format, of course, in this next election is to get a Republican elected president.
And that looks like it's going to be Donald Trump in the Republican side for the nominee.
We need to elect Donald Trump over Joe Biden, move this race forward.
Then the question is, is how we govern?
One of the things that is in governance with the Presidency is a need for a Senate that you can work with.
Joe Biden, in especially his first two years, had the ability to have a Senate and a House, both under Democratic control.
He now has the Senate, but not the House.
And you've seen how things have slowed up over the last year in dealing with a non-favorable legislative body, such as the House.
He's getting impeached.
Inquiry going.
They're probably at some point going to bring articles of impeachment in the House.
Well, again, Not to go anywhere in the Senate, but again, it's very probable that people are gonna be taking a look at everything going on with the Biden family and the lack of oversight from the Department of Justice in these cases, and we'll see how it turns out.
But the Senate is the backstop.
So if you look at it for next cycle, the president being a Republican, preferably at this point, looking like Donald Trump being that person, is the Senate is gonna be important for putting forth nominees, judges, everything else.
This is important.
So this is where we're going to start first.
The House is important, and we'll get to it.
I served there.
It's my beloved body.
I love it.
But we'll talk about them on Monday along with the presidential race.
So let's look at the first in the Senate race.
The Democrats are at a decided disadvantage in this election cycle.
They're defending more vulnerable seats than Republicans.
In fact, frankly, out of the top ten, I'm going to read a couple to you.
We'll talk about it toward the end.
I don't think that the races Democrats see as vulnerable are actually vulnerable.
One that they keep talking about is Colin Allreda versus Ted Cruz in Texas.
I just don't see it.
I don't see Ted Cruz getting beat in Texas.
I think Ted Cruz ends up with a five to six point victory after a lot of money's been spent.
Texas has been trending a little bit like some other states.
But, again, I think it's still a large lift to say that a statewide candidate in Texas Republican loses.
Florida is the other one.
Rick Scott.
Now, this one is a little bit more interesting, but again, Rick Scott has wealth.
He has the ability to buy in ads and spend money to make sure that his voters turn out.
And Marc Arsopal, who is running against, is not as known as Rick Scott.
I mean, this is going to be a race that I just, again, given the trend of Florida in the last couple of years, and especially with Donald Trump and the others on the ballot for the presidency, I just don't see those two turning.
So, you take those out.
Here's the situation.
The Democrats have a one-seat majority in the Senate, thanks to the independents who caucus with them.
And they are in a tenuous position here because Vice President Harris has to come in and break ties.
She broke the most in a year.
I think it was last year.
We're looking at the possibility of having, if they get votes to the floor, being another issue that they deal with coming up.
So with that being the case, let's start looking at where the Republicans can pick up seats.
The first one is easy.
The first one is West Virginia.
Joe Manchin basically ceded this seat to the Republicans by not running.
If Joe Manchin had a run, he would have probably gotten beat.
That was the consensus.
He's running against the current governor, Jim Justice.
Alex Mooney is in the primary against Justice.
Most feel like, at this point in time, Justice will win.
Mooney, a good guy.
I've known Mooney for a while.
They're going to spend a lot of money To work against justice, that primary will get interesting.
Either way, this one is not one that the Republicans lose.
So if you're keeping score, we're back to sort of 50-50.
If that was the only race that happened this year in 2024, we'd be at 50-50 in the Senate.
Again, that's if it was the only race, which it is not.
So if you're keeping score at home, the Republicans can't Lose a race here, or they go back if this was, you know, again how we set it up, but the Republicans pick up in West Virginia.
Montana.
This is going to be an interesting one that could be played out in the Republican primary and then how that would affect the race against John Tester, who is the re-elect senator up for re-election.
He's done it three times before.
He's won three Senate races out there.
He's not an easy opponent, but Montana is a red state.
It's just one that is going to be in play.
The interesting part here for Republicans is the primary battle.
They have a retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy, who came in fairly quickly.
He was basically recruited by Steve Daines and the NRSC, the National Republican Senate Committee, to run.
He's a newcomer.
He is...
He doesn't have a record of elected office because he's never served in elected office.
A businessman, you know, again, goes through everything that a newcomer campaign has so far.
Some starts and stops, but so far he's run a very solid campaign.
He'll have the financial resources to run this campaign.
And like I said, with Steve Daines, who is the other senator from Montana, this makes this a little bit interesting.
Steve Daines, a good friend of mine, and in the Republican Senate who runs the Senate...
Campaign Committee is basically going up against his seat partner, who is John Tester, who they've been serving together for a number of years.
This one will be an interesting race.
It will be decided in many ways on how close or how contested this race will come to the primary, because right now, Matt Rosendale, who is one of the two, which is new to this cycle, one of the two congressmen from The state of Montana, who's very conservative, who was part of the Get Rid of McCarthy movement, and others here, possibly will jump into this primary.
If he jumps into this primary, then it's going to drag this primary out.
There's going to be a lot of money spent.
We'll see how that actually plays out as we go forward.
It's an interesting run to see this one because, again, Sheehy, Rosedale.
Rosedale has already run against Tester and lost.
I think that may play into this factoring.
You know, if Matt wants to get in, I'm one of those that get in, the water's warm, you know, find out.
But he's already lost to John Tester once.
And will the people of Montana look at that and say, we need to send somebody up against Tester who's already lost in this one?
Where is she?
He, you know, newcomer, young family, you know, look, we'll see.
And it's just been since 2018 since Rosell lost to Tester and then he became a member of the House a little bit later after, you know, when Zinke and I had gotten out.
So this is an interesting story.
Race to look at, but it's one in which it will be, the closeness of this race, I'm going to just say right now, is going to determine what comes out of this Republican primary.
If Sheehy is able to, if Rosendale decides not to, then...
Then that makes it easier for the Republicans.
They can consolidate around one.
They can then focus all their energy on Tester.
If not, then you're going to have to see.
Rosendale is doing everything but announcing his run, so let's just keep an eye out there.
Now, the reason I say this makes this one a toss-up and close to call right now is Tester survived three times.
He's actually beaten one of the ones thinking about running against him before in 2018, the last time he was on the ballot.
And Montana is not...
They have a habit of electing Democrats as governor and also Democrats into the Senate.
They don't have that tendency with the House members, but this is something we've seen in the Senate.
And Tester is also well-liked.
You have a heavy military population out there.
He's the chair of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee.
So expect to see this race become very expensive and also One that will be close, and a lot of it depending upon who is the candidate.
All right, Sherrod Brown and Iowa.
Ohio is the next one I think that most people have on the list.
You can look this up anywhere.
You're seeing the targets of West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana on the top three.
He's facing, you know, this is a state, Ohio, that Trump has won twice.
Others in the state are Republicans.
It's a March 19th primary for the Ohio Republican ballot here.
In this looking at it, again, Ohio does have a couple of interesting specters going for it.
They just had an Ohio ballot initiative back in November about the right to abortion.
It passed fairly significantly.
Each of the Republican challengers suggested they would back a national abortion ban.
This could play into that race.
Donald Trump, former President Trump, has weighed in at the end of last year with Bernie Marino, who also has the support of the other U.S. Senator, J.D. Vance, who won just two years ago.
This should give Marino a leg up in the primary going ahead and going forward.
There's another candidate in the race, Matt Dolan, who was in the race before.
He's not running the same race.
He's more of a moderate.
We'll see how this goes, but he is significantly wealthy, and we'll see how that goes.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also in the race.
He started the campaign, and again, he's elected Secretary of State, so he was in a position where he's been voted on before.
It is Left to be seen how that comes out.
I think Marino is going to probably be the one, at this point, if we were ranking this here early in January, where do you see it?
I think Marino probably has the leg up from the Trump endorsement, the J.D. Vance endorsement, and I think you'll start seeing some others in the Ohio Republican delegation from the House.
Start weighing in here as well.
And by the fact that many in the House, you know, and there's some bigger names in the House who didn't jump into this race, I think says that, you know, they're staying out of it.
I think you're going to see them, you know, weigh in to get another senator.
So Sherrod Brown could be a...
One is in this endangered toss-up list.
Now, let's catch up real quick.
Those three races, top three races in the country, are all leaning Republican.
One is already, you know, basically gone Republican.
That's West Virginia.
Then you have Montana and Ohio.
If you take those three races, then you not only have West Virginia, you went to even.
Now, with these other two, you would be up two.
And I think that's going to be important as we keep this up.
Pennsylvania, I know this one is the fourth...
In fifth or sixth race, the top five, however you want to look at it.
Sometimes, you know, just in the top ten.
But he has, this is Bob Casey.
Casey is known throughout the state.
This is his fourth re-election to the Senate.
Probably going to be one of his toughest as we go forward.
He's up against Rich McCormick.
Rich McCormick, I'm sorry, Dave McCormick.
Rich McCormick is the congressman from Georgia.
Dave McCormick is, who lost, In 2022, And in the Senate race in which Dr. Oz became the nominee, is now back at it.
He is wealthy.
He is a former hedge fund executive.
I met with Dave at a meeting here recently in New York.
He is all in.
He speaks well.
It's going to be interesting to see how he actually gets out in campaigns and articulates that message.
Casey, again, though, it's going to be hard to beat.
If we were depending everything on just Pennsylvania, I would say The Democrats would look pretty good in trying to keep control of the Senate, but we're not keeping that.
This is one that I think will reach a little bit to get, but...
We'll see.
I think it's one to have to watch.
And as you move forward here, this one will be the one, could be the fourth seat out of the ones that are most possible for Republicans.
Pennsylvania would have to be one.
Then we get into the strangest race right now, mainly because the Independent, not Democrat anymore, Kristen Sinema, She has decided to be independent last year and is basically not filed for re-election.
She'll have to file, I think it is, by April if she's going to be on the race or not.
Interesting part here is that Ruben Gallego is already running a race in the primary side against her.
On the Democratic Party, basically saying she left the Democratic Party, she sides with Republicans too much, she's too moderate.
I mean, this is some of the arguments you always, you tend to hear a lot of times from conservative states talking about Republicans who are siding with Democrats too much in votes and are being too moderate.
This is what you're seeing in the Republican or the Democratic primary in Arizona.
I think her weighting and her numbers have been okay, but they've not been great fundraising.
I think Gallego has outrun You know, fundraised and others with this.
It's going to be, you know, interesting to see how this flows out.
Carrie Lake is the Republican.
Right now, it's between Gallego and Lake.
If you look at any of the polls, Sinema is a distant third.
I wouldn't be surprised you see Sinema announce this sometime probably here in January.
She's not going to run it.
I think that probably is the likely outcome here.
She's not been able to pick up any disenfranchised Republican voters who feel like that they don't want to support Carrie Lake or don't want to support Donald Trump or however you want to figure it.
She's not picking up those votes.
Ruby Gallego is picking up the Democratic vote.
She's not picking up enough to be competitive in this race.
So I think this one And then we'll become a Democrat-Republican race, Gallego and Lake, and it's truly a toss-up.
This is one we can pick up.
Republicans have made great gains, but I will say they voted.
Arizona has a Democrat governor from the last election cycle, and of course, Maricopa County continues to be just the hotbed of election...
Issues that have been litigated more times than we could think of.
So this one right now, I'm not going to put this one in a lean anything yet until really Sinema decides if she's going to run or not.
If she decides to run...
It could make it rather interesting with an independent Republican and a Democrat on the ticket with Sinema trying to pull votes away from both.
Right now, though, the polls are not saying she can do that as we go forward.
So let's see.
Nevada, another one that is an opportunity for Republicans.
We'll just have to see how well we come through here.
They have gotten a very strong...
Push here from Sam Brown, who finished second in last year's Senate primary.
This was one to see.
He's been endorsed by a great many folks.
I think the Republican Party is coming around.
The I guess not to say they didn't come because there's not one for the Republicans here, but Sam Brown has become the candidate.
Nevada is one of those toss-up kind of states.
It went to Biden barely in 2020. They're looking at their ground game.
We've made some gains in recent years in Nevada, but we've not been able to solidify that as Republicans in the last few cycles.
Hispanic voters will be a huge issue here, which does give Rosen a little bit more of a possibility.
But Brown is doing a really good job at telling his own story.
He is a decorated war veteran who was disfigured in an accident or an attack in his service.
And he's been very open about that.
And I think he's drawing some support as they move forward in Nevada.
So Nevada's another pickup.
Again, it will be a hard-fought pickup, but also, let me just put a plug in Nevada, because I think Nevada will actually show us what's happening with Hispanic vote and the possibility of Donald Trump, who recent polls have shown actually picking up support among In fact, Donald Trump leading among Hispanics with 52 to 41 among registered voters in a poll conducted in late October.
This was in Nevada.
Hispanic voters were split evenly, as were white college educated voters, usually a key group for Democrats.
So this is one place to watch.
The Wisconsin race, I'm not even going to put it in there.
Hoved is one that is running.
Eric Hoved, you know, we'll see what happens.
He ran along about 10 years ago for the seat and lost in that.
There's no auctions right now with other Republicans coming in.
Mike Gallagher and many of the others are not running against Baldwin.
Ball won't be a tough break of this year, but this is also a seat in which has went for Biden and has went for Trump.
So intellectually, it's going to be a flip as we go there.
Michigan, another state that we need to watch.
I'm not sure where to, you know, move it right now.
Elise Slotkin is running for Senate.
Debbie Stabenow has stepped down.
Mike Rogers, who was in Congress, you know, back in 2015, he left in 2015.
is raising money Um, They didn't clear the field.
Peter Meyer, who was also a U.S. rep, who lost his primary this past cycle, also announced a campaign It is going to be interesting there because Meyer was one who voted to impeach Donald Trump.
He lost in his primary.
It'll be interesting to see if the more conservative voters than Michigan will turn out for Meyer, and especially if he wins the primary, what would they do going forward?
There's a few others that...
Are out there that are looking for the GOP primary, but none that are going to contest with Meyer and Rogers as they move forward here.
And also, there's one thing is Michigan has been a Democrat better state in the last couple of cycles, and also the Republican Party in Michigan is struggling.
You've seen that in fundraising.
You've seen it in their, they have a biennial Republican policy conference up at the island up in northern Michigan.
It was, from all reports, was not anywhere close to a success and very much of a struggle.
This is going to come down to how not only do they deal with these state races that they're going to have and also the possibility of even replacing Hopefully, flipping slot can seat back up there, which we'll talk about when we deal with the House.
But they've also got to be in a position to actually help with the 2024 ticket because the presidential race is going to have to have Michigan in there.
For Republicans, you know, Donald Trump and others to do well.
They need the look into Michigan.
The other ones I sort of spoke of earlier that are out there, you're going to have, you know, Tennessee, Texas and Florida.
Cruz and Scott.
I don't see these as actually flip seats.
It's almost like, for me, it's almost like the Tammy Baldwin.
There'll be a lot of sound and fury at the end of the day trying to get rid of Cruz.
And Scott just don't see it happening.
So right now, out of those top, you know, these 10 states that we just mentioned, you know, you're looking at three to four solid GOP potential flips, one in the books.
So the question is, Republicans, as Democrats, they have to look at where can they pull an upset.
And right now, the field is pretty lax on where they'll be able to find a An upset bid.
Texas and Florida, I just don't see that happening.
So they'll have to look elsewhere in a map that is not very conducive to doing so.
This would be one in which if you're wanting to get involved, if you're in one of the states that I just mentioned, call, get behind one of these conservative candidates.
If that is what you're wanting to do, make sure that the conservative movement turns out, not only in the primary, but then also in the general, so that these states can be flipped, these seats can be flipped, and the House, the Senate, We'll be in Republican control after next November.
That's going to be important for a Republican president once they get in.
You don't want to have to start off in the way that we did when you can't get people confirmed through the Senate.
And I think that's going to be something that weighs heavily on the decisions that we're going to have to spend money and also make sure that we get enough of these Senate seats flipped so that conservatives will have The majority in each of them.
So with that, that's sort of a quick wrap-up of where we're at.
We're going to do more of these.
I'll keep you updated as primary season goes along and looking ahead to the general.
But right now, that's your update.
The Senate looks good to flip to Republicans, but Republicans have got to get out and have got to consolidate around their nominees after their primaries so that the...
Candidates can win and you get the benefit of flipping the Senate to Republican control.
So with that, that's the first of the updates.
We'll catch you next time.
Remember, go to the DougCollinsPodcast.com.
You have the email button there.
You can always send me your comments, suggestions, and maybe some that we left out.
▲
Export Selection