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June 14, 2023 - Doug Collins Podcast
20:48
Early Look at the 2024 Senate Races Part 2
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Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
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The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
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In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Wednesday, this is part two of our look-ahead, very early look-ahead, at the Senate races.
A quick reminder before we jump into it here after commercial break.
Top five seats we talked about in the last cycle were West Virginia, Montana, Arizona, Ohio, and Nevada.
All of which have different unique factors playing into them.
The biggest factor being the top three, which are the three most flippable seats, are all heavily Republican seats or lean heavily Republican seats that are currently held by Democrats.
So the Democrats are going to be spending a lot of money early on to try and keep their incumbents propped up here.
We'll see how that goes.
I laid out those pros and cons in the last episode.
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All right, here after the break, we'll be back with the next five in the top 10 Senate races for 2024. Hey everybody, you know about Legacy Precious Metals.
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Alright, let's get into some more of these races.
And we're going to plow through these fairly quickly, but I do want to touch on them because they're important.
These are the races that are in play, but not as in play as the top five.
So we'll see how this goes.
And a couple of these races I'm going to throw in just because they're going to be interesting races.
I don't see them actually changing.
One we'll talk about, we've already talked about here on the podcast with my Democrat colleague Kevin Walling.
So Let's jump into this.
Wisconsin comes in at number six.
Tammy Baldwin, current senator from there, announced she is running for a third term.
That automatically sort of helps out there in a state that has been Moving back and forth between Republican and Democrat.
Some good, some bad, depending on your perspective as far as your political affiliation.
But having her running for a third term, she's been there 12 years, is an advantage to what is going on.
And also, really not having to worry about a primary cycle in Wisconsin.
She is raising money.
She's got about $4 million in the bank.
$2.1 million came out of first quarter.
Ballin, right down the line, liberal in the purest form, and this will be part of this race.
The question for the Senate committee...
Is who in Wisconsin can run and present a formidable challenge?
Now remember, as we get down into these seats, these seats are in play, but they're not as in play as the top five because of what we've seen in the elections going forward.
Remember, last fall, Democrats...
The recent Supreme Court election, which the Democrat-backed candidate won by 10 points, and that flipped the control of the bench to the liberals.
The competitiveness of state is in the fact that in 2020, Biden only won the state by half a point.
So the question you can legitimately ask yourself is, is the 10-point judges race an anomaly, or is the Biden-Trump race the anomaly?
That'll be the interesting part.
And Trump, because Trump won it by a very similar margin just four years prior.
So we'll have to see, you know, how this plays out if they get a strong candidate.
Mike Gallagher, whom a congressman from Wisconsin is being talked about, Mike would be a very strong candidate in the Republican field, very strong candidate, I think, going up against Baldwin.
Sean Duffy has been mentioned.
Sean currently a Fox News host and his wife is on, you know, mornings, weekends on Fox.
I've heard his name mentioned and he's getting a lot of push to go back and do it.
I don't think that is going to.
He got out because of family.
Several years ago, I just don't see him jumping back into a race in which will be such high profile as this Wisconsin Senate race against Baldwin.
Now, if he did, he would be a very formidable candidate, just like Gallagher would be a very formidable candidate.
Tom Tiffany, I mean, if you're in the delegation up in Wisconsin, you're being thought about for this Senate seat.
Gallagher, I think, likes where he's at.
It'll be interesting to see if he actually gets in it.
Then that leaves us with actually two other folks who won Eric Hoved.
He lost the GOP Senate nomination back in 2012. Scott Mayer.
And then you've got David Clark, who was a Milwaukee County Sheriff.
Many of you have seen David during the last election cycle and also on many of the media and social media pages as well.
So Wisconsin is not shaped yet.
It's an in-place seat simply based on performance, but I think it's going to be interesting to see who the actual Republican is in this race, and I think that would determine how close or how much money will be spent to flip this seat from Tammy Baldwin.
You get a strong Republican that can draw, get this thing very close.
This could be one of the more expensive races and also the closest race that we see going forward.
All right, let's move to number seven, Michigan.
This is going to be the first open seat in this process that we've talked about, and that is that Debbie Stabenow is retiring in this.
Elyse Slotkin, who was in a very tough Democrat seat to hold in the House, has cleared the Democratic field.
Looks like Elyse will be the nomination, the nominating, the Democrat coming out of this nomination process.
There is a possibility of some others getting in, but right now, Slotkin's fundraising.
She's out there doing it.
She's out there raising the money, $3 million first quarter.
This could get, you know, interesting there.
And then you've got the Republican side.
And you've got names that have been out there for a while.
James Craig, who finished second and sixth.
You know, Rinky was a businessman.
James Craig, in the last year's governor's primary, both lost.
Although Craig could be a more formal candidate.
He had to do it as a write-in because of invalid signatures.
But...
Democrats had a good year last year in Michigan, and they took the top three posts and flipped the state legislature.
Biden only won it by three points, but...
Again, this one is not one, if I'm a Republican, I'm feeling all warm and fuzzy about right now.
This is one in which I think is going to be an uphill battle to find a candidate.
Peter Mayer, who is a member of Congress who got beat in the last race, actually...
In his race for re-election, he voted to impeach Trump and probably would be very difficult in a splintered Republican field for him.
Other members of Congress from up in that area have not gave any indication that they're looking to run.
So, I'm just...
I put this...
I mean, this has been a seven...
It could be a 10, actually, because I think this was just going to be a very tough look at how they're going to do it.
So we'll see how that works out as we move forward here going into this cycle.
If the Republicans and the Republican Party up there is struggling...
To get together as well.
And so that just leads you to believe that Michigan could actually, I think, fall further down on this list as we get closer to this time next year, looking at the potential for flips in the Senate races.
That leads us to number eight with Bob Casey, the incumbent out of Pennsylvania.
Casey did decide to run.
He's had some health issues, but he is running for a fourth term.
He is very well known.
He won re-election by 13 points.
In 2018, I guess it was 2017 when he ran the last time.
So, like I said, he's very one-on.
And also, let me just say this.
They're looking to see if Dave McCormick will get back in this race.
He lost the GOP nomination to Dr. Oz.
Dr. Oz is nowhere to be found in Pennsylvania right now.
That will not happen again.
I don't see it.
And, you know, again...
Republicans have struggled in Pennsylvania.
I think the field would clear out for the most part for McCormick.
Mastriano, who lost the governor's race by 15 points last year, and many people feel it was very much of a drain on the Republican turnout in Pennsylvania, is not running at this time.
So it will be interesting to see if McCormick sort of clears the field and makes it a McCormick-Casey race.
I have some contacts in Pennsylvania.
Casey's going to be tough to beat.
He's just more of an institution up there.
With the Republican primaries up there, the presidential cycle this year, could this race get a lot closer?
Yes.
And this, I think, why most, including myself, you know, have put this race out there as one to watch, because Pennsylvania has a lot of different perspectives that are coming forth in the Republican Party.
You've got to split in the Republican Party.
You had the Mastriano branch, you had the McCormick branch, you had the Oz branch, you had the Kathy Barnett branch.
You know, and I just don't know if they've gotten back together yet.
We've not seen, you know, evidence in the election cycles.
The congressional candidates did fine, but on the statewide level, these were just not playing out the way they did last in this cycle last year.
So will they, you know, is there going to be a healing between now and the next primary cycle?
We'll see.
And then the question will be, whoever wins the primary cycle, if they can, are they actually going to be able to, you know, come together and get all Republicans on the page to vote for a Republican over a Democrat?
Great questions.
We'll find out.
At this point in time, I just...
I'm not sure.
Pennsylvania is in that look and see category.
Could it become a very tight race?
Yes.
Could it become a race that...
Sort of falls off a lot like Michigan.
I can see that happening as well.
Here is the next race here is number nine.
And this is the race that I just find hilarious.
At this point, and look, these next two are the ones that everybody's talking about because they're in cycle.
And they're in states that are large with a lot of money that's going to be spent.
First one, Texas.
Income Republican Ted Cruz.
This will be his third.
Time at re-election, the first time Beto O'Rourke tried to unseat him in 2018, O'Rourke lost by three points.
O'Rourke is not going to get in this race.
Colin Allred looks like he's going to be the Democrat in this race.
And that is what is giving, quote, hope to...
The Democrats that this could somehow be their year to take Texas.
I just don't see this.
You know, again, Cruz has raised money.
Cruz at times can be unlikable.
I think that's been a consistent thought even among Republicans about him, but nobody has got the ability to...
Take him out in a primary.
And, you know, the Democrats have railed against Ted Cruz for years, and he's consistently won.
So, I mean, I just, you know, Allred provides a, you know, I guess a competent, you know, candidate to run against Cruz.
I don't see how this is going to change because what we're actually seeing in Texas, you're seeing more Hispanic votes on the border actually move toward, you know, The Republicans, we saw Republicans keep a seat on the border that nobody ever thought they would keep.
So again, I have to bring it up here because you're going to hear a lot about it and Democrats are going to make a big deal about it just as they did when the The O'Rourke race in Cruz started in 18, but we'll see how this one plays out.
Just put it on your radar.
I mean, it's going to be there.
The other one to put on the radar is another candidate like Ted Cruz who is incumbent in Florida, and that's Rick Scott.
And Rick Scott barely won his first election in 2018 as a fraction of a point.
Followed by very narrow wins for Governor.
Rubio and DeSantis won with commanding victories last year, though.
So this is going to be an interesting...
I think this is where we are able to determine how far we have gotten with...
Florida turning red.
How much was the DeSantis-Marco-Rubio victory last year in saying that this is turned red?
How much was a reaction to a certain governor candidate, Ron DeSantis, who had had a very good run with COVID, disaster relief, and also not really having a very strong Democrat opponent to start with?
So this is going to be the play that comes out here at this point.
Scott still has a lot of issues from his hospital chain company.
He's very wealthy.
He can put money in here.
He also, if you remember, put out the policy statement.
He ran the Republican Senate Committee last year, which was criticized greatly for a lot of the candidates that they supported.
And then not taking the Senate and losing the Senate.
And I think that's going to come back a little bit there.
I just don't see the Democrats having a good plan to come out against Scott.
They're going to use some of the Medicare and Medicaid stuff against him.
He'll have to spend a lot of money.
Will this be another close race?
Yes, I think it'll be another very close race.
But at the end of the day, I think Scott holds this just like I believe Cruz holds it.
And we'll see how it all, you know, works out from there.
So, folks, again, I wanted to give you just a two-day, just sort of quick, you know, Cliff Notes version of the races that are shaping up.
We may try to do this for House races because with only a four-seat majority in the House, Democrats are actually going to be heavily gunning to get those seats back in a presidential year race.
You know, turnouts heavy.
Those could flip in some of the areas.
We'll see how redistricting has actually helped Republicans and in some ways helped Democrats as we go forward.
Remember, if it wasn't for New York, nobody would have predicted this last year.
If it wasn't for New York, Republicans would have never taken the House.
And I think that's something very, very important for people to realize as we're going through this that, you know, it's a matter of what's happening at the moment.
And we're so far out now.
If you have people telling you that this is what's going to happen, this is how it's going to happen, be very good.
Run, run, run.
Run away from them.
Because right now, we're talking eternity of time in these presidential races, in these Senate races, in these governor's races, in these House races, of where we are here in early June to where we will be in November of next year.
Wanted to give us an early heads up, early look at it.
That's what the early look is for here.
Got Friday's Finest coming up later this week.
So that's it for now.
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