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Nov. 21, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
26:32
Making sense of the Election
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey, everybody.
Welcome back to the Doug Collins Podcast.
Glad to have you with us.
Remember, always check out for the latest updates, everything we've got going on.
You can find it on the DougCollinsPodcast.com.
We've got information up about our trip that you just heard about.
I just want you to continue to keep that in mind.
We'd love to see you in Washington, D.C., the week of April 20th.
Lisa and I, along with Eric, the Travel Guy, love to have you come and tour our nation's capital with us.
So just another plug.
I know you just heard me talk about it, but I wanted to make sure you heard it again.
Wow.
I mean, we're coming into the end of the month here of November, and I don't know about you, but this is just flying by.
It's times the constant election drone that seems like it's gone on since 2020 of November, and now it's two years.
If you're riding along, you're running, walking, exercising, whatever you do to listen to the Doug Collins podcast, I want you to just think about that for a sec.
It's been two years.
Since the November 2020 presidential election.
And it seems like that it has never ended.
I mean, we went through everything after 2020, then we would sort of, it's like, jump straight into the mid-year cycle, then with all of the issues with the Biden administration.
And, you know, frankly, I think a lot of people are glad, I know I am, to see this election cycle over.
I'm pleased with some of the results.
I'm not pleased, of course, being a conservative.
I'm not pleased with other results.
But I'm also here in Georgia, in which we're three more weeks away from finishing up the 2022 election cycle for good, except for those states who don't know how to count ballots.
That's a whole different issue.
But, you know, with the last other election, that's the runoff here in Georgia between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warner.
I'll dig into that race just a little bit toward the end of the podcast today, but I wanted to give us a chance.
We went over this before.
I want to now sort of sit back two weeks after the election.
Almost two weeks after the election.
And let's just think about what is happening.
And I want to, you know, we talk on this podcast a lot about why things were happening.
And we brought this in percentages of how it would work, who would work.
And I'll be honest, you know, my last week's projections, they were off.
We missed it a little bit.
Now...
I did give a 225 to 235 range.
I thought toward the end, if you remember the podcast, because polling was looking like we were going to be up higher on the House side.
But 225, I said, was, and I'll use my own words, a bad night.
Well, we had, frankly, from the perspective of election margins, it was a bad night for Republicans.
It was a very good night, and I want to reemphasize this, it's a very good night for Republicans if you take the fact that we did take the House back.
Republicans did take the House back.
Which means that the divided government is back, that the just straight shot of spending and other programs from the Biden administration is now over.
What it does mean, though, is there could be a lot more gridlock.
There could be a lot more.
There's definitely going to be the possibility of shutdowns in the future and also the debt ceiling issue that is going to be coming up.
Interesting to note, and we'll do a whole different podcast on this as it gets closer to time.
I'm interested to see If they separate the debt ceiling away from the appropriations packages.
Just a little taste there for you.
Normally they will try to do those together if they do an omnibus or they do a continuing resolution, just so that you take it off because a standalone debt ceiling vote under Kevin McCarthy or frankly, and we'll talk about this in a minute as well, whoever's going to be speaker.
It's going to be very difficult in the House of Representatives, given the narrow margins of what we're seeing there.
So let's go back.
Also, as I said, we're on the very low end of the races.
It's still being called.
We've still got some folks who still...
Races that have not been called in California.
We've got one in a recount in Colorado.
Just a lot still left going on.
So as we deal with this coming up, the...
I think the issues that we have to face are, is what happened?
Why did the Senate, in which Republicans thought that they were going to get a 51 seat or a 52 seat majority, ended up getting a back to status quo?
I've gotten many texts and many calls from folks saying, you know, just pointing out the fact that, yes, the Republicans flipped the house, but if you look at the pure numbers that what happened over a billion dollars, Was spent, and we ended up basically in the same exact numerical position that we had beforehand.
Now, there's one change that could come.
The Democrats are fighting for the 51st seat down here in Georgia.
If Herschel Walker wins, then that seat, then it'll be back to 50-50 with Kamala Harris breaking all the ties.
Let's break this down a little bit.
What happened?
Why did it happen?
It's still a little bit early, but we're seeing some trends that develop.
And I want to talk about the election and what does all this mean.
And then we're going to go back into what happened in the last few days with leadership elections and how the results of these elections have played into that.
So first off, one of the things that I think that we have to just take into account, something we've talked about here on the podcast with many guests before, and that is that candidates matter.
At the end of the day, candidates matter.
Endorsements are great.
Endorsements help you.
Endorsements give you credibility.
If you don't have credibility, it gives you an edge.
A disparity, maybe, or there's an unknown factor in your race.
I think this 2022 election cycle will prove that out many times over, but it is not the only thing that you need.
You look at from the endorsements from the Progressive Caucus to Donald Trump on the conservative side to other members.
I mean, it's just, again, it helps you.
It may distinguish you.
It may help you raise money.
But, again, if you're a candidate who does not go out and build on the momentum of an endorsement, or your messaging, which we'll talk about in a second, is not there, then it goes back to the fact that you're possibly going to lose.
And we saw that really a lot in this cycle.
We saw it in primaries, and then we saw it also in the general election.
It also matters, I think, In the reverse.
We did see some things that are really disturbing in places like Pennsylvania, where the only debate came very late in the race.
John Fetterman is obviously not, at this point, seemingly fit to be United States Senator, although he will be.
But by the time the debate came out and people actually got to see John Fetterman in action, half of the votes were in in Pennsylvania.
And I think this is a concern.
But at the end of the day, I think candidates matter.
And I'm not saying candidate quality here.
I think sometimes the candidates may have good qualities, although people may not think so, but they have trouble with a team.
When I say a candidate in an election, you've got to understand, I believe candidates are their team.
Themselves and their team.
And you've got to build that whole infrastructure to race in some of these big races.
A race for Congress and a race for the United States Senate or a race for governor.
This is the NFL. This is the NBA. Whatever your favorite sport is.
The NBA. Whatever.
Major League Baseball.
This is the highest that you're going to get for the most part in this country.
From the perspective of money, influence, national media attention, you know, If you're getting national media attention in a county commission race, you've probably done something that's not exactly normal.
So, I mean, just a phrase here that you're going to have to have a team to build these races.
What we saw in these races, whether it be Senate races or House races, is a lot of these candidates, the teams, just frankly, were not there or they did not have the infrastructure to pull some of these races out.
And then the next thing is that messaging matters.
So candidates matter, but messaging matters as well.
This is where it's really going to be interesting to see as it falls out, even after these first term polls that have just come out about the election and why the election went.
Abortion was polling much higher in the summer.
It dropped down in September, October, and it seems to have reappeared in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Illinois a little bit.
We saw it in several states.
And what we were seeing was, and this, you know, again, From your perspective, abortion was an issue, and it became more of an issue if the Republicans were non-exemption candidates.
In other words, they did not express an exemption for rape, incest, and Health of the mother or life of the mother.
I think there's a big distinction there.
Life and health of the mother.
Life of a mother means the actual terminal condition of a mother.
Health, in many definitions, could be anything that the mother would like there.
So, again, but when you had those who were tagged with a, quote, no exceptions, and there was this discussion out there that any votes for this was going to take away abortion forever, that did play.
And I think it played more than what most of us thought it would play in being built in because you have a lot of younger voters come out, especially in some of these areas.
We did see that younger voter did make a turnout difference in some of these races.
Messaging mattered.
And messaging mattered to where you were.
If you were addressing these issues, if you were addressing the matters that was local to your races, again, congressional races are 435. If they got nationalized, you saw that at times, depending on where you were, tending to favor Republicans.
And I'll say that would be New York.
Lee Zeldin run an amazing campaign in New York, although he came up short in the governor's race.
But he carried the coattails of his message, the coattails of the nationalization of the crime issue and the nationalization of the economic issues in New York were ones that actually compelled and carried the Republican House candidates in particular.
In fact, right now, you can, and this is something that I don't think any of us would have probably said beforehand, is that the Republicans in New York are the ones really carrying the day for the Republicans to take control of the United States House.
And I'll just say a few years ago, you would have never thought that.
So messaging mattered.
In the Senate races, you saw this a good bit, especially in the Fetterman-Oz race.
Oz, who came through a brutal primary, was never able to establish a message that, number one, seemingly satisfied the Republican base, and number two, reached out to the independents and the others in this race.
I think a little bit of that came out from the primary that he went through, which left him some doubts in the minds of some of the Pennsylvania Republicans.
But yet, also at the time, the messaging just never was able to penetrate.
And at the same time, you had a Fetterman candidate who was hiding from the media and hiding from the public.
Pennsylvania ended up into being one of those just really interesting states on a statewide level.
But also there's another area of Pennsylvania.
This goes back to candidates and messaging matter.
And that was Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Josh Shapiro.
Mastriano just didn't run a campaign.
And I know I may get some folks go to the DougCollinsPodcast.com and go to the email page and you'll send me your comments and you'll disagree with me.
That's fine.
That's what, you know, podcasting, that's what, you know, your ability to say what you want to say, and I encourage you just to email me.
But it just appears, and from talking to people in Pennsylvania, elected officials and others, that the Maestriano campaign just never materialized.
You cannot, and again, this goes back to what I meant by candidates matter and messaging matters.
You cannot have a message that is not resonating if your candidate is not doing the things that matter.
And again, we've done podcasts on this talking about the fact that when you first hear that, well, I'm just running a grassroots campaign and I win.
That's code word for saying I can't raise money.
We're running under the radar.
Nobody understands.
Our voters aren't polling.
Well, that's also voters that you don't have those polling.
And that just proved true in the Pennsylvania race.
And I think the governor's race there, coupled with Oz's problems in connecting probably with some of the voters, was just too much to overcome.
They would just drag on the ticket.
It wasn't there.
And that's what happened.
Real quickly on the Senate, and this is why we're in the position we're in, there were five main races in which we had to hold.
There were three main races in which Republicans needed to pick up.
At the end of the day, and I made this clear in other podcasts, that if we lost one of those five, you had to pick up two of the other.
Well, we lost Pennsylvania.
So that meant you had to pick up two of the three states and not just one of the three.
Masters, again, this is another issue of a candidate never catching on.
I thought for a while that Cary Lake was going to be able to overtake.
Then, of course, Maricopa County happens again, and it just muddles the field.
But at the end of the day, it does look like that, you know...
Masters never even got close to the popularity level that Lake did in that race.
And so you lose Arizona, you lose Nevada, which this one was a surprise, because most had going in that Laxalt had a very legitimate chance of winning this race, that it was one that was very reachable for Republicans.
He was a good candidate.
He had good infrastructure.
He had good fundraising.
His messaging was on track.
It just came down to the fact that the Reid machine, the Democratic machine, ended up turning out more voters.
So at that point, you've lost two of the three.
When you lose one in your holes and you lose two of the three that you need to pick up, It may be all even.
You come to Georgia, and now it's just a matter of either going to be 50-50 or 51-50.
In Georgia, again, an interesting perspective we'll talk about.
Let's just go ahead and talk about Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock right now.
Is it important, if you're a Georgia listener to this podcast in particular, for you to go out and vote, a Republican to go out and vote?
Yes.
I know that it's not for the control of the Senate anymore.
I know it's not what we had hoped it to be, but it still matters.
51 Senators from the Democratic Party in the United States Senate then can control committees, and then they can make sure that they get out whatever they want to get out of committee.
Now, granted, we do have the House now to stop some of this, but that's an important thing, especially when it comes to judges that the Biden administration is going to try and pack through here the next two years.
Keeping that 50-50 means that it has to come to the floor, and then it makes it a lot harder to get those judges out, and it means Democrats are putting more pressure, especially on judges that are on the fringe of being appointed.
So the 51-50 matters.
You're either going to have a power sharing agreement or you're going to have complete control by the Democrats.
So Republicans in Georgia, if you want to see Republicans maintain at least a power sharing agreement in the United States Senate, you need to get out and vote for Walker.
Walker experienced a 200,000 less votes than Governor Kemp and other members of the Republican statewide tickets, which by the way, this idea that Georgia had flipped and Georgia was a purple state and it didn't happen.
In fact, if it wasn't for the Walker race, it was a complete beatdown in Georgia by Republicans led by the Governor Brian Kemp and others on the Democratic candidates up and down the line.
And it's just amazing to me the very little that is being reported about this.
I mean, there were AJC reporters and rightfully so wrote books about how Georgia had flipped.
Well, it flipped in one election for...
Very different rings, mainly the fact that Republicans did not show back up to the polls in a runoff last year.
Not necessarily that Georgia had switched ideologically.
Had we become probably a little closer vote-wise, yeah.
But I think when you look at the vote totals now in the governor's race and the lieutenant governor's race and secretary of state and all these others, we're back to where we were in the, you know, the 2014, 2016, all the cycles in which, you know, the statewide candidates were at about 53%, 54%, 52% in that range.
So, Georgia, Walker has to win back or find a way to get those voters who did not vote for him in the general election just a couple weeks ago back in the camp of the Republicans.
We'll see if that happens.
If that happens, then Walker should win fairly easily.
Right now, the race is, again, still too tight to call because, you know, People are having a real struggle.
And I'm just going to say this.
I'm voting for Walker.
I'll vote for Walker again.
I want to see the Republicans maintain control.
I think Walker's done a much better job with his messaging.
I think he's done a much better job convincing people he can be a senator.
Whether that resonates is left to be seen.
And Warnock, for the first time, is actually having to run On the defensive, and he doesn't look good doing it.
And, you know, he tries to get into this character and competency debate with Walker.
Well, he turned it right around, and Warnock has his own character and competency issues as well.
So, again, December 6th for many of us in Georgia can't come fast enough, especially if you try to watch TV. So again, as I sort of gave that Senate route there and interspersed this with why the elections happened, you can see it in these different states.
Candidates matter, messaging matter, and also incumbency matter.
That's something to look at.
I think, frankly, it was only Raphael Warnock who didn't just outright win, who was an incumbent.
You look at the states that we were looking to flip.
You look at Nevada and Arizona.
It is hard to beat an incumbent.
A lot of people...
Statistics have shown this, you know, discussions, polling, however you want to put it, have shown for years that many times the incumbency just by itself can give you a 1% or 2% advantage.
In races in which that are not that contested or not that well-known, the incumbency can be as high as 5% to 10%.
The people just go down through there, and if they don't know who the other person is, they just seek the incumbent.
And as much polling can be done about how people want to see change and everything come along, it doesn't really affect because people would stick to what they know as opposed to taking a chance on somebody they don't.
So incumbency mattered a great deal as well.
So, you saw this in the House.
You saw it in the Senate.
The House is a two-cycle advantage with which they have gained seats.
I think that's also a missing story from this.
Kevin McCarthy and the leadership team with Tom Emmer and others, although they did not achieve what was out there in the bravado that was said before the election, right before the election, of picking up 30, 40, 50, even 60 seats, They still picked up enough seats to flip the house.
And I think that's, when you think about power structure and power dynamic in Washington, D.C., that is very, very important.
So, as I sit back here and I look at this election cycle, and I wanted just to do this from a very, you know, sort of calm perspective and just say, hey, what am I seeing here?
Again, as we just talked about, candidates matter, messaging matters, concumbency matters, still a great deal.
But it also...
There's something else that I think has come true here, and it's time for Republicans to take a real reflective look.
I will do more about this in the future.
But just to safely say, Republicans are going to have to Begin to play by the same rules Democrats play by.
They're going to have to begin to play by the same rules.
And what I mean by that is, is in states in which ballot harvesting is legal, in which registering day of is legal, in which registering, you know, again, however you want to look at it, that most of us feel like does at least some damage to electoral integrity.
Here's the difference.
Republicans who got in and fought, and you're seeing this in California, Republican members and Republican parties were going out and playing within the law of the state.
They're not doing anything illegal.
We may not like it, but the ballot harvesting is legal.
The registering is legal.
Then you've got to do it.
And I want to break this down further in another podcast, but it's got to be said, we cannot continue to become the two parties in which the Democratic Party uses the law and the advantages of early voting, mail-in voting, however you want to put it, to their advantage and ballot harvesting in states where it is logistically legal.
You can't have this continually happen.
What you can do, though, is play by the rules.
This would be about like, and I'm going to describe this for you out there before some of you Republicans get all antsy about it.
Let me just explain it like this.
You know, and Mark Walker and I discussed this just the other day on the podcast.
You can't have two teams on the field of play playing by different rules.
You know, a major league baseball analogy, you can't have one team not using a designated hitter and the other team using a designated hitter.
Why would you do that?
If the designated hitter is allowed, don't put your...
Don't put your pitcher up there hitting who can't hit the broad side of his back of anything.
And then you could put up a designated hitter who hits 50 home runs a year.
I'll just leave it at this.
Republicans, it's time to take seriously the ideas of the basics again in politics.
You've got to do it.
You've got to have the right message.
You've got to connect to the right ways.
And you can't simply talk to the same people all the time.
You do that, you're going to have a problem.
So there's a wrap-up.
We'll probably have more of this, especially as the Walker race and Warnock race comes to a head down here in Georgia.
But I just wanted to give you here to start this week off, this Thanksgiving week, Just an overview, a little bit, a two-week-later hot take, if you would, on where we're at in the 22 election cycle, which looks like, as we said, is going into a House majority of about 221, 222 possibly for the Republicans, a Senate that is going to be, again, deadlocked.
So that's where we're at right now.
I've had a lot of people ask about, and this was something I wanted to remind you before we get finished here.
TheDougCollinsPodcast.com, there is a, when you go there, there's a place where you can email me.
And I do get a lot of emails and suggestions for the show.
If you have a suggestion for the show, please do so.
I've had some requests for breaking down the Dobbs decision in the abortion case further into the two arguments, sorry, decisive, some other things that's going on.
I'm looking into doing that, so please, but send your suggestions on about what we can, how we can break this down further, especially When we look at this election cycle and then looking ahead to a 2024 presidential race that has already started.
So, a lot left to go here as we continue our journey together on the Doug Collins Podcast.
Thank you for being a part and we'll see you again on the next time on the Doug Collins Podcast.
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