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Nov. 9, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
24:14
Hot takes from Election Night
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, good morning.
It is an early morning here on this podcast day here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
Glad that you are with us.
We're excited to take this day just to do some hot takes.
I'm not going to go into in-depth on some of the election results because frankly we just don't have some of the numbers to go in-depth with.
It's going to be interesting though and I tell you from what we've been talking about as you heard on the podcast last week, some things just did not Some did.
I mean, I think if you look at, let's just go over what did seem to pan out as we thought it would.
Except for Pennsylvania, which we always thought was a, again, was a possibility that was a difficult race between Fetterman and Oz.
It does appear Fetterman has won that race.
So out of the five that we had to hold, we lost one.
We lost Pennsylvania, which means, as you know from the podcast that we've always talked about, that you have to Now pick up two for Republicans to take control.
Right now, I'm looking for the one, because right now we've not seen that.
Now, Arizona is still very much coming in.
These numbers are tightening up out there.
Arizona, just like in the last lesson in 2020, will be one in which we're going to have to wait several days for.
But Masters is running significantly behind Kelly in that race, and Lake is running better than Masters.
So, again, They're both down.
Kerri Lake and Blake Masters are both down to the Democrats, Hobbs and Kelly, but the numbers have been coming in overnight a lot more Republican than they were in the early votes, which were decidedly Democrat.
Let me just stop right here for just a second.
Before we get into any further, that is one of the hot take takeaways that we have seen.
The elections now have transformed into Democrats voting early and Republicans voting on Election Day.
That has become not only more of a trend we saw even in 2020, 2018. Early on, this would have not been true.
Early on, what election early voting would have had.
Typically, Republicans had some early votes.
So did Democrats.
But it was not as pronounced as we're seeing now.
I'll give you an example of Arizona.
We just saw that most of all of the early votes that came in were decidedly Democrat.
Georgia, again, this was one, and we'll talk about more in depth here in just a minute, but Georgia, the early voting was just, I mean, more than just decidedly Democrat.
It was overwhelmingly Democrat, but yet when the day of voting came in, early day of voting, these went overwhelmingly Republican, and you had Brian Kemp who won Easily over Stacey Abrams.
And down the ticket where they were in the first 45 minutes or hour of reporting when these early ballots were being counted.
Kemp, everybody on the ticket was down.
All that flipped on the day of voting.
So what is really interesting now, from a perspective of a Republican and a Democrat, the Democrats now depend on early voting.
They're using the mail, the early voting by mail, or they're using early voting to get their votes out.
Republicans are now depending on day of voting, which is going to be interesting over time, because it's always been one of those things if you have issues on day of, if you had last minute things come up, depending on the day of voting is typically has a little more fraught to it, especially if you're in a state like Georgia and others who especially if you're in a state like Georgia and others who have a very generous early voting time frame going So three weeks where you can actually in-person early vote during the week and on weekends.
So again, this is just changing the dynamics.
That's just a quick hot take that came out of what we're looking in these elections.
Real quick, let's go through it, though.
Ron Johnson is looking like he will take Wisconsin, although that is, again, still closer than I think many of us predicted or thought.
You've got J.D. Vance easily winning Ohio.
Ted Budd easily winning North Carolina.
Fetterman beating Oz in these numbers right now.
Fetterman has beat Oz in Pennsylvania.
We have held Missouri with...
Shultz out there, so that's, you know, Missouri held, Ohio held, looks like Wisconsin held, the North Carolina held.
That, again, now puts us in some interesting seats.
Now, I will say early on, Alaska, and this is very early.
I mean, and again, we're here in the morning of the day after the election on a Wednesday morning going at this.
But it does appear that Murkowski in Alaska could be at least early vote numbers are turning out.
Trubisky up there is giving Murkowski a run for her money in Alaska.
Now, that is still a Republican.
A Republican wouldn't change the dynamic of the Republican Senate, but it is something interesting.
To watch, given the fact that the Democrat in the congressional race is winning handily over Sarah Palin and others at this point in the early returns from Alaska as we go forward.
I've been asked all morning and late into last night as I was doing the commentary on networks from both Fox, Newsmax and others, what does this mean?
Where does it go?
Let's just try and sum up where we are.
What was very interesting, very good last night if you're coming from a conservative state.
Number one was Florida.
Ron DeSantis took a seat in which he won by really.1,.2% four years ago and won by 20 points.
I mean, it was a complete beatdown in the state of Florida.
Now, Charlie Crisp was an awful candidate, should have never won.
But then again, nobody wanted to run against Ron DeSantis in Florida because Ron had built up not only a very high-profile Governorship with keeping the state open, working to keep businesses going.
But he also, and there's a beyond the gap there of governance that Ron DeSantis and his administration did very well.
And that was, he did the administrative part well.
I mean, the businesses were kept in form, the schools were kept running, the money was going out, the trains, so to speak, ran on time.
When the hurricane hit, it was...
I mean, you don't hear anything out of Ian.
And Ian was one of the most devastating hurricanes to hit South Florida on that side, on the western side that's been in years.
And yet, I mean, you know, the bridges are being put back together.
People's homes are getting put back together.
They've reduced the regulatory burden.
And again, the mainstream media has left Florida.
If they had not been doing so well, Florida would be inundated with national press talking about how bad DeSantis did.
And he didn't.
He did a great job working that out.
Again, now everybody is saying this is now an early referendum on 2024, especially with Donald Trump saying he's going to announce for president next week.
Again, I think it makes an interesting case to see what happens as we go forward here.
Will DeSantis take that opportunity to run against Donald Trump?
Will others jump into the race?
A lot of the conversation is that will be true.
Again, my hot take at this second is I say just hold on.
I'm not sure DeSantis is wanting to use his political capital, although it is immense at this point, to run against the former president.
The former president had a lot of Elections picked candidates in certain, especially the governor's races that did not come through last night.
But for President Trump, that is not a concern on his.
He always keeps looking forward.
He never looks back.
So again, I think too early to tell.
But Florida, definitely a bright spot.
Miami-Dade County, I mean, just the demographic breakdown that DeSantis and the others on the ticket were able to bring, pretty amazing.
Georgia.
Georgia, again, Brian Kemp did away with Stacey Abrams, no problems.
Higher than most had expected.
Abrams had basically, as we've talked about here on the podcast, sort of basically had started phoning it in, had quit, and the end result showed it.
Where that actually is different, though, is in the Senate race.
And this is where I'm going to go back to probably the biggest issue that we've talked about on this podcast many times, and that is that fundamentals matter.
Fundamentals matter when it comes to race.
Candidates matter, and how candidates run matters.
Walker...
Warnock is an example here.
Both of them are flawed candidates in the sense that the public in polling didn't trust them.
Their fave, unfave numbers were upside down.
And it does appear, though, that Walker had a little bit more of a tug on that issue of going down.
Because you could see the breakdown that Kemp outperformed Walker significantly, almost four points or more, in this election cycle.
Upwards of almost 100,000, 200,000 votes, depending on where we're at right now.
What does that mean?
It means that people did not want to vote.
They wanted to vote for Brian Kemp, maybe because of how he handled the past four years as governor, the elections, the pandemic, everything else.
And for whatever reason, the same Republicans could not vote for or did not vote for Herschel Walker.
I saw a lot of signs yesterday that says that people were going to be voting for Brian Kemp and others on the Republican ticket, but they simply left the So, again, we'll see what happens right now.
Right now, currently, as we speak here early on a Wednesday morning, the Republican and Democrat in Georgia look to be headed to a runoff, although there is room right now because Warnock is actually ahead by about 30,000 votes.
There is some room that if the numbers broke very, very well for Warnock, he could win without a runoff.
That would be, I think, an Amazing story, devastating for Senate hopefuls in Georgia, but it is still there.
That means that this race is going to a runoff December 6th.
We'll see.
That's four weeks of just flat-out spending and money.
And again, if you look at what we've been talking about here on this podcast for a while, this is also...
The possibility that we could see Georgia become the epicenter for the battle for the Senate.
With the five holding, except for Pennsylvania, it means we needed to pick up two.
Right now, the only places to pick those up, New Hampshire was a loss.
Washington State was a loss.
Again, very much stretches that never materialized.
Nevada, Laxalt is up.
As we speak, we'll see if that holds.
If that's true, then there is your even.
So we pick up one, we lose one.
Arizona, we talked about a few minutes ago, still yet to be determined, and then Georgia.
So, again, if you picked up, if we ran a clean sweep, which You know, again, given the results of last night is unlikely, but let's just say we do pick up Masters in Lake, do make a large comeback in Arizona from these early vote numbers into the day of voting, and they win.
Then that gives us two to one, which means that Republicans are back in control of getting the Senate, but yet you still have Georgia out.
And, you know, If they hold there, then we're in the good position.
But again, the Republicans have the harder run now.
They've got to make the run, which looks more and more like it coming back down to Georgia.
So we'll see how that flows.
Governor's races across the states, Michigan.
Michigan was one from an interesting perspective.
You know, the governor candidates mattered, and in Mastriano and Pennsylvania just never seemed to campaign, never got going, and lost badly.
And there's going to be many people who are going to say that, you know, just the absolute...
Fallout disaster, however you want to put it, for the Maestriano campaign affected the Oz campaign.
That'll be debated ad nauseum here for the next little bit.
But Maestriano was never a factor.
That hurt, I think, a lot of Republican issues in the state of Pennsylvania.
Go to Tudor Dixon, who I think was a good candidate, just got, again, got overwhelmed by an incumbent, Gretchen Whitmer up there, who just, again, I don't understand.
I'm going to be blunt with you.
I don't understand Michigan.
Michigan's a wonderful state.
I got a lot of good friends up in Michigan.
But yet, in the same election cycle, you reelect the governor, who shut everything down, was a hypocrite on so many of those issues.
And also, you give the state, House, and Senate to the Democrats.
I don't get that.
I mean, for all the people, I mean, schools were closed, people were closed.
I mean, this was just a disaster for the last few years from the pandemic, and yet now Democrats have full control.
The first time they have the trifecta up there in a long time.
You respect the voters at the end of the day, but that one was one, frankly, I just didn't understand.
New York.
Lee's Ellen's not going to win in New York.
There was a hope.
It didn't happen.
But on the congressional side of that, we pick up a good many seats, four to five seats in New York in the House.
In fact, right now, with the Republicans taking control of the U.S. House, which it does appear they will do, After some slip-ups, it won't be near the numbers that we've talked about.
225, I had already said 225 to 235 was the number.
And 225 being a bad night, well, right now 225 would actually look pretty good considering the numbers that are coming in.
It does mean that the Republicans will control the speakership, will control the agenda.
Now we'll just have to see, really, how does that affect Kevin McCarthy?
McCarthy was upwards of 60 seats.
All the euphoria of 240, 230 seats, it means that there was some bad polling.
It means that there was some bad information out there.
There was some exuberance that should have not been taken into account.
You know, does that affect McCarthy in his speaker run?
Now, it is also worth noting, though, McCarthy has been the driving force for getting the House back.
They won 14 seats in the 2020 election when nobody thought they would.
Now they're going to take back the House.
I think McCarthy rightfully deserves a great deal of credit for that.
But when it doesn't meet the expectation game, that is a problem.
For McCarthy, there's already rumors Scalise may mount a leadership challenge for the speakership.
It could throw out some of these other races down the leadership ticket going forward.
So again, who knows at this point how that's going to fall out over the next 24 to 48 hours.
By Friday's podcast, I'll have maybe some more word for you on that.
We'll see what this comes.
It also signals very much a gridlock in Congress.
The House will be Republican controlled, but the House will not be, and I've said this, I can't tell you how many times that you've heard it here on the podcast, and I've said it on interviews, the House is a pure majority body.
It is up to the Republicans to pass bills.
If they cannot get 218 Republicans, they will simply fail as a majority.
That is something they have to face.
So for people who've never voted yes on appropriations bill, people who've never voted yes on other bills, if they continue to vote no, then Republicans cannot pass legislation unless they have Democrat support, which means that you're not going to get the most conservative bills, which means you're not going to get a lot of the priorities that conservatives want.
Especially if people hold out.
And then if you go too far to pick up his other votes, you could lose Republicans and you'll definitely lose all Democrats.
Again, putting it squarely back on the majority.
That's what Kevin McCarthy and the leadership team in the House face, given the turnout and the results from last night.
Governing matters, folks.
And again, Pelosi did an amazing job keeping a very slim majority, three or four vote majority intact, and passing what she did.
The question now becomes, could Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans do the same thing?
We'll see.
I mean, it's going to be tough because, I mean, you've got a lot of votes on the House side that, you know, just, you know, frankly from history will tell you that this is going to be a very tough cycle to get anything passed in the House.
And then with the Senate possibly being still in Democratic hands, At this moment, that's a concern.
I'm going to do a much bigger breakdown on the Georgia runoff, if that's where it actually heads, the Georgia runoff between Warnock and Walker later.
Right now, it's just too early to do that breakdown.
I want to take some time to look at some numbers, see where Walker or Warnock's path is, to see the national climate.
Is Georgia going to be the battle for control of the Senate?
If it is, then this race could be, that will affect how it, I think, will turn out for both Walker and for Warnock.
So we'll discuss those as well.
But just at the end of the day, it goes back to something that we've talked about here and I've had guests on before.
And I'm just going to simply leave it at this this morning.
And that is, candidates matter.
Fundamentals matter.
For all of you out there who get hung up on who endorsed who, and even though they're great endorsements, if President Trump had a good run of endorsements, and Democrats say they had a good run of endorsements.
At the end of the day, it's about candidates.
It's about candidates and matter.
And if you get the endorsement of Donald Trump and you're like Maastroano in Pennsylvania and you do absolutely nothing with it, then you're going to lose.
And that's exactly what happened there.
If you don't run very good campaigns or don't have the money in a place like New Hampshire, where Maggie Hansen should have gotten beat, General Bowling, I mean, he may have done the best he could, but it just didn't work.
And it doesn't matter who the endorsing person is.
If you don't have the oomph behind you, if you don't have the campaign team, if you don't have the structure, folks, Get over this thought that just everybody is on the same page as you are and that they'll just see the obvious that you think is obvious.
That's just not true.
So again, number one, candidates matter.
Fundamentals matter.
We saw that in the primaries in Georgia.
We saw it in a couple other states.
This is still the trend.
That's what we saw.
I think that's the biggest takeaway that I can take up early on this Wednesday morning is fundamentals matter and we've got to ensure the candidates understand that.
Number two, governing is going to be hard for the Republicans in the House.
They're going to take the majority, but governing, which is what you're mainly sent to Washington, D.C. to do, is going to be very difficult.
Next few days is going to determine a lot on what leadership elections look like and how the House will function.
Senate is still up in the air.
We'll talk more about that as we go forward.
But right now, the voters...
Gave us a glorious mess, if you would, in many ways.
A very mixed picture across the country.
If Biden says he has a mandate here, that's just a lie.
Although he did, and the Biden team did something that normally doesn't happen, and that is they defied the odds of a midterm, a first midterm.
And nobody, again, was banking on that.
Historically, the House majority would lose 27 seats.
They're not going to come anywhere close to that.
In this election, barring certain changes.
So there is some solace in the Biden administration they can take in that.
If they were able to keep the Senate, that's a huge victory, as you look forward to it.
But yet, in places like Georgia and Florida and other places, Republicans just steamroll.
Ohio, I mean, it's becoming non- You know, purple.
It's a red.
So these are all the kind of things that you need to look at as we go.
Wanted to give you a quick taste of where we're at here on this morning.
These are the hot takes as we go.
Before I go, though, you've got to go to the DougCollinsPodcast.com forward slash DC. We've got a trip coming up in April.
I want you to be a part.
Go there.
You can get the benefits of Money off for the trip.
We're going to tour the monuments.
We're going to go to the Capitol.
We've got the Museum of the Bible.
We're going to go with Eric, the travel guy.
We're going to have a great time up there.
Lisa and I would love to have you reserve your spot on the bus trip to D.C. in April.
Make sure that you get in.
Go to the DougCollinsPodcast.com forward slash D.C. to get all the details and to sign up for the triples.
Love to have you be a part of that as we move forward.
Looking forward to that trip as we go.
But for now, signing off on this podcast.
Go out and have a great day.
Look forward to talking to you again soon as we do more of diving into what this 2022 election cycle means and what it doesn't mean.
God bless you.
Take care.
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