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April 27, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
50:38
Part 2 Democrats Election Year Meltdown: A State by State look
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Okay everybody, we're back on this episode.
I want you to know if you're enjoying what you're hearing, if you like listening and finding out about elections, we talked about the elections coming up, we've talked about immigration, we've had a lot of things, we've had a lot of guests on here recently.
We've always said on this podcast that I wanted to have a full rounded podcast that not only deals with politics, but life and everything else.
I want you to take this podcast, if you're already a subscriber, download it, make sure that you're sharing it.
If I find five to ten people that you know would like to be interested in maybe an episode that you've listened to, let them have it by sharing that.
Also make a comment wherever you get your podcast downloads.
Make sure you comment, like it.
That helps us out as we spread this reach of conservative message, of a whole life message as we go forward.
So again, I want to thank you for being a part of the Doug Collins podcast.
We're excited.
But now it is time for part two of our election overview.
Remember last time we got together, we talked about where the election stood in this 2022 election cycle.
And we talked about a lot of the reasons why Democrats are getting very, very concerned about this.
To add on to that, before we get into specific elections, and I told you we're going to dig into some of the specifics around the country in these election races, I want to share also some more information that's started to come out and we're starting to see a bigger concern from Democrats.
Not just the 2022 cycle, they're concerned about the 2024 cycle and they're looking ahead because as I shared in the last episode, One of the things that you have to deal with is the Senate itself is up every, a third of it is up every two years.
So turnover or those are in election cycle.
What the Senators say, they're either in cycle, they're out of cycle, or they're getting ready to go into cycle.
So every two year is a third of the Senate is up.
On this one, it looks like the latest polling are saying that it is a lean Republican election.
2024 is one in which it looks more also of a bigger lean Republican election based on the Trump voters, based on Biden voters, and based on where we're seeing it right now.
So what the concern is Among Democrats right now, and we're just laying this out there, is that the fact that if they look at 2022 and they lose the House by a fairly large majority and they lose the Senate by four or five seats, there is a possibility that a Republican, probably Donald Trump, being reelected in 2024 and having the possibility of having a veto-proof Senate.
This is how real the fear among Democratic consultants are at this point concerning where we are in this election cycle.
So this is something that I want us to point out and why we talk about these races, why we're getting dug in.
But it's also for a conservative out there.
If you're listening, do not...
And from my perspective, those are the things we want to see.
But do not get...
We're not complacent.
The worst thing that can happen right now is we get complacent from a conservative standpoint saying that Joe Biden is bad, Joe Biden has done this, the Biden administration is terrible.
I mean, we start looking at all the problems of inflation and the things that we talked about just the other day that are dragging down Democratic prospects for this cycle.
But if we simply depend on people assuming people know this is happening and assuming that we're just gonna win and we miss those bread and butter issues that we talked about, like we have seen that have worked across the country where parents' rights, those issues around schools, the issues around critical race theory, the issues around gender equality, these things that are creeping into our classrooms and where you have the issues that are developing Among parents being taken out of the educational loop.
These are kind of things that people are wanting to find out.
They're wanting to find out about inflation.
They're wanting to find out, you know, how do we make the economy better without raising the inflation rate, the interest rates that they become to depend on.
These are the issues that we're going to have to focus on if conservatives are going to take the 2022 cycle, win the House, win the Senate, and then be in a great shape for what would be coming up in the 2024 cycle Again, which will be a presidential cycle, and we do all this over again, as you would have sensed.
So before, I just wanted to lay that back out because this is important.
And especially as we talk about some of these states, turnout is going to be key.
And this is what we saw happening.
I spoke about this the other day on the podcast, was that if conservatives don't show up, that we can lose.
We saw that in Georgia in January of 2021. Where Republicans in some of the most conservative districts did not show back up in 8-10-15% margins, which easily cost David Perdue his Senate seat and could have possibly cost Kelly Leffler a race against Raphael Warnock.
So this is where we're at right now.
I wanted to give an update.
We're going to do this again later as time gets a little bit closer.
We see some of these primaries get out of the way.
And we're going to be talking specifically more primaries today and not the general election.
But I'll also give sort of a brief preview of where this is headed.
So let's just dig right in.
First up, Arizona.
Arizona is a pivotal state.
Arizona has also been one of the states that has been at the center of the election integrity fight.
This has been one in which there have been numerous problems that have been documented out of Maricopa County in the last election cycle, and it has just caused a stir out there with the Republican Party, with the legislature, and the back and forth that has been going on there.
Now, one of the key elements in most all of the races we're going to talk about today Is the endorsement or lack of endorsement from Donald Trump.
These are going to play heavily in these cycles as we go through and this is something we need to be aware of and how they're playing in these different states.
To make it very clear, Donald Trump is a very large force in the Republican primaries.
He is still the most sought after endorsement.
He still moves voters.
He has a large contingent.
But what we're also seeing Is that in some of the races it is the candidate is playing as much as the endorsement.
So let me put it in the perspective of this.
If you have a race in which Donald Trump endorses a candidate that is already well-liked, I'll use an example here, Herschel Walker in Georgia, it makes an almost unbeatable team.
In which you have the President Trump endorsement, you have the popularity of Herschel Walker to start with already with name ID. He's an icon in the state from his football playing career.
Still getting used to the political aspect, but if you combine those two together in a Republican primary, it's almost unbeatable.
However, we are seeing in some of the different areas that the endorsement helps but is not the determinant.
So if the candidate is not liked or the candidate is not So as we dig in here, this is important because Arizona is a place in which we're seeing A lot of movement.
Now, this is the Mark Kelly seat.
This is the seat that Kelly won in the special election out there in the last cycle.
He is the husband of Gabby Giffords, the former congresswoman who was shot.
They have raised a ton of money out there in this race.
And what we have seen up until now was Mark Kelly playing more with the Biden administration, much more on the very acquiescent to the liberal policies.
He was going along with Build Back Better.
He went along with The transportation bill, the stimulus package last year on COVID, really sort of playing the team role in that.
Lately, however, as the polls have been getting closer, he is, depending on the polls you're looking at right now in Arizona, you're looking at Mark being up You know, in an overall perspective, looking probably up around eight, nine points.
Been a while since that has been polled between Republican and Democrat, but he's been up five to six, all of which can evaporate once I believe there is a Republican candidate primary.
The primary ends there.
Now, Mark Brevovich, who is the Attorney General there, He received what most would not want to receive in a Republican primary in the state of Arizona.
He received, just in the last few days, received an anti-endorsement from Donald Trump.
In other words, Donald Trump was not happy with the way that he conducted the after-election I'm not endorsing this guy.
In fact, I'm encouraging you not to be a part of him.
Blake Masters, some others out there who are running Why is this Senate race important?
This is a flip seat.
This is one in which you use, it's a Democrat seat that is a vulnerable Democrat seat that can be used to flip off of this 50-50 majority of the Democrats given the fact that they have the Vice Presidency.
And that is why you're going to see a lot of money poured into Arizona from the Democrat perspective to keep Mark Kelly going.
But the Republicans are working very hard to make this not happen.
It's going to be interesting now that with the latest polling that came out showing Abramovich in the lead here over Lamont and Masters, how this negative endorsement from Donald Trump will play.
We'll just have to see as that goes.
Now, there's also a heavily contested governor's race out there from the Republican perspective that you need to be at attention to as well.
Because Kerry Lake, who is in the lead now at 29, is a Trump-endorsed candidate for governor.
Governor Ducey out there is not running in through...
Term limit expiration there and chose not to run in the Senate race out there.
So this is an open field.
Lake is winning that one right now in the early primaries we go.
This primary though, however, is not until August 2nd.
Let's put this in a mindset of things that are coming up in August 2nd.
You're still about four months off.
That's an eternity.
In electoral politics, especially primary politics.
So it's going to be interesting just to see how that one will come out over the next little bit.
So I wanted to start in Arizona.
Arizona is one in which also I think turnout is going to be key.
I think it's been heavy in that primary.
Then we'll see how it turns out in November.
But right now, for the Republicans to put two candidates up That can win statewide is important there because that is a flip seat.
That is one that if you're looking for the Senate Republicans to say, how are we going to gain the Senate?
Arizona is a must flip seat.
Now we're going to turn to one that is a little bit more interesting, I think, in just the terms of dynamics.
It's also another August 2nd primary, and it's an open seat in Missouri.
This is a seat Roy Blunt is leaving, and it is opened up on the Republican side.
I'm going to focus mainly on the Republican side right now because Missouri Probably not flip Democrat in this.
This one is a hold seat for Republicans, so they've got to hold it.
But just as a short reminder, it's not been that long ago that Missouri had Democratic senators in this seat, and the Republicans need to be aware of that.
So putting the right person in this slot is going to be It's important for the hold that we'll be looking for in this cycle.
So let's dive into it.
A lot of people here.
I've made the mention before in this election that there was a lot of people that opted out of this race.
And I think that's an important look as you begin to see this field put together.
And that was, you didn't see Jason Smith, a popular Congressman from the southeastern corner of Missouri opted out.
His name had been mentioned many times.
In fact, this time last year, it was almost a certainty that he was going to get into this race.
He chose not to.
Ann Wagner, a longtime politician and former ambassador, member of Congress still, from around St. Louis suburbs area, also opted out of this race.
Many people thought that she would run in this and did not.
So that then left it open.
When you look at an open seat, it leaves it open to anybody who believes they have a chance.
The ones who have jumped into this of the contenders, we'll say, is Vicki Hartsler and Billy Long from the House.
They both have safe Republican House seats.
They draw from an area in which they have been reelected from many times over.
So they're very familiar to their voters and they're part of the state.
So that brings a certain amount of votes to the table.
The question will be is how they then appeal to the Missouri Republicans as a whole.
Now, interestingly enough, Donald Trump has not endorsed in Missouri as of this time.
He did send out an interesting tweet about a month or so ago saying, have you considered Billy Long?
He said this is not an endorsement, but hey, he's running for Senate.
He's a good guy.
This is, I think, a hat tip to Billy.
Billy has been one of the President Trump's strongest supporters.
Trump trained.
I mean, he was on the uh the front edge of the 2016 election with donald trump and and has been uh throughout the donald trump's presidency and they're in the house uh billy is a gregarious uh guy who brings a lot of charisma to the table but so far it's not really shown up in the uh polling there and you know it'll be interesting to see if he pulls his own district how that will then play out in the rest now He's also been looking very much for that endorsement.
I think by the Twitter post that the president made, he's not going to be getting that endorsement, but the president wanted to be kind to someone who had been very good to him, and that's what we saw.
Vicki Harsler.
Vick Harsley, I served with both Billy and Vickie in the United States House.
Good people, very quiet.
If you would have asked me of the two people from Missouri who would have actually started and actually ran for this Senate seat, these were not two that I would have picked out to start with.
But Vickie is called steam.
She is...
And some of the polling that we have actually seen, she is leading in these races, and as we look at it, this is going to be a fight to August 2nd.
The latest polling in the Republican primary has Hartzler with a slight lead, with Schmidt having a slight lead, so it's gone back and forth.
And I've gotten into another name.
Schmitz, Eric Schmidt, and Greidens.
Eric Greidens are both in this race.
And this is a four-person race if you come down to it.
Now Gritens is a former governor who resigned in a scandal, a family issue, an adultery scandal that was very public.
He resigned from it.
This was dealing with a woman who had accused him of taking pictures and blackmailing her in this affair.
He resigned from his seat as governor.
He has taken time to, I guess, politically rehabilitate himself, and for much of this primary campaign has actually been leading this race.
This is, just in a fairness knot here, this is one that national Republicans are scared for.
They believe, and it's been reported, that some, not all, but some national Republicans believe that if Gritens is the nominee, that this could be a seat that could be in play in November with the Democrat.
And then as he was leading, more came out from his ex-wife accusing of abuse, physical abuse of his family, her, the kids.
This seems to have taken some steam out of the Greitens campaign as far as the numbers goes and we're seeing a movement now of him moving down.
So what does that leave?
That leaves Vicki Hartsler, who received the endorsement of Josh Hawley, who is the other senator, very much an established figure in political life in Missouri, who shares a campaign team, by the way, with Vicki Hartsler, has come out and endorsed Vicki In this race, that has made Vickie's stock jump.
Hartzler's numbers have come up, and we're seeing that in the polling that has taken place.
She's running around 24-25%, and Greitens is still there, although he has come down in recent weeks from that number.
And then Schmidt, who is the actual Attorney General of Missouri, who's been running again for over a year in this race, have spoken to him many times on radio and in person.
He's running a strong campaign.
This is someone who's ran statewide, had won statewide.
He has built a presence of suing the Biden administration.
He's run on that strong conservative background.
And he is now competing with Hartzler for the bid here in the state of Missouri.
How this turns out, it'll be interesting.
I think if you look at it, Gritens is the concern of most of the establishment Republicans, if you want to put it that way, and seeing that they can hold this seat.
With Schmidt, also with Hartzler, you don't see as much of a concern on the national Republican race if they're either one of those or the nominee.
Those are the top four.
McCloskey is in this.
This is Mark McCloskey.
He came in to the national prominence when him and his wife were fended off the BLM protesters outside his house with his firearms.
This caused a stir, of course, nationwide.
And now he is using that platform to run for Senate.
At this point, not making a big difference.
Most of his numbers are in the low The single digits 2 to 5% in that regard.
But again, just enough to make it interesting.
Billy Long's about double digits.
The rest are running neck and neck between 20 and 25%.
Again, I mention Missouri simply because this is a state that Donald Trump is not endorsed in.
He's talked about it.
I think he's indicated he probably will.
But this is another August 2nd primary.
Not sure where we're going to see that one, if there will be an endorsement in that one, until we see that go on.
Then we turn to one in which Donald Trump has endorsed in.
And this is going to be an interesting race.
It is one that is coming up very soon.
And it is one that has been filled with a little bit of controversy.
It's been filled with controversy simply because Donald Trump has inserted himself into it.
Last fall, at a rally in North Carolina, Donald Trump endorsed Ted Budd for the United States Senate seat.
This is an open seat that is moving forward there.
And it was seemingly, in most reports, was from the encouragement of former Congressman from North Carolina, former Chief of Staff to Donald Trump, Mark Meadows, who facilitated that, helped that endorsement to come along.
Interestingly enough, at the time, Ted Budd was sort of lagging in the polls, not raising a lot of money.
He was down.
Underneath, Pat McCroy, Mark Walker was, and at this time, again, in the Senate race.
A lot of things going on dynamic-wise.
Then you get The Donald Trump factor after the fact.
This is where, again, as we're seeing this, this is going to be a May 17th primary, so we're going to get some of the early tests of not only Republican turnout, but also of the endorsement matched with a candidate in North Carolina with Ted Budd in the endorsement of Donald Trump.
As we look at this, Mark Walker, as all stories go and has come out, and I think most have agreed that at this point the scenario to be true, was encouraged to get out of this race to run back for a congressional seat that he would have had the endorsement of Donald Trump in.
He chose not to.
The reason this is important, if you're looking, Pat McCroy, former governor of the state, He is running second.
He was in a lead for a long time.
And the need there is to get over 30% to avoid a runoff.
So Ted Budd is running over 30% right now.
This is going to be a race that's going to come down to turnout and how many people come out to vote.
And again, take into account Ted's endorsement by Donald Trump.
And then also how much votes does Mark Walker pull from Right now we're not seeing, frankly, Mark Walker pulling votes from Pat McCroy.
If anything, he's pulling votes from Ted Budd.
And so we'll see how this goes.
Budd is not debating in North Carolina.
We're seeing that as a trend.
We'll talk about it a little bit further when we get to the state of Georgia.
But Mark Walker's campaign is making a big deal about that.
Bud's campaign is not.
And since the last campaign rally a few weeks ago in North Carolina with Donald Trump, we have seen Ted Bud's numbers go up.
It is looking more and more like he is going to win the Republican primary there without a runoff.
As it looks, it stands right now.
Again, April, May 17th will tell us a lot in that one.
Now, on the Democratic side, it's a runaway.
The Democratic side is Sherri Beasley.
Beasley is up 33 points on the field here, and most of the other candidates do not have name recognition, name ID, or anywhere else to get here.
North Carolina has also been very hectic as far as states go recently because of They're redistricting.
They went through several cycles of redistricting over the last four or five years, and it is becoming more and more of a problem when you have a Democrat governor with Republican legislatures, and this is what we're seeing with maps.
In some of the most gerrymandered districts that we've seen over the past number of years out of North Carolina, They've now, I think, set on the map that they're going to use for this cycle, but they could change again.
So it's thrown a lot of these districts up into play.
Some of these congressional races are going to get interesting.
Madison Cawthorn was decided early on that he was going to run in a district next to his district, the district he currently represents.
After the maps came back out, he went back to his old district, which has caused a little bit of a stir in the western North Carolina mountains in that part on what is he actually What is he running for?
Where is his attention going to be?
So again, North Carolina is a very active state.
North Carolina is one that we need to watch as we move forward.
And it's going to be one of the first bellwethers, if you would, of where the strength of the Trump endorsement along with the strength of the candidates are going to matter.
And Ted Budd, after a slow start, has picked it up.
He is leading and looks to be, by all accounts in the next four weeks, will take probably the The primary there on the Republican side will face Beasley going into the fall.
And again, this is another one in which is a hold for Republicans, but it is a difficult hold.
North Carolina is a purple state.
It is one that is elected, of course, a Democratic governor just in the last cycle.
These are things that you need to watch in North Carolina.
So again, if you're keeping score, you're having to keep the 50-50 threshold here.
Arizona is a flip.
Missouri is a hold.
North Carolina is a hold.
So for Republicans, that means that they need to keep both Missouri and North Carolina To maintain where we are.
We're not picking up any ground in these states, but you can lose ground.
So a loss in North Carolina would make it difficult to obtain that majority that they're looking for.
All right, as you can see, we're plowing through these and I wanted to, you know, you can listen to us, you know, replay this, save it, share it with your friends because I'm giving you as best as I can an in-depth look into how these races are playing out.
And we're going to continue on because with these races will determine The Senate in particular, some of the governor's races we'll talk about as we go along, as we look at this, but these Senate races will determine the Senate makeup come next January, and that will be important.
Remember, as I started this podcast off on, is that Democrats are not only concerned about losing majorities in this cycle, but they're also concerned about losing majority And even further, in the 2024 cycle, when you probably, it looks at this point, having Donald Trump back on the ticket, having a weakened Joe Biden ticket,
if Joe Biden runs at all, and the fear among some Democrats is that the hole gets worse in 2024 to where you could actually run close to having a veto-proof majority in the United States Senate.
That would be something, or a cloture-closure, that would be really...
It would be devastating for Democrats, but it would be very helpful for Republicans, especially with a Republican in the White House.
All right, moving on.
I'm only going to touch on this one very briefly because it is a purple state.
It is also another one of those states that had a lot of issues in the election and election integrity issues and problems coming out of it.
There have been lawsuits.
There have been in the legislature.
There's just been a lot of things going on.
This is a GOP hold seat.
It appears that it will stay a hold seat at this point in time.
Ron Johnson is running for his third term.
Ron Johnson is always seemingly one of those tough races.
No matter when he has run, he ran six years ago.
People were not sure he was going to win.
He did win six years ago.
Now he's back again running.
The Democrats, this is a Democrat governor state, is a lieutenant governor state.
There's a lot of elections up and down, Wisconsin being one of those really true purple areas statewide.
So you can't just write it off as easily that Ron Johnson will automatically just be reelected here.
But again, when you're talking about holds and gains, this is a hold seat.
So Ron Johnson needs to win.
It looks like Mandela Barnes right now is in the lead.
This was from a poll a month or so back.
In the Democratic primary, we'll see how that turns out.
But again, another late-breaking primary that you need to be aware of.
These are in August 9th.
This is back, as we talked about some of the others, August 9th.
So we'll see.
By then, there's going to be some issues that I think will affect it that I'm going to talk about here at the end of the podcast that we'll preview for you.
Alright, that brings us then to Alabama.
Alabama is on the radar because it has been one of the, as we talked about, This is one that Donald Trump played early in and then has withdrew his endorsement.
Mo Brooks, strong supporter of Donald Trump throughout the time, did not do well in fundraising, did not do well in polls.
In fact, was beginning to fall backwards.
Last fall, he made what Donald Trump determined was a fatal mistake in saying that there was no need to look back at the 2020 elections, that we had to move forward.
And about a month ago, Donald Trump removed the endorsement of Mo Brooks in Alabama for the United States Senate.
Now we'll see.
He was third in the race when this happened.
Nobody expects him to pick up momentum after losing this nomination, but you can already sense the bitterness in Mo Brooks since then.
But then that brings this race down to two people, Katie Britt and Walcott, who is a Person that most people might walk, I know, is from Black Hawk Down.
He's an Army helicopter pilot, war hero.
Someone that is making a name in Alabama, slowly but surely.
But in the polling and the numbers, he is coming up.
And him and Britt are vying for the lead here.
Now, Katie Britt is...
Young person coming into politics, but yet the right seat that she is running for is Richard Shelby's seat.
Shelby is retiring.
So again, this is a hold and it will stay a hold with either one of these candidates winning this primary.
And he has made every intention and also from a very tangible standpoint, put a lot of money behind Britt's campaign.
In this race, again, the Alabama Senate race is coming up very soon.
You're going to see, I believe, Donald Trump play in this again.
I think not from just the simple fact of he withdrew the domination from Mo Brooks, but you're going to see him come back in probably a week, 10 days out, this will be my thought, in this race and endorse one of the other Walcott or Britt and we'll see where That leads.
I would assume it would depend a lot on poll numbers and where people have settled out in this race.
So then this is again coming up very soon.
Not necessarily one that is determinate, but it will be interesting to see where the president Trump lands if he goes back in.
He said he would endorse in Alabama.
We'll see where that is going to go.
If you had an advantage going here, Britt probably has the advantage going into the primary and coming out of this as the nominee.
But Walcott has made a strong showing And with Walcott strong showing his push Brooks basically out of this that and coupled with the fact that Donald Trump withdrew his endorsement, money and votes will probably be flowing out away from Mo Brooks and we'll see how that race goes.
So that is one Again, to watch, it's going to stay Republican, but I wanted to put it on your radar because it is one of the more fascinating races when you deal with the element of Donald Trump's endorsement or unendorsement.
Now we're going to get into two states that are As heavily in play as any states that you're going to see in this cycle and the termination of Senate and even some of the governor's races will play out of these two states.
The first one that we're going to look at is one that is May 17th is the primary and it is contested.
It is hot.
This is the one In which the president just endorsed, and he endorsed Mehmet Oz, Dr. Oz of the TV fame, over David McCormick, who is another conservative in the race who has a lot of support in the Trump world, or Trump backing.
And of course you have Carla Sands, who was an ambassador under Donald Trump running this, and she's at this point running a rather lackluster third in this race.
The question coming up here is what does the Trump endorsement do for Dr. Oz and McCormick?
These are two head to head.
Now, Dr. Oz was way ahead in this race, name ID. I think I've talked to a lot of Pennsylvania voters who at this point in time say, you know, because Dr. Oz, one of the things that people were upset about was that he was living in New Jersey, not from Pennsylvania.
From everything we can gather, I can gather on the ground.
The carpetbagger kind of mentality or coming into a race is not applying.
They all have shown McCormick's, you know, not lived there in a while, Sands.
I mean, it's just, it sort of played out.
What did start playing out is McCormick is backed by some of the largest amounts of outside money in the country coming from Super PACs.
And they began to attack Dr. Oz a few weeks ago, and the numbers reflected it.
For those of you out there who do not believe that negative ads work, you're sadly mistaken.
All you got to do is look at Pennsylvania Race and you'll find out that this is what actually happens when you start a very focused, very large campaign to point out the negatives of another candidate.
And McCormick's campaign has been hitting odds and hitting odds and hitting odds.
Odds has started to hit back, but it took a double-digit lead down to basically even.
So this race is going to come out on the 17th.
Of May.
It's an open seat, the old Pat Toomey seat.
It's going to be interesting to see which one is gonna sneak up ahead here.
And remember, this is a winner take all.
So, I mean, you could literally win the Senate nomination for Republicans with 20, 21, 22%.
And so it's gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Inside advantage, I think the Oz endorsement from Trump is going to help.
But when you've seen the backlash online, you've seen the backlash from conservative activists who were very upset at Donald Trump for endorsing Dr. Oz in this for his past comments, his past statements on a variety of issues from transgender to the president and former president himself and others.
And an unusual statement when he did endorse Dr. Oz, he really clarified the fact that he had not said things good about him in the past, but that he had learned and he had seen the way.
So in other words, Donald Trump believing that Dr. Oz is going to be the kind of Republican he would want to endorse.
A lot of people, though, who are working for McCormick, who have ties, heavily ties, to the Trump administration were disappointed that he would weigh in on this race and endorse Dr. Oz.
So again, I can't say enough about how this one is going to be an early test of that Trump endorsement.
You have two very well-funded candidates.
You have Trump who have candidates who both have their own strong base.
They're both campaigning hard.
They're both on TV. And so what's the determinant?
It could be this Trump endorsement.
So I think if you look at this right now, the Oz endorsement from Trump is going to give him a slight advantage.
We'll see how these last few weeks play out in Pennsylvania.
Now, I don't want to leave Pennsylvania, though, without touching on the Democrat race, which has been very interesting.
One of the issues that we talked about having with the Democrats is their policy issues of the far left.
And basically it's very progressiveness that's not matching up with a lot of the country.
And in that, you got Fetterman and Lamb, John Fetterman and Connor Lamb, for the most part, who are running in this primary.
Fetterman is way out in front right now.
And Fetterman is, if you go to most, I've talked to some Democratic consultants, they would tell you that Fetterman is going to be the harder one to try and keep this seat.
In some ways, although Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and other parts of the state will go heavily for the current Lieutenant Governor, it is a race that is going to stretch the Democratic Party fateful.
Pennsylvania is not a New York, it's not a California, it's not an Illinois.
They're going to have to See how Fetterman would play.
Although he is one statewide, he's now going to have to play on a different stage.
Conor Lamb came out of the Pittsburgh area, very well funded.
He won the House seat.
He has been one of the consistent, more moderate Blue Dog Democrats, if you would, which seemed to have would have played in the state of Pennsylvania very well, but so far it is just not.
Fetterman's money advantage, his notoriety, and others have just played.
And he is well on a double-digit lead right now in this Democratic primary.
I do not see Lamb overcoming that.
And it sets up an interesting race, whether it be Fetterman and McCormick or Fetterman and Oz, that one is going to be a one to race.
Also, the governor's race up there is getting tight as we look at these.
And when you look at the governor's race in Pennsylvania, again, same kind of Dynamics working there.
This is an interesting part.
Doug Mastriano has come from basically out of nowhere to lead in some polls in this race against Lou Barletta.
Lou was a former congressman, a friend of mine when I served in Congress.
Mastriano was very instrumental in the election issue and integrity issues in Pennsylvania.
And has used that to his advantage in this Republican primary.
Lou Barletta's campaign seems to be sluggish, not moving as well.
The President has not endorsed in this race, and most people feel he will not probably endorse in this race.
Although he is close with Lou Barletta, who was very close with him early on in his That brings us to the last one and the last one is Georgia.
I know a lot about this one because it is, of course, something that I have done.
I've run statewide here in the Senate.
I've been in Congress for a number of years.
This race in Georgia, the Senate race is frankly...
Unless something drastically changed all but over.
Walker will win.
It looks to be in the position to win.
The Senate Republican primary, Gary Black, a great candidate, a good friend of mine who I have supported in this race, has just not been able to get the traction.
He's tried his best.
He's done what he can at this point.
The numbers are just not moving.
And there's several others in this Senate seat primary that all have been sort of attractive candidates, but have not been able to overcome the popularity of Herschel Walker in this state.
The former Heisman Trophy winner, the former running back from Georgia, but Latham Sadler, Kelvin King, others, Josh Clark, have just not been able to cut into it.
The interesting point here though, and I think that has many Republicans worried about this race, This is a race against Raphael Warnock.
Raphael Warnock is an incumbent.
He won the special that I was a part of two years ago and has amassed a massive war chest and is just simply waiting at this point to see if it is Herschel Walker.
I think most Democratic officers will tell you they want it to be Herschel Walker.
Like Gritens in Missouri and others have issues in their past of domestic violence and other things that he has attempted to address.
But when you put a lot of money behind these things, you will just have to see how the public will respond to it.
So his popularity head-to-head with Warnock, right now he's winning, But the Democrats have not started attacking Walker.
Most of his opponents have not had the resources to do so in a large way, but you'll see that happen.
So it's shaping up May 24th, another big day here.
Walker is, of course, endorsed by Donald Trump.
Again, as I said earlier in this podcast, you tie a popular candidate with the endorsement of Donald Trump.
Very hard to beat in a Republican primary.
Warnock does not have anybody really to face, so this is setting up to be a Warnock-Walker November.
Walker has chosen not to debate.
He's chosen not to appear on stage with any of the Republicans.
He shows his interviews very carefully.
And so I think that's caused some concern among Republicans in Georgia, myself included, but others.
They just need to be out in practice because this is a seat, if you want to take back the House, the Senate, I'm sorry, from a Republican state, you've got to have Georgia.
Georgia is one of those flip seats.
And if we don't flip Georgia and these other races that we've been talking about, it makes it harder to find where you're going to gain the votes to, or gain the election wins to flip the Senate back to the Republicans.
Now, the other race in Georgia, there's several races.
Donald Trump has endorsed heavily in the state of Georgia.
He endorsed seven candidates in the state.
One is David Perdue, who's running against Brian Kemp.
Brian Kemp's the incumbent governor.
At this time of the race, you would never expect an incumbent governor in a state like Georgia, which is doing well financially and other reasons, to be under the 50% threshold for a runoff.
And so far, consistently, Brian Kemp has been under that number.
With David Perdue, he is leading Perdue at this point double digits.
Trump's endorsed David Perdue.
Perdue has not had the financial resources that Kemp has had.
Kemp has been on the TV. He's been able to use his position as an incumbent governor.
In the state legislature in the legislative session to maintain that.
But this race will get very interesting if that on May 24th it turns into a runoff between David Perdue and Brian Kemp in which all eyes of the world will be on this.
Donald Trump, this is one of the races in which he has done something unusual.
He's actually laid in a half a million dollar gift into the Super PAC supporting David Purdue, so we'll start seeing that money flow out.
You'll start seeing how this race will affect.
This one is a race to the runoff.
If Brian Kemp can avoid the runoff, of course, then he goes into the fall to face Stacey Abrams.
If he gets into a runoff, then it's going to be a lot harder, I believe, for him to keep the nomination and would put Purdue in a race with Abrams in the fall.
Why is this important?
Because in Georgia, the polarization in these races from Kemp to Raffensperger to Carr, these are the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, and others, the anonymity from the Republican base is actual.
Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, went to Fulton County, which is in the city of Atlanta area, to a Republican Party meeting just over a week ago and was basically run off the stage.
He refused.
He got very Hostile questions and he gave back very choppy, very hostile answers and left after two questions.
It was something that did not look good.
And we've seen across the state he has not been very well received in many, not all, but many of the Republican parties around the state.
And he's chosen also at this point to sort of avoid the debate stage in a Republican primary.
The question will be, will Republicans who are very upset and Donald Trump who is beat in the message clearly that Brian Kemp is not the choice that he wants, that Raffensperger and Kemp and Carr need to be defeated.
This primary, the question is what will happen after the primary on whoever wins going into the fall?
And if Kemp happens to pull this off, how will that then motivate the Republican base to then get out and vote in November?
This is going to be one of the keys.
This is why Georgia, in my mind, on May 24th ranks as one of the highest, not only tests for the Trump endorsement, but also the tests where will the Republicans be able to flip the Senate come November.
Right now, every indication And it is.
Walker in the Senate side.
Walker would be leading a head-to-head.
Black's leading a head-to-head.
But again, the Democrats have not started spending money.
Abrams has not really started spending money at all either in the governor's race, waiting to see who the primary opponent of the Republican nominee will be.
So we'll see how this all works out.
There you are, in a short amount of time, a trip around the major inflection points, and there will always be some surprises, but I wanted to lay out these two podcasts side-by-sides.
Share them, like them, use them to give you a primer on what's coming up over the next few months in the Republican primaries, some of the Democratic primaries, the major races that will determine that you're going to be hearing all the time.
Non-stop come October and November.
We want to give you these behind the scenes.
It's not the last time we'll do this.
We'll be a part of this going forward.
So thanks for listening.
Share this.
Make sure that you're caught up.
And if you're in one of these states in which you've got a primary coming up, May 17th, May 24th, some of these coming up, get out and vote.
Conservatives, take your voice.
Make it heard at the ballot box.
That's the way we win races.
If we get out with our ideas, find you a candidate, support them, and get out there and vote.
God bless you.
We'll see you the next time on the Doug Collins Podcast.
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