Tim Pool exposes alleged Democratic cheating in Virginia's midterm strategy, where gerrymandering and misleading Obama ads aim to rig congressional maps within Alexandria to eliminate Republican representation. He critiques these procedural maneuvers as "evil" designs intended to secure House seats despite low favorability, contrasting them with Illinois' districts while warning of potential civil war. Pool further analyzes Wisconsin and Georgia overperformance, speculating on a 2028 moderate ticket featuring Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard to halt Trumpism, ultimately framing these tactics as systematic power grabs rather than democratic competition. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
Participants
Main
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tim pool
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colby johnson
01:45
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barack obama
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Virginia Redistricting Chaos00:14:35
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Right now, everyone is suggesting that Democrats are on their way to a major victory in November, taking back the House.
Now, they will.
Lose the Senate.
And all this is according to the prediction markets, the analysts, and the pollsters.
But there is information coming out that suggests Republicans could actually hold their own.
And there is a decent probability that if everything is on the level, Republicans might actually still hold the House.
You see, Democrats are experiencing record low favorability for this time in a presidential cycle, indicating Republicans do have an opportunity on the merits to convince the American people to vote for the Republican Party come November.
Now, with the war in Iran and all of that controversy, it's looking pretty bad for the Republicans.
But again, people just don't like the Democratic Party.
They are split between the wacky far left and the corporate Democrats.
Everybody's arguing.
So, can they really make it through?
Well, there's one thing that may actually change the game for the Democrats outside of a popular vote.
And that is gerrymandering, the redistricting battle.
Instead of actually saying, you know what, let's have a conversation with the American people about What our government should look like.
They said, let's just change the structure of government so that we win no matter what.
That is a procedural election, not a popular one.
You see, over Easter, I was with my family and we were in Virginia.
We were grabbing dinner and I saw on the TV something strange.
It was a commercial.
This commercial said, Help us, Virginians, protect the integrity of our elections, a temporary measure to protect elections in Virginia.
It was funny because my wife looks at me and she goes, They're lying.
And I said, Yes.
And she goes, They're not asking to protect elections.
They want to redistrict Virginia.
And I'm like, Indeed.
You see, the way they're framing it in these commercials is that we must protect our elections in Virginia, despite the fact this is redistricting for federal districts, which would change the makeup of the federal government's Congress, not the state level.
The interesting thing the new map drawn up in Virginia.
Puts five congressional districts in one city, Alexandria.
Why would you need to do that?
It is patently obvious to anyone what is going on.
Now, of course, they'll say, hey, Republicans started it first.
And that's technically correct.
It is technically correct that in Texas, they decided to redistrict mid-decade, which is abnormal.
At the same time, I would argue, however, the Texan redistricting effort was under the guise of: we have a new election, we have a change in leadership, we should drop our maps to reflect the population, especially considering there are challenges.
To the Voting Rights Act.
Now, don't get me wrong, by all means, you can argue they should not be doing that.
But what I will say is the response from Democrats has been overt.
Okay, we've always gerrymandered, they say.
Illinois is a joke.
Let me show you how Illinois gerrymanders.
And they said, we will eliminate the Republicans from our state.
There will be no Republican representation.
Now, by all means, again, argue that it's a tit for tat.
And I'll say, well, you know, to a certain degree, yeah, that's true.
But this is not, in the end, about tit for tat.
It is about Republicans backing down and saying, we're not going to do it.
And that's what we saw in Indiana.
And Democrats saying, now's our chance.
Again, I'll stress this call it a tit for tat.
And I will point out the Republicans have backed down in several key areas, notably Indiana being a big player here.
They will not redistrict.
They said, we're not going to do it.
It's too far.
And Democrats said, we're going to do it anyway.
So when you have a procedural vote instead of a popular one, then yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out Democrats do win the midterms on that alone.
But let's take a look at what is actually going on.
Before we get started, my friends, head over to timcast.com and click join now to get in the Discord community because it is not what you know, it is who you know.
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Let's jump into the news.
Now, I did cover this the other day, but I want to jump back in real quick for context before I show you what it is Democrats are planning to do.
Midterm alarm bells.
Democrats face a steep favorability deficit.
Despite election gains, just 28% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, but Republicans don't fare much better in the latest polls.
And this is why it matters.
We are supposed to be seeing a major uptick in support for the Democrats because Donald Trump is unfavorable, right?
I mean, people are pissed off about the war in Iran, and even after Trump says ceasefire, they still attack him over it.
Still, this is going to be different.
You see, there are a few factors at play.
One, in the 2018 midterms, can you believe it's been that long?
Trump lost.
And people said, well, the reason why is because MAGA did not show up for these members of Congress.
They wanted to vote for Trump.
They did not want to vote for whoever these guys were.
Perhaps.
Well, now, my friends, the question is will the same thing occur?
Will Trump supporters come out to vote for Republicans?
Well, I would argue the inverse is also possible.
That is, despite Trump's unfavorability among a growing sector of people in this country, individual members of Congress remain popular among their constituents.
If the Republicans can rally their base for the individual candidates outside of Trump, they could probably still win, except for the case where they're redistricting everything and they're going to win by procedure anyway.
So that's the important point here.
Let me show you what we got in the polls.
Current Democratic Party favorability is minus 20.
And Republicans are minus 15.4.
So let's just be real.
Everybody hates them both.
But Republicans are hated just a little bit less.
And they're enjoying tremendous voter registration.
That being said, we have other polls showing that the current independent self ID shows that individuals that are not affiliated as members of the party identify less with the Republican Party than ever before in recent history.
Maybe like the last 30 years or some ridiculous number.
Let's take a look at what's currently going on in Virginia.
Here we go.
I love this one.
USA Today says Democrats lost the plot.
Now they're losing voters.
Progressive states like New York and California keep losing residents to lower tax, high freedom states like Texas and Florida.
Yeah, Mitch, so as you mentioned, both sides of this redistricting battle have drawn criticism from the other for misleading ads in different parts of the state.
Yesterday, the Virginia NAACP called out the Democracy and Justice Pack for the latest round of flyers it sent out targeting black voters.
The NAACP says those flyers are misleading.
unidentified
It tells you that they're desperate.
They're desperate to try to confuse individuals, all the deceitful lies.
And propaganda that they're publishing, I know President Obama cannot be pleased about this.
Over the past week, these flyers showing former President Barack Obama have been mailed out using anti gerrymandering quotes from him and urging voters to vote no on the redistrict.
Using anti gerrymandering quotes from him and urging voters to vote no on the redistrict.
The NAACP says these mailers are meant to confuse and disenfranchise black voters.
It says the quotes are used out of context.
Obama has been a vocal supporter of the redistricting referendum.
Justice and Democracy PAC Chair AC Cordoza defends the ads.
He says the quotes are not out of context and show that Obama and Governor Abigail Spanberger supporting the redistricting amendment goes against their values.
unidentified
Yep.
Their values are to oppose this amendment.
But what they want right now, what's going to advantage them, is for.
People to vote yes.
So we're encouraging people to stand with their values.
Cordoza's PAC previously came under fire for these flyers comparing the redistricting push to Jim Crow voter suppression.
In Page County, the Democratic Committee came under fire for a similar tactic using this billboard and quote from President Trump to encourage voters to vote yes in the heavily Republican area.
Cordoza says the redistricting will dilute.
Black voices by breaking up two majority minority districts.
The president of Roanoke's NAACP chapter, Dr. Brenda Hale, says redistricting would make the upcoming elections more fair by countering similar moves made in Texas and other red states.
So she's not talking about what's fair for the residents of Virginia.
She's talking about a collective power grab nationally.
So if you live in Virginia and you believe that you should have a right to speak your mind and have a representative for you, they're saying, no, that's not a fair election.
We want to take that away from you so that we can balance power nationally.
Here's Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, you know.
Look at these districts 8, 11, 10.
Well, how about I show you the proposed map?
And I'll show you why I call this one egregious and evil.
This is the new proposed congressional map for Virginia.
And as you can see, it is very different.
When you zoom into Alexandria, what do you find?
You find that there are five congressional districts in one city.
Now, how is that possible?
Take a look at this beauty of a gerrymander.
District 8 should stop here, but they create this little strip of land that goes way up into Alexandria.
Why?
So they can jam in a hyper left political faction into this district.
Then you can take a look at District 1.
Same thing.
Look at these strips 1, 2, 3, 4, and lovely District 10, just on the outskirts of Arlington, but capturing that already left.
Look at that.
There's Winchester.
For those that don't know, we are actually up here near Charlestown.
So we're right across the street from District 11.
And look what they do.
In order to eliminate Republican voices, they connect District 7 stretching all the way down here, all the way down here into Alexandria.
So, why is it that they are going to have five congressional districts in the Alexandria Metro, basically Washington, D.C.?
That is five districts to represent just one city.
Because it's evil.
Because they're cheating.
Because that is the way you win these days.
So, right now, currently, you have five strong Democrats, two lean Democrats, one toss up, two Republicans, and one strong Republican.
With the new maps, it's going to be five strong Dem, five lean Dem, and one Republican district.
They can't get rid of that last one.
Nothing you can do about that.
But it's effectively a plan to eliminate the Republican voice from Virginia.
Now, again, I'll stress this they make arguments about other states, and here we go into an ideological battle.
Indeed.
I'm going to say this whether you're for the Republicans or against the Republicans or for Democrats or against them, we're not debating policy anymore.
Now it's just they're calling it unfair that other states are deciding how to run their states.
At the national level, the Democrat and the Republican Party are no longer interested in negotiations or popularity.
Now it's a question of can we extract as much power as possible?
And where that leads us to?
I don't know, Civil War.
I said it.
This is from the New York Post.
GOP started the gerrymander fight, but in Virginia may not have the guts to finish it.
They say this year's midterm election aren't just about who wins this November, they're about who wins the fight over gerrymandering.
Nowhere is the battle fiercer than in Virginia, a state where just voters six years ago approved a constitutional amendment to take partisanship out of redistricting.
Now Democrats want to make an exception to that rule that Virginia voters approve by a nearly two thirds majority in 2020.
You see, here's the thing.
We had Youngkin.
Virginia had some Republican for a minute, and it largely had to do with the trans bathroom stuff.
Loudoun County was huge.
Well, now you got strong Democrats sweeping across the board in Virginia, running roughshod over the state and the people who live there.
Let me show you an example of why I have utter disdain for Democrats and why I think that Democrats are cheating.
And although I think I see no problem with throwing shade toward the Republicans, fair point.
Take a look at this map.
This is Illinois.
Let's see if we can get this a little bit bigger.
There we go.
Here's Illinois.
And let's shrink this image a little bit.
Notice this right here Congressional District 13.
Yes, my friends, District 13.
It makes no sense.
It is a thin strip that combines Champaign, Springfield, and what does that say?
Holton?
East St. Louis.
We don't really care about the other ones.
Now, why do this?
Well, take a look at District 15.
They sliced right through the middle of it to capture the Democrats and give them their own district.
This is a fake district.
It is clearly made to manipulate, and it's wrong.
You can take a look at how Chicago operates, and I'd argue very similarly.
And this is where we currently are with the midterms.
We got this from Fox News.
Republicans win, but Democrats also claim victory with ballot box surge in Trump territory.
Fuller said Trump was a key factor in us winning the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene in January.
The good news is for Republicans, Republican won.
But Democrats are pointing out that they never expected to win this seat because Trump had won by 37 points, but they did make gains.
They say Harris, a cattle farmer, spent four decades in the military, lost to Fuller by 12 points.
That is a significant improvement from the 29 point defeat he suffered a green in 2024.
Democrats cited the result in the 14th district as the party's latest ballot box overperformance.
Indeed, indeed, maybe Democrats are just going to win.
Donald Trump has got a lot of people pissed off.
Candace Owens called him the Mad King.
I mean, when you've got prominent people who used to be in Trump's camp now calling for his removal, it's going to be tough for Trump to muster up any kind of support to win this one, huh?
Politico says a wow moment.
Democrats' election hot streak goes scorching.
Two races in battleground states on Tuesday saw the party make massive gains compared to 2024.
Democrats just had one of their best election nights since Trump returned to the White House.
Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump's margin of victory by two thirds.
The results in the battleground states, home to, yeah, we get it.
It's a wow moment in Wisconsin politics.
Republicans ought to be sitting down tonight and going, okay, we just screwed up another race.
What are we going to do in November?
Chris Taylor, a liberal Wisconsin judge, led by 20 points with 90% of votes counted, nearly double the already large margin another liberal candidate won in 2025.
In Georgia, Democrat Sean Harris lost to Republican Clay Fuller, but the margin was only 12 points with nearly all votes counted, roughly one third the 37 point margin Trump won by in 2024.
Well, Tuesday's results are not a perfect parallel to November.
The consistent Democratic overperformances in races large and small since Trump returned suggest the base is motivated to turn out for all manner of contests.
Well, the polling I've seen, if they hold true from the special elections, some are suggesting Democrats will take a supermajority.
Because the issue is that it's not just, my friends, about whether or not they're going to swing the elections, it is also about the redistricting combined.
With sentiment, let's take a look at 270 to win's house interactive map and let's uh just make sure it is reset here.
Where's that stupid reset button?
Uh, I can't even, is this where is I don't even know where the reset button is, whatever.
I think we're looking at the uh actual map congressional.
Oh, okay, I haven't changed this one.
I was thinking the senate map.
My bad, my bad.
If you take a look at this, you can see the democrats are on track to win 212 to republicans 205, but 18 seats are still considered toss ups, meaning.
Theoretically, we can get 223 Republican seats.
I think it's very unlikely.
But I will stress this.
This is factoring in the polls we have right now.
So when they are saying Democrats are ahead, yes, in the current polls, still, there are 18 toss ups.
Republicans can make this work.
Let's zoom in to our good friends over in Virginia over here.
And you can see they're still basing this off of the old congressional map.
So, what'll happen if it changes?
Well, we'll take a look.
If we were to change Virginia right now based on polling, we got, let's turn that one blue and we'll turn that one blue, and that's what it's going to look like.
Oh, wow, that one track, that's going to be blue.
And so that changes the game to 215 guaranteed for Democrats.
Indeed, my friends.
That's the nature of the game.
That's how they're going to take it.
I wonder if the people of Virginia will actually vote for this.
It'll be interesting.
Vote for a redistricting that removes their congressional seats.
I have to imagine the districts that are Republican aren't going to be too happy about that.
But my friends, it's where we are.
Now, the Republicans have a backup plan, and it is cold, hard cash.
They're banking on Trump's wall of cash to stop Democrats in the midterms.
Well, money talks and BS walks, so they're going to have to dump a lot of money in this one.
The question is how much will they spend?
Will the Republicans simply say it's not worth it?
We're going to lose anyway, so let's save the money for later?
That's a strategy they might employ.
They'll say it's going to be a rough two years, but let's save the money we have for 2028 so we can maintain the presidency, the Senate, and the House.
If we dump too much money now and we're going to lose anyway, it's not going to be all that good now, is it?
The only problem with that strategy is if Democrats get a strong enough majority and they just destroy Trump's agenda, then going into 2028, the people are going to be like, I don't know why things are bad.
I don't know why gas is expensive.
I'm voting for the Democrats because Trump's the president.
And then Trump goes to prison, and so does everybody else.
And the point is this Democrats will obstruct and cause chaos.
This will make people's lives worse.
Then they will, the people who don't know politics will just simply say, I don't know what's going on other than Trump's the president, so I'm voting for the other guy.
And there is the big risk.
But I'm curious, really.
I mean, we know Democrats still have the edge, we can see it right here, but I'm curious.
Who are they going to bring in for 2028 after the midterms?
You got Gavin Newsom, you got Shapiro, you got Buttigieg.
Maybe.
Maybe, huh?
You know, maybe, I don't know.
Okay.
Newsom, perhaps.
Well, you know, I've talked about the rumors that maybe it'll be Tulsi Gabbard and Joe Kent, or maybe they'll go independent, but I'm going to throw a scandalous name into the mix for fun.
Tucker Carlson.
And immediately you're going, what?
That's the stupid.
It's not running into the Democrat.
Are you kidding me?
Tucker Carlson's not going to run.
What is this?
From the national interest?
Tucker Carlson was a Democrat for years?
Was a bow tie wearing Democrat before he backed Trumpism?
What is all this, huh?
He has liberal views.
Yes, a Democrat.
He changed his views.
No, no, no.
This is one dumb article just trying to smear it up.
From The Nation, the leftist publication, Tucker Carlson's conversion story, with the original headline, What Happened to Tucker Carlson?
What?
What is this from The Nation?
A biography of Tucker Carlson talking about how he's changed?
What's going on here?
Why did the left write this background on Tucker Carlson?
And don't get me wrong, it's not like a puff piece or anything.
But when you start getting publications saying Tucker was a Democrat, he's had a conversion, he's changing, I call this priming.
I'm not saying they'll actually bring Tucker.
I think it's a long shot.
I think it's more scandalous than anything to suggest.
But I do find it interesting that this narrative has emerged where there is a reformation happening among liberals where they're listening to Tucker Carlson.
It's critical of Israel, anti war, and been criticizing Donald Trump.
And liberals have been listening.
Same is true for Candace Owens.
Suburban women.
Interesting.
So what happens if it is Tucker?
It is Tucker who comes out in the next couple of years and says, the only way to stop Trump is with a strong Democratic Party.
And he says, listen, we agree on these issues.
And he highlights anti war, criticism of Israel, criticizing Trump.
And he says, we don't have to agree on everything else, but we have to unite to stop Donald Trump and Trumpism.
That might work.
Seriously.
Tucker Carlson comes and says, I know we've not gotten along on so many things, but we.
The principal issue for Democrats is Orange Man bad.
Tucker comes out and says, We may not agree, but I promise you I will stop Donald Trump, and I have conservatives who will back me, and you can back me, and America together will defeat fascism.
Might actually work.
To stop Trump, because you got his base, you got Candace's base.
I'll just say this.
Well, I don't really think that's going to happen.
I just find it interesting considering the major shift in tone from prominent conservative personalities who have abandoned Trump.
Tucker, and now a leftist publication talking about his conversion.