The Culture War - Tim Pool - Democrats LOSE, California IS FLIPPING REPUBLICAN
Aired: 2026-03-05
Duration: 21:40


=== Top Two Contenders (12:25) ===

[00:00:00]  No, it's not an exaggeration.
[00:00:02]  And no, it's not clickbait.
[00:00:04]  California is on the verge of flipping to Republican governorship due to the structure of their elections.
[00:00:12]  Simple version is, everybody, regardless of party, is running against each other.
[00:00:18]  And the top two contenders advance to a general election.
[00:00:22]  This means, as of right now, the top two contenders being both Republicans, the general election for the governorship of California may be between Republican A and Republican B, and the people in California can only choose Republican.
[00:00:38]  You know, I really love their popular vote dictates method.
[00:00:43]  See, I believe in an electoral college system.
[00:00:45]  I think, obviously, it makes no sense that if 70% of the state wants a Democrat, that you'd get a Republican with 15%.
[00:00:53]  I'm not kidding.
[00:00:54]  But these are the rules these people would live by.
[00:00:57]  And so I say, by all means, you may have what you have asked for.
[00:01:01]  So for the longest time, California, as well as many other states, have talked about this national popular vote coalition, that the president should be chosen by the popular vote and not by an electoral college system.
[00:01:12]  Basically, the system set up by the founding fathers was attempting to weigh the interests of sovereign states against each other, trying to find some kind of balance.
[00:01:22]  Not an easy thing to do.
[00:01:23]  Recognizing that a popular vote could result in large cities overpowering smaller states and effectively oppressing them.
[00:01:31]  So they said, then let's set the electoral college vote up by how many senators and congressional representatives you have, so it's a mixed bag.
[00:01:42]  Basically, you get a member of Congress based on, you know, breaking up over a certain number of people.
[00:01:48]  It used to be like 35,000.
[00:01:49]  Now it's 775,000.
[00:01:52]  But you will always get two senators, no matter what.
[00:01:55]  This meant that Rhode Island, which is the size of my thumbnail, is going to get one member of Congress and two senators.
[00:02:03]  So effectively, everybody's going to get at least two votes.
[00:02:06]  However, because we are somewhat still dealing with a population that's deciding on the president, we'll also add in the member of Congress.
[00:02:14]  They will then, you'll get an elector for each of these individuals, and they will then cast their vote for president.
[00:02:19]  It creates some kind of balance.
[00:02:21]  Well, California liberals and many others in these blue states say, let's do away with all that and vote purely based on popular vote.
[00:02:28]  And what that gets you is, okay, whoever gets the most votes wins.
[00:02:33]  And as of right now, according to the polling, it's two Republicans.
[00:02:37]  So indeed, my friends, CalMatters says California Democrats could sabotage their party's race for governor.
[00:02:46]  And the scary thing is, well, I don't know if it's scary in this regard, but in general, they say that California is five to 10 years ahead of the rest of the country.
[00:02:54]  And Gavin Newsom is the frontrunner for 2028, who is the current governor.
[00:02:58]  Expect all of the worst things imaginable as California, which is, it's got a lot of problems.
[00:03:05]  I'm going to go through a list of all their problems from homelessness, affordability, indeed, bubonic plague.
[00:03:12]  Okay, that's not fair.
[00:03:13]  They have some bubonic plague, but it's not like it's a pandemic or anything like that.
[00:03:19]  They just have some.
[00:03:21]  Maybe that's fine.
[00:03:22]  I don't know.
[00:03:23]  But let's go over this.
[00:03:24]  Let's break this all down.
[00:03:25]  Before we do, my friends, smash the like button, share the show with everyone you know.
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[00:03:42]  Here's a story from Cal Matters: how California Democrat candidates could sabotage their party's race for governor.
[00:03:48]  Let's start with this real quick.
[00:03:50]  And I'll show you this from interactive polls.
[00:03:52]  The governor, top two will advance.
[00:03:56]  And so you can see that Chad Bianco at 15% versus Steve Hilton at 15% are the two frontrunners.
[00:04:01]  Followed by Swalwell at 14, Porter at 13, Steyer at 10.
[00:04:06]  Villara Gosa at 7.
[00:04:08]  Becerra 5, Ye 2, and Thurmond 1.
[00:04:12]  Now, here's the real simple thing.
[00:04:14]  If half the Democrats dropped out, then you'd get two Democrats.
[00:04:17]  So I think that that is a strong possibility.
[00:04:20]  It just depends on how different do these people view themselves.
[00:04:26]  And because the Democratic Party has progressives and moderates and corporate, elite, neolib, whatever, it may actually be that these candidates are so at odds with each other, they refuse to back down.
[00:04:38]  And that would be fantastic if California got a Republican leader.
[00:04:41]  Cal Matters says, the glut of Democrats vying for governor in California's primary could win the race for the Republicans if some don't drop out.
[00:04:51]  Under California's top two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advanced the general election in November, regardless of party.
[00:04:58]  With so many Democrats potentially splitting the vote and only two Republican frontrunners essentially tied in the polls, splitting the GOP vote, the chances for the Democrats being shut out are real.
[00:05:06]  So let me just stress this right now to everybody.
[00:05:09]  If you're a Republican in California, you must do everything you can to go out and vote.
[00:05:17]  Because right now, if nothing changes, it is going to be Republican versus Republican for the governorship.
[00:05:24]  And this kind of thing does happen.
[00:05:26]  You know, it does.
[00:05:27]  If some Democrats drop out and it boosts Swalwell, it could be Democrat versus Republican.
[00:05:33]  Well, if everybody on the right went out and voted, you can make sure that doesn't happen.
[00:05:38]  They go on to say, under California's two-party system, blah, blah, blah, but we get it.
[00:05:41]  With so many Democrats potentially splitting the vote, they could be shut out.
[00:05:45]  At least one Democrat is bowing out.
[00:05:48]  Former state assembly majority leader Ian Calderon withdrew from the race Thursday and endorsed Swalwell.
[00:05:55]  Okay, we have to do it.
[00:05:57]  I'm sorry.
[00:06:01]  Is this it right here?
[00:06:02]  Do I have it?
[00:06:04]  I think I have it pre-saved.
[00:06:06]  No, It is pre-saved.
[00:06:10]  It is pre-saved.
[00:06:12]  And I have the video.
[00:06:14]  And I hate to do this to you, but this is from 2019.
[00:06:17]  And Swalwell's the frontrunner.
[00:06:19]  The evidence is uncontradicted that the president used taxpayer dollars to ask the Ukrainians to help him cheat an election.
[00:06:26]  And the complaint that I've heard from the evidence is uncontradicted that the president used taxpayer dollars to ask the Ukrainians to help him cheat an election.
[00:06:34]  And the complaint that I've heard.
[00:06:35]  OK, he farted on TV.
[00:06:37]  And they claimed he didn't, but you can see him tense up and pause and fart on TV.
[00:06:43]  And this guy is the frontrunner for the Democrats in California to be governor.
[00:06:47]  Help him cheapen an election.
[00:06:49]  Help him cheapen an election.
[00:06:51]  Come on.
[00:06:52]  MSNBC claimed they were sliding a mug across the table and it made that noise.
[00:06:57]  Bro, spare me.
[00:06:59]  He farted.
[00:07:00]  He's in.
[00:07:02]  You know what it is?
[00:07:02]  Is people don't understand that the Capitol, like the Rotunda, like that, that room, it's echoey.
[00:07:09]  It is crazy.
[00:07:09]  So he farts.
[00:07:11]  Everybody heard it.
[00:07:13]  So he's winning.
[00:07:14]  And he might actually make it because he's getting these endorsements.
[00:07:20]  Ultimately, every candidate has to make a clear right assessment about whether they can assemble the resources necessary to run a competitive statewide campaign, Calderone said.
[00:07:28]  In a race of the scale, a message only matters if you have the resources to ensure Californians can actually see and hear it.
[00:07:32]  Now, I do think, to be completely honest, you'll get some people dropping out when they realize they're not going to win.
[00:07:37]  We'll see, though.
[00:07:38]  They do say the remaining eight candidates seem unfazed.
[00:07:42]  Former Orange County rep Katie Porter pointed to her position in the polls, tied with two other Democrats and two Republicans.
[00:07:48]  Former state controller Betty Yee was buoyed by support from party delegates at a convention last month.
[00:07:54]  Superintendent Thurmond, polling at 2%, cast his campaign as bucking political elites and said by favoring those with higher polling numbers, party leaders were essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out.
[00:08:06]  Meanwhile, LA Mayor Villaragosa, is that how you pronounce it?
[00:08:10]  Villaragosa, singled out former state attorney Becera, a fellow Latina, to drop out under the rationale that doing so would reduce the chances of two Republicans advancing.
[00:08:19]  Becera responded on social media that Villaragosa had never won statewide office before, but I have, and I'll do it again.
[00:08:26]  Let's go.
[00:08:27]  You know what we need to do?
[00:08:28]  Do you guys ever see the Simpsons episode where the teachers are going to go on strike?
[00:08:31]  And then Bart goes to the teacher and he says, I heard Skinner saying the teachers are going to cave.
[00:08:37]  And then they go, huh?
[00:08:38]  And then they start whispering to each other.
[00:08:40]  And then Krabopol is like, Skinner's saying we're going to cave Purple Monkey Dishwasher.
[00:08:46]  That is an absurd statement, especially the Purple Monkey Dishwasher thing.
[00:08:50]  The point is, what we need right now is for someone to just whisper to Villaragosa.
[00:08:56]  I heard Becera said, you suck.
[00:08:58]  I'm kidding, by the way.
[00:08:59]  Calm down.
[00:09:00]  The point is, so long as they keep fighting with each other and refusing to drop out, you're going to get Republicans winning in California.
[00:09:07]  Whatever their justification, seven Democrats have already met Friday's deadline to file the paperwork that officially puts their names on the primary election ballot.
[00:09:14]  Billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer had yet to file Thursday, but indicated he would remain in the race, making for an eight-candidate Democratic field and raising the possibility of an all-Republican gubernatorial election this fall.
[00:09:25]  Are you kidding me?
[00:09:27]  They say.
[00:09:28]  Concern has been percolating for months, prompting Democratic data guru Paul Mitchell to set up a website with the latest polling data.
[00:09:35]  Let's see what he's got going on.
[00:09:37]  To run statistical models predicting the chances of an all-Republican general election.
[00:09:40]  It swung anywhere between 10 and 18% in recent weeks.
[00:09:43]  On Tuesday, long chat Republican contender John Slavitt withdrew from the race, further consolidating support among the two GOP frontrunners.
[00:09:50]  Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton.
[00:09:54]  The chances of Bianco and Hilton advancing shot up on his model to 28%.
[00:10:00]  Let's see.
[00:10:02]  California top two twins.
[00:10:06]  So how does this work?
[00:10:07]  Preloaded polls as of March.
[00:10:10]  It's the website said.
[00:10:11]  Select polls, adjust settings, and then hit the button to find out who's on top.
[00:10:15]  Which button?
[00:10:15]  Oh, there you go.
[00:10:16]  All right, let's get it.
[00:10:18]  So right now, wow, look at it.
[00:10:20]  Run these.
[00:10:21]  It's running that math like crazy.
[00:10:23]  Chad Bianco, and this is insane.
[00:10:26]  This is wow.
[00:10:28]  5,000 polls.
[00:10:31]  Is that what it is?
[00:10:32]  5,000?
[00:10:33]  Chad Bianco, greater than 60% to Steve Hilton, 60%.
[00:10:37]  Swalwell sitting at just 43%.
[00:10:41]  Holy crap.
[00:10:43]  Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer have a decent probability of making the top two, but the two favorites still right now are Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, which could mean California goes Republican.
[00:10:54]  Hey, they got what?
[00:10:56]  Like 10 million Republicans in the state?
[00:10:58]  If every single one came out and voted, they'd get it.
[00:11:02]  We will see, however, my friends, because all it takes is a couple to drop out.
[00:11:07]  So we shall see.
[00:11:09]  And let's take a look at who's currently running, says the New York Times, and we'll see what we've actually got.
[00:11:15]  Xavier Becerra, he was Joe Biden's Secretary of Health and Human Services.
[00:11:20]  So we got a lefty.
[00:11:22]  Chad Bianco, a law enforcement officer, was elected sheriff of Riverside County, a fast-growing rural area.
[00:11:27]  And you know what?
[00:11:27]  I'm going to say this.
[00:11:28]  It is great that both Chad and Steve are running.
[00:11:31]  If Chad were to drop out, of course, Steve Hilton would be guaranteed to advance.
[00:11:35]  If Steve were to drop out, Chad would advance.
[00:11:37]  But you would then have Democrat v. Republican.
[00:11:39]  Democrat would win handily.
[00:11:41]  With these two taking the top spots, it could guarantee their victory.
[00:11:47]  Steve Hilton, of course, you've seen him probably on Timcast IRL, if not on Fox News.
[00:11:51]  He worked in conservative politics in Britain and moved to Silicon Valley for his wife's job at Google in 2012.
[00:11:56]  His campaign for governor has received support from Rupert Murdoch, the conservative media magnate.
[00:12:00]  You got Matt Mahan, mayor of San Jose, Katie Porter, a professor, former congresswoman.
[00:12:06]  Tom Steyer, you know these people.
[00:12:08]  Eric Swelwell, we all saw him fart on TV.
[00:12:10]  Tony Thurman, Antonio Villaragosa, Butch Ware for the Green Party, which I doubt he's going to drop out.
[00:12:18]  Betty Yee, and that seems to be the case as of right now.
[00:12:22]  So we'll see, my friends.
[00:12:24]  We will see.

=== Policy Trends Affecting California (02:32) ===

[00:12:25]  In the meantime, why should you be concerned about California?
[00:12:29]  Well, my friends, according to Google's AI, the notion that California is ahead of the rest of the U.S., often cited as 10 to 15 years ahead rather than just five, is a common perspective in politics, technology, and policy, though it's accompanied by significant debate regarding its sustainability.
[00:12:45]  Now, several years ago, I had heard that it was about five years.
[00:12:48]  Well, they're arguing 10 to 15.
[00:12:50]  We don't want to be like California.
[00:12:52]  California sucks.
[00:12:53]  No, no, don't get me wrong.
[00:12:54]  The weather is beautiful.
[00:12:55]  It's got mountains and everything.
[00:12:56]  I'm talking about policy-wise.
[00:12:58]  It sucks.
[00:13:00]  And if it's true that the rest of this country is going to follow in those footsteps, then I would very much like to see California get some Republican governorship, which changes the script.
[00:13:09]  And then maybe the future of the rest of this country may follow suit as well.
[00:13:13]  Not that the point isn't that California does something, and then we just have to do it.
[00:13:20]  It's that California's politics and worldview are culturally impactful.
[00:13:27]  So even if by a fluke you get a Republican governor, it doesn't mean the rest of the U.S. will change, especially when Newsom himself is the frontrunner for the Democratic Party.
[00:13:35]  Trump will be out.
[00:13:36]  And the question remains, will JD Vance have the X factor needed to defeat a Newsom if it comes down to Newsom v. JD Vance?
[00:13:44]  Well, right now, my friends, we got concerns over gas prices exploding in California due to their climate regulations.
[00:13:51]  We know that California's got bad law enforcement policy, bad immigration policy, bad gas policy.
[00:13:59]  I don't know that a governor is going to change all of that, even if he's a Republican.
[00:14:03]  My point is just we should hope for the future of California because the trend seems to affect us all the same.
[00:14:11]  And I know the point I just made earlier that whether they get a fluke governor or not doesn't change much.
[00:14:17]  However, you could also argue these things are still a component of the cultural shifts and trends.
[00:14:22]  And if enough people came out to vote for a Republican, maybe you will actually get not a popular vote victory like Trump just had, but a minority vote victory with an Electoral College victory for 2028, giving it to JD Vance, or maybe even a Rubio.
[00:14:38]  You know, I got to say this as an aside, Rubio's really been impressing me over the past several months.
[00:14:44]  And it's not so much about his policy positions, for which I'm like middle of the road on.
[00:14:50]  I'm not big on the foreign war stuff, okay?
[00:14:52]  But I'm also not like shrieking and pulling out my hair from the sides.

=== You Say You Could Sell Ice? (05:07) ===

[00:14:57]  No, but he's been rather calm and reasoned, and it's made it very difficult for them to go after.
[00:15:03]  The Democrats like to attack JD Vance, Trump, or otherwise, based on cultural issues they bring up.
[00:15:08]  And Rubio's been rather professional and refrained from this, which has given him a unique position, and I think he's aware of it.
[00:15:16]  So we may actually see him and be surprised.
[00:15:18]  However, back to California.
[00:15:21]  Chevron warns Newsom's adversarial energy agenda will cripple California economy and send grass prices, gas prices soaring.
[00:15:30]  My friends, you must, you must resist Democrats who are just burning everything down.
[00:15:37]  You know what I see?
[00:15:39]  I see a Democratic Party that tends towards give the baby their candy and a Republican party that tends towards tell the kid to do his chores.
[00:15:47]  And here's the truth.
[00:15:48]  Everybody knows when you're a little kid and you say, I want ice cream.
[00:15:52]  You know, you got good cop, bad cop parents.
[00:15:55]  You know, maybe it's mom or dad.
[00:15:56]  Either way, one of them says, you can't have ice cream until you finish your broccoli.
[00:15:59]  And they go, oh, but I want ice cream now.
[00:16:01]  And the other parent goes, I'm going to sneak you some ice cream.
[00:16:04]  Well, guess which one the kid likes?
[00:16:06]  The kid likes the pair that sneaks in the ice cream.
[00:16:09]  But is that good for the kid?
[00:16:10]  Nope.
[00:16:11]  That kid's going to grow up being a spoiled entitled brat and have a hard time surviving on their own.
[00:16:16]  And that's what I see with Democrats and Republicans.
[00:16:18]  The Democratic Party says, I'll say whatever you want to give you whatever you want so that you vote for me.
[00:16:23]  And the Republicans are like, sometimes we have to do hard things and it's going to suck, but it'll get better.
[00:16:27]  Well, I tell you this.
[00:16:29]  If the Republicans say, we're not going to make the economy perfect because everyone's got to buckle down and do hard work, but five years from now, you will not regret it.
[00:16:37]  They're going to go, oh, just give it to me now.
[00:16:39]  And the Democrats are like, I'll just tax someone else and take their money from them.
[00:16:42]  Who do you want to blame?
[00:16:44]  Therein lies the problem.
[00:16:46]  The problem of Democratic leadership.
[00:16:49]  Chevron, I'm sure in response to this, a bunch of liberals are saying, yeah, but they're a big, evil corporation.
[00:16:55]  There's this great scene in Landman where John Hamm's character, who, as most of you know in season two, he is dead, they're talking about protests and activists against energy companies.
[00:17:08]  He's like, we're drillers.
[00:17:08]  We're not oil companies.
[00:17:10]  It's like we have one customer.
[00:17:11]  We drill for oil companies.
[00:17:13]  So we're not going to play politics.
[00:17:15]  And then he makes a great point about all of these people protesting for climate don't even realize the clothing they're wearing is made of oil.
[00:17:24]  They have no idea what's actually going on.
[00:17:27]  And this is what Democrats do.
[00:17:29]  They latch onto a cause and tell you it's for your own good and you have no idea why it's not.
[00:17:34]  Now don't get me wrong, Republicans are not perfect.
[00:17:36]  Industrialists, corporatists will absolutely skirt environmental regulations, poisoning us to turn a profit.
[00:17:42]  But that's not been so much the issue these days.
[00:17:45]  Since the MA movement, the populist movement came in, the MAGA people have been kind of a hybrid, anti-establishment with former disaffected liberals and conservatives, though largely conservative.
[00:17:56]  In the future, my friends, I think the problem that we face would be if we get these policies from someone like Gavin Newsom moving into our national level politics.
[00:18:05]  And Emerson College poll shows that Gavin Newsom is leading the 2028 Democratic field.
[00:18:11]  Oh boy.
[00:18:13]  I can't say that I'm excited for what happens when someone like Gavin Newsom, who, mind you, told everybody you have to wear masks, but then walked around not wearing a mask, went to restaurants, did whatever he wanted.
[00:18:22]  Do you want that kind of leadership?
[00:18:24]  I view the Democratic Party as the party of, quote, you are too stupid to decide for yourself, so we'll do it for you and we'll deceive you.
[00:18:31]  And the Republican Party is a bunch of stodgy suit-wearing guys who couldn't sell, you know, they couldn't sell a NASCAR ticket to a NASCAR fan.
[00:18:44]  You know, you say you could sell ice to an Eskimo or sand to a Saudi.
[00:18:48]  I like the second one better.
[00:18:50]  The saying is when you're really good at sales, you go, I could sell ice to an Eskimo.
[00:18:54]  Pointing out that the Eskimo, the Inuit, lives surrounded by ice.
[00:18:59]  Why would he buy it from you?
[00:19:00]  Because you're a smooth talker.
[00:19:01]  Or sand to a Saudi because Saudi Arabia is sand.
[00:19:04]  Like they don't need to buy it from you.
[00:19:05]  You know, I like that one, though, because, you know, Saudi Arabia is a specific place.
[00:19:09]  Anyway, what's the opposite of that?
[00:19:11]  Republicans couldn't sell ice cream to a kid who wants ice cream.
[00:19:15]  I don't know.
[00:19:16]  You come up with one that's alliterative and fun.
[00:19:18]  Ice to an Eskimo, sand to a Saudi.
[00:19:20]  The point is, the Republicans know that the majority of people in this country want voter ID, and Democrats want it.
[00:19:27]  Independents want it.
[00:19:28]  Republicans want it.
[00:19:30]  The only people who don't are Democrat politicians.
[00:19:32]  And the Republicans still will not pass the SAFE Act.
[00:19:34]  They could not sell, here we go, water to a man dying of thirst in the desert.
[00:19:40]  They couldn't do it.
[00:19:42]  In fact, I got to be honest, the guy dying in the desert of dehydration is going to be going, please, I'll give you anything.
[00:19:47]  Like, there's literally a billionaire whose plane has crashed, and he's crawling through the sand, desperate and dying, with money bursting from his pockets, covered in gold chains, and there's a Republican holding a glass of water and he goes, you can have anything, anything.

=== Republicans Fail Deals (01:35) ===

[00:20:05]  You can have my money, my clothes, my empire.
[00:20:08]  And the Republican's like, I don't know.
[00:20:13]  And that's the point.
[00:20:15]  I can make the joke about how Republicans couldn't sell ice to water to a dehydrated dying man in the desert, but it's actually worse than that in that they won't do it.
[00:20:23]  That the man's literally begging them to do it and they won't do it.
[00:20:26]  So here's what I see.
[00:20:28]  The Democrat walks up and it's Gavin Newsom and he cuts a deal with the Republican on some stupid thing like some transgender kids will get sex changes in exchange for a 3% reduction in taxes between, you know, for interstate commerce or something.
[00:20:45]  And the Republican goes, ha ha, we won.
[00:20:47]  Then the Democrat goes to the billionaire and says, give me everything you have and more, and here's the water.
[00:20:53]  And then makes the sale, cuts the deal with the billionaire, gets the money, takes the power.
[00:20:58]  See, this is what I can't stand about Republicans.
[00:21:01]  But maybe they're supposed to be the Washington Generals, the Democrats, Harlem, Globetrotters, right?
[00:21:05]  My friends, California could go Republican.
[00:21:10]  And I know I'm ragging on the Republicans, but it would be beneficial at least to get some political competition.
[00:21:16]  And that being said, you know, I think Steve Hilton will do a pretty decent job.
[00:21:19]  But the challenge then becomes for these individuals, how do you maintain control in a state that wants to give children sex changes and wants illegal immigrants?
[00:21:30]  I don't know, man.
[00:21:31]  All I can say is good luck.
[00:21:32]  We're going to episode a little bit short today, but, you know, it is what it is.
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[00:21:39]  Stay tuned.