SNAPOCALYPSE Could Spark Insurrection Act, Civil WAR, Leftists Say RIOTS COMING ft. Rudyard Lynch
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People's sort of mental frame is really short and they only think in terms of a month.
I think this is true even for the White House, where I don't think the U.S. government, right or left, makes decisions longer than they're constantly thinking about the several month headline.
And so when we're going to pull back, we're going to see this was all part of a singular trajectory that we just ignored.
Well, as most of you already know, the snap apocalypse is coming.
November 1st, 42 million people will lose their food benefits, their food stamps.
Trending on Google, quote, is they cutting food stamps?
Is they stopping food stamps?
And people are predicting food riots, Trump invoking the Insurrection Act, or worse.
The question is, with so many unemployed young people, will there be a political crisis?
Well, I pulled up this from Gettysburg.edu, an abstract.
It is a research paper that, well, doesn't prove anything, just adds to the validity of the claim that when you have a large portion of your population as unemployed young men, revolution happens.
The abstract says, in this paper, I investigate the validity of the widely held assumption that high rates of youth unemployment will lead a state to experience internal armed conflict.
I hypothesize that as youth unemployment rates increase, a state will have a larger number of internal armed conflicts occurring occur.
A state will have a larger number of internal armed conflicts occur annually.
This can happen via three causal mechanisms.
Opportunity cost calculations, private frustrations, resentment and feelings of stagnation turned into public grievance.
And three, an emotional and psychological triggers leading to participation in violent insurgent activities.
I find that while youth unemployment does have a statistically significant influence on the number of internal armed conflicts in a given state, other variables have a far greater effect.
This research contributes to the growing body of literature arguing that the assumption above is empirically unsupported and that more weight should be placed on other causal factors that have a far greater influence on the incidence of internal armed conflicts.
The reason I highlight this is that I think it's actually fair to say it is not the principal motivator.
By simply having unemployed people doesn't mean you'll have a revolution.
However, it is a powerful ingredient.
That is to say, the individual doing the research paper still does agree you will see in states with large unemployed youth an increase in armed conflict, but not as the driving factor, nor even the greatest.
Fair.
And that's why I'm highlighting snappocalypse.
Cutting off food and food riots is a principal motivator.
And research suggests that when people can't get food, governments crumble.
So who will be ripped out of their seat of power?
Trump?
The Democrats?
Honestly, I don't know.
But you add that with the other ingredient of mass youth unemployment.
And, oh boy.
So to better understand, we will be joined by Rudyard Lynch of What If Alt Hist.
Whenever we get heightened senses of some kind of civil unrest, revolution, or otherwise, you're the man to call.
So we got two big things to talk about.
One is, you've talked about this for quite a bit, mass youth unemployment, and that as an indicator of internal armed conflict or unrest.
But the bigger picture right now is what's being called the snappocalypse.
Now, I'm not entirely convinced, I've said this before, that the Trump badminton Democrats will allow food stamps to expire November 1st, but with 42 million people set to lose access to food in three days, I'm curious.
You've been following this and what you What do you think first, the more sensational question?
So I try to reserve my points for basically being a dick, and I'll drop them here.
But it's genuinely difficult to starve in America.
And I try to be sympathetic to the struggles of the working classes today and the elite driving them down.
But I mean, lower class Americans spend 60% of their income on rent.
And America is the country in the world that spends the least on food.
And so although sort of there are people at the very bottom of the income range who might face issues due to this, we have to sort of zoom out and see this as a holistic issue where food is like one or two or 3% of the equation of the things keeping lower class Americans in poverty.
And we might see extra violence, but from what I would guess, most of the people involved in this sort of who would cause violence are either sort of political radical types where this is what they do professionally or sort of professional criminals.
And I don't think genuinely people who are trying to make ends meet are the type of people who cause political issues.
It's not the amount of people, it's the skill and the willpower and the placement.
Where when you look at previous revolutions, like the French or the Russian, it's all concentrated among sort of small, well-encapsulated, well-organized political organizations, often people of middle class or upper class origin.
And when they work, it's because they're able to get enough of the levers of power.
And when like you see genuinely lower class revolutions, they tend to get crushed, like the peasant revolutions, because they don't have the experience in wielding power or the levers of power.
So I mean, I think I'm frankly shocked that the average American has been able to pay their bills for this long.
I don't think the removal of SNAP would change the political calculus.
Yeah, that's something the communists are really good at because they realized that if we just shoot all of the stakeholders in the system, we can maintain total power because everyone who can fight back is already working with us.
But there is still, there's some concern about a general instability or food rights that might emerge from this.
So there are, let's say 42 million people receive benefits and we make the assumption that a large portion, a large portion of them are probably more moderate to right-leaning or moderately liberal.
They're not going to riot.
They'll just be upset and they'll try and figure out what they'll go to food banks.
They'll try and figure something else out.
But with 42 million, I mean, there's a strong probability that nair duels are going to start looting stores.
Speculation that they'll steal shopping carts from people in the parking lots.
And that will just create general instability, regardless of whether it's a revolution or otherwise.
I'm going to reframe this in terms of when you look at the last five years, the price of rent for a lot of Americans has doubled.
And so when you're doing a breakdown of these sorts of things, this is sort of a drop in the bucket compared to the enormous inflation and rises in costs of everything.
But when a camel's back is weighed down, a straw can break it.
And this is sort of the situation where it's not good that people aren't getting their food stamps.
But at the same time, this entire situation is very messed up.
And so you're looking at, you're zooming out and you're sort of looking at a barren field of trash and it's not pleasant.
Are you suggesting that in and of itself, taking food away from a morbidly obese nation?
I'm going to be a dick, but taking food stamps from a morbidly obese nation is not going to be the same as any other impoverished nation because Americans have easy access to food even without these benefits.
But we are on such brittle ground, it could be a straw that causes a cascade failure in other ways.
Is that fair to say?
Yeah.
So, well, then the question is, can the suspension of food stamps, irrespective of whether it's the food as the issue, lead to or be a catalyst for civil war revolution?
Or, or some have speculated Trump will use it as a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act and send out the National Guard.
This is one of those things historians look at as one of the historians sort of look at before the Industrial Revolution, the most powerful governments in the world were 3% of the economy.
And now America is moderate compared to Europe.
In France, Germany, it's a majority of the economy.
And this is one of those just huge variables you've seen change in the last 200 years, which we've sort of agreed to ignore.
So on top of this, we have this tremendous youth unemployment.
And I just read this research paper from Getty's, what is it, Gettysburg.edu, where they said, while it does seem to contribute, countries with high youth unemployment tend to experience higher internal armed conflict.
It doesn't seem to be the greatest cause or even the most significant.
Do you think that the U.S. is facing a risk from youth unemployment?
I'm surprised it's not worse, actually, because I sometimes like to think that society is a conspiracy to stop Gen Z from getting hired, where you have mass immigration, where there were certain periods in the last five years when statistically 100% of new jobs went to immigrants.
And I double-checked that.
That should be statistically impossible, but it's true.
You have automating, you have AI, offshoring, and then probably a variety of other things like the gig economy, where you have this huge demographic of young people.
And it also transcends social class.
If you look at IV leagues, their graduates are also having trouble getting hired.
And that's really dangerous because you're going to get a revolution or a civil war when elite aspirants have issues.
Because when middle and upper class people who know people in power or they have the ability to organize or, I mean, something I'll throw in here is that a difference in America and Europe is America has an appro can operate on an industrial scale in the private sector.
So we have private sector militaries, we have private sector supply chains, people worth as individuals more than entire countries.
And so a huge difference in America and Europe in this equation is that in America, the private sector has the ability to fight the government and the government in Europe, that's not the case.
It does seem like all of these factors are sort of peppered around and we're bubbling up.
The way I described it yesterday is it seems like every crisis is reaching, it's getting cranked up to 11.
As if, you know, I think it was Shane Cashman who said, it's not a season finale.
It's a series finale.
Like every possible problem is reaching its zenith.
And so like, you know, I'll put another way, Luke Rudkowski has a t-shirt where it's like a pie chart of 1984, brave new world, Fahrenheit 451.
And it's in the middle, it says, you are here.
All of those problems.
Based on what you've read about, say, like the Spanish Revolution, France, the Bolsheviks, does it seem that way in the United States that we're kind of going through everything all at once?
And I was talking to my best friend about it last week.
And we call it sort of, imagine if there's a rope and then the rope is getting twisted and extended and it's gradually getting very thin, but somehow the rope is still there.
And when the rope falls, it's all just going to go away.
And it's weird where it almost feels like time moves very slowly and very quickly, where every single day we're bombarded with headlines and then you zoom out and then nothing ever happens.
And so it's a weird situation and it's going to go to a head.
And I think we are in the historic equivalent of waiting at a doctor's office.
But you know what I think about the nothing ever happens?
It's because people base their lives off reading history books or watching movies.
So I got into an argument with Grok recently because as one does, we argue with fake entities on the internet.
No, but I did this because Will Chamberlain made the point that if Zoran Mandani wants to release all the criminals from Rikers, Trump should federalize and seize control of New York.
Wall Street Mav on X asked Grock if he could and Grok said no, which is incorrect.
So seeing this, I asked Grock, if there is an insurrection, sedition, or rebellion against the government, can the president seize control or the rights of individuals are being violated?
To which it responded, he could, but the courts are going to say Trump can't do it.
So I followed up with, except Abraham Lincoln did.
And what did Grok do?
It lied.
It said when Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, he was facing a genuine civil war.
Now, here's the point I'm making with it seems like nothing ever happens.
At the time when Abraham, and you probably know all this, but for the viewers, at the time when Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, it was, I think, a couple weeks after the Battle of Fort Sumter, and there was no civil war in the United States.
No one thought a civil war was even possible.
And the president suspended habeas corpus in his corridor from Pennsylvania through Maryland into D.C. And he even had members of the Maryland legislature arrested for being sympathetic.
This was before the first Battle of Bull Run.
But when we read the history paragraph, we read it saying, Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, amassed troops dispatched in the southern states.
The southern states seceded from the union.
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
This was over a period of months.
So every day it seemed like an increment, a grain of sand, and that we're being bombarded by these crazy things, but nothing was happening.
And then two years later, they went, hey, guys, we're in a civil war.
I just, I guess, relate that to what we see now.
And like, do you, do you think that assessment is correct, I suppose?
Like, we are history books will look back on this and condense it all.
And then people will be like, I can't believe how much happened in such a short period of time.
That's generally always what happens historically, where people tend to never predict that the war that's about to happen will.
And when they do, it's almost always sort of like people, the only people or very few of the people who predicted World War I were Teddy Roosevelt and Winston Churchill, because they had already studied the patterns for war and history and they were studying geopolitics.
But for everyone else, it was unimaginable.
And that's normally the case.
It's also people's sort of mental frame is really short and they only think in terms of a month.
I think this is true even for the White House, where I don't think the U.S. government, right or left, makes decisions longer than they're constantly thinking at the several month headline.
And so when we're going to pull back, we're going to see this was all part of a singular trajectory that we just ignored.
You know what it's, the way I look at it as you make that rope analogy, I look at it like we're actually winding the rope itself.
We're braiding the threads into a rope.
And you look at all these different paths we can go down and we are choosing which thread will be the color on the exterior, the thread that we follow.
So to your point, right now, we are going, oh man, what might happen if SNAP benefits don't get paid out?
50 years from now, they're going to say when they refused to pay out SNAP benefits, it led to food riots.
It led to Insurrection Act.
It led to governments seceding.
Who knows?
And we don't know for sure, but in the future, it'll seem particularly obvious it was going to happen.
And I think that was utterly insane, where if you have a figure like the Prophet Muhammad show up, single-handedly generate a religion that stretches across the entire known world, that's bigger than America, and you can look at that and not think of anything besides what happens there, you are lying to yourself.
So outside of the speculation we have on SNAP on unemployment, you know, a year ago we had talked with you and you had that prediction about a thousand dead by was it was it April or was it May?
April, yeah.
April.
And while you were, You were wrong, and that's fine.
I think you were right about the temperature being turned up because we saw a wave of terror attacks, the attacks on Tesla, the ICE terror attacks, of course, the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
So it wasn't as fast as you had described it.
But I mean, look, Charlie Kirk was just killed, and now we've got more threats of death and violence.
Some guy got arrested for putting a bounty on Pam Bond.
I stand largely by my earlier take that we're going to have a civil war or a revolution because if you look at historical patterns, if something happens five years late, that's still a blink of an eye historically.
And so if I, what I said afterwards is that my next take is that it's going to occur in the next four years.
And if that doesn't happen, I'll just be wrong and the nation will be in a better place.
And but what I'd say on top of that is there's there's no way to get the temperature back down because one of the really scary things, and for you as a public figure, I'm sure this weighed on you, is that the left cheered on the death of Charlie Kirk, where even their moderates or their mainstream were at the very least okay with it.
And you can't go back from knowing that.
And when the temperature has turned up that much, it needs to burn out.
I mean, I just showed a moment ago a poll from Gallup that among Democrats, only something like 30-some odd percent are proud to be Americans.
Republicans, it's 92.
Independents, 53.
So the majority is, the majority of people in America very much support America.
But the worldview of the Democrats is it's a rocket shooting as far left as possible every single day, further and further and further in the most insane ways.
And I feel like we've gotten to the point where the moral worldviews are too divergent to ever come back.
There was a clip from Joe Rogan that I talked about the other day where he said, you know, people are just choosing teams because of tribe.
This is so stupid.
We shouldn't do this.
And while that may be true in the initial break between left and right, you are not going to reconcile.
You are never going to convince me that we should allow child drag shows.
We should allow children to dance for a bunch of gay men and have dollar bills stuffed in their pants, which is what they've been doing.
And for years, you'll never convince me that abortion should be allowed to nine months.
And the left's response is, you're fascists and you will never convince me otherwise.
So you can't reduce the temperature when we can't even look at the same thing and find a path forward together.
It's so the Protestants and the Catholics killed each other for centuries.
And the Protestants and the Catholics or the English and the Irish share so much more than the right and the left, where the right and the left are just completely different civilizations at this point.
And they're not willing to compromise.
And it's really remarkable that they exist in the same country at the same time as the other.
Well, actually, I wouldn't describe the left as a civilization at all.
Because when you look at Zara Nandani as a great example, he's basically the new face of the Democratic Party, arguably more prominent and popular right now than AOC, though, you know, he wasn't born here.
We don't got to worry about him being president.
But what is he promising?
He said, I'm going to make all of the buses in New York free, and I'll make them go faster.
He may as well say, I'm going to make lollipops shoot out your butts.
It's a nonsense statement.
The buses can drive faster if they want.
The problem is traffic.
You're not doing anything about that, unless it's banning cars.
The other issue is it's a man-made speed limit.
But when you have people whose policy views are not predicated upon something that can sustain life or make sense, that's not a civilization.
That is the opposite of.
And so if the right position is a, you know, the right in this country is a combination of political moderates, some liberals, and many conservatives, and they're having a discussion over what will make life function.
And the left is just arguing for things that don't make sense.
Abortion at nine months, child sex changes, make the bus faster, give everybody free stuff, free food, free childcare.
That is nonsensical.
That is not math.
They think two plus two equals five.
Whatever they do will eventually burn out.
So if they overtake the entirety of the U.S. system or global system, civilization collapses outright.
There's no coexisting because they are just a chaotic and destructive force.
I honestly, you know, there's an article arguing saying that there could be a revolution because of the unemployed young people.
One of the outcomes may actually be a dejected, dysfunctional ideology cannot win a battle.
And what might happen is that young men who are largely reining leaning right, second time I did that, leaning right in this country, invoke some kind of revolution towards a right-wing system and just shut the left out.
So the reason I say civilization is more to do with my internal sort of mental categorization system than what that word means.
Because when I compare civilizations, I look at what is your underlying view of human nature.
What do you value as your direction for the world?
How do you organize your society?
And in those terms, the left or the Marxists are more different from normal Western conservatives than they are from Islam.
So it's a statement that they're just operating in a completely different cultural dimension.
And the more you analyze how their worldview works, the more you realize that it's just a complete departure from any sane society in human history, where 99% of societies in human history would broadly agree with things that modern conservatives say about how the world works.
And almost all of those societies would think that modern conservatives are pussies.
They think we're way too into the left.
And the thing you said about sort of not being reconcilable and the temperature getting turned up is these people are functionally communists.
And we know what communism does.
And it's killed more people than every other religion and ideology in history combined.
You look at the Crusades, you look at the Roman Empire, you look at the Vikings, and it's fascinating how American conservatives are the second most progressive, liberal, low-T society in the history, next to only the modern American left.
And I'm not trying to be a dick, but, and actually, it's a bit hyperbolic because you can look at Europe right now and see that they're all really, really bad.
But let's just call it, call it this.
In the West today, the right-leaning factions of political dominance are as far left as you can go historically, except for the left of the modern today.
So my point ultimately is, as you point out, conservatives in America are pussies relative to what every other society was capable or willing to do.
I mean, let's just be real.
They almost all had slaves.
They were willing to take people and use them as property to their own ends.
And not advocating for that, but I certainly think we are seeing a shift where a lot of young men are saying, hey, maybe we actually have to defend our values and enforce our way of life and stop just letting evil people do evil.
Yeah, it's what I tell a lot of older conservatives that if you want a victory here, you can just take it.
If you're an older conservative in a position of power worth money, if you just choose to fund young male conservatism in a reasonable and sort of competent way, that you can just win because you have this huge demographic of sort of underemployed, highly competent, dissatisfied young men that you can pull from.
And I think it's fundamentally been a disaster for the boomer cons where there's a disconnect where the boomer cons are just utterly split off from the real world and they're effectively leftist controlled opposition in many cases.
And then the Zoomer cons are just descending into madness as they care about these like petty online status games.
You know, I think about the increasing prominence of Nick Fuentes.
He's getting a lot of followers.
I've met young men who are big fans of his.
And it's because he's saying things that most people are afraid to say.
Now, I don't agree with him.
To be honest, I haven't watched, I don't watch a lot of Nick Fuentes.
So my presumption is on the issue of like Jews in Israel, I'm completely uninterested and probably disagreeing.
But he brings up interesting points of race that have gone viral recently, that young Gen Z guys, predominantly white, are watching him and saying yes.
And one example that I've brought up quite a bit is when Nick Fuentes, he went massively viral for this on Instagram, like probably 50 million views, where he said, he said he didn't want to live near black people.
And he said, you know what?
Most people don't.
They're unwilling to say it.
But everybody knows because they can look at the stats.
And my point is you get these young guys.
They watch Nick say that.
They look at the stats.
They look at the housing market and property values.
And they conclude, clearly with property values, historically, people don't want to live near black communities.
So Nick's not wrong.
Maybe he's being a dick about it, but he's pointing out you can't deny the housing market realities of property values decline historically.
I'm not saying it's a good thing, but it's a fact.
And then they realize the media's been lying to them about everything.
Then they can see Asians, Mexicans, black people, Jews, you name it, rallying around their ethnicity and race and then being told white people can't.
And they feel nihilistic.
They have no opportunities.
Jobs are going to immigrants.
And then here's a guy who's basically saying, America first, your identity matters.
These people are lying to you.
I think Nick's going to continually get more and more prominence.
I don't know that he becomes, you know, a leader of Gen Z or anything.
I'm curious if what you think, however, or if you think there's a different faction that might actually be the dominant faction among Gen Z resistant to the old system.
I'm not, I don't think the Groupers can grow to become a dominant faction because they're too nihilistic and they're not practical.
I think they're also not, they're not really conservatives.
If you look at their moral values, they're fairly similar to the left, where they're modernists, they view the world through race, they want the state to intervene because Nazism was national socialism.
I mean, there's the huge void on the right that someone can fill where because you've seen a consistent failure of the ability to take that mantle where, I mean, it's sad how many of the sort of great conservative figures of the last few years, maybe that's too grandiose a term, but I'm actually, no, I don't think it is.
But Charlie Kirk's dead.
Jordan Peterson's taking a break from content.
Chris Williamson is having various health issues.
I think Candace was out for two weeks.
And so it's disappointing where there's this huge sort of, you've seen a loss of human capital.
And that could either be filled through very nihilistic, sort of ineffective, low trust things, or it could be filled with good things.
And we need to make an active decision out of our own agency to avoid the bad outcome.
I think that when you look historically at every successful civilization, they were so, so much more fascistic or brutal than the American right wing that any new emergent system that is going to be dominant in the United States or even maintain power in the U.S. I mean, let's be real, like the liberal economic order was 10 times more brutal and fascistic than what we have now.
These were people who said, let's dominate the world through a system of finance and debt and massacre anybody who dares oppose us.
We don't even have that today.
People are largely, the younger generation is anti-intervention, anti-war.
If there is going to be a, whatever emerges from the rubble probably is not something we're seeing today.
No individual or group represents it because it's going to be much more brutal than any of anybody wants to be.
I don't think the left is going to, the left is going to struggle to survive because no one actually believes the things they say.
The question of if they can sort of redirect into being like stupid race communism is to be seen.
They could lower their IQ to survive.
But new forces have to emerge to clean this up.
And I would not use the word fascistic because fascism is a very particular ideology where the state controls everything.
And I could see a brutal regime emerge or a brutal ideology, but it could also be decentralized heroic violence like the Middle Ages.
Or it could be aristocratic republic or military dictatorship or theocracy where the thing I dislike about the Groipers is they assume that the only way to get back at the left is to be a Nazi.
And being a Nazi is one of the worst conservative political positions to pick.
And I think something interesting in that conversation is, as I was saying, whatever dominant system is going to emerge in this country, I don't think we've seen yet.
I don't think we've seen yet.
Because he makes a great point.
The American right is so much weaker than all of the dominant groups throughout history.
Communist China is way more brutal, way more brutal than we are.
And in the arena of violence, the most brutal guy wins.
Noam Chomsky said, right?
Are we willing to do what must be done to defend our world?
And that's, oh, that's a dark question.
Dark question indeed.
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