The Culture War - Tim Pool - Tim Pool VS Sam Seder DEBATE
Aired: 2024-11-01
Duration: 03:03:28


=== Treason and the Death Penalty (15:07) ===

[00:00:00]  We've all seen the headlines in the news of how somebody lost their life in an act of cold-blooded murder, and it grabs your attention, but have you ever stopped to think about the life of the person at the center of the news story?
[00:00:11]  These victims were way more than a salacious headline.
[00:00:14]  I'm Eric Carter-Londine, and my podcast, The Murder in My Family, dives into some of those stories to help listeners get to know the person who was lost, and how their death affected those closest to them.
[00:00:26]  Listen to The Murder in My Family everywhere you listen to podcasts.
[00:00:30]  Disfruta el ritmo y espectáculo de Las Vegas en el Top 10 de Canela Music con una selección top de artistas latinos que se presentan este verano en la capital mundial del entretenimiento.
[00:00:43]  Gratis en Canela Music.
[00:00:45]  Descarga la app.
[00:00:46]  Presentado por Las Vegas.
[00:00:50]  Oh, thank you.
[00:00:51]  That's a good one.
[00:00:52]  I like it.
[00:00:53]  He's got his own beanie.
[00:00:54]  That's right.
[00:00:55]  20 years?
[00:00:56]  What's that?
[00:00:57]  20 years.
[00:00:57]  Is that?
[00:00:58]  20 year anniversary.
[00:00:59]  This is actually a gift for you.
[00:01:04]  Oh, right on.
[00:01:04]  There you go.
[00:01:05]  Yeah.
[00:01:06]  We'll put it.
[00:01:06]  I'll put it on there.
[00:01:07]  I'll put it on the shelf.
[00:01:08]  See, I'll like the weird knickknacks that I have.
[00:01:09]  Well, that's actually for your baby.
[00:01:11]  Oh, thank you very much.
[00:01:13]  Congratulations.
[00:01:14]  I understand that you're expecting.
[00:01:16]  Is that right?
[00:01:17]  Absolutely.
[00:01:18]  Yeah.
[00:01:18]  Yeah.
[00:01:19]  I'm nervous.
[00:01:20]  I hope you're getting sleep.
[00:01:22]  I think I got six hours tonight.
[00:01:24]  Well, is your baby born already?
[00:01:27]  No, no, no.
[00:01:28]  Coming soon.
[00:01:29]  I'm talking about when your child comes.
[00:01:30]  Oh, yeah.
[00:01:31]  Well, I mean, what little sleep I already get probably will be less.
[00:01:34]  All right.
[00:01:35]  Well, there you go.
[00:01:36]  Right on, man.
[00:01:37]  So we'll start light.
[00:01:39]  What do you think is going to happen?
[00:01:40]  I mean, the election is Tuesday, but people are already voting.
[00:01:43]  No, wait, wait, wait.
[00:01:44]  We've got to talk about what am I doing here.
[00:01:47]  Sure, sure.
[00:01:47]  I was going to start light, but you can go with whatever you want.
[00:01:49]  No, I mean, it's light to me, but I thought I was banned.
[00:01:55]  Didn't you say I was banned and blacklisted?
[00:01:59]  Maybe.
[00:01:59]  I don't know the specifics.
[00:02:02]  There's something to that effect.
[00:02:03]  I can send you a link.
[00:02:06]  I teed it up here.
[00:02:09]  It's hard for me to remember verbatim everything I said.
[00:02:14]  I would say...
[00:02:16]  Oh, I mean, you pretty specifically banned...
[00:02:19]  Did I say no Sam Seder at all?
[00:02:21]  Well, I think so.
[00:02:22]  So here, wait a second.
[00:02:23]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:02:25]  Did I say us?
[00:02:29]  I mean, that's pretty strong stuff.
[00:02:46]  My confusion comes from, did I say I would never have you on?
[00:02:50]  And that's why Sam Seder makes all these videos, and he focuses on drama.
[00:02:55]  I mean, the man's obsession with Dave Rubin is laughable.
[00:02:59]  I agree with that to this day.
[00:03:01]  Oh, no.
[00:03:02]  I actually have a real reason for that.
[00:03:06]  Did I say I would never bring you on?
[00:03:08]  Oh, yeah.
[00:03:09]  You did.
[00:03:09]  I might have.
[00:03:10]  I don't know if I have that specific video teed up.
[00:03:13]  I might, though.
[00:03:14]  I may have.
[00:03:15]  I usually, if I get heated or something, but I tend not to be as definitive on things like this.
[00:03:20]  Well, it wasn't just that one time, too.
[00:03:22]  When you went on Patrick Beddavid's show, you said the same thing.
[00:03:26]  Well, but you know, it's true.
[00:03:28]  What's true?
[00:03:29]  There are a lot of big shows that have blacklisted you.
[00:03:31]  Oh, I have no doubt.
[00:03:33]  I have no doubt.
[00:03:34]  It's not about you, nobody wanting to debate you.
[00:03:37]  I mean, the first thing I asked was, like, let's talk about the issues, and you immediately pulled up drama.
[00:03:41]  Well, it's not drama.
[00:03:42]  I think everybody wants to know.
[00:03:43]  It's like a weird...
[00:03:44]  I mean, I kind of...
[00:03:45]  Like, I mean, you know, if you...
[00:03:46]  I used to be a script writer, and if you put a loaded gun in the first scene and you don't resolve it, people are going to be distracted.
[00:03:56]  So this way we can just deal with this, get that out of the way, and then move on to stuff that is more, I think, substantive.
[00:04:02]  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:04:03]  But that's it, right?
[00:04:05]  It's not my business to tell other shows that have brought it up, but...
[00:04:10]  I'm not concerned about other shows.
[00:04:12]  I know why.
[00:04:12]  I'm just curious, what am I doing here?
[00:04:14]  What are you doing, here?
[00:04:16]  Yeah.
[00:04:16]  I decided to have you on.
[00:04:17]  I don't know.
[00:04:17]  I figured there were probably misconceptions you had about me.
[00:04:21]  I think that a lot of what you think about what I say comes from clips and not the actual show.
[00:04:24]  So there's like...
[00:04:26]  I don't really have conceptions of you.
[00:04:29]  Well, this started because you said something that was untrue about my position on the death penalty.
[00:04:35]  And I was like, I think Sam saw a clip that someone pulled out of context and didn't actually hear like my two-hour diatribe on...
[00:04:44]  Yeah, no, I don't.
[00:04:46]  I think actually what I was talking about, I don't think I ever said whether you believe in the death penalty or not.
[00:04:53]  I mean...
[00:04:54]  You cited a quote where you said that I said something like...
[00:04:59]  I cited a quote?
[00:05:00]  Or did I play a video?
[00:05:01]  You stated at the beginning of a video, Tim Pool agrees that people who commit treason should get the death penalty, which is...
[00:05:06]  Is that right?
[00:05:06]  Do you have the video?
[00:05:08]  You must have the video.
[00:05:09]  No?
[00:05:09]  Well, wait a second.
[00:05:10]  And I just went, holy crap.
[00:05:12]  Let me see if I got it, because I'm pretty sure I remember this.
[00:05:16]  It was in the context of you suing Kamala Harris, and you were on with Laura Loomer, and you said the words, people who commit treason should get the death penalty.
[00:05:33]  What's the context of that sentence?
[00:05:35]  What's the context of that sentence?
[00:05:37]  So there's a clip that's five seconds long.
[00:05:39]  Oh no, but I watched the whole rest of it.
[00:05:41]  Like, I know you went back and forth, but it was so weird because you should really, if you can find this and put this up, because what I found fascinating about it was that you literally did say on multiple times and that going back and forth, because apparently what happened is You got in trouble at one point with, I don't know, some streaming service about people calling for the death penalty or whatever it was.
[00:06:03]  I don't know the background to that.
[00:06:05]  YouTube says you can't call for the death penalty as a legal mechanism.
[00:06:08]  Okay.
[00:06:09]  And so she brought up, I think these people committed treason.
[00:06:15]  They should get the death penalty.
[00:06:17]  And you said...
[00:06:19]  I don't know if she said...
[00:06:21]  I don't care what she said, really, for this sake.
[00:06:24]  But I'm quite sure you said...
[00:06:27]  If you commit treason, you should get the death penalty.
[00:06:30]  Now, what words are you missing from that sentence?
[00:06:33]  Because it sounds like you just heard a clip.
[00:06:35]  No, no, no.
[00:06:36]  I watched the whole thing.
[00:06:37]  And then at one point afterwards, you said...
[00:06:40]  Okay, so let's pause, let's pause.
[00:06:42]  We'll break this down.
[00:06:43]  Is it currently codified in law that if you commit treason, the penalty is death?
[00:06:49]  What do you mean by codified?
[00:06:51]  Like, as U.S. law states that the penalty for treason is death.
[00:06:54]  Not necessarily, but it is one.
[00:06:56]  Right.
[00:06:56]  The penalty for treason is death.
[00:06:57]  What is the penalty for murder?
[00:06:59]  It varies.
[00:07:00]  Right.
[00:07:00]  It can be the death penalty.
[00:07:02]  Exactly.
[00:07:02]  So it's the exact same dynamic as treason.
[00:07:04]  Yes.
[00:07:05]  So if we're talking about, in that context, people levying war against the United States, to which I said, I don't believe any of these people committed treason.
[00:07:12]  Correct.
[00:07:12]  Sedition would be trying to undermine or cause damage to the government.
[00:07:16]  Correct.
[00:07:16]  That's not the issue.
[00:07:18]  Right.
[00:07:18]  And so the context of that conversation is, one, I don't agree with the death penalty in no circumstances.
[00:07:23]  But you did say the words...
[00:07:25]  If you committed treason, you should, you should get the death penalty.
[00:07:31]  Okay, so once again, do you not understand?
[00:07:33]  Would you agree if someone commits murder that they should get the death penalty?
[00:07:37]  No.
[00:07:38]  I agree with that.
[00:07:39]  Right.
[00:07:39]  But you did say, if they commit treason, they should get the death penalty.
[00:07:44]  So if we're talking about the penalty for levying war against the country, whether you want it to or not, if a judge sentences someone to death, should they get the death penalty?
[00:07:53]  I don't think people should get the death penalty under any circumstances.
[00:07:56]  If someone is shooting at another person, should they be shot at and killed?
[00:08:00]  If someone is committing an act of violence, actively, is it within the legal rights of a person to return with lethal force?
[00:08:11]  You mean self-defense?
[00:08:13]  Yes.
[00:08:14]  I think so, yeah.
[00:08:15]  Right now, whether you want it to or not, if someone robs a liquor store, should they go to jail?
[00:08:22]  Should they go to jail?
[00:08:23]  Under the current laws, regardless of your opinions, should the police arrest the person?
[00:08:27]  Should the people arrest the person for robbing a liquor store?
[00:08:31]  Yes.
[00:08:31]  I mean, I think they should, yes.
[00:08:33]  You think in literally every single circumstance then, no matter what happens if someone commits a robbery, they should be arrested?
[00:08:41]  I mean, I suppose there could be extenuating circumstances, but yes, if you commit a crime, you should be arrested.
[00:08:49]  So the clarification that I'm trying to make, it's not about...
[00:08:52]  I don't think there's any real reason to try and go back and parse semantics.
[00:08:56]  The concept was if people are levying war against the United States, such as we're on the battlefield somewhere in Iraq or whatever, right?
[00:09:04]  Wait, this whole thing was about treason where you were saying that...
[00:09:08]  Do you want me to explain the ideas or do you want to just go in circles?
[00:09:11]  I don't understand.
[00:09:12]  Well, I want you just to address what I'm talking about instead of talking about war.
[00:09:17]  All right, go ahead, please.
[00:09:19]  Treason is levying war.
[00:09:21]  Treason is levying war?
[00:09:23]  Or providing aid to the enemy of the United States in a time of war.
[00:09:26]  Well, there's been people who have been charged with treason when we're not in an act of war, but yes, I guess.
[00:09:34]  But however you want to parse this, treason is a legal charge against somebody, and there are multiple potential penalties for that, one of which includes capital punishment and...
[00:09:50]  Just for the sake of clarity, because in the show we're talking about, we're not talking about specifics of someone may or may not be wrongly charged.
[00:09:58]  If you're asking me why I would say something like should be, it's rooted in this.
[00:10:02]  Treason against the United States shall consist only in levying war against them or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.
[00:10:08]  No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses of the same overt act or confession in open court.
[00:10:14]  So the issue at hand was when we were talking and I said, I don't think any of these people committed treason.
[00:10:21]  I don't think anything they've done is worthy of death.
[00:10:24]  I don't agree with the death penalty.
[00:10:25]  The return is, but what if they're levying war against us?
[00:10:28]  And then someone decides their life should be forfeit.
[00:10:31]  I watched that video.
[00:10:32]  And in fact, I remember this now.
[00:10:34]  Actually, we were going over the ridiculousness of your lawsuit.
[00:10:41]  And I said, you know, Tim says he doesn't agree with the death penalty.
[00:10:46]  That's fine.
[00:10:46]  And then they played more where you say, if you've committed treason, you should get the death penalty.
[00:10:52]  I mean, and then the interesting thing is, let me finish.
[00:10:57]  Do you want to do a drama circle jerk?
[00:10:59]  Or do you want to actually talk about the ideas of the death penalty and what should or should not happen?
[00:11:03]  No, I personally am against the death penalty.
[00:11:06]  I think you are maybe against the death penalty.
[00:11:10]  I'm 100% against death penalty.
[00:11:11]  But what I found fascinating, it was as if, if you watch that video as it goes further along, maybe you can release it.
[00:11:19]  I don't know if it's behind a paywall.
[00:11:20]  I watched it somewhere, so I know it exists.
[00:11:24]  Maybe it was on Rumble.
[00:11:25]  And if you go along, it's almost like you catch yourself and you realize, like, wait a second, I'm against the death penalty.
[00:11:30]  So, no, you shouldn't get capital punishment.
[00:11:34]  And that's one of the things that I think, like, in terms of, like, that I have always found fascinating about you, and that there's actually a great video by Timba Toast on how you vacillate between different political ideas as a way of, like, maintaining a certain brand.
[00:11:53]  What is the brand?
[00:11:54]  Well, I'm not exactly sure what you think the brand is, but...
[00:11:58]  Here's the challenge.
[00:11:59]  Here's the challenge.
[00:12:00]  You know, if I post a joke on X that is like over the top, for instance, I tweeted Kamala Harris is like Hitler and Stalin times 200 and she's going to kill, she's going to start 800 wars.
[00:12:13]  That was actually written about in various liberal outlets as if it was a fact statement.
[00:12:18]  And so I'm sitting here being like, can they not tell?
[00:12:20]  Well, there's Poe's law.
[00:12:21]  I get it.
[00:12:22]  Sometimes they don't.
[00:12:23]  But the issue at hand right now is just semantics.
[00:12:26]  So instead of saying like, well, you...
[00:12:28]  Dude, we're in the communication business.
[00:12:30]  Like, our words are important.
[00:12:31]  Now, listen, I certainly understand people misinterpreting a tweet.
[00:12:35]  Believe me, I've been there.
[00:12:37]  I will just say this for the sake of clarity.
[00:12:39]  Right now, regardless of my opinions on law, should the law be that someone will receive the death penalty, then they should receive it.
[00:12:47]  I oppose it.
[00:12:48]  But it doesn't necessarily—the treason, the punishment for treason is not necessarily the death penalty any more than it is with murder.
[00:12:55]  All right, so let's just try— Why would you ever say if you're against death penalty— So this is, once again, a misconception I'm trying to get past, so let me explain.
[00:13:00]  Okay.
[00:13:01]  In the circumstance where someone has committed a death-worthy trespass, I oppose the death penalty.
[00:13:07]  I would advocate against it.
[00:13:08]  We recently had a big case where there were two instances where people were put to death.
[00:13:12]  One guy, the family, even said it shouldn't happen.
[00:13:14]  They'd cut a deal with the prosecutor.
[00:13:15]  It still happened.
[00:13:16]  And that was, I believe it was, who was that?
[00:13:19]  That was Missouri.
[00:13:20]  And a lot of people who watch my show were quite outraged that a family would say no.
[00:13:25]  But the issue at hand is I don't assert myself over the rest of the country in law, which means if the mechanism of the courts is as such, that's what should happen.
[00:13:33]  I will fight against it.
[00:13:35]  That's the semantic misunderstanding.
[00:13:37]  Oh, all right.
[00:13:37]  Let's just put it like this.
[00:13:38]  Because you were so offended.
[00:13:40]  I mean, the reason why I thought I was here was because you were so offended that I said you were against the death penalty.
[00:13:45]  You said I was for it.
[00:13:46]  For it.
[00:13:46]  And I got confused when you said someone should get the death penalty.
[00:13:51]  Under a mechanism of law that I oppose.
[00:13:53]  Well, you never said those words.
[00:13:54]  But that was the whole conversation.
[00:13:56]  No, actually it wasn't.
[00:13:58]  Literally was.
[00:13:59]  We can play it.
[00:14:00]  But I mean, look, how about we just, instead of going back and forth and saying it was this show where these things said, we lay down on the table.
[00:14:08]  There it is.
[00:14:09]  Okay, there it is.
[00:14:10]  Death penalty should be opposed.
[00:14:11]  We agree on that.
[00:14:12]  The government is a failed arbiter of who should live or die.
[00:14:16]  This mechanism doesn't work at an institutional level.
[00:14:18]  I don't know that anybody is an arbiter of who should live or die, but yes.
[00:14:24]  Excuse me.
[00:14:25]  There is some context that is more challenging, such as, if a man pointed a weapon at your children, would you decide that he should die?
[00:14:33]  I mean, if someone pointed a weapon at my children, I would attempt to do whatever I needed to do to stop them.
[00:14:41]  Up to and including lethal force.
[00:14:43]  I mean, if that's what it took, of course.
[00:14:46]  So that is you making the decision that you will take action which may lead to the death of an individual.
[00:14:50]  Oh, yeah.
[00:14:51]  I mean, that, you know, I would suffer the consequences, but I don't believe in general that in capital punishment.

=== Active Life Arbiters (05:17) ===

[00:14:59]  I mean, that's not capital punishment.
[00:15:02]  I agree.
[00:15:02]  I agree.
[00:15:02]  I'm just saying that in certain circumstances, a person will decide someone may be about to die.
[00:15:08]  And there's other issues, of course, like whether to render medical aid as a different circumstance.
[00:15:14]  If someone is already dying, then there's – if someone is in peril but you can't save them.
[00:15:18]  But in terms of a human being making an active decision to end someone's life, there are many circumstances where someone will decide that they are the arbiter of that decision.
[00:15:26]  Police officers do it every day.
[00:15:28]  Soldiers do it every day.
[00:15:29]  And often – Regular people.
[00:15:33]  We have the Penny trial in New York right now where they've got the trial going on for Daniel Penny in New York where he put that guy in the chokehold and the guy died.
[00:15:42]  He made that decision at that point.
[00:15:44]  He killed the guy.
[00:15:45]  He did.
[00:15:46]  And he made that decision for whatever reason, I am going to apply this technique to this man.
[00:15:51]  It may result in death.
[00:15:53]  So at a certain point, someone makes that choice.
[00:15:55]  The question then is, do we agree that the choice was necessary or that they were backed into a corner?
[00:16:00]  And that's a difficult decision.
[00:16:01]  So I would just put it this way.
[00:16:03]  I think in a perfect world— It has nothing to do with capital punishment, though.
[00:16:06]  It's about whether someone chooses someone else should die.
[00:16:09]  Right, but that has nothing to do with capital punishment.
[00:16:13]  Capital punishment is definitely a punishment that is put out by the government as opposed to an individual's decision as to whether or not they're going to apply lethal force to somebody.
[00:16:25]  It has nothing to do with it.
[00:16:26]  You would never say that Penny provided capital punishment to that guy on the subway because...
[00:16:32]  I don't think I was making that argument.
[00:16:34]  Well, that's what I'm saying.
[00:16:35]  It has nothing to do with capital punishment.
[00:16:36]  Just in the sense that someone's making a decision over someone's death.
[00:16:39]  And the question being, in the case of self-defense, I agree there are circumstances.
[00:16:43]  And in the case of capital punishment, I agree there are no circumstances.
[00:16:47]  I don't believe there's a reality where the government has successfully subdued an individual who they are no longer a threat.
[00:16:54]  And then they just decide 20 years later, now let's kill the person.
[00:16:56]  That makes no sense to me.
[00:16:58]  No, I agree.
[00:16:59]  I do not believe that we should have capital punishment.
[00:17:04]  I do not believe in the death penalty.
[00:17:07]  How do we stop it?
[00:17:09]  Well, I mean, there have been times in the past where we've come close, I think.
[00:17:15]  Sadly, I think because of all of the ginned-up stuff about crime in this country over the past couple of years, I think we're moving in the wrong direction.
[00:17:29]  I think the Democrats actually took it out of their platform this year.
[00:17:33]  That's crazy.
[00:17:37]  It is a problem.
[00:17:38]  There is a cost associated with the attempts to scare people about crime in this country, and that's one of the costs, that we move further away from some type of positive public policy.
[00:17:55]  4% of death row inmates are likely innocent.
[00:17:59]  And that means at an institutional level, people in this country, except four in 100 people, will be murdered by the state, unjustly killed, for a sense of security?
[00:18:11]  I reject that outright.
[00:18:14]  Yeah, I mean, I just I think I think both in terms of efficacy, but even in terms of I think, if you feel that there is a situation where in without a threat to anybody, right?
[00:18:31]  I mean, these people all in jail, that there is a justification to kill someone in cold blood, then I think it just becomes a negotiation as to when it's not.
[00:18:41]  You know what really gets me too is what I hear from a lot of people is what about when you know?
[00:18:47]  You've seen on video they're harming a child or they're doing something, and it's funny because in a circumstance where an individual literally witnesses a crime happening, it's easy to say, sure, sure, we can – like if you're out in public and you see someone committing an egregious crime that is going to cause great bodily harm or death – But why does that justify an institutional, national-level mechanism by which the government can decide that someone dies?
[00:19:12]  I think it comes down to 12 people walk into a room, someone they've never met before points to a person they've never met, and they say, trust me, kill him.
[00:19:21]  And these people are like, well, sure, I guess.
[00:19:23]  I just think that's insanity.
[00:19:25]  No, I agree.
[00:19:26]  I mean, you brought up the penny thing.
[00:19:29]  And I think, like, you know, that's why it's even that much more egregious, in my opinion, his killing of that man, because I don't believe in that situation there was any type of threat that justified holding this guy in a chokehold for that many minutes at all, frankly, for that matter.
[00:19:49]  What do you think, like, the penalty should be?
[00:19:51]  Like, do you think, like, they're charging him, I think, with negligent, is it negligent homicide?
[00:19:54]  I'm not sure.

=== Why Bystanders Failed (05:09) ===

[00:19:56]  At the very least, I would imagine manslaughter.
[00:19:59]  But generally, as a rule, I don't really parse out court cases.
[00:20:10]  I mean, if there's a charge, as a matter of public policy, there are instances where I think that People should be charged.
[00:20:19]  But beyond that, then I just, you know, I didn't even watch the OJ trial.
[00:20:26]  I'm curious about your thoughts on this story.
[00:20:28]  This is from NBC News from 2021.
[00:20:30]  Police say writers didn't help women raped on train because of the bystander effect.
[00:20:35]  Explain why.
[00:20:37]  Does the bystander effect explain why?
[00:20:40]  Philadelphia police said writers did not call 911, instead held their cell phones up in direction of the assault.
[00:20:45]  You know, in a circumstance like this, this was a huge story.
[00:20:49]  40 minutes, a woman was harassed by a stranger on a public train and then raped while bystanders just watched.
[00:20:57]  What would you do?
[00:20:58]  Like, what do you think a person should do in a circumstance like that?
[00:21:00]  At the very least, I would call 911.
[00:21:02]  That's correct.
[00:21:02]  Yeah, right.
[00:21:02]  Nobody did.
[00:21:04]  And over the course of 40 minutes, I mean...
[00:21:10]  Over the course of four...
[00:21:11]  I mean, I'm not familiar with this story, but if...
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[00:21:43]  I watched someone being assaulted.
[00:21:46]  Raped.
[00:21:47]  Or raped.
[00:21:50]  Yes, I would intervene.
[00:21:52]  I would push that person away.
[00:21:55]  I would attempt to stop them from raping that person.
[00:22:00]  I think anybody should.
[00:22:01]  What has that got to do with this?
[00:22:03]  Well, we've got two extremes, I suppose, right?
[00:22:05]  With Neely, you've got a woman who said that she felt like her life was in danger, as one of the witnesses.
[00:22:11]  Well, we've seen that.
[00:22:11]  I mean, there were people all around there, and the idea that she felt like her life was in danger, I mean, A, she's not communicating that to the guy, to Neely.
[00:22:25]  B, it was quite clear that, you know, I don't know, minute two, minute three, minute four, that this person is not going to end up killing that person.
[00:22:42]  I would imagine that if this guy attempted to assault her anymore, Neely could have pushed him away, or they could have held them down.
[00:22:53]  But a chokehold is a lethal thing, and he held it for a minute.
[00:22:56]  Do you think that you would wait until the woman was being raped before you would intervene?
[00:23:01]  You know, probably not.
[00:23:03]  But how would you know then if the guy is like a threat unless he's actively committing harm?
[00:23:08]  Well, I mean, if he's like actively committing harm, there's a there's, you know, I would assume I don't I'm not familiar with that story, but I would assume that it would start out where the guy is physically assaulting her.
[00:23:25]  Holding her down or whatnot.
[00:23:27]  And I think at that point I would go and intervene.
[00:23:30]  But I think the problem in this instance, and again, like, you know, the guy's been charged.
[00:23:37]  That's basically where my interest, you know, I move on to other things.
[00:23:43]  But in an instance where you're putting someone in a chokehold, which again, he's trained.
[00:23:51]  He's a Marine, right?
[00:23:52]  Yeah.
[00:23:52]  He must know this is a lethal...
[00:23:57]  You know, you're putting someone in a chokehold for five or six minutes.
[00:24:00]  I think that's a problem.
[00:24:03]  Yeah, I mean, for me, I just, I wouldn't, I have no idea.
[00:24:07]  You know, I see both stories, and it seems like they're both on the ends, right?
[00:24:10]  Jordan Neely didn't do anything.
[00:24:12]  People may have claimed they have felt threatened.
[00:24:13]  In this regard, it's a woman who was quite literally raped.
[00:24:16]  In one instance, you have intervention.
[00:24:17]  People aren't even calling 911.
[00:24:19]  I mean, I don't know what's going on there.
[00:24:21]  Yeah, that's absurd.
[00:24:22]  I know, it's a crazy story.
[00:24:23]  I think, you know, there's...
[00:24:26]  I don't think you have to have too nimble or nuanced of a brain to say there's a difference between watching someone get raped and not calling 911 and putting someone in a chokehold for six minutes.
[00:24:38]  I feel like there's a...
[00:24:41]  Yeah, these are pretty wide disparities.
[00:24:44]  This is not...
[00:24:45]  That's what I mean, like on the extreme ends.
[00:24:46]  You get these stories where it's no intervention to the extreme degree and then intervention to a person's death.

=== Crime Trends In New York (11:35) ===

[00:24:53]  And it's like maybe we don't see the stories of any kind of in-between because they're not sensational.
[00:24:58]  I'm sure something happened on a train recently in New York where the guy was getting violent.
[00:25:02]  He got shoved.
[00:25:03]  Everything stopped.
[00:25:04]  You know what I mean?
[00:25:05]  NBC News is ever going to carry the story because there's nothing extreme about it.
[00:25:08]  And so we only ever get these edge cases which put people on one side or the other.
[00:25:13]  Yeah.
[00:25:13]  I mean, you know, stuff happens in the subway all the time.
[00:25:18]  New York's been getting pretty wild.
[00:25:20]  I suppose it's relative to the amount of crime.
[00:25:23]  And getting wild in what way?
[00:25:25]  There were, I think, what, last year, like 25 people were pushed in front of trains.
[00:25:29]  I mean, I can tell you that crime in New York City is down still around historic lows.
[00:25:37]  I mean, I was, you know, I'm old, so I remember New York in the late 80s.
[00:25:42]  And, I mean, it's...
[00:25:45]  Wow.
[00:25:46]  It's like...
[00:25:47]  Three years ago, sorry, I was wrong.
[00:25:49]  Yeah, it was in 2022, I think it was.
[00:25:51]  Oh, well, I mean, listen, during COVID, we had a once-in-a-lifetime event, hopefully, knock on wood, and a lot of things got messed up, but crime has backed down.
[00:26:03]  You know the only crime that has gone up, which is fascinating, And for all of the BS that we heard over the past couple of years about, you know, shoplifting and smash and grab and all that, do you know what the one major crime that is up?
[00:26:23]  Which one?
[00:26:24]  Statistically?
[00:26:25]  It's actually shoplifting.
[00:26:27]  Shoplifting went up in 2023 and...
[00:26:32]  It is now, because it went down during COVID. So as much as we heard, because, and I know you've talked about this quite a bit, and I think it's been misrepresented in a lot of respects, that all of the shoplifting was up and people are gone, mayhem, it's crazy.
[00:26:49]  It was actually below where it was in 2019, and it is now back up to where it was in 2019.
[00:26:56]  Yeah.
[00:26:57]  I think.
[00:26:58]  And because COVID was, you know, screwed up with our society so much.
[00:27:02]  But again, you ask me why are we going the wrong direction with capital punishment?
[00:27:06]  I would say it is the absolute BS that has been shoveled.
[00:27:11]  I don't watch your show enough to know, although I've seen people on here who, you know, when Emma was on, who promote this idea that there was like this explosion of crime.
[00:27:24]  And in fact, what ends up happening is that yes, during COVID, there was a spike.
[00:27:28]  And now we're back down.
[00:27:30]  And the only thing that is back at 2019 levels is actually shoplifting because it had gone down and it's gone back up because we're back to normal.
[00:27:39]  So, I'm trying to pull up the Marshall Project.
[00:27:41]  This is a good one.
[00:27:44]  So we had these – this was the story that happened, and this is what's a cause for contention.
[00:27:48]  The FBI released crime data showing that crime had gone down, and during the presidential debates, David Muir fact-checked Donald Trump saying actually crime is down.
[00:27:58]  However, recently the FBI released new crime data showing that actually it was up.
[00:28:04]  It was up, I believe, 4.5 percent.
[00:28:06]  When?
[00:28:06]  What year?
[00:28:07]  The year prior, 2021.
[00:28:09]  It was up.
[00:28:11]  Yeah.
[00:28:11]  So the latest data that we have...
[00:28:12]  No, no.
[00:28:13]  It was actually 2022.
[00:28:14]  We knew...
[00:28:15]  We knew...
[00:28:16]  Yeah, it was 2020.
[00:28:17]  I'm sorry.
[00:28:17]  The increase from 2021.
[00:28:18]  Yeah.
[00:28:20]  Yeah.
[00:28:21]  During COVID. In the wake of COVID, 2022 was up because the data reporting was not complete.
[00:28:27]  But if you look at 2023 data, which is now...
[00:28:32]  They have got enough of the police departments online that 94 point...
[00:28:38]  I don't know, something.
[00:28:40]  of the country is covered, you will find that crime is down in 2023.
[00:28:44]  So do you think, I think one of the issues...
[00:28:47]  We had a rise because of COVID, and now it's dropping back down.
[00:28:51]  But again, let's also be clear on this.
[00:28:53]  If you compare 1990 crime with today, it's basically like this.
[00:29:01]  It's just straight down on that ground.
[00:29:04]  You want to know something interesting?
[00:29:05]  You know what one of the biggest factors in the decline in murder is?
[00:29:09]  Cell phones.
[00:29:11]  So back in the day, in the 90s, if somebody got stabbed, somebody had to run to a payphone to try and call 911.
[00:29:16]  And that created a massive gap between first response and medical treatment.
[00:29:21]  And so around the time cell phones came out, you see a massive drop in murder charges and homicides.
[00:29:26]  People immediately started thinking like, wow, crime is down.
[00:29:29]  And it's like, well, no, no, no, look at the crime data.
[00:29:31]  It is down.
[00:29:32]  It is going down.
[00:29:33]  But it's not the same.
[00:29:34]  There's a decline in crime and a sharp decline in murder because now people were instantly calling 911 and first responders were arriving on scene much more quickly.
[00:29:41]  So that's OK.
[00:29:42]  But also the other part was, yeah, I mean, that's interesting.
[00:29:46]  Crime has been going down.
[00:29:46]  Crime has been going down.
[00:29:47]  I mean, you know, there's a lot of theories about it.
[00:29:49]  I happen to think it's a function of lead, to be honest with you.
[00:29:52]  I agree.
[00:29:52]  Lead and gasoline.
[00:29:53]  Lead and gasoline and lead regulation is another example of strong government regulation bringing about benefits that we couldn't even imagine.
[00:30:04]  I agree.
[00:30:05]  What do you think?
[00:30:06]  I don't understand the mechanism by which lead made crime happen.
[00:30:09]  I saw the reports, though.
[00:30:10]  Well, I mean, lead is a neurotoxin, and if you have brain damage, you're more likely to be maybe violent or antisocial.
[00:30:24]  That's crazy.
[00:30:24]  In the 70s when we had leaded gasoline and it's just pumping out of all these cars, people are effectively having some kind of effect on their brain.
[00:30:33]  It aggregates.
[00:30:34]  And so if you are living in areas that had a lot of lead paint, hadn't been remediated, and on top of that you're getting...
[00:30:49]  The gasoline that's in the air, or I should say lead that is, you know, in the air because of gas, that accumulates in your brain and it creates neurotoxin.
[00:31:00]  That's why we have that problem in Flint, Michigan, with the lead poisoning.
[00:31:03]  We have a lot of children, you know, who have special needs.
[00:31:10]  And there is data.
[00:31:13]  I mean, this is, you know...
[00:31:14]  It's very difficult to assess this stuff.
[00:31:17]  But there's data that shows that about 20 years after lead gasoline is outlawed, you see a precipitous drop in crime both internationally and in this country.
[00:31:32]  What do you think about phthalates?
[00:31:33]  Are you familiar?
[00:31:34]  No.
[00:31:35]  So plastic chemicals leaching into our food.
[00:31:38]  Oh, yeah.
[00:31:39]  Even these cans.
[00:31:41]  So I'm going to give a shout out to Liquid Death.
[00:31:43]  Look at Mattamy, I guess.
[00:31:44]  So Liquid Death is water in cans and it says death to plastic, but every single aluminum can is lined with plastic.
[00:31:51]  So it's all leaching into our...
[00:31:52]  Yeah, even these midriffs.
[00:31:54]  They say they're endocrine disruptors.
[00:31:56]  So they're affecting people's hormone regulation, hormone imbalance.
[00:31:59]  This could lead to – depending on the study, hormone imbalance could lead to like emotional disturbances or dissociative or like identity issues.
[00:32:08]  This is one of the reasons why, I mean, since we are a couple days away from an election, why I think it's so important to make sure that Donald Trump is not in a position to appoint any more Supreme Court justices.
[00:32:25]  I mean, the damage has been done, but it could be rectified because one of the things that the Supreme Court has done in its assault on what is known as the Chevron Doctrine and deference is it will,
[00:32:47]  over time, Inhibit the ability of something like the EPA or the USDA or the FDA from assessing in real time that there is a problem with certain products that is poisoning our environment or poisoning our people and it will inhibit their ability to address it because We don't know in the future,
[00:33:15]  and certainly, you know, what chemicals, you know, we discovered this over time, right?
[00:33:21]  We didn't know this when plastic, you know, plastics are fantastic.
[00:33:23]  And then we start to realize there's these PFAS, there's these things that you mentioned.
[00:33:28]  Maybe in the context of fracking, there are certain things leaching into water, but you probably know that you can't just, like, there's no, I test water, and then all the bad stuff comes back on the test sheet.
[00:33:39]  You must look for specific things.
[00:33:42]  Well, what the Supreme Court has done is inhibited, and this actually is a problem for investors like the SEC and other agencies, they have inhibited the ability of these agencies to do their work as scientists, as financial regulators, Find problems that exist that were not contemplated by Congress and act upon them.
[00:34:09]  Because Congress doesn't have the ability, you know, to act on every single or anticipate every single substance that may be a problem for people.
[00:34:21]  High fructose corn syrup.
[00:34:23]  I mean that's also a problem.
[00:34:25]  That was under the Nixon administration.
[00:34:28]  They decided they wanted to increase the amount of money that – expendable money that people had.
[00:34:37]  So they decided to subsidize corn and make all the food cheaper.
[00:34:45]  Isn't it weird how the high fructose corn stuff happens?
[00:34:47]  They subsidize corn.
[00:34:49]  So then these researchers are like, corn's so cheap now because it's being paid for by taxpayers that we can produce—it's actually difficult to make high-fructose corn syrup.
[00:34:59]  It's more expensive than sugar, but the government subsidy has resulted in— 100%.
[00:35:04]  It's also the filler in all our foods.
[00:35:06]  Yeah.
[00:35:07]  I was reading something recently that said that the high colon cancer rate among young people is due to emulsifiers.
[00:35:13]  They're using like gel and gum and guar gum and these things in dairy products.
[00:35:18]  So, or not even just dairy products, but like to make it seem like it's fatty.
[00:35:22]  And so you're actually just eating this like gum stuff that gunks up your insides.
[00:35:26]  Yeah.
[00:35:27]  I don't know how you appropriately regulate or deal with things like that, because it's like you're saying, we don't know what it's going to do until we have all this data and research for a long period of time.
[00:35:37]  I mean, we could regulate against it.
[00:35:41]  I wasn't quite a fan of Michael Bloomberg, but one of the things he did was, I think it was during the Bloomberg administration, there were polysaturated fats, I think it was, that were outlawed in New York City.
[00:35:53]  I think that's become the norm around the country.
[00:35:57]  Even, like, you couldn't buy a 40-ounce soda.
[00:36:01]  That was kind of weird.
[00:36:02]  Not really, because it's the same principle, right?
[00:36:05]  I mean, the fact is, is that, like...
[00:36:08]  And the pushback from conservatives in this was so ridiculous, because, like, look, I can't go buy a, you know, a pony version of, like, a beer.

=== Why We Want to Reduce Waste (02:55) ===

[00:36:19]  Like, I don't want a 12-ounce beer.
[00:36:21]  That's not illegal.
[00:36:22]  I want to...
[00:36:23]  But I can't.
[00:36:24]  It's not available to me.
[00:36:25]  I mean, the size distribution, what difference does it make?
[00:36:28]  Like, at the end of the day?
[00:36:29]  Well, that's true, because people just bought two sodas.
[00:36:32]  It is.
[00:36:32]  I mean, if you buy two sodas, at least you're trying to basically, you know, you're not...
[00:36:39]  You're not outlawing sodas or whatnot, but you're trying to encourage less cost, essentially, for society, right?
[00:36:49]  Because more people get diabetes, that ends up costing society more.
[00:36:52]  I mean, so there's a lot of value to regulation.
[00:36:55]  You know, look, we saw this in the context of light bulbs.
[00:36:58]  The light technology we have in here, all these LEDs, it's a lot cooler in here than it would be if we had the old-timey lights.
[00:37:09]  The LEDs don't.
[00:37:10]  They're cheaper.
[00:37:11]  It took a couple years before you got the technology that was better.
[00:37:15]  Maybe you remember this, but the...
[00:37:20]  Outrage by conservatives over the light bulbs.
[00:37:24]  You know, and we hear Trump talk about this, too, with the toilets and whatnot.
[00:37:28]  Incidentally, I'm very sorry.
[00:37:29]  You have a very fancy toilet.
[00:37:32]  What does that mean?
[00:37:33]  Well, you have a very fancy toilet.
[00:37:34]  You apologized.
[00:37:36]  Well, it wouldn't flush.
[00:37:38]  Yeah, because it's a fancy toilet, it's trying to save water.
[00:37:42]  We try, man.
[00:37:43]  No, I appreciate that.
[00:37:45]  You end up having to press it several times.
[00:37:46]  And then, you know...
[00:37:47]  It didn't work for me.
[00:37:49]  Should we just get the regular one?
[00:37:51]  The regular...
[00:37:51]  I don't know what you should do, but maybe I'll call the authorities because I... Well, I mean, but that's kind of an issue, right?
[00:37:57]  We have this, like, high-end eco-toilet.
[00:38:00]  It will...
[00:38:01]  Well, it's a bidet, and it's fantastic.
[00:38:03]  I really enjoyed that part of it.
[00:38:06]  But it won't flush!
[00:38:08]  It didn't flush.
[00:38:09]  Yeah, people keep asking, like, I don't understand.
[00:38:11]  I'm like, you gotta press it, like, three times.
[00:38:12]  Because it has, like, a sensor.
[00:38:14]  I pressed it, like, five.
[00:38:17]  So, I mean, this kind of feels like an example.
[00:38:20]  So we agree we want to reduce excess waste.
[00:38:25]  We want to reduce overuse, waste in general.
[00:38:29]  Like, we don't want to produce waste.
[00:38:30]  We want to not waste things like fresh water.
[00:38:33]  But now we have a toilet that requires five flushes because we tried doing the right thing.
[00:38:37]  I mean, look, you know, you just bought the wrong toilet.
[00:38:40]  I mean, I have low flow.
[00:38:43]  You can find low flow, you know, manual toilets.
[00:38:46]  I mean, that's a high-end toilet.
[00:38:49]  Somebody screwed up.

=== Regulating Guns: A Push and Pull (08:05) ===

[00:38:51]  But, I mean, the bottom line is all of these, there are definitely regulations that Nobody's forcing you to buy that toilet.
[00:38:59]  But there are definitely regulations that we find over time are not as effective as we thought.
[00:39:05]  But the bottom line is all of this deregulation that we're seeing is a function of largely of, well, certainly of conservatives, but largely a function of the Republican Party.
[00:39:21]  And now we see, you know, for me, I... Kamala Harris would not be the first person that I would vote for.
[00:39:31]  But in terms of the Supreme Court, that alone is enough for me.
[00:39:39]  And federal courts, I would say, too, broadly.
[00:39:42]  How do we balance this?
[00:39:44]  So there's a push and pull between private and public.
[00:39:47]  There are – I've never been a laissez-faire libertarian guy.
[00:39:49]  I've never heard a good argument from a libertarian about how you protect water.
[00:39:53]  I've often brought up the Clean Water Restoration Act.
[00:39:57]  Are you familiar?
[00:40:00]  A little bit.
[00:40:01]  I'm not trying to put you on the spot.
[00:40:03]  I think it was the 70s.
[00:40:04]  I'm not sure if it was the Cuyahoga River.
[00:40:06]  It was the Cuyahoga River in Ohio that was on fire.
[00:40:09]  And that's where we got the EPA from.
[00:40:11]  Right.
[00:40:11]  And people were like, why is this?
[00:40:13]  And what ends up happening is all of these corporations say, don't look at me.
[00:40:16]  I only did a little bit.
[00:40:17]  And it's like, well, yeah, but literally everybody doing a little bit is an avalanche.
[00:40:21]  Yes, of course.
[00:40:22]  I've never heard a good answer for how you deal with something like that.
[00:40:24]  Just claiming someone owns the river changes nothing.
[00:40:26]  No, of course it doesn't.
[00:40:28]  I mean, I've had many, many debates.
[00:40:29]  People can look on my channel for my debates with libertarians, and at one point it all just turns into ridiculous mush with libertarians.
[00:40:37]  And look, the idea that you are either pro-regulation or anti-regulation, to be anti-regulation is, in my estimation, absurd.
[00:40:50]  But that doesn't mean that you don't look at each regulation and make an assessment as to whether it's functioning or not.
[00:40:57]  There's a lot of local regulations that I think are unhelpful at times.
[00:41:01]  I'm sure on a federal level there are some regulations that are unhelpful.
[00:41:05]  But bottom line is, fundamentally, do you allow the government to have this ability to regulate?
[00:41:12]  The idea that we have...
[00:41:13]  That it inhibits the free market in some way.
[00:41:17]  I think the idea of a free market is absurd, doesn't exist.
[00:41:20]  But beyond that, we're always regulating the market.
[00:41:25]  It's just a question for whose benefit are we regulating it.
[00:41:28]  That's the bottom line.
[00:41:29]  I think free markets can only exist temporarily until someone amasses power and then displaces the market and becomes the power structure.
[00:41:36]  know like what what is a free market it would it would be like 10 people who live 10 miles from each other they trade periodically but once you get to a point where anyone controls one we've all seen the headlines in the news of how somebody lost their life in an act of cold-blooded murder and it grabs your attention But have you ever stopped to think about the life of the person at the center of the news story?
[00:41:57]  These victims were way more than a salacious headline.
[00:42:00]  I'm Eric Carter-Londine, and my podcast, The Murder in My Family, dives into some of those stories to help listeners get to know the person who was lost and how their death affected those closest to them.
[00:42:12]  Listen to The Murder in My Family everywhere you listen to podcasts.
[00:42:16]  Resource.
[00:42:17]  You start to get power displacement and then you'll end up with power centralizing.
[00:42:21]  Yes.
[00:42:22]  Well, the first thing that you're talking about, you know, hasn't existed in, you know, forever.
[00:42:28]  Forever.
[00:42:29]  But it's like I talk about this with left libertarianism because a lot of people on the right say it doesn't exist.
[00:42:35]  And I'm like, it absolutely does.
[00:42:37]  It's hippies living on a farm.
[00:42:38]  You know what I mean?
[00:42:39]  That's left libertarianism.
[00:42:40]  They're just hippies on a farm.
[00:42:42]  There's no need for great power structures or police because 10 people living on a farm get along just fine.
[00:42:47]  Yeah, but maybe they're completely self-sufficient, but they got there in some fashion and it wasn't...
[00:42:57]  They drove on roads that were built by a society.
[00:43:01]  It is funny because I always hear libertarians say that it's a meme, who's going to build the roads?
[00:43:06]  And I never actually get a response.
[00:43:08]  Well, you can find private companies that are going to build roads, but they're As they do.
[00:43:14]  Yes, but they're not going to build it to everywhere.
[00:43:17]  Like, you know, out here.
[00:43:19]  We had to build this road.
[00:43:20]  Well, you built the road.
[00:43:21]  Not the paved one.
[00:43:24]  No, no, no.
[00:43:24]  The one that goes onto the property, we had to build.
[00:43:26]  Well, yes, of course.
[00:43:27]  Of course.
[00:43:28]  But the paved one gives you the opportunity to, you know, that's the way you get to the airport.
[00:43:34]  Yeah.
[00:43:35]  So I guess the point about regulation is I certainly agree.
[00:43:39]  It's like Republicans across the board are almost always talking about deregulation.
[00:43:43]  But it's absurd.
[00:43:44]  But I don't see Democrats talking about cleaning regulation either.
[00:43:47]  Right.
[00:43:47]  There's a give and take.
[00:43:48]  But let me give you a better example.
[00:43:50]  What is cleaning regulation?
[00:43:51]  Getting rid of the bad ones.
[00:43:52]  Oh, my God.
[00:43:53]  I mean, I would say so to an excessive standpoint.
[00:43:57]  I mean, this is, you know, and I'm not speaking positively this, but, you know, that guy Cass Sunstein underneath the under the Obama administration was absurd.
[00:44:08]  The idea, you know, look, the I don't think you ever have to worry about the Democrats putting too much regulation on things because, to a certain extent, there's still elements within that party, and hopefully it's getting drummed out.
[00:44:23]  Well, guns is a good issue.
[00:44:25]  Neoliberalism.
[00:44:27]  Guns are overregulated in ways that don't quite make sense.
[00:44:31]  That's an example of, for instance, semantic definitions of high capacity and standard capacity, what those even mean.
[00:44:39]  But more importantly, the specific example would be in Maryland, they've banned the M1A, but the SCAR-20S is legal.
[00:44:46]  And there's no reason for it other than Democrats just decided we will start regulating these things because it sounds good on paper.
[00:44:53]  Yeah.
[00:44:54]  I think that probably the reason is that we have a court that decided in 2008, after almost 200 years in this country, of not perceiving an individual right to carry a gun,
[00:45:11]  but only in the context of being a well-regulated militia, That because the court has lurched so far to the right over the past two decades, particularly most recently, that I think the idea is that you chip away at this from a legal perspective to try and build a legal precedent by doing, you know, whatever.
[00:45:33]  I mean, I'm not familiar with that specific regulation, but I would imagine that's the idea.
[00:45:38]  We're going to get as much regulation as we can in this.
[00:45:42]  I don't know, like, what's the damage done by that?
[00:45:45]  Maybe from the perspective...
[00:45:46]  Made people felons who have, like, an archaic...
[00:45:49]  It's unfair to call it archaic, I guess, but, like, the M1 Garand is, like, a Vietnam weapon, and the M1A is a more modern version, but it's, like, a wood stock, and it's got, like, a...
[00:46:00]  It was a.308.
[00:46:02]  The Scar 20S is a modern AR-15-style variant, which is substantially more efficient...
[00:46:07]  I am definitely in favor of outlying all of them, if that makes it easier.
[00:46:14]  Every single one?
[00:46:15]  Well, listen, I have no problem with people using weapons that are specifically for hunting.
[00:46:27]  I'm okay with that.
[00:46:30]  See how I segwayed into guns now?
[00:46:31]  Well, I'm happy to, you know, I mean, it's absurd, I think.
[00:46:36]  You know, the Supreme Court has lurched to the right and we have two Supreme Court justices on the right who I think want to retire in Alito and in Clarence Thomas.

=== Signs Pointing to Trump (02:20) ===

[00:46:49]  And I would love Donald Trump not to have the opportunity to appoint their successors.
[00:46:55]  I don't want to go too—I want to stay on the guns for a bit, but the sign's pointing to a Trump victory.
[00:47:02]  It doesn't mean he's going to win.
[00:47:03]  I don't know if he's going to win.
[00:47:04]  Didn't you tell me—we were driving up and somebody asked me if I'd been on your show before, and I said, yeah, I don't know what show it was because you got so many, but— It was actually this channel.
[00:47:16]  Okay.
[00:47:17]  That was like seven years ago.
[00:47:18]  And nobody can find that interview, but I'm quite convinced that you also predicted a Trump victory then, and that must have been like, it was pre-COVID. Well, this was like 2017, 2018.
[00:47:29]  Okay.
[00:47:29]  So I don't know.
[00:47:30]  I mean, maybe not, but I'm pretty sure it was.
[00:47:32]  I mean, I am unclear as to who's going to win this election.
[00:47:36]  I see positive signs for Harris, but I can't tell if that's me being aspirational or not.
[00:47:45]  Yeah.
[00:47:46]  I would certainly say I learned my lesson with 2020, right?
[00:47:49]  So I'm looking at, for instance, Moody's Analytics, and they always release this economic report where they're like, here's our projections, and they tout how it's historically accurate.
[00:47:58]  And then what I think I saw well was there was an increase in support for Trump, and what I thought I was calling out accurately was an increase in opposition to Trump, but the opposition certainly was greater.
[00:48:09]  But I think the biggest function of 2020 was Republicans just don't know how to win elections.
[00:48:14]  Right.
[00:48:15]  They, that's why I think, what, the last Republican to win a popular vote was, was it Reagan, I think?
[00:48:20]  No, well, Bush in his second election did, but he did that by basically coming out and bashing gay people and driving out the, well, no, I think that was actually, despite the fact, I mean, you know, in the wake of 9-11,
[00:48:36]  And there was a lot of intimidation by the Republicans and they attacked a lot of Democrats for being, you know, Max Cleland, who lost like both his arms and his legs in or an arm and two of his legs.

=== Rightward Shift Debate (11:05) ===

[00:48:53]  I think it was in the he was running for reelection in Georgia and they they called him Osama bin Laden.
[00:48:59]  Wow.
[00:49:01]  The but yeah, I mean, who knows?
[00:49:06]  Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning and the 5% came in.
[00:49:10]  So I don't...
[00:49:11]  I just...
[00:49:12]  I'm going to ask you about this, about the Supreme Court, because it sounds like you have a problem with how their right would shift.
[00:49:18]  Is that right?
[00:49:19]  The first challenge is, like, right and left mean different things in different areas of governance and culture and things like this.
[00:49:25]  So it's, when we talk about right...
[00:49:28]  Well, I'm talking about in terms of the Supreme Court, in the context of what the Supreme Court does.
[00:49:32]  I mean, they don't dictate culture so much as they dictate law.
[00:49:37]  What I mean is, like, you say rightward shift and...
[00:49:42]  Defining what right and left are in different contexts, I think, matters because if we say— Okay, well, in the context of the Supreme Court, rightward shift would be one which— Traditionalist, I would say, versus progressive.
[00:49:54]  That's what I'm trying to draw a distinction on because, like, right economic is—they're certainly not right economic to a certain degree.
[00:49:59]  The Supreme Court is not right-wing in terms of economics?
[00:50:02]  So right economics to imply more like laissez-faire capitalism versus...
[00:50:06]  Oh my God, they're completely attacking the government's ability to regulate.
[00:50:11]  They're completely attacking the government.
[00:50:14]  Disempowering the government is basically saying, like, I mean, government is always, always...
[00:50:20]  That's not laissez-faire.
[00:50:22]  It is almost definitionally laissez-faire, yes.
[00:50:25]  Well, no, like allowing large corporations to have revolving door policies and protections for large corporations is not – Revolving door policies?
[00:50:32]  What do you mean?
[00:50:32]  Like when the CEO of Halliburton gets a job in government or something like this, right?
[00:50:38]  Well, no.
[00:50:38]  when there's an exchange between the government.
[00:50:40]  Laissez-faire is where you basically is, I mean, I think it's a smokes...
[00:50:47]  No, that's caveat emptor.
[00:50:49]  I know.
[00:50:49]  That's why I'm insulting it.
[00:50:50]  Laissez-faire is where essentially...
[00:50:54]  And I think it's a little bit of a smokescreen, but laissez-faire specifically means the government completely backs off and does not intervene in what's going on.
[00:51:08]  And what I'm saying is I think many of these powerful elites that we would describe as right are in favor of protections for their buddies and their billionaires.
[00:51:08]  Right.
[00:51:14]  Right.
[00:51:14]  Well, the reality of neoliberalism as it coming out of Mont Peleron and the society was ultimately about a protection racket for a specific industry or specific players within an industry.
[00:51:34]  But fair point, more rightward than like relative to where we are.
[00:51:37]  Yes, completely agree.
[00:51:38]  No, it's just it's almost definitionally right.
[00:51:41]  Rightward shift.
[00:51:42]  Yeah, I think I was pulling hairs, you know.
[00:51:45]  But anyway, so I agree to a certain extent.
[00:51:49]  I'm fairly moderate on a lot of issues.
[00:51:51]  I think there's got to be some push and pull, I think.
[00:51:53]  I'd like to see a Democratic Party that provides sound regulation in key areas that matter, like we're talking about lead and water and things like this.
[00:52:00]  And then I'd like to see actually any party, I don't care who does it, like it's a sound reason to be like, hey, don't dump lead and garbage in our water.
[00:52:08]  But at the same time, it's also...
[00:52:09]  To say, hey, we should reassess what we blocked and why we blocked it, then maybe there's some regulation.
[00:52:13]  What specifically are you talking about?
[00:52:15]  Like certain things to be deregulated.
[00:52:17]  Like what?
[00:52:18]  So the M1A, for instance, right?
[00:52:20]  So I brought it to guns.
[00:52:21]  My point is just in general.
[00:52:23]  It's a specific example of where Democrats have regulated firearms in a way that makes literally no sense.
[00:52:29]  Okay, it makes no sense.
[00:52:30]  And what's the downside here?
[00:52:33]  Making people felons for owning something while allowing...
[00:52:36]  How many of those people have been made felons by owning a...
[00:52:39]  10,000?
[00:52:40]  I don't know more.
[00:52:41]  10,000 felons?
[00:52:42]  There are 10,000 felons in...
[00:52:45]  When was this in Maryland?
[00:52:46]  You mean convicted?
[00:52:47]  No, you said felon.
[00:52:48]  I'm just asking.
[00:52:49]  So, again, an example.
[00:52:52]  The pistol brace ruling, right?
[00:52:53]  So when the courts rule that pistol braces made a pistol, a short-barreled rifle...
[00:52:59]  I actually had to dismantle a bunch of my weapons and separate.
[00:53:03]  And there was no law passed.
[00:53:05]  There was no act of Congress.
[00:53:06]  This was ATF making an arbitrary decision that I was now committing felonies for simply having owned a legal product that I bought that was legal at the time.
[00:53:14]  And Congress never passed this law.
[00:53:16]  So now I risk prison over a nonsensical regulation.
[00:53:19]  You were talking about Democrats and overregulating, overregulating.
[00:53:23]  But you just said that this was not a law that was passed.
[00:53:26]  It was an assessment made by by the courts.
[00:53:29]  No, it wasn't by the courts.
[00:53:30]  It was the ATF, arbitrarily.
[00:53:31]  This is the Chevron ruling, that the agencies have a right to self-regulate and make their determinations.
[00:53:37]  So the ATF, this is partly why people on the right were celebrating this, because the ATF was arbitrarily deciding that it was now a crime without any act of Congress.
[00:53:46]  So we had to actually...
[00:53:48]  Okay, so aside from these instances where you don't like some of these gun regulations, what other regulations do you have a problem with?
[00:53:58]  I don't know.
[00:53:58]  I mean, there are certain things that I want to be regulated more than I think about in terms of deregulation.
[00:54:04]  The lead in the water pipes is the easiest example.
[00:54:07]  Well, lead is actually...
[00:54:09]  And why isn't it being enforced is the question, I suppose.
[00:54:11]  Well, it is being enforced.
[00:54:13]  What happened in Michigan was that you had a Republican governor...
[00:54:20]  Who wanted to basically disempower a city that was, frankly, a largely African-American city.
[00:54:36]  I think gambling should be regulated.
[00:54:38]  I am no fan of the deregulation.
[00:54:41]  But specifically, I get that you have some issue with some very marginal stuff, but what should not be regulated?
[00:54:50]  Like you said that you have a problem with what Democrats are doing in terms of regulation.
[00:54:56]  I'm curious as to what those are.
[00:54:57]  I think that's an overestimation.
[00:54:58]  I think that I said I would like to see regulations reassessed and then either...
[00:55:04]  But which ones?
[00:55:05]  What are you talking about?
[00:55:06]  I'm saying we should have a review of regulation in general.
[00:55:10]  So you think we should review every single regulation that exists?
[00:55:14]  I think they should have sunset clauses.
[00:55:16]  Why?
[00:55:18]  Well, because nothing's infinite.
[00:55:20]  Nothing's absolute.
[00:55:21]  You know, we might say, for instance, okay, I'll give you an example of regulation.
[00:55:25]  A lead's always going to be bad for people.
[00:55:27]  Yes.
[00:55:29]  So that one we wouldn't sunset, right?
[00:55:31]  Agreed.
[00:55:32]  Okay.
[00:55:33]  We're talking about if we apply a regulation to a specific body or something, a body of water perhaps, the body of water may change.
[00:55:42]  So to give you an example, like we have— Toxins in the water are always going to be toxic.
[00:55:47]  Which is why, like I said, I'm in favor of more regulation.
[00:55:51]  And that the deregulation thing is just a safeguard on we shouldn't be making sure that we're not—that we're reassessing periodically.
[00:55:58]  Why would you sunset, like, those, like, regulations on what is poisonous in water, for instance?
[00:56:05]  I wouldn't.
[00:56:06]  Oh, I'm sorry.
[00:56:08]  I thought you just said that.
[00:56:09]  That's what I said.
[00:56:09]  I think it's an overestimation of, I think you may overestimate what I'm trying to say, is that typically I think like phthalates, for instance, should be regulated.
[00:56:16]  I don't believe that there's a quote-unquote free market solution to keeping endocrine disruptors in our food.
[00:56:21]  It makes no sense.
[00:56:22]  No, I agree with that.
[00:56:22]  I don't think that's controversial.
[00:56:25]  But there are regulations on things like your vehicles, your engine standards, guns, for instance.
[00:56:30]  And I'm not saying I know specifically each and every regulation that should be deregulated.
[00:56:34]  I think it is prudent for society to say, hey, there's no market solution to stop people putting poison in our food.
[00:56:40]  Our food has become just trash.
[00:56:41]  But there is still a circumstance where it's, we do understand that not every government application is going to be permanent or will work permanently.
[00:56:51]  And I can put it a different way.
[00:56:53]  There may come a point where the regulation isn't strong enough.
[00:56:55]  And if we don't reassess what the law is.
[00:56:58]  Oh, I have no problem with strengthening regulations.
[00:57:01]  I just, when you say deregulate or we should have regulations sunset or anything like that.
[00:57:07]  I mean, it just depends on what it is.
[00:57:09]  What we're talking about here is there is a battle between people who would profit privately and socialize the costs.
[00:57:19]  In other words, put it on all of us.
[00:57:21]  So you want to sell...
[00:57:23]  Well, let's just go back to Flint.
[00:57:25]  You want to sell...
[00:57:26]  You want to privatize this water supply.
[00:57:29]  You want to give contracts to...
[00:57:31]  Because this is what the Republican governor there wanted to do.
[00:57:34]  And the costs associated...
[00:57:38]  In this instance, like, they wanted to save money by not necessarily treating the water or, you know, by, you know, delivering it in a way that will save them money.
[00:57:50]  The costs are socialized insofar as you've poisoned thousands of these children.
[00:57:57]  So I went to Flint and I actually ran tests on the water and it's crazy.
[00:58:02]  The macroeconomic issues at hand in Michigan And what ends up with, like, a Republican politician is that for a lot of the people that live in the area, they're not directly impacted by what's happening to these kids, right?
[00:58:16]  For people who live outside the area, they're going to see the news and they're going to say, like, how could this be possible?
[00:58:21]  And so what ends up happening is I – actually, it was a dude from Occupy who was working up in Detroit who was talking about the water crisis, and the problem started with population collapse, right?
[00:58:32]  When, like, so he explained to me like this, you have a fixed water system in Detroit and the surrounding cities.
[00:58:39]  Let's say, hypothetical numbers, 100 people live in an area, it's $10 per person per month to run that fixed water system.
[00:58:48]  So let's say 10 people, and it's $100 a month.
[00:58:52]  Let's make it simple.
[00:58:53]  If five of those people leave, the fixed water costs remain the same, and now it's $20 per person.
[00:59:00]  Oh yeah, no, I get that.
[00:59:02]  Who's paying for that?
[00:59:04]  The people who live there are paying the taxes to maintain it.
[00:59:07]  They're paying their water bills.
[00:59:09]  But because we have a private enterprise that is getting in between the deliverance of that water and the people, that their profit margins go down.
[00:59:19]  I mean, if you go and you look at, like, you know, activists there will also tell you this was like a big privatization scheme.
[00:59:26]  I mean, this is the biggest problem that we're dealing with, in my estimation, around this country, is The movements to privatize.
[00:59:35]  The idea that corporations can do something better than the government.

=== Why We Need Single Payer Health (15:38) ===

[00:59:40]  Look, all major enterprises have waste.
[00:59:43]  All major enterprises are, in some fashion, are going to be subjected to, you know, abuse and fraud.
[00:59:51]  Whether it's a private corporation or a government entity.
[00:59:56]  But, why do we have, for instance, like, why do we have health insurance companies?
[01:00:01]  We don't need them.
[01:00:03]  We don't need them.
[01:00:04]  We have already run a massive experiment for now 60 years on a single-payer health insurance program, and it's called Medicare.
[01:00:15]  And it's wildly successful to the extent that it's not.
[01:00:18]  It's only because people have been trying to chip away and privatize different parts of it.
[01:00:22]  But we're doing that already with a quarter of our country.
[01:00:24]  There's no reason why we shouldn't have single-payer health insurance for everybody.
[01:00:29]  We don't need insurance companies.
[01:00:31]  People talk about bureaucrats getting in between your doctor and your health.
[01:00:36]  Anybody out there who has dealt with, and I'm old, you know, like I'm much older than you are and everybody here.
[01:00:43]  The dealing with your health insurance, when you're younger, you don't use it as much.
[01:00:48]  Right.
[01:00:48]  Dealing with your health insurance, talk about bureaucrats getting involved in this.
[01:00:52]  It's a huge pain in the ass.
[01:00:53]  And Medicare is a much easier program.
[01:00:56]  You know what's really crazy is when I left Vice and I went to join Fusion, there was a week period where I was not employed and I got a kidney stone.
[01:01:05]  And holy crap, I had to go to the hospital.
[01:01:08]  And thankfully I never had one since.
[01:01:10]  They tried charging me, I think, what was it?
[01:01:11]  It was like, I think it was like, what, $16,000, $18,000 for a three-day stay.
[01:01:17]  And I was just like, what?
[01:01:20]  I laid in a bed, dude.
[01:01:22]  But here's the best part.
[01:01:23]  I said, hey, I just switched employment, so I don't have insurance.
[01:01:28]  And they went, oh, no worries.
[01:01:29]  And then they sent me a bill for like $39,000.
[01:01:31]  And I'm like, wait, hold on, hold on.
[01:01:33]  Where did that money go?
[01:01:35]  Why were you trying to charge me that money?
[01:01:37]  How does that make sense at all?
[01:01:39]  It literally doesn't.
[01:01:41]  The problem is that health insurance, there is no incentive for insurance companies to keep costs low because they basically get a percentage of what the expenses are.
[01:01:56]  The way that you contain costs is by having a single payer that can look at the data across the country and assess, is this a valid treatment or is that a valid treatment?
[01:02:09]  There's been all sorts of studies on this.
[01:02:15]  We could save this country a tremendous amount of money long term, but not just the country.
[01:02:20]  I'm saying as individuals, plus, on top of which, all the pain in the ass is associated with your health insurance.
[01:02:26]  This is one of the things, this brings up, again, we have an election in three days.
[01:02:33]  I think Donald Trump is garbage, frankly.
[01:02:37]  But the real concern I have about Donald Trump becoming president is that it's going to empower the Republican Party.
[01:02:45]  Mike Johnson the other day said he's going to cut the ACA. Now, aside from the fact that the Republicans tried to repeal the ACA like 50 times or whatever, I don't care about that.
[01:02:56]  They're lying, by the way.
[01:02:58]  They're lying because they have no ideas about this.
[01:03:02]  And to the extent that they're going to change anything, I mean, Trump did, you know, attempt to do on the margins to disable the ACA. There are three aspects of the ACA. And it was originally called the Patient Protection Affordable Care Act, PPACA. They dropped the PP thing, which I think was a real problem, because that's actually what this law did better than anything else.
[01:03:28]  It won and expanded Medicaid.
[01:03:31]  So you had millions of people, low income people who had the ability, not every doctor takes Medicaid, but to the extent that they could get a provider, millions of people who had health insurance for the first time.
[01:03:44]  The other thing it did is it supposed, it created these marketplaces.
[01:03:49]  This is sort of a right wing subsidized industry deal.
[01:03:51]  I think it's a useless you know it didn't lower the cost it bent the cost curve but it basically just slowed the rate of increase on insurance.
[01:04:01]  I think we can do a lot better with a single payer thing.
[01:04:03]  But the third thing it did which is also the most important for for us right here in this room is is the patient protection part prior to this.
[01:04:12]  You could be denied care because you had some type of pre existing condition.
[01:04:18]  Pre-existing condition.
[01:04:20]  Pregnancy.
[01:04:22]  Diabetes.
[01:04:23]  Diabetes.
[01:04:24]  I mean really just a whole list of things.
[01:04:27]  You could be denied care or you could be charged an exorbitant amount.
[01:04:32]  The other thing that could happen is that, like you say, all of a sudden you have kidney stones.
[01:04:39]  80% of the cost of health insurance in this country is borne by 20% of the people.
[01:04:43]  You don't know if you're going to be one out of five.
[01:04:47]  But if you are, it's going to end up costing you $18,000 or you're hit by a bus.
[01:04:52]  The insurance companies used to say...
[01:04:57]  You have an annual limit.
[01:04:58]  So, oh, you got hit by a bus.
[01:05:01]  You're in the hospital for two or three months.
[01:05:03]  I'm sorry, buddy, but you just ran out of your health insurance.
[01:05:07]  Or annually.
[01:05:08]  I mean, excuse me, lifetime.
[01:05:09]  So you get cancer.
[01:05:11]  Your treatment costs this amount.
[01:05:13]  Not only have you exhausted it for the year, you've done it.
[01:05:15]  But when Mike Johnson says he's going to cut the ACA, What they're talking about.
[01:05:22]  Not everybody needs this insurance.
[01:05:24]  Young people maybe feel like they don't need this health insurance.
[01:05:28]  When they do that, the only way for them to do that is to raise prices on everybody else.
[01:05:34]  And so the whole point of insurance is that I may not need it in my 20s in the way that I would need it in my 50s, but I'm going to be 50.
[01:05:46]  And so it smooths it out.
[01:05:48]  I think and that's the whole point.
[01:05:50]  That's why I really am you know again with my hesitation about Harris because of you know particularly in terms of Gaza which we can talk about in a moment if you want but There's the putting the Republicans in power They have gotten progressively worse on all of these issues over the past 20 years they There are two things, I think, that play a role with the ACA especially.
[01:06:13]  We had a Republican on IRL, and he just said – they came to me and told me not to vote in favor of it.
[01:06:19]  They said specifically it's a wedge issue we want to campaign on, so let's keep it around.
[01:06:23]  This is what I see with the bulk of politicians.
[01:06:27]  They're just pretending to support things, and then they dangling.
[01:06:30]  I mean, Obama said he wanted to codify Roe, and then he didn't, and it's been a talking point for a long time.
[01:06:35]  I mean, the thing that Obama expended all of his political capital on was the ACA, and I think they did want to codify Roe, but I don't think, frankly, I mean, I can tell you that in talking to people in that world, they never thought the Supreme Court would overturn it.
[01:06:52]  I definitely want to get into that, but I want to add one more thing, too, is what the Republicans and Democrats have both privately been saying is – and this is funny because I think one of the arguments against these major healthcare – I shouldn't say healthcare, but like insurance companies is the bloat and bureaucracy that is created in the system, which seems to solve nothing but actually cost us money.
[01:07:10]  And then you hear these politicians have actually said, you know, a large portion of our economy is these – These health insurance systems.
[01:07:17]  And so if we were to do away with it, you're going to lose all of these bureaucratic middle managers.
[01:07:23]  And I'm like, they're concerned about getting reelected if there is a perceived economic downturn from loss of jobs.
[01:07:30]  No, I mean...
[01:07:31]  None of that is an argument for or against health care.
[01:07:33]  No, I don't think that's the case.
[01:07:36]  Because, I mean, look, you're going to need people to administer this stuff.
[01:07:43]  I mean, a lot of people in the health care industry would still have jobs.
[01:07:48]  It's just that they would be...
[01:07:51]  Either the government would contract to them, as it's done to a certain extent now, to do this work.
[01:07:58]  It's just that we would not have shareholders who are, who, you know, where 10% of what's going on or 20% of what's going on is a function of shareholders.
[01:08:08]  Let me ask you a question, though.
[01:08:09]  So there was a story I think was out of Georgia where some young kid had a genetic disorder and there was a treatment.
[01:08:14]  But it's some kind of like rare genetic treatment that cost a million dollars to produce.
[01:08:18]  And the family had sued the state saying that the state should pay for this because it's part of a plan that they had with government benefits and whatnot.
[01:08:25]  And the state argued we can't pay a million dollars every time we have to do this treatment.
[01:08:31]  And so the challenge then becomes treatments for diseases go so far as technology can allow.
[01:08:37]  I'm sure there's grant programs and ways we can develop technology, but what do we do if we do, say, like single-payer healthcare and there's 10 people who have a rare genetic disorder that's killing them, but one treatment available?
[01:08:48]  How do we assess?
[01:08:50]  Is it like a triage system?
[01:08:51]  How do we distribute that?
[01:08:53]  Or how is it distributed now?
[01:08:55]  Rich people.
[01:08:56]  Well, okay.
[01:08:57]  I mean, I'm not saying that sickness is going to go away with a single-payer health care program, but the bottom line is that fundamentally more people will have better coverage and ultimately more money in their pockets,
[01:09:17]  despite the fact that we'll have to tax more for it But over the course of their lifetime, will have more money in their pockets and will not have the insecurity that comes with losing their job, wondering whether or not, like you say, in between jobs, they will not have the headaches of like, oh, my insurance company has dropped me this year, or I've got new programs, or I have new things.
[01:09:39]  I mean, that's...
[01:09:40]  You will find, after your kid is born, that half of your time is spent on all of this bureaucracy in the private healthcare industry.
[01:09:50]  What if instead of taxing more, we just reallocated existing taxes?
[01:09:54]  Theoretically, lowering it in some areas.
[01:09:57]  We what?
[01:09:57]  Reallocate existing taxes.
[01:09:59]  Because people pay a lot already, right?
[01:10:01]  Do they though?
[01:10:02]  I don't think so.
[01:10:03]  I mean, if you look at taxation relative to like the 1950s, do you know what the top marginal tax rate was?
[01:10:10]  98%?
[01:10:11]  In 1950.
[01:10:12]  All they did was pull loopholes and other BS to avoid it.
[01:10:14]  No, actually that's not true.
[01:10:16]  No, it isn't.
[01:10:18]  If you, you can actually, I can tell you right now, in your comments, some of your libertarians are- Let me explain something real quick.
[01:10:26]  If the government came and told me they were taxing me at 100%, I wouldn't pay any of those taxes.
[01:10:30]  It's never going to happen.
[01:10:31]  If the government is taxing you 100%, you will not work.
[01:10:34]  You will not pay for those taxes and you will not get it.
[01:10:36]  I will work.
[01:10:37]  I will make money.
[01:10:38]  And so the issue is...
[01:10:39]  You will commit crime.
[01:10:40]  No, no.
[01:10:41]  Donald Trump brought this up in 2016 when he was like, we utilize the system as it exists to avoid paying through the mechanisms.
[01:10:48]  For example...
[01:10:50]  In the 1950s and 60s.
[01:10:51]  I get it.
[01:10:52]  There's a million dollar deduction for equipment, for instance.
[01:10:54]  So value earned can be retained outside of the U.S. dollar without paying taxes on it.
[01:10:58]  This is what a lot of people do.
[01:10:59]  So they can tax as high as they want, but wealthy people will always get around it and poor people can't.
[01:11:05]  In the 50s and 60s, the highest marginal tax rate, over $470,000 if you earned, which would be equivalent to about $3 million a day.
[01:11:14]  Every dollar over that...
[01:11:16]  Was taxed at a 90% rate.
[01:11:18]  We had the greatest economic expansion this country has seen during that time period.
[01:11:24]  Now, part of it obviously has to do with post-World War II. There's a lot of factors, but the tax rate did not inhibit any of that growth.
[01:11:33]  The effective tax rate was 50%.
[01:11:43]  So that includes all the deductions, all the hijinks that's associated with that, the loopholes and whatnot.
[01:11:50]  50%.
[01:11:51]  For those high-earning...
[01:11:56]  I don't need to raise taxes on people who are making...
[01:11:59]  We don't need to argue this because I don't think there's any point of contention.
[01:12:02]  I'm saying that if you go to people and say, we want to give you health care, but it's going to raise your taxes, they're going to recoil in horror.
[01:12:08]  Whether it's good for them or bad for them.
[01:12:10]  I think Bernie Sanders was on the way of making that argument.
[01:12:14]  But if you and I advocate for single-payer health care and we get other people to advocate for single-payer health care, we can do this.
[01:12:23]  Are we on board?
[01:12:24]  Do I have your pledge right now to support a single-payer health care system?
[01:12:29]  Depends on the structure of the single-payer health care system.
[01:12:32]  In principle?
[01:12:34]  I would like to see a private option and a public option.
[01:12:37]  I think it's fine if we have what I call universal basic health care.
[01:12:41]  I don't think you need to outlaw private healthcare, but would you agree that we need to make sure that if your license to practice medicine is a function of having, let's say, 90% of your clients accept 90% of your payments from Medicare?
[01:13:01]  I don't know if I'm smart enough to answer that question.
[01:13:04]  Then just trust me.
[01:13:06]  What I can say is it makes no sense that a kid gets the flu and dies in this day and age.
[01:13:12]  It makes no sense that a kid will break his leg and then the hospital says, sorry, you don't have the right coverage for this.
[01:13:18]  These are basic things that first-year medical students could help treat, and we have ample Tamiflu and things like this.
[01:13:25]  So those stories piss me off, especially insulin, for instance.
[01:13:28]  People who are diabetic, there was one story where a guy...
[01:13:30]  You know who capped insulin, don't you?
[01:13:33]  There was a guy who was diabetic, and he had to choose between rent or insulin.
[01:13:40]  I don't think it's just a guy.
[01:13:42]  There's a lot of people.
[01:13:44]  To me, it's silly and makes no sense.
[01:13:46]  But my point was simply...
[01:13:48]  As a way to segue to American foreign policy and our gross spending on wars that don't provide for the American people, if we start by saying, hey, look, we don't need to raise our taxes.
[01:13:59]  We just don't need to build as many tanks.
[01:14:01]  Instead of building tanks, we're going to build, I don't know, factories for insulin and hospitals and hire medical workers.
[01:14:06]  I don't believe...
[01:14:08]  I mean, frankly...
[01:14:10]  We don't need taxes to spend money.
[01:14:13]  We have shown that.
[01:14:15]  Okay?
[01:14:15]  I mean, we...
[01:14:16]  Well, yeah, we don't.
[01:14:17]  It's right.
[01:14:18]  We don't.
[01:14:18]  Taxes are basically just...
[01:14:19]  We don't.
[01:14:19]  We're a sovereign...
[01:14:20]  I mean, you know, this is somewhat unique to the United States because we have such control over our currency and it is essentially the world's currency.
[01:14:29]  Not for long.
[01:14:30]  Well, I mean, you know, people have been saying that for decades.
[01:14:33]  We'll see about that.
[01:14:34]  But Saudis dropped the petrodollar.
[01:14:35]  I understand.
[01:14:36]  But the bottom line is that the reason why we would have taxes in the way that I suggest is to essentially make it illegal to have this type of wealth disparity in our society.
[01:14:53]  I'm okay with some wealth disparity.
[01:14:55]  That's fine.
[01:14:56]  But the bottom line is we have such enormous wealth disparity.

=== Reinvesting Capital Gains (04:48) ===

[01:15:00]  The Fed came out with a report a couple of weeks ago.
[01:15:02]  The reason why the economic numbers look so good, and they do, our economic numbers look good relative to the way that we have measured the economy over years.
[01:15:15]  But the reason why they look so good is because of the tremendous wealth disparity we have in this country where very rich people are driving consumer spending.
[01:15:26]  So taxation for me is a mechanism in which to inhibit wealth disparity.
[01:15:34]  So 50-50, yes, I agree.
[01:15:37]  And then there's other contextual components to it.
[01:15:39]  When the tax rate goes up, for instance, like I mentioned, there's a million dollar per year tax deduction for equipment for a company.
[01:15:46]  Well, all that means is if there's a guy who runs a business and he makes a million dollars profit and you're telling him once the year rolls over, he's got to give 40 percent or whatever that number is to the government.
[01:15:56]  He's going to go buy a million dollars worth of motorcycles for the business.
[01:16:01]  And then that, you know, there's depreciation.
[01:16:03]  But then he just says if it if it applies to the business.
[01:16:06]  Now, what that does do is.
[01:16:09]  OK, I mean, if he if people who make the motorcycles are getting jobs.
[01:16:12]  Yeah, exactly.
[01:16:13]  I have no problem with taxation also causing wealthy people to stop hoarding money.
[01:16:18]  They're hoarding money.
[01:16:19]  That's my point.
[01:16:20]  A lot of people think, oh, if you tax these businesses, they're not going to hire them.
[01:16:23]  I'm like, no, it's the other way around.
[01:16:24]  If you tell a company that they're going to lose a million dollars at the end of the year, they're going to spend it on something to retain the value of the money they earned.
[01:16:32]  So rich people end up saying...
[01:16:34]  They're going to reinvest it in their business.
[01:16:36]  Yes, or create new businesses.
[01:16:38]  I do not see a reality where that makes sense, where someone's like...
[01:16:42]  You don't think it makes sense to create new businesses?
[01:16:45]  No, I'm saying there's no reality where a rich person says, I'm going to keep a million dollars in the bank and then give half to the government.
[01:16:49]  They're going to say, I'm going to buy a million dollars worth of stuff so I can retain the value that I've earned.
[01:16:53]  The tax doesn't matter.
[01:16:55]  He's going to reinvest it in some way that allows him to retain the value without giving it to the government.
[01:17:00]  I mean, I don't mind taxation that gets rich people to reinvest in capital expenditures, but we have millionaires and billionaires who are sitting on money and just dumping it into the stock market.
[01:17:18]  So if you're suggesting to me that capital gains should be, capital gains tax should be raised to where it is with wages, we are in agreement.
[01:17:27]  The challenge with the stock market is 401ks.
[01:17:31]  It's all bundled together.
[01:17:33]  So you've got wealthy investors who are just creating these massive portfolios where they're extracting value from systems that provide nothing, and then you have retirees.
[01:17:41]  So this is where it's coupled, I guess.
[01:17:44]  That's a challenge in I mean, there's been an attempt by Wall Street to get more people in that boat, but we still have like 80% of the stocks are owned by like, I don't know, 10, 20% of the people.
[01:17:57]  I mean, it's completely unbalanced.
[01:18:00]  I agree with that.
[01:18:04]  Join me in calling for a much higher marginal tax right at the high end and capital gains and wage taxes being the same.
[01:18:12]  And we could talk about Social Security.
[01:18:14]  I know you want to get to foreign policy.
[01:18:16]  So I've been a fan of...
[01:18:17]  So I think one of the challenges...
[01:18:18]  What's the top tax rates?
[01:18:20]  $250,000 above?
[01:18:21]  $250,000 and more?
[01:18:22]  I think they changed it a couple years ago or something.
[01:18:24]  They might have increased it.
[01:18:25]  But you had a long time ago...
[01:18:27]  $250,000 is a lot of money, you know, if we go back 50 or whatever years, and they're like, okay, so after 250-year tax at a higher rate, I've been for a long time in favor of, we've got to create more scales in the progressive tax rate.
[01:18:40]  Look, like I said, in 1950s and 60s, $470,000, 90% tax rate for every dollar made over that.
[01:18:50]  That's the way that marginal taxes work.
[01:18:53]  But that number would be $3 million today.
[01:18:55]  So I would be OK with doing $3 million.
[01:18:58]  So on paper, I say this, right?
[01:18:59]  And then, of course, people are going to say, oh, why is Tim now saying we should have a higher?
[01:19:02]  The problem then is when you run to the other wall of foreign policy.
[01:19:06]  What is what is the utilization of taxes for?
[01:19:09]  The first thing you understand is the way the U.S. government uses money.
[01:19:13]  People think that you get taxed and the government spends the money.
[01:19:15]  It's not how it works.
[01:19:16]  The government will will issue debts or whatever or agree to make payments, tax you and then later cover those.
[01:19:21]  Or there's fractional reserve monetary creation where they literally just create the debt upon the money upon the issuance of debt.
[01:19:29]  So taxation does correlate directly with government spending, but it's not one-to-one.

=== U.S. Pipeline Plans in Syria (03:36) ===

[01:19:33]  The issue I take is, I don't know, all of the money we're spending on foreign policy for the purpose of propping up the petrodollar.
[01:19:40]  And I understand the arguments.
[01:19:42]  So you're talking about the $260 billion we've given Israel over 30 years?
[01:19:47]  Absolutely.
[01:19:48]  And Ukraine over the past two years.
[01:19:50]  For what the argument, it's the neolib neocon or whatever you want to call it, of maintaining support for the petrodollar, which allows us, like you were mentioning, with control of this currency, we can spend in ways other other other countries can't.
[01:20:03]  As long as we maintain the petrodollar, we do not need to maintain exports at the same rate of spending like other countries do, because.
[01:20:11]  World police, I guess.
[01:20:13]  And so what ends up happening is with, for instance, what we're seeing with Ukraine is all correlating with the Qatar Turkey pipeline trying to offset the gas prime gas monopoly in Europe.
[01:20:23]  Effectively, the simple answer is maintain petrodollar against adversaries of the petrodollar.
[01:20:28]  Do you think that, and I want to turn to your opinion on Israel, but do you think that the United States wanted Russia to invade Ukraine?
[01:20:40]  No.
[01:20:41]  Absolutely not.
[01:20:43]  So you're familiar with the Qatar-Turkey pipeline?
[01:20:46]  Not particularly.
[01:20:47]  I harp on it quite a bit.
[01:20:49]  It's a limited component of the ongoing conflict from the Middle East into Europe.
[01:20:54]  But in 2009, I think it was, the United States was trying to build a pipeline from Qatar through Syria, Turkey into Europe, which would help offset the Gazprom monopoly.
[01:21:04]  Gazprom controls about 20%.
[01:21:06]  Syria said no.
[01:21:07]  Syria said, quite literally, and this is a quote, or I'm paraphrasing their quote, our ally Russia would never allow us to allow this to go through our country.
[01:21:16]  Lucky for the United States that a civil war just happened to occur, and Bashar al-Assad was the enemy of the United States who was gassing his own people.
[01:21:23]  Were you in support of Obama not wanting to get involved in that?
[01:21:29]  I don't know enough specifically, but what I would say is we should not have been involved in Syria.
[01:21:34]  Correct.
[01:21:34]  We the United States interest is for a lot of the spending we do is to prop up the petrodollar militaristically or otherwise.
[01:21:44]  And we were trying to compete with Russia, a natural gas.
[01:21:47]  This is why we wanted a foothold in Ukraine after the Qatar Turkey pipeline fails.
[01:21:54]  What ends up happening is Russia, Iran and Turkey started cutting a deal with to run a pipeline from the same gas field.
[01:22:01]  See what was also problematic about Trump getting out of the Iran nuke deal unilaterally in that respect, right?
[01:22:08]  Because we have now pushed Iran further away into that sphere of influence.
[01:22:15]  As it pertains to the gas trade-offs and the conflicts in Europe, I don't know.
[01:22:20]  I wouldn't know enough.
[01:22:21]  I can say that even during Obama, Stuxnet was probably a really bad idea.
[01:22:25]  Are you familiar with Stuxnet?
[01:22:26]  Yeah, that was Israel.
[01:22:27]  Israel and the United States teamed up to create a virus that blew up centrifuges in Iran, which act of war much.
[01:22:32]  I'm surprised it didn't escalate in a dangerous way.
[01:22:34]  I mean, but fortunately, one of the best things that Obama did was to make that nuke deal.
[01:22:40]  We've all seen the headlines in the news of how somebody lost their life in an act of cold-blooded murder.
[01:22:44]  And it grabs your attention.
[01:22:46]  But have you ever stopped to think about the life of the person at the center of the news story?
[01:22:51]  These victims were way more than a salacious headline.

=== Licensed Deals Discussed (14:43) ===

[01:22:54]  I'm Eric Carter-Londine, and my podcast, The Murder in My Family, dives into some of those stories to help listeners get to know the person who was lost, and how their death affected those closest to them.
[01:23:06]  Listen to The Murder in My Family everywhere you listen to podcasts.
[01:23:10]  Let me ask you this, since you bring up Russia.
[01:23:13]  Yeah.
[01:23:13]  Do you feel like you have to put some type of disclaimer because of the whole Tenet thing, or no?
[01:23:20]  No.
[01:23:22]  I never received money from Russia.
[01:23:24]  We never were given any money to create anything.
[01:23:27]  Tenant Media and- It was all laundered through Tenant Media.
[01:23:30]  I mean, obviously, you weren't getting paid in rubles.
[01:23:34]  So I can try and- Right.
[01:23:36]  I'll keep it real simple.
[01:23:37]  You have sponsors on your show?
[01:23:38]  Did you ever ask who their investors are?
[01:23:41]  Did you have- The sponsors?
[01:23:42]  Yeah, like a company comes to you and says, we want to have you shout us out or something.
[01:23:46]  Do you look into their financiers?
[01:23:48]  Do you dig through their bank accounts?
[01:23:50]  I mean, we get it all from media brokers, but they weren't advertising on your show.
[01:23:55]  They were paying you a license deal.
[01:23:58]  A license fee.
[01:23:59]  Yeah.
[01:23:59]  So I licensed to Netgeo.
[01:24:00]  I never asked them who their investors were.
[01:24:03]  Who, National Geographic?
[01:24:05]  Yeah.
[01:24:06]  When I license through, like, all these other big distributors, someone comes to me, they say, we want a license, it goes to our lawyer, our lawyer comes back, says, here's the agreed upon fee, I say, thank you, and have a nice day, and then we move on.
[01:24:16]  So was it just Ruben who asked who, Gerard Depardieu, or whatever that guy's name was?
[01:24:23]  I don't know what Dave did or anybody else did.
[01:24:26]  Did you ask about who that guy was?
[01:24:28]  Absolutely, and you know what's crazy is- Wait a second, why did you ask about who that guy was?
[01:24:33]  Wanted to know?
[01:24:34]  Isn't that due diligence?
[01:24:35]  Yeah, but you just said you don't ask who the investors are.
[01:24:38]  No, I said do you.
[01:24:39]  Like, do you dig into all of these things?
[01:24:41]  I've never actually been approached with anything even remotely like that.
[01:24:45]  So when I got reached out to, like, by Discovery and Netgeo, I said, I'm familiar with what this is.
[01:24:50]  Oh, yeah.
[01:24:51]  No, if a – I mean, I licensed my show to Peacock.
[01:24:56]  Right.
[01:24:56]  You know what they are.
[01:24:57]  Well, yeah.
[01:24:58]  I mean, National Geographic is a well-known thing.
[01:25:01]  But if somebody comes in and says, like, we're going to give you that kind of money – For your programming, I'd be like...
[01:25:07]  How much money do you make on Majority Report?
[01:25:08]  What the fuck is that?
[01:25:09]  How much money do you make on Majority Report?
[01:25:11]  How much do I make on our revenue from the whole show?
[01:25:15]  All of it 100%.
[01:25:16]  I mean, it's six...
[01:25:19]  Six figures a month?
[01:25:20]  Six figures in revenue, yeah.
[01:25:21]  Per month?
[01:25:22]  Yeah.
[01:25:23]  So why were you- Six figures.
[01:25:25]  Yeah.
[01:25:25]  So you're over 100k per month on Majority Report?
[01:25:28]  I think, well, I mean, some months.
[01:25:31]  I mean, certainly the past couple of months have been really good.
[01:25:34]  Some months are a little bit less.
[01:25:36]  I think you do Majority- I don't know about your other channels, but you do about 20 million per month in views.
[01:25:40]  Other channels?
[01:25:40]  Like, I don't know if you have other shows, I'm saying.
[01:25:42]  No, no.
[01:25:42]  Majority Report does about 20 million.
[01:25:44]  That's it.
[01:25:44]  And with 20 million views per month, you do over six figures.
[01:25:49]  We had 20 million views over for two months this year.
[01:25:55]  20 million views per month, I think, is your YouTube metric.
[01:25:59]  Well, I mean, it's a little bit less now, but okay.
[01:26:02]  Oh, yeah, yeah.
[01:26:02]  If a company came to you and wanted to license the show, which would...
[01:26:06]  I can tell you Peacock licensed a majority report.
[01:26:10]  We were on Peacock for a year.
[01:26:12]  Do you want to say what they gave you?
[01:26:13]  I will tell you this.
[01:26:15]  From what I read, you made more in a month than we made in a year.
[01:26:19]  Maybe that's just bad business on your part, I guess.
[01:26:21]  Maybe.
[01:26:22]  Or maybe it turns out that they were just a company who had metrics as opposed to, like, were trying to get propaganda.
[01:26:30]  No, I think...
[01:26:31]  See, I have a feeling about this.
[01:26:32]  I can tell you how much money we make at this company, right?
[01:26:35]  I would imagine it's millions.
[01:26:37]  Million per month, maybe.
[01:26:38]  Okay.
[01:26:39]  So when a company comes to me and says, we want to have you, who makes, as a company, a million dollars a month, a show in which we will have a non-exclusive distribution, but takes the branding, then we're going to say, in one or two years, how much do we make on this show per month?
[01:26:54]  Well, it's in excess of 400,000.
[01:26:57]  This was a new show.
[01:26:57]  This was this show, right?
[01:26:59]  So there's a few caveats.
[01:27:01]  This channel is my first channel.
[01:27:03]  It's got 1.35 million subscribers.
[01:27:05]  It used to be my biggest channel where I would routinely get half a million to a million per video or maybe like 600,000 per video on certain shows.
[01:27:15]  And then we're talking about doing a show like this, where you'll get, you know, you have a million, a million five subscribers, I've got a million plus subscribers, or with the other channels, it's big.
[01:27:24]  Big names coming, doing these debates, tends to attract a lot of sponsorship.
[01:27:28]  Have you had any other deals like this?
[01:27:31]  Yes.
[01:27:32]  Oh, you have had other deals like this?
[01:27:35]  Because I seem to remember you saying to Emma that it was just all from members or you didn't have any backers.
[01:27:45]  Sponsors.
[01:27:45]  There's no backers, right?
[01:27:48]  A license deal is not a sponsorship.
[01:27:51]  I mean, I have sponsors.
[01:27:52]  It's a sales.
[01:27:53]  Well, it's different.
[01:27:55]  No one has come to this company.
[01:27:57]  Let's clarify.
[01:27:58]  Hello Tushy comes and says we want to sell bidets.
[01:28:01]  Here's the difference.
[01:28:01]  I have an ad, but I don't have a license.
[01:28:02]  No one has come to my companies, plural, and said I will give you X in exchange for X in terms of the production of content or a stake in the company.
[01:28:12]  We have no investors.
[01:28:13]  We have no backing.
[01:28:15]  We have sales.
[01:28:16]  Have you had other license deals like that?
[01:28:18]  I'm not talking about a sponsor.
[01:28:21]  Tenant Media was not a sponsor.
[01:28:22]  It was a non-exclusive distribution license.
[01:28:25]  Yeah, it was a license deal.
[01:28:26]  Have you had other license deals like that?
[01:28:30]  Yes.
[01:28:30]  And so this is not...
[01:28:32]  With who?
[01:28:33]  I'm just curious.
[01:28:34]  Well, I've got to wait because some of these deals are still in contract negotiations, so I can't...
[01:28:38]  Oh, so you didn't have any prior to the tenant?
[01:28:40]  Or you did?
[01:28:41]  I have licensed content to big networks.
[01:28:43]  We have explicitly, and on a low scale...
[01:28:47]  So prior to this, you had licensed it to other big networks?
[01:28:51]  I'm confused.
[01:28:52]  I have licensed my content to other big networks.
[01:28:55]  Prior to the Tenet?
[01:28:56]  Yes.
[01:28:57]  What were those networks?
[01:28:59]  So like Netgeo and Discovery when they hired me for content?
[01:29:02]  No, no, I'm talking about these shows.
[01:29:04]  I'm not talking about when you were, you know, I'm talking about, you know, the whole Timcast world.
[01:29:09]  Before Tenet, there were three negotiations currently taking place.
[01:29:13]  And I can't say too much because I can't violate other contracts.
[01:29:18]  Offers were made You're not supposed to tell who you're licensing to?
[01:29:23]  When you're in contract negotiations, first, you don't go out and just say, hey, guess what?
[01:29:29]  This company's offering me right now.
[01:29:30]  No, of course not.
[01:29:31]  Of course not.
[01:29:32]  I'm not asking what you're in negotiations for for the future.
[01:29:36]  I'm saying prior to Tenant Media, had you had any other license deals?
[01:29:42]  License deals presented that were comparable and one was chosen.
[01:29:46]  And some are ongoing.
[01:29:47]  So you never had any other deals.
[01:29:49]  People had proposed them to you, but you'd never signed a deal.
[01:29:52]  With higher rates.
[01:29:53]  We're offered more money from other companies.
[01:29:55]  And you went with Tenet?
[01:29:56]  Yes.
[01:29:57]  For a license deal?
[01:29:58]  I was offered a license agreement for comparable.
[01:30:03]  I try to keep it vague, I guess.
[01:30:05]  So just to be clear, you never signed another deal before Tenet.
[01:30:09]  You had never had a license deal prior to that as Timcast.
[01:30:13]  No, no, no.
[01:30:14]  Okay, look.
[01:30:15]  Yes, I did.
[01:30:16]  I said it like five times now.
[01:30:18]  I've licensed content to a ton of networks.
[01:30:20]  Oh, I was just curious as to what networks those were.
[01:30:23]  I don't know why you're getting so upset.
[01:30:25]  Because I've said it five times.
[01:30:26]  You keep asking the same question over and over again.
[01:30:28]  You said Nat Geo.
[01:30:29]  So I've licensed content to like Discovery, Nat Geo, and then there's media buyers who do general...
[01:30:33]  But not as TimCast.
[01:30:34]  Yes, just quite literally as TimCast from this channel.
[01:30:36]  Oh, really?
[01:30:37]  To Nat Geo?
[01:30:38]  Okay.
[01:30:39]  Yes, and I've even appeared on their networks.
[01:30:42]  So I can say it a million times.
[01:30:45]  We were dealing with negotiations.
[01:30:49]  We give the deal to our lawyers.
[01:30:51]  Our lawyers come back and say, looks good.
[01:30:53]  And then we start, the show already existed.
[01:30:55]  No, I never thought that you were in the bag for, well, I mean, I never thought they were telling you what to do.
[01:31:06]  I just thought it was a lot of money to be getting, you know, and not asking who, you know, Gerard Depardieu was, or whatever the guy's name, Gregorian.
[01:31:17]  So the issue I think is worthy of clarification is like you yourself make six figures a month on your show.
[01:31:23]  Well, that's our revenue of the show.
[01:31:25]  I don't make that.
[01:31:27]  Right.
[01:31:27]  The revenue of this show and otherwise like a million dollars is going to my pocket every month, but we have staff and we have employees.
[01:31:33]  And so it's around there.
[01:31:35]  So when a company comes and we had several and they say, this is huge, we had a $30 million offer.
[01:31:41]  Are you back in negotiations with those people?
[01:31:43]  Yes.
[01:31:43]  I would imagine.
[01:31:44]  Especially considering...
[01:31:45]  It feels like you've had to...
[01:31:46]  Like, what was this whole thing?
[01:31:47]  Were you shutting down the show?
[01:31:49]  That's exactly what I was going to say, right?
[01:31:50]  Like, I can't be the CEO, the principal talent, and a dad.
[01:31:57]  It's already difficult to do.
[01:32:00]  So maybe I'm not such a bad businessman.
[01:32:02]  Maybe you're a good dad.
[01:32:03]  I got two kids and...
[01:32:05]  But whatever.
[01:32:06]  So, like, I've got to record four shows today.
[01:32:10]  And that's an impossibility with a kid.
[01:32:13]  So that's why, you know, like last week, I'm like, I can keep doing the morning show because that will keep me occupied.
[01:32:19]  You shut down your news operation too, didn't you?
[01:32:23]  Scanner is still in operation, but it's like...
[01:32:27]  Didn't you have like a news, like a website or something?
[01:32:30]  Yeah, we still do.
[01:32:31]  We still do.
[01:32:32]  And so there was, we did Timcast News for a while.
[01:32:36]  And then we had another company called Scanner that we are trying to get off the ground and it's still there, but we're in a holding pattern.
[01:32:44]  Content is still being produced for Scanner, but we have to figure out, like, here's the reality, man.
[01:32:50]  News articles, the news media is a very, very difficult thing to monetize.
[01:32:54]  Very tough.
[01:32:59]  figuring out how to make that sustainable is incredibly difficult.
[01:33:01]  And it gets to that point where, you know, we can't, but I will say in regards to what happened Monday last week.
[01:33:07]  Oh yeah.
[01:33:08]  The, so one of the offers we got was $30 million and it comes with caveats.
[01:33:13]  And so we go to these other companies and say, what are your terms?
[01:33:16]  What are your offers?
[01:33:17]  What are your terms?
[01:33:17]  What are your offers?
[01:33:18]  And then ultimately Tenet was, we were like, we'll go with them.
[01:33:22]  That's just whatever.
[01:33:23]  We go to our lawyer.
[01:33:24]  Our lawyer goes through it.
[01:33:25]  We say, all right.
[01:33:25]  So Tenet didn't pay $30 million.
[01:33:28]  No.
[01:33:28]  No.
[01:33:30]  Sounds like they paid a hefty amount.
[01:33:33]  I mean, if you're Dave Rubin, what do you think about that?
[01:33:36]  Like, I mean, if you're Dave Rubin and somebody says, we're going to give you $100,000 a video, doesn't that, like, make you go, like, what's up with this?
[01:33:44]  No, because what's interesting in the indictment is you can see that independent of each other, several people made the same negotiations.
[01:33:50]  A lot of this goes through agents, and agents...
[01:33:53]  Go to a market standard rate when you're negotiating.
[01:33:54]  I mean, I understand.
[01:33:55]  I mean, I've dealt with agents.
[01:33:58]  But you don't set your price.
[01:33:59]  I mean, your agent's going to tell you what you're going to be able to get from something, right?
[01:34:03]  Or do you go to your agent?
[01:34:05]  You could go to your agent and say, I'll only do the job for this amount.
[01:34:07]  I get it.
[01:34:08]  But usually, it's going to be like, look, this is the kind of job that's going to pay a range of here.
[01:34:12]  The company's got this much.
[01:34:13]  Here's what you're going to be able to get for it.
[01:34:14]  So, for instance, like 500,000 views might be $10,000 in ads, right?
[01:34:20]  Okay.
[01:34:21]  That's market standard.
[01:34:22]  So if you're talking CPM and I call like an ad sales guy and they say, hey, this company wants to sponsor you.
[01:34:29]  You get $500,000 on the show.
[01:34:31]  They're going to give you $10,000.
[01:34:32]  I can say, right, that's the market range.
[01:34:36]  And so then I might try and argue a premium and be like, well, I'm Tim Pool, so I think you should give me $15,000.
[01:34:40]  And then they'll come back and say no.
[01:34:41]  We're not talking about sponsorships.
[01:34:44]  value of a license agreement where a company would have the ability to run sponsorships on their end.
[01:34:49]  Right.
[01:34:49]  So if we're talking about, say, Timcast IRL in the morning show, which we do around a million in revenue per month, then a comparable show is going you're going to say this when you're licensing a show If we run the show by ourselves for a year or two, then here's how much we're going to generate in sponsorships, memberships, etc.
[01:35:07]  by the end of year 2, 3, 4, and 5.
[01:35:10]  If we do a licensed deal, we jump the gun.
[01:35:13]  We generate lesser revenue than we would in the long term, but it closes the gap sooner.
[01:35:18]  I get it.
[01:35:19]  I get it.
[01:35:19]  I understand why you would take it.
[01:35:21]  I would take that money if somebody came to me and offered that, but I would be like, wait, what's going on here?
[01:35:27]  But you would be – I mean we have three different companies coming at us.
[01:35:32]  They're all known American enterprises.
[01:35:34]  I mean I will say one thing too.
[01:35:36]  Like Lauren Chen has been – was working at The Blaze.
[01:35:39]  You know what I mean?
[01:35:40]  This is not like some strange person appeared out of nowhere.
[01:35:43]  Right?
[01:35:43]  Raises questions to me about...
[01:35:46]  I mean, I think, you know, it's quite clear to me that...
[01:35:51]  I mean, you know, there was reports about like in the run-up to the election, George Santos was on a Zoom call where people were getting paid at least $20,000 to...
[01:36:03]  Put out stuff that Kamala Harris was a slut on their social media and stuff like that.
[01:36:09]  And I'm like, I've been doing this for 20 years.
[01:36:12]  And, you know, it's not a huge amount of competition on the left.
[01:36:16]  And I've never, nobody's ever offered me five bucks to do anything like that.
[01:36:20]  Let me let you in on the secret.
[01:36:22]  This has been true for a long time.
[01:36:24]  So your revenue for a majority report, is it largely YouTube based or do you do like ad reads as well?
[01:36:29]  It's ad reads, it's members, it's YouTube.
[01:36:31]  You have YouTube programmatic, so do we.
[01:36:34]  Like, programmatic ads means, like, your YouTube channel will show you how much you made from YouTube's ads.
[01:36:37]  Yes.
[01:36:38]  So, Russia can go on your YouTube channel through Google Ads and put $10,000 a month into your channel without you knowing.
[01:36:46]  Okay.
[01:36:47]  And you'd have no way to track or control any of that.
[01:36:50]  So, this is...
[01:36:51]  You know, it's...
[01:36:52]  Okay.
[01:36:53]  I got a...
[01:36:54]  This does happen, though, where companies, politicians will use some kind of special interest and you can run an ad for any product you want, which is the crazy thing.
[01:37:04]  Well, yeah, this is what Trump is doing with his watches, right?
[01:37:07]  Like, I'm going to sell 147 watches at whatever it was, 10 grand a pop.
[01:37:13]  And it's basically a way for people to launder money to him because it's like, oh, I just bought a watch.
[01:37:20]  And that's basically it.
[01:37:22]  And so he knows you're allowed to buy watches.

=== Leveraging International Treaties (03:27) ===

[01:37:25]  I mean...
[01:37:26]  Maybe we should regulate politicians selling products during elections.
[01:37:29]  I think that would be a great idea.
[01:37:31]  And maybe while they're president as well.
[01:37:34]  I bought his shoes.
[01:37:35]  What's that?
[01:37:36]  I bought his shoes.
[01:37:37]  We were skating them.
[01:37:38]  Let's talk about abortion or something.
[01:37:40]  Or Israel.
[01:37:41]  We can talk about Israel if you want.
[01:37:43]  I mean, you know, I'm...
[01:37:47]  I'm of the mind of what we're doing is obscene and I'm unhappy about it and I feel like we have two options.
[01:37:57]  One is horrible and the other one's worse in terms of these governments.
[01:38:03]  Do you think we should cut off funding, pull out and just be done with it?
[01:38:07]  Well, I think that we should condition aid to Israel.
[01:38:11]  I mean, I think that we should, you know, if we have leverage in any type of situation, we should exercise that leverage.
[01:38:19]  In terms of Ukraine, you know, we had a treaty with them when they gave up nukes in 93, saying that we would protect them in the event of Russian aggression or an agreement.
[01:38:33]  Right.
[01:38:34]  The legal distinction matters, I suppose, because...
[01:38:36]  Well, I mean, it matters in terms of, like, how...
[01:38:40]  Bilateral security agreement.
[01:38:42]  I mean, that's...
[01:38:43]  You can refer to it as just a bilateral security agreement.
[01:38:50]  And I think that there's...
[01:38:52]  Oh, no, it wasn't even that.
[01:38:53]  The Budapest Memorandum.
[01:38:55]  I mean, I think that, you know, this was operational.
[01:38:58]  It's not obviously, you know, a treaty.
[01:39:01]  Treaties can be broken.
[01:39:02]  We saw that with, you know, Paris Accords.
[01:39:09]  Well, it's easier, obviously, if it's a treaty.
[01:39:11]  It needs to be, you know, we need to bring the Senate in.
[01:39:14]  But I... I am, you know, I think that that aid that we provide for Ukraine should have an exit strategy to it.
[01:39:26]  I haven't seen one, but I also am not convinced that that's been a function of the election.
[01:39:31]  Haven't we spent more on Ukraine in the past two years than we have on Israel in 50?
[01:39:35]  I don't know.
[01:39:36]  Or comparable?
[01:39:36]  Probably comparable, I think, at this point.
[01:39:38]  That's crazy to me.
[01:39:40]  It's fair to point out, too, like, we're not just giving all the money overseas.
[01:39:43]  We make weapons here, and then it has American jobs.
[01:39:46]  Yes, 100%.
[01:39:47]  There's no doubt in my mind that we spend far too much money.
[01:39:52]  So much of our economy is dependent.
[01:39:54]  You know, Eisenhower said, you know, beware the military-industrial complex, and his original wording was the congressional military-industrial complex.
[01:40:03]  And, you know, I subscribe to that.
[01:40:06]  I do think from a moral standpoint, although I don't think this is controlling, but as a moral standpoint, you know, obviously like one country is being invaded and to some extent occupied and the other is occupying obviously like one country is being invaded and to some extent occupied and the other is occupying and completely asymmetrical type of situation, you know, that
[01:40:34]  I, you know, I kind of feel like no matter what course we take, the dominoes have been knocked over.

=== Rising Tensions and War Fears (15:22) ===

[01:40:42]  The BRICS nations are lining up for their currency.
[01:40:44]  The petrodollar is on the verge of being dismantled.
[01:40:47]  Saudi Arabia has already said not interested.
[01:40:49]  I don't think Trump recovers that.
[01:40:51]  And I think that means Americans better buckle up for a bumpy ride.
[01:40:55]  I mean, to be fair, you've also said that we're headed towards a civil war in this country, so many, many times, and I don't think that's happening.
[01:41:02]  Well, that's not my opinion.
[01:41:04]  That's just the corporate press.
[01:41:06]  I think it was...
[01:41:08]  It's not your opinion that we're headed into a civil war or hasn't been?
[01:41:13]  It is not an original idea from Tim Pool that we're on track for a civil war.
[01:41:15]  Well, I mean, do either one of us have any original ideas?
[01:41:18]  I mean, I didn't come up with single-payer.
[01:41:22]  No, but just to clarify, my position is I didn't one day just decide for no reason, oh man, I think a civil war is coming.
[01:41:29]  It was like, here we go, Common Dreams.
[01:41:31]  This is a progressive organization.
[01:41:32]  Here you go.
[01:41:34]  The second civil war has already begun.
[01:41:37]  This is a progressive outlet, right?
[01:41:39]  So when I read progressives, conservatives, the Atlantic all— I think that's more metaphorical, but if you want to claim that you did not mean that there was an actual— No, no, I do.
[01:41:49]  Yeah, absolutely.
[01:41:50]  You do think there's going to be a civil war?
[01:41:52]  10 years, 20 years?
[01:41:53]  I mean, what?
[01:41:56]  Yes.
[01:41:57]  Okay.
[01:41:58]  So we can talk about it.
[01:42:00]  We can go in great detail.
[01:42:01]  For instance, we had a former CIA officer write for the Washington Post.
[01:42:05]  The U.S. is on the verge of a civil war.
[01:42:07]  I didn't just make it up.
[01:42:08]  The Atlantic said that they spoke with several national security experts.
[01:42:12]  Well, there's people also saying that the earth is flat.
[01:42:15]  Do they work for the Democratic establishment?
[01:42:18]  Well, sometimes, maybe.
[01:42:19]  There's flat earthers in the Democratic Party at the top level.
[01:42:22]  Come on.
[01:42:23]  I'm saying, like...
[01:42:23]  Like, former CIA comes out and says they're concerned, like, we are following the trend of other countries towards civil war.
[01:42:28]  I take that seriously.
[01:42:29]  I don't know why I would dismiss, like, all of these people.
[01:42:32]  A Princeton professor, for instance, said the same thing back in 2018, I think.
[01:42:36]  So, when you...
[01:42:38]  Maybe it's sensationalism.
[01:42:40]  I think, to a certain extent, it's like, you know, yes, there were people who said, like, crime has increased exponentially, but in fact, it hadn't.
[01:42:49]  I mean, I, you know, I think, you know, part of what you and I do is we make assessments as to what news is actually sort of like, um, uh, real and what really has real world implications for people.
[01:43:03]  And part of what we do is assess that like these things don't and it's a distraction.
[01:43:08]  I think you're, I think you're wrong.
[01:43:10]  I think there's an optimism and a normalcy bias.
[01:43:13]  And the only thing I can really say is, look, I read the news and I opine on it and I'm wrong about a lot.
[01:43:18]  But I can probably pull up, I don't know, a couple hundred articles from CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, talking about the brink of civil war that is coming to this country that I just did not make up one day.
[01:43:29]  So if I read the New York Times...
[01:43:32]  These are all right-wingers.
[01:43:33]  The New York Times?
[01:43:34]  Ross Dothau?
[01:43:35]  Oh, sure, sure.
[01:43:35]  It's an opinion piece.
[01:43:36]  Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course.
[01:43:37]  CNN, you've got Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware.
[01:43:41]  Straight Arrow News, I don't know, but there's a poll saying people think we're on the verge of a civil war.
[01:43:46]  The Princeton professor, progressive guy, said the Cold Civil War has already begun.
[01:43:50]  This is back in 2018.
[01:43:52]  And I look at all these things and I say the worldview of each faction in the United States is divided to a degree that There seems to be no reconciliation.
[01:44:04]  And so now what you have is city members of Congress calling for a national divorce, which means nothing.
[01:44:09]  It means civil war.
[01:44:10]  But that was Marjorie Taylor Greene.
[01:44:11]  I mean, I certainly...
[01:44:12]  She's a lunatic.
[01:44:13]  Well, call it whatever you want, but when a member of Congress is saying something like this, would you...
[01:44:19]  Oh, I have no doubt.
[01:44:20]  Listen, you don't have to convince me.
[01:44:21]  Do you think if lunatics get elected, we could see a civil war?
[01:44:23]  Yeah.
[01:44:23]  I have no doubt that, you know, we have a crop of right-wing Republican lawmakers who are completely nuts.
[01:44:34]  What about January 6th?
[01:44:37]  Do you think a January 6th type event could result in this country reaching civil war?
[01:44:44]  You mean, had they been successful?
[01:44:48]  Just to kind of depoliticize it, let's say January 6, 2025...
[01:44:54]  Politician X wins.
[01:44:56]  It could be whoever.
[01:44:56]  I don't know.
[01:44:57]  Let's say, for sake of your politics, let's say Trump loses.
[01:45:02]  And then Trump supporters storm the Capitol once again, this time taking the look.
[01:45:06]  Do you really think, wait a second, because this is really an important distinction.
[01:45:08]  Do you really think that the likelihood of a...
[01:45:15]  A mass of Democrats, Democratic voters, would go in and attack the Capitol in the way that we saw?
[01:45:27]  You mean like they did on May 29th, 2020?
[01:45:30]  You're talking about like BLM? When they firebombed the White House and forced the president to an emergency bunker and set fire to St.
[01:45:36]  John's Church, injuring hundreds of police officers?
[01:45:38]  No.
[01:45:39]  Oh, you're talking about the protests out there?
[01:45:40]  You mean after there was a peaceful protest before the cops moved in?
[01:45:44]  Regardless of why it happened.
[01:45:45]  Well, do I think the far left will firebomb the White House?
[01:45:48]  They did!
[01:45:48]  Four years ago.
[01:45:50]  Wait a second.
[01:45:51]  One was an assault on the Capitol.
[01:45:55]  The other is people...
[01:45:57]  Well, words have meaning.
[01:46:00]  They describe events.
[01:46:02]  When leftists injure 100 cops, tear down barricades, throw firebombs at the White House...
[01:46:09]  If, if Donald Trump was to send the military to attack, let's say, New York City, do I think that we would have a civil war?
[01:46:19]  Yes.
[01:46:20]  Do I think that New York City would- Do you think he could?
[01:46:23]  Do you think there's a possibility Trump would send the military into any one of these Democrat districts?
[01:46:27]  I mean, I don't know.
[01:46:29]  Well, I mean, he claims he would.
[01:46:30]  Do you think he would?
[01:46:31]  Or do you fear he would?
[01:46:32]  I fear that he would attempt to do it, but I suspect- Do you think he would try to start a civil war?
[01:46:37]  Well, I didn't say he would try and start a civil war, but I think he would- But that would start a civil war.
[01:46:41]  Well- Or could?
[01:46:42]  I think it could.
[01:46:44]  So do you think there's a possibility civil war is facing the sound?
[01:46:47]  No, no, no.
[01:46:47]  I don't think the military would allow for that, frankly.
[01:46:51]  National Guard?
[01:46:52]  Or do you think they would disobey Donald Trump?
[01:46:54]  I think you'd get a series of resignations.
[01:46:58]  It's possible, I guess, that at one point.
[01:47:00]  Someone eventually is going to say yes, right?
[01:47:02]  If your argument is that the rise of Donald Trump could bring about a civil war, I mean...
[01:47:09]  I don't know that I would say the rise of Donald Trump.
[01:47:11]  I think Trump's a symptom.
[01:47:12]  I think that the reason Trump gets elected is because you have this rage bubbling up in this country in a variety of ways.
[01:47:19]  So you had the Tea Party and you had Occupy Wall Street, which were rather light.
[01:47:22]  But then you get the Bernie Sanders movement, you get the Trump populist movement, but Trump is a bull and he storms through and he takes the power.
[01:47:29]  And he didn't.
[01:47:30]  But I mean, what's the...
[01:47:33]  You're saying this because they're both populist movements?
[01:47:35]  I mean, one's a right-wing authoritarian movement.
[01:47:38]  Call it whatever you want.
[01:47:39]  People rose up and had movements for whatever reason.
[01:47:42]  And perhaps you could say because Trump is a strong man, he ended up succeeding in his movement where Bernie's did not.
[01:47:47]  Well, I mean, no, Bernie Sanders was...
[01:47:50]  Like Hillary Clinton's the authoritarian, and she stomped out Bernie.
[01:47:53]  No, Hillary Clinton is not an authoritarian.
[01:47:55]  I mean, I don't like her politics, but authoritarian, it's a word, it means something.
[01:48:03]  And right-wing authoritarians, I mean, there's been, you know, check out Bob Altemeyer's research, formerly from the University of Manitoba.
[01:48:13]  Like, there's clinical research that shows that we have, like...
[01:48:17]  25% of North America are right-wing authoritarians, and they're looking for a leader in the Republican Party has been stoking racial animus for decades now, and this is where the culmination...
[01:48:34]  I mean, it certainly did 200 years ago, but I think that the likelihood of civil war is low relative to the amount of times that you talk about it.
[01:48:46]  Well, I think it would require you to see what I talked about.
[01:48:51]  Like, should I not opine on the Atlantic saying, quote, there's people that are absolutely ready to take on a civil war?
[01:48:57]  What will happen if Trump loses from one week ago?
[01:49:00]  I mean, if I address that and I say something like, I think it's silly to assume that within the next few months people are going to start a civil war, is that a bad thing to do?
[01:49:09]  Or should we just ignore it?
[01:49:10]  I mean, I think it's just indicative of what you consider the news is, and I think that's...
[01:49:20]  Why are they all writing about it?
[01:49:23]  Well, because they have the same problem that you did with your news outlet, is they can't get clicks.
[01:49:29]  Do you think the only reason all of these outlets...
[01:49:31]  I think I've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 that I just pulled up from a quick Google search.
[01:49:37]  It's just they're getting clicks for it?
[01:49:40]  I mean, literally, it's just sensationalism.
[01:49:43]  Yeah.
[01:49:43]  I mean, I think, like, you know, when you think about the original Civil War, there was a huge economic investment on the two different sides, right?
[01:49:53]  One side wanted free labor.
[01:49:56]  And the other side, aside from having other economic interests, too, that wasn't aligned with having free labor.
[01:50:05]  I don't think we have that same division here.
[01:50:08]  Do we need to follow 1861 or 54 for a civil war to happen?
[01:50:13]  Or is it possible to look at, say, the Bolsheviks, the Spanish Civil War, the French Revolution, the British Civil War?
[01:50:18]  I think it is unlikely in this country that we would have a civil war.
[01:50:22]  Do I think that we could have a constitutional crisis with someone like Donald Trump and the Republican Party?
[01:50:30]  Yes, I do.
[01:50:31]  So academics right now believe that we are in what's called civil strife.
[01:50:36]  Civil strife does not guarantee civil war, but it is the precursor to.
[01:50:40]  So the civil rights era was a period of civil strife that did not result in a civil war.
[01:50:44]  Bleeding Kansas was civil strife that did result in a civil war.
[01:50:47]  In the 80s, we had something like...
[01:50:51]  A hundred bombings?
[01:50:53]  Maybe 75 bombings?
[01:50:55]  That would...
[01:50:56]  I mean, you know, various...
[01:50:58]  Civil strife.
[01:50:59]  It comes and goes, you know what I mean?
[01:51:00]  So you've got Stephen Marsh, who wrote the book The Next Civil War.
[01:51:05]  He's a liberal guy.
[01:51:07]  He makes a lot of these predictions.
[01:51:09]  I defer to him.
[01:51:10]  I think he's wrong on a lot of his fact assessments in the granular scope of things, but he makes a lot of points that are correct.
[01:51:17]  So we actually had this debate, I think it was last week, actually, on civil war conflict and crisis.
[01:51:23]  And one of the things I have to bring up is...
[01:51:27]  People try and look at the 1861 Civil War as if we must follow that trend for Civil War to occur when, in fact, it's rare that you actually get Civil War.
[01:51:41]  What would you do to stop this Civil War?
[01:51:45]  Tell people not to do it, to go out and vote, to believe in the system, to vote for who you think is going to help bring accountability to this country, denounce and reject violence.
[01:51:54]  Do you think there's no difference in terms of the parties as to which one could bring about a civil war?
[01:52:01]  I think both parties hold the potential for it.
[01:52:04]  Do you think that Kamala Harris would, you know...
[01:52:08]  Takes two to tango.
[01:52:10]  Well, actually, it takes two to tango because a tango is a very intricate dance, but it doesn't take two people to start a war.
[01:52:16]  I mean...
[01:52:17]  It does?
[01:52:17]  No, it doesn't.
[01:52:19]  I mean...
[01:52:20]  What do you mean?
[01:52:21]  Well, it doesn't take two people to start a war.
[01:52:23]  So if country A invades country B, but country B just surrenders immediately, there's no war...
[01:52:29]  Well, obviously, people...
[01:52:32]  War is a fight.
[01:52:33]  Yeah.
[01:52:33]  It could be more than two, like Syria, for instance.
[01:52:36]  I think there was like 12 factions in the initial...
[01:52:39]  Well, Tango, both parties are engaged in the dance.
[01:52:45]  But the fact of the matter is that you can go in and, yes, you can invade its war, even if they surrender after people getting shot.
[01:52:53]  Do you think that Kamala Harris...
[01:52:57]  Let me put it this way.
[01:52:58]  Who's more likely to bring out the military against the city between Harris and Trump?
[01:53:05]  Trump didn't do it in 2020.
[01:53:06]  I don't know if I have a good answer.
[01:53:08]  You don't have an opinion on this?
[01:53:10]  I don't know if I have a good enough answer to say...
[01:53:13]  Well, I'll take whatever answer you...
[01:53:15]  I mean, you don't have an opinion.
[01:53:16]  Trump was presented with national riots.
[01:53:17]  He did not invoke the Insurrection Act.
[01:53:19]  He didn't send out the military.
[01:53:20]  I'm not confident he has the strength.
[01:53:23]  And I don't mean that in a positive way.
[01:53:24]  Who would be more inclined to do it?
[01:53:28]  I can't answer that.
[01:53:30]  I don't know.
[01:53:30]  You don't have an opinion on it.
[01:53:32]  I mean, I think it's bait to be like Trump's the authoritarian, therefore he would when he didn't do it.
[01:53:37]  So the Democrats didn't do it at the Capitol.
[01:53:42]  Trump didn't do it at the Capitol.
[01:53:43]  Trump didn't do it in 2020.
[01:53:45]  The National Guard was deployed by Democrats during the Ferguson riots.
[01:53:48]  Could I make the argument that Democrats are more likely for that reason?
[01:53:51]  I honestly have no idea.
[01:53:52]  Would you make that argument?
[01:53:53]  I wouldn't.
[01:53:53]  I'd say there's pros and cons to make a guess as to who you think would be more likely to bring out the National Guard or invoke the Insurrection Act.
[01:54:00]  Honestly, I don't know.
[01:54:02]  What I will say is, it doesn't matter what you think is true.
[01:54:06]  Mark Milley, apparently, and I don't know, Mark Milley is someone that you would trust, but he basically said that Trump told him to just shoot the riders.
[01:54:18]  I mean, Hillary Clinton said, we came, we saw he died.
[01:54:20]  Why don't you drone strike Julian Assange?
[01:54:23]  So Barack Obama killed Abdul Rahman Alamaki?
[01:54:25]  Wait, wait, wait.
[01:54:26]  No, no, no.
[01:54:26]  I agree that Obama, you know, those drone strikes were very problematic.
[01:54:33]  But that's different than saying we're going to willy-nilly fire into protest.
[01:54:38]  What I'm pointing out is that I'm not going to tell you your opinions are wrong and you should not have them.
[01:54:44]  That's not the point of what I'm getting at with civil war.
[01:54:47]  My point is you believe them and you are allowed to believe them.
[01:54:49]  And that's fine by me.
[01:54:51]  I'm just curious as to who you think.
[01:54:53]  If you think that there's going to be a civil war or that there's a big potential for it, you don't see there's no difference between Trump and Harris as to the likelihood of a civil war or who would start this war?
[01:55:08]  In 2020, Democrats held a war game, as reported by the Boston Globe.
[01:55:13]  Are you familiar with this?
[01:55:14]  Where Podesta and others, neocons, had come together.
[01:55:19]  In 2020.
[01:55:20]  Before the 2020 election, they held a war game, as reported by the New York Times and the Boston Globe, where they said, in the event Trump wins, we should advocate for West Coast states to secede from the Union.
[01:55:32]  In 2020?
[01:55:33]  Yes.
[01:55:35]  In 2020, before the election took place, a war game was held by prominent neoconservatives and Democrats, including John Podesta.
[01:55:42]  Oh, so you mean like a bunch of people who are out of government went into a room and were working on the campaign and said, what happens if Trump wins?

=== Trump Supporter Conspiracies (15:24) ===

[01:55:51]  And one of the proposals was Washington, Oregon and California must secede from the union unless Trump's government capitulates to our demands.
[01:55:59]  And that was just the most insane thing I'd ever heard.
[01:56:01]  They're not just going through a bunch of different—people out of government are just going around.
[01:56:05]  So you're arguing— You say out of government, but campaigning for the office of the presidency is a big difference, right?
[01:56:11]  Podesta is a big shot in the Democratic Party.
[01:56:13]  It's not like he's not in power.
[01:56:15]  These are private organizations, Republican or Democrat.
[01:56:17]  The issue I'm saying is this.
[01:56:19]  By all means, tell me I'm wrong.
[01:56:21]  Believe all of it.
[01:56:22]  I just think it's fascinating you don't have an opinion on this.
[01:56:25]  Well, because I hear you and I... I mean, you have this knowledge that some Democrats who are out of power...
[01:56:33]  You keep saying that, but John Podesta is far from out of power.
[01:56:36]  Well, I mean, in 2020, he wasn't in the government.
[01:56:39]  He's a big shot in the Democratic Party, and he basically has a lot of say in who gets to run and who doesn't, and where funding comes from.
[01:56:44]  Okay.
[01:56:44]  He had power within the Democratic Party, but people who...
[01:56:47]  And he's saying, if Trump wins, we will get...
[01:56:49]  We will...
[01:56:50]  Wait, did Panetta say this?
[01:56:52]  Or just there's like 14 different scenarios that are being gamed out, and because they're doing the war game, this is one of them that happens in this sort of completely hypothetical thing.
[01:57:03]  But why do you think they entertained the possibility of West Coast secession?
[01:57:08]  Like, that's just stupid, isn't it?
[01:57:10]  It's a stupid thing for them to do.
[01:57:13]  Listen, Donald Trump had states competing over PPE during COVID. He completely abandoned this country at a time where there was a once-in-a-lifetime crisis.
[01:57:25]  What if Trump steals the election?
[01:57:26]  What do you think will happen?
[01:57:28]  If Trump steals the election?
[01:57:30]  What do you think would happen?
[01:57:31]  What do you mean by steal?
[01:57:33]  Let's say that Kamala Harris wins the popular—here's a scenario that's playing out right now.
[01:57:36]  Mississippi had a lawsuit.
[01:57:38]  Fifth Circuit Court ruled that ballots received after Election Day, even if postmarked before, are illegal to count.
[01:57:44]  This would have to go to the Supreme Court for final adjudication.
[01:57:47]  But one scenario that is potential because of this is that— Donald Trump is winning on Election Day.
[01:57:53]  However, mail-in votes have yet to be counted, of course.
[01:57:55]  This is what happened in 2020.
[01:57:57]  Then, when those votes come in, Republicans sue, going to the Supreme Court, which you believe is right-leaning, and the Supreme Court says- Wait, wait.
[01:58:03]  I believe it's right-leaning?
[01:58:05]  Do you not believe it's right-leaning?
[01:58:07]  I'm not making a point about my or your belief.
[01:58:09]  I'm saying- You said you believe it's right-leaning.
[01:58:11]  Really?
[01:58:11]  It's right-leaning.
[01:58:12]  I will say, as you have stated, the court is right-leaning, okay?
[01:58:14]  So my point is this.
[01:58:14]  Thank you.
[01:58:17]  If Kamala Harris is losing on Election Day, but it is perceived that she will win when mail-in belts come in the following day, but the Republicans sue, citing the Fifth Circuit Court, it goes to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court rules all of those votes for Kamala, which would give her the win, are out.
[01:58:34]  Trump is now the president despite losing the popular vote and the Electoral College.
[01:58:37]  What do you think happens?
[01:58:39]  Well, we have a model for this, the year 2000, where all of the legal establishment was shocked that the Supreme Court intervened and prevented Florida from counting all the votes.
[01:58:54]  And to the extent that we, you know, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but the Democrats basically stood down.
[01:59:06]  Do you think Democrats would just stand down and let Trump come in?
[01:59:09]  I would be surprised if there weren't massive protests and I think we would see states attempt to get more progressive and become more sustainable and not rely on the federal government as much.
[01:59:28]  What if Trump sends in the military to start rounding up illegal immigrants?
[01:59:32]  Oh, I think that's going to be really, really ugly, in addition to being like a horrible thing in America.
[01:59:36]  You think if troops are putting people on buses and trains, the Democrats will just stand by and say this is fine?
[01:59:40]  I mean, if the Supreme Court basically says it's okay to deploy the military in the United States, I think that could be a problem.
[01:59:52]  Now, you've just given me that scenario.
[01:59:54]  Would you imagine Kamala Harris doing the same thing?
[01:59:57]  Do you think that she would send the military to deport 11 million people?
[02:00:00]  No.
[02:00:01]  She said she wants to recently.
[02:00:03]  She said people who enter illegally will be quickly and immediately removed.
[02:00:08]  Well, of that 11 million people, 80% of them have been here for over 10 years.
[02:00:13]  So how is it where you can so easily work up a scenario where Donald Trump instigates a civil war, but you can't with Kamala Harris that you think they're the same?
[02:00:27]  Why do you say I couldn't?
[02:00:28]  All right, well, give me one.
[02:00:29]  So, first of all, I don't really put a lot of weight on Kamala Harris.
[02:00:32]  She wasn't elected.
[02:00:34]  The Democrats voted for her.
[02:00:35]  Well, I mean, it's either going to be her or Donald Trump is the president.
[02:00:39]  So with Trump in office, Trump is screaming at the top of his lungs telling people what to do.
[02:00:43]  With Kamala in office, she's surrounded by intelligence officials, military officers.
[02:00:47]  And what we've seen thus far is the arrest of lawyers.
[02:00:53]  The arrest of...
[02:00:55]  The arrest of lawyers?
[02:00:57]  Donald Trump's lawyers were arrested.
[02:00:58]  For?
[02:01:01]  What's her face?
[02:01:02]  Jenna Ellis.
[02:01:04]  Was that her name?
[02:01:04]  She got charged with RICO for simply being Trump's lawyer.
[02:01:09]  Really?
[02:01:09]  Did it hold up in court?
[02:01:12]  She ended up, I think she pled guilty, pleaded guilty.
[02:01:15]  She ended up crying on TV apologizing for having done it.
[02:01:17]  They included her in RICO because she filed a paperwork on Trump's behalf for his election claims.
[02:01:24]  Oh, because she knew they were false.
[02:01:26]  No, I don't think that was what she was charged with.
[02:01:28]  She was charged with RICO counts one and two, which was participating in?
[02:01:31]  A conspiracy to defraud the United States.
[02:01:35]  And so the issue then becomes, if you're a lawyer and you are retained by someone who says, here's the argument I want to make, and you go, okay, then they criminally charge you for it.
[02:01:44]  That's a huge step over the course.
[02:01:45]  Well, if you're involved in fraud, then yes, that's always been the case.
[02:01:49]  If you're not...
[02:01:50]  Is this the first time that a lawyer has ever been subjected to something like that in a fraud case like that?
[02:01:55]  Not sure, but his other lawyers got charged, too, in Wisconsin.
[02:01:58]  So it's...
[02:01:59]  You know what?
[02:02:00]  By all means, Sam...
[02:02:01]  Wait, wait.
[02:02:02]  Go ahead and tell him that she deserves it.
[02:02:04]  Say she deserves it.
[02:02:05]  She deserves it.
[02:02:06]  Okay, now, what do you think Trump supporters will respond with when they see Trump's lawyers, former staffers, Navarro, Bannon being put in prison?
[02:02:13]  Certainly, you know, supporters don't like, you know, people going to jail.
[02:02:21]  Why didn't Merrick Garland go to jail for contempt of Congress?
[02:02:24]  Why didn't he go to jail for contempt of Congress?
[02:02:27]  Yeah.
[02:02:27]  What do you mean?
[02:02:28]  From the Justice Department?
[02:02:29]  Yeah.
[02:02:30]  Was it her investigation or was it?
[02:02:33]  I'm getting the name wrong.
[02:02:34]  He was held in contempt of Congress I think twice.
[02:02:36]  There's been a lot of people who have been held in contempt of Congress who haven't gone to prison.
[02:02:40]  So the issue right now is Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon go and when Merrick Garland defies Congress, he does not.
[02:02:46]  I think government officials probably get away with this more because we had congressional, we had members of Congress who also...
[02:02:53]  That is a fine argument.
[02:02:54]  That is a fine argument.
[02:02:55]  We're getting off the original question was...
[02:02:57]  The question is, do you think Trump supporters are going to accept this as true, that it's just government officials getting...
[02:03:03]  I don't know.
[02:03:06]  I've seen Trump supporters believe a lot of very strange things, like John F. Kennedy is in the, you know, Junior is in the audience.
[02:03:14]  That is, yeah.
[02:03:16]  So I have no idea how to predict.
[02:03:18]  But again, the question I ask, do you think, can you come up with a scenario where Harris instigates a civil war in the way that you talked about with Trump doing it?
[02:03:29]  The Harris administration, yes.
[02:03:30]  Okay.
[02:03:31]  Let me hear it.
[02:03:33]  The expansive arrest and prosecution of Donald Trump, his supporters, and those associated with his movement.
[02:03:37]  Well, Bannon went to jail and Navarro went to jail and there was no civil war.
[02:03:44]  Why would that right now as an election is looming?
[02:03:47]  So another example would be, let's say Donald Trump actually is losing on election day and votes are going to come in and they sue and get his votes disqualified.
[02:03:56]  Or how about this?
[02:03:57]  Democrats don't do that.
[02:04:00]  Democrats don't challenge elections?
[02:04:01]  No, they challenge elections, but Democrats don't disenfranchise.
[02:04:06]  Republicans have an extensive history of that.
[02:04:09]  So the factor right now is what we are seeing with the current political establishment.
[02:04:15]  I don't think it's Joe Biden.
[02:04:16]  I think the way the Democrats have operated is in administration, Trump is unique in that Trump is Trump.
[02:04:21]  Trump's in charge.
[02:04:22]  Trump tells people.
[02:04:23]  Oh my God, seriously?
[02:04:24]  You don't think Trump is screaming at people and telling them what to do?
[02:04:26]  I got news for you.
[02:04:27]  You think Trump has got military advisors that he trusts and listens to?
[02:04:30]  Oh, no, no.
[02:04:31]  There's no doubt.
[02:04:32]  No, no, no.
[02:04:32]  We're not in agreement.
[02:04:34]  Donald Trump is going to outsource so much of, like, you know...
[02:04:38]  All his picks were picked by the Heritage Foundation for the Supreme Court.
[02:04:43]  There is a huge...
[02:04:45]  Between Russell Vogt, who was not only one of the architects of Project 2025, but he was also the chair of the Republican Platform Committee...
[02:04:59]  They have outlined their entire program to dismantle the administrative state.
[02:05:03]  Donald Trump is not going to get involved in the micro part.
[02:05:06]  We've all seen the headlines in the news of how somebody lost their life in an act of cold-blooded murder, and it grabs your attention.
[02:05:12]  But have you ever stopped to think about the life of the person at the center of the news story?
[02:05:17]  These victims were way more than a salacious headline.
[02:05:21]  I'm Eric Carter-Londine, and my podcast, The Murder in My Family, dives into some of those stories to help listeners get to know the person who was lost, and how their death affected those closest to them.
[02:05:32]  Listen to The Murder in My Family everywhere you listen to podcasts.
[02:05:36]  So that they're going to destroy the administrative state, like Steve Bannon said that he wanted to do at CPAC five or eight years ago, whenever it was.
[02:05:44]  And this time around, they've got a very laid out, meticulous plan to do it.
[02:05:50]  They have binders full of people that they plan to hire to carry this out.
[02:05:58]  And they're going to dismantle the administrative state.
[02:06:02]  I agree.
[02:06:02]  And all Donald Trump wants to make sure is he doesn't go to jail.
[02:06:05]  So there's two potentialities, and we'll keep them simple.
[02:06:08]  Do you think that Trump supporters, his fans, his administration, the people you just mentioned, will just let the Democrats take over and put him in jail and do the things they want to do?
[02:06:20]  Well, I don't think Democrats are just going to put him in jail.
[02:06:23]  I mean, I think, will he let them for whatever reason?
[02:06:26]  Let's say he's like legitimately convicted of a crime.
[02:06:28]  Do you think he's going to let him do it?
[02:06:29]  What do you mean, let who do what?
[02:06:32]  Do you think in the event Democrats win, Trump supporters will just say, okay, we lost?
[02:06:39]  I mean, do I expect them to...
[02:06:43]  I don't know, January 6, 2.0.
[02:06:44]  Well, I think this time around people are going to be a lot more attuned to the potential of that happening, so I think they're going to inhibit it.
[02:06:51]  Would that also include the people who would perpetrate it?
[02:06:55]  I'm unclear what you're saying.
[02:06:57]  If you're saying that people are attuned to expect a January 6, would that not also include those who seek to perpetrate a January 6?
[02:07:04]  Meaning they will be prepared for countermeasures.
[02:07:06]  I mean, I guess that's conceivable, but I don't think that's a civil war at that point.
[02:07:11]  I think actually the way that I think there's going to be civil strife.
[02:07:16]  I don't think there's going to be some mass movement.
[02:07:19]  I think that once Trump, in the event that he loses, I think over time there's just going to be less interest in the guy.
[02:07:30]  I don't think he's going to run again in four years.
[02:07:32]  He can barely stand now.
[02:07:34]  Do you believe that there is a single-digit probability of a second January 6th type event?
[02:07:39]  Trump loses and then his supporters come out en masse?
[02:07:43]  I think that, I mean, it's conceivable that there's an event, but he doesn't have control of the government in this instance, where he did before.
[02:07:54]  But people just showed up.
[02:07:57]  They weren't government actors, the 200,000 who showed up in D.C. that day.
[02:08:01]  Well, I mean, he planned a rally on the ellipse.
[02:08:05]  He could tweet that out again and it could happen again.
[02:08:07]  He could tweet that out, but there's not going to be a rally.
[02:08:10]  He's not going to be able to have a rally there.
[02:08:12]  He's not going to get a permit.
[02:08:13]  You think Trump supporters would not show up if he asked him to show up because he doesn't have a permit?
[02:08:18]  I think there would be a lot less, yes, without a doubt.
[02:08:21]  I mean, people thought there was going to be riots down at his courtroom appearances in New York City, and there was not many people at all.
[02:08:30]  I really do think that he is more of a paper tiger now.
[02:08:33]  Now, are there fringe groups, like militias, that get inspired by him and the Republicans?
[02:08:39]  Yes, we've always had those, though.
[02:08:40]  What percentage of people fought in the American Revolution?
[02:08:42]  What was the percentage of the American population that actually fought?
[02:08:47]  I mean, we had 500,000 deaths, I would say, in the 1860s.
[02:08:54]  I don't know.
[02:08:58]  Maybe 10%?
[02:09:00]  I think 10 is the academic number.
[02:09:02]  There's a lot of people.
[02:09:03]  Have you ever heard of the 3%ers?
[02:09:06]  It's some right-wing militia group, right?
[02:09:09]  And that name comes from 3% of the American population fought in the American Revolution.
[02:09:15]  Academics lean more towards like 10% or so.
[02:09:19]  But the important factor there is it does not take very many people at all to instigate civil war.
[02:09:25]  It takes actually only a couple.
[02:09:28]  And that creates a scenario where dominoes...
[02:09:30]  And do you think that's more likely to happen with people on the right or on the left in this country?
[02:09:36]  In different ways equally.
[02:09:38]  But there's a substantial difference.
[02:09:40]  In different ways equally.
[02:09:41]  Yes.
[02:09:43]  So you think it's the same probability that it would come from the left as it would the right?
[02:09:48]  I don't know.
[02:09:49]  I could calculate probabilities.
[02:09:50]  I can say that the left has already created several economists.
[02:09:52]  How many left-wing militias are there?
[02:09:54]  Hundreds.
[02:09:55]  Hundreds of left-wing militias?
[02:09:56]  Are you familiar with the John Brown Gun Club or the Red Guard?
[02:09:58]  Two prominent ones.
[02:09:59]  Rose City Antifa may not be a militia, but they certainly did participate in taking over several militias.
[02:10:05]  How many people are in that?
[02:10:06]  I mean, off the top of my head, I can name, you know, like the three percenters, the Oath Keepers, you know, those Bundy folks.
[02:10:17]  That's not a militia.
[02:10:19]  How many can you name, too?
[02:10:20]  Well, I mean, there's neo-Nazi groups.
[02:10:23]  Ah, come on.
[02:10:23]  Don't tell me I need to name them all.
[02:10:25]  You're not going to name any.
[02:10:26]  I don't.
[02:10:26]  Well, you can.
[02:10:27]  I'm sure you can.
[02:10:28]  I actually can't.
[02:10:29]  I can think of...
[02:10:31]  Do you think there's the same amount of right-wing militias as there are left-wing militias?
[02:10:35]  I said that we've already seen the left take over several city blocks for months on end and kill people.
[02:10:40]  And was it in Portland?
[02:10:42]  How many people were killed?
[02:10:43]  Two or three?
[02:10:43]  In Provo, Utah, a guy ran up to a car and just shot a guy for no reason.
[02:10:46]  That was reckless insurgency.
[02:10:48]  In Minnesota, you had the George Floyd autonomous zone for like two years.
[02:10:52]  In Atlanta, you had the Wendy's autonomous zone.

=== Acute Violence and Its Perception (04:35) ===

[02:10:55]  You've had numerous attempts.
[02:10:56]  I mean, in Seattle with the Chaz Chop, you had armed guards outside, took over a police station and killed people.
[02:11:03]  They unloaded hundreds of rounds from rifles into a white SUV with two teenagers in it.
[02:11:08]  So if we're going to ignore the wave of mass violence, the 36 deaths in 2020 and act like only the right is capable of violence, it's silly.
[02:11:16]  Well, we have data from this.
[02:11:18]  We have data from the Department of Justice.
[02:11:21]  Sure, and it's...
[02:11:22]  I don't know which one has the higher probability, but we do know that both are capable, and we don't know to what degree is required to start a conference.
[02:11:29]  You and I both know what the bulk of people who own weapons in this country...
[02:11:34]  We can look at the Department of Justice, regardless of who has been head of the administration, and see that they have been saying for decades that these militias exist on the right, and they're far more prominent, they're far more dangerous.
[02:11:46]  But I never made an equivalent.
[02:11:48]  I said no to that question.
[02:11:50]  You're not making an equivalent.
[02:11:51]  You asked me if I thought there was equal probability.
[02:11:52]  I said no.
[02:11:54]  Oh, which has more probability?
[02:11:56]  Yeah, the right in 100%.
[02:11:59]  Oh, so the right, okay.
[02:12:00]  We're in agreement.
[02:12:01]  All right, fine.
[02:12:02]  We both agree that if there is a threat from civil war, it comes from the right in this country.
[02:12:08]  That's an absolute statement that I didn't make.
[02:12:11]  Okay.
[02:12:12]  Probabilistically, the right is a larger threat for destabilization than the left.
[02:12:16]  Why are you sort of like trying to obfuscate what you're saying?
[02:12:21]  There's more of a chance if there's a civil war that's going to come from the right than the left.
[02:12:25]  Agreed.
[02:12:25]  Okay, great.
[02:12:26]  Yeah, but I was never in disagreement on that.
[02:12:28]  Oh, I'm sorry.
[02:12:29]  Not once in any of my content have I ever said that.
[02:12:30]  The question is, though, what does it mean to instigate a civil war?
[02:12:33]  What does it mean to be the first shot fired?
[02:12:36]  These are deep questions that go back to historical conflicts where we try to determine what started the war, and then you'll get people making arguments about when it really started, when it didn't.
[02:12:45]  A big question of the war in 1861 is, for us, we know it started with Fort Sumter, but at the time, they didn't think Civil War started until well after the fact, to the degree that the Battle of Bull Run, they were picnicking.
[02:12:55]  Despite we know historically the Civil War started, they did not make that determination.
[02:12:59]  So you could argue history is written by the victors.
[02:13:02]  In the event that the right—and the reason why I say there's a greater risk for civil war from the right is they're the ones actively calling for national divorce, which is a mistake.
[02:13:09]  They're the ones who are more likely to—well, January 6th, for instance, was bad.
[02:13:15]  The left, while they riot and there is violence from them, it is what I would call blunt, widespread, low impact.
[02:13:22]  On the right, it's typically high impact, not as widespread.
[02:13:25]  January 6th was a riot in one of the worst ways imaginable at a Capitol building during the election, the counting of the electoral vote, the certification.
[02:13:33]  That's what I would call acute domestic violence.
[02:13:36]  And that was also...
[02:13:38]  really going towards the heart of a civil society, which is the peaceful transfer of power.
[02:13:45]  I mean, you know, to the extent that there were riots or protests, the idea was to change public policy, to show dissatisfaction with the police state to show dissatisfaction with the police state or the state of policing.
[02:14:06]  That is not a undermining of the fundamental principles of the way that the, of basically undercutting across the board the The issue is that I see is that if you're saying something like the threat comes from the right, well, let's parse that down.
[02:14:29]  There is a higher probability of instability or conflict arising from actions on the right because their actions tend to be acute.
[02:14:35]  January 6, sharp and extremely potentially dangerous.
[02:14:39]  The left, however, does show a different propensity for violence, which we call blunt, obtuse.
[02:14:43]  That is, the widespread riots of 2020 were not targeted at a Capitol building during election, but they were substantially larger, resulting in around 30 or so deaths.
[02:14:52]  I think we attribute around 20-plus to the director riots, and then there were ancillary deaths as a result of the actions of the riots.
[02:14:57]  There were the seizure of autonomous zones, like in Seattle.
[02:15:01]  There was an attempt in Portland, Minnesota, Atlanta.
[02:15:03]  And when we're talking about what could ignite a civil war, you don't need only acute.
[02:15:10]  But it is a higher risk.
[02:15:12]  That is, you will more likely hear on the news a guy goes into a church and shoots a bunch of people because of how extreme and psychotic it is.

=== Social Security's Financial Future (08:02) ===

[02:15:20]  Though it happens substantially less than leftists punching someone in the head.
[02:15:24]  Nobody really cares if a fight breaks out in the middle of Portland.
[02:15:26]  We're not going to report on that.
[02:15:27]  That's stupid.
[02:15:28]  But if you get to the point where you get a Summer of Love 2020 with a Donald Trump in office and this time around he says, I'm sending in the National Guard, you may end up with...
[02:15:37]  Conflict, civil strife, insurgency instigated by left violence.
[02:15:42]  Whereas with the right, you could get January 6, 2.0, where they injure politicians.
[02:15:47]  I'm, like, sitting here in amazement to the extent that you have contemplated these things and have created this whole sort of, like, macro associated with it that is, I think, like, incredibly unlikely, A, and B... I never said it was incredibly likely.
[02:16:11]  No, I'm just, I know that.
[02:16:14]  I'm just, I'm amazed.
[02:16:16]  You know, like, one of the things that the last video, and we didn't get a chance to talk about Social Security, I think you had brought it up before the show.
[02:16:24]  I was reading Forbes.
[02:16:25]  But one of the things that I'm amazed about is how, and I think this sort of was my point about you bringing it up so much, the, you know, I suppose I can understand why, like, The Atlantic wants to make an opinion piece on it, because it's sort of like click-baity stuff.
[02:16:43]  But the depth in which you go into these scenarios, which, again, I think are incredibly unlikely, and also some attempt to create some type of equivalence, although you do concede that the probability is higher that this is going to come from the right, versus, like, Social Security...
[02:17:06]  Well, real quick, I'll answer your point before you get to Social Security.
[02:17:10]  I do think it's a bit unfair for you to ask me why I think a thing and then get mad that I brought it up.
[02:17:14]  Well, no, I mean, I didn't.
[02:17:19]  How could the left do this?
[02:17:20]  Well, here's one way.
[02:17:21]  Ha ha!
[02:17:21]  Why did you even think of something like that?
[02:17:22]  Well, you never, you still haven't answered that question.
[02:17:25]  You can ask me about quantum physics.
[02:17:26]  You're just talking about blunt violence.
[02:17:27]  Well, if you can't understand it, I can't help you.
[02:17:29]  Yeah, I mean, I think...
[02:17:31]  We can talk about quantum physics and the organization of nature, entropy, and entropy.
[02:17:35]  No.
[02:17:36]  But if you don't ask me about those things, you can't get mad that I talk about the things you ask me to talk about.
[02:17:39]  No, I understand.
[02:17:39]  I understand.
[02:17:40]  I just said I was amazed at the depth in which you do that relative to how much little time you spend on something like just even learning the basics of something like Social Security, which essentially our government does three things.
[02:17:56]  It is a war machine.
[02:17:59]  And then provides Medicare and Social Security.
[02:18:02]  I mean, just on a per dollar basis.
[02:18:04]  I think it's fair to point out, as pertaining to Social Security, is if I'm going to read The Atlantic and comment on it, criticize me for having unoriginal thoughts.
[02:18:11]  If I'm going to read Forbes and comment on it, criticize me for having unoriginal thoughts.
[02:18:14]  No, I don't think you should have original thoughts.
[02:18:16]  I mean, part of this job is not to...
[02:18:18]  My point is, your issue with my take on Social Security is just because I read The Atlantic and Forbes that day.
[02:18:24]  Well, I... And they were wrong, I guess.
[02:18:26]  I don't know.
[02:18:27]  Maybe you misread it, but...
[02:18:28]  I read Forbes saying that insolvency is coming and the system can't sustain itself because on average you need 2.8 to 4 workers to maintain a single recipient.
[02:18:35]  No.
[02:18:35]  And I said, well, hold on.
[02:18:36]  Who did you read?
[02:18:37]  When you say Forbes, who was the writer?
[02:18:39]  I don't know.
[02:18:39]  Did you pull up the video?
[02:18:40]  When did we pull up the Forbes?
[02:18:41]  Do you want me to pull it up?
[02:18:42]  I mean, one of the things that, you know, I think...
[02:18:45]  When you brought up, like, you know, all the Dave Rubin videos I do, or we do a lot of videos about you...
[02:18:53]  We got 230,000 views on that Social Security video.
[02:18:58]  And I can tell you, I've talked about Social Security so many times, never gotten those type of numbers.
[02:19:04]  But your presentation and lack of awareness about it gave me the opportunity to explain Social Security to 200,000 people that wouldn't do it.
[02:19:15]  But it was stunning.
[02:19:17]  You talk about me a lot.
[02:19:18]  Well, I mean, because of...
[02:19:20]  Honestly, in instances like that, like I say, no one's going to listen to a dry diatribe about Social Security, but when you come out with such misinformation based upon, I guess, you read an article or two that day...
[02:19:33]  Indeed it is.
[02:19:34]  And it's literally one of the largest...
[02:19:38]  Like, one-third of our government, at least in terms of dollars, is Social Security.
[02:19:42]  And you read two articles that day in Forbes.
[02:19:46]  You don't know by whom or what their perspective was.
[02:19:49]  Yes, I don't memorize every article I read.
[02:19:51]  I understand.
[02:19:53]  But you then pontificate and say Social Security is a dumb idea.
[02:19:57]  You don't realize that increase in productivity means that while it may have been, you know, two workers for every one Social Security person back in the day, or I should say vice versa, one worker for every two retirees, now it can be one worker for every four retirees because of increase in productivity.
[02:20:16]  And Social Security is not going insolvent.
[02:20:19]  There's a trust fund that was established during the Reagan era, and that will last for another 10 years if we don't do anything else.
[02:20:30]  But everything else in this country will go broke.
[02:20:34]  I'm in complete agreement with you as one of the challenges we face.
[02:20:37]  A lot of people like to attribute to me, and I say this as many times as I can, I just read the news and opine on it.
[02:20:44]  One of the things that I have criticized you for in the past is that you don't go in-depth with the serious stuff and actually, like, learn about this stuff, and you opine about it, which, you know, it's your...
[02:21:00]  Well, but you're not reading it very well, because...
[02:21:03]  I'm just reading what the paragraph says.
[02:21:05]  Here's CNBC. Trust fund reserves used to pay beneficiaries are projected to become insolvent by 2035.
[02:21:10]  Well, what does that mean?
[02:21:12]  Only that what comes in is able to go out.
[02:21:15]  Okay.
[02:21:16]  And so what's the cuts on that?
[02:21:18]  What do you mean?
[02:21:19]  Well, I mean, what comes in, what goes out.
[02:21:22]  You have to increase taxes or increase the worker load.
[02:21:24]  Right.
[02:21:25]  Not the worker load.
[02:21:26]  Like the amount of workers.
[02:21:28]  When the trust fund runs out, what will payments be?
[02:21:32]  I don't know.
[02:21:34]  Okay.
[02:21:35]  That's a pretty important aspect of this, right?
[02:21:37]  I mean, this is the incuriosity that you have about the basis.
[02:21:41]  What's incurious about it?
[02:21:43]  You're not interested in what that means?
[02:21:45]  You know that the trust fund is insolvent in 10 years, but you don't know what the implications of that.
[02:21:51]  The implications are older people will not have money and younger people have to pay more money.
[02:21:56]  When you say older people will not have money, how much less?
[02:22:00]  Well, it depends on what the government decides they're going to allocate.
[02:22:03]  No, no, no, no, no.
[02:22:04]  It's already set in stone.
[02:22:05]  There's no allocation.
[02:22:06]  It's 85% of benefits will be paid out.
[02:22:09]  There'll be a loss of 15% benefits.
[02:22:11]  But not necessarily younger people are going to have to pay money.
[02:22:14]  New workers will have to.
[02:22:15]  No, no, no.
[02:22:16]  They're always going to have to pay, hopefully, with Social Security, unless the Republicans have their ability to cut it.
[02:22:21]  But the...
[02:22:22]  Oh, you're right.
[02:22:22]  It actually says 83%.
[02:22:23]  So there you go.
[02:22:25]  Yeah.
[02:22:25]  Oh, you were wrong, Sam.
[02:22:26]  I was off by two percent.
[02:22:28]  You're right.
[02:22:28]  But these numbers, we should say, this is also, we should be clear.
[02:22:32]  There are three things in the actuarial state.
[02:22:35]  But let me just say this about social media.
[02:22:36]  But I accept your argument.
[02:22:37]  You are correct, and I apologize.
[02:22:38]  I just read the story.
[02:22:39]  I read the news, and I made an assessment about it, as I tend to do.
[02:22:42]  Yeah, I think you need to, like, on some of these bigger issues, you've clearly gone very deep into the Civil War thing, which we both agree has a very low chance of happening, you know, somewhere above zero.
[02:22:53]  We don't really talk about Social Security all that often.
[02:22:55]  I think like three or four times.
[02:22:56]  It's the most important function of our government.
[02:22:59]  Yeah.
[02:22:59]  I mean, really.

=== Abortion Restrictions Debate (15:40) ===

[02:23:00]  We went a bit over, but I do want to talk to you about abortion.
[02:23:02]  You want to do 10 minutes?
[02:23:03]  We can talk about abortion.
[02:23:05]  What are your thoughts on where we're currently at?
[02:23:07]  Like, what do you think we should be doing?
[02:23:08]  What do I think we should be doing?
[02:23:10]  Well, we should at the very least be re-establishing Roe v.
[02:23:14]  Wade statutorily.
[02:23:16]  I think the Supreme Court was wrong, and I believe that the Fourth Amendment requires that the federal government make a ruling specifically on the issue of abortion.
[02:23:26]  What that becomes, I don't know, but the concept of personhood Needs to be ruled on one way or the other.
[02:23:32]  So this is not a state issue.
[02:23:34]  Trump is wrong about that.
[02:23:35]  But the personhood should...
[02:23:36]  No, I don't believe in personhood in the womb.
[02:23:40]  Right.
[02:23:41]  So you think the Supreme Court should say no personhood in the womb?
[02:23:45]  Definitely.
[02:23:46]  I think the Supreme Court needs to answer one way or the other.
[02:23:49]  Well, I mean, it would put some things to rest.
[02:23:53]  I don't think they're going to do that.
[02:23:55]  I mean...
[02:23:56]  Trump is saying it should be a state's issue, and I believe that is absolutely incorrect.
[02:24:00]  No, I think we had an individual right that existed in this country for 50 years, and it was rolled back.
[02:24:06]  We've never had anything like that whatsoever.
[02:24:08]  I think it's a...
[02:24:10]  A right that, when taken away, deprives people who have babies their sovereignty over their own body.
[02:24:21]  And it's both an economic issue and a personal liberty issue.
[02:24:29]  Do you think there should be restrictions?
[02:24:31]  On abortion?
[02:24:32]  I mean, the problem with the restrictions...
[02:24:39]  Like, for instance, we say only in the case of, let's say, a danger to a woman, you know, or a woman's life, is that that is extremely difficult to assess where that line is.
[02:24:55]  We've seen this.
[02:24:56]  Two women have died at least in Texas as a function of the abortion ban that they have there.
[02:25:03]  We also know that infant mortality in the wake of the Texas thing, because there's been studies on this, increased 15 percent in the wake of the abortion ban there.
[02:25:14]  So, in general, I would say that restrictions are, in practice, not viable, not doable.
[02:25:26]  because you end up costing women their lives.
[02:25:30]  I think that to the extent that I would have restrictions, I think you need a medical provider to provide abortions, you know, in that go past the maybe midway through the second trimester.
[02:25:43]  Like, do you think that with elective abortion should be available up to nine months?
[02:25:51]  I think that is the safest route for women if it is done by a medical provider.
[02:25:59]  Elective.
[02:26:00]  I asked elective, to be clear.
[02:26:04]  Elective.
[02:26:04]  Meaning no reason given, no medical issues, just a woman saying, you know what?
[02:26:09]  I've carried this baby for eight and a half months and I've changed my mind.
[02:26:13]  Well, that's a little crass way of putting it.
[02:26:14]  I think some women are going through some serious crises in their lives, and they may make a decision that's a bit more than just they've changed their mind.
[02:26:21]  Like, for instance, where a woman is being battered by her husband, and then she realizes at month six that if she has this kid, he's going to continue to beat and harm the child, and she can't stay with him or something.
[02:26:31]  Well, I think, you know, I'm not going to assess people's reasons for having an abortion.
[02:26:36]  It's not really my business.
[02:26:37]  But I think that having restrictions ends up costing women's lives.
[02:26:43]  And so I would, on balance, not have restrictions outside of, like, obviously, like, you know, particularly as you get further into the pregnancy, requirements about medical, you know, certified medical providers.
[02:27:01]  So, let's say you have a scenario where a woman goes to a Planned Parenthood, six months pregnant, and she just says, I don't want to explain it, I just would like to get an abortion.
[02:27:10]  Is that a, she should be allowed, there should be just medical professionals that say, we're going to do it, we're not going to ask you why?
[02:27:16]  I think it's okay to, you know, explore it and get a sense, you know, as you would for any type of, like, you know, medical procedure.
[02:27:28]  What does that mean?
[02:27:28]  Like, I think that there's an obligation within the context of ethical practice of medicine to...
[02:27:36]  Not just terminate a baby at six months without reason?
[02:27:38]  Well, no, I'm not saying that they should adjudicate this, but I don't think that, like, the, you know, necessarily medical providers are going to be just like, you know, hop up here, we'll just do this right now.
[02:27:50]  I mean, I think there are procedures in which they do it, but essentially, as long as it's, like, sort of, like, you know, they're following, you know, medical procedures, like, I don't think that somebody can, you know, walk in here at six months and say to you, like, can you get rid of my baby, and you're allowed to do it.
[02:28:06]  No, but I can...
[02:28:07]  I'm just asking, like, should there be a time limit, like 16 weeks?
[02:28:10]  I think that that is—that endangers women too much.
[02:28:16]  So the answer is no.
[02:28:18]  I don't believe so.
[02:28:21]  So—but that would create a circumstance, be it as rare as, you know, it may be, but where there's like an eight-month abortion.
[02:28:27]  It's conceivable.
[02:28:28]  Yeah.
[02:28:30]  I mean, certainly in the 8th or 9th month, I mean, here's the thing.
[02:28:34]  In the 8th or 9th month, you may find that the child is going to not be viable.
[02:28:41]  We're not talking about that.
[02:28:42]  We're talking about elective.
[02:28:43]  I'm specifically trying to ask about that.
[02:28:45]  Here's the danger, though.
[02:28:49]  And this is what I'm talking about, why you have women who have died in Texas, and there's probably a lot more that we're not aware of, is that imposing these restrictions is not like, there's no bulb that shows up when you say, this child is 100% not viable, or that you are, your life is 100% not threatened.
[02:29:15]  Like, where's the threshold?
[02:29:16]  Is it at 20%?
[02:29:18]  If the woman's life is in jeopardy, it's 20%.
[02:29:20]  And this is, you know, a vague, you know, a doctor doesn't have like some meter that they put on the, you know, the woman and say, oh, okay, your life is at 20%.
[02:29:29]  No.
[02:29:31]  These are vague determinations.
[02:29:34]  And when you impose these type of restrictions on what invariably happens is women die.
[02:29:42]  Because in real life, not hypothetical world, in real life, the doctors are afraid of crossing a threshold where they could get imprisoned or they could lose their license.
[02:29:54]  Or, you know, conceivably the woman might too.
[02:29:58]  And so I leave it up to a doctor and the patient.
[02:30:02]  I don't know what constitutes even elective.
[02:30:06]  Like, is it elective if there's a 20% chance I'm going to die?
[02:30:09]  No.
[02:30:10]  That's not elective.
[02:30:11]  It's not elective.
[02:30:11]  What about 5%?
[02:30:12]  That's not elective.
[02:30:13]  What about 1%?
[02:30:14]  Not elective.
[02:30:14]  Okay.
[02:30:15]  We know that...
[02:30:17]  Elective is usually used to describe...
[02:30:18]  0.5%.
[02:30:19]  I've decided I don't want the baby anymore.
[02:30:20]  Because we know that...
[02:30:22]  You know, there's always a danger of a woman dying in childbirth.
[02:30:26]  And it's not, it's above zero.
[02:30:28]  So we're...
[02:30:28]  Oh, come on, come on.
[02:30:29]  No, we're trying to be reasonable, right?
[02:30:31]  We want to solve the problem.
[02:30:32]  We don't want to just say, oh, well...
[02:30:33]  What's the problem?
[02:30:34]  There are conservatives who believe that if the baby is...
[02:30:37]  Well, for many, I don't even believe in IVF because even a fertilized, you know, embryo is life.
[02:30:42]  What's the problem?
[02:30:43]  I understand that there are religious people who don't like what I do, but what's the problem?
[02:30:48]  The death of a baby.
[02:30:49]  Well, I would contend that we're talking about the death of a fetus.
[02:30:56]  So the issue is whether someone determines personhood or not is a legal constitutional question that needs to be answered.
[02:31:04]  For instance, in Civil War, they didn't think black people were humans who had civil rights, and that's clearly the psychotic way to view the world.
[02:31:12]  But you holding the view that an unborn child is or is not—an individual who holds a view, whether they are or not, is an unanswered question at the Supreme Court level that I believe sooner or later will be answered.
[02:31:23]  And they may make a determination that the unborn are persons who are— What do you think?
[02:31:29]  Man, that's tough.
[02:31:30]  I tend to be traditionally pro-choice.
[02:31:32]  I think that when you have— Do you think there should be restrictions on abortion?
[02:31:37]  100%.
[02:31:38]  100%.
[02:31:38]  What should those restrictions be?
[02:31:40]  Time limit for sure, but I don't know.
[02:31:42]  I'm not smart enough to give you a certain amount of time.
[02:31:45]  But here's the problem, is that in practice, that time limit ends up killing women.
[02:31:51]  Well, you've got a dying baby or a dying woman, and we're trying to figure out how to save them both.
[02:31:55]  Well, I mean, one is...
[02:31:56]  Restrictions are, if the baby can survive, why kill it?
[02:32:00]  So you're saying viability.
[02:32:02]  So viability is huge, and medical technology is rapidly expanding that.
[02:32:06]  But there are still a lot of questions in how we handle it.
[02:32:08]  So my position is that the government can't mandate one person provide their body to another person.
[02:32:13]  However, if a person provides consent in the initial phase, now they have an obligation for a certain time period.
[02:32:20]  So if you have sex and you get pregnant, you are obligated to carry that baby to term.
[02:32:26]  Is that what you're saying?
[02:32:27]  I think that I'd be in favor of abortion up to a certain point.
[02:32:30]  I don't understand what the logic is there.
[02:32:33]  Logic is compromise.
[02:32:35]  Oh, so this is just a question of splitting the baby in half, literally.
[02:32:39]  Not literally splitting the baby in half.
[02:32:41]  It is, can the government tell someone you must provide your body and blood to another person?
[02:32:45]  And you say they can up to a certain point.
[02:32:48]  The questions of consent play a role in whether you allow someone and then have an obligation to them based on the requirement.
[02:32:54]  So, for instance, like rape, 100% exception.
[02:32:58]  Health of the mother, 100% exception.
[02:32:59]  Okay, so let's take rape.
[02:33:02]  Yeah, the woman can choose.
[02:33:05]  Okay.
[02:33:06]  What establishes rape?
[02:33:09]  When a person does not consent.
[02:33:11]  Okay.
[02:33:12]  Rape is a criminal term, right?
[02:33:17]  Indeed.
[02:33:17]  So you need to go through the court case.
[02:33:20]  Perhaps.
[02:33:21]  What do you mean perhaps?
[02:33:22]  Can I come in and say I was raped and that's it?
[02:33:25]  All I need to do is say I was raped.
[02:33:27]  Nope.
[02:33:28]  Okay, so you need to have a court case.
[02:33:30]  No, I didn't say that either.
[02:33:31]  There would have to be some degree of indication.
[02:33:33]  Well, you keep telling me what you're not saying, but why don't you just say what you're saying?
[02:33:36]  How do you establish...
[02:33:37]  No, you've got to calm down.
[02:33:37]  Well, how do you establish if rape has taken place or not?
[02:33:42]  So there's rape kits, right?
[02:33:43]  And we can check for abrasions, and a woman who was raped certainly would want to get a rape kit done, I'd imagine.
[02:33:49]  Well, okay.
[02:33:49]  First of all, we know for a fact that a lot of women, A, don't seek rape kits for whatever reason because they're afraid to...
[02:34:02]  Okay, so if you don't get a rape kit...
[02:34:03]  We have responsibilities to ourselves and to others.
[02:34:05]  And sometimes those choices are very difficult to make.
[02:34:08]  So just the existence of a rape kit will establish that rape has happened.
[02:34:13]  Why do we need court cases to establish that rape has happened?
[02:34:15]  I didn't say we did.
[02:34:16]  I said no.
[02:34:18]  So a medical professional who assesses that a rape has occurred, I believe, is largely sufficient.
[02:34:23]  What if they go in too many days after to get a rape kit?
[02:34:28]  And then there's no evidence of rape taking place?
[02:34:30]  Yeah.
[02:34:30]  That would be a restriction.
[02:34:31]  Okay.
[02:34:32]  So who makes that adjudication?
[02:34:35]  If a rape took place?
[02:34:37]  Yeah.
[02:34:38]  The person administering the rape kit.
[02:34:39]  So we would put rape kit people who are administering this and look at the evidence.
[02:34:45]  And do you think it's just like completely binary?
[02:34:48]  Do you think like, well, when you get a rape kit, like this person has definitely been raped or this person has definitely not been raped?
[02:34:53]  I think that we're dealing with something outside of the simplicity of I can go to court.
[02:34:59]  It takes six months to a year to figure something out, which means there's a compromise.
[02:35:03]  How can we come to the best determination to make sure that women are not lying, which I assume would be exceedingly rare, and we're actually going after the criminals?
[02:35:11]  I do not think it's fair to put the burden on someone to perform an abortion without actually taking the responsibility of yourself and saying, look, victims have responsibilities, and it's unfortunate that they're victims, but we're trying our best.
[02:35:24]  So if you don't, you don't go, so let's say, for instance, like, I mean, I don't know if you've ever, you know, spent any time exploring the psychological and the sort of, like, social pressures on people to report rape.
[02:35:44]  I mean, but you're basically saying that if you don't go and get a rape kit, It's contingent upon the police department to assess this rape kit.
[02:35:54]  If you go too late...
[02:35:55]  Is that who's administering the rape kit?
[02:35:57]  Yeah.
[02:35:58]  It's not a doctor?
[02:35:59]  No, I mean, they may have medical things.
[02:36:01]  I was talking about a doctor.
[02:36:03]  She goes to the doctor.
[02:36:03]  She says, I've been raped.
[02:36:04]  They do a kit and they say, okay.
[02:36:06]  And then she says, I would not want to have a pregnancy from this.
[02:36:08]  Now, do you honestly, like, do you know how this works?
[02:36:10]  It's not like it's preponderance of the evidence.
[02:36:12]  I mean, it's like, so you're basically saying the doctor gets to decide.
[02:36:16]  I am.
[02:36:16]  You don't think doctors should be able to decide to give them an abortion?
[02:36:19]  No, I think doctors can decide.
[02:36:21]  Well, I think doctors are responsible.
[02:36:25]  This is a compromise.
[02:36:26]  I'm pro-choice, but I recognize that we're not going to live in a society where one side's demanding an extreme and the other side's demanding the other extreme.
[02:36:31]  So you think the rule should be if you get a rape case?
[02:36:35]  What if it's somebody who...
[02:36:36]  We're talking about edge cases.
[02:36:37]  I mean, I don't know why you're getting so much into the edge cases.
[02:36:39]  Well, I mean...
[02:36:41]  I mean, how often does this even happen?
[02:36:42]  How often do people go in and get an abortion at eight and a half months because they feel like it?
[02:36:47]  That's my point.
[02:36:48]  Yeah, very, very few.
[02:36:49]  Right.
[02:36:50]  So why are you bringing it up?
[02:36:51]  Well, because the people who you would create restrictions are going to cause problems...
[02:36:55]  Exceedingly rare and not even an issue.
[02:36:57]  So then why would we have any restrictions whatsoever?
[02:37:00]  Because...
[02:37:01]  What do you mean?
[02:37:01]  So babies at eight months don't have their lives ended?
[02:37:05]  Well, I mean, what if there are reasons for it?
[02:37:09]  That's then requiring adjudication.
[02:37:10]  But it's so exceedingly rare, you're arguing an edge case for a dramatic change in policy.
[02:37:16]  I'm not.
[02:37:16]  It's not a dramatic change in policy.
[02:37:18]  It's kind of wild that I'm like, women should be able to get abortions, but you're like, yes, but in these exceedingly rare circumstances, we should remove all restrictions because sometimes...
[02:37:26]  Excuse me, I think there's 10 states, at least, I know you can look this up, where there are no restrictions.
[02:37:30]  I agree, yeah.
[02:37:31]  This is not some type of radical change of policy.
[02:37:35]  It exists.
[02:37:36]  No, this is recent.
[02:37:37]  After the end of Roe v.
[02:37:38]  Wade, these are the restrictions that—these changes started happening across the board.
[02:37:41]  I mean, I can understand that.
[02:37:42]  Do you agree with those states removing restrictions?
[02:37:44]  Like I say, yes, because I think— That's not Roe v.
[02:37:47]  Wade.
[02:37:47]  That's the end of Roe v.
[02:37:48]  Oh, I said at least go back to Roe v.
[02:37:48]  Wade.
[02:37:50]  Wade.
[02:37:51]  Didn't Roe v.
[02:37:52]  Wade have a provision on viability?
[02:37:54]  It was an additional case that people don't bring up.
[02:37:55]  That was in the 90s.
[02:37:57]  The Casey.
[02:37:58]  Is that what it was?
[02:37:58]  There was a question about viability and whether or not you can end the life of— The court said, in Casey, it just changed the date in which, or I should say the week in which states could then begin to impose restrictions on that right to get an abortion.
[02:38:19]  Right.
[02:38:21]  Yeah.
[02:38:21]  No, I think these other restrictions end up killing people.

=== Emotional Breakdown: Seeking Accountability (15:23) ===

[02:38:26]  The overturning of Roe and Casey resulted in states removing restrictions.
[02:38:30]  Correct.
[02:38:31]  Wait, I'm sorry.
[02:38:32]  Say that again?
[02:38:33]  The overturning of Roe v.
[02:38:34]  Wade created the legal precedence by which states could begin to remove restrictions.
[02:38:38]  No, no, no.
[02:38:39]  I think they could have done that prior to that.
[02:38:41]  I think they could have done that prior to that.
[02:38:44]  So the question ultimately is...
[02:38:47]  I'm not going to come down as the supreme judge and just say, like, it must be, you know, the right is wrong.
[02:38:53]  I say, and I've told Republicans this, if I was a woman that got raped and you told me I had to have a baby, I'd blow my brains out.
[02:39:00]  Like, there is no fucking way you will tell me that I'm going to, by force, without my consent, give my body to somebody else.
[02:39:09]  There is some degree of responsibility.
[02:39:11]  You have to announce this.
[02:39:15]  You need to follow certain procedures as a victim of a crime.
[02:39:20]  And if you don't, we're going to force you to carry that child to term.
[02:39:25]  Yes, 100%.
[02:39:25]  Okay.
[02:39:26]  There's a responsibility we have as victims of crimes as well.
[02:39:29]  And one of the problems we have in this country is that...
[02:39:32]  That's an interesting theory.
[02:39:33]  Well, it's true, right?
[02:39:35]  If you're a victim and you want accountability and justice, you have to go to court.
[02:39:39]  Well, what if you make the determination that I don't want to go through what is involved with getting accountability and justice, but I also don't want to carry my rapist child?
[02:39:51]  In that scenario, the woman is out of luck, according to you.
[02:39:55]  If you are not willing to take your responsibilities...
[02:40:00]  The responsibilities that the rapist has imposed upon you.
[02:40:05]  Indeed, yes.
[02:40:06]  Okay.
[02:40:07]  So, what do you call this?
[02:40:09]  The Rapist in Power Act?
[02:40:10]  I suppose you'd say that liberals have a view that they have no responsibilities at all.
[02:40:14]  I don't feel like I have a responsibility.
[02:40:17]  I certainly don't feel that if I was someone who could be...
[02:40:25]  I am making an argument.
[02:40:26]  The Rapist Responsibility Act is an emotional nonsense.
[02:40:28]  No, it isn't.
[02:40:29]  We're talking about a person's responsibility to society.
[02:40:32]  That is exactly what you're suggesting.
[02:40:34]  No, it's drama nonsense.
[02:40:35]  No, it's not drama nonsense.
[02:40:36]  It's prop clipping.
[02:40:37]  No, it is not.
[02:40:37]  Yes, you are.
[02:40:38]  Come on.
[02:40:39]  Dude, I don't give a shit about it.
[02:40:41]  Make an argument.
[02:40:42]  Don't say nonsense.
[02:40:43]  The argument is that what you are suggesting is that a woman who is raped has a responsibility that has been bestowed upon them by the rapist.
[02:40:53]  The rapist has chosen you.
[02:40:55]  If I shoot you in the face...
[02:40:58]  I have imparted upon you a responsibility.
[02:41:03]  What you're talking about is fascistic.
[02:41:06]  It is disgusting.
[02:41:07]  Sam, do you think that if someone commits a crime against you— And so I'm sorry I said Rape Empowerment Act and tried to do it in a more satirical way.
[02:41:15]  Your logic centers are shutting down.
[02:41:17]  And listen, no, no, no.
[02:41:18]  You're getting overly emotional.
[02:41:19]  No, I'm not.
[02:41:19]  You are not speaking logically anymore.
[02:41:22]  No, no, no.
[02:41:22]  When a person is a victim of a crime, they have to file paperwork to get accountability.
[02:41:27]  You're trying to pretend like you can find something in here, but it is absolutely nonsense.
[02:41:31]  Yes, it is.
[02:41:32]  You are no longer talking about the issue, nor the law.
[02:41:34]  Because everybody sees, oh, I am definitely talking about it.
[02:41:38]  You're talking about my person, you're doing ad hominems, you've lost it.
[02:41:41]  No, no.
[02:41:42]  Sam, let's start with the law.
[02:41:44]  You're so full of crap.
[02:41:45]  You see, here you go.
[02:41:46]  It's amazing.
[02:41:46]  You can't even make an argument anymore, can you?
[02:41:48]  I don't need to.
[02:41:49]  You don't need to make arguments.
[02:41:50]  No, no, no.
[02:41:51]  Everybody who's watched this knows you're saying that a rape victim has a responsibility that has been bestowed upon them by the rapist.
[02:41:59]  It's gross.
[02:42:00]  It's disgusting.
[02:42:01]  You are having an emotional breakdown right now.
[02:42:03]  I'm not having an emotional breakdown right now.
[02:42:06]  I'm getting exercise.
[02:42:07]  Because I'm thinking of my daughter.
[02:42:09]  And I'm thinking of my daughter.
[02:42:11]  And I'm thinking of the idea that a rapist could force her to do something.
[02:42:16]  You're spiraling.
[02:42:17]  You're spiraling.
[02:42:19]  You're not even stopping talking.
[02:42:21]  You're not even stopping talking.
[02:42:23]  You never think about anything that you say.
[02:42:25]  We're going to say something.
[02:42:25]  We're going to talk or are you going to keep just talking about nonsense?
[02:42:29]  Are you going to wait for...
[02:42:31]  You're prop clipping.
[02:42:31]  You're prop clipping, Sam.
[02:42:33]  You're prop clipping.
[02:42:34]  I don't even know what that means.
[02:42:35]  Yes, you do.
[02:42:36]  No, I don't.
[02:42:36]  Yes, you do.
[02:42:37]  You're prop clipping again.
[02:42:38]  What is prop clipping?
[02:42:38]  You're not arguing abortion anymore.
[02:42:40]  What is prop clipping?
[02:42:41]  You said, Tim, you're full of crap.
[02:42:42]  You're not arguing abortion anymore.
[02:42:44]  You disgust me.
[02:42:45]  Oh, rape, blah, blah.
[02:42:46]  You stopped arguing.
[02:42:48]  You stopped arguing and you started doing performative garbage for the camera.
[02:42:52]  No!
[02:42:52]  You want to have a discussion, Sam?
[02:42:54]  Dude, the best part of this was tying you in knots about the idea that a rapist can force a woman...
[02:43:01]  Here you go again.
[02:43:01]  Here you go again.
[02:43:02]  You're making things up.
[02:43:03]  I'm reiterating.
[02:43:04]  You're prop clipping.
[02:43:05]  I am reiterating.
[02:43:06]  You're prop clipping.
[02:43:07]  I am reiterating your position.
[02:43:09]  You're getting overly emotional.
[02:43:10]  You're getting heated.
[02:43:11]  You're finger-pointing.
[02:43:12]  You're throwing slurs and name-calling.
[02:43:15]  That's the slur.
[02:43:16]  Well, forgive me.
[02:43:17]  You're so full of crap, you disgust me.
[02:43:19]  Honestly, I've got to be honest with you.
[02:43:21]  You want to have a discussion or you're going to have an emotional breakdown?
[02:43:23]  You know what?
[02:43:24]  I'm going to continue with the so-called emotional breakdown because honestly, I think...
[02:43:29]  That's right, Sam.
[02:43:30]  No, I honestly...
[02:43:31]  Let's solve our problems by Sam just freaking out and having emotional breakdowns on camera.
[02:43:36]  I honestly think that, like, what you do is so damaging.
[02:43:40]  Oh, no.
[02:43:40]  And this whole notion that you would allow...
[02:43:44]  It took two hours and 40 minutes for you to break.
[02:43:46]  Yeah.
[02:43:46]  You broke.
[02:43:47]  Sam!
[02:43:48]  Why are you keeping me from talking?
[02:43:50]  Because you haven't let me talk one time.
[02:43:52]  Okay, go ahead.
[02:43:53]  Okay.
[02:43:54]  Victims of crimes who want accountability have responsibilities.
[02:43:58]  What if they don't want accountability?
[02:43:59]  What if they don't want to put themselves on the stand and have to point out that guy?
[02:44:04]  Okay, but they have to carry the baby, right?
[02:44:06]  According to you.
[02:44:07]  If they don't want accountability, then this is a reality.
[02:44:09]  Then they have to carry the baby.
[02:44:11]  This is reality.
[02:44:12]  Say it.
[02:44:13]  Say it.
[02:44:14]  If they don't want accountability, they have to carry that rapist baby.
[02:44:18]  If a woman does not want accountability for her rape, she will carry that baby.
[02:44:22]  She has to.
[02:44:23]  She has to, yeah.
[02:44:24]  Okay.
[02:44:25]  Good.
[02:44:25]  Up to 15 weeks.
[02:44:26]  That's the prop clip I want right there.
[02:44:27]  Right there.
[02:44:28]  Up to 15 weeks.
[02:44:29]  I mean, I think we have come to an agreement.
[02:44:33]  That women can get abortions if they're so-- We've all seen the headlines in the news of how somebody lost their life in an act of cold-blooded murder.
[02:44:40]  And it grabs your attention.
[02:44:41]  But have you ever stopped to think about the life of the person at the center of the news story?
[02:44:46]  These victims were way more than a salacious headline.
[02:44:49]  I'm Eric Carter-Londine, and my podcast, The Murder in My Family, dives into some of those stories to help listeners get to know the person who was lost, and how their death affected those closest to them.
[02:45:01]  Listen to The Murder in My Family everywhere you listen to podcasts.
[02:45:05]  ...choosing without any restrictions up to a certain amount of time, and then after viability would have to...
[02:45:10]  They don't want to pursue their rapists in a public setting, and they don't want to go through that...
[02:45:20]  Sam, you're having an emotional breakdown.
[02:45:22]  You've stopped listening to what's being said.
[02:45:24]  You started getting angry, insulting.
[02:45:26]  You're disgusting.
[02:45:28]  How dare you?
[02:45:29]  You don't think saying to me that you're prop clipping.
[02:45:32]  I don't know what that means.
[02:45:34]  So it's...
[02:45:36]  When you stopped arguing abortion, finger pointing and waving your hands and saying, I tied you in knots in front of the camera.
[02:45:42]  Yes.
[02:45:43]  And this is why people don't invite you on their show.
[02:45:45]  I don't give a shit.
[02:45:46]  I know.
[02:45:47]  I'll tell you something.
[02:45:47]  That's why you don't get invited on shows, because you don't care.
[02:45:50]  No, I don't care.
[02:45:50]  I know you don't care.
[02:45:51]  I'm not saying you do.
[02:45:52]  I don't care.
[02:45:53]  Honestly, like, this is...
[02:45:55]  You start the show, I don't want to talk politics.
[02:45:57]  I want to talk about how you said mean things about me before.
[02:45:59]  Oh, yeah.
[02:45:59]  I wanted to get that.
[02:46:00]  Oh, wait.
[02:46:01]  Yeah, your WWE politics.
[02:46:03]  No, no.
[02:46:04]  Listen, we're talking about how do we effectively have law on abortion.
[02:46:07]  That should be.
[02:46:08]  A woman can do whatever she wants up to 15, 16 weeks, maybe even 22.
[02:46:12]  I don't know what the time limit is.
[02:46:13]  But if the baby is viable, there has to be accountability.
[02:46:15]  None of what you're saying is meaningful at all.
[02:46:18]  There should be a time restriction?
[02:46:20]  15, 22.
[02:46:21]  You're just throwing around numbers.
[02:46:22]  Because there's a debate on how long that duration should be.
[02:46:25]  But my position is that pre-viability, I don't know, some say 22, some say 26.
[02:46:30]  And my addressing view is that the restrictions...
[02:46:33]  Getting angry and you're disgusting and emotional breakdown.
[02:46:36]  Yeah.
[02:46:37]  My emotional breakdown to you is...
[02:46:39]  That when you put these restrictions on women, they in practice are impossible to actually execute.
[02:46:47]  And you have shown that by saying that if a woman refuses to go in front of a court...
[02:46:54]  I never said that.
[02:46:56]  This is what I said, Sam.
[02:46:58]  If it doesn't take accountability, what does accountability mean?
[02:47:01]  A rape kit.
[02:47:01]  Okay, so if a rape kid...
[02:47:03]  You're saying, I was raped with no proof and no evidence, and therefore...
[02:47:06]  They've got to go in within 24 to 36 hours and say to a doctor, I was raped.
[02:47:11]  And if they don't do that, then they're forced to carry the rapist baby.
[02:47:14]  Depending on what you want to happen in society, there are things you have to do.
[02:47:18]  Sometimes you may not want to have to do them, but this idea you have that people...
[02:47:21]  What you're proposing is that the state should be able to enforce crimes against people without evidence.
[02:47:27]  What?
[02:47:29]  You want accountability, but you do not want to go to the- I don't want accountability.
[02:47:32]  I just don't want this woman to have to carry a rapist baby.
[02:47:35]  Right, so this is very fifth grade, right?
[02:47:38]  There is a legal system that exists.
[02:47:41]  We have to work within a legal system because we have compromises in a social contract with other people.
[02:47:45]  The idea that I can take action against another person without proper adjudication is fascistic.
[02:47:51]  What we have to do is figure out what are the terms for each individual circumstance.
[02:47:55]  Who's the other person you're talking about?
[02:47:56]  So we're the baby at six months.
[02:48:00]  You consider a baby a person at six months.
[02:48:03]  Let me ask you this.
[02:48:05]  I consider a baby a person the whole time.
[02:48:09]  A fetus.
[02:48:10]  A person the whole time.
[02:48:12]  Life begins at conception.
[02:48:13]  But the state doesn't have- Life begins at conception.
[02:48:15]  Yes.
[02:48:16]  But the state doesn't have the- You believe that in the context of immigration?
[02:48:19]  But the state doesn't have the authority to tell a person when they must give their body to another person.
[02:48:25]  There's arguments over consent, in which case rape is an exception.
[02:48:29]  However, I'm pro-choice.
[02:48:34]  So what we're talking about now, because make sure you include this in the context, and I'm glad you're here I can say it to you, is a woman up to pre-viability, in my opinion, should be allowed to get an abortion if she so chooses because of the impossibility of properly adjudicating anything in between.
[02:48:49]  I think that's where, when I say you're having a breakdown, it's because I don't think you're listening to what I'm saying.
[02:48:53]  After viability, we're talking about extenuating circumstances where a baby that could survive on its own There's now an issue there where the question becomes, why kill the baby?
[02:49:03]  If we're talking about a period where we're not sure the baby's viable or not, we're wondering why the woman carried the baby this long.
[02:49:09]  The issue is not so black and white for you to just say.
[02:49:12]  Well, you're saying this is about viability, not time limit.
[02:49:19]  Yeah, I'm not...
[02:49:20]  You keep vacillating back and forth.
[02:49:24]  I mean, maybe you don't realize this, but there's completely...
[02:49:27]  If you can't understand, I'll explain it to you.
[02:49:29]  What week is viability?
[02:49:33]  What week is viability?
[02:49:34]  Yes.
[02:49:34]  I mean, I think there's some debate about that.
[02:49:36]  Agreed.
[02:49:37]  My point is I don't know the point at which we as a society will determine it's going to be 16 or 22 or 26.
[02:49:43]  I'm not a scientist or a medical doctor.
[02:49:45]  I agree there's an issue where if the baby can survive on its own, there's no reason to kill it.
[02:49:50]  Well, I mean, would you be in favor of a woman getting a C-section in four or five months just because she doesn't want to carry the baby anymore?
[02:50:04]  If the baby can survive on its own, my position is typically the woman can make that choice, as long as the baby's not being killed.
[02:50:12]  But, you know, so you know how they perform abortions after that point?
[02:50:17]  How they perform abortions after what?
[02:50:19]  Like, there's varying degrees of how abortions are performed.
[02:50:22]  So the question I have is this.
[02:50:24]  Let me put it this way.
[02:50:26]  You know...
[02:50:26]  Like dilation and extraction?
[02:50:28]  Are you talking about...
[02:50:28]  My position largely is we've got two real distinct worldviews on this one that are extreme ends.
[02:50:36]  Neither agrees with each other, and I'm trying to navigate in between to get people to be like, look, there's got to be some standard.
[02:50:41]  Dude, the ideas behind anti-abortion are primarily religious fundamentalism, and it is about maintaining a gender hierarchy.
[02:50:52]  And the idea that you can negotiate, you're basically taking Hillary Clinton's position from 2004.
[02:50:58]  Probably.
[02:50:58]  And it doesn't work that way.
[02:51:03]  The fundamentalists who are pushing this ideology, and it's largely fundamentalists, And if not directly, certainly downstream from a religious fundamentalism, they're not interested in your compromise.
[02:51:18]  And the proof of it is...
[02:51:21]  You're not interested in yours?
[02:51:22]  I'm not compromising.
[02:51:24]  The proof of it is, after 50 years, there was a compromise.
[02:51:28]  It was Casey.
[02:51:30]  Exactly what you're talking about.
[02:51:32]  Which is why, when you asked me at the beginning, I said, at the very least, go back to Roe v.
[02:51:36]  Wade.
[02:51:36]  And maintain those protections.
[02:51:38]  But that equilibrium was not enough for the right-wing Republican Party.
[02:51:43]  And so, therefore, that's where we're at now.
[02:51:46]  That's the end of story.
[02:51:48]  And now we have states with no restrictions and we have states with absolute restrictions.
[02:51:51]  There was a compromise and the right-wing in this country did not want it.
[02:51:58]  That's it.
[02:51:59]  That's why this is a debate.
[02:52:01]  And you have an individual right that has cost the lives of multiple women across the country.
[02:52:08]  It has increased infant mortality, like I said, at least in Texas, by 15%.
[02:52:13]  And I think it also, and I think it's much harder to measure this, But it subjugates women in this country because it basically says you have less rights to have bodily autonomy, and that's just the beginning.
[02:52:30]  Yeah, I agree with that one.
[02:52:32]  Yeah, as I stated, if I was a woman and I was raped and I was forced to carry the baby, I'd blow my brains out.
[02:52:38]  And so that's why I say up to a certain point, I'm pro-choice.
[02:52:42]  It's a certain time period, because I agree, after the baby can live on its own, I don't understand why you kill it.
[02:52:48]  If there was a way to have the type of restrictions you're talking and have a child be viable outside of the womb and all this, but in reality, that's not the way it works.
[02:53:03]  These things don't work the way that you're talking about.
[02:53:06]  The rape exceptions...
[02:53:08]  To be fair, this issue is the razor's edge.
[02:53:11]  There's no middle.
[02:53:12]  It's one side or the other.
[02:53:14]  It has to be in the way that it is in practice, and frankly, but these are religious fundamentalists, and they're not going to stop.
[02:53:21]  They're not going to stop with abortion.
[02:53:23]  They will come for IVF. Of course they will.
[02:53:26]  I would also make the argument that I don't think the left will stop with their ideology either.
[02:53:31]  Both are going to...
[02:53:32]  I think, I mean, listen, you started this by saying Obama didn't even, in case Roe v.

=== Agenda Items Divide Left (08:36) ===

[02:53:42]  Wade in statute.
[02:53:43]  I mean, the left, this was...
[02:53:45]  My issue with that was Democrats and Republicans both will argue they're for something, but then use it as a wedge issue.
[02:53:50]  The left was essentially as a political matter was fine with Roe v. Wade and Casey for that matter.
[02:54:02]  To the extent that there was any talk about abortion rights amongst Democrats in the left it was to lock it in because the right is coming for this right.
[02:54:13]  And they have now done it.
[02:54:15]  So, I mean, the false equivalency you're making here is literally that.
[02:54:19]  What false equivalency?
[02:54:20]  Well, the idea that the left is pushing this agenda beyond...
[02:54:23]  No, what's happening is there was a compromise.
[02:54:27]  The right's got their agenda items, the left has their agenda items.
[02:54:29]  They're both pushing them endlessly.
[02:54:30]  Well, I mean, everybody's are political animals and they want, you know, they have their program for society.
[02:54:37]  Which is me agreeing with you.
[02:54:38]  You say Republicans won't stop.
[02:54:39]  And I say I agree on the issues the left cares about.
[02:54:41]  They won't stop either.
[02:54:42]  Well, that's true.
[02:54:43]  And I think, you know, people make a determination whether they want a religious fundamentalist party to dictate their lives or not.
[02:54:51]  Or an ideological fundamentalist party.
[02:54:53]  Well, no.
[02:54:53]  The fundamentalism is an ideology as well.
[02:54:56]  It just happens to be born in religion and religious fundamentalism.
[02:55:00]  Last question, because we've gone way over.
[02:55:02]  I do appreciate you hanging out.
[02:55:03]  Why do you think it is so many former liberals are now leaving the left?
[02:55:10]  I mean, people switch parties and ideologies all the time.
[02:55:14]  Not happening the other way around.
[02:55:15]  Is that right?
[02:55:15]  Yeah.
[02:55:16]  Well, I... Like, where's a big right-wing pundit who joined a liberal network, like Anna Kasperian announcing she's leaving the left, you know what I mean?
[02:55:22]  Or Dave Rubin?
[02:55:24]  I mean, listen, if you want to say that these are, like, the intellectual pillars of...
[02:55:31]  No, certainly not.
[02:55:32]  I'm saying something's causing an emotional rift that makes people not want to be on the left anymore.
[02:55:36]  Well, I would suggest it's probably cash.
[02:55:39]  I mean, like you said...
[02:55:39]  You think Anna Kastarian wanted money?
[02:55:41]  She said as much, as far as I know, in the past, on TYT. She said she would make more money by being not leftist?
[02:55:47]  I don't know if she said that.
[02:55:48]  But I know that on her show, on TYT, she's complained about not making money.
[02:55:56]  I don't know why she's...
[02:55:58]  She's still on TYT. Like, aren't they going to lose members who are progressives?
[02:56:02]  I've got to be honest with you.
[02:56:03]  I don't really pay that much attention to, like, showbiz.
[02:56:06]  Well, so outside of her, why are there so many people?
[02:56:08]  Like, you had the meme from Colin Wright where it shows the left going all the way to the far left and liberals being like, what's happening?
[02:56:14]  I don't know who Colin Wright is.
[02:56:16]  Sure.
[02:56:17]  There's many prominent personalities who used to be liberals and now identify as moderates or disaffected liberals or post-liberal.
[02:56:25]  You're saying a substantial amount to sway an election?
[02:56:30]  Elon Musk?
[02:56:31]  Mark Zuckerberg?
[02:56:33]  I'm not going to call them progressives.
[02:56:35]  Why are billionaires becoming conservatives?
[02:56:38]  I didn't say they're becoming conservatives.
[02:56:40]  Why are billionaires who are previously supporting Democrat politicians now aligning with?
[02:56:47]  Well, I would say, I mean, when you're talking about Zuckerberg or Elon Musk, I would say Lena Kahn, head of the FTC. I would say John Cantor at the DOJ antitrust.
[02:57:02]  I agree with you, absolutely.
[02:57:06]  Money is threatened by any type of sort of liberal stuff.
[02:57:12]  But why did they support Democrats before?
[02:57:15]  Why did they?
[02:57:16]  Because I think the Democrats went through a period of neoliberalism and Joe Biden, frankly, ended that.
[02:57:23]  There's a ton of never-Trumpers in the Republican Party.
[02:57:26]  I agree.
[02:57:26]  I don't necessarily want them to influence our policy.
[02:57:29]  I completely agree with you on that.
[02:57:31]  I disagree with your assessment.
[02:57:32]  You're just looking at Dave Rubin and Anna Kasparian as some type of measure of stuff.
[02:57:36]  But you've got people like Eric Weinstein, for instance, who says the craziness primarily coming from the left.
[02:57:42]  Well, you can laugh at them all you want, but I'm curious.
[02:57:44]  I do laugh at him.
[02:57:45]  I think he's ridiculous.
[02:57:47]  The guy who works for Peter Thiel?
[02:57:49]  Yeah.
[02:57:50]  The CEFO of Peter Thiel.
[02:57:53]  Okay, Brett Weinstein.
[02:57:56]  Evolutionary biologist.
[02:57:57]  The evolutionary biologist.
[02:57:59]  The guy who was mad about pronouns?
[02:58:01]  Yeah.
[02:58:01]  That's not him.
[02:58:02]  No, that's Jordan Peterson.
[02:58:03]  Oh, I get confused on which...
[02:58:05]  Brett Weinstein was the professor who got ousted from a university over, I think it was a racial disparity.
[02:58:12]  Oh, he's the anti-vaxxer guy.
[02:58:14]  No.
[02:58:15]  Yeah.
[02:58:16]  The COVID pandemic, the one who's with his wife.
[02:58:19]  He does a show, right?
[02:58:20]  Well, I don't know if that's...
[02:58:22]  Oh, yeah.
[02:58:22]  I'm speaking specifically...
[02:58:24]  Well, I've seen this guy.
[02:58:24]  He's completely insane.
[02:58:25]  Sure, sure.
[02:58:26]  So what makes you...
[02:58:27]  What do you think happens for him specifically, going back to when he was a university in the Pacific Northwest?
[02:58:34]  Or...
[02:58:35]  Do you want me to make some type of generalization about one guy who's now...
[02:58:40]  No, I've named several and I keep naming them, but it's like I just don't...
[02:58:43]  You've named five YouTubers.
[02:58:45]  Nick Christopherson.
[02:58:47]  What's his name?
[02:58:48]  Nick Christakis.
[02:58:50]  I don't know who that is.
[02:58:51]  Well, I... Look, man, you're naming five people to me and attributing it to some white mass.
[02:58:58]  Why do you think there is a trope that people are leaving the left?
[02:59:01]  Why did C-SPAN have a segment where people called in saying they're quitting the Democratic Party?
[02:59:04]  The left has gone nuts.
[02:59:07]  I, I, I, I, I, there are clicks.
[02:59:10]  Are you asking me, do I think that there is a, are you asking me, do I think that there is a movement away?
[02:59:18]  You can just say money.
[02:59:18]  I mean, I was fine with that answer.
[02:59:20]  Well, I'm not even sure I understand.
[02:59:22]  I mean, I can say in those specific instances, but I'm not even sure that that's a phenomenon, to be honest with you.
[02:59:28]  I think this country has moved to the left significantly.
[02:59:31]  I can tell you, like even at Occupy, there was no ideological sort of cohesion in Occupy.
[02:59:39]  I think relative, like the idea that Bernie Sanders could be a senator.
[02:59:43]  I interviewed Bernie Sanders in 2004.
[02:59:45]  Maybe it's just because I have a longer timeline.
[02:59:49]  But I interviewed Bernie Sanders in 2004 when he was a congressman from Vermont.
[02:59:54]  And I remember saying like, You know, if we could get, you know, 200 Bernie Sanders, that would be amazing.
[03:00:02]  But like I was like, this guy is going to be a backbencher his entire career.
[03:00:06]  And the idea that, you know, 12 years later, he nearly wins the Democratic nomination was is a huge indication of a move to the left.
[03:00:18]  What do you think it would mean if Trump wins the popular vote?
[03:00:23]  I would be shocked.
[03:00:25]  But it would mean that there are more people who voted for Trump.
[03:00:33]  But you don't think it's indicative of any kind of national mandate, like, world view?
[03:00:39]  What would you say Donald Trump's ideology is?
[03:00:43]  Trumpism.
[03:00:43]  Right.
[03:00:44]  There's got to be a new word for it.
[03:00:45]  Right.
[03:00:45]  People like to say fascism or whatever, but these are just archaic terms.
[03:00:49]  I mean, my biggest worry about Donald Trump is the Republican Party, but that's submerged, I think, for most people's voting.
[03:00:55]  Your average person voting, they're just making a difference, a choice between two personalities, largely.
[03:01:01]  So I would say that that is not indicative of an ideological shift as much as it is an aesthetic one.
[03:01:08]  I think there's a...
[03:01:09]  RCP has Trump up 0.3.
[03:01:11]  I don't know if it means anything.
[03:01:12]  2020, Biden was up 8.
[03:01:15]  Some say that RCP is no good because they like to use Rasmussen, but I would just say that...
[03:01:19]  We don't need to argue about polls because we're going to know in four days.
[03:01:22]  Right, right, right.
[03:01:23]  It's just...
[03:01:24]  It's trending towards...
[03:01:27]  In all of the data and prediction models at Trump's popular vote.
[03:01:30]  Listen, for every RCP thing that you can say, I can come up with a significant amount of data that shows that there's reason to believe that the pollsters are overcorrecting from mistakes that they've made in the past.
[03:01:43]  So I would say, you know...
[03:01:45]  And polymarket is a prediction market, which means Trump might win by.1, but they're showing 65.
[03:01:50]  It doesn't mean anything.
[03:01:51]  Yes, it's also, you know, there was just a report that there's a ton of, like, you know, sort of fake money going in there.

=== Thanks Hanging On (01:31) ===

[03:01:57]  It's an offshore thing that is owned by Peter Thiel.
[03:02:01]  French guy.
[03:02:01]  French guy put in $30 million, I think.
[03:02:03]  Yeah, I mean, I think it's, there's...
[03:02:06]  People feel that there is value in creating that sense that maybe it's a foregone conclusion.
[03:02:12]  I personally think that a lot of it is about Trump trying to gin up what you talked about earlier, a January 6 response.
[03:02:19]  If he loses by creating the expectation that he's definitely going to win, and I think it's going to be close, but I don't think that it's in any way close to even being a foregone conclusion about either one of them.
[03:02:31]  Completely agree.
[03:02:32]  I have no idea what's going to happen.
[03:02:33]  Everybody thinks they know I learned my lesson.
[03:02:35]  Sam, I do appreciate you coming on.
[03:02:36]  This has been fun.
[03:02:37]  We went an extra hour.
[03:02:38]  Thanks for hanging out.
[03:02:39]  I hope I get my plane.
[03:02:40]  Sorry, man.
[03:02:40]  I apologize.
[03:02:41]  We'll be back tonight at youtube.com slash timcast.irl if you want to shout anything out.
[03:02:45]  Wear that hat.
[03:02:47]  I will put it up.
[03:02:48]  That 20th anniversary majority report hat is available at our merchandise store.
[03:02:57]  I wanted to invite you to come on the show tonight, but I know you've got to fly out.
[03:03:00]  I've got to fly out.
[03:03:01]  I've got to get my kid.
[03:03:02]  I appreciate you coming on, man.
[03:03:03]  Thanks for hanging out.
[03:03:03]  And for everybody else, I hope you had a good time.
[03:03:06]  I hope everybody got their clips in and they're going to argue who was better.
[03:03:09]  All your fans will say you did, all my fans will say I did, and then, you know, whatever.
[03:03:12]  I think some of your fans will say I did, too.
[03:03:15]  I don't know.
[03:03:16]  I think we're too partisan.
[03:03:18]  I think people are going to be like, it doesn't matter if Sam has a good idea.
[03:03:21]  He's wrong.
[03:03:21]  You know what I mean?
[03:03:22]  Well, I'll give him some more credit than that.
[03:03:24]  They say you had some good points for sure.
[03:03:26]  We got a lot of moderates.
[03:03:27]  All right, man.
[03:03:27]  Thanks for hanging out.
[03:03:28]  We'll see you guys tonight.