CSPAN - Washington Journal Elise Labott
Aired: 2026-03-28
Duration: 40:59


=== Growing Up at Fenway (05:35) ===

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[00:00:24]  C-SPAN, Democracy Unfiltered.
[00:00:31]  C-SPAN, official media partner of America 250, commemorating 250 years of American democracy.
[00:00:38]  America 250 is traveling the country to honor the voices that define our nation.
[00:00:43]  Stories of identity, service, and community.
[00:00:45]  Here's one of them.
[00:00:53]  That's the program cover in 1912 when Fundmade Park first opened up.
[00:01:00]  Fenway Park, Red Sox.
[00:01:10]  Good.
[00:01:10]  My name is Joseph Almeder, tour guide.
[00:01:13]  I've been working at Fenway Park for about 14 years, and this is my American story.
[00:01:23]  I was born in Warwick, Rhode Island, which is not too far away from here.
[00:01:27]  And one thing about the Red Sox is they had a huge fan base all over New England.
[00:01:32]  I always listened for the Red Sox on the radio.
[00:01:35]  That's where my passion for the Red Sox started.
[00:01:39]  So when you came to a ballpark, you saw players in living color.
[00:01:44]  I remember seeing the Boston Red Sox with their magnificent white uniforms.
[00:01:49]  I had never seen that before.
[00:01:51]  This emerald green grass.
[00:01:56]  I've been coming to Fenway Park since I was nine years old, so that's many, many decades.
[00:02:02]  I remember the very first time coming into this ballpark and being in awe of all the great players here, in particular the great Ted Williams.
[00:02:12]  To be walking on the same turf as Ted Williams is quite an exciting experience.
[00:02:18]  And here comes Ted Williams.
[00:02:19]  And high in the air, deep to right.
[00:02:21]  Going back, back.
[00:02:27]  230 feet wide, 37 feet high.
[00:02:32]  The green monster.
[00:02:36]  Let's go inside the wall here, see what it looks like.
[00:02:46]  Lots of times baseball players will come here and they'll put their autograph inside the wall.
[00:02:52]  It was kind of part of the fun of coming to Fenway Park for the first time and putting your signature inside the scoreboard.
[00:02:59]  What makes Fenway Park to me so interesting is all the history.
[00:03:03]  Fenway Park built in 1912 and Wrigley Field in Chicago 1914.
[00:03:09]  Those are the remaining vintage ballparks and that's where all the charm is.
[00:03:15]  Fenway Park for me is part of growing up.
[00:03:19]  It's part of the magic of living in New England and having the Boston Red Sox as the number one thing that you're watching and hoping that the Red Sox will be in contention for postseason.
[00:03:31]  And kind of the way it works is if your dreams haven't come true, there's always next year.
[00:03:38]  And for many, many years was wait till next year because the Red Sox sold Babe Ruth to New York Yankees in 1919 and they had an 86-year-old waiting time between the next World Series.
[00:03:53]  So that's part of the that's part of the fun of Fenway Park.
[00:03:59]  One thing about baseball is for many, many people, it kind of enables you to create an identity.
[00:04:07]  My parents were born in Portugal.
[00:04:09]  English was really not my first language.
[00:04:12]  So one thing baseball enabled me to do, I was able to intermingle with neighbors and friends.
[00:04:18]  They didn't really care, know where you came from.
[00:04:21]  Can you play baseball?
[00:04:23]  So that's part of the essence of America.
[00:04:25]  You know, we all come together as one and we fight together and we play together.
[00:04:31]  That's the essence of sports.
[00:04:33]  And that's what makes baseball, in my mind, America's favorite game.
[00:04:39]  My parents came here.
[00:04:46]  They were blue-collar workers.
[00:04:48]  Their whole emphasis was to make life better for them and their children.
[00:04:53]  So that was America's dream.
[00:04:58]  There's a movie called Field of Dreams.
[00:05:00]  Is this heaven?
[00:05:02]  And this was heaven for me here at Fenway Park.
[00:05:23]  We'll be live shortly from Grapevine, Texas, where the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, is holding their spring meeting.
[00:05:31]  Scheduled speakers include Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.

=== Control of the Strait (14:53) ===

[00:05:35]  We'll get you there live when the program begins.
[00:05:40]  Welcome back to Washington Journal.
[00:05:42]  Joined now by Elise Labbitt, Cosmopolitics Substack founder and a global affairs journalist.
[00:05:47]  Elise, welcome back.
[00:05:48]  Good to be with you again.
[00:05:49]  So tomorrow is one month since the beginning of the U.S. operations against Iran.
[00:05:55]  Where are we now as compared to day one?
[00:05:58]  Well, a couple of things.
[00:06:00]  First of all, the U.S. and Israel have made spectacular, I would say, success in terms of the targets they went after, which are the Iranian missiles, the depots, the weapons cachets, certainly going after a lot of the leadership of the regime, the Israelis, that is, and hitting close to 10,000 targets.
[00:06:24]  So they've been degrading the Iranian weapons capability and also some of their nuclear capability.
[00:06:32]  However, Iran is still proving resilient.
[00:06:35]  Not only what they're doing now is they're reserving missiles to be very strategic with them, but they're also using drones, which are low-cost, very effective, and harder to shoot down.
[00:06:47]  So the Iranians are proving to be still in the game.
[00:06:51]  And everyone has seen that they've closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world's oil goes through.
[00:06:59]  A lot of shipping goes through.
[00:07:01]  And so they've really grinded the oil market to a halt, shipping to a halt, and as we've seen, gone after the Gulf.
[00:07:10]  So even as the U.S. continues with Israel to degrade Iran's weapons capability and ability to wreak havoc, they're still wreaking havoc.
[00:07:22]  So the war is not over and it's not finished no matter what president.
[00:07:26]  I do want to talk about the Strait of Hormuz, but talk first about that attack in Saudi Arabia that injured U.S. troops.
[00:07:33]  Well, we've seen that part of Iran's strategy is not only to go after Israeli and U.S. targets in the region, but the Gulf.
[00:07:40]  Why is that?
[00:07:41]  To show that they can cause pain throughout the whole region.
[00:07:45]  And really, this is about the global economy and grinding it to a halt and causing pain not only for the Gulf allies, but putting pressure on the U.S.
[00:07:56]  And by hitting the Gulf allies, they were expecting Gulf allies to come and put pressure on the U.S. to end the war.
[00:08:04]  That has not happened.
[00:08:04]  I think it's a real miscalculation on the Iranians' part.
[00:08:07]  It's only driven those Gulf allies closer together.
[00:08:11]  So, you know, for the most part, they've avoided hitting Saudi Arabia.
[00:08:16]  Last night, there was an attack on a U.S. airbase in Saudi Arabia, Prince South Sultan Air Base.
[00:08:24]  About 10 service members were injured, at least two seriously.
[00:08:31]  And this is really the first big attack on Saudi Arabia.
[00:08:34]  Most of the attacks have been on the UAE, some on Qatar, some on Bahrain.
[00:08:39]  So what is Saudi Arabia thinking right now?
[00:08:42]  Well, originally, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the others were saying they didn't want this war because they knew they would have blessed.
[00:08:49]  But Saudi Arabia wanted the war.
[00:08:51]  No, they didn't.
[00:08:51]  They were saying the head of the snake.
[00:08:53]  Well, remember that?
[00:08:54]  I do remember.
[00:08:55]  Okay, so this was years ago.
[00:08:57]  The old king Abdullah said, cut the head off the snake.
[00:09:01]  They did cut the head off the snake, right?
[00:09:03]  They killed the supreme leader.
[00:09:06]  But you don't know what's, I think a couple of weeks ago, we said, we don't know what's going to grow back in that head, right?
[00:09:11]  It could be more dangerous.
[00:09:13]  What the Saudis said originally is that the defense minister came here and said to, and what Prince, what Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had said, is, here are your various scenarios.
[00:09:26]  If you're going to go and use military action, and we're not advocating that you do, but if you do, you have to go all the way.
[00:09:34]  You can't, as you say, be half pregnant on this, right?
[00:09:38]  And so now the Saudis are saying, okay, you're in.
[00:09:42]  You have to be all in.
[00:09:43]  You have to finish the job.
[00:09:44]  And I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Saudis get in.
[00:09:49]  And the Saudis have been shooting a lot of missiles down, working with the Gulf allies in defense.
[00:09:56]  I would not be surprised now if the Saudis join.
[00:10:01]  If you have a question for Elise Labbitt, you can go ahead and give us a call now.
[00:10:05]  It's 202748-8000 for Democrats, 202-748-8001 for Republicans, and 202748-8002 for independents.
[00:10:14]  Let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz, still closed.
[00:10:17]  Still closed.
[00:10:18]  And President Trump has extended his ultimatum until April 6th.
[00:10:24]  That's right.
[00:10:25]  Where do things stand, and are we any closer to getting oil flowing through that strait?
[00:10:31]  We're not any closer.
[00:10:33]  You know, the president says negotiations are going well.
[00:10:36]  The Iranians say there are no negotiations.
[00:10:38]  I think what we could say is there are indirect talks going on.
[00:10:43]  Countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar are kind of being intermediaries between the Iranians and the United States, putting proposals.
[00:10:52]  We heard about this 15-point proposal by President Trump that he sent to the Iranians.
[00:10:57]  Essentially, Mimi, unconditional surrender.
[00:11:00]  Give up everything, stop the war, give up all your nuclear material, cut support for proxies.
[00:11:07]  And the Iranians are saying, look, we have the enemy, as I say, and this is what we want.
[00:11:12]  They gave five points, which is basically pay us for all the damage that you did, stop the war, give us control over the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:11:21]  So you can see how far apart those two sides are.
[00:11:25]  And listen, Iran is continuing to be degraded, but you can see how it still is able to cause havoc by closing off the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:11:33]  One thing that we saw very interesting is that the Houthis, this proxy in Yemen, supported this Iranian proxy last night or yesterday, launched a missile towards Iran.
[00:11:46]  Now, you remember.
[00:11:47]  Towards Israel.
[00:11:48]  Towards Israel.
[00:11:49]  Sorry.
[00:11:49]  After October 7th, the Houthis were very active.
[00:11:54]  And the Israelis and the United States, they were threatening to close off the Red Sea and make a lot of damage.
[00:12:00]  And the Israelis and the U.S. really hit them hard.
[00:12:03]  And so they've kind of been laying low since this war began.
[00:12:07]  So what do you make of them now getting into this?
[00:12:10]  It could be two things: that the Iranians kind of held them strategically for now, or they were really damaged after October 7th, and so they wanted to keep their powder dry until they were really needed.
[00:12:24]  And what they're threatening to do now is close off this alternative shipping route and oil route that the Saudis use a lot, which is the Babel-Mindab Strait.
[00:12:35]  And that, if you close off the Strait of Hormuz and you close off this area, that's really kind of choking the oil market and shipping and really the global economy.
[00:12:48]  You know, I heard an analyst say that essentially from now on, Iran is going to use the Strait of Hormuz as a giant toll booth and just milk it because now they realize how much power they have over global markets and say, look, anybody that goes through is going to have to pay us handsomely.
[00:13:05]  Well, they're doing it right now.
[00:13:06]  They've let some ships go.
[00:13:08]  President Trump said it was a big present for him, but it was a present for the Iranians because, you know, they're letting Chinese go through or Malaysian go through.
[00:13:18]  You know, these countries need the oil and are willing to pay.
[00:13:22]  And this is what, listen, the Iranians have always said, you know, want to go to war.
[00:13:27]  We're going to close off the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:13:29]  They've always used this as a card.
[00:13:31]  This wasn't a surprise.
[00:13:32]  Not a surprise.
[00:13:33]  And now they're using that card.
[00:13:35]  And this is why in that kind of counter-proposal, if you will, you have to recognize that we have control of the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:13:42]  President Trump said in his vision that him and the Ayatollah will control it jointly.
[00:13:51]  I don't think the Iranians see it that way.
[00:13:54]  Let's talk to callers.
[00:13:55]  We'll start with Cliff, Tulsa, Oklahoma, Independent Line.
[00:13:58]  Good morning, Cliff.
[00:13:59]  So how long we think this is going to last?
[00:14:01]  Months, weeks, days?
[00:14:03]  Or is this going to be kind of like the other war that just go on and on forever?
[00:14:08]  Cliff, it's a great question.
[00:14:10]  You know, the president originally said four to six weeks.
[00:14:13]  We're in about four weeks now.
[00:14:15]  So anybody that says we're failing or we're winning, we still have about two weeks to see where we are.
[00:14:22]  And I think the Iranians are going to be continually be degraded.
[00:14:28]  In two weeks, the U.S. and Israel can do a lot more damage.
[00:14:32]  You can see Iran is using its missiles sparingly, and it already seems to be running out of missiles.
[00:14:37]  Now it's using drones, which are proving more effective, but they still have the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:14:44]  This is really right now what's very important.
[00:14:47]  And so you see thousands of troops headed to the area, Cliff.
[00:14:52]  Maybe as many as 17,000 troops could be on the way, and this could be...
[00:14:58]  What are we supposed to do with all those troops?
[00:14:59]  I think it's still not like what we saw in Iraq, 150,000 troops for a ground invasion.
[00:15:07]  But the suspicion is that this is to take Karg.
[00:15:11]  And sources that I've spoken to that are informed say this is for Karg Island.
[00:15:16]  This is what the Iranians are using to kind of choke off the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:15:21]  And that's where all their oil depots are, where they hold all of their oil.
[00:15:25]  So if the U.S. has a small expeditionary force to hold the Strait of Hormuz, that really takes away a lot of the Iranian leverage.
[00:15:36]  So I would say, Cliff, a couple more weeks at, at best, but if you're going to take Karg Island, then if you're going to try and get that Iranian Enriched uranium, which is fissile material used to make a nuclear weapon, those troops could also be used for that.
[00:15:58]  But that's going to be a ground invasion of Iran itself.
[00:16:01]  But a small one.
[00:16:03]  But yes, is right in the middle?
[00:16:05]  Yes, but you know what, basically, what the U.S. has now is pretty much air superiority.
[00:16:12]  And what generals are saying is you could kind of create like a little bubble around the U.S. forces while they go in for that material.
[00:16:19]  That's not an easy feat.
[00:16:21]  That is boots on the ground.
[00:16:23]  I think when we think of boots, we think 20,000, 30,000 troops.
[00:16:27]  It would be a small force, but it wouldn't be easy.
[00:16:29]  It would be boots on the ground, and it could take days to a couple of weeks.
[00:16:34]  So, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the other day, it's weeks, not months.
[00:16:40]  I would say, you know, somewhere between three weeks to a month at best.
[00:16:46]  So, let's hear from Senator Sorry, Secretary Marco Rubio, what he said in France talking to reporters about that.
[00:16:55]  We had really good meetings.
[00:16:56]  I mean, obviously, it was an opportunity to talk to our allies on the G7 and outline the perspective of what we have going on with Iran.
[00:17:04]  We talked about a lot of things, but obviously, in the Iran operation, and we're very clear, as we've been from the very beginning, the objectives of this mission have been clear from the very first night the president announced it.
[00:17:13]  We're going to destroy Iran's Navy.
[00:17:15]  We've destroyed their Air Force.
[00:17:17]  We are going to basically destroy their ability to make missiles and drones in their factories.
[00:17:22]  And we're going to substantially, and I mean, dramatically, reduce the number of missile launchers so that they cannot hide behind these things to build a nuclear weapon and threaten the world.
[00:17:30]  As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are on or ahead of schedule on that operation and expect to conclude it at the appropriate time here.
[00:17:39]  In a matter of weeks, not months.
[00:17:40]  And the progress is going very well.
[00:17:42]  Obviously, we have some work to do.
[00:17:43]  We have to finish the job, and we are finishing that job.
[00:17:48]  What do you think of that, Elise?
[00:17:49]  Well, you know, he said a lot of things.
[00:17:51]  He said, I don't think ground troops are necessary.
[00:17:54]  I think that if you want to reach all of your objectives, which is getting that nuclear material, you can't do it from the air.
[00:18:03]  So, unless the Iranians are going to dig it up and hand it over to us, which looks unless there's a deal and they agree to do that, you would have to have troops on the ground, or you say, I'm not going to get it.
[00:18:15]  Let's talk to Guy, Gwyn Oak, Maryland, Democrat.
[00:18:19]  You're on the air.
[00:18:20]  Oh, yes, how are you doing?
[00:18:22]  I want to ask your guests concerning the girls' school that was hit.
[00:18:28]  Do you really believe that those families over there are going to forget that?
[00:18:33]  This war is going to continue.
[00:18:35]  You can't bomb your way out of a religious war.
[00:18:38]  This is what those people believe.
[00:18:41]  And bombs are not going to settle it.
[00:18:43]  There are no winners in war.
[00:18:45]  There's just losers and losers.
[00:18:47]  It's just a basis point of who loses the most.
[00:18:51]  But in war, there are no winners.
[00:18:53]  Everybody lose.
[00:18:55]  Well, you have a very good point.
[00:18:58]  In war, there are no winners.
[00:18:59]  Everyone is kind of losing in this war in terms of the loss of life, the loss of resources.
[00:19:07]  Even Americans are feeling it.
[00:19:09]  But these families, you're right.
[00:19:12]  I would say the regime has this religious war, this Islamic, the revolutionary system, which is the Islamic Republic.
[00:19:22]  These families are innocent victims.
[00:19:25]  And most of them, I would say the majority of Iranians, at least 80%, are not supportive of this Islamic regime.
[00:19:36]  And it does remain to be seen who they blame at the end of this.
[00:19:40]  A lot of times war rallies people around the flag, if you will, and encourage nationalism.
[00:19:48]  I don't know that that's going to be the case here because the majority of the Iranian public has been against the regime.
[00:19:58]  There's been protests.
[00:19:59]  They've risen up.
[00:19:59]  Thousands, tens of thousands of people have been killed.
[00:20:03]  I will say, though, that the late Ayatollah, the first Ayatollah, Alato Ayatollah Khomeini, had said that the Iran-Iraq war was a gift to Iran.
[00:20:16]  Why?
[00:20:16]  Because it increased like rallying around the flag and strengthened the regime.
[00:20:21]  So it'll be interesting to see what the regime says now.
[00:20:24]  Is this war a gift to them?
[00:20:26]  I don't think it's going to be a gift to them.

=== Nuclear Last Case Scenario (15:34) ===

[00:20:29]  Kathleen, Rutland, Ohio, Independent.
[00:20:31]  Good morning.
[00:20:33]  Good morning.
[00:20:34]  I want to encourage first the public to start listening to Judging Freedom with Judge Napolitano.
[00:20:43]  He used to be on Fox News.
[00:20:44]  And I'll ask her a question, but they're having people like Colonel Wilkerson on, who was under the Bush administration.
[00:20:51]  They're having the former weapons inspector in Iraq, Scott Ritter, on regularly, which C-SPAN or Washington Journal had on many times in the past, but I'm not sure why you guys aren't having him on now.
[00:21:02]  And former CIA Middle East analyst Ray McGovern, who told the truth prior to the invasion of Iraq.
[00:21:09]  But so I want to encourage you guys to have some other guests on who aren't so pro-war like this lady.
[00:21:16]  She just said, you know, Iran is causing havoc or wreaking havoc.
[00:21:22]  I mean, that's all a matter of perspective because many of us believe that Israel and the U.S. are wreaking havoc in that part of the world.
[00:21:30]  Many well-informed and people within the governments have said that Iran was no imminent threat, including Rubio said that.
[00:21:41]  So I want to ask this guest, we know that Israel has nuclear weapons.
[00:21:46]  Iran does not.
[00:21:48]  So I want to ask her, because a lot of these way more well-informed and on the inside experts have said that Israel is highly likely to use nuclear weapons, as well as why are we not getting information on the damage done in Israel?
[00:22:07]  And I want to make a comment about Joe from Dayton earlier saying that the people who will be at the Indivisible rallies today are paid.
[00:22:16]  That is utterly ridiculous.
[00:22:18]  And so let's get to an answer on that.
[00:22:21]  Okay, a lot to unpack there, Kathleen.
[00:22:23]  Thanks for your call.
[00:22:24]  I wouldn't say I'm pro-war.
[00:22:26]  I think I'm trying to just kind of lay out the calculus of both the U.S. and the Iranians.
[00:22:32]  I know Colonel Wilkerson.
[00:22:34]  I was at the State Department during that war and knew him working with Kohler Powell and Scott Ritter as well.
[00:22:41]  I don't know CIA General McGovern.
[00:22:46]  It is true that Israel does have nuclear weapons.
[00:22:49]  We don't talk about it that much.
[00:22:52]  But I think it's pretty well documented that Israel does have a nuclear arsenal.
[00:22:59]  I don't know that they would use it.
[00:23:01]  I think people consider nuclear weapons as a kind of a last case scenario.
[00:23:08]  And in terms of Iran, I think agree that the word imminent is what people are getting on right now.
[00:23:18]  What the Trump administration is saying is that the threat would be that they were about to build it, and I think that's negligible.
[00:23:30]  But they were trying to prevent Iran from coming together and get a nuclear weapon.
[00:23:34]  And that's why I said earlier, if they don't go for that nuclear material, then you're not really ending what they say Is the main question here about preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon?
[00:23:48]  And, you know, we know that Iran has enough material to build it.
[00:23:52]  They haven't been able to what we call weaponize, which is fit a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.
[00:24:00]  So they are a ways away, but estimates do say they could, they do have enough material probably within a couple of months or something to build a bomb.
[00:24:11]  So, you know, yes, you need to see where this goes and whether the U.S. is really going to get rid of that nuclear fissile material.
[00:24:21]  Jay is up next in Raleigh, North Carolina.
[00:24:23]  Republican, go ahead, Jay.
[00:24:26]  Good morning.
[00:24:27]  My question is: I have a question, then I'd like to make the comment.
[00:24:31]  My question is: the oil tankers that seem to be coming out that Iran is shipping out, why would we not seize them once they come through the strait and cut off their money-making machine?
[00:24:43]  That I don't quite understand.
[00:24:45]  And then my comment is: Mr. President, finish this job.
[00:24:49]  Don't leave it for my three and a half-year-old grandson.
[00:24:52]  And number two, set your side on the Panama Canal before we have a conflict and have to do that during a stressful time.
[00:24:59]  Thank you.
[00:25:01]  Well, thanks, Jay.
[00:25:02]  I mean, that's what really kind of hits home.
[00:25:05]  Like, you don't, you know, President Trump said that he didn't want to have forever wars, right?
[00:25:10]  And when we were in Iraq the first time or Afghanistan, that was 20 years, and that would put Jay's grandson kind of squarely in.
[00:25:17]  So I think the U.S. doesn't want another forever war.
[00:25:21]  You know, you hear Secretary Rubio, the president, it's almost finished.
[00:25:25]  We don't know if it's almost finished, but they're not talking about years long.
[00:25:30]  On those oil tankers, that's a great question, Jay.
[00:25:33]  Why they're not seizing them after they come out.
[00:25:35]  Those are international waters, and I think the U.S. probably doesn't want to get into that, you know, kind of international water.
[00:25:43]  You know, not necessarily Iranian territory.
[00:25:46]  But it is a good question.
[00:25:47]  But that president had lifted sanctions.
[00:25:50]  Explain that on Iranian oil.
[00:25:52]  Okay, Raleigh.
[00:25:53]  It is like a, you know, it's complete antithetical to what the goals are, right?
[00:25:59]  And what the president says is, okay, well, that oil was headed directly for China.
[00:26:05]  Now we're putting it on the oil market, and everyone will get it, and it'll ease up oil prices.
[00:26:10]  Listen, and they also lifted sanctions on Russian oil.
[00:26:13]  And so now we were trying to end the war in Ukraine, and the Russians are getting additional money from their oil, lifting sanctions so they can continue to fight Ukraine.
[00:26:23]  So all of the things that the administration says they're trying to do in terms of squeezing these countries isn't really happening.
[00:26:30]  And the Panama Canal, something to watch, Jay.
[00:26:33]  The administration has been saying, and you see what happened with Venezuela and the region, the U.S. is much more active.
[00:26:41]  And the president has spoken about the Panama Canal before.
[00:26:45]  On the line for Democrats, Kenneth in Columbus, Georgia, you're on the air.
[00:26:51]  Good morning.
[00:26:52]  I think the real issue that we have is that we don't want a forever war, but this is exactly what we have.
[00:27:03]  We got Iran that is basically going to be the same as Iraq.
[00:27:09]  We've got to have boots on the ground.
[00:27:12]  There's no way that we can find out if Iran has any nuclear forces that would be able to be taken away from them if we don't have boots on the ground.
[00:27:25]  That means not 20,000, but maybe even 100,000 people.
[00:27:31]  Which brings up my point is that what's going to happen is Once we get boots on the ground, gas is going to go up.
[00:27:46]  We're going to have casualties.
[00:27:48]  And that means that we're going to have a lot more people who are going to go stop this madness.
[00:27:56]  That's my comment.
[00:27:58]  Thanks, Kenneth.
[00:28:00]  I don't think we're looking at a 20-year war like we were with Iraq, because the administration is very clear that it doesn't want what we call nation-building, right?
[00:28:10]  Which is part of the reason that the U.S. stayed in Afghanistan, stayed in Iraq, was to try and help shape what came after.
[00:28:18]  And that was what took so long.
[00:28:21]  I think Iran is going to be significantly more degraded in the next few weeks.
[00:28:25]  The goal, I think, is to really squeeze the Iranians so hard that they have to make some kind of a deal.
[00:28:32]  And, you know, even though there are people that say that President Trump is eager to see this through, I think what he's trying to do right now is still create a lot of leverage.
[00:28:41]  But Kenneth is right that you're not going to be able to get the nuclear material without putting some kind of forces on the ground.
[00:28:50]  I don't think we're looking at 100,000, Kenneth, from what people are saying, military experts.
[00:28:58]  You know, they're putting about, they're sending about 17,000 to the region.
[00:29:02]  I think you're looking probably more in the area of 20,000 troops.
[00:29:06]  But still, that's a lot of troops.
[00:29:08]  I mean, you know, it's a lot.
[00:29:10]  It's not like a team of 10 people going down there and digging it up.
[00:29:13]  It would be a big job.
[00:29:15]  And can Iran just continue to make these cheap drones?
[00:29:19]  I mean, they are, as you said, they're very lethal and they're easy to make.
[00:29:24]  They're easy to make, they're cheap.
[00:29:25]  And that's why now the targets, there were the missiles and the interceptors, and now they're trying to go after the drones depots and the drone production facilities.
[00:29:35]  So if you can go after the production facilities, first you get rid of the drones that are available or the missiles that are available, and the drones are harder to get.
[00:29:46]  But if you can go after the facilities and then you get rid of the arsenal, that's making a significant significant damage.
[00:29:57]  And I think in a few weeks we're going to see some of those targets being hit.
[00:30:01]  Howard, Fort Lee, New Jersey, Independent, you're on the air.
[00:30:05]  Good morning.
[00:30:06]  I have a what-if question.
[00:30:09]  What if we send in about 5,000 troops to take over Carg Island and the Iranians basically take over part of Carg Island and captivate and capture 20 to 50 United States troops and start hanging them one day at a time, every day, one day at a time.
[00:30:33]  What do you think the American people would say?
[00:30:36]  That's my question.
[00:30:39]  That's a nightmare scenario.
[00:30:40]  That's a nightmare scenario.
[00:30:42]  But it could happen.
[00:30:44]  Well, I'm not a military expert, and I don't know once the U.S. takes over, if the U.S. were to take over Carg Island, you know, I think they would try to make sure that they've already started hitting some of the military facilities in Carg Island.
[00:30:58]  They haven't hit the oil, but they're going after some of the military facilities.
[00:31:04]  And so I would assume that the U.S. would actually kind of take over all superiority of the island before they put troops on the ground.
[00:31:12]  But that is a, you know, you think back to Black Hawk Down when in Somalia, when American troops were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu, like that's the image that's still in, or the American hostages, those images are still in our thoughts and in our memories, seared into our memory.
[00:31:38]  And listen, you've seen like when Israel, when one soldier is taken, remember Gilad Shalit, how much it affects the negotiation, what you're willing to negotiate.
[00:31:52]  Jerry in New Jersey, Democrat, good morning.
[00:31:56]  Good morning.
[00:31:57]  I wanted to ask you another scenario here.
[00:32:00]  I was watching on Newsmax this morning.
[00:32:02]  There was a gentleman on, and I don't know, he represents something with Iran.
[00:32:08]  He was talking about the former crown prince, and I don't know his name, I'm sorry.
[00:32:12]  Reza Pahlavi.
[00:32:14]  Okay, and he is, I think, I think Trump and them are talking, when they say they are talking to somebody, I think they're dealing with him.
[00:32:24]  And he was talking about coming back, not to take, because they want the Iranian people to vote to get the new regime in, but he was talking about coming back and rising up with the people of Iran.
[00:32:40]  So I think there is negotiations going on that we don't know about.
[00:32:45]  I think there's a lot that's going to happen in the next couple of weeks.
[00:32:49]  Do you think that that's a possibility?
[00:32:51]  That's number one.
[00:32:53]  And number two, where do you get your information?
[00:32:57]  When I hear you talk and you're bringing up all kinds of stuff, can you tell me where exactly is, are you talking to Trump's people?
[00:33:06]  Are you talking to the Pentagon?
[00:33:09]  Who are you talking to when you give us information on C-SPAN?
[00:33:14]  I appreciate that.
[00:33:15]  Thank you.
[00:33:16]  Oh, thanks, Jerry.
[00:33:17]  My former New Jersey girl, I grew up in New Jersey as well.
[00:33:22]  So first of all, when I'm talking to people, I'm talking to a lot of different sources.
[00:33:26]  I covered the State Department for 20 years, and so I have a lot of sources in and out of the government and experts.
[00:33:33]  And I talk to people in the region, diplomats.
[00:33:35]  So it's like a wide range.
[00:33:37]  And we talk to, you know, we don't here at C-SPAN look at, you know, any ideological.
[00:33:42]  We're just talking to people to get that information and give it to everybody and not really make a judgment on it either way.
[00:33:51]  So on the Reza Pahlavi, who is the son of the former Shah that was deposed by the U.S., you know, that was put in by the U.S. and that whole history of the U.S. in Iran.
[00:34:10]  He does have this kind of nostalgia, his father, for a time in Iran where things were better.
[00:34:18]  I think what he's seen as, and a lot of diaspora, Iranians that live outside of Iran, and a lot of people inside Iran, see him as maybe someone, as you said, that could be, Jerry, a bridging figure until a transitional figure if the regime were to collapse.
[00:34:39]  It's questionable how much support he has.
[00:34:43]  The administration has talked to him.
[00:34:45]  I don't think they see him as somebody who has a big constituency in the country.
[00:34:51]  Interesting enough, CPAC, the conservative conference, which will be covered on C-SPAN this weekend, he's speaking to C-SPAN to CPAC, which is kind of interesting.
[00:35:06]  The Israelis are certainly talking to him, but I'm not sure.
[00:35:10]  And I know that he's met with Steve Wyckoff and others at Mar-a-Lago.
[00:35:15]  I'm just not really sure how much the administration sees him as someone that they're ready to work with.
[00:35:23]  And I think, to be quite honest, I think that if, you know, when you want to get rid of a regime, there are two things that you could do.
[00:35:31]  You could get rid of the entire regime, which is what I think the Israelis are trying to do, or you could try and have a transition where you work with some people in the regime and try to create the conditions for eventual transition to another Venezuela model.
[00:35:50]  The only problem is this Del C Rodriguez, this Maduro deputy that is in there now, that doesn't really exist in Iran because it's not figures, it's more of a system.

=== Regime Transition Models (04:56) ===

[00:36:03]  Larry in Smyrna, Tennessee, Republican.
[00:36:07]  Hello, Larry, go ahead.
[00:36:09]  I would like to point out that the war with Iran has been going on now for 47 plus years, and they've killed thousands of Americans ever since then.
[00:36:28]  The caliphate that has taken over Iran is a radical, extremely radical version of Islam.
[00:36:42]  We are at war with this radicalism.
[00:36:49]  The people who run that caliphate in Iran are commanded in their mind, they're commanded by Mohammed and by extension, Allah, God, to kill the infidels wherever they are, whoever they are,
[00:37:19]  and they will not stop that mission.
[00:37:27]  The only way to deal with them is to kill them.
[00:37:32]  Kill them before they kill us.
[00:37:35]  All right, Larry.
[00:37:36]  Go ahead, Elise.
[00:37:37]  Well, you know, it's true.
[00:37:40]  The U.S. has been the kind of great Satan for Iran for 47 years, and they've killed thousands of Americans.
[00:37:47]  So Larry's not wrong there.
[00:37:50]  Richard, Grove City, Ohio, Independent Line, you're on the air.
[00:37:54]  Yes.
[00:37:55]  I got a real basic question.
[00:37:58]  Sometimes I think the Iranians are really stupid for citing a non-proliferation pact.
[00:38:05]  If they had a nuclear weapon and had demonstrated that they had like an underground test or something along that line, would we be doing what we're doing right now?
[00:38:18]  That's a great question.
[00:38:20]  Nobody talks about, Richard, which is you look at a country like North Korea, you know, did a test.
[00:38:29]  Is a nuclear, you know, no one wants to recognize it as a nuclear state and bring it into the nuclear group, if you will.
[00:38:36]  But no one's taking military action against North Korea.
[00:38:39]  One more call for you, and that's George in Portage, Pennsylvania, Independent Line.
[00:38:44]  Go ahead, George.
[00:38:47]  I have a question.
[00:38:49]  What do all countries that have nuclear weapons have them for?
[00:38:53]  Do they dare to use them?
[00:38:55]  No, it's for deterrence.
[00:38:57]  What do you think that Iran wants a nuclear weapon for?
[00:39:01]  I think it's deterrence, and us attacking them because they don't have one is proof of it.
[00:39:08]  That's all my comment.
[00:39:09]  Thank you.
[00:39:10]  Well, I mean, that's, you know, that's the real kind of irony of nuclear weapons, George, is that, you know, the U.S. and look at the U.S. and the USSR, the Soviet Union, and now Russia.
[00:39:23]  It's really a deterrence.
[00:39:26]  And the responsible nuclear states, yes, it is deterrence.
[00:39:30]  And a lot of people think that all states, would they really use it?
[00:39:35]  Although Russia has threatened to use it recently during this war in Ukraine.
[00:39:41]  The question has always been whether Iran wanted to use it or wanted to have what they call this nuclear umbrella that gave them the deterrence to be able to do whatever they else wanted in the region.
[00:39:52]  I don't really know if they would use it, but I will say that it's a good point that going after them almost like kind of encourages you to go.
[00:40:02]  A lot of people think that now that Iran's going to rush to make a nuclear weapon, look at what happened to Libya.
[00:40:07]  Libya gave up all of its nuclear weapons.
[00:40:10]  The U.S. took them out and all of its material.
[00:40:13]  The U.S. took it out of Libya.
[00:40:14]  And then the regime was toppled anyway.
[00:40:16]  So, you know, for rogue states, the message is you need a nuclear weapon.
[00:40:21]  And that's like, you know, the big irony of nuclear weapons.
[00:40:24]  George nailed it.
[00:40:25]  All right, Elise Labbitt, Cosmopolitics Substack, founder and global affairs journalist.
[00:40:30]  Thank you so much for joining us.
[00:40:31]  Good to be with you.
[00:40:32]  We'll be live shortly from Grapevine, Texas, where the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, is holding their spring meeting.
[00:40:40]  Scheduled speakers include Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.
[00:40:44]  We'll get you there live when the program begins.
[00:40:49]  And this is a live picture from Florida, where the Artemis II mission is preparing to launch next week for a lunar flyby.
[00:40:56]  There will be a pair of mission briefings tomorrow that we plan to bring you live.