CSPAN - Washington Journal Tom Bevan
Aired: 2026-02-28
Duration: 48:56


=== Numbers Speak Loudest (14:45) ===

[00:00:03]  But even with 2020 hindsight, I saw nothing that ever gave me real pause.
[00:00:09]  We're only here today because Epstein hid it from everyone so well for so long.
[00:00:14]  And by the time it came to light with his 2008 guilty plea, I had long stopped associating with it.
[00:00:22]  When the video of my testimony today is released, I hope it will motivate everyone to go in front of Congress to say what they know.
[00:00:31]  I hope it will motivate the Justice Department to finally release all the files and to ensure that this never happens again.
[00:00:41]  the survivors deserve that democracy is always an unfinished creation Democracy is worth dying for.
[00:00:55]  Democracy belongs to us all.
[00:00:58]  We are here in the sanctuary of democracy.
[00:01:00]  Great responsibilities fall once again to the great democracies.
[00:01:05]  American democracy is bigger than any one person.
[00:01:08]  Freedom and democracy must be constantly guarded and protected.
[00:01:13]  We are still at our core a democracy.
[00:01:17]  This is also a massive victory for democracy and for freedom.
[00:01:28]  Joining us this morning to talk about the campaign 2026 is Tom Bevin.
[00:01:32]  He's the co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics.
[00:01:36]  Tom Bevin, I want to begin with Real Clear Politics polling the average when you look at the president's approval rating.
[00:01:46]  55.6% disapproving on average, 42.7% approving.
[00:01:52]  How would you describe these numbers?
[00:01:56]  They are not great.
[00:01:59]  You know, Trump sort of broke the mold on approval ratings because when he came into office, you know, Democrats have hated him since the moment he took office.
[00:02:09]  And so it used to be the Mendoza line, if you will, the line where presidents were considered in trouble is if they were under 50%.
[00:02:17]  And that makes sense.
[00:02:18]  If a majority of people disapprove of how the president is handling things, they are not likely to re-elect him or her or his or her party.
[00:02:29]  Trump sort of broke that mold a little bit, but he hasn't broken all of history.
[00:02:36]  And so what I mean by that is, you know, 42.7 is not bad for him personally.
[00:02:40]  Historically, it's a bad number, but it is certainly below where I think Republicans would like to see him heading into a midterm election.
[00:02:48]  They would much rather see him about, you know, 45% or higher.
[00:02:53]  And that's where he started when he took office.
[00:02:56]  But since after his first year, he has, if you look at our average, you can see the sort of alligator mouth open up where his approval rating is declining and his disapproval rating is increasing.
[00:03:08]  Should the president and the party be concerned about these numbers?
[00:03:12]  Real on yougov.com poll that showed the president's approval among independents, 66 disapproving, 66% disapproving, 25% approving.
[00:03:26]  Should they be concerned about those numbers?
[00:03:28]  Absolutely.
[00:03:30]  I mean, again, as I said, you know, you got to look at the partisan splits on here.
[00:03:34]  Democrats, they hate Trump.
[00:03:35]  They disapprove of everything he does.
[00:03:37]  Even when he does things that they agree with politically, they don't give him credit for it.
[00:03:41]  So his approval rating among Democrats and Republicans, the opposite.
[00:03:45]  It's a very tribal, we're in a very tribal environment.
[00:03:47]  So they've largely stuck with him to a very strong degree, high 80s, low 90s in a lot of these polls.
[00:03:54]  It's independents who are typically the less ideological type voters who do fluctuate.
[00:04:00]  And they have expressed their disapproval with the way the president is handling.
[00:04:05]  And if you look beyond his approval rating overall, as you mentioned, 42.7 in our average, when you look at the economy, it's about 40%.
[00:04:17]  When you look at inflation in particular, it's about 36 or 37%.
[00:04:21]  So the numbers actually get worse the more you dial in on the issues that the American public are saying are most important to them in November.
[00:04:29]  And I think that's what has to have Republicans most concerned.
[00:04:32]  For these midterm elections coming up.
[00:04:35]  Correct.
[00:04:36]  YouGov also did this poll where they asked folks generically, who do you plan to vote for in November?
[00:04:42]  50% said Democrats, 42% said Republicans.
[00:04:46]  Tom Bevin, your thoughts?
[00:04:48]  Yeah, so the generic congressional ballot is a question that all pollsters ask.
[00:04:51]  They ask it almost in a virtual identical way.
[00:04:54]  If the election were held today, who would you rather vote for, the Democrat or the Republican?
[00:04:59]  Now, it's one of the measures that we use.
[00:05:03]  It's obviously based on a fallacy.
[00:05:05]  The election is not being held today.
[00:05:06]  It's being held seven months from now.
[00:05:09]  And it's also not a reflection of how people feel about their individual congressperson, right?
[00:05:14]  But it does give us a sense of how voters are feeling about the two respective parties.
[00:05:20]  And right now, Democrats are faring much better than Republicans in terms of who the public thinks they would like to see in office.
[00:05:29]  That's a reflection of two things.
[00:05:31]  It's a reflection of, I think, one, Republicans control all the levers of power in Washington.
[00:05:36]  And so if voters are dissatisfied with any part of the economy or anything else, there's only one party to basically hold responsible for that.
[00:05:47]  And the other thing is, you know, the Republican Party, if there's a silver lining for them, it is that they are still viewed more favorably when pollsters ask the question, do you have a favorable or unfavorable, favorable opinion of the parties themselves?
[00:06:03]  Democrats still trail Republicans.
[00:06:05]  So the Democratic brand is still sort of in the toilet, historically speaking, and yet they're performing about five to seven points better than Republicans on that generic ballot question.
[00:06:16]  And so it's a situation where I think voters are dissatisfied with what's going on.
[00:06:20]  They don't necessarily like the Democrats, but right now they prefer to have them in power because Republicans, in their minds, haven't been getting the job done.
[00:06:27]  Well, I'd like to invite our viewers to call in and answer that question as well.
[00:06:31]  If the election was held today, how would you vote and why?
[00:06:34]  Also, what are the top issues for you in this midterm election?
[00:06:38]  Here's how can join this conversation this morning.
[00:06:40]  Republicans, 202-748-8001.
[00:06:44]  Democrats, 202-748-8000.
[00:06:47]  And Independents, 202-748-8002.
[00:06:51]  Tom Bevin is our guest.
[00:06:52]  He's the co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics.
[00:06:56]  Mr. Bevin, is Real Clear Politics have a conservative or a liberal bend?
[00:07:04]  Well, that's a pretty subjective question.
[00:07:10]  We get emails all the time saying that we're too conservative, and we get emails from conservatives who say we're too liberal.
[00:07:16]  One of the things that we do is, and it's pretty evident if you go to our website and you look at what we put on the front page of Real Clear Politics, is we try to have a variety of opinions from across the ideological spectrum.
[00:07:29]  We try to provide the best arguments from the left and the right, which is something that is increasingly rare in this, as I mentioned, sort of tribal partisan environment.
[00:07:38]  And the idea is to let our readers read and decide for themselves who they agree with, who they disagree with on various issues.
[00:07:45]  When it comes to the polling, the numbers are the numbers.
[00:07:46]  I mean, we don't put any special sauce in the numbers like some of our competitors do.
[00:07:52]  There's no black box.
[00:07:53]  We just take a simple average and the numbers are the numbers.
[00:07:56]  So, in all of those ways, we put it out there for our readers and our viewers and let them decide for themselves what they think.
[00:08:06]  We have a marquee primary coming up here at Tom Bevan on March 3rd, Tuesday.
[00:08:10]  We're just days away from it.
[00:08:12]  The Texas Senate primary contest on both the Republican and the Democratic side.
[00:08:17]  There are the Republican candidates on our screen.
[00:08:19]  Senator John Cornyn, the incumbent Attorney General, Ken Paxton, challenging Cornyn as well as Representative Wesley Hunt.
[00:08:26]  President Trump heads to Texas today to talk about energy and the economy.
[00:08:31]  News reports are that all three will be on the stage.
[00:08:33]  Do you think the lack of endorsement by the president is having an impact on this race?
[00:08:41]  You know, that's tough.
[00:08:42]  I mean, Trump's endorsement does matter, particularly in primaries.
[00:08:45]  And so I think he could have helped either of these candidates.
[00:08:48]  His endorsement would have mattered.
[00:08:50]  The fact that he's sort of staying out of it, look, we just had a poll out this morning that showed Paxon up 12 points.
[00:08:56]  He's led in basically every poll that's been taken in the month of January and February.
[00:09:03]  And so it's looking like, I mean, I guess the Republicans' only hope is that, you know, it's forced to a runoff and all of Wesley Hunt's voters would migrate over to John Cornyn and sort of save his bacon.
[00:09:16]  We'll see whether that plays out, but there's no question that the Republicans, I think, are worried that Paxton is not a strong general election candidate.
[00:09:27]  And if Democrats on the other side nominate James Tallarico, that that might actually put Texas in play to the extent where Republicans will have to spend a lot of time and money defending it, which is not something that they would like to do and it's not something that they would traditionally have to do.
[00:09:44]  Talk about this poll that you just cited, up 12 points.
[00:09:47]  Ken Paxton, where does it come from?
[00:09:52]  It's called Chisholm.
[00:09:53]  It's an organization.
[00:09:55]  And we do not include in our real clear politics averages, we don't include any polls that are by the campaigns or sponsored by any PACs that have an agenda.
[00:10:03]  They're all publicly released polls, and we try and vet the polls to make sure that they're sometimes you'll have people that are popping up out of nowhere and conducting polls in the heat of a primary push polls and things to try and influence the coverage of this race.
[00:10:18]  And so, look, this is along the same lines of other polls that we've had in this race that show Paxon up, you know, anywhere from eight to ten points.
[00:10:26]  Twelve is, I think, a bit on the outside, but nevertheless, I mean, I think it's pretty clear that he has some momentum here.
[00:10:35]  Cornyn just released some ads that are hitting him on the fact that he had an affair.
[00:10:38]  They're pretty nasty ads, and we'll see how those might have any sort of impact here in the final days of this primary race.
[00:10:46]  On the Democratic side, you have Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett challenging state rep James Tellarico.
[00:10:52]  And a recent poll, Texas Tribune conducted, shows Crockett up 56 to 44 percent.
[00:10:59]  This was done in February, at the end of February, just recently.
[00:11:03]  What do you make of those numbers and the chances of either one of these if they these candidates in the general election flipping this seat?
[00:11:14]  Yeah.
[00:11:15]  So, you know, primaries are hard to poll because it is a sort of, you know, base electorate.
[00:11:21]  And we did have a, they're notoriously difficult to pull if you have events that happen.
[00:11:27]  And we did have an event with Tallerico's interview with Stephen Colbert that got pulled off the air.
[00:11:34]  And then he turned around and raised a ton of money off of that and said that, you know, Donald Trump was trying to silence him.
[00:11:40]  And this is the campaign that he doesn't want anyone to know about.
[00:11:43]  And it seemed to give him sort of anecdotally a burst and a little bit of momentum.
[00:11:50]  And then you had this Texas Tribune poll come out and show that, well, in fact, they show Crockett up double digits.
[00:11:55]  So it's hard to tell what's going on in this race, whether Tallarico actually has some.
[00:12:01]  And again, the poll that I just mentioned has Tallarico up double digits.
[00:12:04]  So there's a lot of sort of fluidity in this race as Democratic primary voters in Texas are trying to decide who they want to represent them in the general election.
[00:12:13]  I think the consensus is that Tallarico is the most electable of the two candidates and that Crockett would be a tougher sell to a general electorate in Texas.
[00:12:22]  But as I said, I think Democrats have had this dream of turning Texas blue for a long time.
[00:12:29]  They came close with Beto Rourke running against Ted Cruz.
[00:12:33]  He got to within three points with, you know, again, he raised tons of money and tons of media exposure.
[00:12:40]  Texas remains a Republican state.
[00:12:43]  But if there was ever a situation where, you know, Democrats could get this done, 2026 provides, I think, almost a perfect storm because you have Donald Trump who is not officially on the ballot.
[00:12:58]  And so the MAGA base, the folks who turn out because they want to vote for Donald Trump, they might be less interested in voting in this race.
[00:13:06]  Meanwhile, Donald Trump is animating Democrats.
[00:13:10]  I mean, they have a huge enthusiasm gap.
[00:13:12]  There was just a Washington poll that came out yesterday that showed them up, I think, 14 points on Republicans nationally in terms of their enthusiasm for voting in November.
[00:13:23]  And so they're animating the Democrats.
[00:13:25]  And so, again, if you get Tallarico, who might be more palatable in a general election versus a Ken Paxon, who might be a little bit too far to the right, although it's hard to imagine someone being too far to the right in Texas, it's still a pretty Republican state.
[00:13:37]  But you mentioned those independents.
[00:13:39]  They could be decisive in a race.
[00:13:41]  I mean, if they did, it could be very close and probably too close for Republicans.
[00:13:46]  I still have to think it's an uphill battle for Democrats, but it's not out of the question by any stretch.
[00:13:53]  Well, C-SPAN will begin its coverage of that March 3rd primary, 7 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday night.
[00:14:00]  And we will focus on the primaries in the state of Texas, the Republicans and the Democrats that we've just talked about in that marquee Senate race.
[00:14:10]  Gary in Newport, Kentucky, a Republican, you are up first in this conversation.
[00:14:15]  Go ahead.
[00:14:16]  Good morning.
[00:14:17]  Good morning.
[00:14:17]  And away we go, right?
[00:14:20]  Here we go with the polls.
[00:14:22]  Time and time again, we've proven that these polls aren't worth taking.
[00:14:29]  And I think about September or October, it's going to become an event's going to happen or something, you know, somebody's going to do something to change this election and swing it one way or the other.
[00:14:44]  And it happens every year.
[00:14:46]  It happens time and time again.

=== Epstein Saga's Midterm Impact (15:41) ===

[00:14:48]  And, you know, these polls, I mean, I guess they are, you know, nine months away.
[00:14:57]  Yeah, well, Gary, I mean, polls are a snapshot in time.
[00:15:00]  Tom Bevin's he's predicting an October surprise.
[00:15:04]  Right.
[00:15:05]  Well, I mean, go ahead, Gary.
[00:15:10]  But, you know, you know, one reason why the other party in midterms usually wins is because the reigning party or administration, whatever you want to call it, is still recovering from the last one.
[00:15:26]  So, you know, it's just hard to figure, you know, I mean, you know, the economy, the Democrats talk about the economy, and that's how Trump won with on the economy.
[00:15:39]  So, yeah.
[00:15:40]  All right, Mr. Bevin.
[00:15:43]  Yeah, look, I mean, we get this a lot.
[00:15:46]  And look, polling has not been, it hasn't been great.
[00:15:51]  There have been some misses, particularly in the Trump era, because Trump scrambled the electorate, I think, in surprising ways that pollsters were, I think, late to catch up on in certain areas and certain states.
[00:16:03]  The national polling actually has been pretty good, but there is a lot of skepticism out there about polling.
[00:16:10]  And some of it is understandable.
[00:16:12]  But as you point out, Greta, I mean, this is, you know, it's basically the only tool we have to get a sense of where the electorate is at any given point in time to sort of feel our way for how people are feeling about the parties or the candidates or the president or any of these issues that are in play.
[00:16:31]  I certainly agree with the caller, though.
[00:16:33]  You know, as you get closer to the election, the polls actually become more, they have more bearing because the further you get away, a lot of this stuff is, I don't want to say theoretical, but certainly there's the ability for voters to change their minds.
[00:16:49]  There's the ability for circumstances to happen that alter the political landscape.
[00:16:54]  So you got to take them for what they are.
[00:16:57]  And again, with an election just, you know, on Tuesday, I would say this is all we have to look at how things are going.
[00:17:07]  As we talk about the midterms, certainly I think Republicans have time to change voter perception, but they're running out of time.
[00:17:16]  A lot of times voters will say, when you look at the data, a lot of voters have decided who they're going to vote for a month or sometimes even a year before the election, vast majority of folks, they're team red, they're team blue.
[00:17:28]  Anything that happens between now and November is not going to change who they're going to vote for.
[00:17:32]  But there are some people who actually will swing and based on how they perceive their personal circumstance or what have you.
[00:17:41]  And those are the voters that Republicans have to win those folks over and they have to motivate their base to turn out in November.
[00:17:48]  And on the economy, which, as I said, is the number one issue, there are signs that the economy is improving.
[00:17:54]  I mean, mortgage rates were under 6% yesterday for the first time in four years.
[00:17:58]  President Trump and his State of the Union touted all the things that, you know, all the accomplishments that he says he has made on the economy.
[00:18:06]  And so there is time for Republicans, I think, to change those perceptions, but they've only got a couple of months left.
[00:18:13]  By June, I think folks are pretty much locked into what they think is the political reality around the economy.
[00:18:20]  Christine's next.
[00:18:21]  She's in Mayport, Pennsylvania, on our line for Democrats.
[00:18:26]  Hi there.
[00:18:28]  The question early on when I first turned on C-SPAN was, if I voted today, who would I vote for?
[00:18:34]  Absolutely not a Republican because Republicans are fine with what on a pedophile in the presidency, it seems.
[00:18:44]  Because how many times has this man been in the Epstein files?
[00:18:48]  Hundreds of thousands.
[00:18:51]  Christine, have you ever voted for a Republican?
[00:18:55]  You're calling on the line for Democrats.
[00:18:57]  Yes, I have.
[00:18:58]  For local Republicans, not my representative right now.
[00:19:03]  He's not doing anything.
[00:19:05]  He's keeping his head under the desk and his mouth shut.
[00:19:08]  All right.
[00:19:08]  Christine there in Pennsylvania.
[00:19:11]  Tom Bevin, is this Epstein saga having any impact or could it have any impact on the midterm elections?
[00:19:22]  I think the caller tuned in maybe a little bit too late.
[00:19:24]  She should have tuned in for your previous segment with Vicki Ward as they talked about the Epstein files.
[00:19:30]  I mean, yes, Trump's involved in the Epstein files.
[00:19:32]  His name is in there, but there's no evidence that he's a pedophile or that he's done anything wrong, despite the perceptions that Democrats have pushed on that regard.
[00:19:43]  Will it affect, it certainly has been a thorny issue for Trump and the Trump administration, even among Republicans, right?
[00:19:51]  It's divided the Republican Party.
[00:19:53]  It has been something that it's been like a sort of drip, drip, drip.
[00:19:57]  It won't go away.
[00:19:59]  The administration, for whatever reason, has not been willing to sort of pull the band-aid off and get all these files out there.
[00:20:07]  Took a law to pass Congress for this to happen.
[00:20:11]  So it is definitely an issue that has bedeviled the administration and split the Republican Party.
[00:20:16]  Now, is that going to move voters in November?
[00:20:20]  I don't think so.
[00:20:21]  I mean, when you ask people what the issues are that they care about, you know, the Epstein files is nowhere on that list.
[00:20:27]  It's all about the economy, inflation, cost of health care, foreign policy, crime, immigration, abortion, all this sort of typical issues that are in the mix.
[00:20:39]  And obviously, the economy is above all by an order of magnitude.
[00:20:43]  So I just don't know that it's going to, you know, and again, as the caller just proved, I mean, Democrats have already made up their minds about the Epstein issue and regarding Republicans and Trump.
[00:20:55]  And Republicans have already made up their minds about the Epstein issue.
[00:20:58]  So I don't think it's going to have, it's been in the headlines a lot, and it certainly has taken up a lot of media oxygen, but I don't know that it's moved many voters.
[00:21:07]  We'll go to Miami, Florida.
[00:21:09]  Robert, Independent.
[00:21:11]  Yeah, good morning, and good morning, Tom.
[00:21:14]  I'm an independent that is leaning Democratic, but for one reason, and that is the staunch support of young women and girls and Title IX and supporting them in sports.
[00:21:31]  And I'm going to ask you, Tom, I can't believe many Democratic leaders, they just refuse to define what an adult woman is.
[00:21:41]  Doesn't that surprise you as a reasonable person?
[00:21:44]  I do not see how young men or boys can say now they're girls and we're competing in women's sports or young girls' sports.
[00:21:52]  That is a turnoff to myself, my family, and many people and grandparents who have young girls and women that participate in sports and train their whole lives for this.
[00:22:02]  So it's a turnoff to me and I'd like your thoughts.
[00:22:05]  Thank you.
[00:22:07]  So that's a great question.
[00:22:09]  And it's a great example of, and this is why, you know, the president brought it up at the State of the Union.
[00:22:14]  The economy is up here.
[00:22:16]  It's what everyone's concerned about.
[00:22:19]  And they have anxiety about wages and prices and all of those things.
[00:22:24]  But there are these other issues.
[00:22:26]  Illegal immigration is one.
[00:22:27]  I mean, it's that the president highlighted at the State of the Union.
[00:22:31]  But on the trans issue, particularly, you know, trans boys playing girls sports, it's an 80-20 issue that really does capture sort of the normie vote.
[00:22:45]  And I would include the caller in that group of people who, you know, it animates them, it motivates them because it's one of those issues that seems just so far outside of the mainstream position.
[00:23:00]  Even among a majority of Democrats don't support this.
[00:23:02]  And yet, you have the base of the Democratic Party is willing to go to the mats on this issue over and over and over again.
[00:23:10]  Abigail Spamberger is a perfect example.
[00:23:12]  She managed to win that election in Virginia and become governor of Virginia as a moderate, but would not answer that issue, was hounded day after day after day during that campaign and just wouldn't say, no, I think it's unfair for boys to play in girls' sports.
[00:23:29]  She could not bring herself to say it because she was afraid of the backlash that would happen from the left wing of her party.
[00:23:36]  And so it is an issue that continues to, I think, benefit Republicans and pull in those sort of independent and normie voters who might otherwise vote for Democrats.
[00:23:48]  Herndon, Virginia, John, on our line for Republicans, good morning to you.
[00:23:52]  Go ahead.
[00:23:54]  Thanks for taking my call.
[00:23:55]  I've been a Republican for a long time during the Reagan time, and I know what Republicans can do.
[00:24:02]  But the reality is this guy is claiming he's a poll-taker.
[00:24:06]  I have no idea what polls that he's looking at.
[00:24:11]  Present right now, he has 36% his approval rate.
[00:24:16]  Okay.
[00:24:17]  You mentioned about mortgage.
[00:24:20]  People, they don't eat mortgage.
[00:24:22]  They go out there and buy grocery.
[00:24:25]  They buy foods.
[00:24:27]  They're looking for a job.
[00:24:28]  That's what they're looking for.
[00:24:29]  How are we going to win an election when everything that this man touched going down a drain?
[00:24:37]  And again, you say that Donald Trump can go to Texas and say that vote for this guy.
[00:24:46]  No one will accept it.
[00:24:48]  I will say this.
[00:24:49]  If any Republicans are listening out there, we need to get rid of all these Republicans because they don't work for us.
[00:24:57]  We hired them to do work.
[00:24:59]  We are American.
[00:25:00]  When we see things going wrong, we need to speak up.
[00:25:04]  We cannot be quiet.
[00:25:06]  We are the policy people.
[00:25:09]  All right, John, let me ask you.
[00:25:10]  John, in Herndon, Virginia, did you vote for President Trump?
[00:25:14]  No, I did not.
[00:25:15]  The second time, I did not.
[00:25:17]  But the first time I did.
[00:25:19]  Because, remember, now we're going to war to Iran.
[00:25:24]  He's telling us that we're not going to war.
[00:25:27]  And now he's putting all these troops to Iran.
[00:25:30]  Listen, do we need to present for one party or do we need presidents who bring people together and have a vision for this country?
[00:25:39]  All right.
[00:25:40]  I'll leave it there.
[00:25:40]  Tom Bevin.
[00:25:43]  I don't even know how to respond to that.
[00:25:47]  You know, look, it probably just highlights the fact that there's still a section of the Republican Party who are anti-Trump, right?
[00:26:00]  Who did not vote for him this time around and who oppose him.
[00:26:05]  I do think it is definitely this time around was different than obviously his first term, where the number of Republicans in the party, in the caucus on Capitol Hill that were fighting him, he was fighting the Democrats, the media, and a significant portion of his own party.
[00:26:25]  I think this time around, it's been much more, he's still fighting the Democrats, still fighting the media to a certain degree.
[00:26:31]  But the portion of the Republican Party that is anti-Trump is, I think, much smaller than it has been in the past.
[00:26:40]  And so they've sort of been able to consolidate Republican votes in part because I think there are plenty of Republicans out there who are more moderate and maybe don't like Trump's style and don't like, maybe don't even like some of his policies.
[00:26:56]  But the alternative is to that, you know, for them is voting for a Democrat, which, as we just pointed out, many independents don't even seem willing to do because of some of the policies that they're proposing.
[00:27:07]  Alex is calling from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Independent.
[00:27:11]  Yeah, I just wanted to kind of circle back to Tom's comments regarding why people want the FC files released.
[00:27:18]  Personally, it has nothing to do with the pedophilia.
[00:27:21]  I think it has more to do with money and politics.
[00:27:23]  I think a lot of young people, myself included, we want Citizens United from 2011 overturned.
[00:27:30]  We would like to see why there's committee members that have dual citizenship with other nations and they fund for or promote funding to those nations.
[00:27:42]  Quite frankly, none of what I'm seeing from either side of the aisle is really America first until it boils down to how are we supporting Americans?
[00:27:52]  How are we using that money to not just prop up a political campaign, but actually put money back into the systems that we live in each and every day, like the collar before me.
[00:28:03]  You know, it's not about so much, you know, making mortgage rates affordable.
[00:28:09]  It's about how does this fit my bottom line week to week so I can afford to exist.
[00:28:14]  Tom Bevin.
[00:28:16]  Well, look, I mean, housing costs are one of the biggest drivers that folks, it's housing, it's health care, it's cost of food, cost of energy.
[00:28:25]  It's all of those things.
[00:28:27]  So, but I look, I take the collar's point.
[00:28:30]  I mean, there are a lot of people out there in the United States today who are disaffected and don't see either party doing the job for them.
[00:28:41]  And that's not new, but it seems to be growing.
[00:28:44]  And that is unfortunate because I think we've seen a loss in trust in institutions, everything across, you know, from the Supreme Court to Congress, the presidency, the media, of course.
[00:28:59]  We're about as low as you can possibly be.
[00:29:02]  Folks don't trust us anymore, and they don't trust a lot of things that they see around them because they've seen this sort of corruption.
[00:29:11]  And, you know, I'll just say, go back to the State of the Union address.
[00:29:15]  This idea, and we talked about this on our radio show the other day, you know, Trump proposed he wanted to see the stock trading ban passed.
[00:29:23]  The fact that we haven't passed that law, that Congress has been unwilling or unable to pass that law for so long is a perfect example of how people look at the institution of Congress and say, you know, they're a bunch of crooks.
[00:29:39]  Why is all this stuff being hidden from the American people?
[00:29:43]  There's not enough transparency.
[00:29:45]  There's too much corruption going on.
[00:29:50]  And we're now seeing this bubble up in some of the states and all these programs.
[00:29:55]  And I do think that is a powerful force.
[00:29:57]  And that's something that whichever party can be seen as being on the side of doing away with corruption and taking all these taxpayer dollars that are being wasted or abused and putting them back into programs that are actually showing benefits to the public.
[00:30:17]  That will be a very popular policy and they'll reap some rewards from that.
[00:30:21]  Dwayne in North Carolina on our line for Republicans.
[00:30:25]  Dwayne, you're talking to Tom Bevin of Real Clear Politics.
[00:30:28]  Go ahead.

=== North Carolina's Redistricting Battle (07:37) ===

[00:30:29]  Good morning.
[00:30:30]  Yes, I'm talking about that election that the runoff that's going on in Texas.
[00:30:35]  I mean, you know, Democrats ain't going to win.
[00:30:38]  You know, Bozo O'Rourke, he was close, but he ain't going to get it.
[00:30:42]  And Jasmine Crockett, you know, if she don't win it, she's going to claim racism.
[00:30:47]  But I live in North Carolina, and I've had Cooper for eight years, and he voted against this voter ID law, which is bringing me, you know, we need Watley here.
[00:30:59]  And what I'm, you know, the State of the Union was an absolute disgrace for the Democrats because you see where their priorities are.
[00:31:10]  When they say Congress should be representing American people and not illegal aliens, not a Democrat stood up.
[00:31:19]  And that is pathetic.
[00:31:20]  That is just absolutely pathetic.
[00:31:22]  And Duane, there are news reports today that Republicans will use that moment from the State of the Union in campaign messaging.
[00:31:28]  Tom Bevin?
[00:31:30]  Yeah, look, I think Trump set a trap for the Democrats and they walked right into it.
[00:31:35]  Now, it was a partisan speech, and I've heard from people who don't want to see the State of the Union be that partisan.
[00:31:42]  On the other hand, it was also, I think, there was a lot of upbeat and sort of patriotic.
[00:31:49]  It was almost Trump, and I know Democrats have sort of, I've seen in the media, they sort of denigrated as like, it was like a game show and they were handing out medals and all that.
[00:31:57]  And I think that also is the wrong approach, the wrong message.
[00:32:04]  You know, Trump was, this is the 250th anniversary of the country.
[00:32:07]  This was a celebration of, you know, patriotism and all of the things that people love about America, including the hockey team winning gold and 100-year-old veterans who, you know, fought for America and multiple wars.
[00:32:22]  And the Democrats, again, struggled mightily to muster any sort of enthusiasm for these things.
[00:32:32]  And then after the fact, you know, as I said, in some circles anyway, sort of derided them and dismissed them.
[00:32:38]  So I do think that was probably not the right approach for Democrats.
[00:32:44]  But look, ultimately, you know, we just, the caller mentioned the race in North Carolina.
[00:32:50]  You know, Watley, the Republican, is, we just had a poll come out.
[00:32:54]  He's way up in the primary, but he's going to, he's trailing in the general election.
[00:32:58]  That is an uphill battle for Republicans to be able to win that seat, particularly in a midterm year where Republicans control everything in Washington.
[00:33:09]  And if voters are looking to voice their displeasure, they're going to elect a Democrat from North Carolina.
[00:33:14]  Tom Tillis is retiring from his seat.
[00:33:17]  And so that is an open contest.
[00:33:19]  And North Carolina has their primary on Tuesday night.
[00:33:23]  Michael Watley, as Tom Bevan was just saying, the frontrunner on the GOP side for that primary and Roy Cooper for the Democrats.
[00:33:31]  And then those two will face off in the general election.
[00:33:35]  Tom Bevin, this is expected to be an expensive and hotly contested race.
[00:33:41]  Yeah, North Carolina has become basically a purple state, a bellwether.
[00:33:45]  I mean, it's decided, you know, Trump's won it, but it's a couple of points here or there.
[00:33:50]  And North Carolina has certainly shown that its willingness to elect Democrats.
[00:33:53]  Rory Cooper's a two-term governor of that state.
[00:33:56]  And so he has great name recognition.
[00:33:58]  He's a well-established, well-vetted candidate, probably the best candidate Democrats picked up this cycle.
[00:34:10]  And he's going to be tough to beat in this environment, in that state, with his record there.
[00:34:14]  Again, there's plenty of ammunition against him, but at the end of the day, I think he's got to be considered a favorite there.
[00:34:22]  And the Republicans are probably, I think the general consensus is that Republicans are probably going to lose the House because it's just too tough an environment, barring some sort of change in the political landscape.
[00:34:37]  And the margins are just so slim.
[00:34:39]  Republicans are probably destined to lose the House of Representatives.
[00:34:42]  Senate's a different issue, but Republicans are, we'll see what happens in Texas.
[00:34:48]  We just had a poll come out showing Graham Plattner winning the primary against Janet Mills there, and then I think up 11 points on Susan Collins.
[00:34:56]  That's another big target.
[00:34:58]  So they're two seats.
[00:34:59]  And if Democrats can defend places like Georgia, where John Osoff is running or Michigan, then they are getting closer.
[00:35:08]  They need a net gain of four seats.
[00:35:11]  Three will only get them to 50-50.
[00:35:12]  And obviously, JD Vance would break the tie.
[00:35:14]  So they're going to have to get into Republican territory, whether it's Texas or Florida or Ohio or Iowa.
[00:35:20]  Alaska is another one.
[00:35:21]  They have opportunities.
[00:35:24]  And if the environment continues to worsen for Republicans, if they can't sort of improve their standing, then some of those states will definitely be in play.
[00:35:33]  And it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Republicans could lose the Senate as well.
[00:35:38]  Again, March 3rd, Tuesday, coming up next week, are the primaries in Texas and North Carolina.
[00:35:46]  Tom Bevin, that caller said it's a runoff in Texas.
[00:35:49]  Well, we're not there quite yet, but what are the odds that on the at least on the GOP side, possibly on the Dem side, that the candidates have to go to a runoff in May?
[00:36:00]  Yeah, I mean, less likely on the Democratic side because there's a third party, there's a third candidate, but he's pulling it like 1%.
[00:36:06]  But on the Republican side, you've got Wesley Hunt, who's in some polls getting 25 or 30%.
[00:36:12]  So he's got a significant chunk of the electorate, which would keep the other two under 50 and push that race to a runoff.
[00:36:17]  And then, as I said, the question is, okay, well, what happens with his voters?
[00:36:21]  Do they disproportionately migrate over to Cornyn and save him?
[00:36:26]  Or do they split evenly?
[00:36:27]  In which case, that might benefit be enough for Ken Paxon to win the runoff.
[00:36:33]  So it's hard to tell when you try and look at these things and figure out and read the tea leaves and predict where voters are going to do and what they're going to do.
[00:36:42]  That's always a dicey proposition.
[00:36:44]  So I suspect there will be a runoff, but we'll have to wait and see when we have some more data how voters feel about those two candidates.
[00:36:53]  And what about the redistricting efforts in Texas ahead of the midterms here in 2026?
[00:36:59]  What will the primaries on Tuesday night tell us about Republicans redistricting hopes to pick up more seats in Texas?
[00:37:07]  Yeah, that's a good question.
[00:37:08]  I mean, it's hard to say.
[00:37:10]  I think just sort of dialing back and looking at the landscape overall, the question is, well, can you know, have Republicans won redistricting wars enough to insulate themselves from losing the House of Representatives?
[00:37:23]  And Sean Trendy's our senior elections analyst, and he's an expert at redistricting.
[00:37:28]  We just had him on our radio show the other day, and his answer to that question, which I posed to him, was that Republicans are probably, given where everything, you know, when you talk about Texas, you talk about California, you talk about some of these other states that have been involved in redistricting Virginia, that Republicans are probably going to come out a seed or two ahead, but not enough to matter.
[00:37:50]  Now, there's the potential that if the Supreme Court, if they strike down the Voting Rights Act, that somehow that would get Louisiana involved and Mississippi involved and could boost Republican redistricting to the point where it might help them on the margins.

=== Aliens, Laws, and Politics (05:07) ===

[00:38:07]  But again, right now, it looks like that the redistricting wars, it basically, you know, they've battled, the parties have battled to tie more or less, and Republicans might come out a little bit on top, but it's really, at the end of the day, it's not going to be enough to matter substantially in the November midterms.
[00:38:26]  Kathleen in Chicago, Democratic caller.
[00:38:30]  Good morning.
[00:38:30]  How you doing?
[00:38:31]  Good morning.
[00:38:32]  Okay, there's three things I need to ask Mr. Bellvin.
[00:38:36]  He said illegal aliens.
[00:38:41]  Can I ask you, Mr. Bellvin, have you ever ran across an illegal alien in America in the world?
[00:38:49]  These people are human just like you.
[00:38:51]  They're not aliens.
[00:38:53]  Then that's what he said.
[00:38:54]  Trump was toting all the accomplishments that he's made since he's been back in.
[00:39:00]  What has he done for the American people other than enrich himself, his family, using all our money, sending it to other countries?
[00:39:10]  People here in America, you know, took test care away from people.
[00:39:14]  Hey, Kathleen, what is the third?
[00:39:16]  Because we're running short on time.
[00:39:18]  You let him run off and run off.
[00:39:20]  And then, as soon as this disturbing is, you all have worried about what Hillary Clinton had to say about Jeffrey Epstein.
[00:39:30]  Well, she has never seen Jeffrey Epstein, but Maria Trump and Donald Trump, they're in pictures with Trump.
[00:39:39]  And he said there's no evidence that Trump did anything wrong.
[00:39:43]  If you read the files, and then they've been showing him on TV, that he's been accused of messing with a 13-year-old kid, as well as using his fingers to molest children.
[00:39:55]  So none of them have done five years, if anything, but you cannot just say this man is not guilty.
[00:40:01]  All right, Kathleen, I will leave it there.
[00:40:03]  Tom Bevin?
[00:40:06]  Thanks, Greta.
[00:40:09]  What do you want me to do with that one?
[00:40:11]  Look, I'll start with the first one, which is, you know, calling people who are illegally, illegal aliens or illegal immigrants.
[00:40:24]  It's interesting.
[00:40:25]  There was just a clip that was circulating on X the other day.
[00:40:31]  It was Bill Clinton in 1997, I believe, his State of the Union, maybe it was 95, it was, but his State of the Union address, and he talked about illegal immigration.
[00:40:42]  And he actually used the phrase illegal aliens and said that we're going to secure the border and that these folks are taking jobs that Americans might otherwise have and they're committing crimes and we're going to increase our deportation.
[00:40:55]  That used to be the mainstream position of the Democratic Party, right?
[00:41:00]  Now, 30 years is a long time, but fast forward, and here we are.
[00:41:03]  That's the position of the Republican Party.
[00:41:05]  And Democrats are over here saying, not only do we not want any of that stuff, we want to abolish ICE, we want to abolish DHS, we want effectively open borders, we want to decriminalize border crossings, which is what they said in 2019.
[00:41:18]  But you can't even call these folks aliens.
[00:41:22]  They're humans.
[00:41:22]  And so I think that just goes to show on the issue of illegal immigration, it has become a flashpoint in our country.
[00:41:32]  But the parties have, you know, at least the Democratic Party, I think, has moved pretty far to the left over the last two or so decades.
[00:41:44]  And that's what makes this a tough issue for, I think, that Congress can't even begin to deal with it because of how the two parties have sort of separated themselves.
[00:41:53]  Is the reference a legal one that Bill Clinton made?
[00:41:56]  And what you're saying, the word alien, referencing laws that Congress has put in place.
[00:42:04]  I'm sorry, say that again?
[00:42:05]  With the reference to illegal alien that you're saying, you know, Bill Clinton made, is the reference a legal one, the word alien.
[00:42:14]  Is the reference a legal one?
[00:42:15]  Yeah, because of laws that were written by Congress in the 1970s and since then.
[00:42:21]  And the role of, I'm wondering about the role of laws here and the debate rather and the role Congress needs to play in immigration.
[00:42:31]  And it's not being done up on Capitol Hill.
[00:42:33]  No, it's certainly not.
[00:42:34]  And it hasn't been done for decades.
[00:42:38]  They've never been able to come to any sort of, you know, there's always a push for comprehensive immigration reform, which includes border security and all these other things.
[00:42:48]  And that's never been something that has been able to get through both chambers of Congress.
[00:42:55]  But as far as his language, my point was only that the language that the President of the United States was using in 1995 is now considered, you know, verboten and taboo for our caller and other members of the Democratic Party.
[00:43:09]  Understood.
[00:43:10]  Tom Bevin is co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics.

=== Messaging Problem (04:54) ===

[00:43:15]  Tom Bevin, where can folks go to see your polling and how you put it together?
[00:43:20]  How do you put it together for folks that don't know?
[00:43:23]  You go to RealClairePolitics.com or RealClairPolling.com and see all of the stuff that we have to offer on the website.
[00:43:30]  As I said, across the political spectrum, columns, video clips, and certainly the latest polls in all of these races.
[00:43:38]  All right.
[00:43:38]  Let's go to Bob, who's in Waterton, New York, a Republican.
[00:43:41]  Hi, Bob.
[00:43:43]  Hey there.
[00:43:44]  Thanks, Tom, for everything you're doing.
[00:43:46]  My big thing is about affordability for the upcoming elections.
[00:43:49]  And that's a lot of the Democrats pushing back on what's going on.
[00:43:53]  But over the four years of Biden, obviously everything went up pretty high for the inflation rates.
[00:43:58]  But if they're truly coming down to 2 and 2.5%, what we would like them, there's got to be a way to be able to prove it to the people.
[00:44:05]  Like the grocery stores, they feel it.
[00:44:08]  When you see fuel coming down, most people know what the price of fuel was six months ago and a year ago.
[00:44:13]  But the price of, they always talk about eggs, but the price of like just say milk and bread and meats and things, somehow or another, the White House has to prove to the people, both sides, all parties, that prices have come, you know, they're staying where they are or maybe coming down a little bit.
[00:44:33]  And Bob, I have to jump in at that point.
[00:44:34]  Tom Bevin, we'll get an answer for you and then we have to run.
[00:44:37]  Go ahead.
[00:44:38]  Yeah, look, I agree.
[00:44:40]  There are plenty of things that data points that Trump can point to, stock market this and that and the other thing.
[00:44:47]  The problem is, in my opinion, he's not doing enough.
[00:44:51]  He's losing on the question of when voters say, does this person, does the president, is he looking out for people like me?
[00:44:58]  Is he working on the things that I care about?
[00:45:02]  And his problem, in my opinion, is that, you know, in his first term, he used to have these, he'd have these summits at the White House with like truckers and welders and laborers and all these things.
[00:45:11]  He was sort of focused on.
[00:45:13]  This first year has been as much about foreign policy and building a new wing in the White House and FIFA and all these other things as opposed to getting up every day.
[00:45:24]  He's got basically an empathy problem.
[00:45:26]  First, he called it a hoax and he's, oh, it's, you know, things are good.
[00:45:29]  Well, he needs to say, look, things are getting better.
[00:45:32]  My administration is getting up every single day, laser focused on making progress on all these issues that you care about.
[00:45:39]  And then he has to back that up with events that media can do nothing but report on, right?
[00:45:44]  Where he has workers in the White House.
[00:45:46]  He has these things.
[00:45:47]  When he's talking about other things, when he's talking about taking over Greenland, it took up like 10 days worth of media coverage, right?
[00:45:55]  The media reports on that.
[00:45:56]  And people are like, what does that have to do with the price of eggs or beef at the store?
[00:46:01]  So I think it's a messaging problem.
[00:46:04]  And it's also, it's a perception problem.
[00:46:06]  He has to change perceptions about where the economy is.
[00:46:09]  And that's a tough thing to do.
[00:46:10]  Tom Bevin, co-founder and president of RealClearPolitics, go to realclepolitics.com for more.
[00:46:15]  Thank you very much.
[00:46:17]  Thank you.
[00:46:22]  So you interviewed the other night.
[00:46:24]  I watched it about two o'clock in the morning.
[00:46:26]  There was a little thing called C-SPAN, which I don't know how many people were watching.
[00:46:30]  Don't worry, you were on prime time too, but they happen to have a little rerun.
[00:46:34]  Do you really think that we don't remember what just happened last week?
[00:46:38]  Thank goodness for C-SPAN, and we all should review the tape.
[00:46:42]  Everyone wonders when they're watching C-SPAN what the conversations are on the floor.
[00:46:46]  I'm about to read to you something that was published by C-SPAN.
[00:46:50]  There's a lot of things that Congress fights about that they disagree on.
[00:46:55]  We can all watch that on C-SPAN.
[00:46:57]  Millions of people across the country tuned into C-SPAN.
[00:47:05]  That was a May-for-C-SPAN moment.
[00:47:08]  If you watch on C-SPAN, you're going to see me physically across the aisle every day, just trying to build relationships and try to understand their perspective and find common ground.
[00:47:17]  And welcome aboard to everybody watching at home.
[00:47:19]  We know C-SPAN covers this live as well.
[00:47:21]  We appreciate that.
[00:47:22]  And one can only hope that he's able to watch C-SPAN on a black and white television set in his prison cell.
[00:47:30]  This is being carried live by C-SPAN.
[00:47:32]  It is being watched not only in this country, but it's being watched around the world right now.
[00:47:39]  Mike said before, I happened to listen to him.
[00:47:42]  He was on C-SPAN 1.
[00:47:44]  That's a big upgrade, right?
[00:47:54]  Sunday on C-SPAN's Q&A.
[00:47:58]  Former New York Democratic U.S. Congressman Steve Israel talks about his novel, The Einstein Conspiracy, inspired by a real Nazi plot to eliminate physicist Albert Einstein in the 1930s.

=== Nazi Threat in Belgium (00:46) ===

[00:48:10]  A vocal critic of Adolf Hitler, Einstein fled to the United States with his wife in 1933 and became a U.S. citizen in 1940.
[00:48:19]  He had visited the U.S. where he taught, then was set to return to Germany and realized, I can't go back.
[00:48:26]  Spent time in Belgium.
[00:48:29]  A Nazi hit squad tried to assassinate him in Belgium, in Belgium.
[00:48:33]  His wife pled with him not to take his daily walks because there was a $5,000 bounty on his head.
[00:48:40]  He said, I didn't know my head was worth that much, and continued his walks.
[00:48:44]  Goes to England where he's threatened.
[00:48:46]  Comes to America where he believes he's finally safe, an ocean away from the Nazis, until he learns that the shadow of the Nazis is darkening America itself.