Larry Sabato, co-author of Campaign of Chaos, analyzes 2026 election trends, citing Trump’s 36–42% approval (Gallup/Nov) and Democrats’ 14-point generic ballot edge (Marist NPR/Nov). Virginia’s legislative shift—51 to 64 seats—and redistricting risks favor Republicans, with a potential 10-seat gain if the Supreme Court weakens minority protections. Sabato defends U.S. election integrity despite calls questioning turnout margins like North Carolina’s 100,000+ vote discrepancies, attributing down-ballot losses to voter "falloff." The episode underscores how early polling and legal battles could reshape 2026’s political landscape, with partisan narratives clashing over fairness and strategy. [Automatically generated summary]
Even though it's still a ways away, what are things to consider right now when it comes to next year?
unidentified
You always want to look first and foremost at the presidential approval rate.
What is the job approval of the incumbent president?
And that is scoping in lots of things, such as the condition of the economy, whether people are happy or unhappy with living conditions domestically.
If there are any really major international operations that directly affect and involve American troops, these are things that have an impact on the vote.
Well, if that was the job approval on Election Day 2026, next November, then Democrats would almost certainly take over the House, regardless of what happens with redistricting in all of these states.
And they'd actually have a shot at the Senate.
It would be difficult, but not impossible.
unidentified
So obviously, Republicans have to hope that isn't the number then.
And of course, let's remember now, Gallup is a very good pollster, been around a long time, gold standard, but that is just one poll.
And the average of the polls that are considered nonpartisan right now has Trump at 40, 41, 42%.
That isn't good either, but it's a lot better than 36%.
So a lot can change, and you also have to remember to use polling averages.
If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democrat or Republican in your district or for the House of Representatives or your state for the U.S. Senate?
unidentified
That's generic ballot without using names and bringing in personalities.
Yes, that has been trending toward the Democrats.
They started very low, actually, at the beginning of Trump's term.
Republicans, if anything, were a little bit ahead.
If they implode or explode Section 2, which tends to favor Democrats and incumbent Democrats who are minorities, then Republicans could gain another 10 seats out of that.
unidentified
So I'm not saying this couldn't add up to determine the results.
On the whole, though, Democrats have had a fight-back strategy that has minimized so far the Republican advantage in re-redistricting.
I would say Republicans have an advantage, but it's maybe three, four, five seats, whereas it could have been 10-plus seats so far.
Larry Sabado giving us his time, talked about politics.
You could ask him questions: 202748-8001 for Republicans.
Democrats, 202-748-8,000 for Democrats and independents, 202-748-8002.
For independents, you can text us at 202-748-8003.
Mr. Sabado, how much weight do you put in those governor's elections in Virginia and New Jersey?
Democratic wins for both.
Some saying not so much.
Some saying maybe it's a sign.
How much weight do you put in them?
unidentified
It's certainly better to win than lose.
And it's even better to win in landslides.
And those landslides were not predicted.
The good polling, the nonpartisan polling, showed the Democrats winning, showed certainly Spanberger in Virginia winning by a very wide margin.
Less so for the Democrat in New Jersey, clearly ahead, but not ahead by as much as Spanberger.
Well, they both won in landslides, unpredicted by the polls, and they had coattails that were substantial.
In Virginia, for example, Democrats went from a bare majority of 51 seats in the lower house of the state legislature to 64 seats in the lower house of the state legislature.
They haven't been there since the late 1980s, back when Democrats used to run the state legislature easily.
But the second most important thing that often is revealing or more revealing than who wins is what's the margin and how has the margin for the winner changed since the last presidential election just a year ago?
unidentified
Now, Trump won easily throughout Tennessee.
It was an overwhelming victory for Trump.
And in that particular district, Tennessee 7, he won by 22 percentage points.
So we're all going to be looking at the results.
I tend to think, I wouldn't put a lot of money on it, but I think the Republican will keep that seat.
But we're looking to see, is it 22 points or is it 11 points or is it five points?
I think C-SPAN probably should have a guy called Nathan Taylor from, I don't know if you're familiar with Election Truth Alliance, but he has been doing statistical research and models from countries that manipulate elections.
And it shows like for all the swing states he's been doing statistically, it seems like North Carolina, for instance, he said like 100% of all the counties had a higher turnout for Trump than anything else.
Is there something that should be looked into?
Because it seems like it seems that like who's also doing something about telling you like voter like hand counts versus the regular computer manipulation, things like inconsistencies.
But if you look it up, if you're not familiar with him, it's Nathan Taylor from Election Truth Alliance, because, you know, states like North Carolina, like if you look, he was saying something about, like, if you look at the past elections, like 2016 and 2020, the difference between the governor and the final count, the governor and the presidential, it's like maybe 20 to 30,000 votes between 2016 to 2020.
And this last election was over 100 and some thousand difference less.
I have more confidence in the systems that we use, the machines we use, the methods of involving both parties or multiple parties, depending on the state or locality, in supervising the elections and counting the ballots and all the rest.
That's not to say that there is never any instance of fraud, but on the whole, we have a very solid system that people can and should have confidence in.
unidentified
Now, as to your question here, it's always worth examining.
And I welcome, I think most people in this field welcome people examining the statistics of the election, the way they're conducted.
There are always improvements that can be made.
And you look over the course of American history, we've had tremendous improvements.
There was once very substantial fraud in some areas of the United States.
You couldn't really trust the election results.
I don't think that's true anymore, at least in the vast majority of places.
So we need to have confidence in our system overall, even as we question parts that we think can be improved.
unidentified
Now, as to the specifics of that gentleman's suggestion, I'll look up the person he was referring to.
One thing that he did mention that I recognize is that people voting for governor versus people voting for president.
You have something called ballot drop off, sometimes called ballot falloff, in which people come into the ballot place and maybe they only want to vote for president.
And you have a percent or two or three that just vote for president and they leave.