| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| You all cover the list of that. | ||
| On the food piece of that, and talking about food insecurity and understanding what we are facing as a nation. | ||
| And an important role of the government is to provide that safety nest for those with the least among us. | ||
| Today, I think New York announced that they can't continue taking new enrollees because of the government shutdown in SNAP in our food stamp program. | ||
| We're going to run out of money in two weeks. | ||
| So, you're talking about millions and millions of vulnerable families, of hungry families that are not going to have access to these programs because of this shutdown. | ||
| So, yes, all of our research and reports are shut down now, unless it is relating directly to national security, like the screw worm, and which is another topic we'll probably talk about another time, and some of the other animal disease issues. | ||
| But we continue to remain focused on doing everything we can to move these funds out as long as we can. | ||
| But that is coming to an end. | ||
| It's time to open the government back up and serve the American people. | ||
| Thank you all. | ||
|
unidentified
|
They're deciding now. | |
| Thank you, Dr. Thank you all so much. | ||
|
unidentified
|
You've been watching live coverage. | |
| We return now to our scheduled program. | ||
| We joined it in progress. | ||
| In the Democratic primary, it's going to be who can win. | ||
| You know, and there are different theories about how you do that. | ||
| I think that Newsom has won 2025 among the Democratic 28 candidates, I think, unequivocally. | ||
| I mean, they were all at 3-4-5 at the beginning of the year, and now he's in the 20s in states where he has no intrinsic connection. | ||
| But that doesn't mean he's going to win, you know, the nomination in the end. | ||
| I mean, you know, if your primary concern is electability, you will like the way that as a Democratic voter, you will like the way he's trying to moderate on cultural issues that have hurt the party, and you'll be worried about nominating a guy from California and San Francisco who wears really nice suits. | ||
| Shapiro is kind of, and Bashir are kind of like, Shapiro is really running kind of, I think, the opposite end as a likely 28 candidate where he's mostly staying out of the fight, which I think they believe will allow him to run up the score in 26 in Pennsylvania and you know, make the case: look, we can win if we just hold the 19 states we've been winning and add Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin back to the mix. | ||
| We can win one more time that way, and I can do that. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Questions? | |
| I'm sure we have some. | ||
| We've got some folks with mics too. | ||
| Hi, thank you. | ||
| Little, I guess, just opinions instead of direct question, but I'm thinking about Texas, the fact that it's a swing state. | ||
| I'm a Texan originally, and that's just kind of a crazy thing to think about. | ||
| You mentioned low population density success for Trump, and then non-white voters success. | ||
| I'm thinking about non-white religious voters, especially Catholics in Texas. | ||
| Can you just talk about Texas and its potential in the next couple years a little bit more? | ||
| Go ahead. | ||
| I was just going to say, Texas is Democrats' white whale, and it will be until they catch it. | ||
| I was the House reporter in 2020 when that was the front lines of the battle for the House. | ||
| Democrats invested millions of dollars in flipping these, the seats that you were talking about, Ron, these exurban, suburban seats with a lot of highly college-educated voters in there, growing population, the type of districts where they really ran up the score in 18, and they got blanked. | ||
| They got swept in every single one of those races. | ||
| And we actually just had a reporter, again, to shout out James Downs, down in the Rio Grande Valley right now, which is the only kind of swingy area over there. | ||
| He was in Laredo with Henry Queyar. | ||
| He was down in McAllen in the Vincente Gonzalez district as well. | ||
| And how the Democratic Party tries to peel bat the Republican gains with Latino voters especially, that's going to decide Texas. | ||
| Like more than this redraw that's been going on right now. | ||
| Jeff and I were talking beforehand that it has the makings of what could be a dummy mander by getting the margins just a little bit smaller. | ||
| Is this Latino voter shift a permanent feature? | ||
| Is it sticky or is it a rental? | ||
| We'll know a lot more after 26. | ||
| But if the Texas is going to be more of a battlefield, it's going to be because Democrats made up that ground with Latino voters. | ||
| Texas has stalled out for Democrats. | ||
| I mean, from 2014, Wendy Davis to 16 with Hillary, then 18 with Betto, and then 20 with Biden, through 18, you saw big improvement in the metros. | ||
| And the Texas Metros were behaving more like metros that we've seen in other places that have become more swing, whether it was Colorado and Virginia and the aughts or Arizona and Georgia more recently. | ||
| But they've kind of stalled out. | ||
| I mean, Biden did win all four metros, the first Democrats since LBJ, Biden in 2020. | ||
| But the whole backlash on immigration and crime and just kind of general perception of leftiness under Biden, I think has really set them back. | ||
| And I think they are not quite starting over, but a long way towards starting over. | ||
| And it doesn't feel like, you know, in 2018 and 2020, in 2018 and 2020, you can imagine a scenario where Democrats were going to compete for it in 24. | ||
| You really could. | ||
| When Clinton got elected, he appointed a guy named John Emerson, who later went on to be Obama's ambassador to Germany, as basically the California ombudsman in the White House. | ||
| Because Clinton winning California in 92 was like a big deal. | ||
| I mean, Republicans had won it six straight going back to 68. | ||
| And he appointed someone to just focus on improving their position in California. | ||
| And I thought Biden, like after 2020, was going to do something like, could have done something like that in Texas. | ||
| And instead, the opposite happened. | ||
| They lost ground. | ||
| They lost a lot of ground. | ||
| And I think, you know, even after 20, even in 22, an incredible percentage of pro-choice voters voted for Abbott after they passed the restrictive abortion man because they were just recoiling from Democrats on so many other things. | ||
| So I think they got a long way to go in Texas. | ||
| And one of the things that's probably going to help with that is if the Republicans nominate Ken Paxton and the Senate race there. | ||
| That could be competing. | ||
| Yeah, if that we're doing our power rankings right now, we're updating our power rankings on the House, Senate, and Gov race is most likely to flip. | ||
| And the one consistent thing that we've seen throughout this entire reporting process is the elephant in the room is a Patston nomination in Texas because that could have down ballot implications as well, maybe even like a Fed, the governor's race as well. | ||
| We're going to publish all those actually, I believe the first week in November, we're doing a big special edition election preview one year out. | ||
| I think there's QR codes throughout the room to update on that. | ||
| But I'm really excited that we're working on that. | ||
| But Paxton is kind of the big X factor there. | ||
| In the nightmare scenarios for democracy, Texas seems the place most possible where if there is a narrow Democratic win and Trump pressures the governor not to certify it, or the state not to certify it in the Senate race. | ||
| Not hard to imagine. | ||
| If somebody beats Paxton, they're going to beat him by an eyelash if he's the nominee. | ||
| They're not going to be Corny. | ||
| But if Paxton's the nominee, as you say, and they have a chance of beating him, it will be by an eyelash. | ||
| And then I bet we are looking at like a big crisis in Texas because I think Abbott has shown that there is probably nothing he's going to say no to. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Right. | |
| Yep, back there. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Great presentation. | |
| There's three other states you haven't talked about, and that would be Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia that are marginals. | ||
| Talk about where those are headed both to the midterms and 2026. | ||
| So, you know, as I said, as I mentioned, you know, if Democrats in 2028 win the 19 states that have voted for them in each of the last four elections and restore Michigan, Pennsylvania, it's just kind of the new blue wall, there's like a new blue wall developing, and you restore Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin to that, you get to 270 exactly. | ||
| But that will not be true in 2032. | ||
| In 2032, that the Democratic states lose enough votes that you have to add something else. | ||
| And those are the three states, you would basically have to win one of those three, plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. | ||
| And, you know, look, the long-term trend is that Democrats are improving in the white-collar suburbs of those states as they have been earlier in Colorado and Virginia and before that in the 90s, New Jersey, California, and Illinois, which were all Republican states back in the 80s and 70s. | ||
| I mean, basically, over the last 30 years, as states, if Democrats have become more competitive states, the same two things have happened. | ||
| More white college graduates are voting Democratic and the minority population is growing. | ||
| So in 24, both of those things kind of fell apart. | ||
| Like the college graduates did not collapse, but they slightly ebbed back because they were pissed off about inflation also. | ||
| And then Trump kind of picked the lock on blue-collar minorities. | ||
| So whether Republicans can sustain that is a real open question. | ||
| I think the answer is it's not going to go back to where it was under Obama for Democrats, but it's not guaranteed to stay as high as it was for Trump in 24. | ||
| And I think Democrats are going to be in a position where they are capable of winning statewide presidential governor in all three of those states, but hardly guaranteed to do so. | ||
| And the key will be both restoring the suburban margins and pushing back a little at the inroads that Trump made among non-college non-whites. | ||
| By the way, again, on that point, on the non-college non-whites, Trump won about a quarter of them in 2020 based on all of the various exit polls. | ||
| In 24, the vote cast and the exit poll gave him 35% of them. | ||
| And Pew, which recently ran the numbers for me, they never published them before, and the validated voters gave him 39% of non-college non-whites. | ||
| His approval rating among non-college non-whites is now back to 25 or 26 in everything. | ||
| New York Times, Siena, Washington Post, Ipsos, that's where he is. | ||
| So he was somewhere between 35 and 39% of the vote in 24. | ||
| His approval is now 25, 26, lower on the economy. | ||
| Immigration is starting to chafe at some of his Hispanic support, you know, deportation. | ||
| I don't think Republicans are going to match that height in 26, but that doesn't necessarily tell you what's going to happen in 28 since most of the gains were among low-propensity voters who aren't likely to vote at all. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, I think the big variable there is whether those voters stay home or whether they vote Democrat. | |
| Yeah. | ||
| Any more hands? | ||
| Back of the room. | ||
| What are some under-the-radar Senate races we should watch in the next year? | ||
| I think one of the most interesting ones, again, we're doing these power rankings right now, and the two that really come up a lot are Iowa and potentially Kansas. | ||
| Not necessarily areas that you would expect Democrats to compete in. | ||
| Iowa has a very competitive open governor's race right now and now is an open Senate race as well after Joni Ernst retired. | ||
| Kansas could get interesting, especially after this week's developments on the redistricting front. | ||
| Sharice Davids, who is the lone Democrat, has been threatening to run statewide as well. | ||
| I don't think she would necessarily beat Roger Marshall. | ||
| If Texas doesn't happen, like if Patsy doesn't get the nomination there, Democrats are going to be looking for another race to try to get that magic fourth flip to flip the Senate. | ||
| Watch for Kansas and Iowa, especially these next few weeks here. | ||
| You know, I go through my schizophrenia, like, you know, on door number one, just kind of conventional political analysis, like what races we should be focusing on. | ||
| Door number two is: does the election look anything like all the other elections in American history? | ||
| Like, you know, like in scenarios, like to consider, there is that possibility that it will be something completely different with ICE and National Guard troops routinely outside of polling places in Democratic cities, you know, which probably wouldn't affect the House that much but could affect the Senate. | ||
| The Justice Department suing states to require voter purges. | ||
| Like, there's a lot of stuff that can happen that would take us into very different places where, you know, our assumption that the normal forces of politics, the president's approval rating, the state of the economy, the quality of the candidates, the amount of spending are going to be the decisive factors. | ||
| And I'd still on balance bet that is the case. | ||
| But there is another scenario where we're dealing with a whole different set of challenges. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Dan Osborne is another one I'd point to in Nebraska. | |
| Osborne. | ||
| Dean door number one. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Door number one. | |
| Door number one. | ||
| Osborne polled ahead of Deb Fisher for a good chunk of last year. | ||
| He ran as an independent. | ||
| Fisher ended up winning by eight or nine. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| This time he's running against Pete Ricketts, the former governor who was appointed. | ||
| Ricketts is not going to get caught with his guard down, but it's a very different environment right now. | ||
| Osborne could have some wind at his back this time as opposed to running in what looked to be a neutral or at least Republican, slightly Republican-leaning environment last time around. | ||
| So that's another one I'm looking at. | ||
| That's a state where, like, do I expect Osborne to win? | ||
| No, not really. | ||
| But it's one of those where all of a sudden it could scare the Republicans, the NRSC, into spending several million dollars they didn't have to spend or didn't think they would have to spend in a state like that. | ||
| And if you want to talk more Senate races, I think Nicholas Anastasio, our Senate correspondent, is in the back somewhere right now. | ||
| Please pin him down. | ||
| He'll talk your ear off about Senate races. | ||
| We do all the time. | ||
| What's the most likely third? | ||
| If it's Cooper, if it's North Carolina and Collins, what would you say is the most likely third seat for Democrats? | ||
| I would probably say it has to be Texas at that point. | ||
| More than Iowa or Regional. | ||
|
unidentified
|
But we're also betting they're going to hold Georgia and hold Michigan in that scenario. | |
| No bargaining. | ||
| All things being equal, which is, again, an open seat in Michigan and the Georgia race is going to be very tough. | ||
| Democrats dodged the bullet there with Brian Tebb not running there. | ||
| But I think whoever's going to merge from that Republican primary is going to be well-funded, ready to rot. | ||
| I think it would be Texas, but a lot of things have to fall into place. | ||
| You know, in 2018, Trump was under 50 in Arizona and Colorado where Democrats won. | ||
| He was over 50 in his approval in North Dakota, Indiana, Florida, and Missouri, where Republicans won. | ||
| Now, Manchin, Sherrod Brown, and Tester survived in states where he was over 50. | ||
| But it is entirely possible that Trump could sink Republicans in Michigan and Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, but help them in North Carolina and Georgia. | ||
| Like both things could be true at the same time. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah. | |
| Other questions? | ||
| In the back? | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| Any thoughts on the Ohio race? | ||
| I feel like we maybe didn't talk about that one at all. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I just to Sherrod Brown have a shot. | |
| It's going to be tough. | ||
| It's going to be very difficult for Sherrod Brown right now. | ||
| You know, we're doing, he, John, who said, is the appointed one. | ||
| He hasn't won an election yet. | ||
| He's the former lieutenant governor. | ||
| It's just Ohio's just going to be really tough right now. | ||
| And it doesn't look like Brown's going to raise money. | ||
| He's going to get some enthusiasm up. | ||
| But just today, you saw another union group who backed Brown throughout his entire tenure in Ohio politics, endorsed the Republican there. | ||
| I think you're going to see that a lot more. | ||
| You know, George Condon is here right now, our resident Ohio expert. | ||
| He can talk to you a little bit more intelligently than I can about the particulars of Ohio politics. | ||
| But the only thing that I think might help out is if the pro-crypto money doesn't necessarily come in here, there might be some indication that it might not be coming in as forcefully against him this time around. | ||
| I don't know for sure, though. | ||
| That could change on a dime here. | ||
| It's just not going to be the same level of marquee race that it was last year because he's no longer an incumbent. | ||
| And there's a lot more cheaper pickup opportunities, like a Kansas and Iowa. | ||
| If Mary Peltola decides to run in Alaska against Dan Sullivan, that's a race I can see people getting invested in. | ||
| But that Ohio race is just going to be so difficult because it's all those trends that Ron has been talking about are against the Democrats are happening in Ohio. | ||
| Yeah, I mean, you would need, you know, you would need the college white-collar suburban backlash against Trump to be even more intense than it was in 2018, which is not inconceivable, you know, but you need Franklin County and places like that to really deliver. | ||
| You kind of need the map of the abortion referenda a few years ago, is what he needs, where you had huge turnout and huge margins. | ||
| And even in the rep, I mean, even in the Republican suburbs, like outside, was it Delaware County, outside of Cincinnati? | ||
| You know, that's what you need because the rural thing is going to be the white small town blue collar is going to be really powerful for the Republicans. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, folks, thanks everyone for joining us. | |
| The bar will remain open and the good political minds around the room will also remain open for your further conversations. | ||
| Thanks very much. | ||
| Thank you all. | ||
| Thank you, guys. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Coming up later today here on C-SPAN, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is expected to talk to reporters about the Democrats' position as the shutdown continues for a third week. | |
| Also, today on the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, President Trump will make an announcement from the White House set for 3 p.m. Eastern. | ||
| And then at 4, a discussion about rebuilding Ukraine amid its more than three-year-long war with Russia. | ||
| We'll bring you all of that and more live here on C-SPAN. | ||
| On the premiere of C-SPAN's Ceasefire, Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Ram Emmanuel reflected on their unexpected friendship and found common ground on one of the world's most pressing issues: Israel and Hamas. | ||
| And I have no problem with it. | ||
| President Trump deserves credit here. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Some of my party won't say that. | |
| I'm grateful for Ron speaking plainly about giving President Trump credit here. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Friday, governors from opposite ends of the political map come together from Deep Red Oklahoma to solid blue, Maryland. | |
| Democratic Governor Wes Moore and Republican Governor Kevin Stitt sit down with host Dasha Burns. | ||
| Welcome to Ceasefire, where we seek to bridge the divide in American politics. | ||
|
unidentified
|
For a conversation, not a confrontation. | |
| Red meets blue. | ||
| Great Plains meets Mid-Atlantic Friday, October 17th at 7 p.m. Eastern and Pacific. | ||
| Ceasefire, only on C-SPAN. | ||
| Tonight, we'll bring you the first debate in the New York City mayor's race, with less than three weeks to go before Election Day. | ||
| Democrat Zorhan Mamdani, Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa are all expected to participate. | ||
| Watch the debate in full at 9 p.m. Eastern on C-SPAN. | ||
| It will also be available on the C-SPAN Now video app and online at c-span.org. | ||
| I saw you interviewed the other night. | ||
| I watched it about two o'clock in the morning. | ||
| There was a little thing called C-SPAN, which I don't know how many people were watching. | ||
| Don't worry, you were in prime time too, but they happened to have a little rerun. | ||
| Do you really think that we don't remember what just happened last week? | ||
| Thank goodness for C-SPAN, and we all should review the tape. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Everyone wonders when they're watching C-SPAN what the conversations are on the floor. | |
| I'm about to read to you something that was published by C-SPAN. | ||
| There's a lot of things that Congress fights about, that they disagree on. | ||
|
unidentified
|
We can all watch that on C-SPAN. | |
| Millions of people across the country tuned into C-SPAN. | ||
| That was a made-for-C-SPAN moment. | ||
| If you watch on C-SPAN, you're going to see me physically across the aisle every day, just trying to build relationships and try to understand their perspective and find common ground. | ||
| And welcome forward to everybody watching. |