| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
|
unidentified
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Moore and Oklahoma Republican Governor Kevin Stitt sit down together with host Dasha Burns. | |
| Ceasefire Friday at 7 p.m. Eastern and Pacific, only on C-SPAN. | ||
| This Sunday, watch the premiere of C-SPAN's bold new original series, America's Book Club, with our guest, John Grisham, former politician, lawyer, and best-selling author, whose books including A Time to Kill, The Firm, and The Pelican Brief. | ||
| He joins our host, renowned author and civic leader David Rubenstein. | ||
| We just sold the film much of the firm to Paramount for more money than made in 10 years of production law. | ||
| After you heard that, how long after that did you quit the practice alone? | ||
| 15 minutes. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Watch America's Book Club with John Grisham, Sunday at 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. Eastern and Pacific, only on C-SPAN. | |
| Cliff Young is back with us now. | ||
| He oversees polling and society trend data for Ipsos Public Affairs and joins us today with new data on how Americans are viewing the ongoing government shutdown in day 13 now. | ||
| Cliff Young, what did you find? | ||
| Who are Americans blaming for the impasse that we continue to find ourselves in? | ||
| Well, it's really a pocket on all their houses, right? | ||
| Whether it be Donald Trump, whether it be the Republicans, whether it be the Democrats, about two-thirds of Americans say each of them is responsible or have a large degree of responsibility for the shutdown. | ||
| Now, you know, if we were to force it, we were to force choice that we were to force Americans or respondents to rank order, we'd find that the Republicans are a little bit more responsible than Democrats. | ||
| But overall, there's a lot of large degree of consternation and critique of what's going on today. | ||
|
unidentified
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How worried are Americans, outside of maybe federal workers, that this shutdown is going to impact them specifically? | |
| Yeah, there's always worry, right? | ||
| And we're in a moment right now of heightened uncertainty, lots of trepidation about what's going to happen, especially with tariffs, looking at inflation, the pocketbooks, right? | ||
| This all sort of goes into this overall worry. | ||
|
unidentified
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About 49% of Americans are worried that their benefits like Social Security will be stopped or discontinued for a time. | |
| And that's at historic levels, right? | ||
| We found similar numbers in the past when we've had shutdowns. | ||
| So shutdowns writ large kind of reinforce Americans' sense of uncertainty and fear about the present. | ||
|
unidentified
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The president has threatened and has started to carry out additional layoffs in the federal government during the shutdown. | |
| Here's the headline from the Washington Times. | ||
| Trump turns up the pressure with 4,000 federal layoffs. | ||
| The layoffs coming in places like the Department of Education, the Department of Commerce, and others. | ||
| What has been Americans' reaction to additional federal government job cuts during the shutdown? | ||
| Did you poll on that? | ||
| Yes, we did. | ||
| And what we found at the beginning of the year, there was much more gusto for it, right? | ||
|
unidentified
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Much more support for cuts for making the government more efficient. | |
| That's tapered off a bit. | ||
| And so when we compare our poll today with the poll, let's say, polls at the beginning of the year, it's declined in support. | ||
| And so looking at questions, widespread layoffs, only about a third of Americans are in favor of it today. | ||
| 40% of them were in favor of it in March and April. | ||
| More specifically, even Republicans who really supported it at the beginning of the year, they were in the 70s in terms of their support. | ||
| That's fallen to 62%. | ||
| Still a majority are in favor of it, but you don't have the same sort of, once again, energy behind that sort of initiative or policy orientation. | ||
|
unidentified
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If the shutdown goes another 13 days, what are you going to be watching for in your next set of polling on this? | |
| Same numbers. | ||
| To what extent, what is the blame game? | ||
|
unidentified
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Who's responsible? | |
| Because that'll force an eventual end to the shutdown. | ||
| I would think, politically speaking, right, the side that really feels like they're being pressured, especially politically from a public opinion perspective, might cave a bit or might seed a bit. | ||
|
unidentified
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We also have numbers on a relative degree of worry. | |
| If those worry numbers go up, kind of where those support numbers go down, typically there's not much support for government shutdown. | ||
| Those are extreme sort of groups and individuals that actually support it. | ||
| But we'll be looking at relative optimism on the one hand and to what extent responsibility shifts over time. | ||
| Phone numbers for folks to call in. | ||
| We've got a special line for federal workers. | ||
| 2027 488003 is that number. | ||
|
unidentified
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Otherwise, phone numbers for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, as usual, we've got Cliff Young for about another 20 minutes here this morning. | |
| We just finished watching the president's speech at the Knesset. | ||
| Probably a bit too early for you to have polling numbers on that. | ||
|
unidentified
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But as somebody who studies public opinion, what are you going to be asking people in the wake of this speech, in the wake of this ceasefire and attempted peace deal? | |
| Yeah, we'll be doing two things, right? | ||
| First and foremost, it's a significant event. | ||
| It's one of those events which we can say a priori before knowing anything else. | ||
| It is qualitatively different than your average sort of foreign policy event, right? | ||
| The question is what impact will it have? | ||
| Now, some of the questions we're going to ask will be questions around the event itself, favorability towards it, feelings towards it, whether they think there's a long-term solution, kind of like that, let's say, cluster of questions. | ||
| We'll also be looking at his numbers. | ||
| Does it improve President Trump's numbers, his approval numbers over time? | ||
| Where are they right now? | ||
| They're in the mid to low 40s. | ||
|
unidentified
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They've been hovering there. | |
| Polls bounce around a bit, but if you take the average of all the polls out there, not just Ipsus, but all of us, he's around 43%, 44%, 42%. | ||
|
unidentified
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That's a pretty good place relative to where he was in 2017. | |
| Obviously, there's a lot of doubts or uncertainty relative to tariffs and the potential inflationary aspect of tariffs in Q4 and next year. | ||
| But right now, he's in a fairly good place. | ||
| I will be looking at his foreign policy numbers, his national security numbers. | ||
| If we see a bump in the short to medium term, we'll see a bump there. | ||
|
unidentified
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And just one last point: not taking, let's say, a peace deal, but a significant foreign policy event in the last little bit. | |
| We can think of Obama, Obama's administration, and killing Osama bin Battladen. | ||
|
unidentified
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That had a significant impact on his numbers when it came to national security. | |
| We'll be looking for the same sort of thing with this peace deal. | ||
| During his 65-minute address to the Knesset, President Trump talked about a lot of different things, but he mentioned the war in Ukraine and saying on Russian and the Ukrainian war, we'll get a deal done. | ||
| Does his ability to make progress here, a ceasefire, and now a potential path to a full-on peace deal when it comes to Gaza and Israel, do you think that will impact public sentiment for the ability to end a different war, Ukraine and Russia? | ||
| Yeah, I think that there's a potential positive halo effect. | ||
| He seems like he's in his element when he's talking about deals. | ||
| He feels very comfortable. | ||
| He was comfortable speaking about it. | ||
|
unidentified
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He knows how to do it, at least in a different context. | |
| He had good effect in this specific case. | ||
| Again, it would be a significant event to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. | ||
| But then again, foreign policy, national security are not the number one issue or number two or even number three issues here in the United States today. | ||
| Americans are worried about domestic issues. | ||
| So while on the margins I could see a positive impact, he reinforces maybe his image as a deal maker, as a leader. | ||
| That doesn't necessarily translate into significantly higher approval ratings, at least at this point, looking forward. | ||
|
unidentified
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On issues Americans are most worried about, what's the number one concern right now? | |
| The number one concern, at least by our polling, Ipsus polling, is political extremism. | ||
|
unidentified
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By the way, that predates the Charlie Kirk assassination. | |
| Americans were already worried about that. | ||
| That historically had been a Democratic issue. | ||
| It's increasingly an independent and Republican issue as well. | ||
| They define it differently. | ||
| Obviously, Republicans define it right now as political extremism, political violence. | ||
|
unidentified
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Democrats define it more as Trump being authoritarian. | |
| So there's a differential definition of it, but that's the number one issue today. | ||
| And number two, it's the economy and cost of living. | ||
| Americans still are worried about that. | ||
| And in third place is immigration. | ||
| And that obviously is the Republican bailiwick, Trump's bailiwick. | ||
|
unidentified
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That's what he won in 2016. | |
| And he's ridden that wave ever since. | ||
|
unidentified
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A lot more to dig into from the numbers, but let me try to get you some calls in the last 10 minutes or so with you. | |
| This is Skip out of Michigan Republican. | ||
| You're on with Cliff Young of Ipsos. | ||
| Sir, Mr. Young, I'd like to know what program you're using in polling. | ||
| If you're going to be taking many calls or anything out of New York or California or the East, it's going to be a lot different from the heartland, from the Midwest. | ||
| I'd like to know it because you can hear through this East Band how partisan the Democrats are. | ||
| They would hate Trump on a sunny day saying we don't like sun. | ||
| You know, I got your point. | ||
| So the question's on methodology. | ||
| Yeah, we want to represent America. | ||
| And so that means we include New York, California, Florida, Texas, and all the states in between. | ||
|
unidentified
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Different polling firms use different ways of getting to people. | |
| Some telephone, some knock on the door. | ||
| In our case at Ipsos, our primary methodology is first knocking on the door, sending snail mail, and recruiting you to a panel and talking with you over time. | ||
|
unidentified
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We know where you live. | |
| In other words, you're not a bot, right? | ||
| And that's super important. | ||
|
unidentified
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That's important for the robustness and quality of the information. | |
| But all pollsters want a representative sample of the population, making sure we have, you know, the correct number of Democrats, the correct number of Republicans, and the correct number of all those in between. | ||
| This is Virginia out of California, Independent. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Good morning. | |
| You're on with Cliff Young of Ipsos. | ||
| Oh, yes. | ||
| Hi. | ||
| I just had a concern about keeping this man in power. | ||
| He's not fit to be president of the United States in my feelings and heart. | ||
| And I just wish that we could impeach him. | ||
| And hopefully that'll follow through at some point within these next three years. | ||
| Sooner the better. | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| Cliff Young on appetite for impeachment. | ||
| Well, it's fairly low, but we haven't asked that question as of late. | ||
| I'm sure if we were to ask it, you'd have a high proportion of Democrats saying yes. | ||
| You know, overall, you know, Democrats are worried that he is authoritarian in nature or in tendency. | ||
| He breaks world rules. | ||
| He thwarts convention. | ||
|
unidentified
|
It seems like the caller sort of represents that thread. | |
| What have you found in polling on the deployments of National Guard to U.S. cities? | ||
| Well, first and foremost, Americans are afraid or worried about crime, right? | ||
| I'm not worried about crime in my city, but I'm worried about crime in your city. | ||
| So it's a proximity issue. | ||
| The closer I am to something, the less I'm worried. | ||
| So if I'm living far away from big cities, I think big cities are much more dangerous than they actually are. | ||
|
unidentified
|
And so we have to keep that in mind, right? | |
| There's this proximity issue. | ||
| Overall, Americans are not in favor of the deployment of National Guard troops. | ||
| If you look at, independent of how we ask the question, it varies. | ||
| Support varies from 20% to 30% or so. | ||
| Now, when you peel away the onion and you look at party, like party identification or party persuasion, a super majority of Republicans are in favor of it, and only a slight minority of Democrats. | ||
| So really, it's a tale of two worlds, a tale of two Americas, but ultimately kind of broad-based fear of crime. | ||
| That proximity issue, does it help explain why people really don't like Congress, but people generally re-elect their congressperson? | ||
| Yes. | ||
| I mean, there are questions that we've repeated over the last 70 years, that is the polling industry, exactly referring to your congressman or woman versus the other. | ||
| I always love my congressperson, always. | ||
| They're awesome. | ||
| I know them. | ||
| They lived on the street. | ||
| You know, John or Jane was a baker before they became a congressperson, right? | ||
| But I don't trust yours. | ||
| To Fred in New Orleans, this is the Republican line. | ||
| Fred, you're on with Cliff Young. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yes, good morning, Clifford. | |
| Since it appears that the crux of this whole shutdown issue is regular order and the Congress passing 12 appropriations bills, and this happens year in and year out. | ||
| Is there any recommendations or any thoughts that you might have that would incentivize Congress to get these appropriations bills done by October 1st so that there is no possibility of a shutdown? | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| I'll listen online. | ||
| I just think it's all about incentives. | ||
| Is there a consequence for shutting the government down? | ||
| And the consequence would be political. | ||
| Will you risk not being re-elected? | ||
| And the answer is no. | ||
|
unidentified
|
So right now, the system itself doesn't have a lot of incentives to course correct. | |
| The Washington Post editorial board last week made the point that they didn't think shutdowns were painful enough that the incentives aren't there for members of Congress to avoid a shutdown, so therefore it becomes a political tool that they've made sure that Social Security checks still go out. | ||
| We've found a way to pay military paychecks this month. | ||
| Many of the essential functions go on, and so relatively few Americans are actually impacted by a shutdown. | ||
| Have you found, in terms of that polling about people being impacted by the shutdown, that those numbers are increasing and you expect them to increase as we go for a few more days or weeks? | ||
| Yeah, I don't think they're, you know, in the past, we found basically that they were flatlined over the course of time. | ||
| Relative fear, the same level, relative optimism, the same level. | ||
| Who they blame basically stays the same. | ||
| Ultimately, this is an issue that worries people. | ||
| It's one more layer of worry, but they are focused on so many other things than this issue specifically. | ||
| There probably won't be a lot of pain felt by politicians. | ||
| And definitely, it's a difficult thing to run on when you have other more important things to run on, like immigration or making ends meet, as just two examples. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Dan is next out of Buffalo. | |
| Democrat, good morning. | ||
| Good morning. | ||
| My question is: why has nobody pointed a finger at the insurance industry itself? | ||
| The Democrats are saying they're holding up for their health care. | ||
| The Republicans are saying let's make that work through and we'll figure it out. | ||
| Why do the insurance companies have to double the premiums if the health care bill doesn't hold? | ||
| Nobody's holding a gun to their head. | ||
| So that's my question. | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| Let's poll the American people about their attitudes about the insurance industry, the for-profit insurance industry. | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| Cliff Young. | ||
| Well, they have middling numbers. | ||
| They're not the best industry. | ||
| They're not the worst industry. | ||
| They're somewhere in the middle. | ||
| We and others have pulled on them over the course of time. | ||
| I have to understand that. | ||
| When we think of the ACA, Obamacare, as, let's say, a grand consensus, or what I mean by that is the point where public opinion agreed, where you got a majority of individuals. | ||
| It was in this option, the option of having private sector insurance companies, insurance market. | ||
| That's what Americans were willing to tolerate. | ||
| And by the way, the polling hasn't changed much since then. | ||
| So there's not a lot of support for basically a publicly run health care system. | ||
| There isn't much support for just having it completely open, free, and fair, laissez-faire, let's say. | ||
| It's something in the middle, and obviously there's externalities or negative consequences any way you organize yourself. | ||
|
unidentified
|
You mentioned the best industries and the worst industries. | |
| What are some of the best industries in the mind of the public? | ||
| And what are some of the worst? | ||
| Technology. | ||
| I mean, technology. | ||
| So people love their smartphones, right? | ||
| They love their AI now, right? | ||
| They love how technology makes the world go. | ||
| And the more complicated industries are extraction industries, right? | ||
| Those industries that take from the ground and have environmental consequences. | ||
| They tend to have a more negative one. | ||
| Or industries that, or industries that produce products that have some sort of harmful effect on individuals, let's say like tobacco and others. | ||
| And so there are certain industries that have very negative views by people and others which have very positive. | ||
| And once again, insurance falls somewhere in between. | ||
| President Trump has vowed to make good on 100% tariffs on China, China threatening retaliation. | ||
|
unidentified
|
How does the American public view the fight over tariffs? | |
| I think that this specific back and forth with China is a lot of noise. | ||
| It doesn't mean they're not paying attention. | ||
| But generally speaking, they're worried. | ||
| They see tariffs as inflationary in nature. | ||
| And we've already seen behavior being sort of curbed, right? | ||
| They're stockpiling. | ||
| People are downsizing a bit at the household level. | ||
| And so there's this fear. | ||
| And when you talk to economists, whether at associations or banks, they're saying the real impact, we should wait for Q4 and the beginning of next year. | ||
| But overall, from a public opinion standpoint, people are worried about this. | ||
| Time for just one or two more phone calls here with Cliff Young of Ipsos polling. | ||
| By the way, all these polls that we've talked about, where can people find those if they want to see them for themselves? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Just our website, www.ipsos.com. | |
| This is Andrew Harewaiting in Kingsport, Tennessee. | ||
| Republican, go ahead. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yes. | |
| I think that this shutdown is just a democratic thing because that's the only thing they could fight with. | ||
| They were just objecting to the way that insurance was run. | ||
| But I don't even know anybody who has Obamacare. | ||
| I don't even know anybody at that point in the middle states. | ||
| I mean, it's maybe just on the East Coast where Obama was. | ||
| I'm not sure. | ||
| And I think that everybody that objects to President Trump is a Democrat because, I mean, he's the best president we've ever had. | ||
| He's doing the best any president has ever done. | ||
| And he's going around the world. | ||
| He was shot at. | ||
| He had his ear shot off. | ||
| And all he did was stand up and fight, fight, fight, you know. | ||
| And, you know, he's got the most courage, and he's the best thing that happened to America. | ||
| He's a businessman. | ||
| He didn't have politics. | ||
| And, you know, I don't think he's fighting for any politics. | ||
| He's just fighting for peace and people. | ||
| And he's the only president that's ever brought God to the surface in the White House. | ||
| That's Andrea in Tennessee. | ||
| Cliff Young, what do you want to pick up on? | ||
| Well, it's just when you look at the data, it's amazing, especially when you're looking at immigration or looking at crime as just the government shutdown. | ||
| It's as if we live in two different worlds. | ||
| We have the Democratic world, we have the Republican world that see the issues as completely different. | ||
| And I think this caller just represents the red thread, the Republican thread of that view. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Last call for Cliff Young. | |
| This is Billy in Crockett, Texas. | ||
| Democrat. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Good morning. | |
| Yes, good morning, C-SPAN. | ||
| I would like to say that what we're doing now does not really represent us because we're the world's leader. | ||
| We're America. | ||
| And we have different presidents that have problems at times. | ||
| But at this time, America will win because we're a nation of God. | ||
| And C-SPAN is a nation of God. | ||
| Thank you very much. | ||
| God bless you all. | ||
| That's Billy in Texas. | ||
| Cliff Young, final minute or so here. |