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| Cliff Young is back with us now. | ||
| He oversees polling and society trend data for Ipsos Public Affairs and joins us today with new data on how Americans are viewing the ongoing government shutdown in day 13 now. | ||
| Cliff Young, what did you find? | ||
| Who are Americans blaming for the impasse that we continue to find ourselves in? | ||
| Well, it's really a pocket on all their houses, right? | ||
| Whether it be Donald Trump, whether it be the Republicans, whether it be the Democrats, about two-thirds of Americans say each of them is responsible or have a large degree of responsibility for the shutdown. | ||
| Now, you know, if we were to force it, we were to force choice that we were to force Americans or respondents to rank order, we'd find that the Republicans are a little bit more responsible than Democrats. | ||
| But overall, there's a lot of large degree of consternation and critique of what's going on today. | ||
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How worried are Americans, outside of maybe federal workers, that this shutdown is going to impact them specifically? | |
| Yeah, there's always worry, right? | ||
| And we're in a moment right now of heightened uncertainty, lots of trepidation about what's going to happen, especially with tariffs, looking at inflation, the pocketbooks, right? | ||
| This all sort of goes into this overall worry. | ||
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About 49% of Americans are worried that their benefits like Social Security will be stopped or discontinued for a time. | |
| And that's at historic levels, right? | ||
| We found similar numbers in the past when we've had shutdowns. | ||
| So shutdowns writ large kind of reinforce Americans' sense of uncertainty and fear about the president. | ||
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The president has threatened and has started to carry out additional layoffs in the federal government during the shutdown. | |
| Here's the headline from the Washington Times: Trump turns up the pressure with 4,000 federal layoffs. | ||
| The layoffs coming in places like the Department of Education, the Department of Commerce, and others. | ||
| What has been Americans' reaction to additional federal government job cuts during the shutdown? | ||
| Did you poll on that? | ||
| Yes, we did. | ||
| And what we found at the beginning of the year, there was much more gusto for it, right? | ||
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Much more support for cuts for making the government more efficient. | |
| That's tapered off a bit. | ||
| And so when we compare our poll today with the poll, let's say, polls at the beginning of the year, it's declined in support. | ||
| And so looking at questions, widespread layoffs, only about a third of Americans are in favor of it today. | ||
| 40% of them were in favor of it in March and April. | ||
| More specifically, when you even Republicans who really supported it at the beginning of the year, they were in the 70s in terms of their support. | ||
| That's fallen to 62%. | ||
| Still a majority are in favor of it, but you don't have the same sort of, once again, energy behind that sort of initiative or policy orientation. | ||
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If the shutdown goes another 13 days, what are you going to be watching for in your next set of polling on this? | |
| Same numbers. | ||
| To what extent, what is the blame game? | ||
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Who's responsible? | |
| Because that'll force an eventual end to the shutdown. | ||
| One would think, politically speaking, right, the side that really feels like they're being pressured, especially politically from a public opinion's perspective, might cave a bit or might seed a bit. | ||
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We also have numbers on a relative degree of worry. | |
| If those worry numbers go up, kind of whether those support numbers go down. | ||
| Typically, there's not much support for government shutdown. | ||
| Those are extreme sort of groups and individuals that actually support it. | ||
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But we'll be looking at relative optimism on the one hand and to what extent responsibility shifts over time. | |
| Phone numbers for folks to call in. | ||
| We've got a special line for federal workers, 202748-8003 is that number. | ||
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Otherwise, phone numbers for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, as usual. | |
| We've got Cliff Young for about another 20 minutes here this morning. | ||
| We just finished watching the President's speech at the Knesset. | ||
| Probably a bit too early for you to have polling numbers on that. | ||
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But as somebody who studies public opinion, what are you going to be asking people in the wake of this speech, in the wake of this ceasefire and attempted peace deal? | |
| Yeah, we'll be doing two things, right? | ||
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First and foremost, it's a significant event. | |
| It's one of those events which we can say a priori before knowing anything else. | ||
| It is qualitatively different than your average sort of a foreign policy event, right? | ||
| The question is what impact will it have? | ||
| Now, some of the questions we're going to ask will be questions around the event itself, favorability towards it, feelings towards it, whether they think there's a long-term solution, it's kind of like that, let's say, cluster of questions. | ||
| We'll also be looking at his numbers. | ||
| Does it improve President Trump's numbers, his approval numbers over time? | ||
| Where are they right now? | ||
| They're in the mid to low 40s. | ||
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They've been hovering there. | |
| Polls bounce around a bit, but if you take the average of all the polls out there, not just Ipsus, but all of us, he's around 43%, 44%, 42%. | ||
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That's a pretty good place relative to where he was in 2017. | |
| Obviously, there's a lot of doubts or uncertainty relative to tariffs and the potential inflationary aspect of tariffs in Q4 and next year. | ||
| But right now, he's in a fairly good place. | ||
| I will be looking at his foreign policy numbers, his national security numbers. | ||
| If we see a bump in the short to medium term, we'll see a bump there. | ||
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And just one last point, not taking, let's say, a peace deal, but a significant foreign policy event in the last little bit. | |
| We can think of Obama, Obama's administration, and killing Osama bin Battladen. | ||
| That had a significant impact on his numbers when it came to national security. | ||
| We'll be looking for the same sort of thing with this peace deal. | ||
| During his 65-minute address to the Knesset, President Trump talked about a lot of different things, but he mentioned the war in Ukraine and saying on Russian and the Ukrainian war, we'll get a deal done. | ||
| Does his ability to make progress here, a ceasefire, and now a potential path to a full-on peace deal when it comes to Gaza and Israel, do you think that will impact public sentiment for the ability to end a different war, Ukraine and Russia? | ||
| Yeah, I think that there's a potential positive halo effect. | ||
| He seems like he's in his elements. | ||
| We are leaving this here to take you live to the nation's capital, where World Bank President Ajay Banga is speaking on the organization's priorities. | ||
| This is live coverage. |