We're going to be joined by Steve Newcomb of Axios via Zoom this morning.
Stephen Newcomb, how do we know if we're in for a short-term shutdown or something longer?
unidentified
Good morning, John.
I don't think we know yet.
I mean, I think, you know, you have to take a step back and look at what the push and pull and the pressure points on each party and each party leaders are right now.
I mean, for Republicans, I think the reality is that the polling shows that the public, at least before the shutdown, said they would blame Republicans, usually the party who is in power, that is in power, does shoulder a lot of the blame for a shutdown.
So if that sort of public sentiment continues to skew that way, I think that that puts pressure on Republicans to come to the negotiating table.
I also think that you should keep an eye out for a couple of the moderate Republicans in the Senate and how they react to any of the firings, the layoffs, the furloughs that President Trump and Russ Vogt and his administration decide to sort of implement during the shutdown.
And then on the Democratic side, you know, I think that they need to, one, have a conversation within themselves, how long and how comfortable are they willing to let this go on?
This is not something usually the Democratic Party would embrace.
And then again, look at some of those moderates, Gary Peters, the dex last night that voted for the bill in the Senate.
There's probably around seven or eight of them that you could keep an eye on and sort of pay attention to what length they're willing to take this shutdown.
That bill in the Senate was a continuing resolution to keep the government funded at current levels into November.
And it was supported by two Senate Democrats.
That would be John Fetterman and Catherine Cortez-Masto and Angus King, the independent from Maine, who caucuses with Democrats.
The Republican leadership hopes to keep putting that bill back on the floor and try to peel off more votes.
Why do they expect they might be able to get more than those three that caucus with Democrats on putting that on the floor one more time?
unidentified
Yeah, I think they see it as sort of a war of attrition.
I think you're looking at folks like the Democratic senators from New Hampshire, Maggie Hassen, Gene Shaheen, Gary Peters in Michigan, who's retiring, who voted to fund the government last time.
There's a number of other moderates, Jack Reed and Rhode Island.
So I think they see it as sort of an attrition thing.
They continue to put this on the floor.
Maybe Democrats will break.
But I would be shocked for them to flip their votes today or anytime later this week.
I think they'll vote through the weekend as well.
But something else to remember is that the Senate is just going to go about its business at this point as well.
I mean, we're just sort of settling into this shutdown at this point because later today, the Senate will be in, yes, voting on the funding bills, but also voting on nominations and sort of continuing the agenda that Senate Republicans have set up in the Senate.
Can you explain the politics behind the health care subsidies that are at the heart of this latest shutdown fight?
unidentified
Yeah, so the heart of it at this point is that Democrats want an extension of these expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year, which studies show, and I think insurers at this point have already communicated, is going to lead to an increase in premiums for a lot of folks across the board.
And Republicans, including Republican leadership, I think, have even acknowledged that, yeah, this is something that eventually the Republican Party will have to come to the table on because the polling is so bad for them on these types of cuts, and they don't want to pay for it in the 2026 midterms.
But the line so far from Republican leadership has been, yes, we can negotiate on these things, but only with the government open.
And we will not include these ACA subsidies in any conversation that has to do with this government funding saga and the shutdown.
Obviously, Democrats have tried to insert that as an issue at the negotiating table when it comes to this shutdown.
So we'll have to see if Republicans are willing to re-engage with Democrats on the issue of these subsidies in the context of reopening the government.
We're expected to hear from leadership on both sides starting just around the time this program ends at 10 a.m. Eastern.
What are you looking for?
What signals are going to determine the politics of this?
unidentified
I would see how Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, responds this morning.
I think that last night, right around the time of the shutdown, commencing right after midnight, he and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries put out a statement that was pretty much going after the president in a pretty personal manner, saying that he was unhinged.
I wonder if Democratic leaders continue to make that sort of a central part of their campaign in the shutdown, the erratic behavior of the president, the videos he's posting online.
Secretary Collins on VA Shutdown00:00:45
unidentified
So keep an eye on Democratic leaders and what they choose to message and how clear and the clarity of that message in getting it across.