| Speaker | Time | Text |
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They're a neighbors. | |
| They have to coexist. | ||
| And in our context with ECOWAS countries and African Union, we're always highlighting the need to ensure fully fledged participation of this trio in the work of the African Union and the relevant regional integrational associations. | ||
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Thank you so much. | |
| We're funded by these television companies and more, including Charter Communications. | ||
| Charter is proud to be recognized as one of the best internet providers. | ||
| And we're just getting started, building 100,000 miles of new infrastructure to reach those who need it most. | ||
| Charter Communications supports C-SPAN as a public service, along with these other television providers, giving you a front-row seat to democracy. | ||
| I'm Dasha Burns, host of Ceasefire, bridging the divide in American politics. | ||
|
unidentified
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Ceasefire premieres October 10th. | |
| Joining us now to discuss President Trump's shift on Ukraine policy is Christine Berzina. | ||
| She is a geostrategist, North American manager, managing director at the German Marshall Fund. | ||
| Christine, thank you so much for joining us again on the program. | ||
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unidentified
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Great to be here. | |
| We'll start with having you talk about the German Marshall Fund. | ||
| Explain to our audience the mission and who you work with. | ||
|
unidentified
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So the German Marshall Fund of the United States, we have a very long name, we are a nonpartisan organization here in Washington, D.C., but also in various offices across Europe. | |
| And we streak to facilitate transatlantic cooperation. | ||
| We have come from the tradition of the Marshall Plan. | ||
| In the 70s, the organization was founded in a way as a living memorial to the Marshall Plan, and we still work in the transatlantic space today. | ||
| The transatlantic space also includes NATO. | ||
| It was NATO and the UN, and it was President Trump who attended the UN General Assembly, taking place this week in New York after he had a meeting with Ukraine President Zelensky. | ||
| He posted a statement on Truth Social. | ||
| And for those who may not have seen it, I want to read it and then we'll get your reaction to it. | ||
| This is the post. | ||
| It says, after getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine-Russia military and economic situation, and after seeing the economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form with time, patience, and financial support of Europe and in particular NATO. | ||
| The original borders from where this war started is very much an option. | ||
| Why not? | ||
| Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years of war that should have taken real, that should have taken real military power less than a week to win. | ||
| This is not distinguishing Russia. | ||
| Russia, in fact, it is very much making them look like a, quote, paper tiger. | ||
| When the people living in Moscow and all of the great cities, towns, and districts all throughout Russia find out what has really been going on with this war, the fact that it's almost impossible for them to get gasoline through very long lines that are formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their war economy where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has great spirit and is only getting better. | ||
| Ukraine would be able to take back their country in its original form. | ||
| And who knows, maybe go even further than that. | ||
| Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble. | ||
| And this is the time for Ukraine to act. | ||
| In any event, I wish both countries well. | ||
| We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want to want with them. | ||
| Good luck to all. | ||
| Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. | ||
| Your reaction to that post. | ||
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unidentified
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Well, this was a very large piece of news in the transatlantic security space. | |
| Since the beginning of the Trump administration, there and this time around, there's this huge question. | ||
| Well, what does Trump really think about who's responsible for the war in Ukraine? | ||
| How much will the U.S. try to help Ukraine win? | ||
| Who's going to pay for it? | ||
| And now in the second half of this year, so many of those pieces have fallen into place. | ||
| Right there in that post, there is a allusion to the fact that it isn't the U.S. giving free weapons to Ukraine anymore. | ||
| Now the Europeans, the NATO allies, are purchasing those weapons from the United States and offering them to Ukraine. | ||
| But it isn't an example of Trump sidling up to Putin. | ||
| Instead, it's showing in very strong language that Trump is on the Ukrainian side at the moment and he doesn't think that Russia has good cards here. | ||
| And I think that's such a difference from where Trump was when he told Zelensky he didn't have the cards just in the winter. | ||
| So this is a really an incredible example of an evolution of President Trump's thinking on this war. | ||
| The question that we don't know though is, well, what comes next? | ||
| And you mentioned President Trump making those remarks, the no cards remarks. | ||
| That was in February, that heated office Oval Office exchange that people may remember February to now. | ||
| What's changed? | ||
| Why this potential flip in policy? | ||
|
unidentified
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A lot of things have happened since February on policy. | |
| One thing is specifically the how question for U.S. engagement in the transatlantic security space, the U.S. help to Ukraine. | ||
| Again, is this a gift? | ||
| Is this charity that the U.S. gives? | ||
| Or is this a part of an also economically advantageous package for the United States? | ||
| And that has been taken care of throughout the summer and the creation of this approach for the Europeans to be purchasing these weapons from the United States. | ||
| That's one. | ||
| And then Russia has not been able to take significantly more land in this year. | ||
| Russia also is suffering economically. | ||
| And you see very long lines across Russia in order to get gasoline. | ||
| The Ukrainians using their own drones have hit about half of the refineries that exist in Russia. | ||
| And so the availability of fuel is really significantly limited. | ||
| And this is something that Ukraine is doing on their own with things they build in order to do this. | ||
| So this is showing Ukraine coming up with a way to have a very significant impact without the support of its allies and its partners. | ||
| And then we also look at the bigger picture of Russia has been going full steam ahead on a war in which they haven't made significant territorial gains in a few years. | ||
| And in this war, they are fueling their entire economy around the war. | ||
| And yet now they need to borrow. | ||
| They're increasing taxes. | ||
| So the general tax for things is going to go up. | ||
| They're going to have to borrow more. | ||
| And they don't have the oil to sell. | ||
| And so when you look forward, how much longer can Russia go? | ||
| Could go for a while, but it's going to hurt ever more. | ||
| So is this a smart thing for Russia to be doing? | ||
| They're not going to get more of what they want, and it's going to hurt the country a lot. | ||
| And that is what Trump is alluding to here. | ||
| And that is what is different right now in September versus where we were in February. | ||
| You mentioned that Russia hasn't been able to make much headway recently. | ||
| We're now three and a half years into this war. | ||
| Talk more about the current state of the war, where the two sides currently stand, what they each have going for them and against them. | ||
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unidentified
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So when you look at the front lines, they haven't changed much. | |
| Russia has been taking a few more miles here or there all along this very long front line, but they haven't made any major breakthroughs. | ||
| They have not taken any major cities. | ||
| It's really a slow grind. | ||
| If you look historically, it's more of a World War I situation for those who are more history buffs who are watching today. | ||
| It's just a tiny bit, a tiny bit, a tiny bit more. | ||
| Ukraine pushes back. | ||
| Russia has a lot more people that it is throwing at this war effort. | ||
| So Russia is a much bigger country. | ||
| They have a lot more soldiers at its disposal, and they are putting them onto those front lines, but they're also suffering tremendous casualties. | ||
| Yes, Russia has more, but Russia is losing more. | ||
| And again, at which point does something along those lines become too much? | ||
| Our guest for the next 35 minutes or so is Christine Berzina. | ||
| She is with the German Marshall Fund, and she is joining us for a discussion on President Trump's shift on Ukraine policy. | ||
| If you have a question or comment for her, you can start calling in now the lines. | ||
| Democrats 202-748-8000. | ||
| Republicans 202-748-8001. | ||
| And Independents 202-748-8002. | ||
| Wanted to ask about the response to President Trump's statement that was made. | ||
| A senior White House official said that the post was maybe a negotiation tactic. | ||
| Could that be effective for Russia? | ||
| And how has Russia responded to those remarks? | ||
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unidentified
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Russia has been very insulted by these remarks. | |
| And the way that you look at the language that Trump used, calling Russia a paper tiger. | ||
| I mean, you saw folks from the Kremlin say, tiger, we're not a tiger, we're a bear. | ||
| Why are you calling us a tiger? | ||
| And then a paper tiger. | ||
| And so there is this notion of having been slighted by President Trump through these remarks. | ||
| And that isn't something that they are very used to, certainly not from Trump. | ||
| About a month ago, we had that big summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska. | ||
| And that was such a celebration. | ||
| It was a fetting of the Russian president. | ||
| And now they're a paper tiger. | ||
| So I think that this is a big expression of how unhappy Trump is with Putin right now. | ||
| And Russia is a little bit uncertain, I think, of what to do next. | ||
| They've been trying to actually dial up some of their muscularity by doing more air funny business in Europe, drones into Poland, violating airspace and NATO. | ||
| But that's not going to change the reality in Ukraine. | ||
| So it's a question, how much is Russia actually able to change those realities without doing something dramatic, right? | ||
| Funny business, maybe the best description of the Russian airspace and using drones that I've heard. | ||
| We have callers waiting to talk with you. | ||
| We'll start with Lee, who's calling from Indiana on the line for Democrats. | ||
| Good morning, Lee. | ||
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unidentified
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Yes, good morning to you, too. | |
| This deal about he's supposed to be on Ukraine's side now. | ||
| I mean, he wants to help Ukraine and all this. | ||
| Well, he's so vindictive. | ||
| How can I believe that he's for Ukraine when he's after all his enemies here in the United States? | ||
| When he was on TV, the Ukraine guy, him and J.D. Vince made fun of him, talked about his clothes and everything, and the man's country was being torn apart. | ||
| And all he believed in, democracy. | ||
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unidentified
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And you really want me to believe now that Trump's on Ukraine's side when he's after when Trump's after all his enemies here in the United States. | |
| Any response for Lee? | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah, thank you for the question. | |
| I think that it's a full-time job for many people to try to understand where Trump stands on a lot of these global issues. | ||
| And I think that you can't look at all elements of this administration's policy as being part of one coherent whole. | ||
| His policy towards Ukraine has really been one of zigzagging. | ||
| He has been incredibly tough on Ukraine and then even insulting to Zelensky in the Oval Office. | ||
| And now instead, he has shifted back and been very pro-Ukrainian. | ||
| You can see where things are in any particular moment, but that doesn't guarantee that in one week's time or in one month's time, it's going to be exactly the same. | ||
| Although in recent months, the Ukrainians have been very successful at making sure that their view on the situation has a good perception also in the White House. | ||
| Something you talked about was the ability for Russia to continue financing a war now three and a half years in. | ||
| Some of the funding for that coming from oil, gas, energy sales. | ||
| That's something that President Trump has talked about this week, not only with the Turkish president, but also at the UN. | ||
| Want to play a clip of his remarks there and get your response? | ||
| China and India are the primary funders of the ongoing war by continuing to purchase Russian oil. | ||
| But inexcusably, even NATO countries have not cut off much Russian energy and Russian energy products. | ||
| Which, as you know, I found out about two weeks ago and I wasn't happy. | ||
| Think of it. | ||
| They're funding the war against themselves. | ||
| Who the hell ever heard of that one? | ||
| In the event that Russia is not ready to make a deal to end the war, then the United States is fully prepared to impose a very strong round of powerful tariffs, which would stop the bloodshed, I believe, very quickly. | ||
| But for those tariffs to be effective, European nations, all of you are gathered here right now, would have to join us in adopting the exact same measures. | ||
| I mean, you're much closer to the city. | ||
| We have an ocean in between. | ||
| You're right there. | ||
| And Europe has to step it up. | ||
| They can't be doing what they're doing. | ||
| They're buying oil and gas from Russia while they're fighting Russia. | ||
| It's embarrassing to them, and it was very embarrassing to them when I found out about it. | ||
| I can tell you that. | ||
| They have to immediately cease all energy purchases from Russia. | ||
| Otherwise, we're all wasting a lot of time. | ||
| President Trump saying that those countries that are buying gas and oil, those NATO countries, are funding the war against themselves. | ||
| Is that accurate? | ||
|
unidentified
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There are countries in Europe that are still maintaining significant energy ties to Russia. | |
| The European Union, NATO is not a monolith, and there are different countries that set their own policies. | ||
| There are also rules that are EU-wide about what can and cannot be done. | ||
| But for the EU to pass the sanctions, all of the countries have to agree. | ||
| And this has been really tough. | ||
| The vast majority of countries are happy and would like to not have any more energy ties. | ||
| But then there are a few friends of Russia in the European bloc. | ||
| And if you look at Hungary and Slovakia, for example, these are countries that still have a supply of fairly affordable Russian energy resources. | ||
| And they're not going to be very inclined to give that up. | ||
| And in many ways, President Trump is right that this doesn't really make sense. | ||
| How can it be that the NATO countries are spending so much money to help Ukraine, and yet some of them are still helping Russia make this war effort possible financially? | ||
| But what is the pressure that is needed to make sure that Hungary and Slovakia are able to say, you know, we're going to step back from it right now because the Europeans by themselves haven't been able to get their neighbors to do this since the beginning of the war. | ||
| John is waiting on the line. | ||
| He's calling from Florida on the line for independence. | ||
| Good morning, John. | ||
|
unidentified
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Good morning, ladies. | |
| As far as buying oil from Russia, we know India is a big buyer as well as China. | ||
| But I'd like to push back on that. | ||
| It's just those two little European countries, Hungary and Slovakia, that are buying oil from Russia. | ||
| They might be doing out in the open, but we all know that the rest of the European countries are buying oil from India, who also buys oil from Russia and then sells it to the Europeans at a higher rate because they get it cheaper from Russia. | ||
| So we know a lot of European countries with their green energy that's not going so well are buying tons of oil from India, which is fueling the war effort for Russia. | ||
| Also, I'd like to talk about the Eastern Front. | ||
| Russia controls pretty much all of the Eastern Front at this point, and I don't see how that land is ever going to be going back into Ukrainian hands. | ||
| It seems that this war is almost at a stalemate, although Russia is advancing every day little by little. | ||
| And I don't see how Ukraine's ever going to be able to take that land back without some kind of superior air power, which they do not have. | ||
| If you can answer me on those two points, I'd appreciate it. | ||
| Thank you so much for those questions. | ||
| So you are absolutely right that it isn't simply the direct sales that are a problem. | ||
| There are many sales that are a problem. | ||
| And having the strict enforcement of any sanctions regime and trying to find and eliminate the loopholes is incredibly important. | ||
| You can even look at the way that washing machines or other machinery is going into Central Asia and then winding up re-exported to Russia because chips are very important also for Russia. | ||
| So there are various mechanisms, both that money can get into Russia and that the kind of hard tools they need are also getting into Russia. | ||
| And this is something where the Europeans should be tightening down and saying, look, if we're serious, we're going to have to make sure to cut off and turn off these faucets of resources that are going into Russia. | ||
| And there, again, this pressure is good. | ||
| There's a lot of hard feelings across Europe from a lot of Trump's rhetoric. | ||
| the same time that a lot of the things that Trump points out are actually very necessary. | ||
| And on the Eastern Flank question, how do you get it back? | ||
| So this is, I think, that the question of what is negotiation, how does Ukraine actually get back that territory? | ||
| We also have to understand how much mining there has been, as in land mines put down where these front lines are. | ||
| It would be a tremendous task for Ukraine to get this land back. | ||
| Probably some kind of massive weakness or event in Russia would have to open the doors for Ukraine to regain this territory. | ||
| I mean, there have been various cataclysmic moments in Russian history, but at the moment it does not appear that Ukraine will be able to. | ||
| But for Trump to even open the door to that and to say, we're not necessarily going to make the line we're at today permanent, that already is a massive shift in policy. | ||
| And John, to our caller, Christine had mentioned that there were a handful of European countries that are buying gas and energy from Russia. | ||
| This is from Fox News. | ||
| It says, Hungary, Slovakia, France, Belgium, and Spain remain Europe's top importers of Russian energy. | ||
| Notes that while Hungary and Slovakia continue to purchase Russian oil, France is the second largest European purchaser of Russian energy and continues to import liquefied natural gas. | ||
| And wanted to go back to what you were saying. | ||
| This is a related, this is a question coming in by a text. | ||
| It says to your guest, what targets can Ukraine go after in Russia to get Putin to see that this war may end up causing Russia more damage than good should Ukraine hit targets in Russia hazards? | ||
| That is from Dean in Kentucky. | ||
|
unidentified
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I think this is a really good question because it comes at the strategy of what Ukraine should be doing next. | |
| When we look at this question of the high energy prices in Russia for Russians, then this is a result of the significant attacks that Ukraine has made against refineries. | ||
| Ukraine is continuing in this strategy. | ||
| But Zelensky in the last week, or so it is reported, has asked President Trump for Tomahawk missiles. | ||
| These are far longer range missiles that the United States has. | ||
| Even having them in Ukrainian hands would already change the calculus for Russia. | ||
| Because at the moment, the big military facilities, the bases that Russia has that are more inland, are really well protected from any kind of Ukrainian attack. | ||
| You've had swarms of drones or other novel technologies that the Ukrainians have been able to use. | ||
| But at the same time, they also are not able to use the kind of big missiles that any of the big countries would be using. | ||
| If the U.S. were to even give those to Ukraine, the threat of being able to attack a major Russian base would mean that perhaps the calculus would be different on the Russian side. | ||
| Let's hear from Oliver, who's calling from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on the line for Republicans. | ||
| Hi, Oliver. | ||
|
unidentified
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Good morning, ladies. | |
| If the Russian military is so bogged down in Ukraine, why are they messing with Finland and Poland? | ||
| If they can't handle Ukraine, how are you going to handle more than one country? | ||
| All right, thank you. | ||
| I think this is that, so we have a question here about why Russia can't just take care of the one thing they are trying to take care of and instead why Russia is looking at other spaces. | ||
| And that is because Russia doesn't want to be considered just a regional power and wants wherever possible to remind NATO countries and remind the United States that it is a global power. | ||
| And in Alaska, Trump called Russia number two when it comes to nuclear powers. | ||
| And so it does not want to be seen as this, quote, paper tiger, as Trump called Russia. | ||
| And instead, Russia is trying to get Trump and the world to see Russia as still the number two, not far behind the United States power. | ||
| And if it can flex, meaning provide threatening situations in Europe, all across the border, but honestly anywhere globally, this allows Russia to feel itself stronger. | ||
| So when it gets really close to Alaskan airspace, when it causes trouble in Africa, when it seeks to interfere in affairs in Libya, it had a massive base enroll in Syria. | ||
| It is everywhere in the world because it wants to show everyone else that it can be everywhere in the world. | ||
| It wants to be able to stir the pot, effectively, and that's what gives it a sense of power. | ||
| Victory is calling from Madison, Wisconsin on the line for independence. | ||
| Good morning, Victory. | ||
|
unidentified
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victory are you there i am i got a new tv now oh ready Go ahead. | |
| Okay, yeah, the point is that as a substance of the United States, we the people are not by the people. | ||
| That's the Dr. Trump, Sir Trump, whatever. | ||
| He is mirroring us. | ||
| We are the problem. | ||
| That is why democracy should have never been, because it says in the Bible, foundation of the country, currently a company, that we should not have democracy. | ||
| It leads to where we are. | ||
| Now, relative to what Ukraine is doing, we're doing. | ||
| It's hypocrisy all across the world. | ||
| This is not where we should be. | ||
| That's why I'm independent, because I did too much time studying the Republic to see this going on. | ||
| Sir Trump needs to be consistent for the people, not for revenge. | ||
| I'll leave it there. | ||
| Well, I think that America's political leaders, as well as Ukraine's political leaders, are very much interested in helping their people. | ||
| In each country, there are many perspectives about what that would mean. | ||
| But that link between voters and the leaders, the sense of responsibility, the sense of protecting interests is something that is quite common. | ||
| And I think that part of what we see in the United States and in Ukraine, but we don't see in a country like Russia, is this question of, well, how important is human life? | ||
| If you look at President Zelensky and how concerned he is about his people and about the losses he has on the front lines, in many ways, this is similar to the way that Donald Trump is also incredibly concerned about the use of the American military and the value of the American service members' lives. | ||
| This is that link. | ||
| And this is a community of countries, of leaders, that understands that value of their people. | ||
| And yet on the other side, you have leaders who are interested actually in using people for military benefit in the way that we would use dollars. | ||
| And that is a big difference and a problem. | ||
| President Trump was asked about potential U.S. involvement this week while he was in New York. | ||
| Want to play the clip and then we'll talk about it on the other side. | ||
|
unidentified
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Mr. President, do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace? | |
| Yes, I do. | ||
|
unidentified
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Would you back up NATO allies? | |
| You said that you thought that they should shoot down the Russian aircraft. | ||
| Would you back them up? | ||
| Would the United States help them out in some way? | ||
| Depends on the circumstance, but we're very strong toward NATO. | ||
| What did you hear there from President Trump and what could U.S. involvement look like? | ||
| What could backing up NATO look like? | ||
|
unidentified
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So thus far, we've had the situation where Russia has been sending drones or its aircraft, its MiGs, either into NATO airspace or a little too close to NATO airspace. | |
| And we have the situation where we don't understand exactly whose drones caused the paralysis of Scandinavian airports also in this last year. | ||
| So what do you do about it? | ||
| And Trump is saying, yeah, you can shoot them down. | ||
| But here's the tricky piece. | ||
| What happens next? | ||
| And who can shoot them down? | ||
| So when we come to Baltic airspace, so the three Baltic countries, Alatvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, when they joined NATO, they did not have big air forces. | ||
| And you have a rotational presence of other NATO countries who are up in the air. | ||
| So when the MiGs entered Estonian airspace, it was the Italian plane that was scrambled and was trying to get it out of that airspace. | ||
| So which country is going to be able to do this? | ||
| What are the repercussions? | ||
| And does the U.S. have the Europeans' back when that happens? | ||
| Because what does it mean for Russia to say, we're going to be really strong, in some ways really actually threatening against NATO? | ||
| And then is the response a national response? | ||
| Is it that the Estonians need to be strong or the Italians whose plane it is need to be strong? | ||
| Or is there a big U.S. backstop there? | ||
| And we don't actually know all of those details. | ||
| There's a lot that we don't know publicly, and there are plans at NATO about exactly how things would go. | ||
| But a lot of this is testing resolve. | ||
| And for Trump to say, no, I think that you shouldn't basically be meek in response to this kind of incident shows the fact that there is political backing. | ||
| But that will have to have a role also in terms of the U.S. posture. | ||
| Where are U.S. troops? | ||
| How involved will the U.S. be? | ||
| Is it just the nuclear backstop that's at play? | ||
| And those things are not super clear right now. | ||
| And Russia has been flying drones in NATO ally airspace. | ||
| This is a headline from the Associated Press. | ||
| From yesterday, Russian warplanes detected flying near Alaska. | ||
| For ninth time this year, U.S. military says, what do we know about this and what Putin may be doing here? | ||
|
unidentified
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What is Russia? | |
| So often there's this notion that Russia is simply a problem for a legacy of Russian Imperial or USSR imperial countries in Europe or in the Caucasus or in Central Asia. | ||
| Russia, again, doesn't want to be seen as this isolated regional power. | ||
| And the fact is that Russia is a neighboring country to the United States. | ||
| It also cooperates significantly with China in the Pacific. | ||
| So for Russia to send its planes close to Alaska when Russian warships cooperate with Chinese maybe in the Pacific, this is not about being regional. | ||
| is not about how many meters Russia can get in Ukraine. | ||
| It's about being the biggest threat or biggest neighbor to the United States in the Pacific, in the Arctic. | ||
| And Russia does not want the U.S. to forget that. | ||
| John is calling from Illinois on the line for independence. | ||
| Good morning, John. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Hi there. | |
| Thanks for taking my call. | ||
| I appreciate the input from your guest. | ||
| She sounds very sincere. | ||
| Just give me about a minute to make some points. | ||
| I love calling in when people come on the show touting the Ukraine war and how we need to keep going ahead. | ||
| Trump did say a lot of interesting things the other day, but he says a lot of stuff. | ||
| Many non-mainstream analysts have said, yeah, Trump's saying, yeah, we'll sell you all the weapons you want. | ||
| You guys go for it. | ||
| Because the fact is Europe cannot defeat Russia. | ||
| As far as sanctions goes, sanctions have basically, that were started under the Biden administration, have done one main thing. | ||
| They have pushed Russia into an alliance with China, North Korea, Iran, and even India now says to the U.S., well, we're going to buy whatever we want. | ||
|
unidentified
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You can't really tell us what to do. | |
| So that really sanctions have not actually hurt Russia. | ||
| It's actually made them stronger. | ||
| Russia may not be great, but it's in better shape than Europe and probably the United States. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Just a couple more quick things because I'll do a lot of reading on this stuff and your guest can respond to whichever point she wants. | |
| Ukraine in 2014, our great Victoria Newland went over there to foment an insurrection to overthrow a neutral government so we could put in place a U.S. lackey that could move closer and closer to Russia's borders, which basically Russia has said that's a red line. | ||
| We don't want NATO on our border. | ||
| Nobody talks about this. | ||
| C-SPAN doesn't have people on like Professor John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs, John Ritter, not John Ritter, Scott Ritter. | ||
| There's so much information. | ||
| All I can tell listeners is please don't buy the mainstream media take on this. | ||
| Do some independent research online, non-mainstream sources, and you'll find out a lot of different things from what you're hearing this morning. | ||
| And I thank you for taking my call. | ||
| Thank you for your questions. | ||
| Can let's get a little bit about the Russia-China partnership, because I think that there is something to get into there. | ||
| So Russia and China set up a no-limits partnership before the full-scale invasion. | ||
| You have this, Russia preparing the ground for a different kind of role globally before this invasion. | ||
| This means that it isn't really the West that is pushing them together. | ||
| It is a kind of strategic bet that Russia is making. | ||
| Russia had all of the things that in many ways the West is offering or could offer after the war. | ||
| Russia was a member of the G8. | ||
| It had a flourishing and actually ever more diversified economy. | ||
| Its people could travel globally. | ||
| They could purchase anything anywhere. | ||
| They could study. | ||
| They could set up businesses. | ||
| And yet Putin decided he didn't want that anymore. | ||
| And instead, he is looking for partnership with a country that is seeking a very long-term, also century trajectory for its power. | ||
| It is a building block towards something that is anti-American and anti-Western and disruptive. | ||
| So I'd say don't see this partnership and the threatening behavior in the Pacific as something that is because of support for Ukraine. | ||
| In fact, it perceives that. | ||
| This is a strategy that Russia seeks to put into place. | ||
| And on the NATO border question, well, Russia has had NATO on its borders and the USSR hasn't had NATO on its borders since the creation of NATO. | ||
| Look up in the north and the Norwegian-Russian border. | ||
| Then, yet now you have more with Finland also joining the Baltic states and Poland have also been now since 2004 NATO members. | ||
| And so a red line or a tipping point, I think that's the, I don't necessarily buy that. | ||
| And why? | ||
| I mean, who is creating this desire for NATO? | ||
| When I talk to Ukrainians, this isn't something that is coming from above, but instead is a question of choice, of desire, of not wanting to be held hostage by Putin and trying to be dragged back into a previous century, but a question of how they want to track their trajectory forward. | ||
| They absolutely want to join NATO. | ||
| That's not really up to them because all the other NATO countries have to give it a thumbs up before that can happen. | ||
| But they want to say that they don't want to be living in an autocratic country, but instead want to have greater choice and innovation and they want to flourish. | ||
| It is a wonderful technological innovative country where you saw a lot of growth. | ||
| And, you know, Putin didn't like that and we got to an invasion. | ||
| David is calling from Flemington, New Jersey, Line for Independence. | ||
| Good morning, David. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Good morning, and thank you to you both. | |
| I just wanted to compliment Romania, but before that, I would like to caution listeners to a hint of what I heard in the previous caller from Illinois, whose comment was latent with the conspiracy theories that the U.S. and neocons left over in our State Department deliberately, along with George Soros, | ||
| who's sprinkled around like salt, deliberately provoked. | ||
| Russia deliberately provoked ethnic Russians, even conspiracy theories that the worship of the Russian Orthodox was deliberately limited by a concoction of U.S. and Ukrainians going to Istanbul to encourage the head of the Eastern Orthodox Church to limit the worship of the Russian Orthodox. | ||
| One has to be very careful about all this neocon, deep state, Victoria Newland stuff that we are deliberately trying to create a war with Russia based on neocon philosophy. | ||
| I do want to quickly compliment Romania, which has steered an amazing path from the likes of a Viktor Orban and the likes of our own country. | ||
| Their memories of Ceaușescu were burned into their brains, but their memories of being under the Soviet Union are burned into their brains. | ||
| And the greatest weapon of Russia has been computers more than weapons. | ||
| And they invaded the Romanian electoral process. | ||
| The Romanians stopped the process. | ||
| They avoided electing a Trump type or an Orban type. | ||
| And they've elected one of the finest leaders on the planet. | ||
| So a shout out to Romania and thank you both. | ||
| Thank you so much. | ||
| There are a lot of really long memories about what happened in the Cold War if you were on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain behind the Berlin Wall. | ||
| And in many places, this is a decisive factor for political choices today. | ||
| You also have a legacy of big business and high-level ties with Moscow. | ||
| That casts a shadow. | ||
| And in some ways, there's a push and pull between society's memory of the significant harms caused of that era and some of those lubricating ties and money and business with Russia. | ||
| So there's a push and pull really across the board. | ||
| But you don't have to look back at what happened in the 40s or what happened in the 60s with the Prague Spring to see what is at stake. | ||
| If you look at the fact that Ukrainian children are being stolen and sent into Russia, I mean, this is a reminder about what can happen. | ||
| This is a way where people today look at what's happening in Ukraine and the parts that have been taken by Russia and say, we don't want that. | ||
| But then you have to be willing to do something about it. | ||
| Murphy is calling from Grants Pass, Oregon, Line for Independence. | ||
| Good morning, Murphy. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I would like the honored guest to comment on the impact of oil sales from Russia to India. | |
| Of course, if India decides not to buy oil from Russia, it will affect Russia's ability to finance this war going forward. | ||
| So please comment on what percentage of Russian oil sales go to India. | ||
| And then if India stops buying, what's going to happen to that oil? | ||
| Is anybody else going to buy that? | ||
| Hopefully not. | ||
| And also, India also supplies refined product of oil in the form of diesel and sells it to Europe, if I understand it correctly. | ||
| So the question is, and also what will happen to the price of oil in the markets if India doesn't buy this oil? | ||
| So if it's how it is sustainable, if. | ||
| Well, I think the aim is for this not to be sustainable for Russia, for Russia to find that the ongoing war effort creates a situation in which its petroleum products are not as desired on the world stage, and therefore the ability to maintain defense spending at the level that it is is not something that was tolerable by society. | ||
| The India piece of this is important and in many ways it is the frontrunner for what Trump can do elsewhere. | ||
| There is a piece of, well, is it fair? | ||
| Trump could simply create new sanctions as many are calling on Russia rather than in some ways penalizing India in order for it to have a different kind of relationship with Russia. | ||
| That, of course, is a complicated dynamic, but then Trump says that he would want the Europeans to stop all their direct sales before Trump would make that measure. | ||
| So there are a lot of things going on, and it isn't simply a question of India, although it is important here. | ||
| India has really significantly increased its purchases from the Russian energy sector since the beginning of the war. | ||
| And I think that is what is alarming as well. | ||
| India has had significant economic and even friendly political ties in the Soviet bloc era and since with Moscow, but also good ties with the United States. | ||
| And this middle-of-the-road approach, I think, is one that is confusing. | ||
| Are you an ally? | ||
| Are you a partner? | ||
| Are you a friendly country? | ||
| Are you not? | ||
| How are you playing in the world stage? | ||
| And yet, India is trying to keep as many options open as possible, and that is creating frictions. | ||
| What happens with the oil? | ||
| A lot of it just literally floats around. | ||
| Some of it is not being then extracted. | ||
| And I think it's going to be a mixed bag. | ||
| I think you'll have oil that will have to get offloaded somewhere. | ||
| But I think the question is what happens in the broader supply chain? | ||
| What happens further up, literally, a pipeline? | ||
| And does the demand for that Russian oil become smaller over time? | ||
| We are almost out of time. | ||
| So we'll end with this question. | ||
| Steve from Tampa, Florida sent us in a text along the same lines. | ||
| Does the guest believe that the imposition of very stringent secondary sanctions on Russia, including on all of the oligarchs in Russia, will have a significant impact on Putin and his desire for expansionary efforts? | ||
|
unidentified
|
I think it's really hard to say what the influence would be of additional measures against oligarchs because right now we're getting into an ever more personalist regime. | |
| In the boom days for the Russian economy and for the Russian business world, when you think about purchasing soccer teams and other major luxury items around the world, this was driven by a big cohort of oligarchs. | ||
| But their acquiescence or their opposition isn't really important right now. | ||
| If Trump wanted Putin to be more businessy, he would have already been able to achieve that, right? | ||
| But Putin isn't businessy right now. | ||
| He's thinking about a map. | ||
| He's thinking about what in 300 years someone's going to look back in an atlas and say, you know, Russia circa 2025 looked like this. | ||
| And he wants that spot on that map to be bigger. | ||
| So more sanctions and more actions against the oligarchs. | ||
| I think maybe he thinks they have enough helicopters as it is. | ||
| Instead, it's about something different. | ||
| If it was possible to have this kind of effect, then I think Trump would have a far easier time through the question of oligarchs, through the question of business, to get Putin at the table and back into a more money-making role globally. | ||
| Christine Berzina is managing director of Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund. | ||
| You can find the organization and her work online at gmfus.org. | ||
| Christine, thank you so much for your time this morning. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you. | |
| C-SPAN's Washington Journal, our live forum inviting you to discuss the latest issues in government, politics, and public policy from Washington, D.C. to across the country. | ||
| And coming up Sunday morning, we'll talk with Clifford Young of Ipsos about his organization's latest polling on public opinion of President Trump's second term. |