| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
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unidentified
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Without you, though, in the future, can I do it without you have to ask Mark? | |
| Okay, so we're heading back. | ||
| We're heading back. | ||
| I want to thank these two gentlemen behind me. | ||
| They're incredible people, both of them. | ||
| They're really, they've done a fantastic job. | ||
|
unidentified
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And Susie's in the front, and she's done great. | |
| And Monica, thank you very much. | ||
| That was quite an exciting time. | ||
| And we're going to be heading back. | ||
|
unidentified
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We'll be back soon. | |
| We'll see you in Washington, D.C. Remember this. | ||
| We have the hottest country anywhere in the world. | ||
|
unidentified
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Thank you very much, everybody. | |
| In a nation divided, a rare moment of unity. | ||
| This fall, C-SPAN presents Ceasefire, where the shouting stops and the conversation begins in a town where partisan fighting prevails. | ||
| One table, two leaders, one goal, to find common ground. | ||
| This fall, Ceasefire, on the network that doesn't take sides, only on C-SPAN. | ||
| Alex Patanka of the Middle East Institute. | ||
| He serves as a senior fellow here to talk about all things that are going on between the U.S.-Israel and Iran. | ||
| Mr. Vitanka, good morning. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Good morning to you. | |
| Your specialty is in regional security. | ||
| So let's start with what happens now regionally and what are the things that the United States has to watch out for when it comes to Iran. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Right. | |
| Obviously, the obvious thing to watch out for and try and shape is Iran's next move. | ||
| Obviously, the Iranians didn't think anything like this could be happening to them just a few weeks ago. | ||
| They were getting ready for more diplomatic talks. | ||
| From the Trump administration's point of view, those talks weren't going anywhere. | ||
| They were moving too slow. | ||
| And the Trump administration made the strategic bet, basically, that it was better off taking Iran's nuclear sites out as opposed to continuing the diplomatic track. | ||
| The region, Pedro, if I could say this, is a very anxious place. | ||
| Obviously, Iran's retaliation involved another country, the country of Qatar. | ||
| There are 40 to 45,000 American troops and about 19 bases from Turkey all the way down, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman. | ||
| So plenty of targets. | ||
| What the Iranians clearly decided to do was to, to the extent they could retaliate against the U.S. attack over the weekend on their nuclear sites and then look for a de-escalation. | ||
| That's exactly what they got. | ||
| So what we're hearing from sources in the region is that a number of U.S. Arab allies like Oman and Qatar played a role here trying to get Trump administration and the Iranians to agree to a ceasefire. | ||
| And then President Trump picked up the phone and told Bibi Netanyahu of Israel that was a course of action going forward. | ||
| So that's where we are right now. | ||
| As of right now, I don't see a clear roadmap for what comes next. | ||
| The ceasefire could last. | ||
| It could break down. | ||
| But yeah, let me stop there, Pedro. | ||
| You talked about the ceasefire breaking down and add to that what we heard from the president yesterday and others concerning this report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, the possibility that a pushback of Iran's nuclear program maybe just a couple of months if initial reports are believed. | ||
| How does that factor into shaping things, as you say, not only from Iran, but from the United States side? | ||
|
unidentified
|
So Pedro, I started covering the Iranian nuclear program pretty much when I started off after college. | |
| So it's been with us for about 25 years. | ||
| So, you know, the idea that one military mission is going to end Iran's nuclear program, again, is a strategic bet that the Trump administration made. | ||
| I don't even think President Trump thinks that was the end of it. | ||
| But I think he's hoping is that that shook the Iranians to their core and will change their cost-benefit analysis. | ||
| And they will agree to do the sort of things the president has been asking for. | ||
| Look, you can have your nuclear program, but if you get close to a weaponization capacity, then we have a problem. | ||
| That's the president's position. | ||
| Will the Iranians, at this point, having been essentially lost some of their nuclear capabilities, would they come back to the table and negotiate? | ||
| There are some signs that they might be willing to. | ||
| But if they decide the opposite is the best way forward, that's where the president's strategic bet would have failed, which is they have the capacity. | ||
| They can weaponize. | ||
| They can probably hide it. | ||
| Yes, the Iranian skies right now are open to the Israeli Air Force, which is probably how the ceasefire will break. | ||
| So if there is an intelligence on the part of the Israelis, the Americans, that the Iranians very quickly are going to try not weaponize because they feel that's their best way to survive this or protect themselves going forward, then you can see this probably the U.S.-Israeli Air Force taking out more action. | ||
| But we're not there yet because that depends on what Iran's next move will be. | ||
| Will they, as I said, dash for that bomb? | ||
| Or would they say, you know what, what we just went through the last 12 days of war has now taught us diplomacy not to need to sort of take the front seat here. | ||
| I don't know which decision the Iranian leaders will take. | ||
| That's for their call, but that's the most important one looking out for. | ||
| You've written a book called The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran, the United States Foreign Policy and Political Rivalry. | ||
| As far as the Ayatollahs are concerned, or the Ayatollah is concerned, how much is he involved in shaping next steps? | ||
|
unidentified
|
I would argue, frankly, that this disaster that just happened to Iran is his fault, his worldview. | |
| I mean, he's been the supreme leader since 1989. | ||
| For 36 years, he's had opportunities to change course. | ||
| And, you know, instead, he has sort of gambled on essentially what he wants to be a leader of the Islamic world and sort of pursue this policy of opposing the United States in the Middle East and opposing Israel's right to exist. | ||
| A huge gamble on his part. | ||
| Again, about four decades of investing in this. | ||
| It's an ideological mission that he's been on. | ||
| Again, I think everybody would agree that Iran and Israel do not need to be at war with each other. | ||
| These are two countries that don't really have any conflict of any kind. | ||
| There's no land conflict. | ||
| There's no historical conflict. | ||
| Geographically, they're over a thousand miles apart. | ||
| So the conflict essentially, in many ways, is Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader's call in terms of what he wanted to do. | ||
| Going forward, it becomes really interesting to see if the regime in its totality decides, you know what, it's time to sideline Ali Khamenei and his worldview because he brought this disaster on Iran. | ||
| And going forward, we shouldn't listen to him. | ||
| That could be one course of action. | ||
| The other course of action is his worldview gets more supporters, that the only way forward is to resist the United States and so forth, which is a very dark place. | ||
| I hope they don't go there, but it could be a scenario to watch out for. | ||
| This is Alex Vetanka joining us. | ||
| And if you want to ask him questions about the current events between the United States, Israel, and Iran, 202-748-8001 for Republicans, 202748-8000 for Democrats. | ||
| Independents, 202748-8002. | ||
| You can text us at 202-748-8003. | ||
| Mr. Vitanka, a little bit about the Middle East Institute and the point of view it takes in these kind of situations. | ||
| Also, how is the Institute financially supported? | ||
|
unidentified
|
So we don't take a point of view. | |
| I mean, our role historically, we've been around since 1946. | ||
| We're the oldest think tank in the United States with a focus on educating the American people about the Middle East and why it's important to know what's going on in that part of the world with some, you know, huge countries from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and so on. | ||
| So that's what we do. | ||
| In terms of funding, we get support from the U.S. government. | ||
| Sometimes we get funding from foreign governments. | ||
| Lots of different foundations and individuals support our work. | ||
| Again, we've been around for a long time since 1946, started by American diplomats who came back from the Second World War and basically kind of realized that the U.S. needs to know more about the Middle East because it's going to be a critical part of the world going forward. | ||
| They made that decision that long time ago, years ago, and we're still here some 80 years later. | ||
| And the Middle East still matters as much today as it did back then. | ||
| As far as the funding from the government, is that from the government's diplomatic side at the State Department? | ||
| Is it from the Defense Department? | ||
| Or generally, where does it come from? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, all that is available on our website. | |
| I'll urge people to go on mei.edu. | ||
| You can see the entire annual reports. | ||
| Every single donation will be documented for. | ||
| But we get from, like you said, State Department, other agencies. | ||
| We have close cooperation with CENTCOM Central Command. | ||
| We get foreign governments in the Gulf states, elsewhere, the Europeans, Asian countries that have an interest in, you know, trying to bring people together. | ||
| They've all supported us over the years. | ||
| But again, every single year of donations can be seen on our website. | ||
| Let's start with Moses in Ohio. | ||
| Democrats line your own with Alex Vitanka of the Middle East Institute. | ||
| Moses, good morning. | ||
| Go ahead. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Good morning, Pedro, and thanks for taking my call. | |
| Mr. Vat, sir, the caller here, to get your guest, Pedro, I want him to explain to some of these callers who have called in supporting our president and his decision. | ||
| I want them to be reminded that under the Obama administration, there was a deal with the Iranians. | ||
| I repeat, it wasn't perfect, but it was a deal. | ||
| What did our president do? | ||
| He came in, he tore it up. | ||
| He did the same thing with a bipartisan immigration bill. | ||
| Now, the last thing I want to point out is this, Pedro. | ||
| Has anybody in the world ever seen a human being jump over their shadow? | ||
| No. | ||
| Our president is who he is, and we have to live with it. | ||
| But I just want those callers who are enamored with his spinning and taking credit for something before it even ends. | ||
| Okay, that's Moses there in Ohio, Mr. Vitanka. | ||
| He referenced that JCPOA. | ||
| Maybe start there. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, I know. | |
| Look, JCPOA, as the caller, as Moses just pointed out, was working out. | ||
| It was not a perfect, it wasn't a perfect agreement because it was centered on the nuclear issue, how many centrifuges Iran can have, how much they can enrich uranium to, and so forth. | ||
| But at the heart of this conflict, going back to 1979, it's a political conflict. | ||
| Without political trust, all these agreements that deal with specific issues like ballistic missiles or Iran's nuclear program, they're all going to be on thin ice, if you will. | ||
| So President Trump comes in in 2018 and decides to walk away from the 2015 deal. | ||
| He campaigned on it. | ||
| Frankly, the president, again, made another strategic bet back then, that by walking away from the deal that Obama had signed, that the Iranians would rush to him and cut a better deal with him, if you will. | ||
| They never did. | ||
| They sort of essentially stayed the course. | ||
| They took on the sanctions that the U.S. imposed on them. | ||
| They've suffered plenty. | ||
| They've suffered hundreds of billions of dollars and so on. | ||
| But I guess from their point of view, they're talking about national pride and the United States can't force them into that direction. | ||
| But I also want to say this. | ||
| Again, if you had the right political calculations on the part of the Iranians, you know, for example, direct diplomacy with the Trump administration, which I think is right now needed more now than ever before, it's the sort of thing you need to create the roadmap, that political conversation. | ||
| The Obama administration had a deal with them, true, Moses, but you know, at the same time, Iran's policies in the region didn't change. | ||
| So, from a political point of view, if you're sitting in Israel or some of the other U.S. allies, the fact that Iran didn't politically, or ideologically, I should say, change course, that was always a concern. | ||
| And because there was some sunset, you know, the nuclear agreement was coming to an end eventually. | ||
| In fact, it will come to an end October of this year. | ||
| So, people will say, we're in borrowed time. | ||
| Let's have a fix for this problem that is permanent. | ||
| And we've just never made it. | ||
| Maybe President Trump will find something more permanent. | ||
| But as I said, he's taking a strategic bet here. | ||
| We don't know where Iran's going to go. | ||
| His first bet in 2018 didn't work out. | ||
| Maybe hopefully this one will work out. | ||
| From Maryland, this is Bill, Independent Line. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, good morning. | |
| My question is: why is it taking Iran so long to develop? | ||
| I've been paying attention to this for probably 25 years. | ||
| And I can remember 25 years ago pundits saying, oh, they're on the verge. | ||
| It's six months, it's four months. | ||
| And here we are 25 years later. | ||
| And then you look at North Korea. | ||
| It didn't take North Korea that long to develop. | ||
| And then so that was the first question. | ||
| The second question is: I read a report that right after the bombing, that Russia was talking about supplying Iran with the nuclear weapons. | ||
| And I had always thought, well, why don't they just buy it from another country? | ||
| And of course, I think that Russia, China, nobody wants to see them with nuclear weapons because they all recognize that they are an existential threat to the entire world. | ||
| So those were my two questions. | ||
| Bill, there in Maryland, thank you. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, no, I mean, on the first part, why didn't Iran weaponize earlier if it wanted to? | |
| It's had plenty of time. |