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We are still at our core, a democracy. | |
| This is also a massive victory for democracy and for freedom. | ||
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C-SPAN viewers know Larry Sabato. | |
| He's, of course, the founder of Sabado's Crystal Ball, the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. | ||
| And Mr. Savado, 18 months or so before the midterm elections, what would you say is the most important poll number or metric that the savvy political viewer should pay attention to to get a sense of what direction the midterms may be going? | ||
| John, the most important word or number you used was 18, 18 months away. | ||
| And so my answer is don't pay much attention to anything. | ||
| There are so many opportunities for change for one side or the other or both sides. | ||
| It's pointless. | ||
| All you can do is look at history and you say, well, historically, the incumbent White House Party has lost X number of seats. | ||
| And the average is around 26 or so. | ||
| But we're in a new era of very intense partisanship. | ||
| And while it's certainly possible it will be at 26 or higher, it's more likely, I think, than not that it will be under that, whichever party wins. | ||
| We're having a lot of close elections. | ||
| The Senate is much more likely to be variable because you only have a third of the states electing a senator. | ||
| Sometimes it's a little more than that if you have vacant seats, or interim appointees. | ||
| So that's really all you can say. | ||
| We can talk about individual races, but that can change tomorrow, too. | ||
| So how does one run a crystal ball in this environment of a new era that we're in? | ||
| How do you try to know what's the important story to pay attention to and what's just noise? | ||
| Well, we're covered by our motto. | ||
| He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass. | ||
| And anybody who claims to have a crystal ball has either eaten a lot of ground glass or is lying. | ||
| It's one or the other. | ||
| So what we do is we try to assess what we know about the present. | ||
| We look at some of the trends that are developing while always noting that they can change and there's plenty of time for that. | ||
| And there's plenty of time, even if there is a certain standard by Labor Day of the actual election year. | ||
| We're, again, 18 months away. | ||
| So we look at everything. | ||
| The economy usually matters more than anything else. | ||
| That's why the Democrats, more than anything else, did not win. | ||
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Immigration would be a close second. | |
| And we'll look at where the economy is then, too. | ||
| By then, we'll know how the tariff thing shook out, I guess. | ||
| It keeps changing, but you never know. | ||
| Tomorrow could bring resolution. | ||
| And, of course, foreign policy, God forbid, we're involved in a foreign war. | ||
| It happens a lot if you look at American history, but so far, so good. | ||
| And scandal used to matter. | ||
| That used to be the third item on the agenda. | ||
| And I think it's pretty obvious that scandal makes very little difference anymore. | ||
| We mentioned poll numbers and metrics at the top of the conversation. | ||
| This is one that came out, I think it was just last week from the Associated Press. | ||
| Here's the headline: Democrats are deeply pessimistic about the future of their party according to a new AP poll. | ||
| How surprising is that in right now, post-midterm election? | ||
| Is that more the norm of a party that just lost the White House, lost the Senate? | ||
| Republicans maintain control of the House. | ||
| Should we be surprised about that finding? | ||
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unidentified
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Well, no, because they control nothing. | |
| Of course, they're depressed. | ||
| And there's really no opportunity to get control until 18 months from now. | ||
| I suppose you can say Democrats have influence on some votes, though not the current discussion about the big beautiful bill, because that's reconciliation takes only a simple majority and the vice presidential vote counts. | ||
| But they control nothing, as you said. | ||
| They don't control the White House. | ||
| They don't control all the appointees of the White House that run loads and loads of things beyond what we see in the headlines each day. | ||
| They don't control the House of Representatives. | ||
| They don't control the U.S. Senate. | ||
| And they certainly don't control the Supreme Court. | ||
| So, yeah, there's plenty of reason for them to be depressed. | ||
| Although, I would just remind you that MASH was completely wrong with that opening song that said, suicide is painless. | ||
| It is not painless. | ||
| It is very painful. | ||
| So you have to continue living and fight, fight, fight. | ||
| Larry Sabado is our guest joining us until about 9:30 Eastern time this morning. | ||
| And he is always happy to take your questions, your comments. | ||
| Phone lines, as usual, Democrats 202-748-8000. | ||
| Republicans 202-748-8001. | ||
| Independents 202-748-8002. | ||
| And as the phone lines light up, Professor Sabado, there are gubernatorial races taking place this year in your home state of Virginia and New Jersey as well. | ||
| How much should folks outside the Garden State and the Commonwealth be paying attention to those races? | ||
| Outside, you know, somewhat. | ||
| They're the first major indicators of how voters are reacting to the incumbent presidential administration, but also their incumbent governors. | ||
| New Jersey has a Democratic governor, Phil Murphy. | ||
| Virginia has a Republican governor, Glenn Young. | ||
| So president, probably first. | ||
| Virginia and New Jersey usually elect the nominee of the party, not in the White House. | ||
| But it is an absolute. | ||
| It's not an iron rule. | ||
| There's been one exception in Virginia from 1977 to the present. | ||
| Now, that's not many. | ||
| One out of all those elections. | ||
| And we change governors every four years. | ||
| You can't run again until another term intercedes. | ||
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And in New Jersey, it's mainly true. | |
| It's not as absolute as it's been in Virginia, near absolute. | ||
| But it still is a major indicator. | ||
| So sure, you pay attention to it. | ||
| But again, I'm going to say, and it will be a whole year until a third of the Senate and all of the House and loads of governorships across the country and state legislatures are elected. | ||
| How much can happen in a day anymore? | ||
| I mean, really, I have great sympathy for people who actually have legitimate jobs. | ||
| I don't. | ||
| You know, I have fun and I follow politics. | ||
| And that's what I do for a living. | ||
| And I can't even keep up with everything that's going on. | ||
| And so it's tough for the average person to do. | ||
| They focus on voting when voting comes near. | ||
| And a lot of the early voting starts in late September, early October. | ||
| So we have a longer election period than we used to, but it's still ages away, even by November when Virginia and New Jersey elect new governors. | ||
| By that point, is this big, beautiful bill, if it does end up passing, is it ancient history? | ||
| Are the debates that are taking place on the floor right now? | ||
| Do you think any of them resonate in November of next year? | ||
| Well, they resonate in the sense that you'll see certain excerpts and political ads on both sides. | ||
| Whatever excerpts make the other party look horrible will be defining the big, beautiful bill. | ||
| As I always say, beautiful, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. | ||
| So it depends on which party you are and what positions you have. | ||
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I don't think it's a bill. | |
| You know, this was a mistake that the Biden administration made and other presidential administrations have made. | ||
| They assume that people are following all this and know what's in these giant bills and care about it. | ||
| Now, maybe they'd care if they knew what was in it. | ||
| But you can't just pass a bill and plop it down and say, see there? | ||
| See there what we did? | ||
| You have to sell it daily, hourly, and it's a lot of trouble. | ||
| But that's how you win elections and campaigns. | ||
| And Democrats really aren't very good at that. | ||
| Though I have to say, the one Democrat who was was Bill Clinton. | ||
| He used to sell what he could get passed, even if it was a minor bill or a minor program. | ||
| He would sell it as though it were the New Deal. | ||
| And that was smart politically. | ||
| And somehow Democrats have either forgotten to do it or they don't prioritize it. | ||
| And maybe that's one reason why their followers, their party identifiers, are so depressed. | ||
| Who is Democrats' best salesman right now? | ||
| Well, I'd have to think about that. | ||
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The best salesman. | |
| Well, it isn't any of the former presidents, with all due respect to them. | ||
| But their history all the way to ancient history. | ||
| I won't say who's what. | ||
| But, you know, it's just, it's pointless to have them do it. | ||
| Look at the legislative leaders. | ||
| I'm sure they do a fine job in their caucus, you know, Schumer in the Senate and Jeffries in the House, but they don't, they're not even recognized by a large majority of Americans. | ||
| They may recognize the name a little bit. | ||
| They can't match up the name with the person. | ||
| You know, I always remind people that an old poll showed, it's not that old, that about a third of Americans can't find Great Britain on a blank map of the world. | ||
| I mean, my God, it's an island. | ||
| You know, it's pretty easy to find, but they can't find it because they don't pay attention. | ||
| They don't care about it. | ||
| They should care about it. | ||
| And that's just the way it is. | ||
| I don't think you're ever going to change people as much as we try to emphasize civic education, which is what we do at the UBA Center for Politics. | ||
| As you know, John, as a graduate, a proud alumnus of the University of Virginia. | ||
| Yes, sir. | ||
| Plenty of calls for you down there at the Center for Politics joining us this morning on the Washington Journal. | ||
| Roger is up for Springfield, Illinois. | ||
| Democrat. | ||
| Good morning. | ||
| You're on with Larry Sabado. | ||
| Good morning. | ||
| I just want to make a comparison between the Trump asking for the list of international students and taking the $2 billion from Harvard because they won't give him the list of international. | ||
| But when we asked for the cryptocurrency dinner list, he's refusing to give that list. | ||
| So on two other occasions, we asked for a list of dinners or private dinners that he had, but he has refused. | ||
| Secondly, what's the end game of this Trump regime? | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| A couple questions there for you, Professor Savado. | ||
| That's a great question. | ||
| There were lots of parts to it. | ||
| I wish I knew the answer. | ||
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The end game, they'll have to talk about everybody has their suspicions of one sort or another, whether you're pro-Trump or anti-Trump. | |
| You've got an opinion about it. | ||
| But what we know is what they're doing. | ||
| Now, let's focus on disclosure, because I think that was the major part of your question. | ||
| Absolutely. | ||
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That whole list of crypto millionaires, billionaires should be released. | |
| This is so unprecedented to do things like this. | ||
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You know, it's not just the 200 million to 400 million. | |
| I've seen different figures for the pleasure of the jumbo jet being given to Trump, the U.S. government, I guess, and then the Trump Library for his personal use after he leaves office. | ||
| All of this should be disclosed, and it's totally unprecedented. | ||
| Someone calculated an estimate for all the gifts given to prior presidents before Trump. | ||
| They didn't come close to equaling the price of this one jumbo jet. | ||
| And it's crypto billionaire stuff. | ||
| Look, his family is enriching itself. | ||
| Trump is enriching himself. | ||
| He did some of it in the first term, but he's breaking all records in this term. | ||
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And as far, and I don't approve of that, I hope you don't approve it. | |
| I hope nobody approves of it because it's got conflict of interest written all over it. | ||
| And I would recommend to you a wonderful article written by Evan Osnos in this week's The New Yorker. | ||
| And you're really, you're going to, you're going to be bug-eyed as you read it when you see what's really happening in this country. | ||
| And a tiny group of incredibly wealthy people are controlling a great deal, not just of the wealth, but of the decisions made, even more so than usual. | ||
| They've always been influential, but not to this degree. | ||
| Now, as far as Harvard's concerned, hey, I'm a guy who've spent my entire career. | ||
| I'm in my 70s, started in my 20s in higher education. | ||
| So guess what? | ||
| I support Harvard. | ||
| I know that's a shock, but Harvard individually has contributed so much to the country. | ||
| And forget about the politics for a moment. | ||
| I don't approve of any of the anti-Semitism that is there. | ||
| I don't know all the details of it. | ||
| But I sure recognize the tremendous advances that have been made in science and medicine because of the research done at Harvard and at other universities. | ||
| This is not something to be played with. | ||
| It's not a play toy for any politician or administration. | ||
| So, yeah, I feel strongly about that, but I've got an internal bias having spent my life in higher education. | ||
| You mentioned Evan Osnos. | ||
| He's got a new book. | ||
| I think it comes out next week with a great title, The Haves and the Haves Yachts, Dispatches on the Ultra Rich. | ||
| That's, I believe, June 3rd is the publishing date for that book. | ||
| We'll be covering it on C-SPAN's book TV. | ||
| Larry Sabado with us this morning. | ||
| David is in your home state of Virginia, Virginia Beach. | ||
| Republican, good morning. | ||
| Good morning, Dr. Sabado. | ||
| Wanted to just point out, you went to high school with my sister at Norfolk Catholic in the early 70s. | ||
| She's retired, traveling all over the world. | ||
| And I'm wondering, number one, when you're going to retire. | ||
| And then two more questions. | ||
| How do you explain? | ||
| Is it safe to say the bias in the media and them getting it wrong the last several cycles is because of their bias? | ||
| And then also, who do you think is going to win the governor's mansion and the House of Delegates in the Virginia House and Senate? | ||
| I'll take your answer off the air. | ||
| And I'll say, Professor Sabado, I hope you don't retire anytime soon. | ||
| But go ahead. | ||
| You're very kind to say that there are loads of people rooting for my retirement. | ||
| So we'll just, we'll see. | ||
| Going to stay as long as I enjoy it and i've enjoyed it always, and i'll stay as long as my health permits it. | ||
| And i'm envious of this gentleman's sister and we. | ||
| I did go to go to UH Catholic and he should write me and tell me who his sister is. | ||
| I don't recognize the voice because it's not his sister's. | ||
| Uh, I had 13 years of Catholic education and and it was a tough 13 years, like corporal punishment was in in the 50s and and 60s but I learned a lot. | ||
| They probably because I was afraid, like everybody else in that school, but it worked and I got a wonderful grounding in Catholic education and I salute them and I will always be grateful to them. | ||
| Uh now, as far, there were a lot of questions in there. | ||
| I believe it was media bias. | ||
| And then who's going to win? | ||
| Uh, the governor and the House OF Delegates in Virginia? | ||
| Yeah, all right, media bias answer, yes uh, let me go to UH Virginia governor. | ||
| I don't mean to take it lightly, but there are so many biases in so many places in different directions, and this is a very different environment. | ||
| Uh since uh, i'm guessing this gentleman's age he's, he's not that far away from me and, as a result. | ||
| He remembers when we had three, really two, national networks, PBS hadn't even been created and ABC wasn't really together. | ||
| So you had CBS and NBC with a half an hour of news as of 1962. | ||
| For CBS 1962, before that, it was 15 minutes of news on television and you had the same anchors and the same tiny number of reporters, all white male. | ||
| Not that there's anything wrong with that. | ||
| I think we've accomplished a lot, uh. | ||
| But you know, same perspectives uh, and pretty much in the same order. | ||
| The stories were in the same order and that's what we had, plus our newspapers. | ||
| We all read a morning newspaper, we all read an afternoon newspaper uh, and those, those newspapers are mainly gone, i'm sorry to say, or they're online, and that's a whole different environment. | ||
| And now you have social media full of misinformation and disinformation, some intentional, some unintentional. | ||
| But you also have media organizations from every conceivable point of view. | ||
| So there, there may be there are a lot of problems with today's media, but I go back so far and i'll bet you do too uh, that you can see we're in a much better place, except for the disinformation, than we were many decades ago. | ||
| So let's look on the bright side, always look on the bright side of life and no, I won't sing. | ||
| And who's going to win in Virginia? | ||
| Oh, you see, I already forgot the second question. | ||
| That's why i'm here. | ||
| What they use against me to encourage retirement uh, Virginia. | ||
| Look right now. | ||
| I would go with the historical average, in the sense that the Democrats uh, are more likely to win than the Republicans, because Trump is in the White House, Republicans are in control of everything and there are controversies that build up and Virginia has become a Light blue state. | ||
| It's not a dark blue state. | ||
| It's a light blue state, and there are purple edges to it. | ||
| And it can still go the other way. | ||
| Lots of things can happen. | ||
| But you start from that premise. | ||
| I wouldn't say necessarily the same thing in New Jersey, by the way. | ||
| New Jersey can end up being very competitive as it was four years ago when the Republican nearly won, nearly ousted the incumbent Democratic governor, who's retiring because it's the end of his two terms, and it looks likely to be the same Republican nominee. | ||
| So that would be unusual. | ||
| I'm not predicting it's too early, but it would be interesting if the Republicans took over New Jersey and the Democrats took over Virginia. | ||
| But that's just one of the possible outcomes. | ||
| And the House of Delegates will probably go the way of the gubernatorial election. | ||
| And the other two statewide positions, lieutenant governor and attorney general, often are just coattail elections, depending on who's winning the governorship. | ||
| I don't want to oversimplify, but that's the way it's been recently, at least in Virginia. | ||
| From Virginia and New Jersey to the Empire State, here's a headline on the front page of the New York Times: Son of Harlem, who ascended to 23-term pillar of the House. | ||
| It's the obituary for Charlie Wrangel, 1930 to 2025. | ||
| What should viewers know about Charlie Wrangell? | ||
| Well, he was a Korean war veteran and someone who was meddled appropriately. | ||
| He was a very brave serviceman. | ||
| I'm thinking of it because, of course, Memorial Day yesterday, and we should think of it at all times. | ||
| But I start there, and he was a very constructive congressman for a long time. | ||
| He was one of the founders of the Congressional Black Caucus in 1971, I believe it was. | ||
| He was in for 46 years. | ||
| That's either good or bad. | ||
| I like to say Charlie Wrangell and a lot of others are pretty much the polar opposite of term limits. | ||
| And unfortunately for Wrangell, because I think he had a distinguished career, he had a lot of ethics questions in the final years of his service. | ||
| And I mean a lot. | ||
| There were so many pieces to it, I can't even remember all of them. | ||
| Now, he survived it. | ||
| He didn't survive as chairman of Ways and Means, partly because the Democrats lost control in 2010 of the House of Representatives. | ||
| But he managed to get reelected and he retired on his own accord in 2016. | ||
| So it was a long, distinguished career, and parts of it were undistinguished. | ||
| And you know what? | ||
| That probably applies to all of us, whatever we do. |