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| Welcome back to the program. | ||
| We're joined now by Mohsin Milani. | ||
| He is Executive Director at the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of South Florida. | ||
| He's also the author of the book called Iran's Rise and Rivalry with the U.S. in the Middle East. | ||
| Welcome to the program. | ||
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unidentified
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Thank you very much, and it is an honor to be on your program. | |
| Well, Mr. Milani, U.S. and Iran entered a new round of nuclear negotiations in Oman over the weekend. | ||
| As far as you know, where do things stand right now? | ||
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As of today, I think the two countries are moving in the right direction. | |
| Both countries are expressing enthusiasm and hope that they can eventually reach an agreement. | ||
| But there are serious hurdles ahead of these negotiations. | ||
| But the most important thing is that the two countries have decided to talk, although they're talking at this time indirectly. | ||
| But I hope soon they begin talking directly to each other and de-escalate the situation in the Middle East and hopefully reach an agreement that is win-win for both countries. | ||
| And when you talk about talking indirectly and directly, typically the negotiations have always been indirectly. | ||
| Has the U.S. and Iran ever actually negotiated directly with each other? | ||
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Many times, many times. | |
| In fact, they did. | ||
| During the Tehran hostage crisis, they went to Algeria and the two countries signed an agreement. | ||
| And it was based on that agreement that the American hostages held in captivity for 444 days in Tehran were released. | ||
| Also, during the civil war in Iraq, Iranian officials in Iraq dealt directly, negotiated directly with the American ambassador, Ambassador Crocker. | ||
| And now during the JCPOA or the nuclear deal, Iran dealt directly with the United States. | ||
| Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif met many times with Secretary of State Kerry. | ||
| But therefore, there is a history, a well-established history of direct negotiations. | ||
| And I hope Tehran changes its strategy and begins directly talking to the Trump administration. | ||
| What is each side looking for, though, between the two negotiating sides? | ||
| Can you break down their positions for us? | ||
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unidentified
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Yes. | |
| On the Iranian side, they're basically looking for three things. | ||
| First and foremost, they want sanctions relief. | ||
| These sanctions have been crippling. | ||
| They have created major economic problems for Iran and for the Iranian merchants and businessmen in terms of banking, in terms of connection to the global market. | ||
| So they want to have these economic sanctions lifted. | ||
| Second thing they want, they want the United States to recognize Iranian right to enrich uranium indigenously. | ||
| And thirdly, they are looking for some kind of guarantee that once a deal is made with the United States, the U.S. cannot reneck on its pledge and get out of a deal, as it did in 2018 when President Trump unilaterally got out of the nuclear deal. | ||
| On the part of the U.S., obviously, the first and the most important objective is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. | ||
| And nuclear Iran is going to change, fundamentally going to change the strategic balance of power in the Middle East and the United States, Israel and the Europeans, and most likely even the Russians do not want to see a nuclear Iran. | ||
| Secondly, what the United States wants, and here there seems to be a division within the Trump administration. | ||
| There are those who are pushing for a Libyan model. | ||
| And by Libyan model, I am talking about depriving Iran of having any, any nuclear program, including enrichment activities. | ||
| It is very important, however, to point out that when the West was able to eliminate Libyan nuclear and chemical programs, Libya was far away from having a program. | ||
| It was more of a plan. | ||
| Iranian nuclear program is much more advanced. | ||
| Its infrastructure is much more sophisticated than Libya. | ||
| So there is one side of the Trump administration pushing for the Libyan model, but the other side is more or less pushing for some kind of a longer and a better deal that we had with Iran in 2015, perhaps based on strict verification and also enrichment activities indigenously, but below 5%. | ||
| Let's talk about, we'll break down a couple of those things that you talked about. | ||
| One was about how close or how far Iran is from nuclear capability. | ||
| How close are they to getting a weapon and to being able to deliver that weapon? | ||
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unidentified
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Excellent question. | |
| Two points. | ||
| Number one, Iran has repeatedly said, and the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly said that it is against Islamic principle for Iran to develop, use, and build the bomb. | ||
| Having said that, though, there are credible reports that Iran is somewhere between six months, perhaps even less than a year to building the bomb should they, should the top leadership decide to build a bomb. | ||
| We do know that Iran has enough enriched uranium to build a bomb. | ||
| But having enough uranium does not mean you can build a bomb. | ||
| You have to be able to weaponize the uranium and then you must be able to deliver it. | ||
| Frankly, we don't know enough. | ||
| What we do know that from 2003 until today, the 16 or 17 major American intelligence agencies have repeatedly said that Iran has not made the decision to weaponize. | ||
| What I can say, based on my information, based on the information I've got from open sources, Iran has the infrastructure, has the expertise to build a bomb should it decide to build one. | ||
| It could, as I said, it could take the breakup town. | ||
| The breakout time could range anywhere from, some people say a few weeks, but I believe it's probably somewhere between, and I'm making an educated guess, somewhere between six months to a year. | ||
| And if you'd like to join our conversation with Moffsen Milani of the University of South Florida, we're talking about U.S.-Iran relationships and the negotiations currently going on between those countries about their nuclear program. | ||
| You can give us a call. | ||
| The lines are by party. | ||
| So it's 202748-8001 if you're a Republican. | ||
| It's 202-748-8000 for Democrats and 202-748-8002 for independents. | ||
| One of the things that you mentioned, Mr. Malani, |