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sparklight supports c-span as a public service along with these other television providers giving you a front row seat to democracy this is washington journal for friday november 29th The holiday season is officially underway, and it's expected to be a big weekend for both retailers and shoppers looking for deals.
But how much individuals spend will largely depend on how they feel about the economy and their own financial situation.
To start today's program, we're asking you, will the economy change your holiday spending?
Here are the lines.
You say yes, 202-748-8000.
You say no, 202-748-8001.
And if you're unsure, it's 202-748-8002.
You can also text your comments to 202-748-8003.
Be sure to include your name and city.
You can also post a question or comment on Facebook at facebook.com slash C-SPAN or on X at C-SPANWJ.
Good morning, and thank you for being with us today.
Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday.
And with the end of the Thanksgiving Day holiday comes the official start of the holiday season.
This headline from The Hill, holiday sales are poised to set a new record in 2024 and could increase by as much as 3.5% from 2003.
The National Retail Federation announced Tuesday, this article is from last month.
The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday retail sales will total approximately $980 billion and between $900 billion between November 1st and December 31st, up from $955.6 billion during the same period in 2023.
The anticipated uptick in consumer spending follows a moderation in inflation that plagued the economy in the wake of the pandemic and last month's much anticipated interest rate cuts, which have helped ease borrowing costs on consumers.
The labor market has remained strong despite predictions of a recession, which never came to pass amid the Federal Reserve's year-long interest hike rate crusade.
Wage growth has outpaced inflation, giving consumers greater breathing room after higher prices ate away at their buying power for several years.
Taking a closer look at how much individuals are expected to spend this year, this coming from Gallup says that the holiday 2024 holiday shopping season looks promising for retails.
That's according to two Gallup indicators of U.S. consumer gift buying intention.
It says that Americans' estimates of the total amount they will spend this Christmas and on other holiday gifts is slightly higher than what they estimated at this time a year ago.
The latest $1,012 from November 20, from November 6th to 20th survey, that is up from $975 last November.
The new poll also finds Americans less conservative than usual in how they characterize their spending, with almost as many saying they will spend more on gifts, that's 19%, as saying they will spend less at 23%.
Additionally, unlike most years when American holiday spending estimates decreased as the season progresses, the average spending figure hasn't changed since Gallup's initial reading in October.
This morning, we are asking you, will the economy change your holiday spending?
Again, the lines 202-748-8,000.
If you say no, 202-748-8,001.
And if you're not sure, the line 202-748-8002.
Earlier this week on Washington Journal, Moody's senior economic economist, Mark Zandy, was on the program.
He was talking about why people aren't feeling positive about the economy despite strong economic indicators.
Here's that clip.
Yeah, there's this big disconnect between the happy talk you're hearing from economists like me and these surveys.
I mean, I think it's a bunch of stuff, but I think at the top of the list of things is the previously high inflation.
So if you go back two, three years ago, prices were rising for groceries, for rent, for gasoline, the direct result of the disruptions created by the pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine.
And even though those prices are no longer rising to any significant degree, gas prices are down, rents haven't moved in two years, grocery prices are flat over the past year, they're still up 20, 25% from where they were two, three, four years ago.
And that's what people remember.
It's like, you know, I talked to a lot of people in my work and, you know, asked the same question, how you doing financially?
And I am getting the same kind of answer.
And it turns out, at least from my anecdotes, that everyone's got one food item that they buy on a regular basis that they use as a litmus test for how things are going.
You know, Brahmin noodles or kombucha tea.
I don't drink that, but kombucha tea, pound of sugar, baby formula.
So I think that's what has people really irked.
It's really the high inflation.
The other thing I'll just call out very quickly is I think people, our politics are fractured.
You know, people are very heated about their political perspective.
And they're looking at the economy through their political prism.
So, you know, for example, the University of Michigan runs a survey every month.
You know, how you feeling?
And they just released their most recent results.
And the day, just right after the election, the respond to the survey went from being very pessimistic about the economy to much more optimistic.
And the Democrats, just the opposite.
So we're all looking at the world through our own political prism, and it's influencing how we think about things.
For this first hour, we are asking, will the economy change your holiday spending?
We'll start with John in Alabama.
He says yes.
Good morning, John.
Good morning.
Can you hear me?
Yes, I can.
Okay.
So you have a question or do you want me to just respond?
Yeah, go ahead.
What's your plan for the holiday spending?
Okay.
Well, I have to take into consideration, of course, the new election results.
And along with my available income, even though there's been a slight uptick in the overall salary, many of the expenses that I'm reimbursed for have remained steady for the last 10 years.
So you have to consider not just the inflation rate, but the ability to spend at a higher rate when, like this gentleman who just commented, the overall expenses have increased almost a quarter in the last five years.
John, how much do you do you know how much you spent last year on holiday shopping?
Probably $2,000.
And so do you think you'll spend more or less this year because of what you just mentioned, the fact that wages maybe modestly went up, but there's also inflation.
Correct.
Probably about the same because even though we do have a new administration, we don't know what the outcome will be in terms of the overall economy, at least for the short run.
And so I think a conservative approach is a wiser approach until we see how things flesh out.
John, have you already started your holiday shopping?
Actually, I have not because I'm away from home right now, working away from home.
But my wife probably has.
That was John in Alabama.
Elizabeth in Randallstown, Maryland also says yes.
Good morning, Elizabeth.
Yes, good morning.
Thank you for taking my call.
I do very little holiday shopping because I have very little money.
I'm a disabled senior living on a fixed income in Randallstown, Maryland.
And I only buy Christmas cards for my family for the holidays.
I can't afford to buy Christmas presents.
But this year I'm going to donate what little money I have to Gaza to the UN agency that's helping people in Gaza because people in Gaza are starving to death.
It's cold and freezing and the rain and the snow in Palestine is just terrible.
I just read an article on CNN that people have nowhere to go.
Israel is still fighting in Palestine.
And people have no shelter.
They're freezing to death and they're starving to death.
I'm going to donate what little money I have to Gaza.
Thank you very much.
That's all I want to say.
Thank you.
That's Elizabeth.
Nick in Michigan says no.
Good morning, Nick.
Hi.
Yes, I called on the no line because always my spending is not affected by the overall economy.
And always I live well below my means.
So whatever I need to buy, I buy.
I'm not affected by the ups and downs.
But I wanted to make a comment on the various articles you read.
And I don't know if you think those are accurate information.
Let's take the predictions.
They make the prediction that supposedly Black Friday this year will be a record high, 3.5%, whatever, 3% higher than last year or something like that, if I remember well.
Okay, first of all, assume these guys are correct.
Second of all, 3% higher.
How much is inflation?
So in terms of real things bought, okay, in terms of real things bought, it will be at best flat.
Now, back to the 3% inflation, which is actually far higher than that.
If you look at the necessities that people buy, the food, you go to the supermarket.
I was shopping a few days ago, and there was a shelf which had cereal on sale, and it said on sale.
And a little box of cereal was priced at $7.
Now, the cost of the material inside the box, if you have any clue, is like 50 cents at most.
And they sell it for $7.
That's ridiculous.
That's why people voted the way they voted because these official numbers are a fairy tale.
And you need to include inflation.
You need to talk in terms of real dollars.
You can't compare apples to watermelons.
Okay, well, Nick, let's look at it this way.
Regardless of what inflation is and where prices are, how is it going to affect you personally?
I answered that already.
It doesn't affect me one bit.
That's why I call in the proper line.
In the line that says no, it will not change my holiday spending.
That was Nick in Michigan.
This article from NerdWallet is talking about the amount that Americans are planning to spend.
They did their own survey.
It was with 2,000 U.S. adults and also conducted online by Harris Pohl.
According to the survey, more than four in five Americans, 83%, plan to purchase gifts for friends and loved ones this holiday season says that they'll refer to them as holiday shoppers.
They're going to spend, again, that $925 on average.
That's more than 217 million Americans spending over $201 billion.
That's quite a bit higher than the 2023 holiday shopping report.
It says that travel spending is up as well.
The survey found nearly half of Americans, 49%, plan to spend money on flights and hotels during the 2024 holiday season and spending on average of $2,330 for those expenses.
It also says that more than 128 million Americans spent nearly $300 billion on these travel costs compared to $254 billion in the 2023 holiday report.
Again, we are asking you this first hour, will the economy change your holiday spending?
The lines 202-748-8,000.
If you say yes, if you say no, it's 202-748-8001.
And if you're not sure, it's 202-748-8002.
You can also text or send us a message on Facebook.
A couple responses coming in on Twitter or on X. TimeZone says no.
The economy will not change my holiday spending.
My holiday spending will change the economy thanks to President Trump's election.
Things are looking up.
Everyone is saying it.
Best Christmas in over 2,000 years.
Happy days are here again.
The skies above are clear again.
And this coming in from DJ Redding says no, but I'm pretty frugal in my spending year round.
Michael in Tennessee says yes, the economy or the economy will change his holiday spending.
Good morning, Michael.
Hi.
Yes, it is.
My husband and I are planning on spending approximately a little over $5,000.
He's now with my daughter in line for Black Friday.
We're going to spend, and the economy is doing so.
It's just, I don't understand the media.
They sit there and tell us, you know, how bad it is, especially the right-wing Fox News and all that.
But we've been doing so good.
I just filled up my truck for $2.59.
And I just don't understand how people are saying that the economy is so bad.
We went to dinner the other night in Gallatin, Tennessee at a steakhouse, and it was packed.
We had to wait 15 minutes to get a table.
I mean, it's, I don't know.
The next administration coming in, I don't know what Trump is going to do, but who knows.
But as far as my family is concerned, we're doing so great.
Our family, our friends are doing so great.
Everything is doing really well.
So I don't know.
Can any Trump supporter call in and say how bad the economy is?
I don't know.
I really don't know.
Michael, how does this year compare to last year?
Last year was a little bit smaller.
My daughter, we just moved her to Los Angeles.
She's attending USC to become a marine biologist.
And I was like, I just don't know.
I really don't know what people are complaining about.
If you have a good job, my husband and I are both retired from Wall Street.
32 years, this country has given us so much.
We've raised five children and put them all through college.
Our youngest, like I said, Annabelle, she's now at USC in a beautiful one-bedroom apartment five blocks from the campus.
And our four other children are all six figures.
My son, our firstborn, he is a surgeon in Dallas, Texas, married to the most beautiful woman in the world who's a third grade teacher.
And it's just, I don't understand how people are saying that, oh, God, it's so bad, so bad.
It's not, well, in my family, no, it's not bad.
We are all doing great.
We are living the American dream.
That was Michael in Tennessee.
Jerome in Washington, D.C. says, not sure.
Good morning, Jerome.
Good morning.
First of all, I want to respond to that last caller.
It's people like him who obviously ran the Kamala Harris campaign and is why she lost.
He's speaking about his personal experience and at the same time suggesting because of his personal experience, everybody else is stupid.
Now, what I wanted to say, though, actually is: I don't understand why every year people get caught up in this feeling of necessity to celebrate the holidays, put themselves in debt, go into depression.
The suicide rate skyrockets during the holidays because people can't afford certain things that they want to get for a family and loved ones.
So that's the bigger issue.
Why are consumers?
That's who we are.
We're not citizens.
We're not even really humans anymore.
We just consumers.
How is it that we can't break that mental slavery of consumerism that's destroying the country?
That's feeding into a crime.
That's why the youth are running into stores, stealing everything because of consumerism.
You know, money has no value.
It's the things that you buy with the money that people perceive as being valuable.
And it's an illness that's destroying the country as a whole and destroying everyone individually.
Happy holidays.
That was Jerome in Washington, D.C.
And Jerome mentioned individuals going into debt when it comes to holiday spending.
This article in today's Washington Times, the headline, Buy Now, Pay Later Payment Plans Gain Popularity with U.S. shoppers.
The article says that more shoppers than ever on track to use buy now pay later this holiday season as the ability to spread out payments looks attractive at a time when Americans still feel the lingering effect of inflation and already have record high credit card debt.
The data firm Adobe Analytic predicts shoppers will likely spend 11.4% more this holiday season using Buy Now, Pay Later than they did a year ago.
The company forecast shoppers will purchase $18.5 billion worth of goods using the third-party services for the period November 1st to December 31st with $993 million worth of purchases on Cyber Monday alone.
Goes on to say this holiday season, Buy Now, Pay Later, users can also feel more confident if a transaction goes awry.
In May, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said by now, Paylater Company must adhere to other regulations that govern traditional credit, such as providing ways to demand refunds and dispute transactions.
Back to your calls.
Randy in Millington, Michigan says yes.
Good morning, Randy.
Good morning.
I'd like to start by thanking you and all the men and women it takes to bring us this great program.
You're doing the nation a great service.
Yes, my spending will be affected.
I'm lucky enough that I'll be able to spend a little bit more after coming out of the side effects of the pandemic and everything that went on.
So I feel we're going to spend more this year than we did the last two years.
Now, it's not a lot, but every little bit more helps.
And I'm lucky enough that both of my children have got decent jobs.
They're both working well.
Everybody's healthy.
And you can't ask for much more than that.
In this country, when things get tough, we buckle down and do whatever we have to to get through it.
And better times are coming.
So thank you very much.
And I hope everyone enjoys the holiday season coming up.
Randy, can I ask you a question?
Yes, ma'am.
Go right ahead.
When it comes to your holiday spending, you were saying you'll be spending a little bit more.
Do you know where the money would go?
Is it travel?
Is it gifts?
Decorations?
It'll be gifts.
I'm blessed to have a new grandchild.
So we know that's going to throw the budget out of whack.
You know, new grandchild, you got to really, you got to celebrate that.
So, you know, you go up and down with what the times are.
When they're good, you can spend a little bit more and everybody's happy.
When they're bad, you spend a little bit less and you just have to understand that's how it is.
So, but I've been really blessed and I'm quite thankful.
So, like I said, I won't take up any more of the other folks' time.
So, thank you very much and have a great holidays.
That was Randy, and congrats to him on the new grandbaby.
Robert in Little Rock, Arkansas says, no.
Good morning, Robert.
Good morning.
Good morning.
You hear me?
Hi, Robert.
Yes, I do.
Okay, no, I won't change my style.
I'm living the same way I've been living, Eric, for the last eight years.
So it's not going to change?
No, I've been living the same way.
I live on a fixed income.
I got a decent retirement.
I got Social Security.
And I haven't changed my lifestyle, period.
Because if you live within your means, you don't have to worry about it.
But if you try to live like a rock star, you're going to always be in debt.
Robert, how much do you normally spend around the holidays?
Somewhere around a couple hundred dollars for kids and my grandkids.
Always good places to spend your money.
We are getting some text messages and other coming on social channels.
This from Elaine in Abington, Massachusetts.
She says, on a fixed income, and we'll be focusing mostly on the meal and a few small gifts.
And this one from Brian in Arkansas, he says, yes, it will and already has.
We spend most income on food, gas, and utilities.
Let's hear from John and Santa Paul, California says, yes.
Good morning, John.
Good morning.
Yeah, I'm going to. change my spending habits.
I'm probably going to spend about the same amount of money.
But what I'm going to try to do is I'm going to try to buy stuff that's going to get tariffed.
So we know tariffs are coming.
So appliances, things like that is what I'm going to give.
I'm pretty fortunate like that other gentleman.
I've worked all my life.
I've had a really good income and my kids are successful.
What I do is on Christmas and birthdays, you're allowed to gift a certain amount of money, and I use those two holidays to gift money to the maximum extent.
So I give money, and then when I do presents, I'm going to buy stuff that maybe will disappear if they have tariffs.
And I think a lot of products are not going to be here, but I'm going to search for products that possibly will be affected by tariffs that will be cost more later.
So that's what I'm going to do.
John, what kind of appliances are you looking for?
And how long does it take you to pick one when it comes to, if you're looking at various prices?
Well, I don't know.
I was just going to go into Target or something and just look for mixers or things like that and, you know, irons and toasters and stuff like that.
So that's kind of what I was thinking is just buy durable goods and things that they can use in everyday life and coffee makers, things like that.
So these all, if they are tariffed from China, you know, anything made from China, I'm going to, you know, I can get it now.
So I think that, but I think I'm very optimistic on the economy.
I'm super optimistic because Trump has put all young people as his cabinet picks.
I tell you, the average age is probably 55, and I'm really excited that he's opening it up for the younger generations.
And I really, really think that next year is going to be rocky, but I think overall in the long term, we're going to come out in four years a very, very strong country.
And hopefully everybody will have a good chance at the American dream and like I had.
And if you work hard and keep clean and do all that, you're going to go well.
Just don't get out of your zone and just stay in your zone.
So anyway, I just wish everybody the best holidays.
And I've been fortunate and I just really, I've got some close friends that I'm going to take out to dinner, you know, that are hurting.
And so I'm going to do some stuff like that, some charity work with my close friends, not through an institution, but I'm just going to take care of some of my friends that I know that are hurting.
So that's kind of my holiday season.
So that was John in California.
This and this morning's USA Today, Side Gigs Can Help Pay for Holiday Gifts.
It says according to a survey by sidehustles.com found that 87% of Americans are either already side hustling or plan to pick up a side gig to afford the holiday expenses.
Of those respondents, 59% already have an extra job and another 19% plan on starting one.
And another study by Resumetemplates.com, 70% of full-time employees said they would take on additional work to afford the holidays.
40% of full-time workers said they already have a side gig, and 30% said they plan to pick up a side hustle.
Employees said they would do gig work, seasonal retail jobs, and freelancing to boost their incomes.
Let's hear from Lawrence in Lehigh Acres, Florida.
He says, Yes.
Good morning, Lawrence.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Hi, Lawrence.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes, I can.
Yeah, yeah, well, yes, it does affect.
As a matter of fact, this has been going on for some time.
It doesn't make any sense how they have been managing the funds in this country.
They raise the amount of money you can make an hour, and yet they turn around and raise the cost of the food.
And you're not getting anything more in the cans or even a piece of candy.
$1 or 50 cents is now $1.50.
I mean, it's ridiculous.
And as if they cannot control things.
Sending a lot of move to foreign lands to help them out with their problems.
And it's like they always, somebody always got to be in somebody else's backyard, you know.
But you can't go in their backyard.
You can't go, they can't go in your backyard, but always got to do be in their backyard or close to it.
Lawrence, how is the economy going to change how you spend on the holidays?
Will you be spending, you're going to be spending less?
I'm only spending half what I would have liked to spend.
I got 11 grand and great-grandchildren.
Instead of sending them 500, I can only right now have spent 250.
I mean, it's ridiculous.
What about our country?
Why we don't have people with all these educational things that we have, all these educations, all these colleges and universities.
How come we can't live better than this?
I mean, I live simple.
I like a simple life.
I don't like to make things complicated and then people don't know what's going on.
It's like they have a world of their own, and then everybody's supposed to follow that.
That was Lawrence in Florida.
Tom in Indiana says no.
Good morning, Tom.
Yeah, my wife and I are senior retirees, and we've been so for over 20 years.
And we've always lived frugally and beneath our means.
And we have the same Christmas and Easter and Thanksgiving decorations that we've had for years.
We don't add to it.
But frugal is the way to go.
And living beneath your means is the way to go.
And stay off those credit cards just to shop happy moments.
Tom, you're talking about you're spending the same amount, so it's not going to change.
How has inflation and rising prices impacted the past few holidays for you?
Not at all.
I mean, because we basically, again, we buy certain things, and it's normal, on a normal list.
And the inflation had a little bit of impact on us, but I would say, in terms of a major impact, no.
That was Tom in Indiana.
Pete in Massachusetts also says no.
Good morning, Pete.
Hi, good morning.
Yeah, not at all.
You know, I think maybe I live in a bubble.
I mean, I have a nice job, but my last four years have been the best I've had from my portfolio.
So, no, it won't.
I'll be able to do what I want.
But, you know, I do understand that people, some people are hurting, but I think this economy, I'd like to call her a couple ahead, said it's not nearly as bad as it's portrayed.
And I think the Democrats did a really bad job of messaging instead of accentuating a lot of the positives.
So I know I'm going to get some blowback probably from some of your other callers, but, you know, I think things are fairly robust.
And I think if they're counting on this administration to really change things, I think they're going to be in per severe disappointment.
And I really have my questions why people are not more leery of the Trump-Musk marriage.
Because if you think they are out for you, I think you are sadly mistaken.
That was Pete in Massachusetts.
This coming in from Rob in Huntington, West Virginia, he says, my general philosophy is to live well below my means.
So hopefully I will be able to fend for myself without help from anybody else.
I don't let myself get pressured into spending a lot on Christmas gifts, especially for adults.
For me, it's more about getting together or reaching out to loved ones.
We have just about 25 minutes or so left in this first hour asking, will the economy change your holiday spending?
The lines, if you say yes, 202-748-8,000.
If you say no, 202-748-8001.
And if you're not sure, it's 202-748-8002.
You can also send us messages on social media and by text.
This in this morning's Wall Street Journal.
It is an opinion piece from Judy Shelton.
She's a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, and she's author of the book, Good is Gold, How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money.
She says, the headline, Trump should change the Fed's policies.
She says, now that Donald Trump is the president-elect, expect warnings about the dangers of compromising the independence of the Federal Reserve, monetary officials will solemnly explain that politics should play no part in decisions about long-term financial stability.
We should be more concerned about the concentrated power held by the 12 voting members of the Fed's open market committee.
Their decisions can decrease or increase unemployment, lower or raise inflation, and repress or stimulate economic growth.
She goes on to say the Fed's decision reward some people and hurt others with obvious political implications.
Almost 62% of the gain in U.S. household wealth over the past four years went to those in the top 10% wealthy percentile group.
Those outside, these outside gains for the wealthiest Americans are the result of monetary policy that sent stock prices soaring, which primarily benefited people already flush with assets.
This kind of wealth inequity prompts voters to demand change.
Mr. Trump built his economic agenda around addressing these grievances, promising lower inflation, fighting interest rates, higher wages, and higher growth.
But unless these goals align with the Fed's model for achieving it, achieving its dual mandate, maximum employment, and stable prices, the central bank could undercut Mr. Trump's agenda.
Back to your calls.
Scott in St. Peter's, Missouri says no, the holiday spending or the economy will not change his holiday spending.
Good morning, Scott.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Good morning, Scott.
We hear you.
Well, I just called in to say that the economy is not going to change the way I spend my Christmas because I haven't had four bad years.
I've had four great years.
And I think the country runs just fine the way it's going right now.
And I don't see why anybody would want to change much except on Social Security where they have a ceiling on how much they pay.
There should be no ceiling whatsoever.
Scott, you said the past four years have been great for you.
Do you have any concerns about the possibility of tariffs coming in and affecting you?
Yeah, I'm not too crazy about it, but you know, I've had a good life.
I'm 70 years old.
I've had a good life my whole life because I've always worked hard.
The only people that suffer are the ones that don't want to work.
Just like unemployment, they can't go past a store now that doesn't have a sign-out help want it, and you can't get nobody to work.
Scott, do you own a business?
No, I don't.
I'm just a retired construction worker.
That was Scott in Missouri.
Sue in Bloomington, Illinois also says no.
Good morning, Sue.
Hi.
Yeah, no, it's not going to change my spending.
I find I get really irritated and not depressed, but I just think it's sad that people are going to go out and spend money they don't have.
And I just feel like Christmas has turned into just people shoving merchandise at each other.
I will buy for my nieces and nephews of a certain age, but if you're an adult, you don't need people buying you presents.
What's wrong with you?
I just think it's ridiculous to spend all this money.
Six months from now, these kids won't even remember they got these gifts.
But I think we've just all been gaslighted into thinking we need to spend, spend, spend.
And I wish people would just come to their senses and realize you don't have to do that, especially if you're an adult.
Don't expect people to buy you gifts.
It's just ridiculous.
So you said you usually buy for younger, maybe kids, people.
Yeah, kids, yeah, kids, yeah, they should get gifts at Christmas.
How much do you normally spend?
Oh, probably three or four hundred bucks.
I've got just like four great nieces and nephews.
Yeah, I think Christmas is for kids.
I mean, there's just too much emphasis on the junk.
And I agree, if you're going out shopping, you better buy two of each because next year, just wait.
These prices are going to be really high.
That was Sue.
And wanted to share some additional findings from the NerdWallet article.
Sue mentioned taking on debt for holiday spending.
And one of the key findings from NerdWallet says that the survey found that nearly three in 10 Americans who used credit cards to pay for holiday gifts last year, that's 28%, still haven't paid off their balances.
Likewise, the same proportion, 28% of 2023 holiday travelers who put flights and hotel stays on credit cards still haven't paid off those balances.
It says that holiday giving may cause shopper stress, possibly in the name of showing they care.
It says more than half of 2024 holiday shoppers, 55%, say the costs associated with holiday spending stresses them out.
But 32% of shoppers think it's important to purchase holiday gifts and expenses despite the cost to show others love.
Back to your calls.
We'll hear from Michael in Lancaster, California.
He says, no.
Good morning, Michael.
Good morning.
It's not really going to change anything in my life because I try to budget for holidays, which I don't go out and do a lot of spending.
And I understand what everyone's saying.
They don't have any money, but there's more flights, more travel, more everything going on today than been going on in years.
And for the past 20 years, people have been using their credit cards for Christmas.
And I don't understand that.
I just, you've got a budget for everything.
So I just budget for my grandkids.
I budget for my kid.
And I don't have their problem.
That was Michael in California.
George, Missouri says yes.
Good morning, George.
Good morning.
Morning.
I haven't changed my spending enough, but yes, it's going to get bad.
People that voted for this next president, they think things are bad now.
Things are going to be heck of a lot worse.
They better buckle up.
They better face the truth about it.
The economy is getting better.
Like the vice president ran for office.
She said that things are going to go down.
They're going to price gouges and they're going to fix it.
Trump has said nothing about that.
So the people better buckle up because COVID is going to get a heck of a lot worse, a lot worse.
Thank you for the call.
Linda in George, Connecticut says yes.
Good morning, Linda.
Yes, we're going to be able to spend a little more this year.
Our gas prices have been down.
We're retired now.
We don't spend money on clothing or all those expenses that we used to have.
So we're going to enjoy spending money on our children and grandchildren.
And hopefully things will be just as well next year.
Linda, how much do you typically spend on the holidays?
Well, according to my husband, it's too much, and I intend to spend more this year.
So usually around for 14 people, around $2,000.
And what do you typically focus on?
Is it gifts or travel, food?
No, no, I keep it to a Congress combination of clothing, a couple frivolous toys, some books, that kind of stuff.
That was Linda in Connecticut.
And one of our earlier callers, or a couple have mentioned the possibility of prices increasing because of the tariffs that President-elect Trump has suggested.
This headline in today's USA Today, Trump's tariffs could stoke inflation even before they start.
It says that in 2023, the tariffs announced Monday would erode the purchase power of the average American household by $1,200, says Ernie Tester Chai, Director of Economics at the Yale Budget Lab.
Though consumers may be able to shift some spending patterns from items that are imported to domestic versions, for example, that's not possible with every category of consumer good.
One example is agriculture.
The United States is Mexico's largest agricultural trade partner, buying about 92% of Mexican exports in the category according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
If the cost discrepancy, Cost of discretionary items like electronics or apparel goes up, the consumer might be able to delay or skip those purchases.
Tess Chai says, but tariffs on fresh food will be harder to substitute, at least in the short term, while retailers search for other suppliers.
Just about 15 minutes left.
We'll hear next from Susan in Brunswick, Georgia.
She says, yes, that spending, the economy will change her spending this holiday season.
Good morning, Susan.
Yes, my spending this year, I am not buying any Christmas gifts for anybody.
Unfortunate enough, where we don't have small kids anymore.
And I think that Christmas does need to be overhauled, and Christmas spending should be for the little kids.
So I am changing my habits.
But one big thing that's making me change my habits, we need to stop spending our money on all that cheap stuff that's coming from China, period.
If we stop spending our money on things that are coming from China, which is just cheap stuff, you'll see that this economy in this country will turn around real good.
And we need to start looking for things that are made in this country.
But I have also taken a stance in not buying any cheap stuff that comes from China.
Thank you.
I appreciate it.
Bye-bye.
That was Susan.
Sophia and Raleigh, North Carolina, says no.
Good morning, Sophia.
Good morning, Tammy.
Thank you for taking my call.
I wanted to make a comment.
Well, no, basically, I just try to be generous all year and tithe and give.
I'll just listen to God and try to be as generous as I can.
So I don't know exactly what the amount will be, but just try to be generous in my heart and whatever I can do.
I wanted to make a comment quickly about the topic for today.
I don't understand.
Maybe you can explain to me why we can't say the word Christmas and Hanukkah.
Who's telling you you can't say Christmas or Hanukkah?
Sophia, are you still there?
I think we've lost Sophia.
We'll go on to Ellen in Testing, California.
She says, yes.
Good morning, Ellen.
Hello.
Yeah, I have lived in California all my life, and I don't want them to get rid of the DEI, you know, diversity, inclusion, and the DEI.
I think I'm saying it right.
Anyway, I worked for my job for 44 years.
I didn't find out about IRAs and 401ks in the last five years of my working life.
There needs to be inclusion so people know what to do.
The Vietnamese people, the Southeast Asian people that I worked with, told me when they came to this country, they stopped on an island and they were indoctrinated as to what you should do to become wealthy.
Now I attend a senior center and there's a lot of people there, not a lot, okay.
A handful of people I work with there, and they told me, oh, I'm rich, but nobody told me I worked alone.
And I was an orphan and a went to foster care to foster care and orphanages.
So if you don't know, you don't know.
Okay.
That was Ellen in California.
Peter, Staten Island, New York, says no.
Good morning, Peter.
How are you doing?
I'm a combat Marine with disabilities, and I feel at this point before Donald Trump is going to get in, people ought to just take their time and watch what they spend.
You got to be careful with your money because you can easily lose it very quickly.
So buying things you don't need is one thing, but buying things you do need is another thing.
And people, though, it's Black Friday, they're running around crazy.
They're going to buy this, buy that.
I just think they ought to just slow down, wait till this president gets in, and then just start building and saving a few hours.
You know, I'm 77 years old, and at this point, you know, I'm in pretty good shape.
But what I got to do is you always got to think ahead and save money.
I mean, money, you know, it won't get your happiness, but we always get your food.
And it's a shame that's what's going on with all these people that are homeless and veterans and stuff like that.
So I'm not going to tie you up because I don't want to go from one subject to the other.
But, you know, just take care of yourself and just watch the money.
It's very, very simple, okay?
That was Peter in New York.
Tony in Indiana says yes.
Good morning, Tony.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Hi, Tony.
Go ahead.
Yes.
Yeah, it's definitely going to change the way we spend this year.
You know, the way everything was the last time with the tariffs and everything, the line of work that I'm in, we do a lot of aluminum work, and we barely made it through with all the tariffs the last time.
And with the incoming president, he's talking tariffs again already.
We're not going to spend anything on Christmas this year.
We're going to save what little bit we have and try and make sure that we can keep our house and keep everything we have.
So, yeah, it's going to make a big difference on everything.
Tony, how did you were talking about the tariffs on steel?
How much did they impact you?
And are you back to where you were before?
It made a big impact on us because we were in the line of business where we already had our pricing set on what we sold.
We were in the RV industry.
We still are.
So you already have your pricing set.
And then aluminum prices go up because of imports, not only on aluminum, but on all the parts you import from overseas to build RVs.
And then you can't adjust those prices.
You've already sold that.
You've already sold those RVs.
So yeah, it made a big difference.
We were going really good, but then election year comes up again.
So yeah, it's our sales have gone way down.
Everything's scaling way back right now.
And borders are just down big time.
And they're not coming back up.
And I don't see them coming back up like they always have.
I've been in this industry since 1980.
And this is the first time that I haven't seen it, you know, even right after the election making already starting to make a big rebound.
That was Tony in Indiana.
Sophia in Raleigh, North Carolina, says no.
Good morning, Sophia.
Can you hear me?
Because I got cut off last time.
I don't know if it's my phone.
Can you hear me clearly?
I can hear you now, Sophia.
Yeah, go ahead.
If I'm hearing some static, I'm sorry if it's my phone.
It's charged.
I don't know what's happening.
Okay, I'm going to try to move around.
Can you kindly tell me who decides the topic in terms of using the word holiday instead of Christmas and Hanukkah?
Why are we leaving out?
To me, the holidays, it's about the birth of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.
It is also Hanukkah.
Why can't we say Christmas and Hanukkah?
And can you tell me who decides how to pose the question for the day?
Sure.
There's a team of producers here.
We're overseen by an executive producer.
And when we use a word like holiday, it's all-encompassing.
It's things like Christmas, New Year, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa.
It's more of a catch-all versus trying to put all of that on a graphic.
Nobody is against any of those holidays, Sophia.
Okay.
I would just like to hope that that would change and actually to name the holidays.
And Kwanzaa, I didn't know much about it, but I did quickly look it up before I called you.
And I'm all for celebrating African American heritage, but I did not realize it was a non-Christian holiday.
I have someone call in because I did just look it up.
So anyway, I just would like to hear the specific holidays.
Put on there, what is your spending for Christmas, Hanukkah?
If you want to throw Kwanzaa in, even though it's a non-Christian holiday.
But to me, we should name the holidays.
And I don't know why we can't do that.
Okay, but anyway.
All right.
Thank you for taking away.
Thanks, Sophia.
We appreciate it.
Sean in Maine is not sure about the economy and the impact on his holiday spending.
Good morning, Sean.
Good morning.
How are you today?
Doing well.
I'm not sure because I think we're probably going to spend the same amount of money.
But rather than trying to spread it across minor gifts for lots of people, it'll probably go towards better gifts for the kids because the adults kind of understand what's going on right now, but the kids don't.
So, and then just aiming the funds elsewhere.
And I kind of have a problem with the fear-mongering going on about the tariffs.
Convincing everybody that their lives are going to change to the tune of $1,200 a month in the next coming months is kind of rough to be doing around Christmastime.
It's not going to affect people as much as they think it does.
It's meant to get you to buy things made in the USA.
For example, I've replaced three cured coffee machines in the last five, six years.
I should have bought a bun, which is made in America.
It only costs $120 and has a great warranty.
It would have taken care of it.
Do some research and find your American-made products, and you'd be surprised.
And a lot of that money is going to help your neighbors, people that work at factories.
That was Sean in Maine looking at the National Retail Federation and what they are expecting people to spend on holiday shopping.
Again, this year 2024 is $902.
That is a record.
The next closest amount, that was $880, or I'm sorry, $886 in 2019 pre-pandemic.
It says that nearly all U.S. adults, 92%, plan to celebrate winter holidays such as Christmas, Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa this year.
That's in line with 2023.
Nearly half, 45% of holiday shoppers plan to browse and buy items before November, which is consistent with recent years and up from 40% 10 years ago.
The top reason for early shopping includes spreading out their budget.
59% of individuals said that.
Avoiding the stress of last-minute shopping, 45% had that response.
Avoiding crowds, 42%, and perusing prices or promotions that cannot be missed, 42%.
And it says that despite the early start, most consumers, 62%, anticipate finishing their shopping in December.
Just a few minutes left up next.
Thomas, Lincoln Park, Michigan, says yes.
Good morning, Thomas.
Good morning.
How are you today?
Doing well, Thomas.
Hey, I'm calling.
It's going to affect me a little bit, not a whole lot, but you know, your dollar's not going as far.
We just had the worst four years on the economy as far as groceries, building supplies, and everything else.
So everything is going to cost your dollars not going as far.
As far as the tariffs, Hoover, one of the great presidents, pulled us out of the Great Depression with tariffs.
There was the 1932 Construction Emergency Act, and there was another one.
So I think the fear-mongering should stop, and it's really hyped up.
The problem is, we have, we just went through the worst four years from the 325,000 children that were lost at the southern border to the highest grocery prices ever.
So that's my opinion.
And I appreciate you guys for letting me view it.
That was Thomas in Michigan.
Scott in Illinois says no.
Good morning, Scott.
Good morning.
I'd like to wish the world a Merry Christmas, the birth of Jesus.
I just want to say, when we grew up, we didn't get a lot of toys and a lot of gifts and things like this.
But what we did is, you know, we built forts with blankets on the kitchen table and we made things.
And now it's just buy, buy, buy.
Well, I've got five great-grandchildren, and we had a big Christmas a couple years ago, and everybody brought toys and things.
The kids played with the boxes in the kitchen.
They didn't care about the toys.
So what I recommend, people, is check your garages, check your closets, check your basement.
We're Americans.
Most of us, everything is filled.
I'm not saying give away your old stuff, but Americans have been spoiled for their whole life with we just have so much stuff.
It's just crazy.
So go back to peace again and bring peace in the world.
Let's have some common sense again.
Thank you, people.
That was Scott Bonnie in Pennsylvania says no.
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie, are you there?
We'll give Bonnie one more opportunity.
It looks like we don't have Bonnie.
Call us back, Bonnie, if you just stepped away from your phone.
One more article from this morning's Washington Times.
Black Friday's history tells the story of holiday shopping mayhem.
It says that hoping to entice equivocating consumers, retailers have already spent weeks bombarding customers with ads and early offers, still whether visiting stores or clicking on countless emails promising huge savings.
Tens of millions of U.S. shoppers are expected to spend money on Black Friday itself this year.
Industry forecast estimates 183.4 million people will shop in U.S. stores and online between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.
That's according to the National Retail Federation and consumer research firm Proper Insights and Analytics.
Of that number, 131.7 million are expected to shop on Black Friday.
That is today.
Says the term Black Friday is several generations old, but it wasn't always associated with the holiday retail frenzy that we know today.
The gold market crash of September 1869, for example, was notably dubbed Black Friday.
The phrase used in relation to shopping day after Thanksgiving, however, is most often traced to Philadelphia in the mid-20th century when police and other city workers had to deal with large crowds that congregated before the annual Army-Navy football game to take advantage of seasonal sales.
That Black Friday is today, and we are going to continue talking about the issue of Black Friday and consumer confidence and holiday spending next with CNBC retail and consumer reporter Melissa Repko.
She will join us in just a few minutes.
And later in the program, Arms Control Association Executive Director Darrell Kimball will join us to discuss changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine and how it could impact the U.S. and its allies.
We'll be right back.
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According to Brown University professor Corey Brettsnyder, the following presidents in history threatened democracy.
Here are his words from the introduction of his book, The Presidents and the People.
Quote: John Adams waged war on the national press, prosecuting as many as 126 who dared criticize him.
James Buchanan colluded with the Supreme Court to deny constitutional personhood to African Americans.
Andrew Johnson urged violence against his political opponents.
Woodrow Wilson nationalized Jim Crow by segregating the federal government.
And finally, Richard Nixon committed criminal acts ordering the Watergate break-in.
Corey Brett Schneider teaches constitutional law and politics at his Providence, Rhode Island-based Brown University.
Brown University professor Corey Bretschneider with his book, The Presidents and the People: Five Leaders Who Threatened Democracy and the Citizens Who Fought to Defend It.
On this episode of BookNotes Plus with our host, Brian Lamb.
Book Notes Plus is available on the C-SPAN Now free mobile app or wherever you get your podcasts.
American History TV, Saturdays on C-SPAN 2, exploring the people and events that tell the American story.
This weekend at 2 p.m. Eastern, conversations with veterans and historians on World War II.
Hear from Merchant Marines, the last Rosie the Riveter, Buffalo Soldiers of the Korean War, Holocaust survivors, and more.
And at 9:30 p.m. Eastern on the presidency, actor Dennis Quaid portrays Ronald Reagan in the film Reagan and headlines a cast discussion about the movie.
The 40th President's story is told through the eyes of a KGB agent and is based on the Soviet Union's real-life surveillance of Ronald Reagan.
The event features several clips from the film.
Exploring the American story.
Watch American History TV Saturdays on C-SPAN 2 and find a full schedule on your program guide or watch online anytime at c-span.org slash history.
Washington Journal continues.
Joining us now to discuss consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is Melissa Repkrow, retail and consumer reporter for CNBC.
Melissa, welcome to the program.
Thanks for having me.
Thanks for being with us this morning.
A busy day for you.
You are a retail and consumer reporter for CNBC.
What are retailers expecting this holiday shopping season?
Holiday shopping is expected to rise by 2.5% to 3.5% according to the National Retail Federation.
That is more muted than it was last year when it went up by 3.9%, but it still amounts to almost $980 billion at the starting range.
So this is a significant sum of money and it is still expected to rise year over year pretty significantly, even though it wasn't quite as high as last year's predictions.
And what's changed from last year to this year?
One of the things I've heard from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and a lot of companies that have reported earnings over the past two weeks is that consumers have been pretty consistent.
They are looking for deals.
They are being selective.
They're choosing to spend in some areas but pull back in others.
And it's really this mentality that it remains sticky because of inflation.
People have gotten used to prices being higher and so they've made trade-offs with their spending.
So they may be willing to splurge on a new outfit, but in other ways they're looking to save and they're holding back until they find the very best deals.
And today is Black Friday.
Does the shopping day have the same impact with consumers that it used to?
Years ago, we would see crowds line up at malls and stores and be trying to get in for that flat screen TV and a lot of consumer electronics.
And now a lot of that shopping has shifted online.
But deals do matter and days like this do matter, especially in a year when consumers are being very choosy and are waiting until they see the item that they want on sale.
And so that makes retailers very much lean into these promotional moments.
What I heard from Best Buy most recently, Best Buy CEO Corey Berry was telling me that people are, they expect to see more peaks and valleys throughout the holiday season because during the events where things are 20, 30, 40% off, people are willing to spend, but then they wait until the next promotional event.
And so that's why days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday matter, especially in this environment.
And speaking of the environment, what kind of mood are holiday shoppers in?
Are they looking to get those deals right now?
Are they planning to wait?
How do they feel about the holiday this year?
One difference of the calendar is that there are five fewer days this year between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
And while that might feel very subtle, in a year when people still have the same number of relatives to shop for, they're going to be cramming that shopping into potentially a shorter amount of time.
They may have shopped in October, but there was also distraction this year with the presidential election.
And surveys from Circana, which does market research with retailers, found that during those two weeks during the election, people pulled back on spending.
And so they may be trying to cram more spending in a shorter amount of time this year.
So we may be seeing more rush shipping and things like that, curbside pickup at stores as people try to get all the things checked off their guest list and gift list.
Our guest, Melissa Repko, she's a retail and consumer reporter for CNBC.
She's our guest for the next 40 minutes.
We're talking about consumer confidence, the U.S. economy, and that includes holiday spending.
If you have a question or comment for her, you can start calling in now.
Wanted to let you know that the lines for this segment are broken down regionally.
If you are in the Eastern or Central time zone, the line is 202-748-8000.
And if you are in the Mountain or Pacific time zone, it's 202-748-8001.
Melissa, it's Black Friday.
It's just the start of a long holiday shopping weekend.
There's a small business Saturday tomorrow.
There's Cyber Monday or Cyber Monday beginning next week.
Where are Americans doing their holiday shopping this year?
It's a good question, and it's really a mixed bag.
A lot of shoppers now start searching for deals online and then fulfill that order at the store.
So curbside pickup has become a really meaningful piece of retailers' holiday season.
People will buy online and then pick up the store later, maybe when they're picking up groceries.
And so those shopping behaviors don't look the same.
That's why you don't see the same kind of doorbusters that we used to see years ago, because a lot of people can do a lot of their research from home and even place that order, get it dropped off at their doorstep, or not even leave their car and just wait in the parking lot for those gifts to be dropped off in their trunk.
And how are retailers approaching the Black Friday in the holiday shopping season?
Is it a profitable time for them?
And how are they, what are they looking for when it comes to promotions and sales?
One of the dynamics that I think we'll see is a lot of retailers spoke about challenges with warmer weather over the past month.
And they saw that cold snap not quite hit.
And so they have a lot of apparel.
They have a lot of sweaters.
They have a lot of coats.
And I anticipate that we'll see a lot of sales on those kinds of items, those wintry items, during the Black Friday deals, but also going into Cyber Monday as they try to offload some of that inventory because so many of them spoke about that over the past week.
A lot of them said that they want to get rid of those types of items.
The other thing that Best Buy said is Black Friday is always promotional.
This is a big time for consumer electronics.
A lot of customers are looking for things like AirPods or TVs or iPads.
And so this is a time when they really want to promote their best deals throughout the weekend to try to get people to pick consumer electronics over other types of gifts like gift cards and experiences, which have been in high demand from customers too.
Melissa, we had Mark Zandy, Moody's senior economist on the program on Wednesday.
He was talking about why people aren't feeling positive about the economy despite strong indicators.
We wanted to play this out and we'll get your reaction on the other side.
Yeah, there's this big disconnect between the happy talk you're hearing from economists like me and these surveys.
I mean, I think it's a bunch of stuff, but I think at the top of the list of things is the previously high inflation.
So if you go back two, three years ago, prices were rising for groceries, for rent, for gasoline, the direct result of the disruptions created by the pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine.
And even though those prices are no longer rising to any significant degree, gas prices are down, rents haven't moved in two years, grocery prices are flat over the past year.
They're still up 20, 25% from where they were two, three, four years ago.
And that's what people remember.
It's like, you know, I talked to a lot of people in my work and, you know, asked the same question, how you doing financially?
And I am getting the same kind of answer.
And it turns out, at least from my anecdotes, that everyone's got one food item that they buy on a regular basis that they use as a litmus test for how things are going.
You know, ramen noodles or kombucha tea.
I don't drink that, but kombucha tea, pound of sugar, baby formula.
So I think that's what has people really irked.
It's really the high inflation.
The other thing I'll just call out very quickly is I think people, our politics are fractured.
You know, people are very heated about their political perspective and they're looking at the economy through their political prism.
So, you know, for example, the University of Michigan runs a survey every month.
You know, how are you feeling?
And they just released their most recent results.
And the day, just right after the election, the Republicans that responded to the survey went from being very pessimistic about the economy to much more optimistic, and the Democrats, just the opposite.
So we're all looking at the world through our own political prism, and it's influencing how we think about things.
Melissa, one of the things that Mark was talking about there is inflation.
How is that impacting how much or what consumers are buying, and how is it also impacting retailers?
Mark's comments are really on point.
That's something that I've heard from both retail leaders and also from consumers I've interviewed when out of the mall, out of grocery stores.
Food inflation may be coming down and it's now at single-digit levels, so it's back to more historical levels.
That being said, it's a whole lot more expensive to buy milk, eggs, and so many other things than it was compared to pre-pandemic.
And so what that means is as the grocery bill is higher, people have to make cuts elsewhere.
And where they're cutting is in more of those wants versus needs.
And you hear that from Walmart, you hear that from Home Depot, you hear that from Target.
They're noticing people are buying fewer items as they focus on necessities.
So when they're paying more for things like paper towels and shampoo and the things that they need for their everyday routine, that means they can't spend as much on a new outfit or a beauty item.
And so they look for ways to trim back the budget.
And we're seeing that play out.
And going into the holiday season, it's one of those rare moments when retailers do get to sell a lot more discretionary merchandise.
And one of the things that Walmart notices 11 quarters in a row, it noticed that general merchandise, which is the stuff that's outside of those household cleaning aisles, outside of grocery, was down.
It declined year over year for 11 quarters straight.
And for the past two quarters, they've seen some slight uptick, which may indicate that consumers are feeling a little bit more ready to spend on those wants versus needs.
But there's still pressure on that this holiday season.
And like I mentioned, it's one of those rare moments when retailers can encourage people to buy things like toys or beauty items or new clothing because they are looking for gifts and they may be more willing to spend than they otherwise would be.
We have callers waiting to talk with you.
We will start with Antigon in San Rafael, California.
Good morning.
Antigon, are you there?
One more time, Antigon, are you there in San Rafael, California?
Go ahead and give us a call back.
If you were just stepped away from your phone, Melissa, I wanted to show some of the recent highlight or headlines from articles that you've written.
One, target shares plunge 21% after discounter cut forecasts post biggest earnings miss in two years.
Another, Walmart hikes its outlook again as shoppers spend more outside the grocery aisle.
And another one, Home Depot sales are improving, but it says consumers are still cautious about spending.
It's a little bit of a retail roller coaster going through some of those.
Explain how companies are making their forecast and what's causing them to change their expectations.
We've seen a huge amount of variation and we're really seeing some distinct winners and losers in this environment.
Walmart being one of the winners.
It's known for value.
It's really leaned into value during this time.
Target, on the other hand, sells a lot of discretionary merchandise.
The kind of stuff that I've mentioned is under pressure, where households are cutting back.
So if they're buying fewer throw pillows, fewer new sweaters, fewer toys, fewer lipsticks, that means that Target's going to feel it more than Walmart, which sells more groceries and more of those everyday items.
With Home Depot, they're dealing with a dynamic that's affecting a lot of retail too.
Housing turnover has been slow.
Housing remains a very high cost that's been very inflationary during this time.
And so that means that when there's fewer homes on sale and fewer people putting their homes on the market, they're not taking on the same level of projects they would normally be with painting their home, fixing it up to put it on the market, or fixing it up when they buy that home and move in.
And so we're seeing that kind of trickle through the whole retail space because even places like Target are seeing they're selling fewer home goods.
So that's everything from kitchen appliances, smaller kitchen appliances like a coffee maker to things like new towels or linens because people tend to buy those things more when they're stocking up a new home or refreshing their home.
And is there an impact to consumers when a company may change their forecast?
So when companies change their forecast, it of course affects the stock market and how investors feel about that, but often it's responding to where consumers are spending and where they're skimping.
And Target has felt consumer skimping in a lot of the categories throughout their store.
And so it's really reflecting that sort of shift.
Same thing with Home Depot and Lowe's.
They have noticed and felt the impact of pullback on housing turnover.
And the past couple of years, before the housing market became more of a factor for them, they were feeling a pullback because there was so much spending, outsized spending on homes during the pandemic.
We're even seeing that in consumer electronics.
Best Buy has spoken about how they're still dealing with the fact that people bought so many laptops, so many home office supplies during those pandemic years.
And these are big purchases that people don't make frequently.
So it takes time for that replacement cycle to start back up again.
So you're still seeing that go through the whole retail economy.
But most importantly, we are seeing this dynamic of people spending more once or more on needs versus once.
And until people feel more comfortable with the amount of money they have in their wallet, they're not going to spend as freely on those discretionary items.
Patrick in Maryland.
Good morning, Patrick.
Good morning.
You don't think that the prices are dropping because humanity, well, not humanity, but America has noticed a marketing hype.
You know, so they're put off by the hype.
And then not only that, but what population, demographically, okay, higher class, middle class, lower class, right?
Which one of them is populating more, right?
So then you look at the housing market and you see who are you marketing to, right?
Are they able to afford all these homes, right?
But not only that, but why has the housing market just been building, building, building, right?
But not waiting for the population to catch up.
So now you have all these empty homes, right?
But the consumer can't buy it.
Depending on which region, the higher class, middle class, or lower class is able to afford said houses, right?
So if you have the middle class that's populating, the lower class that's populating more than the higher class, right?
They're not going to be able to afford Target, right?
So they're going to go down to these lower areas, right?
DJ Max is doing good, right?
Target, all those other, they're higher middle class populations that are able to go to those stores, right?
So the demographic is changing, right, towards the lower side of things.
And not only that, but overpopulation, but in what areas?
So you can't really sell to those consumers.
Patrick, we'll get a response from Melissa.
Patrick, that's a really good point that TJ Maxx and places that are catering to value have seen a lot of growth.
And it's worth noting they're not just seeing growth from middle and lower income families.
Walmart CFO told me, and has told me consistently over the past several quarters, their biggest market share gains are coming from households that make $100,000 per year and more.
So that means that even upper income consumers, upper-income Americans, are looking for better deals when it comes to groceries and a lot of everyday items.
We're also seeing on the housing side, one of the biggest dynamics that's challenging housing is high interest rates.
As high interest rates continue, even though the Fed is cutting, mortgage rates have remained very high.
And so that means that people are waiting on the sidelines to buy a home because they want to get a better mortgage rate.
And a lot of Americans are already locked in to a low mortgage rate, so they don't want to move to a bigger home if that means that they have to give up that low mortgage.
So that's one of the challenging dynamics.
And it's worth noting there are some population dynamics here.
The two largest generations are millennials and baby boomers.
And we've seen a lot of baby boomers age in place rather than downsizing.
So that means the two largest generations in the country are competing for the same housing supply during a period when mortgage rates are high.
So there's a couple of different population dynamics at play here too.
Kyle in Reno, Nevada.
Good morning, Kyle.
Good morning.
How are you, ladies?
We're doing well, Kyle.
Thank you.
I have what I hope to be a very simple question.
I'm a disabled veteran.
So as my personal economics goes, my growth is only based upon what COLA can be invited.
I'm not allowed to have a job.
So what mechanisms I've never seen prices come backwards towards my disposable income.
I don't live in an upper class financial status.
So obviously I'm going to feel things.
What mechanisms can any administration or agency do to actually let me feel like I'm getting to use more of my disposable income, i.e. less inflation?
And as far as a housing comment, year over year, my rents have gone up 10 to 17 percent in the apartments because nobody's buying houses.
And I'd like to see your opinions on that side of the variable.
Thank you, Male.
That's a very good point, Kyle.
And the housing market is one of those sticky factors that goes into the category of everyday needs.
And as people are spending more on housing, that means they're not able to spend as much on discretionary areas.
And it sounds like something that you've been dealing with as well.
It's a complicated problem because you're right, when prices tend to go up on things from a bag of potato chips to even, you know, a sweater, they're rare to come back down.
We are seeing a bit of a reversal with some categories, though.
Consumer electronics, for example, TVs have gotten much cheaper.
They've actually been a deflationary category.
A lot of consumer electronics have gone down in price.
And part of that is because people aren't buying them at the same levels.
So retailers have had to move those prices back down for a lot of that general merchandise that people have been a little bit more resistant to spring for.
That being said, we are still seeing higher prices.
And Target's been making some dramatic cuts.
It put up some weak quarterly earnings reports.
And the way it's trying to deal with that is taking prices down on thousands of items and hoping that people come in because they see milk, bread, diapers, and a lot of other items are cheaper than they used to be.
That being said, I haven't compared those prices head to head with pre-pandemic.
And my suspicion is that they are still higher than 2019.
So the cost of living has gone up across the board.
And that's why you're seeing people make trade-offs.
Melissa, something we've heard from callers earlier this morning is bringing up President-elect Trump's potential tariffs on Canada and the U.S. How are retailers responding to that possibility and ultimately how could it impact consumers?
Tariffs have come up repeatedly on retail earnings calls.
I've spoken to Best Buy's CEO, Corey Berry, about this.
I spoke to Walmart's CFO, John David Rainey, about this.
And across the board, unfortunately, they say, you know, any tariff will increase their costs, which means those costs have to be passed on one way or another.
So Walmart's CFO told me that they may be forced to raise prices on some of those items because there are some items that come from China or other parts of the world that are just very difficult to make in the U.S. Same goes for consumer electronics.
Best Buy was saying that almost every consumer electronic is made outside of the U.S.
And it's very hard to move something like that overnight.
So that may mean that prices go up on a lot of those items people buy.
So one of the challenges they mentioned is across the board, retailers and consumers are very focused on inflation.
They want prices to come back down and tariffs, unfortunately, could move prices in the opposite direction and could be another inflationary factor going forward.
Let's hear from Kitty in Boulder, Colorado.
Good morning, Kitty.
Good morning.
I want to understand why we have to spend so much time buying.
I'm 75 years old and on Social Security.
And I have everything that I need.
And my friends and family have everything that they need.
And everyone tells me.
And everybody is telling everybody, don't give me anything.
Nobody wants anything.
Everybody, of course.
Okay.
I do live in Boulder, Colorado.
And I, however, I live in senior housing.
Thank you, Kitty.
I have a Thanksgiving.
I'm going to vote for you all the time.
However, I'm from West Virginia.
I, you know, I am capitalist.
I, but I can understand why it is we have to buy all the time.
And Kitty, we'll get a response from Melissa.
That's a fair point, Kitty.
I think we're hearing a bit of a backlash that mirrors what you were saying, especially among younger generations.
Gen Z and millennials have shifted towards preferring experiences versus goods in a lot of cases, which is a new challenge for a lot of retailers because they're trying to sell stuff.
And if people don't want things, they want experiences, then they have to not only sell gift cards, but try to sell items that go with those things.
So selling a tent, for example, if someone's going to go camping.
And we are seeing a bit of that dynamic, especially because of this needs versus wants trade-off.
I was speaking to a retail analyst two days ago, and he was telling me one of his predictions about the holiday season this year is he said he thinks a lot of people will be looking for practical gifts.
So things, you know, like socks and things like beauty products that people run out of, shampoo and items that are consumable because you're right.
A lot of people have a lot of stuff, and during a time when they're making trade-offs about how to spend, they want something they'll be able to use versus something that will just collect dust on their shelf or another item of clothing that will just remain in their closet with the tags attached.
So, we are seeing a shift, particularly among those younger shoppers who maybe want to go for a trip instead of getting a bunch of items under the tree.
Derek in Illinois.
Good morning, Derek.
Good morning, U.S. Situation.
It's going to only get worse.
Same people that want you to consume their products is fighting like hell to keep from having a $15 minimum wage an hour.
That's a gross of $28,800.
Just not enough to keep up with raising the prices of anything.
I'm not sure what the poverty line is.
People trying to live off of $17,000 a year.
It don't matter.
I don't buy much of anything because I don't have disposable income like that.
I'm too busy trying to put on the table and a roof over my head.
But I see it only getting worse.
Melissa.
That is a challenge that I've heard from plenty of other shoppers, that they feel like it's really hard to keep up with this cost of living.
And it's a reality that's benefited Walmart in some ways as they've had more of that value focus.
And we've really heard that from the dollar store retailers.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree are two companies that are known for catering to shoppers with less disposable income.
Not only do they have lower prices, they have smaller packaging.
So you can get a smaller bottle of laundry detergent, for example, or a smaller box of cookies or things like that.
And they've really felt pinched because so many of their consumers, about 60% of Dollar General's consumers, make very low incomes, $30,000 or less a year.
So every dollar really counts.
And those are the kind of retailers that notice a change in traffic as they get later in the month and people run out of money to buy things with.
So that's a good example of retailers that have felt that pinch because they cater so much to lower income consumers and a lot of retail workers, restaurant workers that are on a minimum wage.
Next up, we'll hear from Carol in Texas.
Good morning, Carol.
Good morning.
Thank you, Ms. Repco, for being on today.
Thank you, C-SPAN, for taking my call.
I just wanted to bring up two topics.
And one is, you seem to know, Ms. Repco, about a lot of retailers and corporations that own the retailers.
Are they preparing to see about 3%?
That's the minimum number, about 11 million.
Are they preparing to see about 3% of the U.S. population right now be deported?
Because that's what they're talking about coming up: we're going to deport at least 11 million people.
And that's going to be, I could just foresee that these people aren't rich.
They're going to be the shoppers at discount houses and the lower priced retailers.
That's my first point.
Are they preparing?
Are those retailers preparing for this?
And the second thing is there's an avian virus called H5N1 that's a flu virus amongst birds that's now gone from avian species to bovine species.
So they're starting to find the virus in milk.
And you can get, fortunately, vaccines exist for this virus, but the vaccines are being used to keep from having to exterminate the chicken flock and the avian flock in the United States because we lost huge numbers of birds in the houses here in the United States when the bird flu hit.
And even now, if you go look, eggs are one of the most expensive things.
The price has not come down.
In fact, it keeps going up.
And anything made with eggs, you could imagine, is going to be more expensive.
So I wanted to get comment on them two subjects.
I thank you for taking my call.
You're right.
Eggs has been one of those very inflationary categories that has stayed consistently high.
And that's one of the things I've heard a lot of grocers talk about because it's something that shoppers are used to buying.
And they buy milk and they know the prices of those items that are always on their shopping list.
So that's definitely one of the inflationary items that has remained sticky.
Another thing that's remained sticky on the grocery side, even as inflation has cooled, is in those middle aisles.
So a lot of those packaged goods that tend to have more brand recognition, those national brands, think cereals, think cookies, think even sodas, they have stayed higher because those companies, those consumer packaged goods companies, have been resisting taking those prices back down.
So I would say eggs and consumer packaged goods, those middle aisles in the grocery store have been pretty sticky.
I have not heard retailers talk about immigration policy and how those changes might affect them.
They've talked more about tariffs because that seems to be something that may come up sooner.
Trump, President-elect Trump recently tweeted, or he actually posted on Truth Social about how he plans to put those tariffs into place as soon as January, soon after his inauguration.
So that would be one of the near-term challenges that some of retailers are thinking about and preparing for.
We've also heard from companies like Steve Madden.
It's a footwear maker.
They are accelerating moving some of their production and moving more of their imports out of China to anticipate tariffs.
So I would say tariffs have been one of the top themes of a lot of retailers' discussions as they try to anticipate the next administration.
Let's hear from Teen in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Good morning, Teen.
Good morning.
Good morning.
My question is, I have a daughter that lives in Texas.
And I believe what's hurting her the most, she lives in a loaf, one of them loaf apartment, loaf apartments.
She paying $1,500 a month, and they keep going up on her rent.
That's what's going her behind.
We have to sometimes send her money to have her pay the rent because the apartment complex people is going up every three months on their rent.
It seems like something that's illegal.
And if it is, I wish somebody could tell me what to tell her so she can check into it because that's what's keeping her down.
Her mortgage, you know, her rent is going up every three, I say every three months, it'll go back up and they're not going up like $50.
It's a whole hundred dollars.
They're going up all her rent.
Melissa.
Housing is a huge expense for a lot of American families, and that's definitely something we're hearing across the board.
It's remained very inflationary.
And again, in an environment where housing turnover is slow, where mortgage rates are high, that means a lot of people are choosing to rent longer because they're not able to buy or they're waiting to buy until mortgage rates come down.
And that means there's really high demand for rent.
And so landlords are able to increase that rent because there's so much demand.
They may feel like if you leave, they'll find someone else to take that apartment.
And so it does create a challenge for a lot of people, not just your daughter, but a lot of people across the country who, if they're spending more on rent, if they're getting an increase like that, they're going to have to cut back in some other areas.
The hope is with the Federal Reserve bringing down interest rates that mortgage rates will also come down.
And if more people can move into homes again or willing to kind of get off the sidelines and buy, in theory, that should mean there are fewer renters and it should bring rents down.
But it takes time for this to happen.
I've asked Home Depot and Lowe's about that.
That's something they closely watch.
And they weren't willing to tell me when they predict that the housing market may pick up again.
And of course, that ripples through the whole system with not just the real estate market, but the renting market as well.
Maurice in Dallas, Texas.
Good morning, Maurice.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Thank you for having me on the Washington Journal this morning.
Good morning, America.
However, I do hear a lot of speaking to the economy from different sectors, different industry, different things of that nature.
Essentially, we're pretty much discussing CPI, PPI, and if I'm not mistaken, CPE.
But all these things have different factors.
One of the underlying factors I think that continues to happen over the years is actually when we talk about the technology curve.
As we know, that happens 20 to every 40 years.
Every time industries reset, there becomes new market makers.
Someone takes a loss.
Someone's getting their lunch ate during that time.
Everyone has to adjust.
We're all going to take highs and lows during this time.
Industry started to fall back on employment in some place.
We have AI and automation affecting a whole lot of things.
Now, not only that, but if we're speaking to the actual rates from the Fed, that was already spoken a couple of months ago that he wasn't, excuse me, the Fed itself wasn't seeing any decreases to around this time of the year.
I believe that was spoken back in February, March.
But the one thing about it is that if you're seeing lower rates, then we're seeing a dial back somewhere because if we're inflated too high, then other places suffer.
So they were looking for us to dial back, if I'm not mistaken, too much production, jobs, things like that.
I know those things hurt here, but we're in a global economy.
What we do here locally affects nationally, internationally.
Everybody's suffering right now.
We're just trying to find our way into a new world.
We're a new frontier.
We've got a new president.
Markets are going to react and not react to that.
I don't really have any comments as far as the tariffs of not tariffs, but one thing for sure is that business across the waters is just as important as business here.
We need to do some things to bring some of the actual production here at home locally and increase more jobs here as we are dial back.
And that's not in support of or not in support of President Trump or Biden or Kamala.
Not going too politically there, just kind of speaking to the facts that are before us now.
Melissa.
It's a noisy and complicated time.
That is something I hear again and again from retailers.
Even going into the holiday season, there were a lot of dynamics they were facing.
Everything from two major hurricanes that were closing down their stores and causing demand to shift to things like tariffs being proposed.
So there's a lot of different factors that are driving their businesses.
One of the ones you mentioned was artificial intelligence.
And that's something we're hearing about more even on the consumer product side.
Best Buy, one of the reasons why they're anticipating more of a replacement cycle to pick up again in the coming year or coming years, even though they haven't seen it quite yet, is AI-enabled devices.
So, things like phones and laptops having more of those AI features that people might be using for school, for work, for everyday life.
And so, that's changing the labor market.
Like you said, it's changing what kinds of devices people want to have, the devices people use.
And you're right, we live in a very global world, which is what makes the tariffs very complicated.
I spoke to the head of a major footwear association, and he was saying, you know, it's really challenging for footwear companies to navigate this environment.
First of all, he said for the past, since the early 2000s, a lot of companies have been trying to move out of China, not just because of the threat of tariffs coming, which they didn't know about at the time, but also because China, a lot of people in China don't want to work in factories.
And so they were diversifying to other parts of the world where people were still willing to make shoes.
And he said it's really hard to move jobs like making shoes back to the U.S., even if a tariff goes into place.
It's a whole complicated supply chain that you would have to move to another place.
So that's just an example of how we are so global.
I think a lot of us, even as customers, realized how complicated the supply chain is when we were waiting for things like couches to arrive during the pandemic because we saw that a lot of the goods we buy come from miles and miles away, an ocean away.
And so there's a reality that these jobs are hard to move overnight, even if there's a tariff in place that might motivate a company to rethink how they make a good.
Just a few minutes left with our guest, Melissa Rebco.
Up next, Anthony in Sierra Vista, Arizona.
Good morning, Anthony.
Good morning.
Happy holidays.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy New Year.
Supply and demand affects all of us.
Businesses definitely cannot make money if we're not buying.
And if we're not buying, they're going to reduce the price.
I'll use a simple example: if you needed shoes and you went out and bought one pair of shoes and wore them every day, you're probably going to wear them out quicker than if you bought two pairs of shoes, high quality, and alternated them each day.
They would last longer.
So for most of us, we're marketed to television, whatever, to buy, to buy, because it makes us feel good.
And once we understand that is what is taking our financial resources and our mental resources, then we lose.
So I want the author to address, not the author, but your guest to address how when we don't buy, prices go down.
And even when it comes to housing, if we have to live with someone for six months or a year and group together to save money, guess what?
Rent's going to come down.
So please address supply and demand.
Your point about supply and demand is good.
We've seen that on the side of some of the general merchandise that people aren't buying as much.
So I mentioned TVs are an example of this.
And even with appliances, we saw prices go down because people aren't buying kitchen appliances like they were at the height of the pandemic.
And so you're seeing retailers and brands that are forced to cut those prices as they have less demand and they have a lot of supply.
So we have seen that play out in some categories, particularly with consumer electronics.
The challenge with housing is that there is a shortage of supply in the country.
This is something you hear Home Depot and Lowe's talk about repeatedly.
If you talk to almost anyone who's in the real estate business, they will also tell you that.
So, that is the reason why we are seeing this interesting dynamic where mortgage rates are high, people aren't moving, and yet the prices of homes are still very high, too.
And same thing with rents: it's because there's just not enough housing to go around.
There's also very aging inventory of housing in the U.S., and so there is this pressure on people to pay more for rent and for homes because of that housing shortage.
So, that's what's a little different about the supply and dynamic supply and demand dynamic on the housing side versus on consumer electronics and some of those kind of retail categories where we have seen prices go down.
Michael in Lake Havasio City, Arizona.
Good morning, Michael.
Yeah, good morning.
First of all, I want to say great hair you have.
I love the part, and I'm going to make this real quick.
It's common sense oil, okay?
Oil, common sense, the pipeline, shipping and handling, trucking.
You drop diesel prices in half where they belong, and everything in this country will drop.
Small businesses are just devastated by what's happening, and it's all shipping and handling.
That's all I want to say.
Trucking, drop the price of diesel.
Trump knows common sense, the pipeline, all that stuff, foreign natural gas.
Come on, give me a break, everybody.
Hello, America.
We're going to get better.
Trump is back.
That's all I have to say.
Melissa.
Energy is definitely not my specialty.
Retail is something I focus on instead.
But I would say on the consumer side, gas prices have actually been down.
So that has been one silver lining for retailers: as people spend less on gas, which is, of course, an everyday need for a lot of people who are driving.
Our country is definitely a cart-oriented society.
That does mean they have a little bit more money in their pockets.
So, actually, one of the interesting dynamics I've heard some retail analysts talk about is one reason that Walmart may be doing a little bit better than the dollar stores is that historically, dollar stores have been closer to people.
A dollar general might have been a closer drive than a Walmart in rural parts of the country.
But when gas is cheaper, people might be willing to drive further to a Walmart, and gas doesn't factor as much into the decision of where they shop.
So, on the consumer side, at least, I don't know much about the diesel prices and what that means for trucking, but at least on the consumer side, gas prices have remained pretty low, and that is a good thing for Americans' pocketbooks.
One last call for you, Nice in Southfield, Michigan.
Good morning.
Did I say that right, Nicey?
Nici, just think of your niece, honey.
How are you doing this morning?
And happy Village or happy holidays to you all.
I just have a question for her as far as they trying, they want to devalue the dollar, and what problems will that cause for the American consumers?
And if they do devalue the dollar, are they trying to replace it with crypto coins?
Because only Elon Musk made an increase of his crypto coin just the other day.
So, if they devalue the dollar, I just want to know the effect on our economy in America and around the world.
That would be a question better suited for an economist than for me.
It's hard to predict how that might play out.
Cryptocurrency has been a factor, but not really one that's driving a change in consumer buying patterns or in retailers' behavior.
I would say the bigger changes that retailers have been navigating is more about trying to cater to shoppers who are kind of seamlessly shifting between shopping online and in store.
And that's a bigger dynamic that they're trying to face: how do you cater to a shopper who is shopping in many different ways than they used to?
The pandemic definitely accelerated that when people were starting to adopt curbside pickup and expecting faster deliveries.
And so I would say that is the bigger factor for retailers and cryptocurrency.
Melissa Repko is a retail and consumer reporter with CNBC.
You can watch her on CNBC and find her work online at cnbc.com.
Melissa, thank you so much for being with us this morning.
Thanks for having me.
Happy holidays.
Same to you.
Still ahead on Washington Journal this morning.
Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball will join us to discuss changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine and how it could impact the U.S. and its allies.
But first, more of your calls.
During open form, you can start calling in now.
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We'll be right back Sunday on Q and A. Jochen Jack Werfel, author of My Two Lives, talks about surviving Nazi Germany as a half-Jewish member of the Hitler Youth, the steps taken to conceal his identity, and the day his Jewish mother was arrested by the Gestapo.
As we got out of the subway, which was right around the corner from where my mother lived, where we lived with my mother, I saw all kinds of Gestapo and SS cars in front of the building.
Now, this was a large building.
There were many families in there.
And my brother and I decided that better than going in and going there with all these SS and Gestapo people, we waited on the corner and watched it from there.
And we decided to ask our mother as to why these cars were there and what the Gestapo was doing there once they were to leave.
We would go home and ask our mother.
Well, after a while, all of a sudden, to our surprise, it was my mother.
They were bringing out of the building, put her in one of the Gestapo cars, and they took her away.
Jack Werfel with his book, My Two Lives, Sunday night at 8 p.m. Eastern on C-SPAN's QA.
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And at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on our About Books segment, Blurry Edom shares her book, Gather Me, about the books that inspired and shaped her and her book club turned non-profit, well-read black girl.
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Washington Journal continues.
Welcome back for the next 25 minutes.
We are in open form.
You can start calling in now again.
The lines, if you are a Democrats, 202-748-8000.
Republicans, 202-748-8001.
And Independents, 202-748-8002.
We will start with Carol in Clarksville, Tennessee, Line for Democrats.
Good morning, Carol.
Good morning.
I had several things to just speak to, but I'll speak to them one at a time.
About the economy, you know, that's a buzzword that I found out during the elections that people didn't really understand what that meant.
When I asked them to define the economy, they could not define it.
So it was just a buzzword out there that people couldn't speak to.
And we need to have an economics class and a civics class for everybody to have options to go to that to find out more about it as we move from this 2024 election that we have another election in just a few days.
That'll be 2026.
Then, whenever the other thing that I have is we talk about the consumers and the persons that are in charge, if we did not, we, well, I used to work at the university and I always told professors the students were here because that we were there because of the students, not the other way around.
If we didn't have no students, we had no university.
So we had to get people off their high horse about saying me, me, me, when it should have been we, we, we, and that we must continue to work together to make this union a better union.
And the last thing I like to say is I keep a roster on my wall of all the representatives and senators, and I call them periodically, and then I'll tell them that I'm not your constituent, but because you hold the office of senator or representative, you are my representative or my senator because whenever you vote, it affects me as it does everybody else, even though I may not be of their particular party.
So thank you.
That was Carol in Tennessee.
Ernest in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Line for Independence.
Good morning, Ernest.
Good morning.
Hi, Ernest.
Yes, I'm calling about the situation in Lebanon and over there.
I was watching a program, and it showed that Israel was telling people to move out, and then they would demolish their little towns and stuff like that.
And it's not being broadcasted, you know, as a terrible.
I mean, you're telling people to move out from where they're at.
And then the next thing you know, they come back and their homes are blown up.
So, I mean, that's a terrible thing to do and to not be covered.
Thank you.
Robert in Louisiana, Line for Democrats.
Good morning, Robert.
Yeah, I just want to make a statement about the term Black Friday.
A lot of people don't understand what Black Friday means.
It's the day after Thanksgiving when the slave sold off the slave.
So I wish everybody that's black, that have common sense, do not shop on Black Friday.
As Robert in Louisiana, this headline in this morning's Washington Times: Senators call for disaster aid to be priority after destruction in Southeast says that a bipartisan group of senators is pushing for disaster aid to be one of the first issues addressed when Congress gets back from Thanksgiving break, saying the aid budget is running out after two hurricanes struck the southeastern U.S.
In a letter, Senate leadership Tuesday, led by Republican Senators Ted Budd and Tom Tellis of North Carolina, John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, both of Georgia, both Georgia Democrats, and Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, both Democrats of Virginia, called for a quote, robust supplemental appropriations bill.
It goes on to say the Biden administration requested nearly $100 billion for disaster aid relief from Congress earlier this month to help cover the cost of two hurricanes.
The largest portion of the money, roughly $40 billion, would be set aside for FEMA's disaster relief fund.
It would help with debris removal, public infrastructure repair, and financial assistance.
The rest of the money would be for farmers who lost crops or livestock, and for the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency head, Deanne Criswell, warned senators during a hearing last week that the back-to-back hurricanes have depleted the agency's fund.
She said FEMA's disaster relief fund is down to less than $5 billion.
After shelling out nearly $8 billion in assistance for the two hurricanes, she said the agency has had more than 100 disasters that is still funding for recovery.
Back to your calls, Orlando in Social Circle, Georgia, line for Republicans.
Good morning, Orlando.
Good morning.
How are you doing?
Doing well, Orlando.
I would like to see some deregulations.
I would like to see our government stop imposing all these different tariffs and fines on us.
I don't know if they call them tariffs, but the government pretty much prints the money.
So I don't know why they feel they got to take the money back from us after we work for it.
I would like to see lower taxes.
And I would like to see our government really just let us run this country like we do anyway.
We run this country.
They just impose rules and regulations that slow us down, it seems.
So I would like for our country to stop giving money to other countries and let the American people do what we do.
That was Orlando.
Jim in Schenectady, New York, line for Democrats.
Good morning, Jim.
Good morning.
I'd like to talk about the situation with the cost of living.
Hopefully, it'll go down, but I doubt very much it will because in my mind, Trump is the worst.
He's off for himself.
But for the people that are on minimum wage and have large families, they need to have the cost of living go down.
I don't know how you control it.
I really don't.
It's agreed in my mind.
For instance, I worked for GE for 32 years.
They never paid one penny of income tax.
They pay taxes.
They pay sales tax.
They don't pay income tax.
So they're getting away with it a lot.
A lot of these big companies are.
As far as I'm concerned, Trump is good.
He's happy.
You know, he'll deal with it.
He'll, you know, he'll let them get away with it.
But G-stock went from, well, I retired $66 a share down to $563.
And thank goodness.
They got a good CEO.
It's up to $194 now.
So somebody's doing something right, but they got to pay their fresh share of taxes.
That was Jim in New York.
Robin in Alabama, Line for Democrats.
Good morning, Robin.
Good morning.
I have so much to say.
Let me start with the Supreme Court who ruled that Donald Trump is above the law, they ought to be fired.
I mean, that's just totally ridiculous.
And we have a non-law-abiding person that's been elected for president, a felon and a sexual predator.
What is wrong with America?
There's something wrong.
And how can he and the people that he's trying to elect have security clearances when half of them are sexual predators and criminals?
What is he, a mob leader?
And what's wrong with you, America?
You don't want abortion or a woman to have a choice, but yet you hate immigrants?
Those are people, too.
That's all I have to say, ma'am.
I'm so pissed.
That was Robin in Alabama.
Randy in Iron River, Michigan, line for Democrats.
Good morning, Randy.
Good morning, Tammy.
Well, the fix is in, Tammy.
We got all the information in.
My whole life, I've been trying to get this information out.
In the last two years, we've got 9,340 alcohol driving accidents in Michigan, 2,200 all drugs.
2,200 people, all drugs.
In 2023, 8,812 alcohol-related accidents, 2,242 drug accidents.
Now, people, we're going through these 2,200 each year, and we found out that in 2023, we have 800 of them were methamphetamine.
So now we're down to 1,600 people.
We found out that 400 of them were robotus, and that's alcohol, and they put it under the drug category.
We're going to go through and show you exactly how many potheads got in driving accidents in 2022 and 2023.
Should we start changing this around and turn alcohol into the felons and give them the children and take away their houses and land and hand them to the potheads like we did to the drunk, like we did to the potheads all these years, handed them to the drunks?
The fix is in, people.
Look at 19,000 people to 4,000 all drugs.
Now, what's the problem?
That was Randy in Michigan.
Edna in Chicago, Illinois, line for Democrats.
Good morning, Edna.
Good morning, America.
When are the American people going to realize that Donald Trump is not a politician?
He's always been an actor.
And these poor Hispanic people that have voted for him, you'd better start packing because he's going to do what he says he's going to do.
And I really feel sorry for him because a lot of them don't understand what he was saying at his rallies.
He was telling them what he was going to do.
And then they still voted for him.
Pack your suitcases because you're going to be on your way out.
That was Edna in Chicago, Illinois.
This on the front page of this morning's Washington Post.
The headline there for you on your screen, Mexico's president has, quote, excellent talk with Trump, dismisses tariff threat.
The article says that Mexican President Claudia Schibom and President-elect Donald Trump agreed in a phone call that their countries will have a, quote, good relationship.
She said Thursday, and she dismissed his threats to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico exports if it didn't stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the United States.
She said that there will not be a potential tariff war.
She told that to reporters in her daily news conference.
Shibom and Trump have given dramatically different versions of the call Wednesday.
Trump said on his Truth Social platform that Shiba had agreed to, quote, stop migration through Mexico, which would mean effectively closing our southern border immediately.
The article says it prompted a response late Wednesday from Shiba.
Mexico's stance is not to close borders, but to build bridges.
The article goes on to say, both leaders said the conversation was positive.
Trump called it wonderful.
Shibom said, we agree there will be a good relationship, but it is unclear whether the tariff threat has subsided.
Shibom said she didn't broach the subject.
Just a little over 10 minutes left in our open forum segment.
Up next, Tom in Woodbridge, California, line for Republicans.
Good morning, Tom.
Actually, it's Woodbridge, Virginia.
Oh, I apologize.
That's okay.
You know, I don't like to use the term Trump derangement syndrome, but it's just, it's lunacy when you get these people and Republicans that are out there listening, you guys need to call in in the morning to get some balance back on C-SPAN because the Democrats, the liberals don't call in constantly, and they basically don't say much.
They don't have much facts, but they'll just defame everybody.
So we need to have, don't, just because Trump's in doesn't mean you give up the fight.
Look, Donald Trump isn't even in office yet.
He's not even in office yet.
And the president of Mexico is agreeing to cut down the immigration flow and cut down the fentanyl.
In Israel, they've already started peace talks.
Okay?
And I believe, and I believe in Ukraine, and I work in the Department of Defense and the intelligence community in Washington, D.C.
I believe before Trump takes office, Putin and Zielinski are going to sit down and try and work out a deal because they know that he's not going to play games with them.
And he's not going to play games with the illegal immigrants.
And he's not going to play games with the criminal drug cartels.
These are huge title shifts in American power in the world.
And, you know, and it's because of the corruption of the Democrat Party that we got drawn into two major wars in just the last four years.
And you don't take, these Democrats don't take any responsibility for that.
I mean, we're talking about tens of thousands of people's lives, millions of people displaced.
And you guys are all happy about that.
And Trump comes in on a promise to end all that.
And then you guys say he's the crazy one.
You guys say he's Hitler.
He's, you know, a fascist.
He's the guy trying to bring peace and sanity back to the world.
You know, we've got, you know, transgender day in grade school, and you guys are celebrating that.
You celebrate the murder of your own children with abortion.
And we're just trying to say, don't get pregnant.
Don't have to have an unwanted pregnancy.
And don't have an abortion.
Be a responsible human being.
How about that?
And so, look, I'm just, I'm begging everybody out there.
We have got to change.
We have got to change our local electorate over the next four years.
Everybody needs to pour all their time and all their resources in getting these lunatics out of our civil institutions.
We have got to get them out of there.
Anybody promoting rampant abortion, promoting war, promoting the fact that let's just bring everybody in the world into the United States and give them free housing and free food and free education and free health care.
And then we got the people in North Carolina, the people in North Carolina, two hurricanes hit, and they're like, here's a couple of, you know, a couple hundred bucks to hold you over.
They've lost their homes.
They've lost their businesses.
They've lost their pets.
They've lost whole communities.
And you're not talking about that.
The Democrats aren't talking about the suffering that's going on in our own country or the housing crisis that's been created because you invited 20 million illegal immigrants into the country.
You guys have lost your mind.
We have got to get some sanity back in civil discourse.
And you need to start looking.
That was Tom in Virginia.
Stephen in Chatsworth, Illinois, line for independence.
Good morning, Stephen.
The last caller kind of took some of my thunder.
But just like in Chicago, the mayor asked for a $300 million property tax.
Right.
Everybody's complaining about that because they got 50,000 immigrants.
And when you have 60,000 more people buying one banana or a dozen eggs or anything like that, the prices are going to go up.
The prices are going to go up because of the property taxes.
The prices are going to go up because more people are trying to get houses.
Right.
America's not getting the houses.
The immigrants are.
Our taxes are paying for the immigrants.
Right.
They're not working yet.
Right.
They won't work for another two or three years because they're all lower-wage jobs.
And we got to find jobs for them.
They're not doctors.
They're not lawyers.
They're not professionals.
They don't have the computer skills.
They're not bilingual.
Right.
People get your head out of your butt.
Right.
That was Stephen in Illinois.
Nancy, Wake Forest, North Carolina.
Line for Democrats.
Good morning, Nancy.
Yes, hi, how are you?
I'm a Republican.
Sorry.
Stop funding.
This has, I'm sorry.
Stop funding the NIH.
Let's help these animals, please.
Thank you for listening.
And let's help these animals, please.
Stop.
That was Nancy in North Carolina.
Another headline in this morning's USA Today: Trump names special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
It says that President-elect Donald Trump nominated retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg to be his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, a role aimed at finding a resolution to the war, to a war Russia started nearly three years ago, and that Trump previously said he could end in, quote, a day.
The incoming president has expressed deep skepticism about sending Ukraine additional military aid.
The one idea Kellogg has floated would require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia in order to continue receiving aid.
The plan was put forward by Kellogg and Fred Fleets last spring.
Fleets was Kellogg's successor as chief of staff of the National Security Council, where he also worked for Trump.
NATO membership for Ukraine could also be on the table, Kellogg told USA Today in an interview over the summer.
Just a few minutes left.
Thomas in Crockett, Texas, line for Democrats.
Good morning, Thomas.
Yeah, good morning.
I've never seen things go so high in all of my life.
A bottle of FoliPop, $40.
I remember when it was nickel.
I remember when you could get dates for six cents a gallon.
And all this stuff going up.
Same like me.
Nobody's trying to do nothing about it.
And they are running the country with that mess.
I say it is purple.
And they worry about the old Mexican coming across the border, swimming in the river.
He'll swim in the river.
He walks across the bridge.
People I have seen put buoys all down the river stuff to stop on laser water.
They walk across the bridge all day long.
They got a 15-mile checkpoint.
They're supposed to get checked there.
That's all I got to say.
Bye.
Maria in Palmdale, California, line for independence.
Good morning, Maria.
What was that?
Hi, Maria.
Hi.
Yeah, echo all those calls.
I called because there was a Democrat talking about all the Mexicans or Hispanics voting for Republicans and how now they're going to get deported.
And I thought, oh my gosh, he's so stupid.
Non-citizens can't vote.
So obviously the illegal aliens didn't vote, which is our worst nightmare.
So only the illegal aliens are going to get deported.
And the way they're losing their minds is ridiculous because what they've been doing to this country is insane.
Insane.
I'm happy that the people that Trump is nominating are very pro-American and they're going to do something to restore our mind here.
It's been insane.
It's been embarrassing.
I called CISTAR like last year complaining about the border, even though I'm Mexican and I have a green card.
I complain about the border because these elites don't understand that the poor people are the ones that have to share.
They're so stupid.
They don't get it.
They live in a different world.
And I am so glad that so many people in America feel the same way I do because a Democrat's mind was blown.
All of the Mexicans from California is turning on Joe Biden.
I cannot believe these people and what they've done and what they expected us as citizens of America to accept.
You know, the way they did their politics was so shady.
The way they kept everybody in the dark, the way Joe Biden did do interviews, the way Kamala covered the way she's so dumb.
It's just insane.
And I'm so glad we're back to Sanity.
That was Maria in California.
One last call, Linda in St. Louis, Missouri, line for Democrats.
Good morning, Linda.
Good morning.
Thank you for taking my call.
I just want to say that last call of calling Kamala, Dom Kamala is a very intelligent person, and I just can't believe the America that we're living in that you would have a rapist and a felon as a president.
And this man has done nothing.
When they start taking their Medicare and their Medicaid and screwing up their Social Security and taking away these food programs for these lower-income children so that Donald Trump can give his tax breaks to the millionaires, then you look and see how they feel about that.
This man is nothing but a liar.
I have not had any peace since the day that they said that he won.
And now, this is truly what I think that something had to be rich.
It's nowhere in the world that I think our American can be so lopsided that they can sit up here and believe that this man who has this really not a businessman, he's lost every business that he's ever had.
He's also failed bankruptcy.
I'm poor.
I have never filed bankruptcy.
So what has he done that was right?
Thank you for taking my call.
That was Linda.
And our last call for this open forum next on Washington Journal, Arms Control Association Executive Editor or Executive Director Darrell Kimball joins us to discuss changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine and how it could impact the U.S. and allies.
We'll be right back.
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Washington Journal continues.
Joining us now to discuss changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine is Darrell Kimball.
He is the executive director of the Arms Control Association.
Darrell, welcome back to the program.
Good morning.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving.
We will start with a reminder of what the Arms Control Association is and your mission.
Well, we're an organization that's been around for five decades.
We are a research and policy and policy advocacy organization.
We've got members that support our work.
We're devoted to reducing the threats posed by the world's most dangerous weapons, nuclear weapons primarily, chemical weapons, certain kinds of conventional weapons.
And there certainly are more nuclear threats today than we've seen in many years.
And so we've been very busy in part on the topic we're going to talk today.
Let's talk about that.
It was last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using the country's nuclear weapons.
What does the new doctrine look like and what's the goal of the change?
Well, Vladimir previewed this official shift in Russia's nuclear declaratory policy, the conditions under which it might use nuclear weapons, last month prior to the decision by President Biden to authorize Ukraine to use longer-range missiles supplied by the U.S. to strike targets deep in Russia.
And this is part of Putin's efforts to try to influence U.S. and NATO behavior to reduce the amount of assistance that the Western allies have been providing for Ukraine's defense.
So this is an adjustment to Russia's earlier policy.
The last official version of this was issued in 2020.
And I think we need to take it very seriously, but not necessarily literally, because Vladimir Putin, if he's going to make a decision to use nuclear weapons, is not going to parse each of these words.
But the words are meaningful because he's trying to coerce the West.
So what the current doctrine says, the new doctrine says, is that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack against Russia or its ally Belarus.
That has been the policy for a long time.
But he also said that if there is a conventional threat that creates a, quote, critical threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Russia may use nuclear weapons.
And that's a shift from the earlier policy, which said that if there's a conventional attack or nuclear attack that threatens the very existence of the state, Russia may use nuclear weapons.
And so also in this new version of Russia's policy, he listed a catalog of more detailed conventional threats that might trigger nuclear use, including the receipt of reliable information on the massive launch of attack weapons, strategic nuclear weapons, cruise missiles, unmanned missiles,
and even drones crossing the border of the Russian Federation.
So what he's trying to do is he's trying to imply that he may use nuclear weapons in the event that the United States expands its support for Ukraine.
So we need to take this very seriously.
I don't think that this makes it more likely that Russia is actually going to use nuclear weapons because it's not in anyone's interest to use nuclear weapons in a conflict involving nuclear-armed states.
There's no guarantee that that wouldn't result in escalation and all-out nuclear war.
And Putin knows that.
President Biden knows that.
President-elect Trump knows that.
But this does create risks that both sides need to manage.
And these threats are worrisome, and the height of escalation remains higher so long as the war goes on.
And Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the new doctrine nuclear saber rattling.
To your point, this is something that the U.S. needs to pay attention to, what exactly should they be focused on at this point moving forward.
Well, I think one of the things that President Biden has tried to do, and I think President-elect Trump will have to keep this in mind too, is that Putin is trying to limit and intimidate the United States and NATO from providing Ukraine with more weapons and more capable weapons.
And Biden has done a good job of gradually increasing the amount of support to Ukraine so as not to cross Putin's nuclear red lines over the past three years.
If you remember, it was early in the invasion that Putin started using these nuclear threats.
So Biden has been mindful of the real risks, but President Trump is going to have to manage this as the war goes on.
And I think his pledge to try to end the war swiftly is going to be more difficult than it sounds.
We're going to be going through a period of tension, continued tension between the U.S. and Russia well into 2025.
And one of the things the U.S. and the international community needs to do, I think, is to strongly condemn these kinds of threats as inadmissible.
The group of 20 nations in 2022 and 2023 condemn these threats.
That includes countries like China and India, who Russia does listen to.
And pushing back on those threats rhetorically is very important because it will make it harder for Putin to follow through if he is seriously considering nuclear use.
The State Department has also responded to this announcement from the Kremlin.
We want to play this clip of spokesperson Matthew Miller and we'll talk about it on the other side.
I am unfortunately not surprised by the comments the Kremlin has made around the publication of this new revised nuclear doctrine.
Since the beginning of its war of aggression against Ukraine, it has sought to coerce and intimidate both Ukraine and other countries around the world through irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior.
Despite what Russia says, neither the United States nor NATO pose any threat to Russia.
Russia's irresponsible and bellicose rhetoric will not do anything to improve Russia's security.
And I would just add that the change in this policy in itself just highlights Russia's hypocrisy.
Russia is suggesting here that they would use or could use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states if they undertake the same kind of aggression that Russia itself is inflicting upon Ukraine and its people.
So we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, But we will continue to call on Russia to stop bellicose and irresponsible rhetoric.
So Matthew Miller, they're saying that they don't see any reason to change our own posture.
Remind us what that is and when the posture was most recently reviewed.
Well, President Biden conducted what's called the nuclear posture view, a comprehensive review of U.S. nuclear policy.
It was completed in 2022, 2023.
It maintained essentially the long-standing U.S. nuclear weapons use policy, which is that the United States says the fundamental role of the U.S. arsenal is to deter nuclear attacks.
But it also says there is a narrow range of other high-consequence strategic level attacks.
That's jargon for there may be some very limited circumstances under which there are non-nuclear threats that might trigger U.S. nuclear weapons use.
So on a very, very basic level, the U.S. and Russian nuclear use policies are similar in that they do not rule out the first use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear threats.
But Russia is being much more aggressive.
Putin is using these threats much more frequently.
And as I said before, I think it's very smart that Joe Biden has not reciprocated Russia's nuclear threats.
It highlights the irresponsibility of Putin's behavior.
It puts Putin, it isolates Putin if the international community uniformly condemns these types of threats and all types of nuclear threats.
Our guest, Darrell Kimball, he's the executive director of the Arms Control Association.
We are talking about changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
If you have a question or comment for him, you can call in now.
Our lines for the segment are broken down regionally if you are in the eastern or central time zone.
The line, 202-748-8000.
If you are in the mountain or Pacific, it is 202-748-8001.
And wanted to ask you about the, when we are talking about the relationship and the potential use of nuclear weapons, last year, Russia suspended its participation in New START.
It's the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the country.
Remind us what that agreement does and what's happened since then.
Right.
So the United States and Russia for nearly 50 years have been managing their very dangerous nuclear relationship through dialogue and also through these arms control agreements.
And the New START agreement, which was concluded in 2010, it limits both sides' long-range nuclear weapons to no more than 1,550 on their missiles on land and sea and on bombers.
And President Biden and Putin in February of 2021 extended this treaty by five years.
It was about to expire, but it can't be extended again.
So one of the challenges that incoming President Donald Trump is going to have is how do I manage our nuclear relationship with Russia beyond the conflict in Ukraine to make sure that neither one of us begin to increase the number of nuclear weapons that we both have, which is an enormous number, larger than any other nuclear-armed country in the world.
So the treaty can't be extended by a simple signature again.
It would take quite a lot to return to the negotiation table, work out a new nuclear arms control framework, as President Biden suggested two years ago to Putin, but Putin has refused.
So President-elect Trump is going to have to figure this out.
One approach would be to reach a simple political understanding with President Putin and not to exceed the limits of the treaty, the new STAR Treaty, even after it expires.
That could buy time for more complex, more durable negotiation on a new agreement.
And that's probably the best approach because Russia has refused to engage so far in detailed nuclear arms control talks with the U.S. so long as the United States support for Ukraine goes on.
So there is the possibility, if this is not managed well, that the United States and Russia could increase the number of deployed nuclear weapons rather quickly by a technique called uploading warheads on existing missiles and bombers.
They're empty spaces on the submarine and land-based systems.
And the U.S. and Russia each could double the number of deployed nuclear weapons they have if there's not some sort of mutual understanding about restraining such increases.
So this is one of the several difficult nuclear challenges that incoming President Trump is going to have to deal with.
And you mentioned how President Biden has approached the situation.
We do have President-elect Trump coming in for a second term.
What do we do how he may continue to handle these situations once he's back in office?
Well, we don't really have a good idea.
You know, as an organization that's committed to thorough and serious debate about nuclear weapons challenges, we're really disappointed that all throughout the campaign there wasn't much news coverage.
There wasn't much discussion of this.
Some of the other issues that President-elect Trump is going to have to deal with, preventing a nuclear-armed Iran.
And I think there's a looming crisis on the way because the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of, no longer exists.
Iran is closer to being able to produce material for nuclear weapons.
There's some key deadlines coming up at the end of this year.
Iran has threatened that it might pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which commits it not to pursue nuclear weapons, among other things.
North Korea is still there.
And Kim Jong-un, with whom President Trump in his first term met three times, he is not suggesting that he wants to meet again with Donald Trump anytime soon.
And North Korea is building up its nuclear and missile capabilities.
So in addition to the challenges posed by Russia, Iran, North Korea, there's also China, which is slowly building up its smaller but still deadly arsenal.
And going back to the new start problem, the new strategic arms reduction treaty, if the U.S. and Russia don't agree to constrain their arsenals, it's more likely that China is going to accelerate the buildup of its strategic nuclear arsenal.
So just by point of comparison, China has about 500 total nuclear weapons, Russia and the United States about 4,000.
And it is possible that we're going to have a three-way nuclear arms race if President Trump doesn't try to manage the difficult relationship with Russia on nuclear weapons and reach a new understanding to constrain the U.S. and Russian arsenals.
We are talking with Darrell Kimball about changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
First up is Dave in Northport, New York.
Good morning, Dave.
Good morning.
I just, it's difficult sometimes to talk about this because of the, I mean, I know for C-SPAN, I've been watching for a while, and really all we get is like pro-war people and pro-attack Russia.
It's very rare I see any anti-war individuals.
So I just want to reframe the issue a little bit.
And basically, what I want to say is like right now, Russia is steamrolling the Ukrainian troops.
They're having huge problems.
Russia has like a 10-to-one artillery advantage.
Casualties in the war are like 70% from artillery.
So Russia is just crushing the Ukrainians.
And the desperate situation is the West.
It's NATO that is desperate.
And you see that with their continued, we're taking these risks.
Now they have the attackers.
But now, really, the problem is the Tomahawk missiles.
And those are stationed in Poland and Romania, in which those warheads can be switched to be nuclear, you know, have a nuclear thing.
And Putin has said multiple times recently that if you continue to use Western technology, because that can't, a Tommy can't be fired unless the American intelligence or American specialists program the missile.
So we have to, we're taking a direct action in attacking Russia in the West.
We have German tanks, English tanks, American tanks in the cursed region on the land of Russia, killing Russian soldiers.
So we're already very close to a hot war.
And this is what Putin's worried about.
And the elephant in the room right now is that Oreshnik missile, the hypersonic technology.
And so the nuclear doctrine is a last resort.
He's saying, listen, we're going to get in a hot war.
And the worst thing that could, we're both vulnerable to nuclear destruction.
But he said, I don't even have to use nuclear weapons because I have this Orechnik.
I can destroy anything you have, and there's nothing the West can do about it with the hypersonic technology.
And we all witnessed it when you watched the video.
So what do you, how do you, to this person, how do you, what do you, how do you explain this or how do you work around this, this problem with this new missile and this new technology?
Well, the caller is referring to a strike by Russia using an intermediate range, intercontinental, intermediate-range ballistic missile.
It's a variation of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile.
It's nuclear capable.
But what we know about this so far is that it wasn't carrying a significant payload, large warheads.
Putin was trying to demonstrate that he may use ballistic missiles, which are extremely difficult to shoot down with the missile defense systems that Ukraine has, and that he may use these intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the conflict against Ukraine as another means of Russian escalation in this horrible war.
So this is, along with the nuclear doctrine changes, this is another sign that Putin is trying to intimidate and coerce Western behavior.
I mean, the caller is right in saying that Ukraine is having a great deal of difficulty in the battlefield.
The Russians are increasingly using infantry to surge ahead, slowly take over territory that Ukraine had won back two years ago at enormous cost to Russian soldiers.
They're now using North Korean soldiers to augment the Russian forces.
The Ukrainians, long-term, don't have the manpower to deal with this.
President Biden has tried to do what he can while he has time in office to help the Ukrainians on the battlefield.
But this is why it's going to be very difficult for President-elect Trump to bring a quick end to the conflict.
It is partly because Putin sees an advantage right now.
He thinks he's got the leverage.
And he is not necessarily going to agree to an immediate ceasefire that cedes one-third of Ukrainian territory to Russia.
He may be seeking more.
And so President-elect Trump may seek to create more leverage on his side of the negotiating table.
That could lead to escalation, more U.S. military support, and continued risk in the conflict.
So this is not an easy situation.
It's not a simple one to deal with.
And yes, the Ukrainians are in a difficult situation at this point, given the situation on the battlefield and their knowledge that President-elect Trump does not want to maintain the same levels of support that President Biden and NATO have provided.
Ronald in Jericho, New York.
Good morning, Ronald.
Good morning.
I just want to mention that the media has been totally ignoring, and I think this involves your current guest as well.
The role that unfortunately the United States played in causing this war to occur by expanding NATO eastward to Russia and near Russia, that has provoked and caused this war.
I wish you would be emphasizing this much more than you have ever mentioned or emphasized it.
And also, this is crazy.
The talk about use of nuclear weapons, we should go back to the thinking at the time of Reagan when he met Gorbachev to do everything possible to reduce more the possible use of nuclear weapons by reducing and eventually,
hopefully soon, eliminating them, because there's no logical reason whatever to ever use them.
And when I read recently about U.S. plans to upgrade their nuclear arsenals, it just doesn't make any sense at all.
Well, the caller makes a crucially important point, which is that the use of nuclear weapons is crazy.
What we have to remember is that if there were nuclear weapons used in the war in Ukraine or against NATO or against Russia, it could lead to escalation involving hundreds, if not thousands, of nuclear weapons.
There are independent assessments that show that within the first hours of such a conflict, as many as 100 million people would die or be casualties, and many tens, if not hundreds of millions of more, in the days that follow.
So that's why Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in the mid-80s declared that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.
And President Reagan added, and if that's the case, why not eliminate them all?
So I agree with the caller.
The goal of all nuclear armed states is to pursue nuclear disarmament and reduce the salience of nuclear weapons and avoid their use.
But the problem is we are in the situation today that we're in.
There are a lot of different causes and reasons for the current conflict in Ukraine.
I would just note to the caller that my organization, the Arms Patrol Association, in The 1990s was very critical of the proposals to expand NATO because it would likely produce a much more antagonistic relationship with Russia.
Nevertheless, we are where we are.
And it was Vladimir Putin who made the decision to invade illegally Ukraine.
I think he is responsible for this conflict.
But we're all responsible for trying to find a way to end it in a way that does not reward a bully, Vladimir Putin, for invading another country and threatening the use of nuclear weapons.
When we look at President-elect Trump and him coming in, it was in Flint, Michigan in September on the campaign trail that he spoke about the use of nuclear weapons.
We'll play that and get your response on the other side.
To me, we have one really major threat.
That's called nuclear weapons.
We have other countries that are hostile to us.
They don't have to be hostile to us.
I always say if you have a smart president, you'll never have a problem with China, Russia, or any of them, okay?
I got along great with Putin.
I got along great with President Xi.
I got along great with Kim Jong-un of North Korea.
Everybody said, oh, you can't get along with him.
He liked me.
I got along great with him.
And he has a lot of nuclear force.
But you essentially have five countries and you're going to have more.
Whether you like it or not, you're going to have more.
It's the single biggest threat to the world, not only Michigan, to the world.
And you're not going to care so much about making cars if that stuff starts happening.
And we have people that are not good at negotiation.
The war should have never happened.
President Biden, I want to be nice.
He was so nice to me yesterday, but in one way, I sort of wish the call wasn't made because I do feel he's so, so nice.
I'm so sorry about what happened and all that.
But I have to lay it out, we have very important, and the same with Kamala today.
She could not have been nicer.
But the fact is, the fact is we have to have people that are respected by the opponent, by the other side, by other countries that have this.
Even Pakistan has nuclear weapons.
We have countries, India has a lot of nuclear force.
We have countries that have tremendous nuclear power.
And when I hear these people talking about global warming, that's the global warming you have to worry about.
Not that the ocean's going to rise in 400 years, an eighth of an inch, and you'll have more seafront property, right, if that happens.
I said, is that good or bad?
I said, isn't that a good thing?
If I have a little property on the ocean, I have a little bit more property.
I have a little bit more ocean.
But the fact is that it's a tremendous problem.
And we are closer to World War III today than we've ever been.
And the difference is, and I say this a lot, this isn't army tanks going back and forth and shooting at each other.
This is obliteration.
The power of these weapons, and I'm the one that revived it, and I hated to do it.
But, you know, we had stuff that was 48 years old.
They didn't even know if it worked.
We have incredible stuff.
So does Russia.
China has much less, but they're going to catch up over four or five years.
It's the single biggest threat by far to civilization.
And something he talked about there, President-elect Trump, and something you mentioned also is how he could handle the situation.
But he talking about the relationship that he has with some of these world leaders that are nuclear power, that have nuclear capability.
What are you going to be watching for moving into 2025 and to 2029?
Well, first, I'd say it's really important and it's good that President-elect Trump understands the gravity of the responsibility he's going to have as the person in charge of U.S. nuclear weapons policy and engaging with and managing our relationships with other world's other eight other nuclear armed states.
But his relationships with individual leaders can be important, but it's not sufficient.
And one of the things I'm going to be looking for is: you know, who is he putting in charge of certain files?
Who is he putting in charge of the North Korea file?
Who is he putting in charge of nuclear arms control negotiating strategy at the State Department at the National Security Council?
So that will be very important.
That's kind of a second level of appointments that we haven't yet seen.
The other thing that's going to be important is, you know, what does he suggest is the strategy vis-a-vis Russia?
As I said, the United States and Russia are looking at the expiration of the major, the only remaining nuclear arms control agreement.
President Trump and his people have not put forward suggestions about how he's going to deal with that.
The other thing he just mentioned there, he and the previous caller said the enormous cost of modernizing the existing U.S. nuclear arsenal.
So we all have to remember that, I mean, the United States currently has a sizable nuclear force.
We've been in the process for about a decade and a half of recapitalizing that force, replacing the land-based based intercontinental ballistic missiles, the submarines that carry nuclear-armed missiles, the long-range bombers, and the individual warhead systems that are nuclear warhead systems.
The cost is in excess of $756 billion over the next 10 years, and the costs are rising.
And if the United States gets into an unconstrained nuclear arms race with Russia and with China, that cost is going to go up additional hundreds of billions of dollars.
And that's going to compete with other important defense needs, human security needs.
So that is not an arms race we want to get into, if only because it's so enormously costly and because the existing program is already behind schedule and over budget.
We'll hear from Chris in River Forest, Illinois.
Good morning, Chris.
Good morning.
How are you?
We're doing well, Chris.
Good, good.
Yeah.
No, well, first of all, I kind of want to addressing some of the other previous callers.
I want to say it's kind of disappointing to hear someone who's possibly voted for Reagan is kind of buying into this Russian propaganda about how NATO started or is accelerating this conflict in Ukraine, honestly.
I mean, it's like, first of all, it's like, I think even after Finland joined NATO, like there's only 11% shared border between Russia's land border and like all NATO nations.
I mean, if anything, like everything going with all everything going on right now, it's only galvanized the current NATO defense force.
But that's not to ignore my concerns with nuclear proliferation and even just how dire things are in Russia or Ukraine right now.
I think something to keep in mind, too, is just, you know, Russia is possibly going to fight a multinational front and has to maintain this very large nuclear arsenal while also having to deal with a very dire situation with its own economy in the gutter.
So how do you view Russia being able to reconcile these two things?
Well, Russia is facing problems too with respect to its defense forces and defense needs.
I mean, this war has drained their manpower.
It has drained their resources.
As you mentioned, their economy by some independent measures is in difficult straits.
But Putin is clearly determined to see this war out.
I mean, the Ukrainians are desperate to survive and win, but Putin is desperate to prevail, whatever that means in his mind's eye.
So the other thing I would just note, as you said, is that one of the ways in which Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has backfired is it has rallied the NATO countries together.
It has led to the addition of two new countries to the NATO alliance.
That is exactly what Putin did not want.
But the problem we all face, I think we could debate till the CAWs come home what the origins of this war were going back three decades.
But the fact of the matter is the current crisis is one that we need to deal with.
We need to concentrate on.
President Trump, when he comes in, is going to have to work with NATO and with Ukraine to manage the Russian threat and to find a way to end the war in a way that does not reward Putin for his aggression.
And as I said before, he is responsible for the instigation of this conflict with his 2022 invasion.
But we're all going to live with the consequences for years to come.
And we're at a very pivotal moment in this conflict.
Alejandro, Jackson Heights, New York.
Good morning, Alejandro.
Hi, good morning.
I just wanted to call to ask the guest, if there were serious support, like a ramped-up support from NATO and the U.S. to send more high-tech weapons or more offensive weapons to Ukraine, and Ukraine were to change their fortunes in the war and make serious gains on Russia and push deep into Russian territory.
How likely is it that Russia deploys a tactical nuke or a small-scale nuclear weapon, something that has a 20 to 40-mile blast radius to try to not be embarrassed or lose this war?
How likely is that?
And if that were to happen, what do you think would be the NATO response, or more importantly, the American response?
All right, that's a good and extremely difficult question.
I mean, the short answer is that if Russia were to be falling back and losing territory, which is not what the case is at the moment, it is, I would just say, more likely that Putin would consider the employment of short-range so-called tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Not certain, but more likely than today.
And we were in just such a situation in the fall of 2022, if you recall, when the Ukrainians launched a counteroffensive, began to regain territory in the three eastern oblasts that Russia had originally invaded.
At the same time, Russia declared that it might use nuclear weapons if Russian territory were attacked, and they had just declared that these three Ukrainian oblasts were part of Russian territory.
And so at the time, this is September, October 2022, the Biden administration believed that there was a 50-50 chance that Putin might be using tactical nuclear weapons, not against NATO, but against targets, military targets in Ukraine to tilt the balance of the conflict back in Russia's favor.
He, of course, did not do that.
If he had done that, the consequences would have been catastrophic on the ground in Ukraine because tactical nuclear weapons, while smaller in general than long-range strategic nuclear weapons, are still extremely deadly.
I mean, the tactical nuclear weapons in Russia's force that can be launched by shorter-range missiles or fighter bombers, these are city-busting size devices, if you recall Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
If that had happened, what many believe the Biden administration would have done would not have been an immediate response using tactical nuclear weapons itself, but a very strong conventional military response against the sites that launched Russia's nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
And that, I think, would have been a very logical and appropriate response because once the United States replies with nuclear weapons, then it would have been very easy for both sides to escalate, leading to all-out nuclear war.
That's why President Biden said at the time, I don't see any scenario in which tactical nuclear weapons might be used and we don't wind up with nuclear Armageddon.
So on that point, I think President-elect Trump and President Biden see eye to eye.
They understand the risks.
The question is how we can avoid those dangers, reduce the risks, and move forward in a way in which we stabilize our relations with Russia and manage our nuclear relationship going forward much better than we are today.
We have just a few minutes left with our guest, Darrell Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association.
Wanted to let you know that at 10 o'clock, the House will be gaveling in for a brief pro forma.
We'll be going to that when it happens.
But we will go first to Bob in Arkansas.
Good morning, Bob.
Good morning.
I just want to make a comment.
Does your guest know what the Budapest memorandum was?
Yes.
Clinton signed off on it.
If the Ukraine still had the nuclear weapons that they did, Russia would not be screwing with them.
Obama let them take the Crimea when he was in office.
And then, like I've said before, Biden is a very weak president, and he didn't respond.
I know an oil company man, he said that Russia was getting a billion dollars a day from Europe for oil.
That's $365 billion a year.
So actually, at the time he invaded, Europe was funding his invasion.
The problem is, I think Putin wants to put the USSR back into pieces.
And that is his idea.
But he's like Hitler.
That's why Poland supports the Ukraine the way it does, because back in the 30s when Hitler went into Poland and overran them, and they remember that.
I'm old enough to remember that, too.
I'm 87 years old.
The thing is, anybody that uses nuclear weapons, it's got to be out of their mind.
If it proliferates, it'll destroy the whole world.
The future is in space.
The money that we're spending on war should be directed towards space.
And it should be that all of the leaders in the world get together and do that.
Bob, we'll get a response from our guest.
running short on time.
So the caller mentioned the Budapest Memorandum.
This was a 1994 agreement between the U.S., the UK, and Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine once hosted a huge number of Soviet nuclear-armed ballistic missiles.
And when Ukraine became independent, one of the key questions was what happens to these hundreds of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles.
Ukraine did not have the ability to maintain these nuclear-armed missiles.
They didn't have the control over their launch.
The agreement was that these would be sent back to Russia and dismantled according to there was a nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia.
But the memorandum also pledged U.S., U.K., and Russian support for Ukraine and gave it assurances, not guarantees, that they would come to Ukraine's defense if invaded.
Well, Putin violated the Budapest Memorandum, but it was not an agreement that, if it hadn't been reached, would have allowed Ukraine to maintain a nuclear force to deter Russia.
I think Ukraine was never in a position then to maintain nuclear weapons.
And so that's a little bit of the history about that.
But we are in the situation in which we are today, and Russia is occupying one-third of Ukraine.
And so long as the conflict goes on, we're going to see a heightened risk of nuclear weapons use that we've got to find common sense ways to manage, to push back against.
And we will need to, I think, re-establish a high-level dialogue with Russia.
I hope that President-elect Trump can do that to bring a swift and just end to the war and to manage the huge arsenals that the United States and Russia still possess that threaten one another.
Just a minute or so left, but wanted to ask you about a headline that was in the New York Times: Trump advisors call for U.S. nuclear weapon testing.
If he is elected, that article from over the summer.
What is your reaction to a headline like that, and what would be the purpose?
Well, my reaction is great concern because, I mean, we're seeing this headline because President Trump's former National Security Advisor, Robert O'Brien, in an article over the summer, proposed that the United States should resume the explosive testing of nuclear weapons after a quarter century of a moratorium.
Today, there's no state conducting nuclear test explosions, even North Korea.
And the United States has developed a program of non-explosive testing to maintain U.S. nuclear warheads.
But if the United States were to resume nuclear testing and violate a treaty we've signed, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1996, I think we'd see a chain reaction of nuclear tests by other states, North Korea, Russia, China, and that would only enhance their capabilities and help them develop new types of nuclear weapons.
This is not a smart course of action.
And so that kind of headline concerns me.
I hope that's not anywhere near on President Trump's agenda in 2025.
Our guest, Darrell Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association.
You can find him online at armscontrol.org.
That is it for today's Washington Journal.
Congress returns Monday following the Thanksgiving holiday break for a busy month ahead.
The House and Senate are facing a government-funding deadline and must pass additional federal spending legislation by December 20th to avert a shutdown.
Both chambers plan to vote on the White House's request of nearly $100 billion in emergency disaster relief for hurricane victims over the next few weeks.
And Congress will also take out the final version of an annual defense programs and policy bill.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer both spoke about these must-pass bills that their chambers plan to vote on before adjourning for the year.
We have some items we have to go through for the remainder of this year, as you all know.
We have a disaster relief package that's been presented by the Biden administration, their request.
And even before, I want to point out, even before Hurricanes Milton and Helene hit shore, House Republicans ensured that appropriate emergency funds would be provided to FEMA, as we did in that last funding package, as you know.
And now that we're back in session, we're going to continue to provide for the American people with the resources that are desperately needed.
So I saw firsthand, I went to the sites of the devastation.
I went to Florida, where Helene made landfall and looked at the devastation there all the way inland, even to the agricultural areas.
And then I spent a lot of time in West North Carolina, where it looks like a bomb went off in most of those areas there.
So these communities can be rebuilt responsibly, and Congress has a role to play.
We'll be looking at all that.
When the Senate returns after Thanksgiving, senators can expect a very busy few weeks to finish our work before the end of the year.
Both sides must continue working together to keep the government open beyond the December 20th deadline.
Letting the government shut down just before Christmas would be asinine, plain and simple, and nobody wants that to happen.
Well, there may be a few in the other chamber who do, but they're a distinct minority.
We must pass the annual defense authorization bill to provide for our troops and hold the line against America's adversaries abroad.
We have passed the NDAA every year over the last six decades.
With so much going on around the world in the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, in Europe and beyond, passing the NDA is as critical as it's ever been.
We intend to get it done.
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