Our tax dollars supporting these people and will be supporting them for decades if we don't deport them.
Hundreds of billions and more dollars will be spent on them.
And they will keep the borders wide open.
They will not shut them if Camilla gets in.
If you want that, you vote for Camilla.
That's Ali in New York finishing off this hour of calls.
Thanks to those of you who participated.
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We welcome back to the program.
David Wasserman of Cook Political Report.
He serves as their senior editor and elections analyst here to talk about those House and races, the other things connected to campaign 2024.
Hello there.
Hey, it's not as if we lack for material this morning.
What holds your attention most from here on to Tuesday?
So we have a fascinating race at all levels.
The House is especially fascinating, always has been to me, but we've got a situation where Democrats might have a better shot in the House.
Certainly they have a better shot than in the Senate, but their chances in the House have arguably improved a little bit in the last few weeks and month, even as the presidential race has gotten even tighter and we've seen Kamala Harris's lead narrow.
And there are three reasons why Democrats have an opportunity to flip control of the chamber.
Right now, there are 221 Republican seats, 214 Democratic seats.
So Democrats need to pick up a net of four to make Hakeem Jeffries the Speaker rather than Mike Johnson.
And there are a couple of reasons why they have a decent chance to get there.
The first is that the House is being fought on friendlier terrain for Democrats than the Senate or possibly the Electoral College.
You know, we've got 16 Republicans running for reelection in districts that voted for Joe Biden four years ago.
There are only five Democrats running for re-election in districts that voted for Donald Trump.
And most of those Democrats and Trump districts have decent brands heading into Election Day.
Some could be tough to beat.
The 16 Republicans, most of them are in two blue states where Democrats underperformed in the 2022 midterms, California and New York.
The second reason is you've got a decent number of check and balance voters out there who dislike both presidential candidates.
They don't want either party going too far in the next Congress.
And the dynamic in 2016 and 2020 was a lot of these voters, particularly suburban independents and especially women, they didn't like Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, but they were open to voting for a more normal Republican down ballot.
And Republicans actually had pretty good years in those elections.
But this year, voters are very conflicted about their expectations of who's going to win.
And to the extent a lot of those same voters want a check or an insurance policy on Trump going too far, they're opting for a Democrat down ballot.
We're noticing a handful of key races where Democrats are outperforming Harris in polling.
And then the third reason is that House Republicans have been a mess for the last two years.
It took them 15 votes to elect a speaker last January.
It took just eight Republicans to overthrow that speaker, Kevin McCarthy.
And we've seen downstream fundraising consequences of that leadership turmoil.
Democrats have clobbered Republicans at the candidate fundraising level.
It's a disparity unlike anything we've seen in a long time.
And the median Democratic incumbent, as of the beginning of October, in a competitive race, had three times as much money raised as the median Republican challenger, $6.3 million to $2.2 million, whereas the median Democratic challenger had raised just as much money as the median Republican incumbent.
What that means is that a lot of Democrats are going to be controlling the narrative or have controlled it in the final weeks of the campaign.
And so with that in mind, if you want to ask our guests questions about what is expected when it comes to the House, races, Senate races, top of the ticket too, 202-748-8000 for Democrats, 202-748-8001 for Republicans, 202-748-8002 for Independents.
And you can always text us at 202-748-8003.
If that, everything you said boils down to specific races that kind of illustrate what you're just talking about, where would you look to first?
Well, when we add up all the seats that at least lean to Democrats, we get 205 districts.
When we add up all the seats that at least lean towards the Republicans, we get 208 districts.
And then we have these 22 toss-ups in the middle.
Our House editor, Aaron Covey, has an excellent overview of all of this up this morning at cookpolitical.com.
We just moved several race ratings, six in Democrats' favor, two in Republicans' favor.
We see several Republican incumbents, including Anthony D'Esposito on Long Island, Brandon Williams in Syracuse, Don Bacon in Omaha, Nebraska, as slight underdogs for reelection.
There's also a number of other vulnerable Republicans who are polling even at best, people like John Duarte in California, Central Valley, or Laurie Chavez-DeReamer in suburban Portland and Bend, Oregon.
But then the insurance policy for Republicans is open seats.