After becoming global leaders in gun manufacturing in the 16th century, Japan banished all guns from their country for two centuries. How did this happen? And what were the results? Well, even today, the nation of 127 million experiences under 10 gun deaths every year. Derek looks back at this period in history to find out what happens when a society seems to move backward when in reality progress is made. He also looks at the psychology of warfare while noting that as bad as society can become, nothing is inevitable. Show NotesGiving Up the Gun: Japan's Reversion to the Sword, 1543-1879The demographics of gun ownershipAmerica's gun culture - in seven chartsPacky McCormick: OptimismJapan has almost completely eliminated gun deaths — here's howA Terrible Love of War: James HillmanWar is a Force That Gives Us Meaning: Chris HedgesTribe: Sebastian Junger
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Thank you.
Nothing about this is normal.
I read this question constantly on social media, mostly from international listeners of this podcast.
What is going on in America?
Of course, this is a recurring theme, and there's much to celebrate about this country.
We've exported jazz, rock, and hip-hop globally.
Hollywood is one of the most influential mediums on the planet, for better and worse.
But y'all aren't willing to import our strange, erotic fetishizing of guns.
And I don't blame you one bit.
I don't get it either.
But I didn't grow up with guns.
Well, except the BB gun my now-brother-in-law and his friends fired at aluminum cans in our backyard, and which I would occasionally shoot.
It wasn't much different than the silly air pistol on the boardwalk down the shore that made the doll play the piano.
But like most people I know, I don't take issue with guns, because every gun owner I know doesn't worship them the way that a minority of Americans do.
Whether they have them for sport, hunting, collecting, or protection, it's just something in their lives that they do, or own, and that's the extent of it.
I've even gone out shooting skeet with friends because I like challenges, and I like hanging out with my friends.
Then I move on with life.
Here's an extremely basic 101 lesson that I learned while shooting skeet.
If you shoot much of anything, you're going to say, well, duh.
But let this serve as a cautionary tale in the context of today's bonus.
You don't shoot at the clay disc.
You shoot where it's going to be.
To hit the clay, you have to use foresight.
And that's what really worries me.
Where America is going to be in the next few years.
Now don't get me wrong, where we are right now is frightening.
As of this recording, which is a few days before Monday, there have been 267 mass shootings in this country, and we're not even halfway through 2022.
But where we're going?
While nothing is inevitable, and that's actually the focus of today's bonus, this warning from Edward Thorpe, a mathematician and investment guru known for inventing blackjack theory and predicting Bernie Madoff's fraud, it's worth listening to.
As he recently told Tim Ferriss, I don't think we can predict for sure what's going to happen, but we can map out scenarios.
You could have an autocratic country where a minority pretty much rules everything and dictates to everybody else.
You could have a turbulent country where a large part of the country, maybe a majority, is badly upset and just wants to bust everything up and start over somehow.
By nature, humans are reactive, not proactive.
Busting everything up is pretty easy.
Building that back up is another story, one that requires dedication, planning, and intention.
Thorpe might be a mathematics professor, but you really only need basic math to see where this all could lead.
There's an estimated 120 and a half guns per 100 American residents right now.
That's well over double the next country, Yemen, and nearly triple Serbia and Montenegro.
All the rest of the countries are way behind that.
And according to a 2017 Pew poll, only 30% of American adults own a gun.
So that 120.5 per 100 number is pretty skewed.
only 30% of American adults own a gun.
So that 120.5 per 100 number is pretty skewed.
If you divide the 393 million guns in America by the 77.4 million adults who own them, that's over five guns per gun owner average. And while suicides remain the number one cause of gun-related deaths, consider international numbers. 79% are 79% of all homicides in America are by gun.
In Australia, that number is 13%, and in the UK, it's 4%.
and in the UK, it's 4%.
In Japan, well, we'll get there.
In 2016, the gun rights lobby spent over $50 million, while gun control spending was roughly $3 million.
And that has evened out a bit, but the gun rights lobby still well outspends proponents of gun control.
And then we have to factor in what I said earlier.
Most gun owners that I know own a gun or two.
Like Thorpe said, a minority pretty much rules everything, is a possible outcome right now, and they will be armed.
Owning a gun isn't strange.
It's fetishizing them that's abnormal, and neurotic to the point of serious danger.
But Thorpe's prediction, and he knows this as well, is not inevitable.
So this week I'm going to focus on a solution.
I want to be a bit hopeful while also remaining critical.
So I'll turn to a recent newsletter by Paki McCormick, who writes the Not Boring Weekly Substack, which I highly recommend.
And this week he wrote about the power of optimism.
Here's a quote.
I'm far more interested in answering the question, what does the world look like if this goes right, than in analyzing all of the reasons something might not work.
It's how I'm wired.
But wiring is the wrong way to phrase it.
That suggests that some people are wired to be optimistic and others are wired to be pessimistic, and both are equally valid, and that's just the way it is.
That's wrong.
Both are not equally valid.
Optimism is more useful than pessimism.
But pessimism is more pervasive than it has a right to be.
Now, I know that's a tall order for social media, but giving up guns isn't impossible.
In fact, it's exactly what the entire country of Japan did in the 17th century.
And while you might think, that was then, this is now, sure, I hear that.
But history is a wise teacher.
And in my opinion, there are few cultures that I want to look at for precedent than the one that produced the samurai.
