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Nov. 9, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
35:06
Can Kari Lake Come Back?
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Hey everybody enjoy this episode become a member members.charliekirk.com that is members.charliekirk.com email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com and become a member to support this program buckle up everybody here we go Charlie what you've done is incredible here maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk Charlie Kirk's running the White House folks I want to thank Charlie.
He's an incredible guy.
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You know, I was joking with Andrew.
Andrew's with us, yes?
Or just Tyler?
Yeah, I'm right here.
Tyler, Blake.
I was joking with Andrew.
I said, I'm a pretty high-capacity guy.
I am overwhelmed by the incoming right now.
Are you Andrew and Tyler in a similar position?
You're the most high-capacity guy I've ever seen, actually.
I mean, and I'm not just trying to...
Like, Charlie Kirk, during the show...
We'll be managing, like, six to seven different, like, high-capacity tasks, messaging everybody all at the same time.
And, yeah, he finally told me, like, Andrew, like, I need some space this morning, dealing with everything we got going on.
It's too much.
I mean, I have a lot of people reaching out.
And, by the way, really, really great stuff.
That's why I was like, I got to make a call.
Got to make a call.
Got to make a call.
All right, Tyler, speaking of incoming...
Well, I want to recognize on that incoming front because we are managing right now thousands of people still that are out there at Turning Point Action.
We've been blessed to have so many great full-time people, so many great volunteers.
Right now in the state of Arizona as we close out this election and, of course, No better way to close out than Arizona and Maricopa County.
It makes perfect sense, Mountain Time Zone.
I mean, why wouldn't this be the last place to finish county votes?
We now have over 1,500 people who have signed up, trained, and are out curing ballots.
And so what this means is we ran the numbers last night.
Charlie came over to HQ. I think we were there close to midnight again last night.
And I was with the team with Matthew Martinez, who will hopefully make his Charlie Kirk show debut very shortly because we will be going up ahead is the goal.
But just crunching the numbers on what's left in Maricopa County, what's left in the rest of the state of Arizona, and what is the likelihood of how those votes will break.
We did get a drop earlier today, as you mentioned on your show, of 23,000 ballots.
It was a small drop for Maricopa County.
It was a little bit unexpected because they've been doing afternoon drops, and they said that they were going to do a mid-morning drop.
But it broke 58% for Cary Lake, 40% for Ruben Gallego, which, of course, is way above what she needs.
Way above our estimates.
The last two drops were way above anything.
We estimated a 50-50 drop in Maricopa, and she will now exceed that.
Blue Anon was talking about how, and the Blue Anon Twitter, the hopium.
It's so funny because now you're seeing there's a lot of hopium coming out of the left.
And this is a really different perspective from last time, Charlie, with Kerry.
Because last time we saw a lot of goading online.
There was a lot of chatter against the right.
You're not seeing that this time.
Which, you know, you can infer whatever you want from that.
I think everybody's on pins and needles waiting for these returns to come in.
And really anything can happen still.
I think it's still, we talked about this being a 50-50 race for Kerry.
It's going to be very close.
When I say very close, we're talking tens of thousands of votes is what's going to make the difference here, which is a fraction of a percentage point in this election.
Potentially.
But you look at this last time, the recorder's office, you know, typically they can't release results, but they know results before everybody else.
And so when they see these results and they go through and they start adjudicating and curing and going through the curing process and setting ballots aside and before they release things and they have to go through all the processes that they have to do in order to fully count and transmit the results, You start seeing people react and act differently.
And definitely there's a different vibe in the room this time than there was in 2022.
In 2022, you know, there was definitely an emanating, you know, haughtiness that was coming out of the recorder's office.
And the recorder was definitely not a Carrie Lake fan.
He's definitely not a conservative fan.
Stephen Richer is by all, he calls himself a Republican, ran as a Republican, but had the support of all the Democrats in the state.
That's why he lost his primary so handily.
But we're not seeing that, again, emanate from there.
And what we're seeing is this, and this is getting really into the weeds, and we'll talk about this a little bit more later tonight probably, but we have legislative races that are extraordinarily competitive in very competitive districts in North Phoenix and Scottsdale and West Mesa, in particular in the Valley, that these races are the ones that are seemingly having ballots be counted last.
And so I have a theory that they're not only zeroed in on Kerry Lake, but they're also zeroed in on the embarrassment that they're going to suffer if the Democrats basically give up five or six additional House seats and a couple Senate seats that are going to really tell a story here in Arizona of a massive red landslide.
And again, we're not there yet.
We're still a long way away.
No red wave talk.
None of that.
But President Trump does seem to have uplifted a significant amount of these.
Our ballot chasing program uplifted a ton of these people.
And we may be able to squeak by with a bunch of wins at the local level.
That's definitely going to tell a story beyond Cary Lake.
Andrew, do you have some thoughts here?
And just again, Tyler is still more bullish than I am on the Arizona thing, partially because of 2022 vibes.
But I will say this, and this is breaking news.
Not breaking, but it's a vibe shift.
Bill Malusian, who I really respect, but definitely is super careful with this stuff.
Would you agree, Andrew?
Oh, yeah.
Ballot counts in Arizona continue to go in Cary Lake's favor.
Keep an eye on this race.
By the way, I have bookmarked on my Twitter everyone who called Ruben Gallego a victory.
I have it all bookmarked.
And we know who you are, including reporters, by the way, who can't do math.
Including reporters.
Just so we're clear, the remaining math is that Cary Lake needs 52.84% of all remaining Arizona statewide ballots.
Are there 700,000-ish ballots remaining, Tyler?
Is that right?
That's the...
I sent over to you guys the graph here.
Let me send it over again.
We can pull it up if we want to.
This is the remaining ballots by county.
And again, it's less by statewide.
It's less by statewide.
It's more by these different counties.
That's one of the things that's cool about this, Charlie, is, you know, you can see by, if they estimate like 77% of total ballots are in statewide, we're below that figure substantially in, I'm going to say I'm wrong unintentionally, Coach Ice County, in Yama County.
Blake's trying to mispronounce all the county names just specifically to tick off the Indian tribes.
Whereas they're 100% in from Santa Claus County?
Yeah.
So the counties, there's basically a way to look at Arizona, Charlie, and Andrew and Blake, and there's four buckets.
There's four buckets, okay?
There's two buckets in Maricopa County, and then there's the rest of the state.
The two buckets in Maricopa County that are left to count are the early drops.
So the late early drops.
So the late early drops are Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
Those have to be counted pretty much first.
So that 23,000 that got counted today, it was from that bucket.
The second bucket is the drop-offs on Election Day.
Maricopa County announced yesterday at 6 p.m.
while we were streaming its 229,000 ballots.
Those should and typically look a lot like Election Day.
And the build-out of that actually looks a lot like— It's a little less.
A little less.
A little less.
Five points less.
Five points worse.
We're optimistic on that because they probably would have mailed in their ballots more consistently worse.
But let me repeat.
Those typically look a lot like the same as Election Day.
Now, we don't know how those are going to break.
Last time, they broke a little bit less.
The time before that, they broke a little bit more.
You have a scenario, I think, that's playing out this time, which is that people were mentally bringing their ballots because Maricopa County screwed up the election so bad in 2022, that there could very well be a possibility that there's an uncounted, more conservative bend to this drop.
Mainly because people showed up intending to vote in person, but they chose not to vote in person.
We had an undervote in person this time than what we were projecting.
And I believe that there were probably more people that showed up and dropped off their ballots because they got there and they said, you know what, it's fine, I'll just drop it off.
I feel good about it.
The other two buckets that exist within the state, Charlie, Andrew, and Blake, are you have all of the remaining counties and then you have Pima County.
All the other remaining counties are going to break for Cary, and they have so far well over 65%.
Yavapai County is days behind on their scanning because it's two ballots within each ballot.
So it's two pieces of paper.
And it's setting things way behind.
They're worried they're not going to be done by Sunday.
You have Pima County, who traditionally has gone very slow.
It's just Northern Mexico, the University of Northern Mexico, U of A, does not produce the fact...
No, I'm just teasing.
I'm an ASU grad, so I have to tease U of A. But they have 136,000 ballots.
Those ballots also on election day and nearing election day tend to have been more conservative because there's a ton of rural space in Pima County.
So if you look at the map that's on there, Pima County is huge.
And so what happens is that you get a lot of late earlies because people finally drop it in.
They come in or they vote early or emergency.
And then on election day, they drop off their ballots as well.
So, you could have a really ugly Pima County drop.
I think the ugliest it's going to get for Kerry is a minus 10, which would still be okay.
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Blake, you gotta go through this map conspiracy thing.
It's one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
It is such an op by the New York Times.
It is one of the pettiest things I've ever seen.
Yeah, it's so funny.
So we were highlighting this last night.
It went viral, which is the New York Times, one of their best things.
The New York Times, their reporting on election results is great.
And one of the things they did is they have a map where once a county's vote is entirely in, you can bring up a map that's how much did this county change relative to the 2020 election.
And as we've noted, almost everywhere across America, it's a substantial shift to the right.
And so let's put up 332 on screen.
So that was the map that we were talking about yesterday.
Just absolute red juggernaut all over the country because you have counties in Florida and Texas going 10, 15, 20 points to the right.
And then you have, you know, 3 to 5% all across America.
Well, apparently it got so bad.
That the New York Times they're like we have to update the map and so they changed it to 333 put it up on screen they had to shrink the arrows down and the funny thing is it does make it a little more legible because the red wave was so bad it was hard to like you would go to where there's small counties in like Virginia or in Kentucky and it was hard to get on the right one because the arrows were going over each other but it does have the effect of you know making the bloodbath look a little less gruesome for them and I'm sure once
we have the results from Arizona and California where we also are seeing the red wave, we'll probably be trying to recreate our own version of the old map because it's very memorable.
Well, to that point, Blake, I mean California went significantly more Republican.
Blue state America went very much redder.
Charlie, you had that great tweet where you said this is so much different than 2016 because in 2016 Trump won, yes, but in many ways he did worse than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Red America got redder, but blue America got bluer.
Not so in 2024.
The red America got redder again, redder still, but blue America got redder as well.
I mean, it was a complete shellacking electorally for the Democrats up and down the board, up and down different demographic cohorts and across the age groups.
So, you know, Blake, I have to believe that New York Times is doing this for the mental health of their readership, which is not having a good time right now.
The only place where that's not true is Utah and Colorado.
Yep, yep.
Utah has a real problem.
Idaho has a real problem.
Colorado, we've known they've had problems.
I don't think Idaho has a problem.
Idaho is basically Utah.
Whatever happens in Utah will happen in Idaho five years later.
Yeah, so Tyler, should we hire two staff or three in Utah maybe in 2025 just to kind of get our bearings there?
I totally think that the smart thing to do for the movement would be to build a proverbial wall down the Colorado River up Nevada.
Yeah.
I think Greater Idaho is a great idea.
I'm not kidding.
We should really encourage that.
But that whole line from Idaho to Nevada to Arizona, we cannot let liberalism escape across that line because the moment that happens, it changes the map significantly.
If Utah becomes Colorado, you're in big trouble.
It doesn't seem like a lot.
I agree with you.
I agree with you on Utah completely.
And I also think there's some cultural trends within the Mormon Church that you know much more about, but I've seen from afar.
What is that all about, Tyler?
The minute remaining.
What is that all about?
Well, it's like, it's the same thing in Catholicism, that Catholicism kind of went through, is that, you know, when you have an Orthodoxy church that wants to be cool, an Orthodox church that wants to be cool, you start having problems where they start giving up the ghost on social issues, and that changes...
Your entire community.
And when you look at what the goals are of the left, especially in big cities, and so Salt Lake, you look at Salt Lake, you look at Boise, they get people elected there that are carriers of those ideologies.
And those carriers of the ideologies, it expands far beyond the nice, good-feeling, lovey-dovey social issues that seemingly don't matter.
But then start to bleed into your doctrinal issues, both in your Orthodox community, but then it starts changing everything else outside of that.
And that's what we've seen in Salt Lake.
That's what we've seen, obviously, in Americopa County.
We've seen it in...
Las Vegas, we've seen in Clark County.
We see it happening starting in Boise.
And the Idahoans are fighting back, which good for them that they're doing that.
But there's a lot of creep there that happens, and we've got to stay on top of it.
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Tyler, I'm going to take, not issue, I'm just going to slightly disagree with the Idaho piece, just because I can tell you, first-hand experience, I can't even count how many friends in California I've seen move to Idaho, and they were all rock-ribbed conservatives.
So I would say that Idaho, and even Montana to some extent, is getting an influx of R-plus-whatever refugees.
There's a problem that exists in Utah and Idaho.
And again, you have a faltering, social, knee-bending Mormon church right now.
So the LDS church runs a lot of Boise.
Boise is growing up in And not out.
The Democrats are really trying to push that.
So they've had some major battles the last few years and trying to keep out the progressive.
It's funny.
I'll give a shout out to all of our Mormons that are holding the line, the America First Mormons.
They call them progmos.
They call them progressive Mormons that are there.
They're trying to take over the city.
And then in addition to that, you have Coeur d'Alene.
So Coeur d'Alene is, you have the Coeur d'Alene problem like you have the Park City problem in Utah, where as long as you encapsulate it and you keep it within that space and you don't let them out, then you're good.
But if you let that problem grow...
Because a lot of what's happening in Coeur d'Alene is you have a lot of good people are moving in, but then you also have a lot of libs that are moving in from California.
So a lot of the big money guys are moving in and changing things already.
And so the good news for Idaho is that Coeur d'Alene isn't like in the epicenter and the heartbeat of Idaho.
And the conservatives that are up there have done a really good job at managing it and stopping it, unlike Utah.
Utah allowed it in at the wrong time.
And we had some bad governors that were in there that allowed it in.
The current governor is very weak.
Everybody knows that was Spencer Cox and so many others.
And so now it's like, is it too late?
Well, no, it's not too late.
Idaho has shown that, and I agree with you on that, Andrew.
But it's something that you have to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, you start losing places you shouldn't be losing.
I totally agree.
And Utah did the same thing that Texas was doing where it was like, hey, Hewlett Packard, move your HQ from California to Texas.
We're open for business.
And it's like, well, you know, great in theory if you're just thinking Which was the old way of doing business.
Conservatives need to be more savvy than that and say, listen, there's more to life than your GDP bottom line.
And you're bringing in all these libs from California, like 200,000 of them for an HQ. It's one thing if it's Elon Musk's team doing it.
It's a whole other thing if you're just saying, hey, Silicon Valley, come infect our location.
Utah did the same thing.
You hit the nail on the head.
And Arizona did the same thing.
And Nevada did the same thing, too, where you unwittingly.
And this was the old Coke era of type of politics, which was and I call it, you know, having just this alternate where you're again, you have this despotism, this liberal despotism that happens within these states.
So what ends up happening is they move their headquarters to these states.
But guess who doesn't move?
The bosses still don't move from California.
And so they're still reporting.
So they move all these Californians from the Bay Area to these states instead of hiring people that are in those states.
And then they're still reporting to the Californians.
So you basically have just expanded the borders, the policy borders of California into Idaho and Nevada and Utah and Texas and Arizona if you allow it.
The answer is really simple, and you hit the nail on the head, Andrew, is don't let them just move everybody here and keep answering to people in the Bay Area.
Move your headquarters here, but you have to hire people from here, or you have to hire new people.
And by the way, your leadership has to also live here.
You can't let them just keep reporting to people in San Francisco.
Yeah, I totally agree.
Because what happens is these states will give these sweetheart tax deals To companies just to lure them in.
And it's like, no, there's got to be some strings attached.
You have to meet this benchmark, this benchmark, or this benchmark.
And then we'll play ball.
But in general, I think it's been really disastrous across the West as Californians have...
You know, become refugees across the West.
And, you know, as Tucker Carlson says, they're making a lot of these places unlivable, just like they did to California.
Corporatist despotism.
Can't allow it.
Got to knock it off.
Don't show up.
I always tease our Freedom Caucus members.
Don't show up with the gold shovel at the groundbreaking of this place, you know, digging the foundation, laying the foundation to inviting a bunch of liberal hacks to take over our society.
No more.
No more of that.
We have to demand that they hire people that are local.
So, guys, I have a question here.
Was this last election result enough to get Democrats out of Texas?
It's a great conversation.
I never want to get arrogant about it.
That's why I asked it.
Because progress that you make can be undone in future cycles.
So I know we've had a lot of discussion.
We had Rich Barris on.
He was talking about, oh, we can turn New Jersey into a swing state in future cycles.
I feel like my first priority would be secure the win, which is we did get a swing of Hispanic voters, Asian voters.
A lot of different people are voting GOP for the first time.
Now you want to consolidate, try to lock that in as a thing people will consistently do.
And so I don't want to say they're out of Texas.
They might even come back in hard Texas in two years.
I don't know that we have any major races there, maybe just the governor's election.
But They'll want to come back, and you have to really break their spirit over several cycles.
Now, Florida!
Florida, I could see them bailing on for a while.
Those numbers are ghastly there.
They're looking really bad.
But one of the things about it is Florida's GOP is extremely effective.
So you want to get similarly effective GOPs in these other states.
Well, back to Texas.
So Charlie, you know, I've been talking about this.
So there is an epicenter, there's a nucleus for Democrat-focused in Texas, and it's Harris County, Texas.
It's Houston.
So that is the heartbeat for the Bushes as well.
Harris County.
Harris County, otherwise known as Bush-like County.
It's funny that the Bushes all voted for Kamala Harris because they're from Harris County.
So Harris County is the place that they've focused in on, zeroed in on.
If you can make significant gains in Houston, you can flip the entire state of Texas.
So they're not going to be trying to do too much.
And in fact, we've seen Dallas move to the right, especially with the conversion.
Fort Worth, especially.
Yeah, there's been a lot of really great white pill stuff happening in Dallas.
And again, just continuing on the conversation that Andrew just brought up, you have a lot of conservatives actually moving into Dallas, coming from other places, jobs, everything else.
It's kind of like Phoenix, where it's so big, it's going this way and not this way.
It's harder for them.
But Houston's not the same.
Houston, they can go this way.
And that's the real problem for us.
So it's something to keep an eye on, Charlie, I think.
I think that the Republicans would be stupid not to get ahead of this.
We have to staff up.
We have to defend Texas.
And the place to do that is Houston.
And that starts with getting people elected at the very local level, managing elections, doing things that are going to save that city.
Otherwise, Texas could go.
Once Texas goes, the entire map changes.
So you got to do it.
But do you think we scared him away?
Do you think that we, I mean, shushed him away?
Ted Cruz, double-digit win.
Trump, nearly a 16%.
What was Trump's final margin?
I want to say it was about 14 points.
By the way, this has been the apple of their eye.
Trump, 14 points.
I mean, does that finally...
So if you're the Democrats here, do you get spooked by the Sun Belt?
Yes.
I mean, you got Arizona that's...
I just want to brag on Arizona.
And Tyler, you know this.
Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016.
He's on pace for a seven or eight point victory.
Nearly double that of 2016.
Nine.
Nearly nine.
Double.
Nine.
More than double.
Okay.
We could go nine.
Give me nine.
A note of caution.
If you look at, obviously, us doing way better with Hispanics is the big narrative of this election.
If you look at the polling, they said economic issues were the number one thing for them.
Inflation.
Even the border is kind of an economic issue for a lot of them because it's, you know, competitive.
You know, they're much more affected by the lower wages that come from having more competition from illegal workers and so on.
So for them, the economy is important.
So one of the biggest things is we need to deliver on working class economic issues.
If we do not, these are not people who are going to be ride or die with us for cultural topics.
These are people.
Can be won back if we fail on the economy and if Democrats fix up their agenda to have a better economic message, they'll be vulnerable to going back.
I agree, Blake.
Remember, Blake, George H. or George W. Bush won 40 percent of them or maybe even 44 percent.
I forget in 2004.
Yep.
And we lost them for another bunch of cycles.
Yeah, because the economy was destroyed, and we took the blame for it.
So we have to be good stewards of...
Our country and its prosperity.
And if we're able to deliver that, I think in four years you could have Vance or anyone else running on a very compelling message that the Republican platform delivered for working class Americans.
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So guys, just let's recap the week.
Wow.
We won!
We won and we did so by more than I think any of us honestly expected.
We could show the cameras.
We had our air mattresses ready to go.
We had enough food to last for an entire winter.
We were ready for this election to be a knife fight for days on end to claw out the winning votes either way.
And instead, it was clear we were going to win by 10pm.
Charlie, I want to give the Turning Point effort a shout.
Not only did we, as it stands now, chase more ballots than the margin of victory in Arizona.
We chased more ballots than the margin of victory in Wisconsin.
We had historic gains with young voters.
And I'm just going to rattle off the talking points.
We won young men by 10 points.
We won young white voters for the first time in a generation, outright.
We were supposed to lose women by 30 points.
We only lost them by 10, young women.
We won young voters in Michigan.
Every single campus that Turning Point visited, we saw gains for the Republican ticket up and down the ballot.
Every single one.
From East Carolina State, I was going through each campus, Charlie, to Center County in Pennsylvania, to ASU, U of A. Across the board, a massive historic A realignment.
As James Woods shouted you out on Twitter, Charlie, we saw the woke mind virus, the strangle that it had on young people, get broke.
There was over 2.1 billion views of your campus debates on TikTok and YouTube and Instagram and X. What happened will be written about for generations, and I'm so honored to have played a small part in what this team accomplished.
And Tyler, as the architect...
Huge part.
You guys all played it.
It's a team victory.
Well, Tyler is...
Take a victory lap, Tyler.
Well, let me just say this.
Let me rattle off a few different things.
Let me just say this one real quick.
Tyler, you were the architect.
You were the architect of the chase, and you deserve a ton of kudos, my friend.
Well, I'll rattle off a couple of different things.
Our Chase the Vote program contacted every single person, almost 400,000 people in Arizona.
We had over 140,000 people that we built relationships ahead of the election.
We had over a massive 28% turnout in the primary.
We're going to have almost 60% turnout of low propensity voters that we chased.
It's maybe larger than that.
We registered over 25,000 people just in Arizona alone, tens of thousands across the country that shifted.
We're waiting for data in Arizona, but our total turnout per county is 10% greater with new voters.
And to give credit to Charlie, I sent you guys this this morning.
Right now, evangelicals are outpacing the average in Arizona by 10% in turnout for Republicans.
Our commit 100 program contacted three times over our entire universe.
We recruited more than 2,000 volunteers from every state except for Vermont to fill 10 hotels, to contact over 200,000 unique additional voters successfully, and we left behind messages and called and texted another 350,000 voters.
We knocked doors, sent tens of thousands of postcards, 200,000 text messages in the last week that were personalized text messages from individuals through our application that we developed.
On text messages, we had 5 million messages just in Arizona alone.
Millions from Brett Favre and other people in Wisconsin.
That was thanks to Charlie.
Diamondbacks legend Luis Gonzalez.
Coyotes legend Jeremy Roenick.
Charlie, Donald Trump Jr.
that we sent out.
We had Vivek at things.
Brett Favre.
Antonio Brown.
Antonio Brown that we had.
Le'Veon Bell that was at our event.
Our chase to vote operations were waiting final data, but we had chased more than 170,000 voters by Saturday of last week.
It will likely break 200,000 voters.
210,000 that we're tracking right now, just in Arizona alone.
And that's just in addition to the dozens of billboards that we put up.
We had millions of views and over-the-top content that we did for Kerry and President Trump.
It's wild.
Got to run.
Unbelievable.
All right, everybody.
What a week.
A week we'll never forget.
And it was just the start.
God bless you guys.
Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
God bless.
Talk to you soon.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
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