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Nov. 4, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show

01:59:29

THOUGHTCRIME: The Pre-Election Special

As the election rapidly approaches Charlie, Jack, Blake, Tyler, and Andrew discuss the hottest topics of the last days, including: -Should conservatives worry about a surprising new poll out of Iowa? -What are the most likely Electoral College maps? -Who has the momentum going into election-day voting? -Will Peanut the Squirrel receive justice?Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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	Hey everybody enjoy this episode become a member members.charliekirk.com that is members.charliekirk.com email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com and become a member to support this program buckle up everybody here we go Charlie what you've done is incredible here maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk Charlie Kirk's running the White House folks I want to thank Charlie.
	He's an incredible guy.
	His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
	That's why we are here.
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	Wow, everybody.
	We are hours away.
	We have been teasing this.
	We have been thinking about this.
	We have been praying about this.
	We have been working towards this.
	This is the last thought crime before Judgment Day.
	This is going to be a really important episode.
	Honored to be with all of you guys.
	It is Sunday, November 3rd, 8 p.m.
	Eastern.
	President Donald Trump has just taken the stage at a rally.
	Can we guys get picture and picture of that throughout this episode, guys?
	That would be great.
	All right, here we go.
	Joining us now, I believe we have Blake, we have Tyler, and I think we have Andrew.
	Yeah, we do.
	Great.
	Blake and Tyler are in person.
	And look, there's so much to cover here.
	I think right out of the gate, let's cover the Iowa news, guys.
	I think that's very important.
	It kind of took Twitter ablaze.
	It certainly has had us thinking about what might be unburdened by what has been and considering very well what the heck is going on with this poll.
	Now, by background, I was waiting for this poll for a couple weeks, and I know it's always the Saturday before the election.
	In 2020, she came up with a poll that broke the internet that people said she was wrong and she was right.
	She said that Trump was going to Iowa by 7.
	She detected that Trump was way hotter in Iowa than people thought.
	And turns out she was right.
	She kind of detected the 2020 surge regionally when all the other pollsters were missing that.
	This woman is named Anna Seltzer.
	I like Seltzer Water out of Iowa.
	She has had some polling misses before, but it's been nearly 20 years before that.
	She's considered to be very, very accurate.
	And she broke the internet yesterday when she came up with a poll that said Kamala Harris is up three in Iowa.
	Now, mind you, there's a lot of problems with this poll that we can go through.
	There's some parts that don't make sense, such as we're doing better with under 35 voters than baby boomers.
	I find that very hard to believe.
	But however, we have to take this seriously because it is not as much that we're worried we're going to lose Iowa because literally just moments before that, Emerson came out of a poll that showed Trump up 10 in Iowa.
	So somebody's totally wrong.
	And even if you take the average, it's Trump up five or up six.
	The issue that is worth discussing here, and I'll throw it over to Blake, is the extrapolation.
	Is, did she detect something, as she has been known to do in polling past, that other pollsters are missing that is going to be a surprise subterranean element of this election?
	Or is this just a major partisan miss from somebody who is a very well-respected pollster?
	Blake, take it from there.
	Hey Charlie, thanks.
	So yeah, just again to set the stage a little bit, this is a poll only in Iowa.
	Ann Seltzer is her name.
	She is an Iowa expert.
	Obviously we have a lot of polling in Iowa.
	It's a good state to specialize in because it's so important during the presidential primary process.
	So she's an expert on Iowa.
	And big picture, one of the reasons people are so interested in this poll Is that there's been a discussion online among kind of the expert political class.
	It's a word called herding.
	Nate Silver, the election forecaster, he's been talking a lot about this.
	Other people have as well.
	What he's been saying is, if you look at the polls we've been getting in all the swing states and nationally, they tend to be really, really samey.
	We're getting one poll after another.
	That's Trump up one, Tide Race, Kamala up one.
	People are, you very rarely see polls that get away from this.
	And what Silver and others have pointed out is this doesn't make sense, actually.
	Even if the race was perfectly tied in all the swing states, you would just randomly, from random sampling, you would get polls that show occasionally Trump is up 5, Kamala is up 6.
	You get these outlier polls just from random chance.
	And we haven't been getting this.
	And so people have been complaining about this.
	And what they're saying is they're probably leaving out some outlier ones or the pollsters are massaging their data because they're afraid of getting a result that's too different from everyone else's.
	Because if it's way different, yeah, herding, exactly.
	And so, you know, they're sticking to the herd.
	Now, notably, Selzer is known to be a good pollster, and she's known to not do the hurting stuff.
	She is not afraid at all to publish a result that is well outside what other people are predicting.
	As Charlie said, in 2020, I want to recite some of the polls that were on the Real Clear Politics average for 2020 in Iowa.
	Quinnipiac.
	This is all in the last week.
	Quinnipiac had Trump up one.
	Emerson had Trump up one.
	Insider Advantage had Trump up two.
	PPP had Biden up one.
	And then the big outlier here is Selzer's poll for the Des Moines Register had Trump up seven.
	In the end, Trump won by eight.
	So she is, and there was no one even close to that.
	I'm looking at the other polls in that sequence.
	There was only one other poll in that entire cycle that had Trump up seven or more, and it was also by the Des Moines Register.
	It was another Selzer poll.
	She had him up ten.
	So everyone else had that race wrong, and she had it right.
	So...
	The implications, if this poll were accurate, is it's not just that whether Iowa's in play or not.
	Iowa's six electoral votes, it actually makes surprisingly little difference to the electoral college math if we lose Iowa.
	You're totally right.
	Hilariously, we could win North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
	We will win Ohio.
	It's super Trump country.
	Florida, and we still win because it's actually not determinative if Trump runs the trio.
	Exactly.
	On the margins, it's the same size as Nevada, so it can have a similar impact to that, where it could offset if we were to win Nevada.
	The reason people are paying attention to this, though, is what could this signal?
	Well, one of the trends that's seen in her data is the big thing that's driving it, that's making it so that Kamala is getting the shocking result, is it's not...
	Younger voters, actually.
	It's senior voters.
	It's people over 65.
	Trump is winning with those who are 35 to 59, I believe, or 54.
	The middle age bracket.
	Trump's winning that group.
	And he's losing young voters under 35, but only by two.
	Not a lot.
	He's losing voters over 65 by more than he's losing young people by.
	And in particular, he's losing older women by a ton, like by 30 points.
	Now, do I think Trump is going to lose women over 65 by 30 points in Iowa?
	No.
	But if that result represents accurate polling, it could mean he's going to maybe lose them by a little bit or lose them by five, something like that.
	And if that's the case, what you'd be thinking is, does this translate to other states in the Midwest that are like Iowa?
	Just over the Mississippi River, you have Wisconsin.
	You have Michigan a little further away.
	You have a lot of small towns, kind of like small town Iowa, in those places.
	And is it going to turn out...
	That all the pollsters were missing this realignment of seniors away from Donald Trump.
	Why would they do that?
	Maybe they're still upset about January 6th.
	I think that's probably the most standout one.
	Maybe they're upset about abortion laws.
	I got to interject here.
	Sorry, Blake.
	Then I'll throw it to Andrew.
	There is some rubbish in this poll, guys.
	I don't know if this was Democrats or even voters in general, but a very high percentage said that threat to democracy was their number one issue.
	Nowhere in any polling across the country is seeing that.
	Number two, they did not use a great sample size of Iowa's voter registration numbers.
	It's an R plus 10 state now.
	So that wasn't totally great.
	And number three, which I think is incredibly important to mention and to reiterate, which is when you dive into the data, I don't think there's a world where we win under 35 voters, like Blake said, and we lose boomers.
	I just like that's not correct.
	And the national polling right now from 10 different polling agencies are saying that it's very close.
	Trump up one, Trump up two, Trump up three.
	In order for you to get a Kamala plus three in Iowa, you would have to have like Kamala plus eight nationally.
	That would have to, those two things don't exist in bubbles.
	Andrew, can you educate the audience as to why we're starting our precious Sunday night on this poll?
	It's a little bit of a humble element because we can't go in too high on our own supply because to her credit, she has called trends before that everybody else thought was nuts and insane.
	That doesn't mean she's going to be right this time, but she has earned the right up to this moment to be taken seriously.
	Yeah, I mean, she's considered the A plus pollster, Charlie, of all of Iowa.
	And to Blake's earlier point, Iowa plays an oversized role in the presidential primaries.
	Therefore, she's gotten a ton of attention in years past.
	So everybody's looking to her, right?
	But I want to bring up something that Ryan James Gerduski actually posted.
	And he actually went into the crosstabs.
	We're going to have him on the Charlie Kirk Show tomorrow to discuss this.
	But he dove deep into this poll and broke it down piece by piece.
	And that's image 11, please.
	So he took basically the crosstabs that Ann Seltzer is looking at and compared them to the 2020 exit poll.
	Now, when we go over these numbers, let me just explain one thing to you.
	What has shifted in Iowa?
	So they've added over 130,000 Republicans to the voter rolls.
	They've a net gain of 130,000 plus voters.
	We're winning early voting for one of the first times in recent memory, if ever.
	And then yet still somehow this comes up.
	So overall, again, this is Seltzer to 2020.
	Seltzer has an overall sample size of a D plus three electorate.
	That's insane.
	Let me just tell you, that's insane when the state is probably something like R8, R10, okay?
	So first there, and that's what the exit polls in 2020 said, R8. She's got senior women, D plus 35, when in just four years ago, the exit polls had it D plus 6 for senior women.
	Senior men, she only has it R plus 2.
	Again, four years ago, senior men were R plus 32.
	So what you have to believe in this, and it goes on, by the way.
	So you've got the college, no college, men, women, all that stuff.
	What you would have to believe for this poll to be true is that every other poll in the universe, and I mean that in sort of a polling lingo way, but every other poll out nationally and locally is wrong.
	So you have to believe that.
	What she could be We have to be looking at it.
	No way do I think Trump's losing Iowa.
	I genuinely don't believe we have to look in that.
	Because if there was even a chance, by the way, and I think you tweeted this, Charlie, Tim Walz would be campaigning in Iowa.
	Because they often say...
	Because he's neighbored...
	Again, if they detected a pickup of six electoral votes, they would have snuffed this thing out a long time ago.
	And they would have spent...
	By the way, there's the most well-funded presidential campaign in history.
	And Tim Walz is from there, right?
	So...
	Why wouldn't they have deployed him to do nothing?
	I gotta interrupt.
	I did the research.
	They did not send Tim Walz to a coffee shop in Dubuque or a OTR in Davenport.
	I mean, the guy has not gotten near the state.
	So they obviously pulled it.
	And just so we're clear, the Trump campaign did a pulse check on this like seven or eight weeks ago, and it showed Trump up eight.
	They're like, okay, we're good.
	I mean, meaning like they did their job.
	They did kind of a pulse check.
	As they should, eight weeks ago, making sure they weren't high on their own supply.
	They did a pulse check in Ohio, you know what I mean?
	And then they just stopped polling it.
	But please continue, Andrew.
	No, so, I mean, to your point though, Charlie, the two things, if we're saying what could Seltzer be seeing in the numbers that we are not seeing, like a hidden element in the polling, there's two elements.
	Seniors, we've pointed that out on our own show, on our daily show, Charlie.
	That there have been a bit of softness with boomers.
	And we called that out.
	We got a bunch of hate mail from our listeners.
	The second thing is, are we looking for a hidden female vote?
	And, you know, we played this ad on the show last week where women are being encouraged to lie to their husbands because of abortion or whatever.
	But none of that actually makes perfect sense to me.
	And I'll explain why.
	Because constantly, top three issues.
	Inflation.
	One, immigration.
	And then third, abortion.
	They're saying in this poll that it's actually this fate of democracy or something as the top issue for these women.
	So none of this makes a whole lot of sense to me other than, you know, she might have just been wrong.
	Maybe she's seeing a little softness in senior women.
	Okay, maybe I'd buy that.
	But otherwise, I'm asking myself, why is this poll going out?
	This feels pure suppression Tyler, what's your thoughts on this?
	This is largely an information warfare play.
	What's your thought on this, Tyler?
	Yeah, I think there's two things that we didn't succinctly cover, but everybody needs to hear over and over again.
	Polls, and particularly close polls, are not going to matter if turnout is not predicted correctly as well.
	So right now, I think part of the haywire effect that we're going to be seeing, not only with polling, and with also the predictors, the great predictors that we have so many of on Twitter, on X, That people are not correctly seeing and taking in the amount of early votes that Republicans are turning out, and then they're not appropriately applying those to some of their polling tactics.
	And I'm not saying this about this specific poll, but there is a real issue that exists out there on the polling front with people polling people who have not yet voted when a big chunk of the electorate has voted in certain states.
	There's a huge issue with polling people who have voted that still yet remain to vote on Election Day and the differences that exist between those types of voters.
	And so we're just entering a new era, especially amongst Republicans, where Republicans don't trust anyone.
	We know this.
	They don't trust the TV.
	They're not going to trust random people who sample and call them on the phone anymore, especially without landlines necessarily.
	Now they're getting 90,000 text messages per day.
	They're not just randomly answering the phone and talking for 45 minutes with a pollster.
	We just know that's not happening.
	And then the second part is that now how these pollsters are going about their work, even people who have been around for a really long time doing this, they're not totally up to snuff with how they're polling people who have already voted, cast votes, and then the people who have yet to vote.
	I've got to interject really quick.
	Finish that thought.
	There's something just breaking.
	Just keep going.
	I was just going to say this is one thing.
	Our job is one job, which is that we just got to turn out more people, make sure our turnout numbers are high, prove pollsters wrong, because what we would like to see is less reliance on polling and more reliance on data analysis as early votes come in.
	And then properly and adequately talking with our own base to make sure we turn out more votes, not only during the early voting period, but on Election Day.
	All right.
	Sorry to interrupt.
	But anyway, this is interesting.
	And Blake knows this.
	And it's actually a fun thought crime element.
	I love these student polls, meaning these student elections where they have high schoolers vote on who they think should become president.
	Now, the one in Maine, can you pull that up, Blake, is awfully instructive.
	So you guys will love this.
	And maybe Seltzer's on to this.
	Listen, breaking out of Iowa, Trump posts new record in the Iowa Youth Straw Poll, handily demolishing his 2016 and 2020 performance.
	Now, why do I like the student poll?
	Because they're obviously mirroring something they're hearing at home, right?
	They're mirroring something they're hearing at home.
	So Donald Trump wins the Iowa Youth Straw Poll by 30 points.
	He received 61.6% of the vote.
	Kamala has dipped into the 20s.
	In 2016, he won it by 6 points.
	In 2020, he won it by 18 points.
	In 2024, he's won it by 30 points.
	So Seltzer is saying that, you know, the young people are going his way, but I mean, I can't imagine that these young people are defecting that far from their parents.
	Blake, I know it sounds silly, but I think, Blake, you're somewhat sympathetic that these mock student elections actually can have an element of truth of some cultural temperature, right?
	That usually the Democrats clobber with these, but we're actually winning these student votes across the country.
	And talk to the audience about the main one, Blake.
	Yeah, so the Maine thing, the Maine also has a student vote, and a good number of people vote in it, too.
	Maine's not a very big state.
	I think it's got maybe, what, 1.1, 1.2 million people, something like that.
	And more than 20,000 people voted in this poll, so I'm not sure.
	It says over 115 schools submitted results.
	I don't know if it's only high schoolers, if it includes middle schoolers.
	Whatever.
	But they have these results.
	And in their 2024 student mock election, Donald Trump got 11,000 votes for 52%.
	Kamala got less than 41%.
	And then you had about 2% for the Libertarians, for Jill Stein, and for Cornel West.
	And notably, in 2020, I believe Joe Biden narrowly won by about two points.
	And in 2016, Trump won, but by less than he just won in this mock election.
	Yeah, are these kids even able to vote?
	No, but I feel like it's a very good way to capture a genuine vibe shift if it's happening at the grassroots level.
	I think if we're going to be winning on Tuesday, a big reason we're going to see it is it'll just be...
	Absolutely mind-boggling pro-Trump turnout in rural areas, and I wouldn't be shocked if it was those rural areas that would get more invested in votes like this.
	So I think it's a good sign.
	I also am still thinking about the Iowa poll, because I know people are freaking out about it, and I don't want people to freak out too much about it.
	So one thing to point out about it is the way Selzer does her polling is she just does a likely voter screen.
	So that is, you want to poll people who are actually likely to vote in the race.
	You don't want to poll people who don't bother voting because they don't count.
	So her screen was super basic.
	She just says, have you voted already?
	If you haven't voted, will you definitely vote on Tuesday?
	And those are the only people she polled.
	If you said, I will probably vote, I'm thinking, I'm a maybe on voting, you got washed out on this.
	Now, admittedly...
	Maybe that is worthwhile.
	Maybe there's a very low share of the people who are maybes will actually end up voting.
	But poll after poll has shown that Trump is very strong with the maybe voters in this cycle.
	And so that's one reason to maybe be wary of this.
	There's also, some people are flagging, there's like a very high response disparity, maybe between liberals and conservatives on this.
	They've all been whipped up.
	If you kind of imagine TV watching elderly liberals, they've all been whipped up about Trump-Hitler stuff.
	The number one issue in the poll is defending democracy among the Harris voters.
	And so it could be maybe all the Hitler stuff basically supercharged a certain subset of liberal voters to definitely respond to polls and stand out a little bit more in the race.
	Another thing, and I want to flag this as something that came to mind for me.
	Iowa has a rather strict abortion law that took effect on August 1st.
	So if you were going to have some sort of Dobbs abortion effect to help the Democrats in this election, they might have by far the biggest one.
	A brand new abortion law that took effect literally after Harris entered the race.
	And so it could be maybe that has a big impact in Iowa.
	And you won't see as big of an impact in states like Arizona or Wisconsin where you don't have a strict ban that is currently in place and fresh on people's minds.
	Yeah.
	I mean, again, just to turn back, our focus has to be just turnout, turnout, turnout.
	And this is one of the things that we don't talk about enough with polls, too.
	And again, not getting too deeply because I haven't investigated yet.
	Because I just didn't take this.
	I've been so focused on Arizona.
	I haven't taken this poll very seriously.
	And our people on the ground in Iowa are saying that this is not true at all.
	No, but it's the extrapolation, though.
	Tyler, no, I want to just be clear.
	It's that what if she's detecting...
	An ingredient.
	Well, we've known this, though.
	So we've talked about the senior vote issue for a long time.
	We were on here talking about this, what, like a year ago, probably on Thoughtcrime.
	We were talking about how if there's one way for for and I'll say there's two ways for President Trump to unexpectedly lose this election.
	One would be the senior vote having this undercurrent of people who just don't get up, get out and vote.
	And some of that is being senior.
	So that's it's not just they don't like Trump, but it's not liking Trump enough to get themselves out of their house.
	Maybe if it's snowing on Tuesday or they're just too old or whatever.
	Right.
	To get out and actually vote.
	The second piece is is the female vote issue, which we've been talking about, you know, off and on, which is is that the female vote we know is leaning significantly towards towards Kamala.
	That number, I think, in polling can actually be overrepresented when you take into consideration potentially males not turning out or not answering.
	And so that can happen even in a polling environment where people don't pick up the phone, they don't answer, men don't have time, they're not interested, whatever, they already voted.
	But you can have an over-representation that is seemingly very scary, and it could actually happen on Tuesday if men don't turn out to the tune of one to two extra percentage points.
	If men don't turn out at one to two percentage points, or I should say one to two percentage points less in some of these states, that is a dramatic, dramatic decrease in voter turnout for men that people don't understand.
	And it would definitely and certainly hurt Trump where this is a unique election where he is so strong with men and Kamala is so strong with women.
	It would be Totally unpollable, based off of just the simple sample size of turnout.
	So yeah, I agree on that with this poll.
	I think that that could be the indication.
	Let me just add an element here, and let's continue to extrapolate it.
	What if Ann is very wrong, which I think we are, about the state, but she has detected that there is...
	And again, I went very viral.
	And Andrew would agree.
	I was so vanilla in how I said this.
	I was simply analyzing that it's unhealthy for a political movement to try to encourage a wife to lie to their husband about who they vote for.
	I just think that's really gross, honestly, about the deceit between the disharmony of a holy union.
	That's just me.
	So I want to play this, though, because this is the Julia Roberts ad where it makes the, obviously, the man look like a Trump supporter and like a stupid buffoon.
	Even it shows him voting for Donald Trump.
	And then the woman, I'm sorry, cut three.
	This is a different one.
	That was a different one I'm talking about.
	And the woman votes for Kamala Harris in the advertisement, and she lies to her husband about who she votes for.
	And just so we're clear, the Democrats push to win.
	In order for the Democrats to win with the current data, millions of wives would have to lie to their husbands.
	I'm going to say that again.
	In order for them, because we're not seeing this in the data yet, we're not seeing this collapse, their path to victory would be the largest...
	Mass conspiracy of spousal lying in political history.
	Prove me wrong.
	Play cut three.
	Your turn, honey.
	In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose.
	You can vote any way you want.
	And no one will ever know.
	Did you make the right choice?
	Sure did, honey.
	Remember, what happens in the booth stays in the booth.
	Vote Harris-Waltz.
	Vote Common Good is responsible for the contents of this ad.
	Yeah, I mean, what you said on Megyn Kelly, Charlie, just to reiterate what you were saying, you said it.
	You said a verifiable fact, and I think it tweaked a lot of the left-wingers.
	You said this guy, this white man or whatever that looks kind of like a douche in this particular advertisement was probably supporting his family.
	Obviously, it's an actor, but in general, if you extrapolate it out, it's probably supporting his family, providing, giving his family a good life.
	Well, it turns out, Charlie, if you took a macro analysis of the American workforce and American family structure, only 18% of Well, exactly.
	I mean, by the way, Megan...
	No, Megyn Kelly even did a follow-up portion of her show the next day and said, Charlie Kirk did nothing wrong.
	Like, this is objectively true.
	So the point is, I think they just don't like the idea of a strong, masculine figure in the home providing for his family.
	But beyond that, to encourage your wife to lie...
	I think incredibly offensive.
	Encouraging wives to lie to their husbands is incredibly disgusting and offensive.
	But this is what's crazy, Charlie.
	They're actually posting numbers saying they think one in eight spouses are essentially lying to their husbands about who they voted for.
	They're like, oh, look at these encouraging numbers.
	And yeah, I mean, exactly.
	But they're essentially saying, you know, look at the downfall of the American family, the institution of marriage.
	I mean, you're getting these...
	Yeah, no, I mean, but isn't it fitting that if...
	Isn't it fitting, Blake, that in order for Democrats to hold on to power, they need millions of spousal infidelity when it comes to voting?
	Isn't that fitting, Blake?
	Do you want to go, Tyler?
	Well, I was just going to say, I mean, this has been the Blue Anon theory that's existed since Kamala entered.
	And this is one of the risks that the Democrats are running, is that they inserted Kamala super late into this thing, and they immediately had to come up with really crazy Blue Anon theories that they had to speak into reality.
	And this was the one from the very beginning that there was going to be a repeat of 2020.
	They were going to attack Trump on all the same things they attacked him with that worked so well for them.
	But it was going to be even worse and even better because Kamala is younger and cooler and whatever, right?
	And we can just make her a female Obama.
	And the blue and odd theory is that we can get Republicans to secretly abandon the Republican ticket at levels that we've never seen before.
	This has been their strategy from day one.
	This is what they're doing.
	That's why you're seeing in Wisconsin and Arizona and other places these billboards that say, I'm a former Trump voter and now I'm voting for Kamala Harris.
	It's like these people in real life don't actually exist.
	They're on billboards but they don't actually exist.
	So they're forcibly needing that to happen.
	And when you have these specific scenarios where it over-represents itself, and it does happen in the female community, it does happen in the white college-educated female suburban community, More than other places.
	And when you look at crosstabs, and you look at polling, and you see that there's a heavy amount of polling that's happening in the suburbs, and there's a heavy amount of polling that's happening overrepresented with white, college-educated females, you're going to have some of these things pop up.
	Could they happen?
	They could happen.
	That could look like the electorate in a state or an example state somewhere where some of these things don't turn out as much.
	But this has been their theory from day one and what they know is one of their only ways to win.
	Blake?
	I'm just thinking there's been all these like lurid tweets from Amy Siskind and others where they're talking about, yeah, they're canvassing and they're getting these like, you know, they'll be talking to someone at the front door who's a Republican saying he's voting for Trump and then the wife will be in the background and she'll be like mouthing.
	Harris.
	Has this ever happened?
	Probably.
	It's a nation of 330 million.
	There's so much of this weird...
	It's like Democrat porn, basically.
	The secret body betrayal.
	Trump...
	No, I'm voting for Harris.
	Yeah.
	This is blue and non-pour.
	I want to white-pill you guys too.
	I want to white-pill you guys.
	And Tyler, I think you would agree.
	So I was talking to a great American, Justin Caparelli, who was like the logistics manager of all the Trump rallies.
	He works his tail off.
	Tyler knows him.
	I said, Justin, what's the biggest difference?
	Because he's been doing this now for nine years.
	And I said, Justin, what's the biggest difference between 2020 and 2024?
	He said, you know, Charlie, it's a great question.
	He said, the amount of young families that now go to MAGA rallies is breathtaking.
	And I think that's right, don't you, Tyler?
	I think they're underestimating the young Gen X family vote that is not...
	I mean, honestly, maybe boomer women are lying to their husbands.
	I don't know.
	But Gen X, which Andrew's technically a millennial, but he's right on the edge there, you guys...
	Where that kind of mid-40s, early 50s parent who's seeing all this trans stuff.
	Tyler, would you agree that there is maybe a lesser understood family MAGA vote that is going to materialize?
	So I have a really hot take on this.
	I can't say now, but I'll wait until after the election on this.
	But after the election, I have a really great point that we're going to talk about after the election because I don't want to anger a bunch of our own people.
	But look, here's...
	And it's accurate, but I completely agree with you.
	I think there's a really uplifting, great element that we have captured at an earlier time period, younger people, people who have become legitimately what we talk about all the time as being based, as being awakened, that are turning back to the family.
	They're going to church.
	They're taking over business.
	And I've said this for a long time is there's been this transition with millennials in particular that are like the age 28 to 40 right now, that age group, that are taking over baby boomers, retiring businesses.
	And it's forcing them to grow up at a much faster rate over the last five years.
	And I think for the next 10 years, this will continue to happen.
	And it's expediting people becoming more conservative, more Republican, more family-oriented, and more interested in real life and grown-up stuff and not environmentalism and gay pride and things that don't matter.
	To their day-to-day lives.
	And so this is a really interesting point that we're seeing is that this wasn't the same types of Trump.
	We didn't see these types of Trump rallies in 2020.
	2020 was nothing but fandom.
	Now we're seeing people coming because their lives are so impacted.
	And we're seeing so many people in the conservative movement now inviting and bringing in their families, bringing in their spouse.
	We're seeing more women.
	I'm just telling you this from Turning Point's perspective.
	And it's just as...
	We're one element of this, but Turning Point Action has had so many moms, so many spouses get involved, husbands and wives.
	We've never seen this before, and it's night and day from 2020.
	We should play the Dems porn ad.
	Porn, porn, porn, porn.
	Let's say it a few more times.
	Wait, did we not play it yet?
	No.
	Did we not porn play the porn ad?
	No, this one.
	The condom broke.
	I have Plan B in the bathroom.
	Great.
	I'm gonna go get that now.
	Sorry.
	You can't use that.
	Who are you?
	I'm your Republican congressman.
	Now that we're in charge, we ban Plan B. No, you can't.
	You can't do this.
	I can't have a kid right now.
	I won the last election, so it's my decision.
	Now let's get back in there, so we can give her the news, Daddy.
	That is the weirdest thing I've ever seen in my entire life.
	I can't say that.
	I've seen a lot of weird stuff in my life.
	That is the weirdest political ad.
	But to Charlie's point, I really want Charlie to chime in here because this is right up his alley.
	But you have a whole movement that, yeah, you've got abortion trucks at the DNC. You've got encouraging wives to lie to their spouses.
	And then you've got this ad, which is obviously a couple...
	Fornicating outside of marriage, obviously.
	And then basically saying that the mean old Republican, and by the way, the typecasting for the Republican congressman, it couldn't be more on the nose of this dirty old man that wants to get into your bedroom or whatever.
	It's just like the whole thing, if Ann Seltzer's right, these ads are having an impact.
	Otherwise, you know, there's enough people with a brain on their shoulders and their heads that see through just the blatant, cynical propaganda that's coming out of the Democrat Party right now.
	Well, I can tell you this, too.
	I think we're in a space where there's always an action and a reaction to these things.
	I think these things are what is causing such a dramatic shift with men.
	And that's a positive, right?
	Because people are watching them.
	They're like, this is totally stupid, idiotic, ridiculous.
	And again, you have this small sample size of your own life.
	I have some really good friends who were all millennials.
	Some of them were kind of just apolitical, kind of left-leaning, married left-leaning women.
	And one of my best friends that I have from high school that we played lacrosse together, everything else, just recently texted me.
	So it's the opposite effect from what that commercial is showing, which is he texted me.
	He's like, hey, my wife doesn't really know, but I love J.D. Vance, and I'm voting for...
	And he was always left leaning.
	He voted for Biden for sure in 2020.
	Oh, that's an interesting angle.
	I love that.
	And he told me, and this is one of my best friends, right?
	He's like, hey, and he knows nothing.
	This is how little one of my best friends from high school knows.
	He's like, we were sitting and we got together for our fantasy football draft this year.
	And me and my friends are all sitting there.
	We're going through the draft.
	And he's like, oh yeah, because he knows what I do.
	But he's like, I love J.D. You know J.D.? Oh, you met J.D.? I'm like, yeah, I met J.D. He's like, do you know Charlie Kirk?
	I'm like, yeah, I kind of know Charlie Kirk.
	Like all my friends, like my other friends are laughing because they're like, yeah, yeah, sort of.
	He kind of knows Charlie.
	And he's like, oh yeah, I watch all the stuff.
	And like, I love it.
	But yeah, I'm voting because of J.D. We got to get J.D. in there.
	Like, and It's the opposite effect.
	There's men in real life doing what Democrats' mental porn is with women in the polling booth, I think, for our side at a greater pace.
	I will say, I just find it funny how much energy is going into debunking this or that poll and all this.
	It's like, we're two days out, guys.
	We're going to find out who's correct in two days.
	And if people were really loudly arguing this way or that way, they're only going to be more embarrassed, whatever the outcome is, if they're incorrect.
	Can I tell you something to hopefully give us?
	I mean, this is my hopeful indicator.
	Turn out what we're seeing in early voting.
	I'm not going to say it's everything, but what I'm going to say is this.
	If you were going to win, right, and if you were going to be excited about voting, if men were going to be excited about voting, they would turn out...
	Earlier at a higher number, right?
	It doesn't go necessarily the other way, but for sure if we win, we're going to look back and say from a 2020 perspective of this is part of the reason why we won.
	That's a great indicator on a great pathway.
	We still have a long way to go in the next 48 hours here.
	But that is a great indicator.
	I would rather be on the side of it's clear that we have exceeded expectations from 2020 or exceeded the bar from 2020 as far as percentages and numbers, and we're seeing that in every state so far.
	To me, that's a better indicator from a Republican standpoint.
	Yeah, I get it.
	No, I just want to say the low-prop battle is now won before Election Day, and we have won the low-prop battle, meaning that we have gotten more low-props out than Democrats in every swing state, except maybe Michigan.
	I don't know what's going on there.
	That place is weird.
	But the point being is that...
	Meaning that if you're doing well with low props going up to Election Day, that's a good indicator you're going to do well with low props on Election Day.
	And there's almost no chance in no universe that Democrats will close the low prop universe on Election Day.
	Is that correct, Tyler, that it is a canary in the coal mine of low prop universe?
	Yeah, I mean, I'll just use Arizona, for example, and we're doing really well here and not necessarily as well in all other states as we are here, but we're doing the job, I think, the right way with low props.
	Let's look at the opposite with high props.
	Now at this point is when we start to shift in the data and we see how many high props are left that we can count on to vote.
	Because Democrats' window is closing.
	Most of their high props vote early.
	Well, early voting has ended in many of the states, many of the swing states, including Arizona, Michigan.
	So you've got these situations now where Democrats know their window has slammed shut, their door has slammed shut.
	We have to do our best to get out the vote with now high props to make sure that they actually do show up.
	Because if that poll is correct in Iowa, which is where we started this whole conversation, it's really that we're losing high props.
	It's really that we're losing the people who we expect to vote, not the people we don't expect to vote that we're doing a good job turning out early.
	Does that make sense?
	I don't know.
	So that's the fear and the fear porn that you're going to see over the next 24 to 48 hours.
	Is that people are going to look at this and they're going to go and they're going to get lots of clicks off of it and people are going to spike it on Twitter on X and on Fox News and other places on Newsmax is they're going to say, oh my gosh, you know, the house, the sky is falling.
	Everything's burning down because we're not turning out nearly as many of our high propensity voters as we should because someone's going to come out with an analysis on that.
	You know, with the never-before-seen early vote universe that has never existed prior to this because Republicans have never done it before.
	And all I can say is this is like, stop living in fear and start turning out more of your neighbors.
	That's what we've been doing.
	And so far, from a data standpoint here in Arizona, it's worked.
	From a data standpoint in Wisconsin, it's worked.
	So we have to do more of that.
	Okay, I want to introduce another wrinkle here.
	Yeah, go ahead.
	I was just going to say, your audio went out when we played the porn video, so you didn't get a chance to reply to that.
	I don't know what you guys said, so I don't want to repeat it.
	How do I best say this?
	I mean, the Democrats, in order to hold on to power, must reach to the lowest impulses of humanity.
	That's what they're doing.
	And that's what they represent.
	And we'll see if it's successful.
	I mean, if you want the black-pilled version of why, if we don't win, it will be that we are broken and we are sinners and that people want to stay in the flesh.
	I hope we rise above that.
	I really do.
	I hope we do.
	I get asked a lot what I think of the overall election, which way I lean.
	And I always frustrate people by saying it's basically a toss-up.
	But I agree with what Tyler said, that if I had to...
	Would I rather be in the position of the GOP based on the early vote totals or rather be in the Democrat position?
	I would have to say I would rather be in the GOP one.
	I would rather be the party that has a big surge in the number of people registered with us.
	I would rather see...
	The mail vote and the early vote going, trending our direction.
	I would rather see what we do see, which is a higher share of our low prop voters have already voted, and it seems a slightly lower share of our maximum of our high prop voters have come out, at least in Nevada, where I keep checking that.
	And...
	And Arizona.
	The numbers are...
	The numbers we have...
	I'm sorry.
	Our best voters haven't voted yet in Arizona.
	Yeah, it makes sense.
	Sorry, keep going.
	You think of who would maybe be the people who are just diehards that they will only vote on Election Day.
	In some cases, you know, we still get emails from these people, Charlie.
	The people who say, I don't trust early voting.
	I don't trust mail voting.
	I will only vote on Election Day.
	If you're going to find those people, I think they're going to be in our four out of four voters.
	And we have to imagine, we wish those people had voted early because it would help us, but we have to imagine almost all of those people will get their ballots in.
	Yeah, I mean, what's left in Arizona, not to get too nerdy into this, because we're going to spend...
	I don't want to hurt everyone's brain right now, because we're going to spend the entire week talking about this, probably leading into this for everything else.
	But what I just was talking about was we're looking at...
	So let's take Arizona, for example, which is really critical to a Donald Trump win, statistically, right?
	So we're here in Arizona.
	We're doing Arizona for this reason.
	We, right now, Charlie just tweeted this out not that long ago, are up nearly 200,000 ballots.
	We're on the pathway.
	We didn't get a report from Maricopa County in the last two days, but we're on the pathway to being over 200,000 advantaged.
	That means more Republicans, 200,000 more Republicans than Democrats have turned out without analyzing the independents that have voted here in Arizona.
	That now tells us a story.
	We look at that, and that's a...
	Massive sample size.
	We're talking 2.3 million voters.
	And we can see how many of those are low propensity voters.
	The Republicans, we Republicans, are beating the Democrats.
	And it's not insignificant.
	It's not like by 0.1, 0.2%.
	We're talking like 4 or 5% in some of these categories.
	So that's a massive amount.
	That's a huge blow to the Democrats.
	They are out of time.
	They cannot chase and find these people that are low propensity.
	They're not going to vote.
	Those low propensity are not going to vote.
	So now you shift to this high propensity voter.
	You say, oh my gosh, our only hope at this point is Hail Mary.
	we turn out somehow more high propensity voters than the Republicans and Republicans don't turn those people out.
	So that's where you're seeing this messaging of try to dissuade people from turning out who are your normal voters.
	And that is like, again, that is their, their, their dream scenario is that that happens somewhere at a larger clip than we expected.
	That element somehow exists without it being pulled this entire time.
	And are you going to see that with the remaining undecided voters at a higher, at a higher percentage at a higher rate?
	Of course, because those people are undecided and that's, those are sometimes the only people that they're voting.
	Arizona already has probably more close to two thirds, if not over two thirds of the votes already cast.
	And then remember our high propensity voters, we have more of those in Arizona now than the Democrats have left and they're out of time to go chase their people because their people always vote by mail at a, at a much higher rate.
	They don't show up on Election Day at the same level.
	We still have more of those people that exist by a lot who will probably show up on Election Day based off of historical norms.
	And so, yeah, I mean, that's looking really grim.
	If I was Democrats looking at that, I would go, man, statistically, we're in a position where we're already down 8% in the polling or in the turn-ins, so the rate of return here between Republicans and Democrats.
	We're probably going to go down another few percentage points just with Election Day turnout between now and Election Day.
	They would have to have an absolute miracle of that happening under the water here of women flipping that are Republican and people not showing up and seniors not showing up.
	It's just not likely.
	It's just not going to happen.
	Anything can happen.
	We've got to run to the finish line here.
	So one other element here that I want to mention is as we go into these next couple days, what other things that we might be missing that you guys have read that could make Kamala Harris win?
	Anyone can chime in.
	What other elements here, Blake, that...
	I want to do this because we're not here just to tell you guys all the good news all the time.
	Blake, what needs to happen for her to win?
	And what other things are you reading that are being whispered?
	We went through the large political spousal deceit, which is basically their Hail Mary.
	Tyler's right.
	It's blue and non.
	It's incredibly unlikely, but if it works, it works.
	I don't want to discount it because remember back in 2016, they all thought we were nuts because we said there were quiet Trump voters out there that were going to show up and we were right.
	So, Blake, what else is there?
	Well, so we've highlighted, again, there's the potential Dobbs abortion vote.
	Maybe this just really has permanently radicalized women of all age groups.
	I would say the other two things, we mentioned it with the Iowa poll where they were saying democracy was the number one issue.
	Maybe it just turns out there's this...
	Set of voters who were just deeply alienated by January 6th, and it doesn't need to be a huge chunk of them, but if it's 5% of Trump supporters, even 1 in 20 Trump supporters, and those people would be voting for him, except that one thing just irretrievably broke it, and they're switching their votes, that would be enough to flip the election and flip a lot of states.
	The other thing I think about is we do still have we're still going to have Election Day voting and if you look at the states what Democrats have left is they do have youth vote like on campus those are the people who don't do much early voting is people under 25 and could we see a surprisingly large number of those people turn out to vote who are sympathetic to Harris while at the same time will the people who are sympathetic to Trump drop the ball I could see
	that happening where...
	This is my concern.
	This is definitely my concern.
	We've seen polls.
	We've seen evidence that Trump is stronger with young black men, that he's stronger with Hispanic men, stronger with young men in general of all groups.
	And the thing about young men is...
	They don't always seal the deal.
	We've had those interactions where some, we didn't say who, but someone who forgot to register in Florida.
	And I could see a lot of cases of that.
	In Florida, you had to finish registering a month ago.
	And if you haven't, you can't do it on election day.
	I have another two stories here, and they're worth mentioning.
	A young lady...
	Who was helping us out at dinner the other night.
	She says, oh, I saw you at Grand Canyon.
	I'm a huge fan.
	I will follow your stuff.
	Like, are we going to win the election?
	Like, yeah, of course.
	It's like, so did you vote?
	She's like, so how do I vote?
	And I was like, well, you're registered, right?
	She's like, do you mean like my driver's license?
	No, this is a nursing student, okay?
	She's not dumb.
	And I said, I said, what do you mean?
	She's like, well, you were there and like everyone was filling stuff out.
	I thought that was like for driver's licenses or something.
	I said, let me get this straight.
	You think I showed up on campus to give people driver's licenses?
	And she's like, so is it too late for me to vote?
	I was like, well, you could go vote provisionally.
	She's like, what is that?
	I was like, forget it.
	And Erica was so mad.
	She was like, if we lose, it'll be because of people like this.
	Story number two.
	Another person who has millions of followers, who loves Trump, texting me this weekend, in all caps, bro, how do I vote?
	I said, are you registered?
	And he's like, I don't understand.
	I'm reading it.
	I don't know what that means.
	I was like, what state do you live in?
	He said, Nevada.
	I said, well, good.
	It actually allows same-day registration.
	And so I said, like, it's like, finally, these stupid laws help us, right?
	So I sent him all the details and I've been bothering him like every two minutes about voting.
	Final one this weekend.
	Young lady at the gym.
	These are real stories.
	Comes up.
	Love your TikTok videos.
	Hispanic woman.
	Young lady.
	Very sweet.
	I was like, have you voted?
	She's like, well, I got my ballot.
	And she's like, I'm going to put it in the mail today.
	I was like, no, do not put it in the mail.
	You must go to a voting center.
	So guys, this vote wouldn't have been counted.
	Yeah.
	Because it's too late.
	It's past the deadline to mail back your ballot.
	So if we lose, it will just be...
	We have won the support and we just can't get young people to do the most basic thing.
	The most egregious of all those stories, though, was the young nursing student from Grand Canyon.
	It was just...
	I feel like...
	It was breathtaking.
	We're going to get...
	We should do a poll if we win after Election Day where we do a poll of the entire country and we include in the poll the question, did Charlie Kirk personally tell you...
	How to cast your ballot?
	And maybe that will be like, actually, approximately 0.3% of the entire national vote was engineered by Charlie Kirk explaining people how to register and cast their ballot.
	Well, we've said this before on here, is that this is what we found.
	This is why the Democrats have changed laws to gamify the entire system is because, again, if this is pre-technology era where nobody knew anything going on, it was just like kind of all up to like who saw the guy standing on, you know, on the soapbox in the park one time, like in the you know, on the soapbox in the park one time, like in the And, you know, you kind of saw it just on like the major network TV and you kind of just like guessed and you actually watched debates and actually soaked it all in.
	That was how elections used to work.
	Elections don't work that way anymore.
	This is why laws are changing and this is why the Democrats are manipulating it to Charlie's point is they they've changed to same-stage registration and these things because they found years ago what Charlie discovered in talking to people out on the street.
	And what our team has found as we put people out into the to be what we call concierge service for voting with our ballot chasing program is that, again, we say the number one reason people don't vote is because they think that their vote doesn't matter.
	But the number two reason is because people legitimately don't know how to vote.
	No, they don't know.
	I totally agree.
	I used to think that was BS, and now I'm like...
	Charlie, you've heard me say this.
	They literally do not know how to vote.
	It's like they don't know how to vote, or they think they voted, or they think they're participating.
	It's literally crazy.
	And then you start realizing this is who operates America.
	And to your point, Charlie just said, very smart girls in nursing school.
	But a person that can't figure out that part, the civic duty part, is also the person administering drugs to you in a hospital.
	So you start realizing, as a nation, Maybe the stepping stone, the first step is in the Frogger game that we're playing here, is maybe we do need to really invest into civic education and less into Karl Rove ads.
	And that's why we're doing what we do.
	That's why we do what we do, and it's good.
	And to your point, if I could wave a magic wand, I will say this affirmatively, and Ryan I think will agree, and Andrew would.
	If I could wave a magic wand and get everyone who liked my TikTok videos in the last 60 days to vote, I think we would win.
	Andrew, is that...
	Maybe I'm wrong.
	Maybe I'm, like, so kind of, like, in the clouds.
	But I got to tell you, when I meet some of these people, it is a small percentage of them, like, from recognition to voting.
	It's, like, 15%.
	Well, I mean, it makes me want to do sort of, like...
	A lot of viral videos somehow create viral videos, which are hard to just magically do.
	I mean, we have a really good system, but we educate people where to go to register to vote, right?
	So they actually start learning the civic process.
	I told you, Charlie, after our UNLV campus stop, I was shocked at the lack of basic economic knowledge that young people have, like macroeconomics, nothing.
	They don't understand where inflation comes from.
	They don't understand what happens if you just give away a bunch of money.
	Literally zero idea about this.
	And so it doesn't shock me that people don't know how to register to vote.
	But yeah, I mean, Charlie, to your point, from a pure metric standpoint, it's something like six.
	And Ryan could get us updated numbers, but it's something like 600, 650 million video views in the last 60 days.
	And you're going more viral right now, probably because the election.
	We're putting out a lot of content right now.
	But that is a huge swath of the electorate.
	And I mean, how many times now, Charlie, do you go to campus and everybody's like, I follow you on TikTok.
	I follow you on YouTube.
	I mean, it's basically like all the kids that show up.
	And half of them apparently don't know how to vote.
	Well, and think about, they don't know how to vote.
	They don't know how to do a lot of things in life, right?
	There's just really basic civics, really basic life-living skills here that, again, you shouldn't be able to...
	I don't think you should be able to be entrusted with someone else's life in any kind of way if you just really don't know the basics of adulthood.
	we aren't teaching this stuff this is like going back to the right like conservatives and education are completely right like this is scary stuff we don't know how to register ourselves to vote and how to vote and we expect to like go up against like the chinese army someday like the like the military like the greatest military force is going to take us out when you know we tariff So, like, it's gonna be...
	I'm picturing that poor nursing student, but now she's, like, been drafted to Kamala's military.
	Let's not blackpill too much.
	So now let me...
	No, but this is why we're educated.
	Let me now rein it back in.
	Let me rein...
	Hold on.
	Go ahead.
	Charlie, we make a video with Charlie, like, a TikTok video of how to vote in each of, like, the 50 states, where it's, like, you go to this website, and then, like, we show Charlie, like, carrying his ballot to, like, the ballot drop box that they have in Wisconsin or something.
	I don't know.
	And then anytime someone asks, Charlie just goes to his list of 50 videos and just sends it to them.
	Well, there's actually a funny thing, Charlie.
	Our team gets really frustrated with me because I always use this analogy of like, you know there's instructions on the back of the Pop-Tarts box?
	And so every time we're doing anything with process-oriented stuff, like our Commit 100 program, everything else, I take whatever they give me, and I'm like, this is too complex.
	This is too difficult to understand.
	And it's pretty difficult stuff that we do process-wise.
	But I'm like, you've got to dumb it down.
	You've got to make a decision.
	And they're like, but everyone knows how to do that.
	I'm like, no, everybody doesn't know how to do that.
	They put instructions on the back of the Pop-Tart box because people don't understand how to take it out of the wrapper and put it in the toaster.
	So easy a low-prop voter could do it.
	You cannot assume that everybody knows how to do anything at all, period.
	You have to tell everybody every...
	And that's the education step.
	And I think...
	And I'll tell you, this is a whole different thought crime.
	The damage that the Kochs did to the conservative movement was this.
	Is that there was this overly...
	High education.
	You have to be the smart guy talking about all sorts of snobby stuff, like socioeconomic theory and everything else.
	And that's your ticket to ride for the conservative movement.
	And meanwhile, we have people that don't know how to vote.
	And we spent hundreds of billions of dollars on that for 15 years throughout the Bush and Obama eras when we basically could have been building up an army of people who learn how to vote and do basic civic stuff.
	Don't get me started.
	Now, not to blackpill.
	However, Blake, even if a small percentage of these low-prop new voters end up voting in an election where we have undetected polling errors in the margins, that could actually end up being incredibly consequential, right?
	Is that if there's a new...
	Yeah, so I don't want to totally blackpill, but we're definitely...
	Guys, we've left meat on the bone.
	I'm telling you right now, there are millions of people who agree with us that are not voting.
	I just want everyone to like that for a sudden.
	There are millions of Americans that agree with us that are just not voting.
	It's very likely that the winner of Tuesday's election will get several million fewer votes than Donald Trump got in 2020 in an election that he lost the popular vote in.
	Because we're likely to have a lower turnout election this time.
	Maybe I'll be wrong, but all the signs are this will be more like 2016, fewer people voting.
	There will be millions of people who could have voted who don't turn out this time.
	And it's much like I described the midterms in 2022 with that turnouts down in the midterms.
	And so if you had Donald Trump, if you got even like 100,000 fewer votes in Arizona in 2022 than Donald Trump got, like Carrie Lake wins in a landslide.
	Blake Masters wins in a landslide.
	And instead, you have way fewer.
	So it's always in this election, it's going to be who loses fewer voters from where they were in 2020.
	Well, and again, this is the positive, right?
	Is we take this and we think about it and we go, we got to get everybody out.
	Because the depression that the Democrats are experiencing, if we don't have the same equivalent of that, you win, is what you're saying, right?
	If we just match the intensity that we came to the table with in 2020, it is almost impossible for the Democrats to win with the numbers that are out on the table right now in most of these key chart states.
	That's right.
	And we have about a six-point enthusiasm advantage in some of these states.
	And that's motivation to get out there and get...
	There's someone you know in your life right now that hasn't voted.
	There's someone in your family that has not voted.
	Me included.
	And I know those people.
	I know the neighbors.
	I pulled the map.
	I pulled the map on the application, the Turning Point Action application.
	I've looked at it.
	I was talking to people today.
	I spent three hours today before I came into the office contacting voters on my street and talking to people, dropping off notes, just saying, hey, please remember to vote.
	Everybody knows that this is the difference maker, right?
	And that's the simple message that we have to tell everybody and teach everybody to do.
	You've got to get that out.
	Okay.
	I want to tell you guys about one of our partners here.
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	Guys, where do we want to head next from here?
	Do we want to talk about the squirrel?
	We can talk about the squirrel.
	We can talk about the squirrel.
	This might be the most important October surprise of all time.
	Harambe has been watching over us for the past decade now.
	I'm a little sad we don't have Jack for this, but now we have Peanut the Squirrel.
	Ryan, do we have memes about Peanut the Squirrel?
	It would be fun to show the AI images of that while we're talking about it.
	Yeah, this is not what I expected to be a final weekend topic, but the state of New York sent in police officers because some guy had a pet squirrel in his home named Peanut that he made YouTube videos out of or something.
	But some nasty woman reported it because it was not an approved pet.
	He didn't have a pet license for it.
	So they sent in and they seized his illegal pet squirrel as well as his illegal pet raccoon, and both of them were I think Trump actually made a statement on Truth Social about it and everything.
	It's a pretty funny topic.
	Yeah, there we are.
	We have Harambe with the squirrel.
	It's tragedy.
	This might be the saddest thing to happen in American history.
	And I think it's really motivating people as we go into the homestretch here.
	It's actually legitimately bizarre though, right?
	Like, so this guy has, this squirrel has like a million Instagram followers and has a happy life.
	And by the way, we can't forget Fred the raccoon.
	It wasn't just the squirrel, you know, it was Fred the raccoon.
	And they come into this guy's house.
	They raid it like he's some criminal.
	You know, meanwhile, New York has, you know, rampant crime on its streets and subways.
	Illegals are taken over everywhere.
	And they spend their time raiding this guy's house, taking two animals out of it that were safe, that were Instagram stars, apparently leading a very happy life.
	And they euthanized them.
	I mean, it's actually pretty infuriating when you think about it.
	It's like, where are we putting our tax dollars to work and why?
	And this poor guy, I guess, he goes on TMZ. It's like you got...
	You've got Daniel Penny in New York facing 20 years for saving the lives of bystanders on a subway car in New York.
	And yet they take their time to go euthanize a squirrel that has a happy life.
	It's actually somehow it's deeply And by the way, we don't deport the illegals that kill people under DUIs.
	And yet we go raid homes over squirrels.
	It's very weird.
	It's like when we talk about Republicans being the party of common sense, I'd like to chalk this up to like common sense party stuff.
	It's just it is weird.
	I mean I don't it's a weird story because it's obviously there's more important things in the world going on.
	But it's so emblematic of something deeper and more fundamentally stupid about the way we do things here.
	Another thing I want to add is I feel like this might be the first political issue of an election that to a substantial extent may primarily or even only exist because we have AI image generators now.
	So what made this have a lot more energy is you can...
	Now you have all these images of, like, Donald Trump hanging out with squirrels or the squirrel with Harambee and all these other things.
	Like, that's definitely made it a lot more viral.
	And what is otherwise, you know, a weird story about the state of New York killing a pet, which does not directly relate to a national election.
	But it's had so much more entertainment value because you're able to make all of these images and...
	I suppose we'll see more of that going forward.
	We also saw it, of course, with the Springfield, Ohio discussions where you had all the Donald Trump rescuing the cats and all of that.
	But that would have been an issue anyway.
	Whereas this, the fact that any one of us can go and be like, yeah, make an image of Donald Trump rescuing a squirrel by helicopter and then they're flying into the White House or something, increases the entertainment value of it massively. increases the entertainment value of it massively.
	So the fact that we're going to be enslaved by AI overlords is a little more tolerable, given this fact.
	I just, there was more content about Peanut than there was pro content about Peanut than about Kamala this week.
	And I just can't...
	I can't...
	I'm serious.
	I don't see any...
	And this is totally different from 2020.
	There was so much content that was out there on regular social media like Instagram with like normie women and things like that that were posting about Joe Biden all the time and it was so obnoxious and it was annoying.
	I don't see anything about Kamala now.
	Like with friends that are Democrats, whatever.
	I think that's so smart.
	So allow me one thing.
	Yeah, go ahead.
	No, I was just going to say but Peanut was everywhere.
	So that does jog the memory of something I've not talked about publicly.
	And I think this is very important.
	So I've done 25 campus stops, okay?
	25.
	And Tyler, you remember that when I used to do these campus stops...
	Just my appearance would be met with mass counter-protests, right?
	So you would think that if I go...
	So, for example, I went to very liberal ones as well.
	Madison, Boulder, because I had a donor thing there.
	One's in California.
	I mean, there were some very liberal ones.
	NAU. If you want the white...
	Yeah, NAU. If you want the white pill...
	Again, I'm going to change the topic off of the squirrel for a second.
	Which is great.
	So if you want the white pill as to why we are going to win, there was not...
	Like, the most counter-protests I got were like six people.
	You think about it.
	We have a thousand people in MAGA hats.
	What an opportunity to counter-protest it, right?
	Not a single...
	By the way, if Dobbs was really that big of a deal, which is not being reflected in the polling, it's there, but it's not huge.
	Wear words like the massive pro-abortion protests.
	They just weren't there.
	I mean, in fact, in Georgia, we had six people at a card table.
	We had 4,000 people next door.
	Tyler, can you build that out?
	There is not single grassroots energy at all.
	I mean, I did 25 in every state imaginable.
	Right?
	From Georgia State, which is super liberal.
	I mean, Tyler, what are we missing here?
	No, remember that one that we did years ago?
	It must have been right before 2020 when we did it.
	North Carolina State University.
	Yes!
	They took over the whole campus.
	It's not even an ultra-liberal college, university.
	It's probably middle-of-the-road-ish, right?
	I mean, most state schools are pretty liberal, but not...
	NCSU is not, you know, even UNC, Chapel Hill.
	And they literally took over the entire...
	We had this thing in the ballroom, had probably about a thousand people there.
	And downstairs, in the foyer, there was probably 2,000 people protesting Charlie speaking.
	This was four years ago.
	And the juxtaposition to now, we're coming on campus, and it's literally the opposite.
	It's worse than the opposite, because at least we had 1,000 people in a room.
	Charlie's saying, we're not even seeing pushback.
	They just don't exist.
	They don't exist.
	There's no pushback.
	There's no interest.
	There's no intense pro-Kamala stuff.
	There was even pro-Bernie, or I would say even pro-Biden stuff four years ago.
	You just don't see this stuff, and so it's...
	It's even faker to me all the things that you hear about, especially in polls, than it was even four years ago or even prior to that.
	It's so hard because you're out in public in real liberal environments And we just don't, we're not seeing it the same way that we saw it years.
	And I think that we're somewhat professionals in that environment, right, Charlie?
	Like, it's just, it's mind-blowing.
	No, and I just, I want to be clear.
	Like, if we are going to get our clock cleaned on Tuesday and lose, this ingredient has to manifest that I have not seen on any 25 campus tours, which is young, libs, rise in record numbers and vote for Kamala.
	I haven't seen it anywhere.
	In the bluest areas of America, Flagstaff, Arizona, which is as crazy as it gets, Coconino County, Boulder, Colorado, Georgia State University, from Madison, Wisconsin, from UNC Chapel Hill.
	Guys, I went to UNC Chapel Hill with Vivek.
	Andrew, you were there.
	We had to turn away 1,800 people.
	Right, Andrew?
	Turn away.
	This is where abortion is supposed to be the biggest issue.
	They're not mobilizing a human being to be like a sign that says, you know, hands off my body, my body, my choice.
	Not a thing.
	And again, I'm used to that.
	Usually they find purpose in all this.
	It is completely deflated.
	It is non-existent.
	And, you know, I just, from Arizona State, U of A, Tyler, we went to University of Arizona.
	We had no counter-protesters.
	We had 2,500 people of support.
	I remember when I was on the Board of Regents in Arizona, I would go down to U of A, and it was like...
	Absolute, just like, liberal nightmare, hellhole, crazy stuff.
	You know, the DSA, like, basically no longer exists.
	So the Democratic Socialists of America, young Democratic Socialists of America, like, no longer exists.
	We don't even see them anywhere anymore.
	And we legitimately have a major uprising of younger people, which, again, going back to the poll that we talked about earlier, we're seeing some of those things come through in some of these polls, and some of them we're not.
	And we're never talking about the ones that's not manifesting.
	We're not talking about...
	When we're not seeing those things show up in polls because of maybe the traditional ways that they're looking at these things.
	So it just is mind-blowing to me that like Peanut the Squirrel can take over everything.
	Like we're in such a weak environment where Peanut the Squirrel takes over Instagram much, much easier than like Tim Waltz or Kamala Harris.
	And we're not seeing it in real life.
	We're not seeing it online.
	We're not seeing it.
	So like to Charlotte's point, like where is it?
	This goes to a larger point.
	I think even David Sachs pointed it out on Twitter.
	We're always cautioning ourselves about this, that we're high on our own supply.
	It's all anecdotal, whatever.
	Obviously, we're conservatives.
	We see a lot more conservatives.
	I mean, but it does sort of feel like one giant psyop.
	I mean, because to Charlie's point, I mean, I've been doing this with you guys a long time, and there was so much counter-protest energy in the past.
	So much.
	And, yeah, perhaps they see the big crowds, they know not to come near because they're just going to be outnumbered.
	That's a total possibility.
	But anecdotally, across my life, I was telling this to Charlie earlier today, I just simply do not see...
	What is trying to be reflected not only in Seltzer's poll, but any poll.
	I don't even see this thing being even close.
	I know Blake was texting some images, some canvassers going through public housing.
	We know they do this stuff.
	And obviously, you know, nobody on this on this show is is hanging out in public housing, I don't think, on a regular basis.
	So like maybe there's just a larger number of those people.
	But anecdotally, all of the signs that we saw in 2020 or even 2016 simply are not materializing right now.
	And it's such a mind meld because it's like what where are these numbers coming from?
	Where are these supporters coming from?
	I live in liberal California.
	I don't see it here.
	So, you know.
	I'm not saying that all of this stuff is malicious or that they're trying to create an air of plausibility for some, you know, whatever, some malicious aims.
	But I'm saying, like, I don't see it.
	And so where is the energy?
	I don't think Kamala Harris is at all an enthusiasm builder.
	I don't think she's an inspiring candidate.
	Yeah.
	I mean, here, you know, it's interesting.
	Let's actually get this tape here.
	Blake can do this.
	Ryan, pull this here.
	And so this is a video.
	We'll get this in a minute.
	Where one of our street reporters at Turning Point USA walked the streets of Madison and just started asking random students, what do you think about Charlie Kirk?
	What do you think about Trump?
	And it's just amazing, the response.
	Again, there's like one guy that tried to throw a beer at me in Madison.
	One guy.
	And then there was another girl who came up and said he thought I was dead.
	We walked all of frat row, right, Tyler?
	The whole thing.
	We walked the entire thing.
	And you would think it was just a love fest.
	I mean, there's libs there, but they're muted.
	They're not organized.
	They're not consolidated.
	And you can't say the same for us.
	Like, I mean, we are motivated.
	We're turning out.
	And we are seeing, I mean, Tyler, can you say nationally, the Democrats are not turning out their base voters like they did in 2020?
	Yeah, they're not turning out their base voters, but the one thing that was the difference maker for them in these elections that they won is they turned out their low propensity voters.
	So, you know, again, it's a two-way street here.
	That's not happening.
	It's a two-way street, which is like you have to consolidate your base and sell a brand or an image that can move into other categories.
	And then you've got to chase down the people who are less likely for longer than the other side, and you win.
	And I think part of the problem that the Democrats have is there's no Kamala Brand.
	She wasn't liked to begin with.
	They've had to invent her.
	They've had to bust people in that we know.
	I don't know if you guys...
	We've talked about the guy that follows everybody's cell phone tracking and everything, where they're from, all the data...
	But they're having to bus people into different places from across state lines in most rally situations and work really, really hard to pack places, I think, to create a bandwagon approach for Kamala Harris, to create a brand very quickly, which, to their credit, they've done, I think, pretty well, given the circumstances for them, that Kamala Harris was not liked at all, statistically, from the polls.
	Yeah.
	So they've really flipped that thing around.
	But they needed to have that brand that they've created.
	And I don't think they've had enough time to be able to do everything.
	There's too many moles to whack here.
	And they're missing moles.
	And that is a benefit to us if we do the work.
	Now, in prior elections, we haven't done the work.
	Charlie and I have talked for dozens of hours about this, publicly and private and everything else, about how we haven't done the work.
	And this is hopefully what our hopeful outcome is going to be, is we work hard enough to be able to prove that if we do the work while the left doesn't do the work, then you win.
	And this will maybe be our first election where that's actually a true scenario that's actually happened.
	Because that wasn't the situation in 2016.
	It wasn't the situation clearly in 2020.
	But this may be our first chance to really get that knocked out.
	All right.
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	Okay, let's wrap this up, guys.
	Actually, let's play Cut 21 from the streets of Madison, Wisconsin.
	What's your thoughts on Charlie Kirk being here?
	We love it.
	I love Charlie.
	I'm so excited.
	Shout out to Charlie.
	What are your thoughts on Charlie Kirk being here?
	I'm so excited!
	What's your message to Charlie Kirk?
	Well, it's definitely not that.
	You know, Charlie Kirk spreads a good message.
	He's got a good way of explaining things and I love his simplicity of telling people like it is.
	How do you feel about Charlie Kirk being here?
	I feel fine about Charlie Kirk being here.
	I don't mind.
	Charlie Kirk is fun.
	He is very fun.
	Do you like Charlie?
	Love him.
	What's your thoughts on Charlie being here?
	I had a good time with him.
	He was amazing.
	What's your thoughts on Charlie Kirk being here?
	He's a good guy.
	You like Charlie?
	Like who?
	Charlie Kirk.
	Yes.
	What's your thoughts on Charlie Kirk being here?
	I am a fan.
	I'm really glad he's here.
	That's Liptown, USA, man.
	Crazy.
	The big overall question, we talked about, we're not seeing it in the early vote totals, we're not seeing it in the energy.
	A very popular term on the right, especially when the left had far more dominance of media and public narratives, was...
	Silent majority.
	That was a term coined by Nixon more than half a century ago.
	And if you read that speech, he's talking about, like, there's a silent majority of Americans, and they're not being hippies, they're not protesting the war, they're not doing all of this, they're not burning down cities and these riots, they're not doing all these things, but they are the majority.
	And kind of the big question is that we will see decided on Tuesday night.
	The question that is latent in the Selzer poll, that's latent in all the debates over what will happen is, have we reached the point where the left is a silent majority?
	Where they're not the people with dissident energy.
	They're not the people speaking up.
	They're not the ones getting public attention.
	yet they are quietly passively the majority because they care about abortion because they care about j6 because they care about whatever these things would be and it's sort of it would represent an interesting transition because it would mean even if they win the election it would be the sign that liberalism is is like tired that it's exhausted that people are not excited about it anymore at best
	it's just sort of a societal default that a lot of people shrug and keep in But that's not a great position to be in.
	If you think of Nixon's actual silent majority, well, even if they were the silent majority, they did not stop the rise of liberalism in the long term.
	They did not change the fact that the left won a bunch of culture war issues in the following decades.
	So, if the left does turn out to be a silent majority on Tuesday, that would stink.
	That'd be awful.
	We'll obviously all be crushed.
	But it would still be an interesting long-term development where suddenly the left are just this exhausted, tired, quiet ideology that no one is excited about anymore.
	And I think that would be the first step towards it really going into a serious decline.
	Just to be clear though, in order for this silent majority to manifest, it would mean also that the public opinion polling is wrong.
	The silent majority in 2016 was legit.
	Partially because we saw in the public polling that trade and immigration were increasing in people's top issues, right?
	We haven't seen that.
	Abortion's actually gone down in people's top issues.
	And you're right, Blake, it could happen.
	I'm not discounting it.
	But also that silent majority in 2016 was like showing up to rallies and there was like organic, spontaneous parts of support.
	No, I know your silent plurality in swing states.
	Yeah, I just, I guess the speculation ends soon, right?
	Andrew, why don't you go state by state from the most accurate pollster in 2020 who has made their final publication, Atlas Intelligence.
	They called it to a T in 2020.
	They said Biden was going to win.
	Walk us through it.
	Yeah, I mean, why this was important, Charlie, is it came out right during the Seltzer Poll, which just had everybody, you know, ablaze on Twitter or X. It came out right then, actually right before, which I thought was good, because these pollsters all know what the other pollsters are doing.
	That's why Emerson dropped when it did.
	That's why Atlas dropped when it did, because the rumor mill was going crazy.
	And by the way, something we didn't mention, Charlie, is that J.B. Pritzker actually He actually spilled the beans that he knew the seltzer poll was gonna come out Harris plus three in Iowa a couple hours before.
	Not only that, guys, but hold on, Andrew.
	Remember, I got a screenshot that I thought was fake that was the same headline 12 hours before.
	Remember, I put it in the chat, guys?
	And I was like, hey, this is probably fake.
	Ends up it was right.
	Ends up it was right.
	It was right.
	No, and the guy, somebody goes, did you just guess this right?
	Like, how did you come up with this?
	He's like, J.B. Pritzker dropped it.
	At some fundraiser or whatever, you know, yeah, I guess it was 12 hours before Seltzer dropped it.
	So it begs the question, why are Democrats finding out about this, like, bombshell poll 12 hours before it does?
	And, I mean, it's because Seltzer's a, she's a partisan, she's a partisan.
	There's no getting around it.
	But all the, everybody knew this thing was coming down the pike.
	I mean, on Thursday and Friday, you and I were chatting, Charlie, and we're like, there's going to be some polls coming out that are going to like blow everybody's mind.
	And it was the seltzer poll.
	Everybody knew it was coming.
	But then Atlas, which was actually the most accurate pollster in 2020, is basically got Trump up by 3.4 in North Carolina, Trump up by two and a half in Georgia, which I actually think is going to be a little bit bigger than that based on what we're seeing from the rurals in Georgia and which I actually think is going to be a little bit bigger than that based on what we're The depressed urban turnout in Georgia, unless they cheat.
	Arizona, we got them up by 6.5, which, love to see that since we're so active in Arizona.
	That's a little rich for me.
	We'll see.
	No Arizona commentary until Tuesday night.
	Yeah, fair enough.
	Nevada feels high at 5.5.
	I think that's going to be more of like, you know, Trump, if he's going to pull it off, it's going to be like 20,000 to 30,000 votes.
	Wisconsin up by one.
	Michigan up by one and a half.
	Which is interesting because everybody, the prevailing wisdom right now is that our best chance in the Rust Belt is going to be Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
	And Pennsylvania up by 1.8.
	And so the most accurate pollster, RCP national polling average has us winning the popular vote.
	You know, so there's a ton of tailwinds behind us right now if we show up.
	And I want to pay special attention.
	I wish Jack was here for this.
	But in Pennsylvania, it cannot be said enough that that is a state with day of voting habits, right?
	Because they've made early voting sort of like this quasi-early voting where you go into your county office, you request a ballot, then you vote there.
	Charlie, you're saying 3 million need to come out on election day.
	Maybe it's 2.5, maybe it's 2.7, maybe it's 3.
	But here's the deal.
	Three million puts it to bed.
	Three million Republicans.
	Yeah, and it's a huge state.
	Biggest prize on the board.
	But here's what I'll say.
	It can't be stated enough.
	It was a 1.1 million Democrat firewall advantage going into Election Day in 2020.
	Republicans surged to within 80,000 votes.
	So that 1.1 million firewall is now about 400,000.
	So that is a huge, huge sign in that state.
	I mean, you have people like Elon Musk who camped out in Pennsylvania for the last month saying that we're on track to have a huge, huge victory there.
	I hope he's right.
	All of that hinges on a couple things.
	Men, are you going to show up?
	Conservatives, are you going to show up?
	Are you going to get a flat tire?
	Are you going to get the flu?
	Is something going to distract you?
	You've got to make a plan and you've got to vote.
	And if we do that in places like Pennsylvania, places like Wisconsin, we're poised for victory.
	I will say that.
	And the other thing here, and Tyler, maybe you can talk about this more specifically, but the urban vote-by-mail, which has long been their...
	This unbeatable firewall that they've set up in these urban cores is simply not there.
	I'm seeing numbers out of Philly that says that there's just like 200,000 vote-by-mail For Democrats that have just evaporated.
	We don't know what happened to them.
	200,000 vote by mail.
	In DeKalb, in Fulton, we're seeing similar depression.
	In Clark County, in Maricopa, they're just not there.
	Are they going to show up on election day?
	That's what they're banking on.
	They're banking on a hidden R voter going dem, these wives, these women for abortion.
	And they're banking on essentially a tidal wave on Election Day and mass indie voting.
	They're basically saying indies have to go more Republican than they did in 2020.
	Tyler, I know you have the numbers, so please speak into it, but that's essentially what they're hinging everything on.
	Well, and that's the craziest part in this poll, the Iowa poll that we've spent so much time talking about with this whole thing, is it shows, as Ryan pointed out, the shift that everybody's seen in every other poll, the independents are going more to the middle, more conservative.
	It's at best, in most cases across the country, about split 50-50, not gradually or...
	Tyler.
	Tyler.
	Tyler, what were the Indy splits approximately in 2020?
	Like nationwide and like we could go into some of the states.
	I don't know some of the national poll.
	I don't know the national poll.
	It's all polling, right?
	And so it's really not helpful to look at the national.
	But in Arizona, for example, where we were at, Trump was a minus nine.
	And that's why when the first early ballot dropped that Charlie has been talking about so much...
	We came out and we were expecting a better result once the ballots dropped and it was a minus nine.
	That's why they called Arizona so quickly, was because it looked so bad on paper immediately because he was so far down with independents.
	And every poll that we've seen all throughout this election cycle has been nowhere near that bad.
	In fact, in most cases, Trump is winning independent polls.
	And I think even this last-minute surge that the Kamala campaign is trying to push is...
	Try to get more of those psycho, angry Republicans that...
	I'm just so mad at Trump!
	And even if they doubled that number, it would be like 7% of Republicans, which were up by a lot.
	and she's losing Democrats to Trump, right?
	So you have to remember, again, in your inner city vote that everybody's been talking about, so she almost has to do that just to keep up with Trump in some of these states.
	And then in addition to that, you look at the independents and you're like, even this Iowa poll shows the most horrific thing for the Democrats, which is that this isn't going to be a minus eight or minus nine situation in Kamala's direction for independents.
	And It's going to be, at best in some of these states, like a minus...
	I'm sorry, for Kamala, it's going to be like a plus 2 for her.
	It's going to be like a plus 3, a plus 4 maybe in the worst case scenario.
	And that's who they're chasing right now.
	The only shot they have is to look at the Biden independents, the Biden Republicans, chase those people.
	They're not even turning out...
	Their own low propensity voters, much less those people.
	So, you know, we don't have a lot to fear.
	However, we have to do our own work and make sure we turn out our people in order to win.
	And we're going to go through this data in great detail.
	So I hope everyone's getting excited for this next week on the Charlie Kirk show.
	I have people stopping me every time that we go out, like we're out on campus with Charlie and they're like, I cannot wait for your guys's live streams after the election happens because we're going to go through these in such great detail.
	So we're live right now in Real America's Voice.
	Welcome, guys.
	Just finished the Trump rally.
	A couple announcements here.
	I do want to make sure we mention some of our members that have become members tonight.
	Rusty, Stewart, Cheryl, Cody, Susan, Paige, Gary, and Isaac.
	Members.CharlieKirk.com.
	You guys get a signed hat like that one in the back, that MAGA hat.
	I also want to remind you guys, this is your home, your destination for all election coverage.
	Tomorrow night will be a rather sentimental night.
	The gang here, I will be in studio.
	We will be covering the last ever MAGA rally.
	Tyler Boyer hosted the first ever MAGA rally.
	And Tyler, we got to get some of that footage.
	I've been asking Ryan for that for a while.
	Tomorrow we'll get that.
	That's all for tomorrow.
	We are going to retell the story of the first ever MAGA rally.
	And then we're going to live on air at midnight Eastern tomorrow.
	We will be live here on Real America's Voice anchoring the final MAGA rally ever.
	And that is tomorrow night.
	It is appointment viewing, guys, in addition to all of our shows here.
	So if you guys want to become a member, again, it's members.charliekirk.com.
	Welcome to Real America's Voice.
	We're going to keep going for a little while here.
	We have been jamming for a little bit.
	So another kind of interesting question here.
	Tyler, is the strength of the Democrat ground game.
	What have you seen, Tyler, on the ground?
	Arizona, we don't talk about it.
	It's too close to home.
	We're going to keep that close to the chest, okay?
	What have you seen from the Democrats in, like, North Carolina?
	So let's take a little time, guys.
	I am...
	I believe North Carolina is their Georgia this year, where they think they can sneak it from us.
	To the Trump campaign's great, great credit, he's doing four visits to North Carolina this weekend.
	That's exactly where he should be.
	The Democrat blogs are super excited about this young lady who's running the North Carolina Democrat Party.
	She's their state party chairman.
	They've turned her into, like, the new Stacey Abrams.
	She's very smart.
	She's capable.
	I don't know her name, but I have nothing against her.
	She knows what she's doing.
	And they're putting a ton of money into North Carolina.
	I was just in North Carolina.
	I could tell you it is far closer than I think people would lead you to believe.
	So, Tyler, what's going on with the ground game?
	And let's spend some of our time here on the great state of North Carolina as we are now live on Real America's Voice.
	Yeah, I mean, look, this is the...
	So, first, we'll back up here.
	The RNC has spent more money...
	Most people don't realize this.
	The RNC has spent more money per capita on North Carolina than any other state over the last eight years.
	So under the reign of Ronna, Romney, McDaniel, they spent a significant portion.
	And look, actually that's one of the only places that made the most sense because arguably in the post-Obama years it was horrifying for the RNC to lose North Carolina to Obama.
	There was also two Senate seats.
	In the two Senate seats, they had to correct the ship, they had to fix the ship, right?
	And the Democrat Party actually poured into North Carolina for years, wanting to turn that into the next take after Virginia, obviously.
	And so you've got actually a lot of...
	You've got a couple of different...
	Things that are happening in North Carolina that are unique and a little bit scary for us.
	The proximity to Virginia is really bad for us because the Democrat Party obviously has a ton of working capital in Virginia.
	Virginia is a crazy place because you can only be in office for like six months and they kick you out or whatever it is, right?
	No, I'm kidding.
	But you're one term and you're out.
	It's kind of cool.
	It's very Thomas Jefferson.
	And I actually like that about it, but they have constant build.
	And the Republican Party's done a bad job, but it's easy for the Democrats just to move and shift armies over to North Carolina very quickly, if it makes sense.
	And the second part is that you have, in North Carolina, you've got a lot of, again, where the Democrat Party's moving, which is away from blue-collar men, And into college-educated women, you've got a high amount,
	a unique high amount of college-educated women in North Carolina as compared to the rest of the South, which is much more similar to Virginia, why Virginia has gone so deep blue in certain elections in the past number of years.
	And it's different because they have an off-election cycle.
	It's shorter.
	But North Carolina is much more standardized.
	And it's a big state.
	There's a lot of people there.
	And you have a lot of ground to work.
	You have a really impressive black community that is involved.
	Again, in the post-Obama years, they're still really lit up about stuff.
	And they organize really well.
	And our side just has not done that as well, and so they've invested a ton of money into it for the past number of years.
	The party has no reason to lose North Carolina.
	They've invested so much money over the last three election cycles in particular that losing North Carolina would be like the absolute worst thing that could happen to the RNC. Because this is not something that was expected.
	That is not something that should happen in any kind of way.
	And the fact that Trump's having to come in and do the work now is important.
	And I'm glad that he's doing it.
	But the party, this is one of the reasons why it's like we say all the time here is you just can't trust the party infrastructure.
	Well, look, and I will say this, that there's a little bit of catch-me-up here cleaning up Rana's mess.
	I like Watley.
	I think he's doing fine.
	He's from North Carolina.
	And I got to give Watley one piece of credit here, is that he's taking it seriously, and he knows that this is necessary.
	And I think that's important.
	I think you got to suck up your ego, which I know that probably wasn't easy for him to call the campaign and say, hey, you guys got to do four visits in two days.
	And they're like, what?
	You got to do it.
	And I think that's right.
	I think they're making the right move here.
	Because I was on the move in North Carolina, and it's way closer than people think.
	And they've spent a lot of money, and there's been a lot of unaffiliated voters.
	We do not know how they're voting.
	Unaffiliated is category number one in North Carolina.
	Republicans number two.
	Tyler, keep going.
	Yeah, I was just going to say that I totally neglected that.
	So North Carolina has a really interesting element that's actually similar to Arizona, where it's a huge amount of unaffiliated or independent, party not defined, party not determined voter base.
	And so that makes it really hard to figure out.
	And a lot of the states like Georgia and Wisconsin that don't have party designation, when you have a huge amount of independence, you have to figure out who those people are.
	So you can figure out who to turn out that's on your side.
	And when you neglect that, you don't do that, that's how you lose.
	To the party's credit, to Watley's credit, to what they've done, they've spent more time there on that practice than anywhere else in the country.
	So again, I'm fully convinced that as long as they're doing their job with turning out those people that they spent all that time and energy on, that we should win.
	But we shouldn't take it for granted, and I'm glad that they're not.
	I actually think that's one of the things that hopefully we'll look back on and say, I'm glad that we just didn't take it for granted because it was closer than we thought.
	And the work needed to be done there.
	Four visits should clean it up.
	Four visits in two days should get the necessary attention to clean this thing up.
	Charlie, explain how, I think for the layman out there, how a rally turns into actual voter turnout, right?
	Yeah, that's important.
	So number one, the most obvious is that everyone there gets energized and they talk about it and they're posting on social media.
	So you got to think about, you got 30,000 people that are all posting, you know, to 600 Facebook friends.
	You got like full regional coverage there, right?
	Right.
	And it's a reminder to get your ballot in, all that.
	That's number one.
	Number two is you get the white noise crew, which is the boomers that don't leave their home because every local TV is doing stand-ups there, right?
	They're doing the sticks.
	Donald Trump was here tonight in, you know, Asheville, North Carolina.
	Donald Trump was here in Concord, North Carolina.
	And that's what's so brilliant about going a little bit outside of the metros is you go like 20 minutes outside of Winston-Salem or 30 minutes outside of Charlotte.
	And then all of a sudden they're like, wow, Donald Trump was in Pinehurst.
	Donald Trump was in Boone.
	And all of a sudden it's just like the chatter is It totally spikes.
	Number three, it's a shot in the arm for the grassroots to go knock on more doors, to go make more phone calls.
	And then number four, which I think is really important, is that it creates national attention around the state.
	You get a lot of good coverage for people that kind of watch all the cable numbers.
	There is a direct correlation, a one-to-one, of when Donald Trump, and not every candidate has this, Obama had it, to his credit.
	When Donald Trump visits a city, there's a direct correlation that Republican returns increase 48 hours later.
	More people go and vote, more people are, his numbers do better.
	And so, yeah, there is a one-to-one correlation.
	And there's almost no exception to that, except we'll see what happens in New Mexico and Virginia.
	And so what Donald Trump is also doing is that people in North Carolina will be like, Yo, he's visiting four times.
	I better get three more people to go vote or I better take this seriously.
	Like, all of a sudden it gets everybody locally in North Carolina.
	Like, imagine, Tyler, if Donald Trump visited Arizona four times this weekend.
	Could you imagine?
	I mean, it would be the number one thing in the state, right?
	Everyone would be asking for tickets and they'd be talking and you'd see Trump flag.
	I mean, four visits is a lot in a state like North Carolina.
	It is a lot.
	And that is a smaller state, by the way, proportionally than Pennsylvania.
	It's almost as big as Michigan.
	So what we have up on stage here is really important.
	So we have the states that are necessary.
	Tyler, this is currently their best bet.
	Their current best bet might be to quietly surrender Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and try to sneak Georgia North Carolina.
	I'm not going to make any predictions.
	I find them winning Georgia to be highly unlikely.
	I think Josh McCoon is doing a great job.
	Black turnout is down.
	The rules are raging.
	We had a great event there.
	It felt way better on the ground in Georgia when I visited University of Georgia than any of my campus visits in North Carolina.
	Any.
	I just got to be like, Georgia felt right.
	Would you agree, Andrew?
	Georgia felt way healthier.
	Charlie, Duluth, we had to turn away.
	I mean, what do we have?
	Like 13,000, 13,000 people at our Trump rally and we had to turn away like half of them.
	We had to turn away like 2x the crowd.
	That's right.
	So if the Trump campaign might be doing a misdirection play here, which I think is actually smart, where they've been saying Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania on all the networks, and quietly they know that North Carolina is actually the big bet, and they're cleaning that up.
	They want to make sure there's no leakage.
	They're cleaning it up because 24 is here.
	Tyler, walk us through the map.
	This is not your map, Tyler.
	This is similar.
	Let's pretend we win Georgia.
	But lose Wisconsin, win Pennsylvania, lose North Carolina, but also lose Nevada.
	And I'm not bullish on it.
	Nevada is as crooked as a $3 bill.
	Wait until we get our operation there.
	It'll be different.
	But if you lose Nevada...
	No, that's not the right map.
	The other one.
	Yeah, that's right.
	There it is.
	A lot of maps.
	So win Arizona, win Georgia, win Arizona, win Iowa, win Georgia, win Pennsylvania, lose North Carolina, lose Michigan, lose Wisconsin, lose the White House.
	Tyler, walk us through this.
	Yeah, and I don't have that Matt pull up in front of me right now, but looking at that, you have...
	I mean, this is the most interesting part about North Carolina.
	I actually think that the Democrat move into North Carolina is actually a surrender on Wisconsin.
	And here's what they could be seeing right now, and it's a little bit different from this map, which is that a North Carolina win for them is what's the replacement for Wisconsin.
	I don't think they're giving up on Pennsylvania at all.
	No person's going to tell you that they're crazy enough to give up on Pennsylvania because it is a...
	It is a toss-up.
	It is Russian roulette as Russian roulette comes with states.
	It's the only one that's on the map that's historic.
	You win this, you most likely win the country outside of the old Ohio-Florida mantra.
	So Pennsylvania is that for us now.
	They cannot lose Michigan.
	If they lose Michigan, the game's over anyway.
	They're going hard in Michigan like we're going hard here in Arizona.
	We've said that numerous times.
	But this move to North Carolina and this emphasis on North Carolina, I believe, is a direct give up on Wisconsin from them.
	Them saying that they're seeing something that we may also not be seeing, and they have better data on Wisconsin than we do.
	Just quite frankly, they do.
	They've spent more time and energy on Wisconsin.
	That's a big deal.
	That is a breaking story.
	Because there's no reason why you would put those kind of resources into a potential toss-up North Carolina unless you were completely sure about Wisconsin.
	Unless you were unsure about Wisconsin.
	I don't think it's just unsure with them.
	They would be doubling down, tripling down Wisconsin.
	I think they are completely...
	You want to talk about blackpilling?
	I think they're blackpilled on Wisconsin.
	I think that what they're seeing is they're worried they're going to lose that Senate race too now there.
	And this is a...
	Totally.
	A barnstorm hope that they can pull out on North Carolina, pull out on Obama because it is such a weird place.
	And catch us by surprise.
	And again, this is the reason why North Carolina is so important right now, this week.
	Man, it is hard to find Kamala Harris' event schedule.
	However, because I'm trying to see where she's going tomorrow.
	If someone can find that, I've been looking for it for 10 minutes.
	She had a very...
	So if you want to get deep into conspiracy woo-woo land, Blake, she had one campaign stop today and in Michigan.
	That was it.
	It's the day...
	You're 36 hours out.
	She did Michigan.
	Now, tomorrow, she's in Pennsylvania all day.
	And only Pennsylvania.
	But she only did one stop today.
	Donald Trump did three.
	He's doing four tomorrow.
	That is seven in two days.
	I mean, look, there's a lot of criticisms you could lay against Trump.
	He's going nuts.
	I mean, he's doing everything he can.
	And it's interesting.
	The Trump campaign told me two months ago that they were worried that they were going to get into a rally off against Kamala.
	That it was going to be like, I have a bigger rally than you and it's boom, boom, boom.
	Seems like Kamala didn't go with that strategy.
	And that never really materialized.
	I don't know what to make of it.
	Maybe I'm reading too much into it.
	But the Sunday before the election to do just one event.
	That's bizarre.
	Charlie, I actually do think it's because the crowd building has been such a labor for them.
	I mean, I've seen the same things that Tyler's seen.
	I think in order to throw a rally, they have to prep it well in advance and they have to bus people in.
	I'm not just saying that.
	There is multiple accounts doing cell phone tracking on the people.
	For example, when she did the event in Phoenix and we were all like, We ended up doing the RFK endorsement event at, what was that?
	The Coyote Stadium, right?
	Tyler, you know the area.
	Desert Diamond Arena.
	Yeah, the Desert Diamond Arena.
	We did not have the upper bowl sectioned off.
	She did.
	And when they looked into it, it turned out that a lot of those people were coming in from California.
	Multiple, I would say something like Kamala Harris stops.
	So these are recycled, rehashed attendees, and a lot of them are for out of state.
	I genuinely think she has a crowd building problem.
	I really, really actually think that that's true.
	It doesn't mean she's not going to get the votes.
	Because I don't think she's as charismatic of a top-of-the-ticket candidate, but it does mean that I think that she needs to be very careful about where she picks and chooses.
	She does not want to have a bad PR moment with an empty stadium.
	Tomorrow she's in Allentown.
	Is Jack online?
	Can we throw to Jack?
	Oh, Jack!
	Jack, what happened?
	You got in a fight at a...
	Jack, okay, we got only about 10 minutes, Jack.
	Jack, you got in a fight at an Eagles game?
	Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
	The fight started.
	I ended the fight at the Eagles game.
	Let's get it straight here.
	Now, we all took a little bit of a trip down to Eagles jail, but some of us were allowed out and back into the game.
	By the way, when we got down to Eagles jail, all the cops down there were like, Jack, I was watching your live stream yesterday, man.
	Great job.
	Keep it going.
	It was amazing.
	So yeah, some guys tried to...
	We posted the videos as well, like, We went in with the MAGA hats, myself, my brother is downstairs, staying over at my parents' house right now in Norristown.
	And, you know, we went in and it was like 90-10, you know, 90% people cheering and we posted some great videos.
	But then you get that 10% boo-boo, blah-blah, F-Trump, whatever, that kind of stuff.
	It's an Eagles game, you know how it goes.
	And then this one guy had, like, two other guys who just, like, Didn't like the hat, so they tried to jump us, and let's just say it did not go well for them when myself and my brother got involved, and then a bunch of other guys who saw what was going on got involved, and yeah, it just turned out like that.
	It was a fun night.
	Let me just put it that way.
	Good for you, Jack.
	Hey, Jack!
	Break down the PA vibe.
	I just said that vote-by-mail has basically...
	I'm looking at the numbers.
	There's like 200,000 vote-by-mail Democrat ballots out of Philly.
	Specifically, you're in Philly or around thereabouts that just didn't show up compared to 2020.
	You just said it was 90-10 at an Eagles game.
	The mail-in numbers statewide are not there.
	The mail-in numbers that they had in 2020 are not there in any way, shape, or form.
	They're just not...
	They're just not there.
	They're not physically there.
	And the thing is, our day of dominates their day of tremendously.
	And we deliver a crushing blow.
	And so what we did differently this time around...
	Yeah, what about cannibalization?
	Did a lot of our people end up showing up early?
	Like, what are you seeing on that?
	Well, no, because, and here's why, because I was just going to say, with Chase, with Scott Pressler, early vote, turning point action, Trump Force 47, that's all low price.
	I was specifically targeting low prop, and it's tougher to get those low prop guys out because they don't like to vote regularly, they don't like to vote normally, and now all of a sudden you're telling them to vote early, they're like, what's going on?
	So all of those numbers that you see coming in from the Republican side, if they were early mail-in votes, Those are low-prop votes.
	And we did have some for the early in-person voting, but this is a really weird system that Pennsylvania has.
	Not a lot of people trust it.
	There's not a lot of trust in the process, especially under Josh Shapiro right now, who Democrats really regret that they did not choose Shapiro right now.
	That's everything I'm hearing from inside their house says, why did we not choose Josh Shapiro?
	Now she's got to do all these rallies in Pennsylvania.
	We could have had this in the bag.
	They're looking at a totally different map than they thought they had when they were picking her.
	When they picked him all.
	And so the idea being that Republicans are, and I'll just say this anecdotally, so I've gone to a Steelers game, a Nittany Lions game, Penn State, and now an Eagles game.
	So that's the Pennsylvania Trinity, if you will, the triple crown of Pennsylvania football.
	And every Republican I talked to said, election day, election day, election day, election day.
	It's in addition to all the other rallies and stuff that we've done.
	So they all want to do election day.
	So our four of fours and our main voters are all coming out on Tuesday.
	Whereas for them, a lot of their high props have already gone in by mail, and then they have some, of course, that are going to come out on Tuesday, but way, way less than our in-person is going to be.
	So, you know, say what you want about the numbers, but there's a strong possibility that we get a lot more.
	Look, if the day of Delta does not beat the early vote Delta, then that might be the game right there in Pennsylvania.
	You heard it there.
	Blake, final thoughts here.
	It's two days to go.
	By the way, this Prop 36 thing is actually big news, Blake, if you want to educate the audience.
	Oh yeah, this is just breaking now.
	So California has a lot of crime and they kind of, thanks to initiative Kamala helped pass a decade ago, they kind of made it A lot harder to punish crimes.
	So on the ballot in California, they have an initiated measure that basically is you have to punish crimes now for real.
	And Kamala is, of course, a California resident officially.
	And so she says she cast her ballot in that state.
	And so some reporters asked her, well, okay, how did you vote on Prop 36?
	And Kamala...
	Won't say how she voted on Prop 36.
	Won't even say if she decided to not vote on it.
	Maybe she could have said she didn't feel confident picking a side.
	She just won't say how she did.
	Do we actually have the clip on that?
	I just posted it so don't worry about it if we don't.
	It's really remarkable how, like, the implications if Kamala were to win this election.
	Run, avoid all interviews, avoid all statements, avoid saying how you would ever be different from your unpopular predecessor.
	Literally have your own surrogates like Mark Cuban going around and saying, yeah, I don't think she's going to do any of those things.
	She says she'll do.
	I'm just confident she won't do that.
	And, okay, alright.
	Let's play it.
	Clip number seven.
	How did you vote on Prop 36?
	So, my ballot is on its way to California, and I'm going to trust the system that it will arrive there.
	And I am not going to talk about the vote on that because, honestly, it's the Sunday before the election, and I don't intend to create an endorsement one way or another around it.
	But I did vote.
	That's crazy.
	I mean, if she wins, I just...
	Make her the president!
	If she wins, I'm going to become a college football coach.
	I just...
	I can't.
	What offense would you run, Charlie?
	What offense would you run if you were a college football coach?
	No, you're not, Charlie.
	Don't even say it.
	It would be a hurry-up offense.
	And it would be a little West Coast, but power smash mouth.
	That would be great.
	I'd be a great offensive coordinator.
	Hold on, Charlie.
	Charlie, hold on.
	I just want to give us a shot.
	A little white pill moment in the midst of this.
	The work that we have been doing at Turning Point, thankless work for many years, has blossomed into something I don't think anybody, except for maybe those on this call right now, on this show right now, would have anticipated.
	I think we saw it coming.
	But the groundwork is laid.
	College football, that would be the biggest waste ever.
	We're seeing the biggest blossom of a generation, I think.
	Yeah, I know.
	I know, but you're actually half serious.
	People know that, like, if you know Charlie, actually his probably, your retirement plan would be, like, go coach football.
	So, I just have to make the obvious.
	It would be, the most fun you can have with your clothes on is to coach college football.
	So, and it's also, like, all the great elements of politics, which is, like, it's still pressure and competitive and You know, involves leadership.
	But anyway, it's not nearly as important for the society.
	Yeah, exactly.
	Jack, are you alright?
	Physically, yeah.
	I mean, they were checking us for concussions and stuff, but I was like, no, those guys don't have concussions.
	I'm just having fun because...
	I got to stop at Wawa earlier because we're in Pennsylvania, so I got my Wawa snackies right here.
	Jack, did you get punched?
	No, I got like this from the back of the head to knock the hat off, you know, kind of thing.
	And then, I don't even know if I should say what I did after.
	Did you punch anybody, Jack?
	Physicalities occurred.
	Alright, physicality's a curve.
	We're just going to leave it at that.
	It was a physical night.
	It was a very physical night, but as Charlie points out, with my clothes on.
	The most physical you can get with your clothes on.
	Tuesday's going to be a street fight.
	Might as well practice that.
	Might as well practice the Eagles game.
	It was like between where you go...
	I'm telling you, this guy waited for us.
	Because he came down and yelled at us like, We were just sitting in our seats, and this guy came down and just started screaming, like, why are you wearing those hats?
	Why are you wearing those hats?
	Very, very inebriated.
	We're like, go sit down, man.
	Go sit down.
	Eagles are winning.
	And they did win.
	You know, just sit down.
	Have a nice time.
	And he's like, what are you doing?
	He's like, wait.
	And he goes, I want to wait for you guys.
	We're like, OK, sure, man.
	You know, have one on us.
	And he actually did wait for us.
	So maybe he was just sitting up there.
	I don't know.
	So we were going up pretty much halftime.
	Man, he was just waiting for us, sitting up in this hallway and, like, jumps out at us, and that's kind of what started the whole thing.
	There's never been any fights ever in that stadium before, so that's, like, a really weird thing.
	It's totally surprising.
	There were, like, fisticuffs at an Eagles football scrimmage?
	I mean, if there's a place to get shanked, it's either at Dodger Stadium or it's there at an Eagles game.
	You're right.
	You're right, though.
	The Dodger hinterlands come out to those games.
	World Series champs!
	I did go to the Dodgers game once, but, well, I was outside.
	All right, guys, this was great.
	Become a member today.
	Members.CharlieKirk.com.
	But, Jack, the final question.
	Who is better, the Eagles or the Eagles?
	The Eagles.
	Obviously the Eagles.
	No, a huge win tonight.
	Obviously we're going to have a huge win on Tuesday as well.
	It's as simple as that.
	Look, they're terrified that they didn't pick Josh Shapiro and Josh Shapiro doesn't want her to win because he wants to run for president in 2018.
	He wants to run an open seat.
	So that's why he's not with the union votes around.
	That's why he's not doing what he needs to do.
	Look, and we did videos.
	We're going to post them later.
	So I had a Kamala Harris hat as well, which I don't have on me right now.
	But we did videos walking around.
	And let me tell you, I got so much hate When I was wearing the Kamala Harris hat compared to when I wore the Eagles hat, that's actually the real difference.
	So we're going to do the play-by-play.
	We're going to put a video together of how Eagles fans reacted to the Kamala Harris hat versus how they reacted to the MAGA hat.
	And it's just a world of difference.
	I mean, people were like screaming at us.
	What are you doing?
	What are you thinking, man?
	What is wrong with you?
	I mean, the energy is there.
	The energy is absolutely there for them to not want to Uh-oh!
	Not sure whether or not I should wear the MAGA hat or the Kabbalah hat for that one.
	Probably a game time decision.
	Cool.
	All right, guys.
	Members.CharlieKirk.com.
	That is Members.CharlieKirk.com.
	Thank you, guys.
	We are live at noon Eastern tomorrow for our show.
	And also make sure you make plans to watch us for the final MAGA rally.
	The last ever MAGA rally will be streamed live here on Real America's Voice.
	Thank you guys so much and see you soon.
	Until then, keep on committing five crimes.
	Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
	Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

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