JD Vance's Winning Debate Strategy ft. Rep. Byron Donalds
Next Tuesday's vice presidential debate is probably the most important veep showdown ever. What should JD Vance's strategy be to make sure he comes away the victor and maximizes Trump's odds of winning? Rep. Byron Donalds knows Vance well and helps Charlie gameplan. Plus, Alex Clark joins to discuss her new show, Culture Apothecary, and talks about the media's hysterical reaction to the Make America Healthy Again panel she attended with RFK Jr. on Capitol Hill.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hey everybody, Alex Clark joins the program about her new podcast, Culture Apothecary, and Byron Donalds joins us to preview the vice presidential debate.
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Buckle up everybody, here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done
an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point
USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives,
and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.
I'm going to be here.
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We have a very special guest who is going viral, and I'm very happy about that.
Alex Clark, hello.
Hello.
What a whirlwind of a week.
Are you sleeping at all?
I've barely slept.
Barely slept.
I'm running on fumes, but in the best way.
This is so exciting.
I know the feeling.
Yeah.
I know the feeling when all of a sudden you kind of hit that curve.
Yeah.
And that's where kind of you're at right now, where it's like you've been waiting for that moment.
Finally.
It's really unbelievable.
So I had the privilege this Monday to speak on a panel in front of the Senate to testify on behalf of chronic disease in this country and the health of children, holding Big Food and Big Pharma accountable.
It was spearheaded by Senator Ron Johnson and RFK Jr.
and it was a powerhouse of all kinds of people.
Harvard, Stanford medical doctors, Nutritionists, activists, all just speaking on behalf of the health crisis that we're in in this country and asking people to please come together, totally nonpartisan, totally nonpartisan panel, to come together to help save the next generation of American kids.
And you have an amazing podcast that's soaring because the old thing's gone.
Yes.
And it's called Culture Apothecary.
Yeah, Culture Apothecary is my show and I rebranded.
It's number three right now of all Apple health podcasts.
Number three and it was just, it's all coming together perfectly because it's a health and wellness podcast and now this is like the main political conversation and it's the top health and wellness podcast on the conservative right.
So that's really cool.
It's amazing.
Let's play some of this tape here of your incredible testimony in front of the U.S.
My average listener, like me, is a woman in her late 20s and early 30s.
and we demand accountability for how the millennial generation was turned into a science experiment
without our informed consent for the sake of enriching Big Pharma, Big Ag, and Big Food.
Millennial women have started to have kids for the first time and they are disillusioned with
how hard it has become to not only get pregnant but also raise kids who are healthy, happy,
and mentally well.
Today, I am proud to represent them.
The poisoning of our food and the environment is the issue for these independent women.
It is devastating us and our children.
Tell us more, Alex.
Well, I just went into the whole timeline of how millennial women in particular have been targeted by the corruption in the food and pharma industry.
We were the ones where the vaccine schedule started to explode in the late 80s, early 90s.
Now you've got kids receiving up to 70 vaccinations by the time they turn 18.
We're not getting healthier.
We're getting sicker.
This is something that they don't want us to talk about.
And I just drew attention to how horrible our childhood was.
Growing up, the vaccine schedule explodes, disease goes up.
The food pyramid that we were taught in school was a complete sham.
We were lied to.
Millennial women were told that we had to be on birth control.
We were not given true informed consent about hormonal birth control, that our anxiety, depression rates would go up 80%.
We then tried to get pregnant, having trouble now getting pregnant because the hormonal birth control was hiding different hormonal issues that would, you know, cause infertility issues.
And then now raising kids ourselves, all the different hoops we have to jump through.
If we ask questions to our pediatrician about the vaccine schedule,
we could be reported to child protection services or kicked out of our pediatrician's office
and told we're not allowed to come back.
The fact that you can't get baby formula in this country that isn't filled with seed oils or soy.
You have to order it out of the country from Europe to come in.
Human breast milk is filled with microplastics now because of all the plastic that we're consuming on a day-to-day basis.
Our brains, we talked about the panel, someone else on the panel brought up how our brains now are basically coated in plastic because of how much we're consuming and the health issues that's causing.
So I just told the story of what millennial moms today have gone through and are going through.
And the reception was insane.
So they waited till the very end.
I spoke last after this four-hour panel.
And Senator Ron Johnson said, we've saved the best for last.
I think he was just being nice, like just saying that because I was last.
But then I got two standing ovations and everybody was just like, Geeking out, going crazy, a whole like line, picture line formed after of all these bombs that said, I didn't know you before.
Now I'm so excited to listen to your podcast.
And people were just so excited because that was my mission.
I was like, I'm not the expert.
I'm just going to speak on behalf of them and what I know they wish people would know about their day-to-day life and struggles.
And I think that resonated in a way that I just, I thought it would resonate, but I didn't know it would resonate that much.
And I'm just so grateful that it did because now everyone is talking about it.
For good reason and well earned.
We've been working with Alex for many years and you are hitting the stride and the inflection point.
Very proud of you.
Play cut 65.
The next generation of children is predicted to not outlive their parents if we continue on the trajectory that we are currently on.
When in human history has that ever been the case?
We are fatter than any prior generation at this age.
We're having more fertility issues.
New cancer diagnoses in the U.S.
are projected to top 2 million for the first time this year.
And these new cases are almost all driven by young people.
This is according to American Cancer Society data.
What happened?
So Alex, you're hitting on something really powerful here.
Young people know that they're inheriting a worse country than their parents.
Harder to own homes, more depressed, more suicidal.
It's just more difficult than what our parents had.
But you're also saying they're not going to live as long.
Like everything is worse for young people.
Why is that?
Because the food and pharma has captured absolutely all of the information that we're given about health.
And so we are declining at such a rapid rate.
It's shockingly terrifying.
And the point that I made was, you know, obviously day-to-day politics are important.
Everything that you're discussing on your show is so incredibly crucial and important.
But what happens if nobody is alive to vote on these issues?
So everything we talk about, all these like little, you know, political issues in the economy, whatever, If there's nobody around, then it's all null and void.
So we have to do something.
And I also love, this is why the RFK endorsement to Trump is so important.
This is why I came on your show a few weeks ago and I said, Charlie, I can't express to you how important this is.
I knew that this was the number one issue with female voters.
We may have just cinched Once and for all, the suburban mom vote with this panel, with RFK Jr.
there, knowing that he would be a part of the Trump administration if Trump wins.
And so I have gotten thousands and thousands of messages over the course of the past few days.
I have gained like 40, 40-something thousand followers just in the last couple days alone, and it's still climbing because of these clips.
And it's all moms now messaging me saying, I didn't know you.
I haven't heard of you.
Everything you said was true.
I was bawling my eyes out listening to that as a mom.
What do I do?
How do I get involved?
How can I make a difference?
And every single one of them, I'm replying, vote Trump.
Tell your friends to vote Trump.
Tell your neighbor, mom, friends, and your mom groups, playdate groups, to vote Trump.
And they're all like, okay, done.
I'm willing to do it.
So this is it.
This is it.
And this is why I've been hammering this.
This is why RFK Jr.
has been hammering this.
If we're worried about the women, keep hammering the health and wellness.
It is working because And just so everyone understands, Trump has already made good on his promise.
every day.
On a personal level.
Personal level.
And they were emotional.
They were bawling their eyes out watching my speech because what I was saying is true
and they know that we are at a crossroads here.
This is it.
This is the only opportunity we have to fix things.
And just so everyone understands, Trump has already made good on his promise.
RFK's on the transition team.
So if you guys don't understand, the transition team basically is the, they're the leadership,
they're the general managers that fill the 5,000 positions of the government.
RFK's already involved in that.
So it's not even a matter of like, oh, I will.
He already has.
He's a co-chair of the entire transition team.
And so that's something to kind of go back to, you know, some of these moms be like, no, he's already making decisions.
He's already involved in stuff.
Let's play cut 66.
Growing up, millennials were handed health advice that was inaccurate, mistaken, or downright fabricated.
Almost everything that we were taught about food and health was made up.
The only guidance that we received on what to eat came in 1992 via the Food Pyramid, a completely manipulated work of fake public health crafted by the Department of Agriculture.
The food pyramid told us that all fat was bad, a lie.
It told us to make complex carbs like pasta, bread, and processed breakfast cereal the bedrock of our diet, not because it was healthy, but because it was the most profitable recommendation for Big Ag and Big Food.
I grew up in a country, Alex, where my parents were told by our doctors and society, carbs first, carbs first, carbs first.
And it was all a scam.
It was to make us fat, sick, depressed, and unhappy.
And the corporations made billions of dollars.
And they want to make billions more dollars on us.
Culture apothecary?
That's the podcast.
Yeah, follow me anywhere you get your podcasts or Rhea Alex Clark on YouTube.
I'm sure you know how to spell it now.
Oh, yeah.
I can't spell.
Charlie's good at a lot of things.
Spelling is not one of them.
I'm not a good speller.
And it's doing very well.
We're number three right now today in health.
And I'm like right behind Matt Walsh on the overall podcast charts today on Spotify.
So it's very cool.
We're on the up and up.
It's awesome.
Join the club.
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Tell us about this Atlantic article.
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noblegoldinvestments.com. Tell us about this Atlantic article. I'm trying to find the title
here.
The Atlantic decided after seeing a nonpartisan roundtable discussion in the Senate about
children's health and food and pharma corruption to write a hit piece.
And they called it the Woo-Woo Caucus.
Proud member.
Proud member of the Woo-Woo Caucus right here.
Anybody else?
We need stickers.
We need shirts.
Blake is a huge Woo-Woo fan, just for the record.
Okay, I love that.
Yeah, we love Blake.
So, the article is pretty nasty and labels you guys as right-wing extremists.
Of course, yeah.
Caring about children's health.
Right-wing extremism.
Working out.
Right-wing extremism.
Drinking non-pasteurized milk.
Right-wing extremism.
So interesting.
What is it about the idea of reaffirming your sovereignty with health that is such a threat to the corporate media and the Democrat Party of that I'm going to not be obese, I'm going to eat clean, I'm going to not have processed foods, I'm going to eat whole foods, I'm going to balance out my micros and macros, I'm going to go for a walk every day, I'm going to get vitamin D, not take hormonal birth control.
Why is that met with such hostility?
Shouldn't that be met with my body, my choice?
Well, you would think so, but that only applies to killing babies.
The truth is that the sicker we are, the more riddled with brain fog we are, we can't think, we can't move.
They control us, and they know that.
So they are terrified, and this Atlantic article really proves corporate capture here.
They're getting a ton of money from the pharmaceutical industry, and so of course they're going to come out with an article slamming this nonpartisan panel advocating for children's health in this country.
It's truly incredible.
They said that we were trying to make Froot Loops boring again because we showed the example.
We had a bag of Froot Loops from outside of America and we showed Froot Loops from America with artificial dyes.
The other ones were colored with like fruit colorings and natural ways to have, you know, color in your cereal versus the artificial ones that cause cancer and behavioral issues and I guess we're making cereal boring, so be it.
If that means saving children's lives, then I guess we'll make cereal boring.
But it's like, who in the world would write a hit piece on that?
Why would you complain about that?
It just, it's really disturbing.
And you know, I don't know if the Atlantic hates children.
I don't know.
But I think that this article begs the question, if they do, they'll have to answer that.
And the Atlantic is owned by Lorene Pell Jobs, one of the top Democrat donors, worth $20 billion.
In pharma companies.
Yes.
It's a theme, Alex.
The more popular you get, you're going to be receiving these attacks where anything that makes you healthier, the powerful people hate.
What is that all about?
Well, because.
That's the thing about controlling us.
Remember, it was not the conservative right who was the first people to start talking about health and raw milk and, you know, not relying on the government for these types of things.
It was the crunchy granola liberals.
Yes, you're exactly right.
The original Whole Food Shopper was a liberal, crunchy Democrat mom.
It wasn't a conservative like you and I. So they're upset because finally we were like, oh, okay, this was actually one issue that you guys were right on.
They were right.
I'm fine with admitting that.
But now that we finally came around and said that, now they don't want anything to do with us.
It was also not conservatives that were anti-vax.
It was celebrity liberals.
It was people like Jim Carrey and, oh my gosh, Gosh, I'm forgetting her name.
The woman?
Yeah, the woman.
The blonde girl.
I'm blanking on her name.
But they were the ones that were going around mainstream media, going on Larry King Live and stuff like that and talking about the problems with the vaccination schedule exploding.
And so it wasn't conservatives.
It's just it's amazing how the tables turn.
And so if you're really paying attention, you have to say, even if you're like, I'm not comfortable saying I'm a conservative.
Jenny McCarthy.
Jenny McCarthy.
That's right.
And Jim Carrey.
If you're even if you're like, I'm not comfortable saying I'm a conservative.
Fine.
But you're like, you know, something isn't right.
Yeah, and I just, again, the whole movement that you guys are talking about is we want people to be happier and healthier, not fat, not overweight.
We want your blood work to be better.
Who could be against something like that unless you want a diseased and sick society?
Which they do.
Which they do.
They fully outed themselves.
They really, I mean, I'm just convinced, especially with this Atlantic article, these people want your children dead.
If they don't die in abortion, they want to die from vaccines or they want them so unbelievably sick from the food and pharma.
That then they'll be able to just be a drone that they can control for the rest of their entire adult life and just make money off of them.
Yeah, and it really is that.
I hope you guys understand that in order to control society, they want you depressed and sad.
If you were to eat healthy, if you eat unprocessed foods, if you eat meat, if you eat eggs, if you eat vegetables that are not processed through this nonsense, you're going to be a better person.
So, Max Lugavere sat next to me on the panel.
Genius Foods, great book.
Yes, yes.
And he's the podcast owner of The Genius Life, and he made a great, he said a great quote.
He said, if your grocery store has a health food section, what does that make the food in the rest of the store?
The answer is, it's not food.
Yeah, the genius foods are amazing, by the way.
It's like salmon, blueberries, dark chocolate, the 12 genius foods that you guys should follow.
Thank you so much, Alex Clark.
Culture apothecary.
Thank you.
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Joining us now is Byron Donalds, a great American, and Blake is also co-piloting throughout this.
Byron, welcome to the program.
Byron, I want your reaction, I know that you were talking to our team, about our voter registration success at Arizona State University.
Listen, I just think it's really cool and I think it's awesome.
You know, young people in our country, they need to just hear other viewpoints.
Charlie, your organization, being out there at college campuses, really does that.
I know the one clip that went viral is when you and Bravake were out in Pennsylvania and the one young lady came to the microphone and, you know, Charlie, I know you were kind of the tough cop, Bravake was the good cop, but that's all right.
But I think that kind of footage and that dialogue is what young people really need.
The voter registration drive out of ASU, man, that's phenomenal.
The response is phenomenal.
And I think that it bodes well, not just for this election cycle, but really for the future of the country.
Because we've left a lot of these, we left these universities, we didn't really pay attention to them politically, as Republicans and as conservatives.
So now that you have this movement starting again, to really help young people understand what's really at stake in these elections, and that there are other choices in these elections, that's only going to help the country really thrive and succeed.
Yeah, and talk about Byron.
You guys flipped Florida from a battleground state to now a deep red state.
We're trying to replicate some of that in Arizona.
What were some of the ingredients that you guys did to now where Florida, thankfully, is solidly going to be in Trump's column?
Well, first it started with voter registration drives.
This was 10 years in the making.
Our POF chairman at the time, Blaise Ngolia, who I served with when he was chairman, he and then Governor Rick Scott, they started the effort of doing voter registration drives nonstop.
We were down around 600,000 voters compared to the Democrats about a decade ago.
Now we have a 1 million Voter registration advantage over the Democrats.
So that's part of it.
The second part was in the state Capitol, really for the last 30 years, moving Florida from a blue state to a red state.
It's been about economic freedom.
It's been about academic freedom, school choice.
It's been about crime, low taxes, and really consistently pushing that agenda every legislative session in Tallahassee.
And that's how you saw Florida just shift really over about 20 years from a blue state to a purple state and then in the last 10 years moving to a red state.
Yeah, that's right.
And it's been a lot of work over a period of time.
And now Florida, it's nice, Byron.
I know that in some ways you'd love to have the president do more events in Florida, but it's nice that we don't have to worry about it.
And contrast that in 2020.
Remember, Byron?
We had a campaign in Iowa.
We had a campaign in Ohio.
Trump was doing rallies in Florida up until a week before the election.
Byron, we don't have to worry about this time around.
Yeah, I agree.
And look, in Florida and those other states, Iowa, we're going to take care of business in those states.
I mean, we're not leaving it behind.
But, you know, you do have the political operations that are very strong in those states.
From the Republican side of the aisle, and we're going to turn out voters like we do every single election.
It does help you when you're in a resource battle.
And look, I mean, I hate raising money and most politicians hate raising money.
But the reality is money is necessary to push your message.
And so when you're able to focus your resources into key battleground states like Pennsylvania,
like Wisconsin, like Arizona, Nevada as well, and many others, then you can marshal all your resources.
Like I hear from people around the country, they'll say, well, I'm not seeing the ads
or I'm not hearing this.
And I say, that's because your state is red.
We're focusing those resources.
But I was in Wisconsin last week, and I'll tell you, I just turned on the Michigan USC game
I was changing into my suit for the dinner and every ad was political.
And so you could tell that we were focusing our resources into Wisconsin like we should be, and that's happening in all the battleground states.
Yeah, it's funny.
I was recently in a red state, and they're like, you know, I can't get any Trump signs, and I don't see any Trump ads.
I said, guys, that's a good thing.
It means the Trump campaign's focusing their resources where it really matters.
So, Byron, coming up on Tuesday might be one of the most important days of this election, which is the vice presidential debate.
Typically, these don't get a ton of attention.
There might be one or two one-liners that people remember.
Interestingly, Joe Biden really helped Barack Obama back in 2012 when Barack Obama had a terrible first debate, and then Biden kind of bailed him out soon after.
J.D.
Vance is exceptional.
He's an all-star player.
What can we expect, and what is your advice going into Tuesday?
Well, I think this is actually going to be a very important debate, and the reason why is because we've heard nothing from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
And so the nation doesn't know who Tim Walz is.
I mean, people are still trying to figure out who Kamala Harris is, and she's not helping with these word salad interviews that are softballs, and she can't even do that right.
So what you're going to see, I think, from J.D.
is going to be a meticulous dissection of the disaster that has been the Kamala Harris-Joe Biden administration and how their plans are even worse than what they've done the last three and a half years.
And I'm not really sure what you're going to get out of Tim Walz.
This is really his first time on the big stage like this.
And because they've been hiding from the media, they're not prepared, in my view, To have to do this on the fly, not without being able to clip the interviews or clip your phrases the way you want.
He's going to be in a back and forth in a tough interview with J.D.
Vance in a tough situation.
Meanwhile, J.D., you've seen it, Charlie.
J.D.
has been all over the media nonstop for two months, really pushing the narrative.
Checking the media, pushing back on tough media, so I know he's more than prepared to step into Tuesday night's debate.
It'll really be a contrast in what voters are looking at right now who are undecided.
On one hand, you have Donald Trump and J.D.
Vance.
You know what they're going to do.
You know what they stand for.
Whether you agree, disagree, love, like, may not, may not like, is irrelevant.
You know what's coming.
versus Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, you have no idea what they really stand for, except
that Hollywood and the media just seem to like them.
I don't think that's going to be enough for them to be successful.
I think this debate is going to be watched.
It's going to be clipped a lot.
And the clipping of these debates, I think, matters even more than the actual live debate.
And it's going to be, in my view, a technical knockout by J.D.
Vance.
Yeah.
And Blake, do you have a thought on the upcoming VP debate?
I thought your takes, you know, we've discussed this a lot in private, and I think your takes are very good that you seize the advantage.
First of all, you don't talk about Walls, you just talk about Kamala.
You can ignore him if you want.
And you can seize the opportunity to make a lot of the arguments that Trump, just by disposition, usually doesn't make.
So you just talk about, you know, how he can really produce all of the specific numbers, like the polls say we're up.
8 points on the border.
We're up 9 points on the economy.
And this is why the American people think that way.
Vance is the right guy to make that very specific, practiced argument.
And he's an accessory to Trump in a really good way.
And that's why we think he was a good choice.
Yeah, and Byron, just to kind of couple on that, is that J.D.
should almost, he should continue the Harris-Trump debate, not make it a new debate.
Just prosecute the case against Harris and just basically say, OK, your boss, Tim Walz, your boss has failed at the border.
Your boss has failed with inflation.
And make it less about Walz and make it more about Kamala Harris, because people aren't really voting for V.P.s right now.
They're voting for presidential candidates.
No, I completely agree.
And there's so much room that J.D.
can operate in, because pick an issue in politics today, Kamala Harris has been a failure.
She's a failure because she was the tie-breaking vote.
J.D.
and I have had that conversation.
That's what I'm telling you.
I think he's going to be more than ready.
And even all of the work he's done with these tough interviews, he's going to be ready for the moderators as well.
And I believe he's going to end up fact-checking them in real time, which, you know, as a conservative, that's going to be a personal treat for me.
But at the end of the day, it is about the continued, to use the Kamala Harris phrase, the prosecution of her record and her disastrous record as vice president and what she would do if the American people gave her four more, gave her four years.
And so I think he's going to do very well Tuesday night.
So Byron, how are you going to be spending your time this closing season?
You're in a comfortable race, I assume, down in Collier County, Florida, so you have a lot of free time coming up.
Where are you going to be helping?
Where are you going to be focusing?
I'm going to be everywhere.
I will be at the debate on Tuesday.
I'll be in the spin room for President Trump and for J.D.
I'll be there doing that.
I'm everywhere, man.
I basically have cleaned out half my calendar, had to move or cancel some events that were pre-planned because everything is about being in these battleground states, helping President Trump become the 47th president.
I'll do some work for a couple of members of Congress who are in tough districts, go and help them in their areas.
But it's all hands on deck right now.
So, you know, my wife has given me a special dispensation of grace to be on the road for the next 39 days.
I know what that's all like right now.
We're all kind of in the final sprint mode.
Byron, it felt like this election has been years in the making.
Our elections are way too long in this country.
Let me be very clear.
This kind of multi-year presidential election thing is not good.
But we have to dig deep, dig deep and finish the last 39 days.
Final thoughts, Byron.
Listen, everybody, get out and vote.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter if you don't do your job.
Get out and vote.
I would stress, go vote early so the campaign can focus on those last minute voters and get them to the polls.
In some respects, this is a turnout election.
So if you've been frustrated for the last four years, get out and vote.
I think President Trump said, go get your uncle off the couch when he was in New York.
Get your uncle off the couch.
Make sure he gets the hell out and vote.
Don't play games with this election cycle.
Everything's on the line.
Those are my thoughts.
We can really win this.
I think the win's at our back, but people have to do their part now.
Get to the polls.
Cast your ballot.
Byron Donalds, thank you so much.
Excellent work as always.
Thank you.
Thanks, Charlie.
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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Just a reminder, we will be in Missoula, Montana on Monday.
I will be doing a Prove Me Wrong, and then I will also be doing an event with Tim Sheehy, who is running for the United States Senate against Jon Tester.
How do his chances look, by the way, Tim Sheehy?
Definitely.
I think it's probably our best shot outside of the West Virginia one, which is basically automatic.
It's a very Republican state.
It's one we should win.
We really should have gotten it six years ago, but he hung on.
That was too bad.
I wonder if I'm going to check the prediction markets.
That's what I always like to check when I'm not sure.
So we'll be there on Monday.
The event is called Save Big Sky, and if you guys want to attend, if you're in Montana, the event will be at tpaction.com slash big sky.
That is tpaction.com slash big sky with Tim Sheehy, Great American.
It is a 3.30 p.m.
start because that night is a debate that Tim has against Jon Tester.
So we're there to rally in support of Tim Sheehy.
We're doing a campus event during the day as well with voter registration.
So Monday is all Montana.
That's right.
It is Montana Day at Turning Point Action with Charlie Kirk Show.
And Blake, you have some info?
79% for us to win Montana Senate.
So good odds.
Good odds.
I'm on polymarket.com, which people should check out.
It's where all the people are, the degenerate people are doing all their gambling on politics.
They also show 2024 election.
Kamala 50, Trump 49.
Closest election we've seen in ages.
Here's the page I'm looking at.
I'll send that to you.
And it's basically entirely because of Pennsylvania.
They have Pennsylvania 50-50.
Where are the states?
Yeah, they have state-level markets.
There's a million different things people can gamble on.
84% for us to win Florida, that's a good one.
They have Arizona at 63%.
Yep, exactly.
I'll take that.
But even like Virginia, 12% chance Republicans get it.
This is people willing to put money where their mouth is.
Yeah, I find PolyMarket to be a little bit more accurate than PredictIt.
PredictIt is a foreign New Zealand thing.
And the big thing with PredictIt is because of the structure that it had to be allowed to operate when the government was kind of saying you're not allowed to do this.
Basically, they capped the size of the markets, and they're not as liquid as they could be.
So the reason PolyMarket is good for us watching it is it's highly liquid, and it can react very quickly to any news swings.
That's good to know.
I didn't know that.
PredictIt sort of incentivizes you to buy and hold, and the way they take fees and all of that.
It's very hard for things, especially on the extreme ends of markets, or when it's moving really quickly, for PredictIt to fully keep up with it.
Got it.
So the, uh, and poly market, it's essentially tied.
Yes.
And, and, and so the Senate race, just everyone understands what's Charlie, why I go to Montana and all this.
If Tim she, he wins, we win the Senate.
It's over.
Even if Kamala Harris becomes president, it's a 51 49.
Exactly.
Which is huge.
Everybody.
So we're spending all day on Monday.
It's our only trip to Montana.
We did one over the summer, but this is in cycle more in cycle than summer.
Assuming we don't screw up any of the races that we should be winning.
Yeah, like Rick Scott.
He should he should win Ted Cruz should win.
He's looking fine.
I'm just hoping.
Well, hopefully what's what's great is it's kind of like in twenty eighteen where Democrats
love the idea of flipping Texas.
So it's sort of their version of, you know, some type like every cycle there will be this
like no hope Republican who's running in like a big blue city and they'll go like viral
and get all these donations and you're like, well, they're not going to win, but they'll
get money.
Same thing here.
They love to throw money at the idea of flipping Texas because it's Texas.
It's you know, the Lone Star State.
It'd be like us flipping California.
Exactly.
And so they just love throwing money at it.
And then, you know, they did this to Wendy Davis.
They did this with Beto O'Rourke.
And I don't even know who's running this time, but it'll be great if they could just throw
Colin Allred, who's probably the best of the three.
It'd be great if they could just throw him like $50 million and he loses anyway.
Oh, they are.
They're spending $180 million on this.
That is so much money.
Isn't that insane?
And that's just one Senate race in Texas.
Anyway, that's a number I saw somewhere.
So yes, and then also Carrie Lake in Arizona, very important.
Bernie Moreno showing signs of strength in Ohio.
We're favored in that one, narrowly.
They have that as 51.49.
That would get us to 52.48.
That would be very good, especially because, you know, looking ahead.
Two years from now is a relatively tough map for us, so you want some give on that one.
Yeah, and presidential years sometimes can have.
And then McCormick might be able to pull something off with Casey in Pennsylvania.
Maybe, maybe, maybe.
Then also there is Rogers in Michigan, who's very close with Slotkin.
You have Hovda in Wisconsin.
You've got Sam Brown, who's probably pulling the worst of the group in Nevada with Jackie Rosen.
So, we got a lot of gains to make there.
So, Monday, make a plan to see us in Missoula, Montana, to help win the Senate.
