Who won, who lost, who cares? What really matters about Tuesday's debate is how it shifts the polling and, eventually, the final result. Rich Baris joins to discuss why, whatever the spin about Tuesday, surveys show the public souring on Kamala the more they get exposed to her. Scott Mitchell of Rasmussen describes the state of the electorate and the evidence his polling firm is seeing that independents have moved sharply to the right.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This is a phenomenal, phenomenal analysis episode.
We have two pollsters, Rich Beres, Big Data Poll, and Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen.
We talk about what we can expect to see, a bounce, any bounce, what's happening with independents, All of the polling analysis you could possibly want is crammed into this episode.
It's a must listen to.
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Buckle up, here we go.
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We are honored to be joined by Rich Beres, Big Data Poll, the People's Pundit, and I want to make sure I give Rich an opportunity to talk about the Public Polling Project.
Rich Beres, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show, brother.
Hey, thanks for having me as always, Andrew.
How are you doing today?
You know, I'm doing better than I thought I was going to be doing, Rich.
I'll be honest.
Last night, I was like, you know, Trump, I give it like a B, B minus maybe.
I've seen Trump way sharper, way more on the details, way more articulate defending his platform, his policies.
But I think somehow, Rich, the message got through.
You are an expert on this.
You're the one who's asking voters the questions across the country.
So you have a very keen insight.
What is your takeaway from what we saw last night?
All right, so first and foremost, I just want to say that he didn't need to do this at all.
He could have won the debate simply by saying, I already debated the legitimate nominee of the Democratic Party.
I'm not going to lend credibility to an illegitimate process.
She's a usurper.
And I will be standing up for the voters of nearly 15 million, nearly 15 million voters who cast their vote for Joe Biden, not her.
And he could have done that and walked away a champion.
He already had the momentum.
That being said, going into this, I mean, obviously it was going to be a three-on-one.
The head of ABC News is a friend of Kamala Harris, introduced her to her husband.
I mean, for people who don't know how incestuous this relationship is, So I just don't know why he's not taking the opportunities and a unique position, if you're going to debate, to reform this process because it badly needs reformation.
Badly.
It doesn't serve the voters.
It serves big pharma.
We heard more about the side effects of the latest Pfizer drug during the commercial break than we did about Kamala Harris's plan.
To tackle inflation.
And that ultimately is a big problem, Andrew.
That's a big problem.
Her major problem is really twofold.
Number one, the gang up that really occurred.
3v1 on Trump.
It's the same media who just did that, who just was lying, just got exposed, lying to the public about Joe Biden being senile.
So they really didn't anticipate that there could be a backfire there.
And then secondly, we're talking to voters now.
Reuters had a poll, not a poll, a focus group.
You're seeing all these focus groups on CNN.
I want to give it a little bit more time, but these undecided voters that were in our poll that we sent you, out of the 200 plus that we had asked whether they would watch the debate, nearly 88% said that they would, which I don't believe, but they said they would.
Uh, we asked them if we could contact them again and ask them about their thoughts on the debate.
That is looking very good for Donald Trump.
So far, you know, only about 50, uh, the, you know, 200 or so, um, have responded, but the margin on whether like, forget about who you think won.
That is not even important to me.
Did the debate after the debate, are you vote?
Are you, have you decided who you're going to vote for?
Yes.
Okay.
Who is it?
And honestly, the undecided number is very small now.
I mean, it was already not huge, but of those who said they were undecided, now it's even smaller and it's going like two to one for Donald Trump.
This is very bad if this turns out to be the actual data.
This is a very weird phenomenon that we have somebody that people basically say won the In the traditional sense, like how pundits and Washington talking heads gauge these things.
I would say she won the debate, you know, but what, what matters more than what people tell you who won, who lost is how it really moved the needle.
And there are two things that we're hearing from these people.
And I knew one of them immediately.
I kind of suspected that the other one may be a problem for her, but I was kind of waiting for confirmation from voters.
One is she came across, she got the same problem Hillary Clinton has.
Everyone said, Oh yeah, Hillary won the debate.
But you know what?
That woman is, you know, remember when Trump said, Hillary is such a nasty woman.
That was his nice way of saying what all the people at home were thinking is that this woman's a You know, look at her face.
It's not a very nice word.
Yeah, it's not a nice word.
But it's the only word you can say and people use your imagination.
It's the only word you could say that really captures what you know, really captures it fully.
And she had a look, we talk a lot with our with our expression and our body.
We talk more nonverbal communication than we do verbal.
And the nonverbal communication was atrocious.
I think I'm telling you, Andrew, they told her no cackling because the cackling is, it is very unpopular.
People don't like it when Kamala does that.
They think it's awful.
So I think they told her no cackling and that normally Kamala, when she disagrees with somebody,
she'll want to insult somebody or when she just outright thinks,
She'll laugh and she outright thinks like you're saying something wrong or incorrect.
She laughs and tries to like, uh, degrade you.
And anyone who works for her knows what I'm talking about.
All right.
This is what she does publicly.
If a, if a journalist asked a question that she doesn't like, or she doesn't want to have to answer, She just does that cackle and then kind of comes back with a smart-ass comment.
Pardon my French, you know, but that's what she does.
That's who she is.
And I think during debate prep, they told her, Kamala, no cackling.
And when she was holding the cackle back, we were getting these faces.
You know these, I mean, go back and re-watch the debate, folks.
I played a couple clips of it on my show today.
That is not what you do when you're trying to win people over, you know, and I think she came across like, you know, for instance, black men under the age of 45 were concerned that she was this, and I think she showed them that that is what she is, and or at least affirmed it.
And then the second problem is very simple, and we're hearing this a lot from people where We're thinking are like really, truly persuadable.
Most undecideds now are actually men or were, and the women that were left, Kamala needs to win.
It is because women were more undecided when Biden was still in the race.
That's why Biden gained with undecideds and it's been completely turned on its head now.
The undecideds are more male and they're breaking for Trump and he gains against Kamala.
So it's total reverse from what it was, you know, the dynamic of the race before with Biden.
And I think those men are going to go out the window, but those women that she needed to win over were really like kind of looking for an excuse not to vote for Donald Trump, but acknowledge that life was better under Donald Trump than it is now in the United States of America.
And it was less war, and it was more prosperity.
And they were like, you know, hoping beyond hope.
Like, give me a reason to vote for you.
But you need to tell us this.
You need to tell us that.
I need to know more about you.
New York Times poll even showcased this.
And they found the same thing we did.
There's a group that wants to vote for Kamala, but they don't know enough about her.
And they're wondering, why won't you do it now?
And you're promising us all this stuff.
You're in office.
He's senile.
You can do whatever you want.
I mean, this is what people are thinking.
And she did not deliver that.
Like last night, she put on a mediocre performance that won a debate.
She did not score some knockout.
Yes, she won, I guess on style, she was ineffective ultimately, because what she needed to do
is she needed to somehow put some distance between her and Joe Biden.
If she would have said something kind of shocking, being like, listen, I was the vice president.
You think I got everything done that I wanted to?
No, I didn't get everything I wanted.
This is my opportunity to get everything I want to get done.
If she would have said something that sort of out there, maybe it would have had an effect.
But ultimately, Rich, what we saw was independents tracking right along with Republicans.
I'm going to play this clip and get your reaction.
Play cut 120.
This will be one of the greatest mistakes in history for them to allow, and I think they probably did it because they think they're going to get votes, but it's not worth it because they're destroying the fabric of our country by what they've done.
There's never been anything done like this at all.
They've destroyed the fabric of our country.
Millions of people let in, and all over the world.
Crime is down all over the world except here.
Crime here is up and through the roof, despite their fraudulent statements that they made.
Crime in this country is through the roof, and we have a new form of crime.
It's called migrant crime, and it's happening at levels that nobody thought possible.
Rich, if you saw that, you know, for those listening, there's an independent bar and a Republican bar.
A couple of instances, the independents were more enthusiastic about what Trump was saying than the Republicans.
And, you know, later on in that commentary, the same analyst says, we haven't seen this phenomenon since 2016.
In 2020, it was all over the place like spaghetti lines.
And in 2016, we saw the same phenomenon.
We're going back to an old playbook.
It's history repeating itself.
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This phenomenon of independence tracking with Republicans, it's happening all over again, just like in 2016 when Trump won.
What is your polling saying when you're talking to these voters?
Is that the same sort of thing you were expecting to see?
I mean, I guess so.
I mean, hindsight's always 20-20.
But, you know, last month, not the poll we just did, but the one before that, we kind of saw like an inflate because there was a bad response bias in the data.
So we saw an inflation of independents or Democratic-leaning independents.
So independents are really when you ask them and push them, they lean more to the Democratic Party.
Now it's ironed out again back to closer to what we had seen for like the entire year plus.
Uh, so that we wouldn't expect Kamala Harris's entry into the race to change those fundamentals.
And I will say this, this is what she didn't do with those voters last night.
In response to that, she did not give an answer, Andrew, about like what she intended to do to stop that.
All right.
Because they basically are tracking, I mean, not basically, they are tracking right along with the Republicans, but instead she gave them a reason why not to vote for Trump over it.
Right?
So that's what she did all night long, and that's not what voters wanted to hear.
Listen to this from the Reuters panel, then I'm going to give you something from ours, okay?
This guy, Robert Wheeler, 48, security firm executive in Nevada, he was leaning to Harris.
He's a voter, like the woman I'm about to read you from ours, who when you pushed her would say, yeah, okay, I'm undecided, but I think I'm leaning to Harris.
Same thing with this guy.
Really?
But now he's voting for Trump.
And he said because there was no clarity.
It was just, this is his quote.
I felt like the whole debate was Kamala Harris telling me why not to vote for Donald Trump
instead of why she's the right candidate.
Same thing, 53 year old woman in California.
This is a woman who leans to the left.
She has voted for squishy rhino Republicans in the past, but mostly votes Democratic.
She's never voted for Trump, doesn't like Trump or MAGA and said that now she's leaning
This was the best she's ever seen Trump.
I'm like.
A little bit confused, I think.
But this is real.
We're all finding this.
And I want a couple of days to see the data and how it impacts overall surveys.
But very clearly, ma'am, when it comes to these undecideds who are watching this debate, this did not go well for her.
And I really think those two things are it.
Her mannerisms.
We've talked about this on your show before.
You've got to meet a presidential bar and you've got to have a presidential justification.
justification. Why you now for this moment, like why you?
Obama had one, Trump has one, and had one in 16. What the hell is her justification? It was her
job to lay that out and she didn't.
Well, it feels like, you know, again, we were all confused because on style points,
we could all see Trump can actually do a lot better than this. He can't.
And I actually think if he did a second debate, he can do a lot better.
Because the knockout punches are there.
She tipped her hand.
We know she's afraid of the fracking argument.
We know she's afraid of the fact that she's been in power for three and a half years.
She doesn't have an answer for that.
She doesn't know how she's different.
She doesn't have a why.
All of this stuff, she tipped her hand.
Trump could dunk on her in the next debate.
But what's fascinating is, and we've said this, and the campaign knows this, they have been hiding Kamala Harris for 50 plus days now.
Hiding her.
They knew they had to do at least one debate because they would look like cowards if they didn't.
But they won't let her do interviews.
They let her do one with CNN and Tim Waltz, which didn't go well for her.
They're keeping her out of press gaggles.
No unscripted moments.
She's an actress.
That is all she is, essentially.
She's a performance artist.
And the more the American people see of her, The less they like her.
And it kind of doesn't matter about the debates, about the finer points of the debate.
It doesn't matter about how she comes off, or the one-liners, or the zingers.
We just don't like what we see.
It's kind of almost that simple, Rich.
And the campaign, I think, knew this because they've been hiding her from us.
She's not a likable person.
Have we all forgotten that she was the most unpopular vice president in history?
She beat Dan Quayle with unpopularity, folks.
I mean, now this new resurgence of popularity isn't real.
It's being pushed by a bogus media narrative.
They did it once before with her, and then she collapsed in the Democratic primary.
They're hiding her because they're afraid of this repeating history, history repeating itself with her.
The more they see her, the more they don't like her.
I agree, man.
I think she reminded people last night why They didn't like her to begin with.
I really do.
Hillary did the same thing.
Remember, she bailed on the Democratic primary because the more she was out there talking, the worse her numbers got.
And eventually Democrat voters cast her aside, as Trump would say, like a dog.
Maybe this is just how she is.
She comes out with a big bang, she gets a big She looks the part, she checks the boxes, and then she opens her mouth and people start realizing there's nothing there.
Yeah, so what we're basically trying to do, Andrew, is change how this stuff is done.
Gone are the days of the Trump plus ones, Biden plus ones.
In order to keep them honest, we have to be transparent like anything else in government, business, and in life.
Sunlight is the best disinfectant from this garbage disease in the polling industry we've been Dealing with.
So what it is, is it's basically funded by viewers, listeners, people who, you know, see it shared by their friends and whatnot.
And they can go and fund the Rust Belt poll, which is the big three.
Now it was the big six, but might as well be the big three.
And the national poll that we do.
And this way, I mean, my incentive is just to be right.
Because then people won't fund it if I'm wrong.
Right?
And it was very successful in 2020.
I was a little concerned.
People have less money now than they did in 2020 that it wouldn't fund, but so far we're doing really well and I'd like to very much keep up that momentum.
If they go to bigdatapoll.com or on my locals page where it says support our polls, a little hand waving, they can learn more about it and they can definitely just go to bigdatapoll.com and they'll see it in the menu.
They can click on it and check it out.
Support it, share it far and wide, help it stay successful, and we'll try to keep them honest.
I love that, Rich.
It's more important now to support the good guys than ever, especially when you see the media bias like we did in that debate last night where it was three on one.
Rich, I want to play a clip here from one of these focus groups that we saw last night.
There's one clip in particular that I'm looking for.
Where it was, I think, so emblematic of what we saw last night where it was like, you know, yeah, he was basically exaggerating some things, but then this other lady says, you know, it really didn't matter.
Let's go ahead and play Cut 100.
Trump's say about abortion rights.
Absolutely, because he was intentionally sensationalizing and giving false information, essentially disinformation.
Is that an issue that motivates the two of you?
Is that going to make you want to vote for perhaps Kamala Harris, Vice President Harris?
It's an important factor.
There's just so many other things that concern me more.
I can't say that that's my top.
That's not my top.
How perfectly emblematic of what happened last night in the minds of voters.
Rich Beres.
Yeah, I think that, you know, the late, great Rush Limbaugh used to have this phenomenon of like MAGA and Trump's appeal attitudinally and policy-wise.
He used to have it down pretty well.
You know, Andrew, he did.
And he would say, you know, that voters don't take Trump literal like that, but they take what he's talking about seriously.
Right?
And it doesn't matter if he gets the number of immigrants wrong, right?
It doesn't matter if he gets a specific detail about whether or not Haitians fried up a cat or a dog wrong, right?
It's like the policy he's talking about is real and they take it seriously.
And since he's the only one addressing it and the only one who seems concerned about it, all of those little things that the media gets hung up on don't matter.
They just don't matter.
When they start taking this stuff seriously and they start addressing and acknowledging even the grievances that people have, you know, like Springfield, Ohio, nobody voted for that.
Andrew, nobody voted for that.
It's a town of 50,000 residents.
Nobody voted for 20,000 imported Asians.
Nobody asked their permission.
And he's the only one who seems to care.
And until they start addressing those grievances and acknowledging that those are legitimate grievances, then they're going to lose to guys like Trump.
It's that simple.
You know, I mean, and they get so hung up on.
It's so well said, Rich.
Rich, I didn't get nearly enough time with you today.
I could have done the whole hour with you, Rich.
Tell people where they can watch your show.
It's Monday, Wednesday, Friday, correct?
Tell people where they can follow you.
Yeah, the best place again is on Locals, peoplespundit.locals.com.
And we're on YouTube, we're on Rumble, we're basically a getter, we are on getter too, but if you go to Locals, sign up, become a member, you'll see it all.
What we're doing with the polling, actually we're going to run a nationwide voter file analysis, which we have not done this election cycle yet.
Machine learning, AI, it's cool.
If you're on Locals, you'll check it out, you'll get it, you'll see it.
So definitely peoplespundit.locals.com.
Well done, Rich.
Excellent as always, my friend.
Thank you for making the time and we'll talk to you soon because we're going to want to know how the numbers settle out in the days that come.
So be well, Rich.
We'll talk to you soon.
Anytime, my friend.
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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We have Mark Mitchell, chief pollster of Rasmussen, on with us.
Mark, give us the big picture takeaway.
I feel like there's a little bit of, you know, how would you say it?
We were expecting maybe a little bit more of a 50-50, but the morning after, it looks like Trump really took this thing, and I think that's surprising a ton of people, even in conservative circles.
Mark, your take.
Really hard to predict what's going to happen with these kind of events.
To be honest, you know, Biden and Trump have changed electoral politics in a way that I don't think everybody's fully grasped yet.
I mean, the fact that, like, the people voting for Trump have seen him on Everything's more at him than any other candidate.
And then also with the amount of mass formation psychosis going on in the left, how rapidly
that Kamala Harris went from the worst VP in history to literally the ascendant coming
of Barack Obama in female form.
It's really crazy.
And even just the expansion of the electorate in 2020 gets us to a point where I think there's less undecided voters than really anybody's willing or able to come to terms with.
I think going into this debate, though, the way that we kind of looked at it is people gave Trump and Kamala Harris about even odds, which was better for her than Biden.
Only 37% of people expected Biden to win.
But in our opinion, the momentum and narrative has been slipping through their fingers like sand after this DNC that didn't give them the historic bounce.
That's back when you had undecided voters, when you get like these massive upper single digit bounces for like Clinton and Biden.
She got like maybe two points in our polling.
And then all of a sudden over the weekend, the New York Times and Nate Silver independently came out and like stuck a shiv In the Kamala Harris campaign, they destroyed her momentum in the press by saying the New York Times came out and agreed with us.
That Donald Trump is winning the popular vote by one point.
We have the exact same results, us and the New York Times.
And so it's awfully hard to ignore Rasmussen reports and all of the polls we put out, like four times more polls than the New York Times, when we say the same thing.
So everything we've been saying going into this debate is that in our polling, Trump has always been winning the national popular vote.
Now, a major mainstream media outlet came out and validated our data And if it's true and he's winning the national popular vote, I think even the swing states start to matter less.
And so what you have is between now and where we're at, and November, what are all the things that could move their numbers aside from like another assassination attempt, or they're not even going to be able to jail Trump anymore.
And so we said going into it, such a huge pressure for her to perform in a way that she never has yet.
She really needs an unequivocal win to show that she'll be a better president than Donald Trump.
And I think looking at last night, she, you know, people have said she'd win.
I think the mainstream media doesn't have their hearts in it.
It doesn't look like a win.
And if anybody wins, I think it's independent media.
Well, and you bring up a really good point.
I mean, the calculus has changed in our modern era because of social media, because of X and because of clipping.
There's almost like a post-debate debate, right?
And everything that I'm seeing from the punditry class at CNN and others is that Kamala Harris had this dazzling performance.
And I'm even willing to concede that she won on style points.
Fine.
She was more rehearsed, more polished, but it was You've got this Reuters article that says 6 out of 10 undecideds are now either voting for Trump or leaning Trump, and then you've got panelists after panelists after panelists that somehow still says, yeah, but I think I'm going to go with Trump.
What is that about?
Why are we so able to see that maybe Kamala won the style points but lost on substance?
What is happening with these focus groups?
I would caution people to avoid the information coming out of And this is like, I think Michael Crichton coined the concept, but basically like when you read the newspaper and you see an article you know something about and you are like, Oh, they're lying.
And then you go to a topic you don't know anything about.
And you're like, Oh, they're telling me the truth.
Uh, mainstream media pollsters and the mainstream media have proven themselves time and time again, again, to be liars all the time.
No, but many times.
And all of those panelists, We're ostensibly selected by somebody adjacent to those organizations.
It is not a scientific sample size.
It's like 12 schmoes they found.
And again, like I'm saying, I don't even know like how many undecided voters there are out there, but somehow they were able to come up with a completely random sample of those people that reflect the cross section of the undecided in America.
It's impossible, and it's great for, like you said, the post-debate debate, right?
They're trying to form a narrative about who won, but I think in reality, the Trump people will find something that they like.
The Harris people, you know, the Trump people were looking for zingers to clip and put on Twitter, like you were talking about, right?
Right.
And when they look at Kamala Harris, I think very few of them will objectively say, oh, she answered that well because they were probably put off by all the contrived faces she was making.
And on the left, they're getting exactly what they want to, which is the mainstream media telling them that she is a brilliant statesman and policy genius.
And that's what's happening.
And every time they look at Trump talk, they just Yeah.
So if this is the kind of debate we're at, quite frankly, I think it's a wash.
And again, people look at the betting markets.
I don't think the betting markets are accurate, but I think they're responsive.
And unfortunately for us, we haven't even put specific post-debate questions into the field yet.
They're not even going to go into the field until Sunday night.
We're not going to get those back until middle, late next week.
I also think people should be suspicious about mainstream media-operated snap polls as well.
And also in the matchup numbers, we're not going to get even our first night of post-debate matchup numbers till tomorrow.
It'll only be one night of data.
So these things take time to figure out.
And in the grand scheme of things, I suspect we're going to see basically no movement, right?
Yeah.
is almost baked in, right?
Like people expected the press to be hostile.
People expected Trump to do what Trump does in debates.
And people expected her to have underhanded tactics and lie a lot and not get fact-checked.
One of the main storylines from last night was certainly that David Murr,
or however you say his name, and ABC as a whole were completely
in the tank for Kamala Harris.
I mean, we went through it as a team this morning, and it was like Kamala lied about the fact that she supports gun compensation.
She said she didn't.
Well, in 2019, there's a clip of her saying, yeah, I support mandatory buybacks.
She said that nowhere in America can you do late-term abortions.
Yeah.
ABC actually interjected and fact-checked Trump on that.
Well, it turns out in at least eight states and District of Columbia, you can do late-term abortions.
Kamala said that Trump's policy is to ban IVF. He's been a leader on IVF.
Kamala said that Trump referred to neo-Nazis as very fine people. Debunked as a hoax many times over.
Bloodbath hoax. Trump was talking about the economy.
You know, so she says she didn't wanna ban fracking.
Well, she is on the record of saying she very much wants to ban fracking.
She tried to pin 2020, Project 2025 to him.
He's come out and distanced himself from that.
It was done by Heritage, not by Trump.
She said that officers were murdered on January 6th, Capitol Police officers.
There was approximately zero officers that were killed on January 6th, only Ashley Babbitt.
CNN came out saying that Kamala Harris only lied once and Trump lied 33 times, according to CNN.
And I just think to your point, nobody's buying it anymore.
I don't know what changed in the national consciousness, but people do not buy it.
It doesn't move the needle.
Mark.
Yeah, I talked about this on Alex Jones last night.
I think it's a very important thing.
And Americans are absolutely insane right now in a way that is just immeasurable.
We have the highest number of voters right now who think a civil war is likely in the next five years.
And if you ask Republicans who the country's biggest enemy are, number one, they say China, number two, Democrats.
And with the Democrats, it's Russia and Republicans.
But basically to keep Biden in power, The Democrat regime burned trust in almost every institutional asset we have in America.
Nobody trusts the health industry anymore.
People don't trust the media.
60% of them think the media is the enemy of the people.
You know, the Fed's direction, like literally everything nobody trusts anymore.
And I think what you're seeing in a deeper way is almost this like, spiritual political battle.
Because when you're talking about all those lies that Kamala Harris spewed, and I think objective thinkers and rational people could look at them and call them lies.
If you think about them, like religious quasi religious catechisms, I think it makes A lot more sense.
And we've definitely gone into the religious aspect.
Trump is winning by 30 points with evangelical Christians, but Kamala Harris is winning by even more than among Democrats with atheists.
But it isn't just religion, it's this aspect of reality.
And I think that's one of the reasons that our information, again, when people follow us, and I feel the pull for our content, It's because they seem like they're hungry for information and want to figure out how to consume it rationally and engage with it in discussion and dialogue.
Like an actual debate.
Like what Charlie Kirk is doing on college campuses right now.
It's almost like our country has lost its ability to debate.
And that's how you get cancel culture.
That's how you get Biden strong approvers wanting to put the unvaccinated in camps and that's how you get this just absolute disagreement and it's like you have the regime mentality who wants to maintain some kind of psychological conformity as like in some kind of like cultist behavior to be frank and honest
And I see it even on my Twitter feed, like the people that like our polling will ask me questions, they'll point out flaws that we'll have an engaging discussion.
The trolls that come here, the blue anons that come to my Twitter feed, it's literally just two logical fallacies over and over again, right?
It's ad hominem attacks.
And it's like answer criticism with criticism.
That's all they got.
That's all they if they can't Put their head in the sand to ignore our data.
But the problem for them is we agree with the New York Times.
Trump is winning the national popular vote.
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Mark, one of the phenomenons that we've seen in the post-debate analysis is that independents are tracking very closely with Republicans, especially on immigration and inflation, the economy.
Is this what you're seeing in your numbers?
Do you expect to see whatever's left of that undecided independent vote break for Trump, or is it not going to matter?
In my opinion, independent doesn't always necessarily mean undecided, to be honest with you.
Listen, the Democrats have a brand advantage.
Often it's cool to call yourself Democrats, and you'll have people that are Democrat and vote, you know, Trump.
And then you also have this trend over the last three or four years of people fleeing the Republican Party and calling themselves independents because they just don't think, you know, it's a party that's serving their interests.
So really hard to say.
But what I would say is that the independents They're the ones that are going to decide this election because in our numbers, the biggest move in all of them from 2020 has been the independence went for Biden, like upper double digits in our polls in 2020.
And now it's a Trump, solid Trump win every single poll we've had in the last, like really Afghanistan woke him up and turned him super, super conservative.
It got to the point where the swing in independence was so big that we had to reevaluate and put additional methodology in.
To make our numbers less pro-Trump.
Right now, I mean, we are getting like a 10, 15 point Trump lead among independents.
So we're waiting to the 2020 recall vote, which a lot of people aren't.
We don't need to get into all the details.
But I get a lot of Trump supporters and I have to weight them down in order to get to what I think is an accurate representation of where the race is now.
And even despite that, again, we have Trump plus one.
If we're wrong, Kamala Harris has a blowout and for some reason for the first time in a national presidential cycle we're off more than like a point and a half.
It will be because something changed in my methodology that made my independents look too conservative.
But they have their eyes open about all of this.
The independents only gave Trump about a 15 point favorability advantage going into the first debate with Biden.
After Biden's failure, they said like 63% to 10 that Trump won that debate.
So I'm expecting to see something similar about them and we'll see how they break.
But they've been more and more conservative on every issue that matters.
They trust Republicans and Trump 15 to 20 points more on like the economy and the border.
And quite frankly, they like don't seem to care about abortion that much and all of the other Like, key Democrat issues.
Now, there are a huge mix of people in there.
There's definitely TDS folks.
There's definitely single-issue abortion voters.
But in our latest matchup, we had independents going six points to Donald Trump, and I think the number without waiting to the recall vote was like 10 or 11 points.
That's one of the things that separates us from the people like ABC News, which are sampling massive Trump deranged populations and getting independents going harassed by upper single digits.
So break that down for what that means, and I think that's really good news if you're a Trump supporter.
Arizona has more registered independents than Republicans or Democrats.
So I love hearing that for Arizona.
What does that mean in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, especially the blue wall states?
Yeah, a lot of them are trending more and more independent as well.
And quite frankly, it makes the polling harder if your target's moving every four years, which it is.
But those people tend to be Kitchen table issue voters that have less loyalty to party, which again, is why in every single swing state, we show Trump doing much better than the Republican party and even the Republican senatorial candidates.
But that's the things like fracking, the things like jobs and inflation matter to those people.
And that's how you get over the last four years, a 20 point shift towards Trump In the independents.
So they definitely shifted towards Trump, again, unlike, you know, whatever's going on in the ABC News polling.
It's just a question of how much.
And you gotta wait and see.
And not only is it impossible to predict exactly what the political makeup of the independents is, but even how big they'll turn out, right?
Because we've been frequently surprised by the sudden and drastic increases in mysterious turnout, really going back all the way to 2018.
But again, at this point in time, like, look, Pennsylvania is the must-win state.
We had it as a statistical tie in numbers collected in the middle of the DNC, which is six points better than Trump was doing just four years ago in our polling.
And we only shifted the weighting like three points more Republican.
Yeah.
Yeah.
We got to wrap it up here, but excellent analysis as always.
Everybody check out Rasmussen, the polling and also Mark, follow him on Twitter, a must follow.
Thank you for your analysis and we'll talk to you again soon.
